Incoming Ukrainian fire in Sievierodonetsk

Mixed British, American, and Ukrainian Unit Fighting In the Woodland North of Kharkiv

Another video from foreign mercenaries fighting in Ukraine was shared online. The video shows the efforts of the Ukrainian and foreign fighters to resist Russian forces and artillery North of Kharkiv. Chaos in the retreating groups is seen on the video, as well as losses and injuries among the personnel.

The son of Helen Grant, a member of the British Parliament from the Tory Party, Ben Grant, a 30-year-old former Royal Marine, was seen on the video. He arrived in Ukraine in March. Ben Grant attempted to help his injured comrade, former Grenadier Guardsman Dean Arthur who was injured by a landmine during an intense firefight. The two Britons were with a team of around 15 foreign volunteers who have been supporting Ukrainian forces, The Telegraph reported.

Ben Grant also shared another video showing a Russian transporter vehicle hit with a NLAW anti-tank missile.

A longer version of the video posted separately shows the Russian BTG turning to fire on them after the missile strike, and the group is forced to make their hasty retreat. The main characters of the videos were interviewed by The Telegraph in an attempt to glorify their courage shown in the struggle on foreign territory for a foreign state.

Mr Grant, a veteran of Afghanistan, said the fighting was worse than any he had previously experienced.

    “He told The Telegraph that his 15-strong unit, made up of British and American volunteers and two Ukrainian translators, had been preparing for an assault on a Russian-held target near Kharkiv when they were ambushed.

    He said: “I think we must have been spotted by drones beforehand and they had set up their lines… so as we went in the mass firefight broke out where you see [in the video] what we saw.

    “We were walking in single file as the contact happened, Deano was at the end of my team, when he went to take a knee… we were shooting, getting our heads down and shooting them. I was terrified but driven to complete my most important goal, which at the time was getting him and my team out of the danger.

    “What was so scary was being so limited by trying to carry someone, when I can’t pull my weapon up, while there are attack helicopters overhead and tanks firing through the woods. It was unreal – I’ve never experienced anything like that in my life.”

    He said the mine – thought to have been remote-controlled – went off near Mr Arthur, “which has blown half of his leg off”, adding: “Trying to do this [first aid] mid-firefight while there are Russians shooting over us and around us is just so difficult.”

    The wounded Mr Arthur, 42, from Stoke-on-Trent, Staffordshire, said: “All I remember is we got contacted, we advanced at the contact. Let out an RPG [rocket propelled grenade] at the positions. A few seconds later I was on the ground.

    “One of the guys came to me straight away, put a tourniquet on. It was excruciating pain, with rounds incoming. Mortars, artillery, all that was coming in. I remember the guys grabbing me, saying: ‘Let’s go, let’s go’. We met a medic, he patched me up. Shot of morphine.

    “You’ve seen the footage, you can hear rounds coming. I don’t remember much, it’s in and out. I remember being put on a stretcher the last kilometre. They got me out, man, they got me out.

    “This type of stuff, this type of camaraderie is only forged in these situations. If the coin was flipped, it was one of those guys, I would have got them out.  I was a real lucky boy at the end of the day.  So many guys didn’t come back that day.”

Despite media attempts to represent the adventures of foreign fighters on the Ukrainian front lines as an example of their courage and fighting spirit, the footage and their own comments clearly demonstrate that Ukrainian units and foreign mercenaries are retreating from their positions under pressure from Russian forces. The decision not to fight at close range with the forces led by Russia is rather a good option for foreign fighters, since if they are taken hostage, foreign mercenaries may face the death penalty in the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics.

Western Reporting

 From the Telegraph in the UK:

Russia/Ukraine War Update - May 31st, 2022

*** MILITARY SITUATION ***

-Russian troops have entered the outskirts of the Ukrainian city of Sievierodonetsk. Regional governor Serhiy Gaidai has described the fighting as “very fierce”. Gaidai has also appeared on national television in Ukraine to say “Unfortunately we have disappointing news, the enemy is moving into the city.” 

-Russian tanks and troops begun advancing into Sievierodonetsk, the largest city in Donbas still held by Ukraine, bringing fighting to the streets on Monday. The regional governor, Serhiy Gaidai, described “heavy battles” and said the fighting was “very fierce”.

Russian forces in control of the Mir Hotel in Severodonetsk:

-Lysychansk is one of two cities that was hit hard today in the Luhansk oblast of Ukraine – the bombing of the other city, Sievierodonetsk, is so intense that the casualties cannot be assessed.

*** ECONOMIC & POLITICAL ***

-Brent Tops $122 After EU Agrees On "Partial" Ban Of Russian Oil

-The situation in Donbas remains extremely difficult. The Russian army is trying to gather overwhelming forces in certain areas to put more and more pressure on our defenders. There, in Donbas, the maximum combat power of the Russian army is now gathered. Severodonetsk, Lysychansk, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Kurakhove, Slovyansk and some other settlements remain key targets for the occupiers in this direction.”

-EU leaders have backed a partial embargo on Russian oil after late-night talks at a summit in Brussels. The sanctions will immediately impact 75% of Russian oil imports with the aim to ban 90% of all Russian oil imported to Europe by the end of the year, officials said. The president of the European Council, Charles Michel, hailed the deal as a “remarkable achievement” that would place “maximum pressure on Russia to end the war”. The compromise excludes the Druzhba pipeline from the oil embargo and exempts deliveries arriving in Europe by pipeline, after Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán warned halting supplies would wreck his country’s economy.

-The European Council added it is ready to grant Ukraine €9bn to aid in its post-war reconstruction. The Council will “continue helping Ukraine with its immediate liquidity needs, together with the G7” European Council President Charles Michel said late on Monday night. EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen warned that Ukraine needed €5bn a month just to maintain basic services and “... to give Ukraine a fair chance to rise from the ashes”.

-Belarus will conduct military mobilisation exercises in June and July in the Gomel region, state news agency BelTA reports.

-Christopher Steele, the former UK spy and reputed author of the infamous and discredited “Steele dossier,” told Sky News earlier this month he believes Putin is “seriously ill” and claimed that factored into the Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine. Notably, Steele was hired by organizations on behalf of Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign to conduct opposition research against then-candidate Donald Trump, creating the dossier accusing Trump of having connections to Moscow. Most of the claims within Steele’s notes have been debunked by U.S. intelligence officials, although those allegations ultimately made it to corporate American news outlets such as MSNBC and the New York Times.

-The US president, Joe Biden, has said the United States will not send Ukraine rocket systems that can reach into Russia. The comments followed reports that the Biden administration was preparing to send advanced long-range rocket systems to Kyiv.

So the US decided not to play with fire and the danger of own annihilation and stopped any silly talks about sending HIMARS to 404 and it is all for the better. The US still wants to send some kind of MLRS (maybe even same HIMARS) but with much shorter range munitions. As Dmitry Medvedev noted today:

"Разумно. Иначе при атаке на наши города Вооруженные силы России исполнили бы свою угрозу и нанесли удары по центрам принятия этих преступных решений. Часть из них находится совсем не в Киеве. Что дальше – объяснять не надо"

Translation: "Makes sense. Otherwise, upon attacks on our cities, Russia's Armed Forces would have delivered on their threat to strike these criminal decision making centers. Part of those centers is located absolutely not in Kiev. What would follow--no explanation is needed."

-On Monday Taiwan scrambled fighter jets to warn away a massive grouping of Chinese PLA aircraft which breached the island's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) While such threatening PLA maneuvers in airspace near Taiwan have lately been a frequent occurrence, this fresh incident included a reported 30 Chinese aircraft at once, which is rare for a single occurrence. According to a Bloomberg review, Monday's breach of the southwest ADIZ may have been among the top three single largest breaches on record. "The PLA aircraft conducted 56 flights near Taiwan on Oct. 4 2021, the highest number on record; the highest number in 2022 was 39 on Jan. 23," Bloomberg notes. Beijing has sent jets near the island as a 'warning' to Taipei pro-independence leaders almost weekly for the past two years.

The latest Chinese mission included 22 fighters, as well as electronic warfare, early warning and antisubmarine aircraft, the Taiwan ministry said. The aircraft flew in an area to the northeast of the Pratas, according to a map the ministry provided, though far from Taiwan itself. Taiwan sent combat aircraft to warn away the Chinese aircraft, while missile systems were deployed to monitor them, the ministry said.

-Despite last-minute negotiations between EU countries, leaders have failed to agree on a Russian oil import ban before the two-day summit got underway in Brussels, Reuters reports.

-The new US ambassador to Ukraine has arrived in Kyiv, a symbolic move after the US withdrew all diplomats from the country before the Russian invasion in February.

-A French journalist, Frédéric Leclerc-Imhoff, was killed after an evacuation car was hit near the Ukrainian city of Sievierodonetsk. The French president, Emmanuel Macron, said: “I share the pain of the family, relatives and colleagues of Frédéric Leclerc-Imhoff, to whom I send my condolences.”

-Russia will stop supplying gas to the Netherlands as of tomorrow after the government-backed trader GasTerra refused to pay supplier Gazprom in roubles. Around 44% of Dutch energy usage is based on gas, but only about 15% of Dutch gas comes from Russia, according to government figures.

-Russia has moved troops and equipment into Russia’s Kursk region, which borders Ukraine’s north-eastern region of Sumy, to protect its citizens, Kursk’s governor, Roman Starovoyt, said during a meeting today, Russia’s Interfax reports.

-Pakistan, a nuclear power with at least 165 warheads from short range to medium range, is facing potential economic collapse according to the country's Finance Minister, Miftah Ismail. With an official inflation rate of over 13.37% (double the official CPI to get a more accurate picture of true price inflation), the 2nd fastest rising rate in Asia, Pakistan has sought relief from foreign debt obligations and an IMF bailout deal. Initial arrangements for a three year deal with the IMF began in 2019, but Pakistan says that deal, originally for $6 billion USD, is 'outdated' due to the covid pandemic and new global financial pressures. The nation now says it is in 'dire need' of at least $36 billion in order to stay afloat. Pakistan is slated to pay back over $21 billion USD in foreign debt within the next fiscal year. It is also struggling with extensive food inflation and supply chain disruptions as the government seeks to import at least 3 million tons of wheat and 4 million tons of cooking oil to alleviate shortages. This is yet another example of the spread of global inflation/stagflation that is going largely ignored by western media outlets. Nations like Pakistan with already weakened economic conditions are canaries in the coal mine; leading indicators of what is likely to happen throughout more affluent first world nations should current conditions continue.

-German inflation hit another post-World-War-II record high, piling pressure on The ECB's need to exit from crisis-era stimulus after numbers from Spain also printed hotter than expected. Driven by soaring energy and food costs, this morning's data showed consumer prices in Europe's largest economy surged 8.7% YoY - far hotter than the +8.1% expected (thge highest since the start of the monthly statistics in 1963). As Bloomberg reports, the report comes just 10 days before a crucial ECB meeting where officials are set to announce the conclusion of large-scale asset purchases and confirm plans to raise interest rates in July for the first time in more than a decade.

-In a phone call with Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, on Monday, Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, said the country was ready to take on a role in an “observation mechanism” between Russia, Ukraine and the United Nations. Erdoğan said peace needed to be established as soon as possible and that confidence-building steps needed to be taken, Reuters reports.

-On 26 May in an interview with Czech publication Ekonom, the incoming governor of the Czech National Bank (CNB), Aleš Michl, said that he plans to massively increase the central bank’s gold reserves from the current 11 tonnes to over 100 tonnes or more.

-Ukrainian soldiers captured by Russian forces after the three-month siege of the Azovstal steel plant may face the death penalty, AFP reports. At least 1,000 Ukrainian fighters, including members of the Azov battalion, were transferred to Russian-held territory more than a week ago.

-Ukraine’s former president Petro Poroshenko, who faces treason charges, has been allowed to leave the country to attend a political meeting. Poroshenko, the owner of the Roshen confectionery empire and one of Ukraine’s richest businesspeople, is being investigated for his alleged involvement in financing of Russian-backed separatists in 2014-15.

-Russia is considering paying Eurobond holders by applying the mechanism it uses to process payments for its gas in roubles. The scheme would allow Moscow to pay bondholders while bypassing western payment infrastructure. Investors, however, said the move would not enable Russia to avoid a historic default on debt.

Russia/Ukraine War Update - May 30th, 2022

 *** MILITARY SITUATION ***

Russian troops entered the outskirts of the Ukrainian city of Sievierodonetsk, Luhansk regional governor Serhiy Gaidai said in a statement issued early on Monday morning. Gaidai said “heavy battles” were taking place as Russian troops attack the city with all weapons and air support, and have entered its southeastern and northeastern areas.

Officials in eastern Ukraine say Russian shelling of Sievierodonetsk has been so intense that it has not been possible to assess casualties and damage, as Moscow closes in on the largest city still held by Ukraine in the Donbas. Fighting is believed to be taking place in the streets and “the entire critical infrastructure” of the city has been destroyed, according to president Zelenskiy. Ukrainian authorities have described conditions in Sievierodonetsk as reminiscent of Mariupol.

-Gleb Bazov, who was probably the single most valuable source of information from the ground in 2014, estimates the Russia-led coalition has so far suffered around 8,500 killed and perhaps 26,000 wounded.
    
His estimate for Ukrainian military deaths is 55,000 to 60,000 and up to 100,000 WIA.

These figures for Ukraine appear very high, but they begin to make sense when you consider the Ukrainians have, in the course of four rounds of mobilizations, activated almost every available male for military service. Also explains why they recently changed the rules and begin to deploy lightly armed and equipped territorial defense units to the front.

*** ECONOMIC & POLITICAL ***

-The Tass news agency is reporting that grain is being shipped from Kherson, which the Russians now occupy, to Russia. They quote Kirill Stremousov, deputy head of the military-civilian administration that has been imposed on Kherson, as saying “We have space to store (the new crop) although we have a lot of grain here. People are now partially taking it out, having agreed with those who buy it from the Russian side.” He is quoted as saying that the administration was working on the supplies of sunflower seeds to local and Russian processing plants.

-In the interview to Welt, no less, General Roland Kather (the German Representative at
NATO HQ Brussels) arrived at this conclusion:

"Die Russen haben lokal eine bedrückende Überlegenheit erzielt“

Translation: "The Russians have achieved an overwhelming local superiority." 

"Die Beurteilung der militärischen Lage dort ist für einen Außenstehenden sehr schwer. Es gibt viel Propaganda: Viel wird von Siegen gesprochen, viel von Raumgewinn. Das muss so sein, um die Motivation der ukrainischen Zivilisten und Soldaten auf einem hohen Niveau zu halten. Andererseits habe ich das Gefühl, dass sich die Russen doch zunehmend im Donbass festsetzen. Und das ist ja eines der großen Ziele. Stefanie Babst (ehemalige Nato-Chefstrategin, Anm. d. Red.) bezeichnet das als „Boa-Constrictor-Effekt“: Wie von einer Schlange werden die Ukrainer durch die Russen erwürgt. Ich fürchte, das wird noch lange so gehen, weil derzeit zwar tapfer und aufopferungsvoll unter Kenntnis des Geländes verteidigt wird. Aber letztendlich wird die Ukraine sowohl in puncto Quantität, also der Menge der russischen Soldaten, aber auch in Bezug auf die Qualität unterlegen sein."

Translation: "It is very difficult for an outsider to assess the military situation there. There's a lot of propaganda: there's a lot of talk about victories, a lot about gaining ground. This has to be the case in order to keep the motivation of Ukrainian civilians and soldiers at a high level. On the other hand, I have the feeling that the Russians are increasingly establishing themselves in the Donbass. And that's one of the big goals. Stefanie Babst (former NATO chief strategist, editor's note) describes this as the "boa constrictor effect": the Ukrainians are being strangled by the Russians like a snake. I'm afraid it will be like this for a long time to come, because at the moment people are defending bravely and self-sacrificingly while knowing the terrain. But in the end, Ukraine will be inferior both in terms of quantity, that is, the number of Russian soldiers, and in terms of quality."

-According to political scientist and military expert Carlo Masala, Russian President Vladimir Putin currently sees no reason for negotiations with Ukraine. Masala, Professor of International Politics at the University of the Bundeswehr in Munich, told the German Press Agency that Putin would only begin to negotiate seriously if he had to fear that he would lose more than he would win by continuing the war. But that is not the case at the moment. 

-Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskiy is set to address European Union leaders at an emergency summit later today to push for new sanctions against Russia. EU leaders will meet in Brussels to declare their continued support for Ukraine but have so far failed to agree on a new sanctions package against Moscow.

-Zelenskiy said he believed Russia would agree to talks if Ukraine could recapture all the territory it has lost since the invasion. However, he ruled out the idea of using force to win back his land.

-Ukraine’s President Zelenskiy visited troops in Kharkiv and toured the country’s second-largest city to see damage by Russian forces in his first official appearance outside the Kyiv area since the start of the war. “Kharkiv suffered terrible blows from the occupiers… One third of the Kharkiv region is still under occupation,” he said. According to local officials, over 2,000 apartment blocks have been wholly or partially destroyed by Russian shelling in the region.

-Zelenskiy said he has fired the head of state security service in Kharkiv for not working to defend the city, adding that “law enforcement officers” are now involved. “I came, figured out and fired the head of the security service of Ukraine of the (Kharkiv) region for the fact that he did not work on the defence of the city from the first days of the full-scale war, but thought only about himself,” the president said in his daily national address. “On which motives? The law enforcement officers will figure it out,” he added.

-Nato is no longer bound by past commitments to hold back from deploying its forces in eastern Europe, the US-led alliance’s deputy secretary general has said. Moscow itself has “voided of any content” the Nato-Russia Founding Act, by attacking Ukraine and halting dialogue with the alliance, Mircea Geoana told Agence France-Presse. Under the 1997 Founding Act, intended to reset the relationship between Russia and the Alliance, both sides agreed to work to “prevent any potentially threatening build-up of conventional forces in agreed regions of Europe, to include Central and Eastern Europe”.

-The “liberation” of Ukraine’s Donbas region is an “unconditional priority” for Moscow, while other Ukrainian territories should decide their future on their own, Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said according to a released from Russia’s foreign ministry.

-In a Saturday night speech Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky gave his most dire assessment to date of the status of Ukraine forces in the eastern Donbas region, where for over at least the last two months Russia has concentrated its forces, following the Feb.24 invasion of the country. Saturday marked the 95th day of the conflict. He described conditions there as "indescribably difficult" in what marks a notably pessimistic shift and negative tone for the Ukrainian leader, strongly suggesting the fall of Donbas - or at least whole regions such as Luhansk - could be imminent. He identified several intense ongoing battles in places with a large Russian force presence, including Severodonetsk, Lysychansk, Bakhmut and Popasna. Sievierodonets in particular is scene of fierce up-close street battles. "But our defense holds on," Zelensky sought to assure the public. "It’s indescribably difficult there. And I am grateful to all those who withstand this onslaught of the occupiers." As the AP describes of some instances of "close-quarter combat":

Ukrainian regional officials reported that Russian forces were "storming" Sievierodonetsk after trying unsuccessfully to encircle the city. The fighting knocked out power and cellphone service, and a humanitarian relief center could not operate because of the danger, the mayor said. Zelensky in the address also denounced what he called "absolutely senseless, openly barbaric strikes at the Sumy region," which left at least one person dead and seven wounded and two in critical condition, saying further mortars struck close to a kindergarten.

-Ukraine has started receiving Harpoon anti-ship missiles from Denmark and self-propelled howitzers from the United States. “The coastal defence of our country will not only be strengthened by Harpoon missiles – they will be used by trained Ukrainian teams,” Ukrainian defence minister Oleksiy Reznikov said.

-Poland has also agreed to send artillery to Ukraine, Polish state media reported.

-While Europe shuns Russian oil amid sanctions and expectations of an oil embargo on Russian oil imports, India and China have stepped up purchases and are importing record volumes of Russian crude, according to data from energy analytics company Kpler cited by Bloomberg on Friday.  Russia had up to 79 million barrels of crude either traveling on tankers or held in floating storage over the past week, Kpler’s estimates have shown. That’s more than double the 27 million barrels of crude Russia had seaborne in February, just before Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. Before the war, Russia was primarily selling its crude to Europe, but this is no longer the case after buyers, governments, international trading houses, and oil majors are all avoiding dealing with Russian oil, all the more so given the EU sanctions ban on bank transactions with the biggest Russian oil producers, including Rosneft. Trade majors have now wound down purchases of Russia’s oil. But China and India aren’t shying away from Russian crude, although some Chinese state giants haven’t ramped up imports of spot cargoes from Russia despite the steep discounts at which Russian oil is selling. In India, cheap Russian crude oil is attracting India’s price-sensitive buyers to the point that Russia became the fourth largest oil supplier to India in April, moving up from the 10th place in March, according to shipment-tracking data compiled by Reuters.

-The German economy minister, Robert Habeck, raised concerns that European Union unity on new sanctions against Russia is “starting to crumble”.

-Russia will continue to supply gas to Serbia, after a phone call between the Russian president and his Serbian counterpart. Aleksandar Vučić said he agreed a three-year gas supply contract with Putin, with further details to be finalised with producer Gazprom.

-Russia is continuing to ship gas to Europe through Ukraine, Gazprom has confirmed. The Russian gas producer said its supply via the Sudzha entry point stood at 44.1 million cubic metres, up from 43.95 on Saturday.

-The EU failed to agree on an embargo of Russian oil during talks on Sunday while debating whether to water down a ban on Russian oil imports to placate Hungary’s leader, Viktor Orbán, who is blocking the latest European sanctions.

Gonzalo Lira on what happens if Ukraine loses the Donbass battle

Speculation regarding an upcoming breakdown of the Ukrainian government by Gonzalo Lira who lives in Kharkiv. He is discussing the old idea of the 'Novorossiya' partitioning of Ukraine, which may represent the real original Russian goals for the military operation.

Very interesting are his comments that the Ukrainians are digging in around Dnepropetrovsk, which is 100km behind the current front - all the way back to the central bend of the Dnieper River. If that is correct, then the Ukrainians are preparing to make a 'last stand' around Dnipro  after a potential catastrophic collapse of the Doneysk front.

Also interesting is the observation that the Pole's may take advantage of any political upheaval in Kiev by moving across the western border to create a buffer zone. This is a potential military and political outcome that has been discussed in pro Russian circles since 2014.

Russia/Ukraine War Update - May 29th, 2022

*** MILITARY SITUATION ***

Ukraine is in a race against time to save the eastern Donbas region as relentless Russian artillery and air strikes threaten to turn the tide of the war, and support for Kyiv’s continued defiance among some west European allies appears to be slipping.

Russian forces are now in full control of the town of Lyman in eastern Ukraine, the Russian defence ministry has claimed. Yesterday, Ukraine reported Russia had captured most of Lyman but that its forces were blocking an advance to Sloviansk, a city a half-hour drive further southwest.

A quick glance at a map will reveal Lyman as the MAJOR railway hub that services the entire region. This effectively cuts off rail supplies to the Ukrainian troops caught in the Severodonetsk pocket, and also will make it much harder for them to withdraw before they become tactically encircled.

Russia continues to bombard areas of Donbas with shelling and seize more territory in Ukraine’s east. Russia’s defence ministry claims troops have captured the strategically important city of Lyman and several other smaller towns and encircled Sievierodonetsk, which Ukraine denies.

Russian 203mm 2S7 self-propelled howitzers (30 mile range) in action:

Russia TOS-1A multiple rocket launchers firing thermobaric munitions against entrenched Ukrainian positions:

-Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskiy said in a Saturday night television address that conditions in Donbas are “indescribably difficult”. He thanked Ukrainian defenders holding out in the face of the onslaught.

-Zelenskiy also conceded that, while he is certain his country will take back all the land Russia has seized since its 24 February invasion, other territory, such as Crimea, which Russia took in 2014, cannot be recovered by force. “I do not believe that we can restore all of our territory by military means. If we decide to go that way, we will lose hundreds of thousands of people,” he said.

-Russia’s Tass news agency says president Vladimir Putin on Saturday signed into law a measure scrapping the upper age limit for military recruits in the face of mounting losses in Ukraine. UK intelligence estimated this month Russia had lost about a third of its ground forces.

-Officials in the south eastern port city of Mykolaiv said at least one person was killed, and at least six injured, in Russian shelling. Two rounds landed in courtyards of high-rise buildings, and one shell fell close to a kindergarten, CNN reported.

*** ECONOMIC & POLITICAL ***

-Ukrainian officials say they urgently need advanced US-made mobile multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) to halt Russian advances in Luhansk and Donetsk. The rockets would be capable of striking Russian firing positions, military bases, air strips and supply lines at a range of up to 300km (185 miles). Moscow, keenly aware of the game-changing potential of the rocket systems, has already voiced strong objections. “If the Americans do this, they will clearly cross a red line,” said Olga Skabeeva, an influential Russian state TV host whose views reflect the Kremlin’s. Russia’s response could be “very harsh”, she warned. US news outlets reported on Saturday that Biden had agreed to provide some rocket systems as part of a major new US arms package for Ukraine to be announced this week. The package may also include another advanced weapon, the high mobility artillery rocket system, known as Himars.

-Robert Spingarn from Melius Research asked Raytheon CEO Greg Hayes at the time: "Will the Army replace the current 1,400 stingers that were sent to Ukraine?" Hayes replied Raytheon is "currently producing stingers for an international customer, but we have a very limited stock of material for stinger production." Like with everything related to the ease with which Congress and the administration shovels taxpayer money overseas, the Pentagon has apparently come up with a solution... in the form of more, more, more taxpayer money. "The U.S. Army has signed a deal to buy $687 million worth of anti-air Stinger missiles to replenish stocks sent to Ukraine, sources said on Friday," Reuters reports. The Stingers are in "hot demand" we are told: "The shoulder-fired anti-aircraft Stinger missiles made by Raytheon Technologies were in hot demand in Ukraine, where they have successfully stopped Russian assaults from the air, and in neighboring European countries who fear they may also need to beat back Russian forces," writes Reuters further. Again, late last month it was one of the DoD's biggest contractors that "alerted" the Pentagon that it needs to do some urgent replentishing. Raytheon's Hayes had described that "DoD hasn't bought a stinger in about 18 years. And some of the components are no longer commercially available, and so we're going to have to go out and redesign some of the electronics in the missile of the seeker head." Hayes said it's "going to take us a little bit of time" to ramp up production and doesn't expect DoD to place large replenishment orders for stingers until 2023 or 2024.

-A consignment of Russian crude oil that has waited off Sri Lanka’s coast for more than a month was finally unloaded in Colombo on Saturday in a move beneficial to both countries. That the cash-strapped Sri Lanka was finally able to come up with $75m (£59m) to pay for it could prove a timely boost to Russia, which faces European sanctions on its oil from Monday when EU leaders meet to discuss new measures to punish the country for its invasion of Ukraine. Moscow, meanwhile, has been negotiating further exports to Sri Lanka, of crude, coal, diesel and petrol as the island nation suffers an economic downturn and severe fuel shortages.

-Russian President Vladimir Putin in a Saturday phone call with his French and German counterparts Emmanuel Macron and Chancellor Olaf Scholz said Moscow stands "ready" to re-engage in peace talks with the Ukrainian government. The phone call came as some Western officials have belatedly admitted that Russian forces are making steady gains in the Donbas, also as the Luhansk is about to come under total Russian control. The focus of the call included Macron and Scholz urging the Russian leader to immediately hold "serious negotiations" with President Zelensky; however the European leaders reportedly requested that captured Azov battalion members from Mariupol must be released, which the Kremlin balked at, also given the group's neo-Nazi identity. A follow-up Kremlin statement said of the call that "Special attention was given to the state of affairs on the negotiating track, which is frozen because of Kiev. Vladimir Putin confirmed Russia is open to resuming the dialogue."

-On Saturday Russia announced it conducted another successful test of the Zircon hypersonic missile, which reportedly flew over a distance of 1,000km (or 621 miles) after it was launched at a target in the White Sea. The missile was fired from the Russian navy's Admiral Grigorovich-class frigate the waters of the Barents Sea. The identified area for the test, given the hypersonic was launched from the Barents, is very close to waters off Finland and Sweden.

-Spain is sending a battery of surface-to-air missiles and around 100 troops to the Nato forward presence mission in Latvia, joining around 500 compatriots already present in the Baltic state, El País reported.

-The New York Times reports that Russia has resorted to crowdsourcing food, clothes and even military supplies for its troops from its own citizens. “No one expected there to be such a war,” Tatyana Plotnikova, a business owner in the city of Novokuybyshevsk, told the Times in a phone interview. “I think no one was ready for this”. The article suggests Russia’s $66bn (£52.2bn) defence budget was woefully inadequate for such a large scale undertaking as the invasion of Ukraine. A grass-roots network of citizens is donating roubles to pay for, among other items, drones, crutches and potatoes to be sent to the front line.

-For the third year, Americans are greeting the unofficial start of summer shadowed by the specter of the coronavirus amid rising covid-19 cases and hospitalizations across the country. The United States is recording more than 100,000 infections a day — at least five times higher than this point last …

COVID CASES USA 7-DAY AVG
110,838 MAY 27 2022
23,011 MAY 27 2021

Weekend Edition: Eva Bartlett interview w/ Larry Johnson

Russia/Ukraine War Update - May 28th, 2022

*** MILITARY SITUATION ***

Russian forces began direct assaults on built-up areas of Severodonetsk on May 27 without having fully encircled the city and cut off the Ukrainian defenders. Geolocated videos confirmed that Chechen units seized a hotel located in the northern part of Severodonetsk on May 27. Severodonetsk Military-Civil Administration Head Oleksiy Stryuk reported that Ukrainian forces previously repelled Russian attacks on the hotel on May 26, but Russian forces captured the position sometime on May 27. Luhansk Oblast Head Serhiy Haidai said that Russian forces also conducted offensive operations just southeast of Rubizhne toward Severodonetsk. Russian forces also continued to push on Severodonetsk via Ustynka and Borisvske just 9km and 14km southeast of the city, respectively. The Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) falsely claimed that Russian forces cut off all routes and surrounded Severodonetsk, trapping Ukrainian units in the Severodonetsk cauldron, though this is untrue and Russian forces have not yet fully encircled Ukrainian defenders. Ukrainian sources differed on the extent of Russian advances, with Stryuk estimating that Russian forces have encircled approximately two-thirds of Severodonetsk’s perimeter and Haidai stating Russian forces have only reached the city’s outskirts.

Russian forces attempted to seize access to two highways east and northeast of Popasna on May 27 in a continued effort to partially disrupt Ukrainian GLOCs to Severodonetsk. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces continued assaults against villages adjacent to the T1302 highway from Bakhmut to Lysychansk, just northeast of Popasna. Russian forces also attacked east of Popasna to secure access to the T1303 highway to Lysychansk. Russian forces are likely prioritizing the Lysychansk direction, rather than advancing toward Bakhmut, to support Russia’s main effort operations in Severodonetsk.

Russia is tightening the noose on Ukrainian troops in the country's east. A fierce ground and artillery assault has seen Moscow's forces advance, and they now appear close to encircling the last two hold-out cities in Luhansk province — which together with neighboring Donetsk forms the Donbas region that has become the key focus of the Kremlin’s war. With Ukrainian officials voicing concern their troops are now outmanned and outgunned, this Russian push could prove a decisive moment in the conflict.

Russian troops have taken over the town of Liman in the northern Donetsk region, the government in Kiev admitted on Thursday evening. Ukrainian forces have reportedly withdrawn west-southwest towards Slavyansk. “We have lost the town of Liman,” Alexey Arestovich, adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, said in a livestream on Thursday. Though Arestovich cited “unconfirmed reports,” Russian military correspondent Alexander Kots posted a video of Russian troops in the city shortly thereafter, captioned “Liman is ours.” Ukrainian troops “fled” west and southwest, Kots added, while covering their retreat with artillery fire.

-Russian forces began direct assaults on built-up areas of Severodonetsk without having fully encircled the city and will likely struggle to take ground in the city itself.

-Russian forces in Lyman appear to be dividing their efforts—attacking both southwest to support stalled forces in Izyum and southeast to advance on Siversk; they will likely struggle to accomplish either objective in the coming days.

-Russian forces in Popasna seek to advance north to support the encirclement of Severodonestk rather than advancing west toward Bakhmut.

-Positions northeast of Kharkiv City remain largely static, with no major attacks by either Russian or Ukrainian forces.

-Russian forces continue to fortify their defensive positions along the southern axis and advance efforts to integrate the Kherson region into Russian economic and political structures.

-The besieged city of Sievierodonetsk in eastern Ukraine appears to be almost completely surrounded by attacking Russian forces. Russia has continued to make incremental gains in its offensive in the Donbas region, backed by withering shell fire. The regional governor of Luhansk, Serhiy Haidai, said Russian forces have surrounded two-thirds of Sievierodonetsk.

-Ukrainian authorities have issued differing statements about their control over the strategic city of Lyman in the Donetsk region. A presidential adviser said he had unverified information that Ukraine had lost Lyman, while Ukraine’s armed forces said Russian troops were trying to strengthen their positions in the city. The governor of the Donetsk region, Pavlo Kyrylenko, said there was heavy fighting around the city after Ukrainian troops withdrew to a new line of defence. Russian media reported that pro-Russian separatists had seized the city.

-President Volodymyr Zelenskiy speaking in a short video address said the situation in Donbas is “very difficult”. He said Russian forces are concentrated in the coastal region of Ukraine and using “maximum artillery” reserves. “We are protecting our land in the way that our current defensive resources allow,” he said. “And we are doing everything to strengthen them.”

*** ECONOMIC & POLITICAL ***

-The US and its allies have communicated to Ukraine the danger of escalation should the weapons provided by the West be used to attack targets inside Russia, according to an exclusive report by Reuters quoting anonymous officials on Thursday. However, Washington has not explicitly banned Kiev from doing so. The highly sensitive, behind-the-scenes discussions have “sought to reach a shared understanding of the risk of escalation,” according to the agency’s sources. “We have concerns about escalation and yet still do not want to put geographic limits or tie their hands too much with the stuff we're giving them,” said one of the three US officials who spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity. Only two officials were quoted by name, and it wasn’t clear what their relation to these discussions might be. Douglas Lute, a retired US Army lieutenant-general and Washington’s former ambassador to NATO, said that if Ukrainian troops struck deep inside Russia, “it would spark a divisive debate inside the alliance. And, of course, the alliance doesn't want that. And neither does Ukraine.”

-Ukrainian presidential advisor Alexey Arestovich resorted to obscene language to criticize those in the West urging Kiev to cede part of the country's territory to Russia for the sake of peace. “Go f**k yourselves with such proposals, you dumb f**ks, to trade Ukrainian territory a little bit! Are you f**king crazy? Our children are dying, soldiers are stopping shells with their own bodies, and they are telling us how to sacrifice our territories. This will never happen,” Arestovich said in an interview on Wednesday. Arestovich criticized the logic of “bleating” voices encouraging Ukraine “to curb its appetite” and to give Russia the territories it supposedly wants, as such concessions would allow Kiev to “establish a comprehensive peace and to return to business as usual.” Another adviser of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Mikhail Podoliak, took to Telegram on Wednesday to address “pro-Russian lobbyists in Europe.”

-U.S. refiners are operating at the highest operating rate since before the pandemic, but they are not expected to bring relief to the tight fuel market through major capacity expansions in the short term. Some of the biggest refiners are working on expanding the crude oil processing capacity at large existing facilities, but those additions will not fully offset the U.S. refinery processing capacity, which closed during and right after COVID. ExxonMobil, Valero, and Marathon Petroleum are currently working on the expansion at three large refineries, which will bring a combined 350,000 barrels per day (bpd) additional crude distillation capacity in the United States, Dylan Chase of Argus reports.

-the Chinese border city of Heihe, across Amur river from the Russian city of Blagoveshensk, sends these messages to its neighbors in Russia. The message is: Russia, we are with you. Once the authenticity of this is confirmed (TV Zvezda reported on that, BTW), this is a very nice neighborly gesture from Chinese in the city of Heihe. There are polls in China which testify to the fact that large majority of Chinese are really rooting for Russia against the combined West.

-Iranian soldiers seized two oil tankers flying the Greek flag in the Persian Gulf on Friday, while Tehran protested the confiscation of one of its own vessels in Greek waters earlier this week, calling it US “piracy.” Washington reportedly plans to sell the ship’s oil cargo, which was confiscated under sanctions targeting Russia. Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy troops used helicopters to board the tankers Delta Poseidon and Prudent Warrior on Friday, the industry monitor Lloyd’s List reported. The ships were “later escorted by naval vessels from international traffic lanes to Iranian waters a few miles off the coast,” according to the same source. The Greek Foreign Ministry confirmed the seizure of the two vessels and demanded their release.

-Two American warships and a French Navy vessel joined a German frigate in Helsinki on Friday. Finland has applied to join NATO and is holding a number of exercises with other nations. Sweden, a fellow aspirant, will host a major NATO drill next month. The USS Gravely, an Arleigh Burke-class guided missile destroyer, the USS Gunston Hall, a Whidbey Island-class dock landing ship, and the French Navy’s F70 type anti-submarine ship Latouche-Treville docked in the Finnish capital on Friday and will remain there till Monday, Finnish authorities reported. The warships have joined the German Navy ship the Sachsen, the lead in its class of air-defense frigates. It arrived in Helsinki on Wednesday, after taking part in a joint exercise with Finland’s Coastal Fleet earlier in the week.

-Former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger turned 99 on Friday and Ukrainian government-linked activists marked the occasion by adding his name to their Mirotvorets (‘Peacemaker’) website. Labeled “an accomplice in the crimes of the Russian authorities,” Kissinger was blacklisted after he called for a negotiated peace between Kiev and Moscow and a return to the pre-February status quo.

-Russia announced today that it expects to receive $14bn in additional energy revenue, reports AFP. Russia’s finance minister announced today that the country is set to receive one trillion rubles in additional oil and gas revenues this year, noting that the additional income will be spent on Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine. “We expect to receive up to a trillion rubles ($14.4 billion) in additional oil and gas revenues, according to the forecast that we have developed with the ministry of economic development,” said finance minister Anton Siluanov during remarks that were broadcasted on Russian state television. Siluanov further clarified that the money will be spent on “additional payments” to pensioners and families with children as well as to continue conducting a “special operation” in Ukraine, referring to Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.

-The UK’s prime minister, Boris Johnson, said Russia was making slow but “palpable progress” in Donbas. He said Ukraine should be supplied with long-range multiple launch rocket systems to help Kyiv’s embattled forces but stopped short of committing the UK to sending the powerful M270 rocket system, which Kyiv has been pleading for from Britain, the US and other Nato members for several weeks.

-A Democrat proposal to create a special task force for hunting down “white supremacists” in the US military and federal law enforcement agencies failed in the Senate on Thursday, after no Republicans voted for it. The ruling party invoked the recent mass shooting at a Buffalo, New York supermarket to argue such enforcement was necessary.

-Russia’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, has accused western countries of waging a “total war” on Russia and its people and culture. Western allies are “cancelling Russia and everything connected” with it, including banning Russian writers, composers and other cultural figures, he said at a ministry meeting.

-A top US Navy official has come up with an alternative to scrapping recently-built warships with design and mechanical failures that make them unworthy for Washington’s use: Selling the vessels to South American allies.

-Finland and Sweden are unlikely to become NATO candidate members at the group's upcoming summit on June 28-30 unless they fulfill Turkey’s demands, the bloc's Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg announced during a press conference with Spanish media on Thursday. The NATO chief acknowledged Ankara’s stance against the acceptance of Sweden and Finland into the bloc and called for Turkey’s concerns and demands to be discussed and resolved.

-Russia ‘planning full-scale victory in Ukraine by autumn’. The Kremlin is considering a second assault on Kyiv despite failing to capture the Ukrainian capital at the outset of the war, according to the independent news website, Meduza. Sources close to the Kremlin and inside the Putin administration said confidence has spread to the leadership of United Russia, the country’s ruling political party, that a full-scale victory in Ukraine is possible before the end of the year. 

One source said: We’ll grind them [the Ukrainians] down in the end. The whole thing will probably be over by the fall. Russia’s leadership has “minimum” and “maximum” thresholds for declaring a successful and completed “special military operation” in Ukraine, sources said. The bare minimum needed to declare victory is the complete capture of the Donbas region, according to sources, while the maximum goal would be the capture of Kyiv. The editor of the English-language edition of Meduza, Kevin Rothrock, said the report suggests that Ukraine is losing the “information war” for the first time since the invasion.

Kremlin officials are also sceptical that western countries can sustain their massive financial and military support to Ukraine if the war drags on, the website reports. Another source said: Sooner or later, Europe will tire of helping. This is both money and arms production that they need for themselves. Closer to the fall, they’ll have to negotiate [with Russia] on gas and oil, before the cold season arrives.

-Sergey Lapko, the Ukrainian commander who gave an interview to the Washington Post stating Ukraine soldiers were "living on one potato a day" has been removed from his post and arrested.

-The UN Security Council failed to reach common ground on new sanctions against North Korea (the DPRK), on Thursday. Washington proposed the penalties in the wake of Pyongyang's latest missile test this week, which came on the heels of US President Joe Biden's Asia tour. The vote took place just a day after North Korea was accused of test-launching its largest intercontinental ballistic missile and two others. Ahead of the vote, US Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield called for unity in the face of “a threat to the entire international community.” However, China and Russia vetoed new sanctions on humanitarian grounds, pointing to their futility and even “inhumanity,” as North Korea struggles to contain a massive Covid-19 outbreak.

-Fresh off of the US targeting a series of companies involved in an Iran-linked oil smuggling network, the US has now seized an oil tanker near Greece, taking the Iranian oil within to be sent to the US. The oil was on a Russian-operated ship, which had been singled out for US targeting in February. It was then called the Pegas. The company renamed the ship the Lana and was Russian flagged. Greece had impounded the Pegas and its Russian crew last month over the invasion of Ukraine, but ultimately released it. Neither the US nor Russia is commenting. Greece says the US informed them the oil was Iranian, and that the US hired a different ship to take the oil to America. Iran has summoned the Greek charges d’affaires and called the incident a "clear example of piracy." The US accused the tanker of loading 700,000 Bbls of oil from Iran in August 2021. The tanker mostly sent oil to China.

-Liz Truss, the UK foreign secretary, dismissed as completely unfounded reports emanating from Germany that an agreement exists preventing Nato members from delivering heavy weaponry to Ukraine. Some German defence ministers have claimed an informal agreement exists preventing Nato from sending high-quality heavy weapons to Ukraine, a claim that has been used to justify the slow pace of German arms support to Ukraine.

-The US general nominated to be the next commander of NATO suggested in a Senate hearing on Thursday that he may offer military options to facilitate grain exports from Ukraine and help break Russia’s blockade of Ukraine’s southern coast. When asked what NATO could do about Russia’s blockade, Gen. Christopher Cavoli, who currently serves as the commander of US Army Forces in Europe and Africa, said if he’s confirmed, he would "provide the military options required by our civilian leaders." "Clearly the way we would approach that would have to be a whole of government approach, which may or may not include a military component," he added. It’s not clear from Cavoli’s answer if he means the options would include the US confronting Russian warships or if the military would just be involved in assisting with alternate ways to ship grain. He went on to mention efforts being made to ship more Ukrainian grain by rail to ports in western Europe.

-The UK government has announced a temporary windfall tax on oil and gas giants to fund a relief package for households struggling with rising bills. Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak has previously resisted opposition parties’ calls for a windfall tax, warning about the impact it would have on future investment. But he has now been forced to unveil emergency measures to tackle the impact of soaring inflation, which has reached a 40-year high. Millions of households will receive a £400 ($504) discount off their energy bills. Around 8 million of the lowest income households will be sent a one-off payment of £650, and pensioners will receive a one-off £300 payment. To help fund the package, which will cost £15 billion ($19 billion), the government will introduce a 25 percent profit levy on oil and gas giants, which it expects to generate £5 billion ($6.3 billion) in tax revenues.

-Ukraine’s state gas company and operator have issued a request to the German government to either halt or severely curtail gas flows through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, Reuters reports. The request argues that the operation of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline is allowed under German law on the basis that it contributes to the strengthening of the security of gas supplies to Europe. However, Russia had “violated these principles”, the head of Ukraine’s gas system operator, Serhiy Makogon, said.

-Three suspected mercenaries from Britain and Morocco, who joined the Ukrainian military and were later captured by the forces of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR), could be facing the death penalty there, the republic’s General Prosecutor’s Office said on Friday.

-Greece and Cyprus would object to any proposal suggesting fast-tracking Ukraine’s accession to the EU, Euractiv reported on Friday, citing anonymous diplomats.

-Newly disclosed documents have shed a crack of light on secret executive branch plans for apocalyptic scenarios — like the aftermath of a nuclear attack — when the president may activate wartime powers for national security emergencies. Until now, public knowledge of what the government put into those classified directives, which invoke emergency and wartime powers granted by Congress or otherwise claimed by presidents, has been limited to declassified descriptions of those developed in the early Cold War. In that era, they included steps like imposing martial law, rounding up people deemed dangerous and censoring news from abroad.

Several of the files, provided to The New York Times by the Brennan Center for Justice, show that the Bush-era effort partly focused on a law that permits the president to take over or shut down communications networks in wartime. That suggests the government may have developed or revised such an order in light of the explosive growth in the 1990s of the consumer internet.

-US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken declared on Thursday that Washington's policy of strategic ambiguity toward Taiwan remains intact, despite President Joe Biden having promised to involve the US military in the event of a Chinese invasion. Blinken is the second senior Biden administration official to correct the president’s statement. Biden angered Beijing on Monday by declaring that despite abiding by the ‘One China Policy’, the US would involve its military in any potential conflict between China and Taiwan. Although the White House swiftly clarified that the president's words did not represent a change to the US’ long-standing recognition of China’s sovereignty over Taiwan, Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesman Wang Wenbin said that the US leader’s comments put him at “opposition to the 1.4 billion Chinese people.”

-On Thursday, the Pentagon said the State Department approved a potential sale of CH-47F Chinook helicopters and related equipment to Egypt worth about $2.6 billion. The Pentagon’s Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) said the sale is for 56 Chinooks, which come with installed M-240 machine guns. The principal contractor for the deal is Boeing.

Russia/Ukraine War Update - May 27th, 2022

*** MILITARY SITUATION ***

Russian forces have made steady, incremental gains in heavy fighting in eastern Ukraine in the past several days, though Ukrainian defenses remain effective overall. Deputy Ukrainian Defense Minister Hanna Malyar stated that the fighting is currently at its "maximum intensity” compared to previous Russian assaults and will likely continue to escalate. Spokesperson for the Ukrainian Defense Ministry Oleksandr Motuzyanyk characterized Russian gains as “temporary success” and stated that Ukrainian forces are using a maneuver defense to put pressure on Russian advances in key areas. Russian forces have now taken control of over 95% of Luhansk Oblast and will likely continue efforts to complete the capture of Severodonetsk in the coming days. Russian forces have made several gains in the past week, but their offensive operations remain slow. Russian forces are heavily degraded and will struggle to replace further losses.

Russian forces continued efforts to encircle Severodonetsk on May 26. Russian forces reportedly attempted to take control of Ustynivka, about 15 km southeast of Severodonetsk. Russian sources additionally reported that Russian troops are approaching Severodonetsk from Vojevodivka and Schedryshcheve (northeast of Severodonetsk) and that the northeast portion of the city is under Russian control. A Russian military reporter claimed that as many as 10,000 people may be trapped in the Severodonetsk-Lysychansk cauldron. Ukrainian troops have reportedly fortified their positions in the Zolote-Orikhiv area, where Russian troops have encircled them.

Russian forces continued persistent advances in Donetsk Oblast south and west of Popasna on May 26. Troops from the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics (DNR and LNR) claimed to have taken full control of Svitlodarsk and Midna Ruda, settlements off the M03 highway and within 30 km southeast of Bakhmut. Russian troops are reportedly fighting around Komyshuvakha, Nirkove, Berestove, Belohorivka, Pokrovske, Klynove, Lypove, and Nahirne and using these areas to advance toward Bakhmut. Russian forces conducted unsuccessful operations around Donetsk City in the vicinity of Avdiivka and continued to shell north and northwest of Avdiivka.

-Russian forces unsuccessfully attempted to advance southeast of Izyum near the Kharkiv-Donetsk Oblast border.

-Russian forces continued steady advances around Severodonetsk and likely seek to completely encircle the Severodonetsk-Lysychansk area in the coming days.

-Russian forces continued to make persistent advances south and west of Popasna toward Bakhmut, but the Russian pace of advance will likely slow as they approach the town itself.

-Russian forces in occupied areas of the Southern Axis are reportedly preparing a “third line of defense” to consolidate long-term control over the region and in preparation to repel likely future Ukrainian counteroffensives.

-Officials in Ukraine have admitted that Russia has the “upper hand” in fighting in the country’s east. The governor of the Luhansk region, Serhiy Haidai, said just 5% of the area now remained in Ukrainian hands – down from about 10% little more than a week ago – and that Ukrainian forces were retreating in some areas.

-Kharkiv has been hit by fresh strikes amid fears the city is still on Russia’s agenda. At least nine civilians were killed, including a child, and 19 injured, authorities said. “Today, the occupiers shelled Kharkiv again. At the moment, the list of the dead includes nine people. 19 wounded. All civilians,” Zelenskiy said. Residents have been urged to go to, or remain in, shelters.

-There are about 8,000 Ukrainian prisoners of war held in the Russian-backed self-proclaimed Luhansk and Donetsk People’s Republics, the Luhansk official Rodion Miroshnik has said. “That’s a lot, and literally hundreds are being added every day,” Miroshnik was quoted by the Russian Tass news agency as saying.

*** ECONOMIC & POLITICAL ***

-The US is preparing to send advanced, long-range rocket systems to Ukraine after an urgent request from Ukrainian officials, multiple officials reportedly told CNN. Kuleba said Ukraine’s most urgent need is for multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) to counter Russian superiority in heavy weaponry. Zelenskiy also referred to the weapons as “the systems that are really needed to stop this aggression” in his latest address. Senior Ukrainian officials, including President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba, have pleaded in recent weeks for the US and its allies to provide the Multiple Launch Rocket System, or MLRS. The US-made weapon systems can fire a barrage of rockets hundreds of kilometres — much farther than any of the systems Ukraine already has — which the Ukrainians argue could be a game-changer in their war against Russia. Earlier this week, Kuleba said Ukraine’s most urgent need is for multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) to counter Russian superiority in heavy weaponry. Another system Ukraine has asked for is the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, known as HIMARS, a lighter wheeled system capable of firing many of the same types of ammunition as MLRS.

-US officials are questioning Americans who travel to Ukraine to fight Russia, citing domestic security issues, reports Politico’s Besty Woodruff Swan and Christopher Miller: U.S. officials, worried about domestic security issues, have been questioning Americans at airports as they travel to Ukraine to fight Russia, according to an intelligence bulletin reviewed by POLITICO. The document shows that the U.S. government is gathering information about Americans traveling to Ukraine and is interested in their activity after they return. But critics say the focus on “violent extremist-white supremacists” echoes one of the Kremlin’s top propaganda points: that supporting Ukraine means also supporting neo-Nazis. It comes as Washington grapples with a messy challenge: dissuading Americans from fighting alongside soldiers who have received some of their training and many of their weapons from the U.S. itself. The Justice Department has not said whether it’s legal for Americans to join the Ukraine conflict. But no Americans are known to face criminal charges just for traveling to Ukraine to fight Russia, which invaded its neighbor on Feb. 24. This document shows that if law enforcement officials wanted to bring charges, they’ve had plenty of opportunities.

-Dmytro Kuleba, Ukraine’s Foreign Minister, said that “weapons, weapons and weapons again” are what the country needs.Russia still has a weapons advantage, and Ukraine needs “more heavy weapons. Without these, we won’t be able to push them back,”

-Israel has rejected as US request that it transfer advanced anti-tank missiles manufactured in Germany and based on Israeli technology to Ukraine's forces, according to defense officials quoted in Axios. The plan was to use Israel as a third party to "allow Berlin to supply Ukraine with anti-tank missiles produced in Germany with Israeli technology under an Israeli license," the report indicates.

-Russia has trained serving conscripts but won’t use them in Ukraine. This produces a severe manpower shortage which it is trying to dampen with a host of desperate halfway measures. Rounding up Donbass teachers, using the Rosgvardia police troops, disproportionally relying on Chechens, inviting South Ossetians… One of the desperation measures is courting ex-servicemembers (ex-pros and ex-conscripts alike) to return to the military for stints as short as 3 months, and be paid a staggering 300 thousand rubles per month. At the prewar exchange level that would be 3750 US dollars and is massive money for the Russian province. It is much higher than the normal salary of a contract soldier which is around $1000 (plus a combat bonus but I don’t know how large). Before Ukraine the shortest contract the Russian military would enter into was for 2 years of service.

-The Kremlin has rejected claims that Russia has blocked grain exports from Ukraine, blaming the west for creating such a situation by imposing sanctions on Russia.

-The deputy prime minister of the Russian-appointed Crimean government, Georgy Muradov, has said the Sea of Azov is “forever lost to Ukraine”. Russia’s Ria news agency also quoted a Russian-appointed official in the occupied Zaporizhzhia region as saying that the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions would never be returned to the control of the Kyiv.

-Antony Blinken, the US secretary of state, has said China’s cooperation with Vladimir Putin after his invasion of Ukraine “raises alarm bells”. Blinken criticised the Chinese president, Xi Jinping, for defending Putin’s “war to erase Ukraine’s sovereignty” and said it was “a charged moment for the world”.

-Russian troops occupying the south-eastern port city of Mariupol have cancelled school summer holidays to prepare pupils for switching to a Russian curriculum, according to officials. “The main goal is to eradicate everything Ukrainian and prepare for the new school year, which will be according to the Russian curriculum,” city official Petro Andryushchenko said.

-Alexander Lukashenko, the Belarusian president who is a close Putin ally, has ordered the creation of a new military command for the south of the country bordering Ukraine. The Belarusian armed forces previously said they would deploy special operations troops in three areas near its southern border with Ukraine. Lukashenko has also talked up the role of Russian-made missiles in boosting the country’s defences.

-After being accused of using the food supply as blackmail and a bargaining chip, Russia said Wednesday its military will open up protected sea corridors for international shipping to pass through from seven Ukrainian ports that have thus far been blockaded. According to a defense ministry statement reported by Bloomberg late in the day, "Humanitarian maritime corridors from ports on the Black Sea and Azov Sea, including Odesa, will operate from 8 a.m. to 7 p.m. daily." The announcement comes two days after the head of the United Nations World Food Program David Beasley ripped Moscow for what he dubbed a "declaration of war" on global food security. He's been urging "political solution" to the crisis of blocked Black Sea ports, saying the war in 'the world's breadbasket' threatens to unleash "famine, the destabilization of nations as well as mass migration by necessity." Millions of people in 43 countries dependent on grain from the war-torn region are "knocking on famine’s door," he said.

Some one-third of global wheat supplies originate from Ukraine and Russia, with the bulk of it passing through the Black Sea. On Wednesday Russia said it remains ready and willing to work with the West to reach a solution, but that easing sanctions is a necessity: However, Russia has stressed that its military is engaged in extensive and complex demining operations due thousands of mines dotting Ukraine's coast placed by Ukrainian forces, making international shipping dangerous and impossible.

-Tight supplies of natural gas, crude, and coal have pushed up residential electricity rates this year. A nationwide weather outlook for this summer forecasts extreme heat -- all of this will force households to crank up their air conditions, resulting in oversized power demand that could stress national grids. Bloomberg cites new data from Barclays Plc that says monthly power bills could be 40% more than last year's. The US Energy Information Administration expects retail residential electricity rates to increase the most since 2008.

-Russia’s foreign ministry spokesperson, Maria Zakharova, said an Italian peace plan for Ukraine was a “fantasy”. Zakharova said at her weekly briefing: “You can’t supply Ukraine with weapons with one hand and come up with plans for a peaceful resolution of the situation with the other.”

-Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Andrei Rudenko, said Moscow is ready to provide a humanitarian corridor for vessels carrying food to leave Ukraine, in return for the lifting of some sanctions. Ukraine’s Black Sea ports have been blocked since Russia invaded, with more than 20 million tonnes of grain stuck in silos in the country. Ukrainian foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, poured scorn on Moscow’s claim and accused Russia of trying to “blackmail the world”.

-Russian forces have launched fresh assaults on towns in eastern Ukraine, with the city of Sievierodonetsk increasingly in danger of being totally encircled. The governor of Luhansk region, Serhiy Haidai, said the area was now without gas supplies and had limited water and electricity after the last gas supply station was hit.

-U.S. natural gas futures hit highs not seen since 2008 amid EU export demand, serious concerns of a sweltering summer, and the possibility stockpiles might not be refilled ahead of the heating season. Futures for June delivery were up over 2%, topping $9. One driver of soaring prices is supply tightness. Weather forecasters predict a summer of heatwaves that could force households and businesses to crank up their air conditioners. There's also the concern about power grid strains where hydroelectricity and coal supplies are limited, which will increase the use of natgas power generation. A surge in natgas demand this summer could result in the inability of U.S. stockpiles to replenish ahead of the heating season.

-Oil prices are higher overnight following API's report of a small crude build and large gasoline draw and the ongoing geo-economic push-pull. "The oil market remains caught between fears of recession and the consequences of the zero-Covid policy in China on the one hand, and tight supply, especially of oil products, coupled with the prospect of US gasoline demand picking up during the summer driving season on the other," Commerzbank analyst Carsten Fritsch said in a note. All eyes for now are on the official inventoryu data and any signs of demand destruction.

The official DOE data showed a significantly smaller gasoline draw than API and also showed a slightly bigger than expected crude draw. This was still the 8th straight week of gasoline draws (and 15th of last 16 weeks). Distillate inventories rose by the most since Jan 2022. Crude stocks at Cushing, Oklahoma, have resumed their slide, falling for a third straight week and dropping below 25 million barrels again. Many traders think critical levels at Cushing are likely around the 22 million-barrel level, so this will be closely watched heading into the summer months. Gasoline stocks remain dramatically below normal for this time of year.

-The data that got some heads, and markets, turning yesterday was US new home sales, which slumped 16.6% m-o-m and 26.9% y-o-y to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 591,000 in April, the lowest level since April 2020. Economists had expected a figure of 748,000. Yes, this is always a very choppy series, but the drop was widespread: -5.9% in the Northeast, -15.1% in the Midwest, -19.8% in the South, and -13.8% in the West. That’s synchronicity which takes me back to a conversation I had with a Russian-American in mid-2006 when working at another bank, who explained why the US housing market was so vast that it was mathematically impossible for all homes to ever do anything --bad!-- at the same time, and so US mortgage-backed securities were the safest of investments. I kept up a rictus grin, as at that time I had been writing for years about a looming US housing crash, the Western replay of Asia’s 1997 crisis, which the traders around me were disinterested in hearing about: they had brought the guy in to explain how to profit from MBS sales. Relatedly, today has seen Michael Burry, of ‘The Big Short’ fame, tweet: ‘As I said about 2008, it is like watching a plane crash. It hurts, it is not fun, and I’m not smiling.’ Once again I agree with him.

Of course, there was no sign of a property slump in the April sales report – quite the opposite. Prices soared yet again, reaching a median of $450,600 vs. $435,000 in the prior month. That is 3.6% m-o-m, which is 43% y-o-y if you annualized(!) That is a trend that has been going on for some time: according to First American's chief economist, in April 2021, 25% of new-home sales were priced below $300,000, but in April 2022, only 10% of new home sales were. This is part of ‘the strong economy’ the Fed keeps talking about, which is very 1997/2008 redux – as is their inability to understand what is actually going on (again).

-A week ago, we made note of a May 11 New York Times news article, documenting that all was not going well for the U.S. in Ukraine, and a companion opinion piece hinting that a shift in direction might be in order. Now on May 19, “THE EDITORIAL BOARD,” the full Magisterium of the Times, has moved from hints to a clarion call for a change in direction in an editorial uninformatively titled, “The War Is Getting Complicated, and America Isn’t Ready.” From atop the Opinion page the Editorial Board has declared that “total victory” over Russia is not possible and that Ukraine will have to negotiate a peace in a way that reflects a “realistic assessment” and the “limits” of U.S. commitment. The Times serves as one the main shapers of public opinion for the Elite and so its pronouncements are not to be taken lightly.

-The US State Department has raised deep concerns about reports of a planned Turkish military offensive in northern Syria, saying they worry about the civilian population, and that more fighting would put the US troops there at risk. The area of northern Syria being targeted includes a lot of Kurdish territory. The Turkish government is constantly at odds with the local YPG, and the US statement acknowledged "Turkey’s legitimate security concerns." State Department spokesperson Ned Price said Tuesday, "We are deeply concerned about reports and discussions of potential increased military activity in northern Syria, and in particular, its impact on the civilian population there." "We recognize Turkey's legitimate security concerns on Turkey's southern border, but any new offensive would further undermine regional stability and put at risk US forces and the coalition’s campaign against ISIS," he said.

-Russian lawmakers have voted to approve a new law that would eliminate age limits for military contract soldiers. Military experts say Russia is facing unsustainable troop and equipment losses in Ukraine after a series of military setbacks that have forced Moscow to reduce its war aims.

-Ukraine’s foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, accused Nato of “doing literally nothing” in the face of Russia’s invasion of his country. Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Kuleba praised the EU for its “revolutionary” decisions to back Kyiv but said the Nato military alliance had been “completely sidelined”.

-Sweden is “obviously” not funding or arming terrorist organisations, its prime minister, Magdalena Andersson, said, in response to Turkish claims that it is a hotbed for terrorist groups. Her remarks came as Finnish and Swedish delegations began talks with Ankara today, which Andersson said would provide an opportunity to clear up what she said was “confusion” circulating about Swedish support for different groups

-Norway should share the “gigantic” profits it’s recently made as a result of higher oil and gas prices, especially with Ukraine, said Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki. Morawiecki, answering a question about his government’s energy policy Sunday at a meeting of a youth group, said coal-reliant Poland plans to switch to renewables and nuclear energy, while shedding oil and gas deliveries from Russia and at some point from “Arab” countries as well. “But should we be paying Norway gigantic money for gas — four or five times more than we paid a year ago? This is sick,” he said. “They should share these excess profits. It’s not normal, it’s unjust. This is an indirect preying on the war started by Putin.” Poland will later this year complete a gas pipeline from Norway that’s set to help it replace the supply of the fuel from Russia — cut last month following Poland’s refusal to pay in rubles.

COVID CASES USA 7-DAY AVG
107,787 MAY 24 2022
24,769 MAY 24 2021