Aussy Cory Bernardi Reads My Mind

Russia/Ukraine War Update - July 27th, 2022

The first echelon with PLA armored vehicles arrived in Russia. On July 25, 2022, the military echelon of the People's Liberation Army of China (PLA) arrived at the Zabaikalsk station with equipment to participate in the "Tank Biathlon", which will be held in Alabino near Moscow as part of the International Army Games. The echelon includes platforms with Type-96B tanks, special repair and maintenance equipment, wagons with logistics and standard ammunition. The advance group arrived on the same echelon, including tank drivers and the engineering and technical staff of the PLA team participating in the "Tank Biathlon".

Following the Chinese tankmen, servicemen of the Tibetan Military District of the Western Zone of the PLA Combat Command are moving to Russia, who will take part in the international competition of mountain units "Elbrus Ring" and the international competition of military motorists "Masters of Armored Vehicles" at Army Games-2022. For the first time, Chinese military personnel will bring to Russia third-generation Dongfeng Warrior armored vehicles, which have been massively entering service with the PLA since 2018.

-A key Russian-held bridge into the occupied southern city of Kherson has been hit with a barrage of rocket fire by Ukrainian forces, who appeared to be stepping up operations to isolate the city. Video and witness accounts showed up to 18 detonations on the Antonivskiy Bridge over the Dnieper river, one of the main Russian resupply routes into Kherson, with Russian anti-missile air defences apparently failing to intercept the strikes. There were also reports that a railway bridge was targeted. Authorities in the occupied Kherson region have closed the bridge to traffic, but said it was structurally sound and that repairs would begin shortly.

-The UK’s Ministry of Defence has said “Russian private military company Wagner has likely succeeded in making tactical advances in the Donbas around the Vuhlehirska power plant and the nearby village of Novoluhanske. Some Ukrainian forces have likely withdrawn from the area.”

-Russia has “definitively” lost the initiative in the battle for the Donbas in Ukraine, according to western officials. Moscow will not take the eastern industrial heartland in the “immediate future”, one official said, but “they are not just going to give up and go home”.

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-Senior members of the Conservative Party are backing the prospect of outgoing British Prime Minister Boris Johnson becoming the next NATO secretary general, The Telegraph has reported. The current chief of the US-led military bloc Jens Stoltenberg is “widely expected to stand down in September next year,” leaving the high-profile defense position open, the paper said.

-China may use warplanes and missile drills in order to prevent Speaker of the US House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi from visiting Taiwan, multiple reports have said. The California Democrat has neither confirmed nor denied plans to go to the island next month after media reports. Beijing could declare a no-fly zone or restrict navigation by conducting military exercises near the Taiwan Strait, forcing Pelosi’s aircraft “to make a detour,” the South China Morning Post reported on Wednesday, citing military experts. CNN similarly quoted a White House official on Friday as voicing concern that China may announce a no-fly zone in an attempt to derail Pelosi’s possible trip. The New York Times quoted US officials on Monday as saying that China could send warplanes to “escort” Pelosi’s aircraft and prevent it from landing.

-Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky has told British broadcaster Piers Morgan that inflation and coronavirus are “nothing” compared to Ukraine’s struggle, and Americans should support aid for Kiev “until we win.”

-German arms manufacturer Krauss-Maffei Wegmann (KMW) has struck a deal with the Ukrainian government that would see the firm produce and supply Kiev with as many as 100 PzH 2000 self-propelled howitzers, Der Spiegel reported on Wednesday, citing a company representative. Berlin approved the sale in just two days, the paper said.

-Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz suggested his country could launch a strike against Iran’s nuclear program, calling it “a global problem” at a conference on Tuesday. He also criticized the 2015 nuclear deal – abandoned by the US in 2018 – and the possibility of its revival, though the negotiations to that effect don’t seem to be going anywhere. 

-US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Wednesday that the US has made a “substantial offer” to Russia to secure the release of basketball player Brittney Griner and convicted spy Paul Whelan. According to a CNN report, the offer involves trading Russian arms dealer Viktor Bout for the two Americans. “In the coming days I expect to speak to Russian Foreign Minister [Sergey] Lavrov … I plan to raise an issue that’s a top priority for us, the release of America’s Paul Whelan and Brittney Griner,” Blinken told reporters. “Our governments have communicated repeatedly and directly on that proposal, and I’ll use the conversation to follow up personally.”

-Beijing pushed back on Tuesday against a proposal by US Senator Marco Rubio who wants to sanction any entity that purchases oil or other energy supplies from Russia and delivers them to China. China “is always against unilateral, illegal sanctions and long-arm jurisdiction that have no basis in international law,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian told reporters during a regular press briefing. He added that Beijing and Moscow “are engaged in normal economic and trade cooperation” that is not aimed against “any third parties and is not affected by external interference.” “The senator…[Rubio] is known to blame China for everything and knows no political ethics,” Zhao said.

-A bipartisan group of three US senators urged Meta’s Facebook, Twitter and Telegram to do a better job of stopping Russian efforts to spread Spanish-language disinformation about the invasion of Ukraine. Senators Bob Menendez, chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, sent the letters, dated Wednesday, along with Senators Tim Kaine, also a Democrat, and Bill Cassidy, a Republican.

-The Ukrainian government on Tuesday asked Washington to provide Kyiv with a "lend-lease" program to import natural gas from the US to ensure Ukraine has enough gas for heating this winter, Prime Minister Denis Shmyhal indicated. The idea is for the US to provide gas to Ukraine and collect payment at a later time, similar to the World War II-era lend-lease program that was revived this year to facilitate military aid to Ukraine. "Preparation for the most difficult winter in our history continues, and in this preparation we are looking for all possible tools to be ready for any scenario," Shmyhal wrote on Telegram. According to Foreign Policy, one of the proposals that has been floated by Ukrainian officials would be for the US to provide Ukraine with 6 billion cubic meters of liquefied natural gas (LNG) without collecting payment for two years. The US would deliver the LNG to terminals in Europe, where it will be shipped to Ukraine via pipeline. It’s estimated that the 6 billion cubic meters of LNG would cost about $8 billion. So far, the US has authorized $54 billion to spend on the war in Ukraine, more than half of which is for military aid. But the US is expected to spend more as the current funding is only meant to last through September 30.

-If House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) follows through on her planned trip to Taiwan, the US military will beef up security in case a 'mishap, misstep or misunderstanding' endangers her safety, AP reports. While the trip is still an uncertainty, officials say that the military would 'increase its movement of forces and assets in the Indo-Pacific region,' though they declined to go into further detail - aside from noting that fighter jets, ships, surveillance assets and other military systems would be used 'to provide overlapping rings of protection' for her flight, and any time she spent on the ground. The American aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan and its strike group, including a guided missile destroyer and a guided missile cruiser, set out from Singapore on Monday heading northeast towards the South China Sea, according to ship-tracking information provided by Beijing-based think tank the South China Sea Strategic Probing Initiative.

-Simon Tisdall, The Guardian, UK writes:

“He [Putin] has weaponized food, energy and refugees, spreading economic and political pain across the continent. Sanctions don’t work, a land for peace deal would be a disaster. Only the military route remains.”

Tisdall seems to be advocating for direct NATO intervention. It is interesting that the country that is the farthest away and most isolated from the conflict is the loudest voices for escalating that conflict. When the Poles are in favor of it, only then will it mean something.

-With PMIs sinking rapidly and macro surprise indices crashing, analysts finally lost the faith and after months of expectations for continued rises in US durable goods orders, in June consensus finally dipped to -0.4% for May. It turns out that for the second consecutive month, they were 'under'-optimistic as durable goods orders surged 1.9% MoM, up more than double from 0.8% in May, and rose a generous 11.8% YoY NSA. Ok fine, but it is the headline data that feeds into GDP, so we should at least find out what caused the transportation-related burst? And the answer is two fold: first, transportation new orders jumped 5.1% MoM as US automakers apparently got a new batch of chips allowing them to complete whatever legacy production was halted. But a far bigger reason for the surge in headline durables was a much simpler one: the war in Ukraine. That's right, as the chart below shows, the monthly increase in Defense aircraft and parts Durable new orders soared by $10.5 billion (not seasonally adjusted), the third biggest print on record, and not too far off the $13.4 billion record set in the weeks after the Sept 11 war.

-Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy has nominated Andriy Kostin, a lawmaker from the president’s political party, to be the country’s next prosecutor general. Reuters reports Zelenskiy submitted a formal request to parliament for the assembly to vote to confirm Kostin’s appointment. He would replace Iryna Venediktova, who was removed as prosecutor general earlier this month.

-The first train with sanctioned goods has arrived from Russia to Kaliningrad via Lithuania in the first such trip since the European Union said Lithuania must allow Russian goods across its territory, according to the regional governor. The train reportedly consisted of 60 freight cars with cement.

-On Tuesday Israel's defense chief issued a surprise admission connected to the war in Syria, specifically related to the literally hundreds of strikes Israel's air force has conducted on targets in Syria over the past few years. Defense Minister Benny Gantz described an incident in May wherein Israeli military jets operating over Syria were engaged and fired on by a Russian anti-aircraft battery. He said the Russian missiles missed their target, downplaying it as a "one-off incident". Israel has of late semi-regularly attacked positions in and around Damascus, especially to the south and near the Golan Heights, claiming to be targeting "Iranian assets" and weaponry. Last month for example, Syria was forced to halt all flights from Damascus international airport, the country's largest, following Israeli airstrikes that destroyed runways and crucial infrastructure, earning severe condemnation from Moscow.

-Russia has announced it plans to hold large-scale military exercises in a far eastern district next month. As Reuters comments of the planned drills, they will be held "thousands of miles from the war it is waging in Ukraine." A Tuesday defense ministry statement said the military's ability to conduct major drills remained unaffected by the "special operation" in neighboring Ukraine, a war which is now six months in. Describing that the armed forces haven't had to cancel or cut its routine drills, the MoD statement said, "We draw your attention to the fact that only a part of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation is involved in the special military operation (in Ukraine), the number of which is quite sufficient to fulfil all the tasks set by the Supreme Commander-in-Chief." Very likely Vostok 2022 will include the participation of China and Mongolia, just as in the past.

-The Hungarian government has set up a new Defense Council led by Prime Minister Viktor Orban which has been given special decision-making authority, the PM’s press secretary Bertalan Havasi announced on Tuesday. As quoted by Hungarian news agency MTI, Havasi explained that the council was created in response to the military conflict in Ukraine and the ensuing economic crisis in Europe. He also noted that increased pressure from migration had made it necessary to pay special attention to protecting Hungary’s security and sovereignty in the coming years. The council will deal with proposals and reports regarding national security, public safety, border controls, national defense, migrant cases, natural disaster protections, counter-terrorism efforts and defense developments. "The Defense Council is a forum for government political decision-making with special powers, the chairman is the prime minister, and the secretary is the chief national security adviser," Havesi explained.

-Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto on Thursday said he didn’t discuss during his visit to Moscow the possibility of a meeting between his country’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban and Russian President Vladimir Putin. He made the statement at a news conference following a meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. "As for the summit, I don't have that mandate," Szijjarto said to a question from a reporter of the Hungarian news agency MTI. My mandate [at the talks in Moscow] applies only to gas purchases."

-Gerhard Schröder is in Moscow. According to SPIEGEL information, the talks are about gas deliveries through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline. He traveled to Russia via Baku.

-Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni has defended his country’s relationship with Russia, as Moscow’s top diplomat toured Africa to rally support over the war in Ukraine. “How can we be against somebody who has never harmed us,” the Ugandan leader said alongside Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov at a press conference in the town of Entebbe, according to Agence France-Presse. “If Russia makes mistakes, we tell them. When they have not made mistakes, we can’t be against them,” he added, hailing Russia for backing anti-colonial movements in Africa.

-Ukraine aims to strike a deal for a $15-$20bn programme with the International Monetary Fund before year-end to help shore up its war-torn economy, the country’s central bank governor Kyrylo Shevchenko told Reuters. Battered by Russia’s invasion, Ukraine faces a 35%-45% economic contraction in 2022 and a monthly fiscal shortfall of $5bn and is heavily reliant on foreign financing from its western partners.

-US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has greenlit plans to treat injured Ukrainian soldiers at a US military hospital in Germany, CNN reported on Tuesday. Wounded personnel can now be hospitalized at an EU-based facility. According to a memo obtained by the outlet, Ukrainian soldiers would be taken to Landstuhl Regional Medical Center, not far from the French border. Up to 18 service personnel can apparently undergo treatment at the facility at any given time.

-The Ukrainian government has published a list of politicians, academics, and activists who it claims promote "Russian propaganda". Absurdly, it includes high American officials - even a sitting US senator - and a Pulitzer Price winning journalist. A Kiev government-linked agency called the Ukrainian Center for Countering Disinformation released the list earlier this month, identifying figures such as Republican Senator Rand Paul, former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI), military analyst Edward Luttwak, University of Chicago professor and international relations theorist John Mearsheimer, and award-winning journalist Glenn Greenwald, formerly of The Intercept, among many others. A number of notable international names are on the list as well, such as French populist political leader Marine Le Pen, or even an Italian General named General Leonardo Tricarico, who blames Ukraine for Russia's invasion and has urged immediate negotiations to end the war. Some of those on the list, such as Edward Luttwak, have actually loudly supported sending Western arms to Ukraine's military. In Luttwak's case, he was apparently deemed by Ukrainian officials a 'pro-Russian propagandist' merely for proposing a war-time compromise of allowing referendums in the breakaway Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

-On Tuesday morning, the Biden administration said it will sell an additional 20 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve held in hollowed-out salt caverns on the coasts of Louisiana and Texas, as part of the previous plan to tap the facility to lower oil prices, and bringing total sales to 200 million. The sales will take place in September and October, and are set to conclude just days before the November midterm elections. It wasn't clear how much of the incremental barrels will go to China.

-Despite damaging Western sanctions imposed on Moscow in the wake of the invasion of Ukraine, Russia’s economy appears to be weathering the storm better than expected as it benefits from high energy prices, the International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday, Agence France Presse reports. The sanctions were meant to sever Russia from the global financial system and choke off funds available to Moscow to finance the war. But the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook upgraded Russia’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimate for this year by a remarkable 2.5%, although its economy is still expected to contract by 6%.

-European natural gas futures extended gains by 12% after Russian state-owned energy producer Gazprom PJSC unexpectedly announced it would halt a Nord Stream 1 turbine at its Portovaya compressor station from Wednesday. Simultaneously, US NatGas futures have spiked to 14-year highs. Russian NatGas supplies to Europe via Nord Stream pipeline fell to 38% capacity from 40% on Tuesday, ahead of a more significant cut from current levels to just 20% on Wednesday. In a statement, Gazprom said the Nord Stream pipeline would be pumping 33 million cubic meters a day, or 20% of capacity, from Wednesday, adding another turbine for the pipeline will be taken offline due to maintenance work. 

-EU member states have agreed to ration gas this winter, in an attempt to avoid an energy crisis generated by further Russian cuts to supply. Energy ministers from the 27 member states mostly backed a plan for a voluntary 15% reduction in gas usage over the winter, but added in several opt-outs for island nations and countries unconnected or little connected to the European gas network, which will blunt the overall effect. The European Commission had suggested that a collective 15% gas savings target would reduce gas consumption by 45bn cubic metres. Once exemptions are taken into account the final bcm tally will be lower, after a revolt led by southern European countries that use less or no Russian gas.

-Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will hold a one-day visit to the Russian resort of Sochi on 5 August, his office has just announced. Reuters reports that no further details were immediately available, but it is anticipated that he would meet with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin.

-Ukraine’s Naftogaz has become the first Ukrainian government entity to default since Russia’s invasion of its smaller southern neighbour five months ago, after the state-owned energy firm failed to make payments due on international bonds before the expiry of a grace period on Tuesday, Reuters reports. The company said in a statement that it had failed to get creditors’ support for a proposal to freeze payments on some of its bonds for two years which it had launched last week.

-The Biden administration has estimated that it may need almost $7 billion from Congress to respond to the spread of monkeypox, given “the scope and urgency of the current situation,” the Washington Post reported on Tuesday, citing a White House memo.

-Hair loss, reduced libido and sexual dysfunction are among a wide range of symptoms that can follow a Covid-19 infection, a new study released on Monday suggests. According to a peer-reviewed study in the Nature Medicine journal, the most common long Covid symptoms include loss of smell, fatigue and shortness of breath. However, hair growth and libido can also be impaired, among other previously unrecognized symptoms.

Russia/Ukraine War Update - July 26th, 2022

*** MILITARY SITUATION ***

 -Russia’s armed forces destroyed eight Ukrainian missile and artillery arms depots in the southern Mykolaiv region and in the eastern Donetsk region, the defence ministry said in its daily briefing on Tuesday. Ukrainian officials said earlier on Tuesday that Russia launched a “massive missile strike” against the south of the country overnight, including hits against infrastructure in the black sea port of Mykolaiv.

-Ukrainian forces have bombed a customs checkpoint in the Sevsky district of Russia’s Bryansk region using an explosive dropped from a quadcopter drone, according to the region’s governor.

-Russia is moving convoys of military equipment to Kherson, Ukraine’s military claims. In an operation update posted to the armed forces of Ukraine’s Telegram on Monday evening, the military said convoys of military equipment were seen moving through Melitopol, in the direction of Kherson.

-A major fire broke out at an oil depot in the Budyonnovsky district of the Russian-backed Donetsk People’s Republic in eastern Ukraine after Ukrainian troops shelled the province, according to local media reports.

-The UK’s Ministry of Defence has said it believes that Russia is experiencing a “critical shortage” of ground-attack missiles, even as it advances on Kramatorsk and Siversk.

-The US believes that Russia’s military is sustaining hundreds of casualties a day in its war in Ukraine, and has lost thousands of lieutenants and captains in total, a senior US defence official said on Friday. The official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, told Reuters that the US also believed Ukraine had destroyed more than 100 “high-value” Russian targets inside Ukraine, including command posts, ammunition depots and air-defence sites.

-Ukraine predicts that it will recapture the southern region of Kherson by September. Sergiy Khlan, an aide to the head of Kherson region, said in an interview with Ukrainian television: “We can say that the Kherson region will definitely be liberated by September, and all the occupiers’ plans will fail.” President Volodymyr Zelenskiy also said Ukrainian forces were moving “step by step” into Kherson. However, other reports suggest Ukrainian soldiers are doing well just to hold the front line in nearby villages.

-In its daily operational briefing, Russia’s ministry of defence has claimed that it repelled two Ukrainian landing craft attempting to cross the Dnieper river into the occupied southern part of the Kherson region. It claimed that the boats and the “saboteurs on board” were destroyed. The ministry also claims to have shot down six unmanned drones, and to have destroyed a depot being used as a transport hub for US-supplied Himars ammunition.

-The UK’s Ministry of Defence has issued its intelligence briefing on the position in Ukraine. It claims: Inconclusive fighting continues in both the Donbas and Kherson sectors. Russian commanders continue to face a dilemma; whether to resource the offensive in the east, or to bolster the defence in the west.

-Ukrainian forces have destroyed 50 Russian ammunition depots using US-supplied Himars rocket systems in the war with Russia, Ukrainian defence minister Oleksiy Reznikov said on Monday. 

-Ukrainian military officials have claimed a “turning point” in the battle to retake the southern region of Kherson, saying they will use western weapons to liberate by September the first major city captured by Russian forces. Sergiy Khlan, an aide to the administrative head of the Kherson region, said in an interview with Ukrainian television on Sunday: “We can say that a turning point has occurred on the battlefield. We are switching from defensive to counteroffensive actions.”

-Ukraine said it destroyed 50 Russian ammunition depots using the US-supplied high mobility artillery rocket systems (Himars) on Monday. The systems, delivered late last month, have turned the war in Ukraine’s favour by dismantling Russia’s logistics and slowing down its offensive, say Ukrainian authorities. “This cuts [Russian] logistical chains and takes away their ability to conduct active fighting and hit our armed forces with heavy shelling,” Ukraine’s minister of defence, Oleksii Reznikov, said.

-On the frontlines, the Ukrainian military reported widespread Russian artillery barrages in the east overnight Sunday-Monday and said Moscow’s troops were preparing for a new assault on Bakhmut, a city in the industrial Donbas region, Reuters reports.

*** ECONOMIC & POLITICAL ***

-Ukraine has received its first shipment of German ‘Gepard’ anti-aircraft systems, as well as thousands of rounds of suitable ammunition, according to a statement made by Defense Minister Aleksey Reznikov on Monday. “We are waiting for the first 15 Gepards. Three have arrived in Ukraine today. They are already at the disposal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine,” Reznikov said on national television. “These are anti-aircraft systems, for which tens of thousands of rounds of ammunition have been transferred to us.” 

-Slovakia’s NATO allies would need to offer money or replacement fighters if they expect Bratislava to send a dozen MiG-29 jets to Ukraine at the end August, Defense Minister Jaroslav Nad said on Monday. Speaking alongside his British colleague Ben Wallace, who urged Slovakia to send more weapons to Kiev, Nad said his government is open to discussion, but would not commit to anything.

-MOSCOW, 25 July. /TASS/. The FSB of Russia disrupted the operation of the Ukrainian military intelligence to hijack the planes of the Russian Aerospace Forces, which was supervised by the NATO special services. This was reported to TASS on Monday at the Center for Public Relations (CSP) of the FSB of Russia. "The Federal Security Service uncovered and stopped the operation of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine to hijack combat aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces, supervised by NATO special services," the CSO noted.

The FSB reported that "Ukrainian military intelligence officers, acting on behalf of the political leadership of their country, tried to recruit Russian military pilots for a monetary reward and guarantees of obtaining citizenship of one of the EU countries, to persuade them to fly and land aircraft at airfields controlled by the Armed Forces of Ukraine." As noted in the special service, the identification of these plans by the counterintelligence of the FSB also made it possible to strike at a number of Ukrainian military facilities. "In the course of the operational game, Russian counterintelligence officers obtained information that helped our armed forces inflict fire damage on a number of Ukrainian military facilities," the FSB said. In addition, employees of the Ukrainian special services involved in the operation and their accomplices have been identified. From the FSB video with a conversation with a Ukrainian intelligence representative, it follows that the Russian Aerospace Forces were ready to pay up to $2 million for the hijacked plane.

-A few hours after the revelations about the failed Ukrainian secret operation to hijack Russian fighter airplanes were published, Bellingcat's lead Russia investigator Christo Grozev added a few more excuses for his deep involvement in the failed clandestine scheme:

Christo Grozev @christogrozev - 14:52 UTC · Jul 25, 2022 - The Ukrainian operation was not a project of either SBU or GUR. (If it were, there'd be no way we would - or want to - get access to it). It was organized by maverick ex operatives whom we got to know in the Wagner investigation. So all the Russian statements from today - claiming this was a "GUR" (Military Intel) operation "with support from NATO" - total, unadulterated bollocks. The whole of the FSB CI were fighting tooth and nail against a bunch of, essentially, volunteers. And not for the first time.

In a weird coincidence ...

16:27 UTC · Jul 25, 2022 - Zelensky has removed Ruslan Demchenko from his position as First Deputy Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council & dismissed Grigoriy Galagan as commander of the AFU Special Operations Forces, replacing him with Viktor Horenko

-The United States has canceled its participation in major annual naval drills which were set to take place on the Black Sea, citing the dangerous regional situation amid the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine. The Sea Breeze 2022 exercise which takes place in July every year was "canceled due to Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine," according to a US Navy statement given to Newsweek Monday. However, in reality it is only the US military's full participation in Sea Breeze that was suspended - not the entirety of the exercise itself. he Navy had previously called the war games "essential" during last year's drills involving 32 warships, including a large US missile destroyer. Ironically the US Navy cast last year's drill as crucial for deterring potential Russian aggression against Ukraine. 

-CIA Director William Burns said he is “very proud” of the agency’s analysis in Afghanistan in 2021 despite being blindsided by the swift collapse of the Afghan government and failing to predict how quickly the Taliban would take Kabul. Burns said Wednesday during an Aspen Security Forum discussion that he was “very proud … of the analysis, with all of its imperfections, that we tried to provide to policymakers over the six months leading up to the withdrawal.” The CIA director prefaced this by admitting the agency had not predicted the Taliban would take over the country as fast as they did and that “all of us have lessons to learn from experiences like that.” He suggested that the CIA had at least gotten it less wrong than other parts of the U.S. government.

-EU member states have agreed an emergency plan to reduce the bloc's gas consumption in a bid to soften the impact of a potential total stoppage in Russian gas supplies, DPA has learned.

-Walmart (WMT) lowered its profit outlook for Q2 and FY23 primarily due to pricing actions aimed to improve inventory levels. Net sales include currency headwinds of roughly USD 1bln in Q2. Co. Expects a USD 1.8bln headwind in H2 '22. Walmart (WMT) shares fell over 9%, Amazon (AMZN) and Target (TGT) were also hit.

-Amazon (AMZN) to raise Prime subscription prices across Europe effective September 15th, according to a spokesman; price hike to be by 20% or more a year, according to Reuters. Prices will increase by 30% in Germany, 20% in the UK, and between 39-43% in Spain, Italy and France, according to Reuters.

-Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has continued to be an awkward thorn in the side of NATO and among Western allies, most recently calling on US forces to "withdraw from east of the Euphrates River" in Syria. He said this days ago upon returning from a controversial meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi in Tehran, where high on the agenda was the Astana process the three powers previously brokered for joint security tasks in northern Syria. "For once, America now should leave the east of Euphrates. This is the evaluation of the Astana process. They say that America should withdraw its troops from east of the Euphrates. This is also Türkiye's expectation," Erdogan had said in the remarks.

-The European Union has decided to renew its sanctions against Russia for a further six months, until the end of January 2023. The decision, a formality taken by EU energy ministers, refers to sanctions that were first introduced in 2014 and significantly expanded after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February this year.

-London's power grid was pushed to the brink of failure following last week's record-breaking heatwave. Javier Blas, a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering energy and commodities, said power grid disruption hit the eastern part of the British capital for a brief period on July 20 as air conditioners were turned down and spiked power demand, resulting in a bottleneck on the grid. British utilities had trouble pulling from other power-generating sources on the grid. They relied on Belgium via undersea water cables across the English Channel to increase power supply -- boosting power prices to a record high of £9,724.54 (about $11,685) per megawatt hour. This is more than 5,000% versus average power prices of £178 (about $215) per megawatt hour. 

-Russia’s Gazprom is set to cut gas supplies further after announcing a drastic cut to gas deliveries through its main pipeline to Europe from Wednesday. The company said it was halting the operation of one of the last two operating turbines due to the “technical condition of the engine”, cutting daily gas deliveries via the Nord Stream pipeline to 33m cubic metres a day – about 20% of the pipeline’s capacity.

-A South Carolina man serving as a medic in the Ukrainian military has been identified as one of two Americans killed in Ukraine last week. Luke ‘Skywalker’ Lucyszyn, a 31-year-old Myrtle Beach resident, died on 18 July in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region after he was knocked unconscious by an artillery strike and fatally shot by a Russian tank, his commander, Ruslan Miroshnichenko, said in a Facebook post on Monday. The US state department confirmed the deaths of two Americans in Ukraine on Friday but did not release their names or further details. Family and friends confirmed reports with the Associated Press that Lucyszyn was one of the men who died.

Lucyszyn’s longtime friend Trey Kober, of North Myrtle Beach, said Lucyszyn left for Ukraine in early April after telling close friends he felt a responsibility to defend his late grandmother’s homeland. Two weeks before his death, Lucyszyn said goodbye to Kober in an emotional Facebook message after he learned that his platoon would soon be sent to the more dangerous Donbas region. He was pretty confident he wouldn’t be coming back,” Kober said. “He sent us a serious message that said he was being sent to the frontlines to relieve a platoon that had been there for a long time, and he basically just told us, I’m not coming back from this. This is it.’”

-The US donated over 500,000 Covid-19 vaccine doses to Ukraine today, announced the US State department. “We are proud to support the people of Ukraine in their fight against COVID-19,” tweeted the State department.

-Russia’s Gazprom is set to cut supplies further through its single biggest gas link to Germany, crushing hopes a deal over grain supplies would lessen the economic impact of the Ukraine war. The European Union has accused Russia of resorting to energy blackmail, while the Kremlin says the gas disruption is the result of maintenance issues and western sanctions, Reuters reported.

-Russia’s top diplomat has said Moscow’s overarching goal is to topple the government of Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy as Russian air strikes continue to pummel cities across Ukraine. Speaking to envoys at an Arab League summit in Cairo on Sunday, Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov said Moscow is determined to help Ukrainians “liberate themselves from the burden of this absolutely unacceptable regime”.

-The record-high release of crude oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve will end as scheduled this fall, the White House's Special Presidential Coordinator for International Energy Affairs Amos Hochstein told Yahoo Finance. "We can't be an oil supplier. It's a reserve and so we have to keep that," Hochstein said, adding that he did not expect this to lead to price spikes because the oil industry was already preparing to increase production once the SPR release ended. "There's a little bit of hysteria at the moment in the analysis of oil markets," Hochstein said, adding that he had had conversations with oil companies and had their word they would increase production to replace the oil that is currently coming out of the SPR. The plan, announced in April, saw a total of 180 million barrels of crude being released from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to counter the inexorable increase in oil prices amid a tight market, at a rate of some 1 million bpd. Some of that oil reportedly ended up getting exported, including to China, which prompted some. When the plan was announced, there were warnings that it could backfire, pushing prices higher instead of lower because the SPR would need to be replenished after this substantial draw.

-The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Outlook Level of General Business Activity tumbled further in July, dropping to -22.6 from -17.7 (and worse than expected). New Orders and Inventories were the biggest driver of the further weakness, and CapEx fell for the 4th straight month, but it is the comments from survey respondents to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook survey that paint a truer picture than a single headline data point. The concerns of a looming recession have increased over the last month. With supply-chain issues continuing, the cost of raw materials remaining high and significant interest rate hikes, overall business activity has to slow. It is just a matter of when—which I believe is soon.

The economy is in shambles. There’s no way out that isn’t bad.

The building and construction market customers we supply are seeing a slowdown in activity.

November can't get here fast enough.

We are starting to see weakness in incoming orders. We are preparing for a further slowdown but hoping for the best.

Shifting from local pain to national pain, The Chicago Fed's National Activity Index signaled a second straight month of contraction in June (first time since early 2020). The smoothed index dropped into negative territory for the first time since May 2020. The index utilizes 85 individual indicators covering four broad categories of data: production and income; employment, unemployment, and hours; personal consumption and housing; and sales, orders, and inventories. In June, 41 of the 85 made a positive contribution while 44 made negative contributions.

-The United States and its Western allies intend to provide Ukraine with additional 25-to-30 rocket systems, Adam Smith, the head of the Armed Forces Сommittee of the US House of Representatives, revealed on Saturday. That will include both high mobility artillery rocket systems (HIMARS) and multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) from the UK and some other countries, Smith said in an interview with Radio Liberty. The committee chair admitted that the number of weapons is lower than what Kiev had requested but offered assurance that the US and its partners will provide as much artillery and missiles for the systems as possible.

-Europeans, and especially Germans, breathed a sigh of relief last Thursday when amid fears that Moscow would not restart flows along the Nord Stream 1 pipeline after its 10 day maintenance period, Putin turned the gas back on, if just to its pre-maintenance peak level of about 40% of maximum capacity. Alas Europe's muted celebration were not meant to last, and with many speculating that Russia was just waiting for the right opportunity to turn the screws on Germany, both literally and metaphorically, that's precisely what happened moments ago when shortly after Siemens finally delivered transport documents for the controversial Nord Stream turbine that had been stuck in Canada for weeks, Gazprom unexpectedly announced it would halt one more Nord Stream turbine at its Portovaya compressor station from July 27, “taking into account the technical conditions of the engine,” the Russian company says in a statement. This means that as had been whispered much of last week, gas flows from Portovaya will drop to as much as 33 million cubic meters per day from 7am Moscow time on July 27, which means flows along NS1 will decline by half, from 40% of capacity to just 20%.

-The UK government has drawn up emergency energy plans under which citizens could be asked to switch off their lights and turn down their thermostats to avoid blackouts this winter, the Telegraph has revealed. The plans would be enacted in case of a gas or electricity supply shortage, and the public would be asked to slash their energy consumption, the newspaper reported on Saturday. According to documents seen by the Telegraph, in such a scenario the British government would deliver messages at regular intervals via radio, television, social media as well as posters and leaflets, telling people to cut their electricity and gas usage.

-Turkey continues to be “a source of substantial irritation” for the administration of US president, Joe Biden, the New York Times has reported. According to the outlet, Ankara’s stance on the Ukraine crisis is part of a wider range of issues. Ankara’s involvement in the UN-brokered deal on Ukrainian grain exports between Moscow and Kiev a few days ago was welcomed by Washington, but didn’t mean that all problems in US-Turkish relations have been sorted out, the outlet warned in Saturday’s article. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been described in it as a “headache” and “a source of substantial irritation” for Washington.

-Poland is currently trying to replenish its weapon stockpiles after it transferred over 200 Soviet-era T-72 tanks to Ukraine for use in the conflict with Russia. Last week, Blaszczak announced the purchase of some 116 used M1 Abrams main battle tanks from the US, on top of a separate deal to procure 250 new tanks.

-US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has denied that the American economy is in recession, even though a report this week may confirm it by the most common definition, saying the nation is instead going through a “necessary and appropriate” slowdown. Yellen defended President Joe Biden’s economic policies in an NBC News interview on Sunday, arguing that a negative GDP report won’t mean that the world’s largest economy is in recession. The report is scheduled for release on Thursday and, following first-quarter contraction at an annual rate of 1.6%, the latest data may confirm that the economy is shrinking.

-Less than a month after Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a hugely controversial decree ordering that "all citizens of Ukraine" be given "the right to apply for admission to the citizenship of the Russian Federation in a simplified manner," Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Irina Vereschuk revealed on Friday that lawmakers intend to make obtaining Russian citizenship as a Ukrainian a criminal offense.

If the number of Ukes seeking Russian passports was insignificant, there would be no need for a law to stop them from doing so. Just as Ukraine is forcibly throwing people into its army, it is now attempting to keep its citizens from defecting through threats and coercion. This doesn't seem like winning to me. 

-Germany is back on course to meet its target of 75% gas storage levels by 1 September, according to Klaus Mueller, who is head of the Bundesnetzagentur gas regulator. Reuters reports he said that there were decent gas injection levels and gas importer Uniper had ended withdrawals from storage.

-Ukraine earlier warned that grain exports would not restart as hoped after the signing of a landmark deal aimed at easing the food crisis if a Russian airstrike on a key port on Saturday was a sign of things to come.

-Russia said Sunday that its missile barrage on a Ukrainian port central to a landmark grain export deal had destroyed Western-supplied weapons, after the attack sparked an outcry from Ukraine’s allies. “High-precision, long-range missiles launched from the sea destroyed a docked Ukrainian warship and a stockpile of anti-ship missiles delivered by the United States to the Kyiv regime,” Russia’s defense ministry said.

-In his daily conference call with reporters, the Kremlin’s press secretary, Dmitry Peskov, has denied that cruise missile strikes on Odesa will have any impact on the export of grain. Reuters quotes him saying “These strikes are connected exclusively with military infrastructure. They are in no way related to infrastructure that is used for the export of grain. This should not affect – and will not affect – the beginning of shipments.”

-Ukraine’s “International Legion” is suffering a shortage of recruits, according to the unit’s spokesperson Damien Magrou, who spoke to NBC News about the challenges facing foreign fighters on the front lines of the conflict between Kiev and Moscow. In an article published on Thursday, the Dutch lawyer who is currently serving as a corporal in the legion said that “there’s been a gradual dip in the number of arrivals over the course of the last few months, which isn’t very surprising given that attention in Western media has shifted elsewhere and the more motivated fighters made their decision in the beginning.” Magrou added that recruitment, reputation and fundraising have been negatively affected by “Russian disinformation,” and that the legion was “exploring avenues to widen” its recruiting efforts.

-Ukraine and Russia have signed a UN-backed deal to allow the export of millions of tonnes of grain from blockaded Black Sea ports, potentially averting a looming catastrophic global food crisis.

-Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov will begin an African tour in Egypt on Sunday, in the hope to establish closer ties as Moscow seeks new alliances amid international sanctions against Russia because of the war in Ukraine. In Egypt, which sources about a quarter of its wheat imports from Ukraine, Lavrov will meet Arab League members in Cairo, before he will travel to Ethiopia and Uganda, two countries whose relations with the West have come under strain, as well as Congo Republic, Reuters reports. Egypt has significant strategic and economic ties with Russia, which has been a key source in recent years of wheat, weaponry and - until the war complicated travel - tourists.

-On Friday, the US signed off on an additional $270 million in military aid to Ukraine including four new HIMAR (High Mobility Artillery Rocket) precision rocket systems. The new aid will total the number of M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems sent to Ukraine to 20. HIMARS can precisely strike targets within 80 kilometers (50 miles) - a game-changer in countering Russia. The White House also said that the new military package will also include 500 new Phoenix Ghosts, small and highly portable drones that detonate on their target, as well as 36,000 rounds of artillery ammunition. The White House also said that the new military package will also include 500 new Phoenix Ghosts, small and highly portable drones that detonate on their target, as well as 36,000 rounds of artillery ammunition.

-Israeli fighter jets launched a major attack on and near the Syrian capital of Damascus just after midnight Friday, killing three solders and wounding seven, which activated the Syrian military's anti-air defenses. While such brazen Israeli assaults on Syria have occurred almost weekly over the last months and even years, many have noticed the timing comes just after Russia's Vladimir Putin was in Iran where he met with his Iranian and Turkish counterparts.

-House Democrats have blocked a Republican effort to prevent the Biden administration from selling oil from the United States’ strategic reserve to entities with ties to the Chinese Communist Party.

-While US macro data continues to weaken - and on the heels of the eurozone's unexpected plunge into contraction - analysts still expected flash US Composite PMIs to increase modestly (from 52.3 to 52.4) with manufacturing weaker and services flat. They were very wrong...

S&P Global US Manufacturing July Flash slipped to 52.3 from 52.7 (better than the 52.0 expected) - lowest since Jul 2020

S&P Global US Services July Flash crashed to 47.0 from 52.7 (well below the 52.7 expected) - weakest since May 2020

Mirroring the eurozone plunge, the US Composite Index plunged into contraction - a 26-month low - signaling a notable contraction in the economy and suggesting a technical recession is imminent. “The preliminary PMI data for July point to a worrying deterioration in the economy. Excluding pandemic lockdown months, output is falling at a rate not seen since 2009 amid the global financial crisis, with the survey data indicative of GDP falling at an annualised rate of approximately 1%. Manufacturing has stalled and the service sector’s rebound from the pandemic has gone into reverse, as the tailwind of pent-up demand has been overcome by the rising cost of living, higher interest rates and growing gloom about the economic outlook.

-While the dumbest guys in the room - that would be energy advisors to the Biden admin (including Burisma consultant Hunter Biden), G7 and Europe - continue to push a Russian oil price cap plan, Russia is making it very clear what will happen if this step is implemented: “As far as I understand,” Russia won’t supply oil to those countries that impose price caps, Bank of Russia Governor Elvira Nabiullina tells news conference on Friday. She echoed Vladimir Putin, saying that imposition of price cap on Russian oil would raise global prices, and added that Russia is working on its own oil price benchmark. Her comments follow those from Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak who told state television on Wednesday that Russia will not supply oil to the global markets if the price cap being discussed is set at a level below Russia’s cost of production. 

-Germany energy giant and distressed natural gas utility Uniper, which is among the companies heavily exposed to Russian NatGas, secured a bailout with the German government, reported Bloomberg. Bailout terms call for state-owned lender KfW to receive a 30% stake in Uniper for 267 million euros with further capital up to 7.7 billion euros against the issuance of mandatory convertible instruments. KfW will provide an expanded credit line of 9 billion euros from 2 billion euros. The German government will introduce a cost absorption mechanism, covering 90% of all losses resulting from Uniper's losses resulting from skyrocketing cost of NatGas purchases as Nordstream flows were reduced. 

-Pelosi suggested that maybe the military worried China would shoot down her plane, but there’s no reason to believe that Beijing would even consider taking things that far. Here are her comments in context: "I think what the President was saying is - maybe the military was afraid our plane would get shot down or something like that by the Chinese," Pelosi responded. "I don't know exactly," she added. "I've heard it anecdotally, but I haven't heard it from the president." Pelosi declined to confirm if she was making the trip, citing security concerns, and said she never discusses her travel plans. "You never even hear me say if I’m going to London, because it is a security issue," she said.

-The Russian government has issued a statement this morning saying it has expanded its list of “unfriendly states”. Posting an order dated 20 July, the statement says: The government has updated the list of foreign states that commit unfriendly actions against Russian diplomatic and consular missions abroad. The list includes Greece, Denmark, Slovenia, Croatia and Slovakia.

-After calling on all member states to reduce gas consumption by 15% in the face of the threat of a complete Russian gas cutoff, the IEA says the European Union will need to cut even more in order to get through the winter. 

-Zelenskiy hails potential to inflict ‘significant new losses’ on Moscow’s forces. Ukraine has the potential to inflict major losses on Russia and make gains on the battlefield, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy claims. Speaking in a late-night video address after meeting with senior military commanders, he said the group discussed the supply of modern weapons, adding the intensity of attacks on the Russians had to be stepped up.

-A deal to resume Ukraine’s Black Sea grain exports is expected to be signed by Ukraine, Russia, Turkey and the United Nations on Friday. The agreement will be put in writing by the parties and signed at the Dolmabahce Palace offices at 1.30pm GMT, the office of the Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, said. Ukraine’s foreign ministry spokesperson, Oleg Nikolenko, added: “In summary, a document may be signed which will bind the sides to [ensure] safe functioning of export routes in the Black Sea.”

-Russia will support Africa to “complete the process of decolonisation”, its foreign minister has said. In statements released by Russia’s ministry of foreign affairs, Sergei Lavrov said Russia has always supported Africans “in their struggle for liberation from colonial oppression”. “We stand in solidarity with the demands to complete the process of decolonisation,” he added.

-Tensions have increased in the breakaway Transnistria region of Moldova in recent days, as yesterday marked the thirtieth anniversary of the signing of a peace accord that helped bring about the current status quo, where Transnistria is its own de facto unrecognised state, with a Russia garrison stationed there. Earlier this week there was a dispute between Chișinău and Moscow, after the Moldovans stopped Russian military officials at the border. Today, Russia RIA Novosti is carrying an interview with the breakaway region’s foreign minister, Vitaly Ignatiev, in which he says Transnistria intends to join the Russian Federation. It quotes him saying: The vector of Transnistria has remained unchanged throughout the years of the republic’s existence, which is reflected in the results of the referendum on 17 September 2006, where it is clearly indicated: independence with subsequent free accession to the Russian Federation. The independence of the country is an absolute priority. Were Transnistria to accede to Russia, that would place a Russian exclave on Ukraine’s western border, next to the Odesa oblast. Earlier in the current conflict, Transnistria claimed that it was being fired upon from Ukrainian territory, and explosions damaged radio transmitters inside Transnistria.

The Main Cathedral of the Russian Armed Forces

The Main Cathedral of the Russian Armed Forces (Cathedral of the Resurrection of Christ; Russian: Главный храм Вооружённых сил России (Храм Воскресения Христова)) is a lavish Russian Patriarchal cathedral in honour of the Resurrection of Christ and "dedicated to the 75th anniversary of victory in the Great Patriotic War, as well as the military feats of the Russian people in all wars", built in the Patriot Park in the Odintsovsky District, Moscow Oblast. The cathedral is built with donations and budget funds from the Moscow city government and the Moscow Oblast. It was consecrated as part of the celebration of the 75th anniversary of Soviet victory on the Eastern Front of World War II. An exhibition dedicated to the history of the Russian state and its armed forces will be located on-site.

The construction of the cathedral was completed on 9 May 2020, on the annual Victory Day. It was consecrated on 14 June and opened on 22 June 2020, on the Day of Remembrance and Sorrow.

Russia/Ukraine War Update - July 22nd, 2022

 *** MILITARY SITUATION ***

-Summary of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation for SMO (21072022)

According to the updated data, as a result of the strike on July 16 with high-precision weapons of the Russian Aerospace Forces on the temporary deployment point of nationalists in the recreation center "Empire" in the village of Konstantinovka, Odessa region, more than 600 militants were eliminated. Including up to 120 foreign mercenaries. In addition, according to updated data, as a result of a high-precision strike on July 17 at the temporary deployment point of the AFU unit on the territory of a vegetable base in the city of Nikolaev, more than 320 nationalists were destroyed.

Against the background of significant losses in the east of Ukraine, the residents of the western regions mobilized into the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine refuse to go to the Donbass. Thus, the servicemen of the 100th Territorial Defense Brigade in the city of Lutsk, Volyn region, in full refused to participate in hostilities. The command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has disarmed the brigade, the instigators have been arrested, and a decision has been made to re-form this compound.

The strikes by operational-tactical and army aviation, missile troops and artillery against military facilities on the territory of Ukraine continue. During the day, nine control points were hit, including the 59th Marine Brigade in Nikolaev, where foreign mercenaries were stationed, as well as the 14th mechanized brigade in the Artemovsk area and the SBU headquarters in the city of Kramatorsk. Six warehouses with rocket and artillery weapons and ammunition were destroyed in the areas of the settlements of Konstantinovka, Fedorovka of the Donetsk People's Republic, Maliyevka of the Dnipropetrovsk region and the city of Nikolaev.

As part of the counter-battery fight, the following were hit: a battery of multiple launch rocket systems "Hurricane" and a battery of self-propelled artillery howitzers "Acacia" with a counter-battery radar station near the village of Zarozhnoye, Kharkiv region; eight Ukrainian platoons of multiple launch rocket systems "Grad" in the districts of Zvanovka, Kirovo, Soledar, Krasnoe, Platonovka of the Donetsk People's Republic, Dobropolye of the Zaporozhye region and Shirokoe of the Mykolaiv region; nine artillery platoons of D-20 howitzers and seven artillery platoons of D-30 guns in the areas of the settlements of Seversk, Kirovo, Novomikhailovka, Konstantinovka, Kleshcheyevka, Georgievka of the Donetsk People's Republic, Novopavlovka, Veseloye of the Zaporozhye region, as well as Dobroye of the Mykolaiv region.

1 Su-25 aircraft of the Ukrainian Air Force was shot down by the fighter aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces in the Kramatorsk area of the Donetsk People's Republic.

In addition, Russian air defense means shot down a Mi-8 helicopter of the Ukrainian Air Forces in the Pervomaiske area of the Mykolaiv region, as well as five Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles in the areas of the settlements of Topolskoye, Dementievka, Peschanoye of the Kharkiv region, Yenakiyevo and Makeyevka of the Donetsk People's Republic. Eight shells of the Hurricane multiple launch rocket system were intercepted in the areas of Chernobayevka, Cossack Camps of the Kherson region and Kamenka of the Kharkiv region.

-ASPEN, Colorado, July 21 (Aspen Security Forum)

Russia’s military is likely to start an operational pause of some kind in Ukraine in the coming weeks, giving Kyiv a key opportunity to strike back, Britain’s spy chief said on Thursday. Richard Moore, chief of the Secret Intelligence Service (SIS) known as MI6, also estimated that about 15,000 Russian troops had been killed so far in its war in Ukraine, adding that was “probably a conservative estimate.“I think they’re about to run out of steam,” Moore said, addressing the Aspen Security Forum in Colorado, adding that the Russian military would increasingly find it difficult to supply manpower and materiel over the next few weeks. “They will have to pause in some way, and that will give the Ukrainians opportunities to strike back.”

The United States estimates that Russian casualties in Ukraine so far have reached around 15,000 killed and perhaps 45,000 wounded, CIA Director William Burns said on Wednesday, adding that Ukraine has also endured significant casualties. Nearly five months since President Vladimir Putin ordered an invasion of Russia's neighbor, its forces are grinding through the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine and occupy around a fifth of the country. Burns, speaking at the Aspen Security Forum in Colorado, said those gains have come at great cost. In short - it seems that MSM outlets agree that perhaps it's unwise to send unchecked billions in weapons and aid to a notoriously corrupt nation whose president, Volodomyr Zelensky, just fired their equivalent of their CIA director and Attorney General while accusing them of treason.

*** ECONOMIC & POLITICAL ***

-Liz Truss is coming. 60/40 she becomes the new UK PM. 

-Senior U.S. officials acknowledged Wednesday that the United States and its allies are considering whether to provide Ukraine with new fighter jets and the training needed to operate them, a move that would dramatically expand Western involvement in the war with Russia. Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr., chief of staff of the U.S. Air Force, said that although he would not speculate what type of aircraft might be transferred, discussions are ongoing about how to reinforce Ukraine’s fleet, including with new planes. The Ukrainian air force has been outgunned by Russia since the invasion began Feb. 24, sparingly flying an assortment of MiG jets and other Cold War-era planes. Brown said there are several possibilities, including American-made fighters or some made in Europe. Options include the Gripen fighter made in Sweden, the Rafale made in France, and the Eurofighter Typhoon, which is built by a consortium of companies in several countries.

-In China - CCP tanks on the street protecting Banks in Rizhao, Shandong Province. The Henan branch of the Bank of China declaring that people's savings in their branch are now 'investment products' and can't be withdrawn, sparking large anti-bank protests.

-A popular Russian media outlet 'Arguments of the Week' published this today:

Армия России регулярно наносит удары по целям на Украине квазибаллистическими, аэробаллистическими или крылатыми ракетами оперативно-тактической, средней и большой дальностей морского, наземного и воздушного базирования. Противник всё ждёт, когда они закончатся, но этого не произойдёт никогда – промышленность уже вышла на такие обороты, что покрыла массовый расход ракет и различных корректируемых боеприпасов первых дней СВО. Сейчас их производство превышает ежесуточное расходование. То есть арсеналы этого оружия, наоборот, растут.

Translation: The Russian army regularly strikes targets in Ukraine with quasi-ballistic, aeroballistic or cruise missiles of operational-tactical, medium and long range, sea, land and air based. The enemy is still waiting for them to run out, but this will never happen - the industry has already reached such a rate of production that it covered the mass consumption of missiles and various guided munitions since the first days of the SMO. Now their production exceeds the daily consumption. That is, the stocks of these weapons, on the contrary, are growing.

-The UK will send Ukraine anti-tank weapons, drones, artillery guns and tens of thousands of rounds of ammunition, Defense Secretary Ben Wallace told Parliament on Thursday. Ukraine will receive more than 20 M109 and 26 L119 artillery guns, as well as counter-battery radar systems and more than 50,000 rounds of ammunition for its existing Soviet-era artillery systems. The UK will also send 1,600 anti-tank weapons as well as drones, including hundreds of “loitering aerial munitions,” more commonly known as “suicide drones.” The arms will be sent to Ukraine in the coming weeks, and Wallace’s announcement comes several weeks after outgoing Prime Minister Boris Johnson pledged an additional £1 billion ($1.2bn) in military support to Vladimir Zelensky’s government. In total, the UK has spent £2.3 billion on weapons and training for Kiev’s military since Russia’s military operation in Ukraine began in February. This money has already paid for nearly 7,000 NLAW, Javelin and other anti-tank missiles, 16,000 artillery rounds, six mobile anti-air missile launchers, as well as a number of M270 rocket artillery systems and 120 armored vehicles.

-In a call earlier this week, Speaker of the US House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi asked US Secretary of State Antony Blinken to designate Russia as “a state sponsor of terrorism,” Politico wrote on Wednesday, citing two sources familiar with the conversation. Pelosi reportedly warned America’s top diplomat that if he did not go through with the designation, Congress would do it instead. While Congress has given the State Department the exclusive authority to label other countries as state sponsors of terrorism, some lawmakers argue that a bill could be passed to get around this restriction, the paper noted.  

-Italy is facing a general election after President Sergio Mattarella dissolved parliament on Thursday. Prime Minister Mario Draghi resigned hours earlier, after three of his coalition partners boycotted a confidence vote. Mattarella did not set a date for elections, but said that a vote must take place within 70 days, as per Italy’s constitution. His decision to dissolve parliament came after an attempt last week to keep Draghi in power. Draghi, who formerly led the European Central Bank, announced his resignation last Thursday after his largest coalition partners in the populist Five Star Movement withdrew their support from him, but Mattarella rejected his bid to quit.

-Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-NY) was attacked by a man with a blade on Thursday evening during a campaign stop in Fairport, NY, near Rochester, WROC reports. Zeldin, the NY Republican gubernatorial candidate, was giving a speech about bail reform when a man walked on stage, began yelling, "wrestled with him a bit, and pulled a blade out," before AMVETS national Director Joe Chenelly stopped him. According to a statement from Zeldin's campaign, "a man climbed on stage and attempted to stab Congressman Lee Zeldin (R-NY) ... Congressman Zeldin grabbed the attacker's wrist to stop him until several others assisted in taking the attacker down to the ground."

-Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp. has likely advanced its production technology by two generations, defying US sanctions intended to halt the rise of China’s largest chipmaker. The Shanghai-based manufacturer is shipping Bitcoin-mining semiconductors built using 7-nanometer technology, industry watchers TechInsights wrote in a blog post on Tuesday. That’s well ahead of SMIC’s established 14nm technology, a measure of fabrication complexity in which narrower transistor widths help produce faster and more efficient chips. Since late 2020, the US has barred the unlicensed sale to the Chinese firm of equipment that can be used to fabricate semiconductors of 10nm and beyond, infuriating Beijing. SMIC’s surprising progress raises questions about how effective the export control mechanism has been and whether Washington can indeed thwart China’s ambition to foster a world-class chip industry at home and reduce reliance on foreign technologies.

-The governments of Spain, Greece and Portugal have all stated that they oppose an EU scheme that would see them slash their natural gas consumption by 15% over the winter. Announced by the European Commission on Wednesday, the ‘Save Gas for a Safe Winter’ proposal would entail EU member states reducing their gas use by switching to other power sources and ordering their citizens to ration their own usage. If the commission’s proposal is adopted, member states would be required to report on their progress toward the 15% target every two months, and EU authorities would have the power to declare a state of emergency and make the reduction mandatory.

-Russian President Vladimir Putin had a phone conversation with Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to discuss the oil market and OPEC+. The two parties also made a note of the importance of collaboration within OPEC+, adding that OPEC+ members have consistently fulfilled their obligations to maintain market balance and stability in the energy markets. OPEC+ has consistently failed to meet its production targets over the duration of the deal. In June, OPEC+--a group that includes both Russia and Saudi Arabia—increased its oil production by 390,000 bpd, but most members failed to meet their production targets. OPEC’s share of the increase for June was 210,000 bpd, while non-OPEC members part of the OPEC+ group increased production by 180,000 bpd, according to a recent Platts survey. Overall, this was still more than 2.5 million bpd under the quota for the full OPEC+ group. Russia and Saudi Arabia—the two largest producers within OPEC+--saw the biggest production gains in June. While the group has fallen short of production targets, OPEC continues to insist that the market is in balance. Saudi Arabia has long maintained that it can do nothing beyond what it is already doing to help the oil market, and that the market is far more complex than merely pumping additional barrels of oil.

-The term military mobilisation means many things to many people. To the average person, the average journalist, even the partisan buffoon military commentators on MSM nightly news all understand it differently, that is in a much more prosaic, everyday sense. Variously meaning: 

* Bringing more troops into the armed forces via immediate compulsory conscription; or

* Bringing more troops into the present battle from the inactive enlisted soldiers and reservists; or

* Bringing lots of troops from one frontline theatre to some other.

Military mobilisation can rightly mean all of these things. There is a reason why so many commentators fail to understand why Russia doesn't just throw it's (reputed) 900,000 soldiers at Ukraine to get the job done quicker. They think Shoigu can just pick up the phone and call "Give me another 200k guys for the Donbass". Can't happen. Unlike Zelensky who just tells his SBU "Grab every man with 2 legs and put him in camos and send him to where our numbers are low". That is Kiev's version of mobilisation!

But the fact is that the RF Duma has only legally approved a certain ceiling on active troop numbers to realistically achieve the voted, stated goals for the present SMO. That's why Russia is not calling it a war. It is only partial mobilisation of their armed forces. To send more troops to Ukraine (above the initial 150-200k first amased at its western borders in Dec 2021) would take much parliamentary debate. True, it may yet happen. But since Feb 24th, the General Staff have been happy to make do with what they got approved by the Duma. Ironically, that's more democratic than the way the west is currently working! The Russian MoD obviously does not feel overstretched. As VVP says, "all is going well according to our goals", which is to say that our "mobilisation plans" are all satisfactory ... unlike Ukraine's, which clearly show economic, weaponry, and manpower mobilisation to be a fiasco.

-The American MLRS HIMARS are controlled by the crews of NATO personnel, an unnamed representative of the Russian security forces said. “According to information received from sources in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, at least two HIMARS installations are operating in the southern direction, the remaining 10 are dispersed in an arc in the north, in the area of ​​active hostilities. The calculations of the installations are staffed from NATO military personnel who have been withdrawn from the state, ” RIA Novosti quotes the interlocutor. The complexes are guarded by employees of private military companies close to the Pentagon, those with whom the US military enters into contracts, he added.

Guidance is carried out with the help of American military satellites; after launches, the installation is quickly moved and does not return it to its previous positions. “Each volley is necessarily covered by several volleys of more primitive systems, such as Uragan or Smerch, whose task is to saturate Russian air defense with targets and deplete their ammunition by the time HIMARS is launched,” the source said. All movement and operation of installations is carried out at night, during the curfew. 

The NATO military does not trust Ukrainians, both military and civilian. The Ukrainian MLRS crews participating in the joint strike are not aware of the joint work with HIMARS, and are not aware that they are a cover for NATO crews. “They only have the launch time and target coordinates at their disposal,” he said.

Meanwhile, Vladimir Rogov, a member of the main council of the military-civilian administration (MAC) of the Zaporozhye region, said that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are shelling the liberated settlements from HIMARS when Russian air defenses are reloading after repelling attacks from older MLRS. He added that after the last strike of Ukrainian drones on the territory of the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant in Energodar, four victims remain in serious condition. Recall that on Wednesday, Ukrainian troops released 12 missiles from the HIMARS MLRS on the Antonovsky Bridge, some of them were intercepted by air defense. Earlier, Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin said that the United States does not yet intend to supply Ukraine with shells for HIMARS multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) with a range of over 80 km.

Recall that on June 1, the US authorities allocated a $700 million military assistance package to Ukraine, which includes four HIMARS (High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems) multiple launch rocket systems. More than 20 types of ammunition have been created for HIMARS, the firing range of which, depending on the type, can range from 30–80 km (in the MLRS mode) to 300 km or more (as an operational-tactical missile system). The Russian military has already destroyed HIMARS complexes in the area of ​​​​the settlement of Krasnoarmeysk in the DPR with high-precision ground-based weapons.

-A recent report from NBC news has generated a lot of discussion about the relationship between the military and American society. Especially from right-leaning commentators, much of the blame is placed on the current administration and the apparent increase of “woke” cultural initiatives and vaccine mandates. The 3 main reasons people aren’t joining the military:

1. People don’t want to die for the current regime’s neoliberal agenda

2. The military is woke now & no longer exemplifies peak masculine culture

3. Vax mandates exposed how little the regime actually cares about its servicemembers

-Shares of AT&T fell on Thursday after CEO John Stankey said that customers are starting to put off paying their phone bills - which resulted in the wireless carrier cutting this year's forecast for free cash flow by $2 billion, Bloomberg reports.

-As it presses ahead with providing tens of billions of dollars in military, economic and direct financial support aid to Ukraine and encourages its allies to do the same, the Biden administration is now once again grappling with longstanding worries about Ukraine's suitability as a recipient of massive infusions of American aid. Those issues, which date back decades and were not an insignificant part of former President Donald Trump's first impeachment, had been largely pushed to the back burner in the immediate run-up to Russia's invasion and during the first months of the conflict as the U.S. and its partners rallied to Ukraine's defense. But Zelenskyy's weekend firings of his top prosecutor, intelligence chief and other senior officials have resurfaced those concerns and may have inadvertently given fresh attention to allegations of high-level corruption in Kyiv made by one outspoken U.S. lawmaker.

-A number of known British pedophiles have been asked to leave Poland after British authorities discovered they traveled there to target Ukrainian children in refugee camps, the National Crime Agency said on Thursday. The ten men were interviewed by Polish immigration authorities before being sent home, the National Crime Agency (NCA) told The Independent. According to an NCA spokesperson, the men were required by law to declare their convictions upon arriving in Poland, but “we find inevitably they haven’t.” The convicted predators reportedly claimed they were offering “humanitarian assistance” to refugees fleeing the conflict in Ukraine, of which at least 5,000 in Poland are unaccompanied children, the spokesperson continued.

-A summer camp in Portland, Oregon, is offering children the opportunity to become budding social justice warriors (SJW) while “reflecting on white supremacy” and learning Black Lives Matter (BLM) chants about putting “killer cops in jail.” The Budding Roses camp in August for fourth through eighth graders is a project of the Black Rose Anarchist Federation, a political organization promoting the tenets of anarchy that some would argue led to the Portland riots of 2020. In June 2021, the Portland Police Association issued a press release announcing that the Portland Police Bureau Rapid Response Team resigned from their voluntary positions due to the “political venom” of local politicians who not only failed to support but demonized the team during the Portland riots that began in 2020 and continued through 2021. The resignation is a step toward what Budding Roses teaches children in the chant, “Cops and borders, We don’t need them.” As with many SJW goals, the camp’s curriculum appears to be inflicting children with race obsession and graphic sexual concepts, as can be seen in a BLM coloring book espousing transgender affirmation and in a chant that compares the government to a rapist. The camp also has a class on “Why Writing People in Prisons and Jails Matters” to instruct children on writing to incarcerated felons. “Letter writing with incarcerated people encompasses our commitment to change, and the intersection of our priorities,” it says. “In order to fight for prison abolition, we must connect with and advocate for those most impacted by the prison industrial complex.” In its “Tear Gas for Portlanders” class, a drawing of a person in Antifa garb who introduces himself as “your friendly neighborhood anti-fascist” gives a lecture on tear gas, how it’s made, where it has been used, how much the city of Portland has spent on it, and why it shouldn’t be used. According to the class, tear gas is another tool in the box of what it describes as a racist police force.

-Days after Politico reported that Republicans are freaking out because one of their own, Rep. Victoria Spartz, slammed the government of Ukraine and called for "proper oversight of critical infrastructure and delivery of weapons and aid," the Associated Press (aggregated by NPR, no less) has joined this very out-of-character departure from prevailing narratives peddled by mainstream outlets.

-Around 0700-0800 local time, Russian NatGas flowed through the biggest pipeline into Europe at roughly 40% capacity, the same level before flows were curtailed to zero for ten days of planned maintenance. "The resumption this morning of flows along Nord Stream is likely to lead to a collective sigh of relief from not just the European gas market, but from the wider economy," Tom Marzec-Manser, head of gas analytics at ICIS in London, told Bloomberg. The resumption of flows comes as Europe prepares for the worst energy crisis in decades. Budget Commissioner Johannes Hahn doesn't expect the pipeline to return to full capacity. Klaus Mueller, head of German regulator BNetzA, tweeted earlier and confirmed NatGas flows "can today reach the pre-maintenance level of approx. 40% utilization (approx. 700 GWh/d)," but he poured cold water on the belief that 60% utilization would return anytime soon.

-President Biden issued some surprise comments weighing in on House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's upcoming Taiwan trip, telling reporters Wednesday that the US military think's it's "not a good idea" for her to visit the island. When asked specifically about the potential trip which days ago began to widely be reported, earning condemnation and a warning of "forceful measures" from China, Biden said, "The military thinks it’s not a good idea right now, but I don’t know what the status of it is.

-Greece, Spain, and Portugal are already among what's looking to be an ever-growing list of EU member states who don't agree with the European Commission's proposed 15% cut in natural gas consumption across the bloc. Greek spokesman Ioannis Oikonomou told a press briefing in Athens on Thursday that the government "has submitted proposals and we continue to maintain that this direction can provide solutions.” Regardless of the Russian supply squeeze and EC President Ursula von der Leyen charging that Putin is "weaponizing" Russian energy in an attempt to blackmail Europe - and to punish the EU over anti-Russian sanctions - Greek Energy Minister Kostas Skrekas stressed that common households and businesses would be the first to suffer across the country. He said Athens would not conform to such a directive.

-New reporting in Bloomberg alleges that President Vladimir Putin's plan for captured territories in Ukraine is to absorb them into the Russian federation by staging referendums as early as September, citing "people familiar with the strategy". "Officials are preparing to organize votes in areas currently controlled by the Russian military and any others its troops are able to seize in coming weeks, three people said," the report indicates. "The goal is to conduct referendums on joining Russia by Sept. 15, two of the people said, asking not to be identified because the issue is sensitive."

-The UK Charity Commission has dropped an investigation into multi-million-pound donations made by the Qatari royal family to the Prince of Wales’s Charitable Fund (PWCF), triggered by a series of UK press revelations last month. “We have assessed the information provided by the charity and have determined there is no further regulatory role for the Commission,” the watchdog’s spokesperson confirmed on Wednesday. British media reported in June that Prince Charles had received three separate cash payments totaling over £2.5 million ($3 million) between the years 2011 and 2015, personally accepting the donations from Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim bin Jaber al Thani, who served as PM of Qatar from 2007 to 2013.

COVID CASES USA 7-DAY AVG

124,539 JUL 19 2022

35,705 JUL 19 2021

DEATHS 7-DAY AVG

425 JUL 19 2022

273 JUL 19 2021

Ukrainian 54th Motorized Brigade Under Russian Artillery Fire

Russia/Ukraine War Update - July 21st, 2022

*** MILITARY SITUATION ***

Calls among Russian nationalist and pro-war voices for Russian President Vladimir Putin to expand Russia’s war aims, mobilize the state fully for war, and drop the pretext that Russia is not engaged in a war reached a crescendo on July 19. Former Russian militant commander and nationalist milblogger Igor Girkin presented an extensive list of military, economic, and political actions that he argues the Kremlin must take to win the war in Ukraine; first among this list is abandoning the rhetoric of the “special military operation” and defining the official goals of the war in Ukraine. Girkin advocated for expansive territorial aims beyond the Kremlin’s stated ambitions in Donbas, including the reunification of the entire territory of “Novorossiya” (which Girkin maintains includes Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, Odesa, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Donetsk, and Luhansk oblasts as well as Kryvyi Rih) with the Russian Federation and the creation of a Malorossiya state (all of Ukraine up to the Polish border), which Girkin claims should be reunified with Russia through the Russia-Belarus Union State. Girkin also called for the Kremlin to shift the Russian economy fully to a war footing and to carry out extensive mobilization measures including forced conscription and the (further) suspension of Russians’ rights. Girkin has often criticized what he views as a lack of ambition and decisive action in the Kremlin’s handling of the war in Ukraine through his calls for maximalist objectives and measures to support territorial gains. His newest list of demands adds to the growing discontent within the Russian pro-war nationalist zeitgeist.

While Girkin’s July 19 post is an acerbic critique of the Kremlin’s intentions in Ukraine, other Russian milbloggers sought to shape a narrative favoring Putin while advancing the same maximalist aims by suggesting that the Kremlin has been purposefully setting conditions for a protracted war in Ukraine since the war began. Russian milblogger Yuri Kotyenok claimed that Russia has been pursuing the “Syrianization” of the war in Ukraine by never articulating specific deadlines or goals for operations in Ukraine.

US officials reported that Russia plans to annex occupied Ukrainian territory as soon as autumn 2022, confirming ISW’s May 2022 assessment. US National Security Council Spokesperson John Kirby announced that the Kremlin is beginning to roll out a version of its 2014 “annexation playbook” in Ukraine and is “examining detailed plans” to annex Kherson, Zaporizhia, and all of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, citing newly declassified intelligence.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov articulated expanded geographical aims for Russian operations in Ukraine on July 20, confirming ISW’s long-held assessment that Russia has territorial goals beyond Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts. Lavrov held an interview with state-owned media outlet RT’s editor-in-chief Margarita Simonyan wherein he stated that the geography of the “special operation” has changed since March and now includes not just the Luhansk and Donetsk People’s Republics, but also Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts and a number of other unspecified territories. Lavrov also warned that these goals will expand if the West continues to provide Ukraine with long-range weapons. Lavrov’s calls for maximalist territorial objectives are notably divorced from the slow and grinding reality of recent Russian operations in Ukraine as discussed above. Ukrainian counteroffensive pressure is complicating Russian efforts to consolidate military control of occupied Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, and it is unclear how the Kremlin will generate the offensive combat power needed to take significant new amounts of Ukrainian territory.

The Russian Defense Ministry publicly identified Lieutenant General Andrey Sychevoy as the commander of the Western force grouping in Ukraine on July 20. The Russian force groupings in Ukraine appear to follow the structure of established Russian military districts. Ukraine’s Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT) had previously reported that Sychevoy replaced Commander Alexander Zhuravlev as the Western Military District Commander. Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu instructed Sychevoy to focus on destroying Ukrainian UAVs operating near the Ukraine-Russia border, indicating that the Western force grouping is likely operating on the Kharkiv City Axis. Russian forces have thus apparently split Kharkiv Oblast into two axes: the Western force grouping operating towards Kharkiv City and the Eastern force grouping operating in the Izyum-Slovyansk direction.

Ukrainian forces struck the Antonivskyi Bridge over the Dnipro River east of Kherson City for the second day in a row on July 20. Head of the Russian-backed Kherson Occupation Administration Vladimir Saldo announced that the bridge is closed to freight traffic for repairs but that it remains open to passenger vehicles. Ukrainian Kherson Oblast Military Administration Adviser Serhiy Khlan stated that the Ukrainian strikes on the Antonivskyi Bridge have made it impossible for Russian forces to transport heavy equipment across the bridge.

Russian forces continued strikes along the line of contact but made no confirmed ground assaults on the Southern Axis on July 20. Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported that Russian forces fired 20 missiles from S-300 anti-air systems in Kherson Oblast at unspecified ground targets overnight on July 19-20. Russian forces conducted air and missile strikes on Murakhivka and Novohryhorivka, Mykolaiv Oblast, and on the Pidyommyy Bridge in Zatoka, Odesa Oblast.

Ukrainian partisans attacked Russian occupation personnel at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) in occupied Enerhodar, Zaporizhia Oblast on July 19. The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported that the partisan attack injured nine Russian occupation personnel and killed an unspecified number

-Ukrainian troops rescued a cat during clearing operations on Snake Island and evacuated it back to the Ukrainian mainland on July 20. The cat reportedly survived the duration of the Russian occupation of the island.

-Here are the highlights from General Konashenkov’s (Russian) latest briefing:

High-precision weapons of the Russian Aerospace Forces have neutralized temporary deployement point of the Right Sector Nazi militia in Kamyshevakha, Zaporozhye Region. Up to 200 militants have been killed.

High-precision weapons have hit positions of battalion of 81st Airmobile Brigade of AFU near Dolina, Donetsk People’s Republic. More than 60 personnel have been destroyed, as well as 7 armoured vehicles and 1 ammunition depot.

In addition, high-precision weapons strike have destroyed ammunition depots for weapons supplied by the US and European countries near Belen’koye, Odessa Region.

To replenish the significant losses in personnel and equipment incurred by 66th and 72nd mechanized, 58th motorized infantry and 10th Mountain Assault Brigades of AFU operating in the Soledar direction, the forced mobilization of residents of Artemovsk, Chasov Yar, Soledar, Dzerzhinsk and other nearby settlements is under way. Vehicles are seized from local residents to equip the formations.

4 platoons of Grad multiple-launch rocket systems, 13 artillery platoons of D-20 howitzers and 10 artillery platoons of D-30 guns have been neutralized in Seversk, Serebryanka, Dronovka, Opytnoye, Krasnoye, Zvanovka, Ivano-Dar’evka, Paraskovievka and Ivangrad, Donetsk People’s Republic.

Operational-tactical and army aviation, missile troops and artillery have neutralized 7 command posts, including 81st Aero-mobile Brigade near Kramatorsk, Donetsk People’s Republic, 60th Infantry Brigade near Kirovo, 128th Mountain Assault Brigade near Vozdvizhevka, Zaporozhye Region, 5 ammunition depots in Vasyukovka, Velyka Novoselka, Donetsk People’s Republic, Novoaleksandrovka, Zaporozhye region, Pokrovskoye, Dnepropetrovsk Region, 2 fuel depots near Soledar and Novgorodskoye, Donetsk People’s Republic, as well as 197 areas of AFU manpower and military equipment concentration.

-A report from Polish intelligence on the situation in Ukraine has purportedly been leaked. According to the document, a catastrophic situation has developed in the formations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The number of irretrievable losses is more than 300 people per day, and this figure is underestimated by the president’s office to reduce the likelihood of a public explosion and create panic among civilians and the military. The Poles emphasize that the systematic strikes of the Russia Armed Forces on command posts and training centers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have led to the death of about 4,600 of the most trained military personnel, including senior officers, instructors and mercenaries over the past three months.

The report noted that untrained formations are sent to Donbass, the professional level of officers from the battalion commander and below is weak, the functions of commanders in the troops are often performed by national Battalion fighters. Since May of this year, almost all management functions in the planning and conduct of hostilities have been assumed by foreign advisers from the United States, Great Britain and Canada. At the same time, the fact of their presence at command posts is kept secret in order to prevent the personnel of NATO military countries from being captured by the Russian Armed Forces.

At the same time, the report notes that the American 155-mm M-777 howitzers delivered to Kiev are not always used for their intended purpose. Instead of conducting counter-battery warfare, guns are often used to bombard cities. The personel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine after accelerated training are unable to independently maintain complex air defense systems, therefore, foreign instructors from among mercenaries are often in artillery positions.

-A Reuters snap suggests that a US-made harpoon missile launcher was destroyed in Ukraine’s southern Odesa region. The snap quotes an Interfax report citing the Russian defence ministry. Ukraine began receiving the Harpoon missiles from Denmark in May as part of wider western arms shipments to Kyiv.

-Russia’s offensive in Ukraine’s Donbas region continues to make minimal gains as Ukrainian forces hold the line. The Antonovskiy bridge over the Dnieper River that was struck by Ukrainian forces is probably still usable, Britain’s defence ministry said, but is a key vulnerability for Russian forces.

** ECONOMIC & POLITICAL ***

-ECB policy announcement due Thursday 21st July; rate decision at 13:15BST/08:15EDT, press conference from 13:45BST/08:45EDT. The ECB is set to finally pull the trigger on rates; discussion will be over 25bps or 50bps. Policymakers are expected to unveil details of the anti-fragmentation tool

-The USS Benfold has traversed China-claimed waters for the third time in a week, passing through the Taiwan Strait on Tuesday after China complained about US Navy "illegal" maneuvers near islands under its control in the South China Sea. Beijing again blasted it as a serious "provocation" demonstrating that the US is a "destroyer of peace and stability" - in repetition of prior condemnations. It follows a more rare July 13 incident wherein the US destroyer entered waters off the Chinese military occupied Paracel Islands, and then last Saturday a sail-by of the Spratly Islands.

-The United States and its allies are constantly looking for ways to bolster the Ukrainian air force, including possible pilot training before potentially supplying Kiev with Western-made fighter jets, two top US military officials announced at the annual Aspen Security Forum in Colorado on Wednesday. “You want to build a long-term plan on how do you build their air force and the air force that they're going to need for the future,” the US Air Force Chief of Staff General Charles Brown said. “There’s a number of different platforms that could go to Ukraine… It’ll be something non-Russian, I can probably tell you that,” Brown said. “But I can’t tell you exactly what it’s going to be.” The general did not reveal any concrete plans to send jets to Ukraine, only speculating that all options were on the table including US-made planes, as well as Swedish Gripens, Eurofighter Typhoons and French Rafales. Meanwhile, Secretary of the US Air Force Frank Kendall, who was speaking at the same security conference about the US military seeking to retire the iconic A-10 Warthog ground attack jets, was asked point-blank – “Why don't we give those A-10s to Ukraine?”

-Russian President Vladimir Putin asserted earlier today that the “globalist” world order is “totalitarian” and is “holding back creative pursuit.” Putin made the comments during a forum in Moscow. The notorious leader claimed that the west had only achieved its global preeminence due to the historic plunder of other nations and had no moral right to enforce a unipolar model on the planet. “The model of the total dominance of the so-called ‘golden billion’ is unjust. Why should this ‘golden billion’ among the planet’s population dominate others, impose its own rules of conduct?” Putin asked. “Based on the illusion of ‘exclusivity,’ this model divides people into first and second class status, and is therefore racist and neo-colonial in its essence,” he added. “And the globalist, supposedly liberal ideology which underlies it is increasingly acquiring the features of totalitarianism, holding back creative pursuit, free historical creation,” Putin claimed.

-The US will provide four more precision rocket systems to Ukraine to assist it in its fight against Russian forces, US defense secretary Lloyd Austin said Wednesday. On Tuesday, his Ukrainian counterpart requested Washington to send more M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS), saying Kyiv’s forces have used them to destroy some 30 Russian command stations and ammunition depots so far. The US will send “four more Himars advanced rocket systems for a total of 16. The Ukrainians have made excellent use of Himars, and you can see the impact on the battlefield,” Austin said. In addition, the US will provide additional Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System (GMLRS) ammunition, which can precisely strike targets up to 80 kilometers (50 miles) away. Ukrainian defense minister Oleksiy Reznikov on Tuesday requested a major increase in the number of HIMARS, saying at least 100 were needed for an effective counter-offensive against Moscow’s troops. He also renewed a call for longer-range ammunition - 100 to 150 kilometers - to cut off Russian units from their support. President Joe Biden’s administration has so far refused to send longer-range ammunition out of worry that Ukraine would strike targets within Russian territory and potentially expand the war into a direct clash with the West.

-The European Union will mobilise a fifth tranche of military assistance of €500m to further support Ukraine. EU foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell said the region “remains focused and steadfast in its support for Ukraine, together with partners”.

-Lithuania will offer Ukraine additional military support, the Lithuanian ministry of defence announced on Wednesday. Included in the package will be M13 and M577 armoured personnel carriers, as well as ammunition for reserve training.

-South America’s Mercosur trade bloc has declined Zelenskiy’s request to address its upcoming summit. Bloc members Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay and Paraguay failed to reach an agreement on the request which he made to Paraguay last week, according to deputy foreign relations minister Raul Cano, who declined to say which states were against it.

-Russia will not supply oil to the world market if a price cap is imposed, Interfax news agency quoted deputy prime minister Alexander Novak as telling Russian television on Wednesday. US treasury secretary Janet Yellen is pushing for the cap to drive down oil prices and make it harder for Moscow to fund its war in Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin told reporters earlier in the day that oil prices would skyrocket if a cap were imposed.

This is the scenerio where JP Morgan predicted oil could go as high as $380 / Barrel.

-Mortgage demand fell more than 6% last week compared with the previous week, hitting the lowest level since 2000, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index. Applications for a mortgage to purchase a home dropped 7% for the week and were 19% lower than the same week in 2021. Buyers have been contending with high prices all year, but with rates almost double what they were in January, they’ve lost considerable purchasing power. While buyers are less affected by weekly moves in interest rates, the broader picture of rising rates has already taken its toll. Mortgage rates moved higher again last week after falling slightly over the past three weeks. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($647,200 or less) increased to 5.82% from 5.74%, with points increasing to 0.65 from 0.59 (including the origination fee) for loans with a 20% down payment. That rate was 3.11% the same week one year ago.

-Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov on Tuesday openly offered Ukraine as a venue to test NATO weapons against Russia in an online conversation with the director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center. Reznikov said that Ukraine "is essentially a testing ground" for the advanced weaponry the US and its allies are pouring into the country. "Many weapons are now getting tested in the field in the real conditions of the battle against the Russian Army, which has plenty of modern systems of its own," he said. The Ukrainian military chief made the offer in a fresh pitch for more Western arms. "We are interested in testing modern systems in the fight against the enemy and we are inviting arms manufacturers to test the new products here," he said. One weapons system that is getting its first use on the battlefield in Ukraine is the Polish Krab artillery system that was provided by Warsaw. "So, I think for our partners in Poland, in the United States, France, or Germany, it’s a good chance to test the equipment. So, give us the tools. We will finish the job and you will have all the new information," Reznikov said.

-The US Army has so far recruited just around half of the 60,000 new soldiers it hoped to enlist by October 1, officials said on Tuesday, saying that if the downward trend is not reversed, it could have a significant impact on combat readiness in the coming years. “We’ve got unprecedented challenges with both a post-Covid-19 environment and labor market, but also competition with private companies that have changed their incentives over time,” the vice chief of staff for the Army, General Joseph Martin, told a House Armed Services subcommittee, according to AP. The US military has had a difficult time attracting new soldiers, posting its lowest recruitment numbers in decades this year. Last month, the Pentagon admitted it was 23% behind recruiting goals. The problem has been widely blamed on bad advertising – specifically the recent trend toward ‘woke’ advertising, which has been widely mocked on social media – and a sloppy, antiquated recruitment system that places too much responsibility in the hands of outside contractors.

-Bloomberg's energy reporter Javier Blas opined this in a Bloomberg Opinion piece: Saudi Arabia, the holder of the world's largest oil reserves, is telling the world that in the not-so-distant future it "will not have any additional capacity to increase production."Let that sink in.  

-With Europe still on edge over the risk of an extended Nord Stream shutdown in 24 hours, moments ago Russian President Vladimir Putin eased tensions when he said that Russia would fulfill its commitments to supply natural gas to Europe, but he warned that flows via the Nord Stream pipeline could be curbed soon if sanctions prevent additional maintenance on its components. Translation: as we predicted, Putin will resume NS1 flows, but at levels at or below the pre-repair "new normal" of 40%. As we reported previously, Nord Stream 1, the main artery for Russian gas to Europe, is currently down due to regular maintenance and European governments are worried the Kremlin won’t restore its flow when the work ends Thursday, roughly around the time the ECB announces a historic rate hike (as much as 50bps according to the latest press reports). A prolonged outage could lead to an even greater energy crisis, prompting governments to ration energy, hurting industry and sending the country into recession even faster.

-The European Commission on Wednesday asserted "there is no reason to believe this pattern will change" regarding diminishing Russian natural gas flows ahead of winter, issuing a new sweeping plan in a press communique that calls on member states to immediately and 'voluntarily' slash gas consumption. It proposes a significant cut in gas consumption by 15% over the next eight months, and will require drastic action across industries, power producers and even citizens in their households, according to Bloomberg.

-Biden Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg has again suggested that high gas prices are a good thing because it forces people to accept a transition to the green energy agenda. During a congressional hearing, Buttigieg said that “the more pain” Americans experience from high gas prices, the more “benefit” there is “for those who can access electric vehicles.”

-Russia has widened its military aims beyond the east of Ukraine, setting its sights on other regions, according to Reuters. The delivery of weapons from the west to Ukraine prompted the shift in focus from Donetsk and Luhansk to southern regions, some of which are already under the control of Russian forces. “The geography is different now. It is not only about the DNR and LNR, but also the Kherson region, the Zaporizhzhia region, and a number of other territories,” the foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, said. “The process is continuing, consistently and persistently.”

Lavrov warned the Kremlin’s objectives could expand further still if the west continued to supply Ukraine with weapons. “We cannot allow the part of Ukraine that Zelenskiy will control, or whoever replaces him, to have weapons that will pose a direct threat to our territory and the territory of those republics that have declared their independence,” he said.

-Russia has shut down the idea of resuming peace talks with Ukraine accusing it of being undeserving of “serious attention from serious people”. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said the previous sit-down proved Ukraine had no “desire to discuss anything in earnest”, according to AFP. The countries attempted to hold talks some months ago but they ground to a halt in April, he added. Mr Lavrov continued: “They simply will never be able to articulate anything that would deserve the serious attention of serious people.”

-Reuters reported that, on Sunday, Ukraine National Bank (UNB) Deputy Governor Kateryna Rozhkova said on national television that the UNB had sold $12.4 billion of gold reserves since the beginning of Russia's invasion on Feb. 24. "We are selling (this gold) so that our importers are able to buy necessary goods for the country," Rozhkova said. She said the gold was not being sold to shore up Ukraine's hryvnia currency. There's just one problem: Ukraine doesn't have $12 billion in gold reserves (according to official IMF data at the end of June). It remains unclear how Ukraine sold so much gold.

When the Russians invaded, UNB held about 27 tons of gold in its reserves valued at about $1.6 billion, according to the WGC. In other words, according to Rozhkova, the central bank has sold more than 7 times its total gold holdings. That’s not to say Rozhkova’s statement was misleading. The country could be tapping into domestic gold supplies held by commercial banks or other institutions. PrivatBank ranks as the largest commercial bank in Ukraine. It was nationalized in 2016. It’s also possible that other countries or private entities gave Ukraine gold to sell. Countries around the world have sent billions in aid to the Ukrainian government. For example. earlier this month, Sweeden sent 577.7 million SEK to Ukraine. That’s over $55.5 million USD and 1.5 billion UAH.

Finally, some reports suggested that Ukraine's gold has been 'relocated' to Poland. Deputy Head of the National Bank of Ukraine Sergey Nikolaychuk said in an interview with Rabbit Hole magazine that Kyiv sends Ukraine’s gold and foreign exchange reserves to Poland, where they will be stored until the situation normalizes. At the same time, he did not disclose either the volumes of these same reserves, or what they are. Apparently, this is not about physical gold, but about security. This action suggests that the leadership of Ukraine is far less optimistic about its own and the country's prospects in the war with Russia than Zelensky proclaims to the world. So there we have it - UNB officials said they sold 7 times the amount of gold they have in reserves... then denied it.

-Russia is preparing to annex Ukrainian lands by arranging “sham” referendums on the territories it currently controls, like it did with Crimea eight years ago, the White House has said. “We have information today, including from downgraded intelligence that we’re able to share with you, about how Russia is laying the groundwork to annex Ukrainian territory that it controls in direct violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty,” John Kirby, US intelligence, National Security Council spokesman, told journalists on Tuesday. Russia launched a military campaign against Ukraine in late February. The US and their NATO bloc allies responded by imposing sweeping sanctions on Moscow and provided Kiev with heavy weapons.