Monday, September 12, 2022

Now from the South Towards Lyman

The Ukrainians have now crossed the Seversky Donets river in force and are attacking from Slavyansk in the direction of Lyman. Reports are that they have already reached the outskirts of Lyman as of 5pm local time. If Lyman should fall quickly, it will threaten Russians entire position in the LPR.


After the units left Izyum and the surrounding area, units of the Russian forces took up defensive positions on the left bank of the Oskol River. The units of the RF Armed Forces continue to hold the settlements of Studenok and Oskol.

The most difficult situation is developing in the vicinity of Liman, near which for three days in a row the battles of a small garrison of the RF Armed Forces and the NM of the LPR with superior enemy forces have continued.

The units of the allied forces have already repulsed several attacks, but the Armed Forces of Ukraine do not reduce the onslaught. Artillery strikes are carried out on advancing enemy units.

In the area of ​​the village of Zakotnoe , Ukrainian formations were able to establish a crossing over the shallow Seversky Donets and transfer equipment to reach Yampol, envelop and storm the Liman from the east.

The goal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is to gain a foothold on the right bank of the Seversky Donets in order to develop an offensive towards Kremennaya in the LPR.

Sunday, September 11, 2022

The Rout is Complete


But the Russians are now attacking infrastructure targets and the Ukrainian power grid.

Around 20:00, the RF Armed Forces launched rocket attacks on the largest thermal power plants in eastern and central Ukraine:

Kharkiv CHP-5 and Zmiev CHP in Kharkiv region,➖Pavlograd CHPP-3 in the Dnipropetrovsk region,

Kremenchug thermal power plant in the Poltava region.

Launches were carried out from the waters of the Black and Caspian Seas.

As of 13.00 Local Time - September 11, 2022

At the moment, Russian units continue to reconfigure the front in the Kharkov direction . The withdrawal of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation began from the line of Udy - Cossack Lopan - Bolshie Passages 


On the fifth day of the offensive in the Kharkiv region, the AFU opened another front. After forcing the Siversky Donets near Raihorodok , the AFU attempted to take Krasnyi Lyman and Yampil' by storm.

Russian units repulsed an attack on the outskirts of Krasniy Lyman and stopped the enemy at the line of Staryi Karavan - Brusivka - Dibrova .

The Russian Armed Forces command decided to spare the lives of the personnel of the Izyum grouping of Russian troops. By mid-day, the bulk of the Russian troops left the Izyum staging point and withdrew behind the Oskil River .

North of Kupyansk , the Russian Armed Forces failed to stabilize the front. The AFU continued to advance from both Kupyansk and the Pechenizs'ke Reservoir . By mid-day, Velykyi Burluk was taken.

The Russian Armed Forces command made a similar decision to withdraw the troops holding the defenses in Kupyansk itself and to the north of it. Russian units gradually withdrew to Vovchansk , ensuring the evacuation of refugees.

The intent of the Russian Armed Forces command is to attempt to organize a stable line of defense along the Oskil-Siversky Donets River . At the same time, units withdrawn from Balakliya, Kupyansk and Izyum are regrouped and reserves are brought in.

The pro-Russian population is fleeing to Russian territory, both from Kharkiv Region and the LPR northern regions. Filtration detachments enter settlements occupied by the AFU. Their goal is to eliminate pro-Russian activists and accustom people of being afraid to support Russia under pain of death. Dark times have come to the lost territories of the Kharkiv region.

The RF Armed Forces maintain a limited presence, covering columns with refugees who are leaving for the territory of the Russian Federation. To the east of the Seversky Donets, separate mobile groups of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have so far reached the Khotomlya-Bolshoi Burluk line . To the north, Russian units continue to evacuate civilians.

Due to the lack of coordination between the Ukrainian units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the Armed Forces of Ukraine carried out shelling in Bolshoi Burluk, although only civilians remained in the settlement itself.

The RF Armed Forces continue to level the front along the Oskol River , pulling reinforcements to the left bank. In the area of ​​the village of Oskol , detachments of 60 OMSB "Veterans" hold the road, ensuring the exit of individual groups of refugees.

In the area of ​​the village of Senkovo , army aviation of the RF Armed Forces destroyed a pontoon crossing of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Forces of Ukraine are starting to remove their minefields near Vuhledar: this is a signal for the preparation of a Ukrainian offensive in the direction. Indeed, a trainload of nearly 150 pieces of military equipment recently arrived at the station in Pokrovsk in the west of the Donetsk region. They plan to use them to strike both near Ugledar and from Seversk to Kremennaya.

Theater Summaries ----->

Kharkov

Armed Forces of the Russian Federation were withdrawn from a significant part of the liberated territories of the Kharkov region to save the lives of personnel and avoid losses.

At the moment, units of the RF Armed Forces are on the defensive along the eastern bank of the Oskol River. Separate maneuver groups of the Armed Forces of Ukraine allegedly reach the Russian border, but in fact the confirmed zone of conditional control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine remains until the Khotomlya -Bolshoi Burluk line .

Russian troops are trying to stabilize the front line, ensuring the exit of refugees.

Limansky

Armed Forces of Ukraine crossed the Seversky Donets from Raygorodok and tried to take Liman with a swoop . Despite the withdrawal of units of the Ministry of Emergency Situations and the Ministry of Internal Affairs, Russian units continue to maintain control over Liman and inflict fire damage on the enemy, holding him back at the Stary Karavan-Dibrova-Ozernoye line .

Luhansk

Information warfare bodies spread fakes about the occupation of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the settlements of Svatovo, Kremennaya, Lisichansk and Severodonetsk. All settlements are under the control of allied forces.

Soledar

the Armed Forces of Ukraine are trying to push through the defense of the RF Armed Forces and units of the NM of the LPR in the area of ​​the settlement. Controversial . The front line remains the same, there are no changes, all attacks are repulsed.

There are so far unconfirmed reports of the advance of the Wagner PMC and the occupation of Mayorskaya station by allied forces.

Donetsk

The units of the NM of the DPR completed a complete sweep of the so-called "anthill" in the area of ​​the runway of the Donetsk airport .

Vuhledar

Armed Forces of Ukraine are concentrating forces in Ugledar and preparing for an attempt to break through the Russian defensive orders. In general, this may be an attempt to anticipate the pulling together of Russian reserves and the shock fist of 3 AK in this direction. In any case, a powerful grouping has been created by the RF Armed Forces.

Zaporizhia

Armed Forces of Ukraine are concentrating reserves in the Orekhov region and are preparing for an attack on Rabotino and Nesteryanka . On the part of the RF Armed Forces, the concentration of Russian troops in the area has been increased by about three times.

Saturday, September 10, 2022

The Collapse of Russian Defenses in the Izyum Theater Continues

At the moment, the situation in the north-east of the Kharkiv region continues to deteriorate.
  


▪️Against the background of the withdrawal of units of the RF Armed Forces, the mobile tactical groups of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reached Bolshoy Burluk almost unhindered .

▪️From the Pechenezh reservoir , the Armed Forces of Ukraine managed to move north to Khotomli . DRGs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine calmly wandered along the other side at the beginning of summer, until the RF Armed Forces cleared the surrounding forests. Against the background of the withdrawal of troops, sending a detachment on duty to raise the flag is not so difficult.

▪️In Izyum , separate units of the 60th OMSB "Veterans" hold the defense . The situation to the south of it also remains in question. But at the northern entrance to the city there are already enemy units.

▪️Local sources report a local probing of the defense of the RF Armed Forces in Liptsy north of Kharkov .

Thursday, September 8, 2022

Ukrainian Counter Offensive in Kharkov - Izyum Theater Situation - Sept 8th

The weakly held Russian lines in the Izyum bridgehead seem to be collapsing under the weight of the Ukrainian counter-offensive. Russia has failed to destroy the bridges in the Ukrainian rear. The Ukrainians are bringing up reserves from the Kherson region to exploit the breaches.  Russian supply lines are being cut, and this threatens the entire Izyum bridgehead. The Russian retreats are shifting from tactical to general. Reported Russian equipment losses, either destroyed or abandoned, is very high. Russian reserves are being brought up as quickly as possible.

IMO the situation is becoming dire for the Russian position in this region. Regardless of the propaganda mantras that have been telling us for months that the Ukrainian forces are destroyed, that they no longer have means, motivation, armor, command, ammunition, etc. de facto they have demonstrated that on the one hand they have been underestimated and that on the other hand the forces committed by Russia which were not sufficient to break them quickly are today vulnerable to the point of motivating limited attacks against them. 

We can clearly see here that the prolongation of the conflict has reached a tipping point where the time taken in the conduct of Russian operations, which has allowed them to save their forces and to carry out a certain strategy of attrition, has also become profitable for the Ukrainians who were able to reconstitute enough trained forces to resume an operative initiative here and there.

▪️By the evening of the third day of the Ukrainian offensive in the Kharkov region, Russian units left Balakleya. Russian Armed Forces and Rosgvardia fighters left the town in an orderly manner through a corridor on the eastern outskirts [ GB: Reserves, it turns out, according to various reports, were earlier brought to Balakleya to punch through the corridor and to facilitate the withdrawal of the operationally encircled Russian units, not to support a battle for the control of the city. ]

▪️After capturing Volkhov Yar, Ukrainian forces advanced towards Shevchenkovo, where a part of the Ukrainian forces' grouping blockaded the settlement, while other units continued towards Kupyansk.

▪️Late in the day, Ukrainian forces split up: some units reached the Kupyansk-Shevchenkovo ​​highway near the village of Grushevka, occupying the settlement and starting preparations for a further assault on Kupyansk.

▪️Another part of the enemy grouping made a dash to the east, engaging in fighting near the village of Senkovo ​​on the bank of the Oskol River. There is a bridge in the village, the seizure of which will make it possible to cut off Izyum's supply from the Kupyansk side.

▪️Southeast of Balakleya, the Ukrainian army is attempting to advance towards Veseloye and Kunya, but enemy units were repulsed near Zaliman. Veseloye is a key transport interchange providing a link to Izyum.

▪️To the north of Slavyansk, the Ukrainian command plans to launch an offensive against Russian forces in Izyum in order to constrain their actions and prevent them from maneuvering. Russian artillery and aviation are working intensively through the surrounding forests.

Saturday, September 3, 2022

Russia/Ukraine War Update - September 4th, 2022 (Never interrupt an enemy making a mistake...)

Report on the Ukrainian Counter-Offensive around Kherson

On August 24 the British prime minister Boris Johnson visited Kiev:

In comments made next to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the Mariyinsky Palace, Johnson said Ukraine “can and will win this war." Johnson's visit was the start signal for the long announced Ukrainian 'counteroffensive' towards Kherson.

In early April Johnson had called on and visited Kiev to stop well developed peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine:

“Russian and Ukrainian negotiators appeared to have tentatively agreed on the outlines of a negotiated interim settlement,” wrote Fiona Hill and Angela Stent. “Russia would withdraw to its position on February 23, when it controlled part of the Donbas region and all of Crimea, and in exchange, Ukraine would promise not to seek NATO membership and instead receive security guarantees from a number of countries.”

The news highlights the impact of former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s efforts to stop negotiations, as journalist Branko Marcetic noted on Twitter. The decision to scuttle the deal coincided with Johnson’s April visit to Kyiv, during which he reportedly urged Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to break off talks with Russia for two key reasons: Putin cannot be negotiated with, and the West isn’t ready for the war to end.

Over the last months Britain has trained several thousands of Ukrainian troops and their officers. Together with Ukrainian special forces Britain's MI-6 secret service planned a special operation for Ukraine to regain control over the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant on the south side of the Kakhovka Dnieper reservoir. This was designed to coincide with a visit of IAEA inspectors, long held up by Ukraine, to visit the ZNPP.

The Kherson offensive started on August 30 on five axes. It was destined to fail. Three of these attempts to gain ground held by Russian troops failed. One axis was stopped after taking a few small villages of no strategic value. The only 'successful' attack was across the Inhulet river near Andriivka in the direction of the dam and river crossing that closes off the Kakhovka Dnieper reservoir.

The plan was crazy to begin with. The whole area is flat open steppe. The troops would have had to created a 50 kilometer (30 miles) long corridor through open hostile land. The towns on the way are mostly one or two street agricultural mini-villages with one story homes that offer little protection. The Ukrainian forces have no air defense or air attack capability to cover advancing troops. Its artillery capabilities are a tenth of what the Russian military can provide in the area.

Video's posted to telegram show how flat the open step is and how the Ukrainian troops have nowhere to hide from Russian artillery and heavy fire:

Video

Reportedly the Ukrainian military command was against this mission. But the Ukrainian political leadership, the Zelenski regime, ordered it to proceed. It was under political pressure from its foreign supporters to show at least some success.

The attack was launched on August 30. The Ukrainian military created three river crossings over the Inhulet near Andriivka. But something was wrong? Why didn't the Russian airforce or artillery immediately destroy those crossings?

It was obvious that this was a trap.

In a CNN piece, co-written by the notorious 'intelligence' stenographer Natasha Bertrand, the U.S. military distanced itself from the upcoming catastrophe:

In the buildup to the current Ukrainian counteroffensive, the US urged Kyiv to keep the operation limited in both its objectives and its geography to avoid getting overextended and bogged down on multiple fronts, multiple US and western officials and Ukrainian sources tell CNN.

Those discussions involved engaging in "war-gaming" with Kyiv, the sources said -- analytical exercises that were intended to help the Ukrainian forces understand what force levels they would need to muster to be successful in different scenarios. The Ukrainians were initially considering a broader counteroffensive, but narrowed their mission to the south, in the Kherson region, in recent weeks, US and Ukrainian officials said.

Officials say they believe there is now increased parity between the Ukrainian and Russian militaries. But western officials have been hesitant to label the nascent Ukrainian operation - which appeared to begin on Monday in the southern province of Kherson - a true "counteroffensive." How successful Ukraine is likely to be in regaining lost territory remains an open question, sources familiar with the latest intelligence tell CNN.

For three days the Ukrainian military sent battalion after battalion into the salient. These were good professional troops trained by Britain. They were equipped with modernized Polish T-72 tanks and up-armored Dutch Infantry Fighting Vehicles (YPR-765 IFV). But while these forces were able to create a deeper salient it would soon go very much against them.

As 'B' wrote on September 1:

The Ukrainian Kherson offensive continues despite extremely heavy losses. The Rybar map shows one of the axes where the Ukrainian army still tries to press forward after having been rooted from Bruskyns'ke. The area is flat open steppe with no coverage for troops to hide. The Russian side is by far superior in artillery and has air supremacy. Whoever ordered the Ukrainians to press this suicidal campaign under these circumstance is guilty of murder and should go to prison for the rest of his life.

On September 1, the very day the IAEA delegation was to arrive, the Ukrainian side made a daring attack to seize the ZNPP. But the Russian side had been warned. The two waves of Ukrainian special forces, also trained by Britain, were killed while crossing the reservoir or were running into ambushes as soon as they had landed. Must ended up dead. The IAEA inspection proceeded as planned.

UN Secretary General's spokesperson Stephane Dujarric said on Thursday:

"We are glad that the Russian Federation did all to keep our inspectors safe"!

On the third day of the offensive the bridges across the Inhulet river where still intact. The Russian tactic was obvious. A scheme that it had used previously on the Karkiv front:

Will Schryver @imetatronink - 22:28 UTC · Sep 2, 2022

The truth of the Kherson "offensive" is written on the maps for all to see: AFU attacks; Ru hits 'em hard, then pulls back; AFU advances; Ru hits 'em again, but pulls back more; AFU adds forces to salient; Ru flanks them in force & cuts off their rear; trap closed; turkey shoot.

On Sept 2nd the Ukraine recalled all war correspondents from the front, and gave directives that Journalists were forbidden to evaluate the action of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. They were told that only the military leadership could give reports on the course of hostilities, and that they were not to rely or repeat information obtained from Ukrainian military personnel or Ukrainian field commanders on the ground or at the front.

Late yesterday the Russian air force made its first real showing in this 'counteroffensive' affair. It attacked Ukrainian forces at the front of the salient in the tiny village of Bezimene with some 24 'dumb' 500 kilogram bombs. This ended the existence of the village and of all Ukrainian forces in it.

The Russian airforce then proceeded to destroy all river crossings over the Inhulet.

The Ukrainian forces are now trapped:

Apparently, the Ukrainian's entire elite company of Italian Leopard 2A4 Tanks has now been transferred to the Andreevsky sector of the front. Now they are in the bare steppe without the support of air defense systems in Sukhoi Headquarters in the zone of destruction of Russian artillery and aviation.

Leopard tanks (even a company) are a serious image move for the Kherson Offensive Operation. Apparently, such a move with a demonstration of the entire range of weapons received from the West. It may be intended to further convince that this is where the main attack of the Armed Forces of Ukraine falls and is a diversionary maneuver, and now the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is quietly creating a strike force in another direction, most likely near Kharkov in the northern sector where there are reports of large build up of armored forced being sheltered in the the old soviet era metro system that doubles are fallout shelters in case of nuclear war.

In the Kherson area to the south the number of Ukrainian casualties are huge. Reports from Odessa, Nikolaev and Kryvy Rih speak of thousands of wounded. Many more have died. Hundreds of Ukrainian tanks and infantry fighting vehicles have been destroyed or captured by Russian troops. The 128th mountain assault brigade from the Ukrainian Transcarpatia region was involved in the general attack and got destroyed. The governor of the region reportedly ordered a day of mourning.

The Russians have now begun to launch some attacks of their own to gain areas and towns the Ukrainians had held for some time. The Ukrainians are scrambling to mobilize local reserves in Nikolaev to counter these moves.

In 'western' media neither the defeat of the 'counteroffensive' in Kherson nor the attempted raid on the ZNPP seem to have ever happened. The only mention of it found in the New York Times is this:

In a statement, the [Russian defense] ministry claimed that Russian forces had intercepted two groups of Ukrainian commandos, up to 60 troops combined, who crossed the Dnipro River in boats to sabotage or seize the plant.

In total the 'counterattack' on Kherson has so far failed and ended up destroying many of Ukraine's main military reserves and a major part of the stock of heavy vehicles it had received from the 'west'.

The ZNPP, which was the main 'public relation' target of the whole affair, is still in Russian hands and now secured by the presence of a permanent IAEA delegation.

bruno bertez @BrunoBertez - 7:27 UTC · 3 Sep 2022

"The IAEA is there to stay for as long as it is needed. We are not leaving.” [IAEA director] Grossi said. “For those who may have intentions on the plant, knowing that international inspectors are there, witnessing and informing immediately what is happening, has an important stabilizing effect.”

Meanwhile U.S. President Joe Biden has asked for $13.7 billion in additional money for Ukraine. He wants to fight Russia down to the very last Ukrainian. A fight Russia is almost assured to win.