Time running out for Lysychansk

Ukrainian Foreign Legionaires Discovering this War is Different

Russia/Ukraine War Update - June 30th, 2022

*** MILITARY SITUATION ***

Mid-June has seen the Russian Armed Forces maintain their operational momentum and make important gains in the Donbas while the Ukrainian Armed Forces continue to press their counteroffensive in the Kherson Oblast.

Kharkiv OD.
The situation here remains tenuous for both sides as heavy losses, coupled with priority of effort to the Izium-Lysychansk area have reduced the combat capacity & capability of units operating in Kharkiv. The RAF will continue attempts to advance closer to Kharkiv.

 

Ternova-Rubizhne AO.
This area is the most critical portion of the Kharkiv OD for Russian & Ukrainian forces. Opposing force ratios will likely remain at 1:1 for quite some time. The RAF will likely continue their effort to regain control of Staryi Saltiv & the T2104 Hwy.

Severodonetsk-Donetsk OD.
The tactical situation in the Popasna Salient & south of Lysychansk has deteriorated for the UAF. Russian forces have managed to advance north toward Lysychansk along the Siverskyi Donets. These successes have forced the UAF to abandon Severodoentsk.

The UAF is in the process of consolidating and establishing new defensive positions in Lysychansk, but Russian forces are attempting to press their advantage along the T1303 Hwy and seize the heights in southern Lysychansk before the UAF fortify them. If the RAF can keep the UAF units in Lysychansk off balance and threaten their encirclement it is likely the Ukrainian General Staff will opt to withdraw from Luhansk to establish a new defensive line on the heights running along the west side of the T0513 Hwy. NW of Slovyansk Russian forces have been making slow but steady advances on a broad front roughly from Sosnove to Kuruika. Although UAF defensive positions are holding against successive assaults, pressure from the east could weaken this line.

Zaporizhzhia OD.
Activity in the OD generally remains localized attacks to improve tactical positioning, however the UAF has conducted a sizeable counterattack south of Vuledar that has liberated several towns and shifted the line of contact at least 10km further south. / Partisan activity in this OD is steadily increasing with attacks common in Melitopol targeting Russian occupation administrators. Partisan activity is also targeting Russian supply convoys (rail & road) moving equipment through Melitopol to the Vasylivka & Polohy areas.

Odesa-Kherson OD.
The Ukrainian counteroffensive into northern Kherson has made gradual success over the last couple of weeks. Around Kherson City, the RAF has been pushed back from its first line of defenses, with the area between Blahodatne & Kyselivka heavily contested. The UAF retains a window of opportunity in Kherson to seize key points that will make the RAFs long term defense of Kherson problematic. These gains must be made before Russian EW, close air, & indirect fire support prevent a further penetration of secondary RAF defenses.

Black Sea OTMO.
The Russian blockade of Odesa continues but is coming under increased UAF air & UCAV pressure. Improved UAF strike capabilities threaten to degrade the Russian Black Seas Fleet ability to interdict shipping in and out of Odesa.

*** ECONOMIC & POLITICAL ***

-Alina Lipp, an independent German journalist and blogger is facing a criminal probe at home over her “endorsement” of Russia’s “illegal aggressive war” against Ukraine. Lipp has told Russian media she only does what any journalist would do – document what is happening around her. If found guilty, she could face a fine or up to three years behind bars. On Saturday, RT DE interviewed Lipp about her professional work and the ongoing investigation. The journalist contended that she is “doing interviews with people in Donetsk and merely translating them into German.” “I am simply filming everything I see around,” Lipp added. She inquired rhetorically “what is it that’s illegal in that, or dangerous?” The journalist insisted that none of her materials had been staged, and that there is no one telling her what to cover. The probe was originally launched by the German public prosecutor’s office in Luneburg following multiple complaints, which have been filed since February. However, the prosecutor’s office in Gottingen, which specializes in internet hate crimes, has reportedly since taken over Lipp’s case.  

-Trade through Lithuania to the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad could return to normal within days, two sources familiar with the matter said, as European officials edge towards a compromise deal with the Baltic state to defuse a row with Moscow. Kaliningrad, which is bordered by European Union states and relies on railways and roads through Lithuania for most goods, has been cut off from some freight transport from mainland Russia since June 17 under sanctions imposed by Brussels. European officials are in talks about exempting the territory from sanctions, which have hit industrial goods such as steel so far, paving the way for a deal in early July if EU member Lithuania drops its reservations, said the people, who declined to be named because the discussions are private.

-Russian president Vladimir Putin issued fresh warnings that Russia would respond in kind if Nato set up military infrastructure in Finland and Sweden after they joined the US-led alliance. If Sweden and Finland wanted to join Nato then they should “go ahead” Putin said. “But they must understand there was no threat before, while now, if military contingents and infrastructure are deployed there, we will have to respond in kind and create the same threats for the territories from which threats towards us are created.”

-Department of Energy estimate of Implied Crude Demand, there is just 27 days of supply left in the emergency oil reserve... a record low... "Congress has been irresponsibly selling the SPR down," said Bob McNally, who in the early 2000s oversaw the Energy Department's efforts to replenish the SPR under former President George W. Bush, adding that "draining the reserve leaves the country and the world more vulnerable to geopolitical shocks." This fall, it will launch a buyback process to repurchase 60 million barrels of oil, or one-third of the six-month 180-million-barrel emergency release.

-Britain will also commit an extra 1,000 troops and one of its two new aircraft carriers to the defence of Nato’s eastern flank. The forces will be earmarked for the defence of Estonia, where Britain already has about 1,700 personnel deployed, but they will be based in the UK, ready to fly out to defend the Baltic country if deemed necessary.

-Nato’s new strategic concept, Jens Stoltenberg has explained in Madrid, also looks at the environmental impact of the defence alliance. He said: “We cannot choose between having green militaries or strong militaries. They must be both. So we must maintain our operational effectiveness and readiness as we continue to adapt.”

-Speaking to journalists in Turkmenistan on Monday, Russian President Vladimir Putin responded to questions about several recent remarks from British Prime Minister Boris Johnson. During the latest G7 summit, the UK leader joked that his allies should take their clothes off for the photoshoot – to show that they are “tougher than Putin.” “I don't know how they wanted to undress, waist-high or not, but I think it would be a disgusting sight either way,” the Russian president quipped. “Everything should be harmoniously developed in a person, both the body and the soul. However, in order for everything to be harmonious, one has to abandon excessive drinking and break other bad habits, start exercising, take up a sport.”

-Fed Chair Powell said the job for policymakers is to find price stability even during the new forces of inflation and that a reversal of globalisation could mean lower growth in place, while he added the US economy is in strong shape and can withstand monetary policy moves. Powell added the aim is to have growth moderate and there is a risk that the Fed could go too far but it is not the largest risk as the biggest risk would be a failure to restore price stability.

-Switzerland is readying plans to address a possible shortage of natural gas this winter and said it could resort to rationing, according to Reuters.

-BoE incoming MPC member Dhingra said there is room for a very gradual approach and newer data suggests a slowdown may be much more imminent than previously thought.

-Japan’s government is to issue a power supply shortage warning for a fourth consecutive day on Thursday, according to a statement.

-Maersk (MAERSKB DC) said the situation in Shanghai is stabilising and in general, all ports in China are working well, while it sees demand from Asia to all major markets (incl. North America, Europe) remaining firm in the approaching peak season.

-Russia will reportedly look to export its gold supplies to other countries after a US ban, according to Tass citing sources. It was also reported that Russia’s Foreign Minister told the UN Secretary-General that Russia is committed to fulfilling its grain and fertiliser export obligations. Furthermore, the Russian Foreign Ministry said there are no contacts with Canada and Germany via diplomatic channels over Nord Stream 1 turbine issues, according to Reuters.

-Following agreements reached during the January official visit to Moscow by Seyyed Ebrahim Raisi, President of the Islamic Republic of Iran, to further develop and deepen bilateral relations between Iran and Russia, the countries have decided to jointly revive the North-South Transport Corridor. This decision has become particularly relevant against the background of the unlawful sanctions policy pursued by the United States and its Western allies against Russia and Iran, and Tehran’s and Moscow’s desire to establish trade routes that are not linked to the West. In order to implement this decision, Iranian authorities are seeking to revive the recently stalled International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) project, which traverses Russian and Iranian territory and the two countries’ waters to connect with Asian export markets. As the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) reported on June 11, in order to implement the International North-South Transport Corridor, the Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines (IRISL) has initiated the transit of cargo from Russia to India or to South Asia through the project, using just one consignment note for the entire transit route.

-Maria Zakharova, press secretary of Russia’s foreign ministry, has said that Russia does not rule out seizing western assets within its borders. Reuters quotes her saying Russia was prepared to “act accordingly” if the west decided to use Russia’s frozen state assets – chief among them being around $300bn of central bank foreign currency reserves. Zakharova, dismissed as a “comedy turn” by the UK defence secretary, Ben Wallace, earlier today, said the use of such funds “will be interpreted by us as an unlawful and defiantly unfriendly attack, giving us the right to take retaliatory actions to protect our interests”. “We should not forget about the foreign assets of western countries, businesses and citizens who are located on the territory of our country,” she said. If the west failed to adhere to the principles of democracy, an open economy, private property and judicial independence, then “we will recognise this and act accordingly”, Zakharova added.

-Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, has told Nato leaders in Madrid that it is “absolutely necessary” for countries to support Kyiv “with weapons, finances and political sanctions against Russia”

-Ukraine’s foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba praised Nato for its “clear-eyed stance” on Russia and for inviting Finland and Sweden to join the military alliance.

-Nato leaders have announced a new “strategic concept” in response to Russia’s war against Ukraine, describing Moscow as “the most significant and direct threat to allies’ security and stability”. Nato has invited Sweden and Finland to become members of the military alliance, according to a communique published by the Nato summit in Madrid. Leaders also pledged further help to Kyiv and agreed on a package of support aimed at modernising the country’s defence sector.

-The US will ramp up its forces and equipment across Europe in response to threats from Russia, including creating a new permanent army headquarters in Poland, President Joe Biden said. The US will increase the number of US destroyers based in Spain and send two additional F-35 squadrons to Britain while continuing to boost the number of US forces, air defences and other weapons in Poland, Romania, the Baltic states and other bases across Europe, he added.

-Syria has said it officially recognised the independence and sovereignty of the Russian-controlled territories of Luhansk and Donetsk in eastern Ukraine. The Syrian presidency affirmed its intention to build relations with the two self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic and Luhansk People’s Republic.

-Britain’s prime minister, Boris Johnson, said he would most likely attend this year’s G20 summit even if Vladimir Putin decides to go. Johnson said he would be “absolutely amazed” if the Russian leader attended the November event in Bali in person, but that to boycott the summit would simply “leave the whole argument” to Russia and its allies.

-High hopes had been placed on the indirect talks set to be held in Qatar starting Tuesday between Iran and the United States, which involved the European Union mediating between the two; however after the second day the Iranian side is reporting that talks have already ended without an agreement or any breakthrough. "Indirect talks between the United States and Iran to revive a 2015 nuclear agreement have ended in Qatar without a result, Iran's semi-official Tasnim news agency reported on Wednesday," Reuters reports. Underscoring the importance of the Qatar-hosted talks as a restored nuclear deal still hangs from a thread, and is looking more unlikely than ever at this point, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell traveled to Doha to help mediate, after days prior meeting with Iranian officials in Tehran. Most crucially from the viewpoint of the West, lack of progress in these last ditch efforts further means there's no full-scale return of Iranian oil to international markets on the horizon.

-According to a report from CNN, White House officials are "losing confidence" that Ukraine will be able to retake all the territory Russia has captured since it invaded on February 24 as Russian forces continue to make gains in the eastern Donbas region. Unnamed US officials told CNN that President Biden’s advisors have started debating if and how the US should start convincing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky should change his definition of what "victory" will look like. Zelensky aide Podolyak explains that Ukraine is losing in the war. To get to parity with Russia they need 1,000 howitzers, 300 multiple-launch rocket systems, 500 tanks, 2,000 armored vehicles and 1,000 drones. This gives Ukraine a (small) chance. Otherwise they lose. Zelensky has repeatedly stated that Ukraine’s goal is to drive Russia out of all territory it has captured since it invaded. He also has said he wants to expel Russian forces from Crimea, a territory Moscow has controlled since 2014. But even as the US and NATO are sending more and more heavy weapons to Kyiv, the prospect of Ukraine being able to launch a sufficient counter-offensive does not seem realistic. Ukraine is taking heavy casualties, with officials admitting they are losing between 100 and 200 troops each day. The fact that Russia would have the upper hand in the Donbas was obvious from the start of the war. But after Russian forces withdrew from areas in the north near Kyiv and Chernihiv in early April, Western officials began pushing the narrative that Ukraine can win. But over the past month, the narrative has collapsed as Ukraine is clearly outgunned.

-White House officials are losing confidence that Ukraine will be able to take back all of the land it has lost to Russia and go back to pre-Feb 24 territorial lines, even with the heavier and more sophisticated weaponry the US and its allies plan to send. Since Russia invaded, the Biden administration has shown no interest in diplomacy as a potential solution, and the US’s allies have actively discouraged Ukraine from negotiating.

Russia May Soon Run Out of Ukrainians in Front of Their Lines...

 

Russia/Ukraine War Update - June 29th, 2022

*** MILITARY SITUATION ***

Ukrainian forces are likely conducting a fighting withdrawal that may include pulling back from Lysychansk and Luhansk Oblast in the near future and which probably aims to force the Russian offensive to culminate prematurely. The Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) Ambassador to Russia Rodion Miroshnik and Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces began a large-scale withdrawal from Lysychansk towards Siversk, Kramatorsk, and Slovyansk on June 28. Ukrainian forces may continue the fighting withdrawal that began in Severodonetsk to Ukrainian strongholds around Siversk, Kramatorsk, and Slovyansk. The staunch but limited Ukrainian defense of Severodonetsk imposed high costs on the Russians despite new Russian tactics intended to limit Russian casualties. Kyiv could continue this approach until the Russian attack culminates or Ukrainian forces reach more defensible positions along a straighter line dotted with fortified cities and towns.

The remaining Russian forces in Severodonetsk will need to cross the Siverskyi Donets River into Lysychansk from Severodonetsk or its surrounding settlements to participate further in the Russian offensive. This movement could require some time since the Russians destroyed the three main bridges across the river near the city. Miroshnik claimed that Russian forces have already crossed the Siverskyi Donets River from Kreminna and are building bridgeheads for further attacks on Lysychansk from the north. If they are true, and Russian forces threaten to complete the cauldron by pushing from the north and southwest of Lysychansk, then Ukrainian forces will likely abandon Lysychansk as well and conduct a fighting withdrawal to more defensible positions. Russian forces that have engaged in continuous offensive operations in Severodonetsk will also require some time to restore combat capabilities before participating in an assault on northern or northeastern Lysychansk. An unnamed Pentagon official stated that Russian forces continue to endure significant losses in fights for small territorial gains, and Russian groups that fought in Severodonetsk likely lost personnel and equipment. The locations and strength of the Russian troops that seized Severodonetsk remain unclear at this time, however. A notable acceleration of Russian attacks from the south of Lysychansk or from across the Siverskyi Donetsk River would likely indicate that the Russians have completed a redeployment of forces from Severodonetsk.

-The Times spoke with an intelligence officer and two sergeants in the Ukrainian special forces elite Shaman battalion who claimed Kiev had conducted covert operations inside Russia. The officers said they successfully carried out raids involving explosions to sow confusion and dissent among Russians. One of the special operations officers explained the missions involved sabotage and explosives. "The most interesting missions are working behind enemy lines; planting explosives behind the front lines, beyond the border," he said. The second sergeant indicated the Shaman battalion’s raid behind enemy lines was successful. He claimed, "The Russians don’t know what happened, they often can’t believe we were there." The officers gave few details about their operations to The Times. There have been several explosions inside Russia since President Valdimir Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine on February 24. Kiev has not officially claimed responsibility for any attacks inside of Russia but has hinted it might be behind some of the explosions.

-Ukraine has tallied up the number of Russian missiles fired on Ukrainian cities since 24 February: 2,811.

-A naval mine was found near the second mooring area of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium's (CPC) Black Sea terminal, according to Bloomberg, citing the facility's press office and a statement from the port city of Novorossiysk, located on the Black Sea in southern Russia. The discovery of the sea mine near CPC's second mooring didn't shutter operations at the terminal. CPC's third mooring will continue to operate. Reuters said CPC accounts for "around 1% of global oil trade," and any disruption at the facility could impact crude oil prices.  Bloomberg vessel-tracking data shows crude oil tanker "Prometheus Energy" is moored at the terminal. Following the discovery of the mine, Novorossiysk has declared a state of emergency in some areas of the Black Sea. It's believed the mine is from World War II and is expected to be disposed of in the coming days. CPC said on June 15 that minesweeping operations at the terminal would begin -- there's no further information on the device's origins.

-Russia’s ministry of defence has claimed that the fire in the shopping mall in Kremenchuk was caused by “the detonation of stored ammunition for western weapons”.

-An intelligence official confirmed that Ukrainian soldier casualties are on the rise. "Ukraine’s casualty rate, far lower than Russia’s in the first weeks of the war, is now approaching parity with the invading force,” he said.

*** ECONOMIC & POLITICAL ***

-Some members of the US government are skeptical about Kiev’s ability to turn the tide of war against Russia and mount an effective counteroffensive to retake territories lost in the past four months, CNN reported on Tuesday. They believe Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky should moderate his expectations and redefine what he would consider victory against Russia, the news outlet said. Others remain hopeful that Kiev can defy the odds, if provided enough Western weapons.

-U.S. authorities have stopped an oil tanker traveling from Russia to New Orleans to check whether it is Russian in origin, a source confirmed to Reuters. The Vitol-chartered vessel was shipping intermediate oil products including vacuum gasoil and fuel oil from Russia's Taman port to New Orleans last week, according to a trading source and shipping data. The products were due to reach a Valero refinery in the New Orleans region, two sources said.

-The West must prepare to back Ukraine against Russia in the long run and not give in to conflict “fatigue,” British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss has stated. Speaking to European media on Tuesday, the foreign secretary stressed the importance of Western unity over military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine. “What I am urging is [that] we continue to stick to that and we absolutely don‘t show any signs of fatigue or tiredness or giving up,” Truss said.

-Turkey, Finland and Sweden signed a trilateral memorandum, paving the way forward for the two Nordic countries to join Nato.
The agreement involves Finland and Sweden lifting their arms embargo, amending their laws on terrorism, supporting Turkey in its conflict with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (YKK) and stop supporting the party’s Syrian affiliate People’s Protection Forces (YPG).

Erdogan got everything he wanted:
• Sweden/Finland will lift its arms embargo
• Both will support Turkey on PKK, stop support to YPG
• They will amend their laws on terrorism
• They will share Intel with each other
• They will extradite terror suspects

-Magdalena Andersson, prime minister of Sweden, told the Associated Press that the trilateral agreement that her country and Finland has signed with Turkey, allowing for Sweden and Finland’s Nato membership, will bring “more security” to the alliance. “It’s good for Finland and Sweden. And it’s good for Nato, because we would be security providers to Nato,” she said. Completing the process of membership should be done “the sooner the better, not only for Sweden and Finland but for other Nato countries”, Andersson said.

-Hungary does not want to be lectured on its relations with Moscow and does not plan to impose “radical sanctions” against Russia, the country’s ambassador to Germany Peter Gyorkos said in an interview with Die Welt on Monday. The diplomat was asked to explain Hungary’s position on the hostilities between Russia and Ukraine and why Budapest continued to go against the EU in many aspects relating to the conflict.

-NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg vowed on Tuesday to cut the military behemoth’s carbon emissions to zero by 2050 and send the soldiers of the future to battlefields in electric vehicles. Stoltenberg spoke as NATO leaders gathered in Madrid for the alliance’s annual three-day summit. This year, the bloc will release an updated Strategic Concept – a document that outlines its mission and stance toward non-members. It will address China as a “challenge” for the first time, and in the words of Stoltenberg on Monday, “will make clear that allies consider Russia as the most significant and direct threat to our security.”

-If Kiev orders its troops to lay down their arms and fulfills Moscow’s demands, the entire Russian-Ukrainian conflict could be over by the end of the day, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters during a conference call on Tuesday. “The Ukrainian side can stop everything before the end of today. There has to be an order for the nationalist battalions and Ukrainian soldiers to lay down their arms. Russia’s demands must also be met,” Peskov said, commenting on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s recent claim that the conflict must end before the winter. Peskov noted that “everything else is just Zelensky’s thoughts,” adding that Russia’s special operation in Ukraine was going as planned and achieving its goals.

-Believe it or not, with inflation nearing 9%, it turns out that one job simply isn't good enough to cut it anymore. At least that was the findings of a new study from Insuranks, that found that 93% of working Americans today have a side hustle. Popular side hustles include Uber, Etsy, DoorDash, and Depop, the report says. The study found that 50% of people who had a side hustle were women and 49% were men. It surveyed 1,006 full-time and part-time Americans workers about their side hustles and income, and respondents were 49% female, 49% male, and 2% transgender/non-binary. The age range was 18 to 84, with an average age of 37 years old, the report said. The study also found that just as many Americans are working two side hustles as they are one. More than 10% of people included in the study said that they had three side hustles, with some participants even disclosing 4 or 5 different side hustles. The study found that taking online surveys and selling items online were the two most popular side hustles. It also found that most Americans are working extra "for something to do and a bit of extra cash". 44% said they are doing it to make ends meet and cover bills. The study found that men make about $596/month on average from their side jobs, and women make about $378 on average. 90% of those responded say they enjoy it and 41% said they like it more than their full time job.

-A new COVID wave appears to be starting in New York City, fueled by the strongest subvariant of the omicron strain of coronavirus to date, one of the city's top epidemiologists said Tuesday. The BA.5 subvariant, first seen in South Africa and then Portugal, is considered by some experts to be the "worst version" of omicron seen yet, given its apparent capacity to escape prior immunity and transmit more readily. Dr. Jay Varma, a Weill Cornell epidemiologist and formerly then-mayor Bill de Blasio's top public health advisor during the pandemic, said infections appear to have stabilized at a high level in the city, rather than dropping.

G7 Leaders

Propoganda

Russian commander claims Ukrainian POW's report that the Uky troops are being told that the Ukrainian Army is winning so decisively that they have captured Rostov - in Russia.

 

Translation:

"So tell us is the Kiev propaganda helping the Uk soldiers or is it just for morale? Do the Jaegers [hunters] from Khortytsia [a Large island in the Dnieper River] fight harder for it?
-It doesn't help at all. It only helps morale. One POW told us they were told that Rostov was already captured
-So all the morale stands on propaganda?
-Yes, they are brainwashed
-But you must have already told him the truth?
-He didn't believe us, that's the extent of the brainwashing
-What's that in the background?
-Artillery fire
-Who's shooting?
-They're shooting at us and we are shooting at them
-But where are you going towards.
-Zolote.
-So you are continuing the advance?
-Of course, without stop. If we stop we give them the chance to entrench. We fight like our grandfathers fought. If you are crushing the enemy you should crush them to the end.
-Are there any forces left for that?
-There are always forces on standby. Victory will be ours."

Ukrainian 10th Mountain Brigade Leadership northwest of Lysychansk

Ukrainian 10th Mountain Brigade Leadership decided not the wait for the cavalry and attempted to pull out of the Lysychansk AO, but don't make it. 

There are only two roads out of Lysychansk to the West, both are under Russian fire control and both can now been seen from Russian positions North and South of the Valley. From the Grain Elevator west the main road is wide open. 

 As you can see from the video Russian artillery positions have the roads zero'd so well that they only need to expend a few rounds to stop this withdrawal.

 

Russia/Ukraine War Update - June 28th, 2022

*** MILITARY SITUATION ***

-Ukrainian troops on the move. They seem to be in quite a hurry to get away, but the locals appear reluctant to give them rides.

Battalion 26/34 of the 6th Cossack Regiment fighting in Kamyshevakha in the Popasnyansk district of the LNR

A cemetery in Dnipropetrovsk.

-Ukrainian forces will try to hold the line against Russian forces from the city of Lysychansk, buying time for the arrival of western weapons, said Luhansk’s governor. In an interview, governor Serhiy Haidai said Moscow’s forces are trying to surround the city, which is a vital stronghold for Kyiv, Reuters reports.

-Russian forces have eliminated a group of Georgian mercenaries, fighting on the Ukrainian side, who were allegedly involved in the abuse and murder of prisoners, the spokesman for the Defense Ministry in Moscow, Lieutenant General Igor Konashenkov, said on Monday. According to Konashenkov, on June 26, three kilometers from the Lisichansk oil refinery in the Lugansk People’s Republic, Russian units “destroyed two sabotage and reconnaissance groups of mercenaries with a total number of 14 militants.” The first group, according to the spokesman, “consisted of citizens of various European countries,” while the second listed only mercenaries from the so-called Georgian Legion. According to Konashenkov, “Georgian militants were involved in the brutal torture and murder of Russian servicemen near Kiev in March this year.”

-Russia’s Ministry of Defense reported on Monday that it successfully carried out a missile strike on a rocket manufacturing plant in Kiev, which was being used to produce ammunition for multiple launch rocket systems. The strike was carried out on Sunday with four high precision missiles, all of which reached the Artyom rocket-manufacturing plant, located in the Shevchenkovskiy district of Kiev.

*** ECONOMIC & POLITICAL ***

-Following the crash (to record lows) of UMich Sentiment, analysts expected The Conference Board's consumer confidence index to tumble in June. They were right but it was a considerably bigger miss with the headline falling to 98.7 from 103.2 (revised lower) and well below the 100.0 expected. This was largely driven by a collapse in 'expectations' from 73.7 to 66.4 (present situation confidence fell from 147.4 to 147.1). That is the weakest level for 'hope' in the future since 2013. Additionally, the actions of Americans - dumping their savings to afford soaring cost of living - suggest Conference Board expectations have further to fall. So that's your average joe' American, but your 'average joe' American business is also increasingly pessimistic as Richmond Fed's Manufacturing confirms with a crash to COVID lockdown lows (printing -19 in June from -9, dramatically missing expectations of a small rebound to -7). Under the hood, shipments and new orders collapsed and local business conditions were a bloodbath... with expectations for conditions in the future worsening notably.

-Boris Johnson said G7 leaders agreed to “give Ukrainians the strategic endurance they need to try and shift the dial”. Speaking with Sky News from Germany, as the G7 summit draws to a close, the UK prime minister said this is what the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, “wants us to do”. Earlier, the chief of general staff, Gen Sir Patrick Sanders, said Britain is facing its “1937 moment”.

-The recent BRICS summit managed to run its course this past week with very little fanfare, despite the fact that Russia is in the midst of a conflict with Ukraine that has led to a worldwide economic war. China is edging towards a potential invasion of Taiwan, and much of the planet is in the middle of a stagflationary crisis in the meantime. The one major takeaway from the summit was the reaffirmed stance of the BRICS that they would continue to work closely with Russia in economic terms.

 

Since the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine, there has been a running narrative in the western media that sanctions and the removal of Russian access to the SWIFT network would crush the country within a few months, leaving them penniless and unable to project military power.  This has not happened.

-Speaking on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Madrid, NATO secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg said does not see China as an adversary but it is concerned about Beijing’s ever closer ties with Moscow, Reuters reports.

-Russia’s foreign minister has said the more western countries send weapons to Ukraine, the longer the conflict will last, Reuters reports. Speaking from a news conference during a visit to Turkmenistan, Sergei Lavrov also said Russia did not target the shopping centre in the Ukrainian city of Kremenchuk on Monday.

-Russian hacker group Killnet has told Reuters that it was continuing a major cyber-attack on Lithuania in retaliation for Vilnius’s decision to cease the transit of some goods under European Union sanctions to Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave.

-Kherson’s mayor, Ihor Kolykhaiev, was arrested by Russian forces on Tuesday, according to an adviser to the mayor, Galina Lyashevskaya. “They took Igor Kolykhaev” she wrote on Facebook on Tuesday afternoon. In another post, she wrote Kolykhaiev visited a utility facility when leaving a car, was immediately detained by armed national guards, “most likely the FSB”.

-Any encroachment on the Crimea peninsula by a Nato member-state could amount to a declaration of war on Russia which could lead to “World War Three,” Russia’s former president, Dmitry Medvedev, was quoted as saying on Monday. “For us, Crimea is a part of Russia. And that means forever. Any attempt to encroach on Crimea is a declaration of war against our country. And if this is done by a Nato member-state, this means conflict with the entire North Atlantic alliance; a World War Three. Medvedev, now deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, also said that if Finland and Sweden joined Nato, Russia would strengthen its borders and would be “ready for retaliatory steps,” and that could include the prospect of installing Iskander hypersonic missiles “on their threshold.”

-German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said there can be no return to pre-war ties with Russia. Scholz said that with its attack on Ukraine, Russia has broken “all the rules, all the agreements we have made with each other on countries’ cooperation” following the Group of Seven summit. He said G7 leaders agree that it has led to long-term changes “which will mark international relations for a very, very long time. So it is clear that, in relations with Russia, there can be no way back to the time before the Russian attack on Ukraine.”

-The upcoming NATO summit in Madrid might see the military bloc decide to send thousands of troops to Russia’s doorstep, the Spanish newspaper El Pais reported on Sunday, citing its sources. The bloc, which is set to “re-invent” itself next week, will also reportedly cut all ties with Moscow, the paper added. NATO member states are ready to turn Eastern Europe into a “fort” hosting thousands of soldiers and a large quantity of military equipment amid fear of a potential Russian assault, El Pais explained, citing sources familiar with negotiations, which are still taking place at the military bloc’s headquarters in Brussels ahead of the summit scheduled for June 28-30. The US-led organization “wants to send a message that it is on war footing” and ready “to respond to any aggression,” the paper said. NATO would also use the summit to boost national defense spending and joint financing of the bloc, it added.

-NATO will drastically boost the number of its rapid-response combat forces, Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said on Monday. “We will transform the NATO response force and increase the number of our high readiness forces to well over 300,000,” Stoltenberg told reporters ahead of the bloc’s summit in Madrid, Spain later this week. The NATO Response Force (NRF) currently has around 40,000 personnel. Stoltenberg said the allies will strengthen their air defenses and increase stockpiles of military supplies.

-UK defence secretary, Ben Wallace, has reportedly written to the prime minister to call for the defence budget to be lifted to 2.5% of GDP by 2028. The leaked request, first reported by Talk TV, emerged on the eve of the Nato summit in Madrid, which will discuss the renewed threat posed by Russia and the anticipated commitment of hundreds more British troops to the defence of Estonia.

-Washington reportedly plans to deliver Norwegian-developed NASAMS surface-to-air missile system to Kiev. The US plans to announce as soon as this week that it has purchased “an advanced medium-to-long range surface-to-air missile defense system” for Ukraine, a number of news agencies reported on Sunday and Monday, citing people familiar with the matter. The Associated Press quoted a source as saying that the weapon in question is the Norwegian-developed NASAMS anti-aircraft missile system. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky requested the NASAMS to be delivered to his country when he addressed the Norwegian parliament in late March. It was said that Washington would also supply Kiev with additional artillery ammunition and counter-battery radars.

-The Pentagon on Monday in a belated reaction to Russian President Putin's Saturday announcement that Russia will be transferring nuclear-capable long missiles to Lukashenko's Belarus slammed "cavalier" and "irresponsible" nuclear saber-rattling. The US is apparently taking issue with Putin leaving open a nuclear transfer option, seen in the Saturday announcement alongside President Lukashenko as the two met in St. Petersburg: "In the coming months, we will transfer to Belarus Iskander-M tactical missile systems, which can use ballistic or cruise missiles, in their conventional and nuclear versions," Putin had said.

In response, a senior defense official told reporters at a Monday briefing: "Certainly, any time anybody uses the word nuclear you have concerns. Quite honestly it seems pretty irresponsible of a national leader to talk about the employment of nuclear weapons and to do so in a generally cavalier fashion." Reuters wrote of the prior Russian announcement, "Russia will supply Belarus with Iskander-M missile systems, Russian President Vladimir Putin told a televised meeting with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko on Saturday. Delivery will take place within a few months, he added." Thus the Pentagon is taking the announced transfer of the Iskander missiles as another veiled nuclear threat

-Interruptions to Russian gas supplies and a mass switch to electricity would lead to “a general energy collapse” in Europe, the prime minister of Montenegro, Dritan Abazovic, claimed on Monday. Speaking to parliament, Abrazovic recalled recent remarks by German Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck who, amid looming energy difficulties over the winter period, advised his compatriots to spend less time in the shower and to prepare warm clothes. In Abrazovic’s opinion, if someone from his government came up with such advice, he would be ridiculed. Montenegrin ministers are now focused on preventing a crisis like this, he said, but not everything depends on them. “If it comes true that in the fall, or with the onset of cold days, gas is not delivered from Russia to Western Europe at a level that satisfies its economy, and if it switches to electricity, there will be a general energy collapse,” he warned.

-Ukraine will determine the terms of any peace deal with Russia, US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told the state-run Voice of America broadcaster on Friday. While others have suggested that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky should cede some territory for peace, Kirby said Washington is preparing for what could be “a prolonged conflict.”... Kirby insisted that Ukraine can fight on, and told Voice of America that “Mr. Zelensky is going to get to determine what victory looks like.” “Of course, we want Ukraine to succeed on the battlefield, and we want them to succeed at the negotiating table, if and when it comes to that,” Kirby continued. “We’re not at that stage right now. But we believe that President Zelensky is the one who gets to determine what victory looks like. “Our job is to make sure that he has the tools available to him to do that in the most efficient, effective way.”

-The idea of putting a price cap on Russian oil exports in order to keep the oil flowing but reduce the Kremlin's revenues from it might sound rather exotic at first glance—but the idea has been around for a few weeks now. It did just get a major push at the G7 meeting that began last weekend, but the challenges to its implementation are quite substantial. An oil price cap for Russian crude was first floated during talks between U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and EU officials on finding a solution for the inflation problem while limiting Russian oil revenues. It quickly became clear that limiting Russian oil exports was not the best idea. The United States, the UK, and, more recently, the EU, have all imposed bans on the imports of Russian oil and oil products, but China and India have stepped up their purchases as Russian crude trades at a sharp discount to the international benchmark. The EU, meanwhile, is buying up Russian fuels ahead of the embargo that will come into effect at the end of the year.

-The Islamic Republic of Iran has officially submitted its application to join the group of five emerging economies made up of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, the foreign ministry in Tehran announced on Monday. The move comes after the Iranian president addressed the BRICS summit last week. While BRICS is not a treaty bloc, it has a “very creative mechanism with broad aspects,” Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh said on Monday, according to the Tasnim news agency. He added that Tehran has already had “a series of consultations” with BRICS about the application. Iran’s membership would “add value” for everyone involved, said Khatibzadeh, noting that BRICS members account for up to 30% of the world’s GDP and 40% of the global population.

-Continuing to do the same action and expecting different results is the Einsteinian definition of insanity... but that hasn't stopped the Biden administration in the case of its attack of his oil/gas prices. This morning, despite DOE's servers being reportedly fried, they managed to report that the US released 6.9 million barrels of crude from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) last week (~985,000 b/d). As Bloomberg's Javier Blas notes, the latest weekly release has pushed the SPR below the 500 million barrels mark for the first time since 1986...

-The US Army has reportedly agreed to provide a robotic dog to help a charity clean up the battlefields in areas around Kiev. HALO Trust, a US-based demining organization which has received multiple government contracts to work in Ukraine, will reportedly use Spot – Boston Dynamics' robot dog – to remove mines, mortar shells and unexploded munitions in formerly Russian-controlled areas near the capital Kiev, according to the group’s executive director Chris Whatley, who spoke to Foreign Policy.

-Police in the Ukrainian capital of Kiev have raided hundreds of nightclubs, handing out fines for curfew violations and drug possession, and summoning 219 men for mandatory military service. Around 420 establishments were targeted in raids over the weekend, Kiev Police Chief Ivan Vihivsky announced on Monday. Two clubs were found to be operating at night, defying the city’s curfew, and 413 people were found as violators of the same regulation.

-Nato’s secretary general said this week’s Madrid summit would agree the alliance’s most significant transformation for a generation, putting 300,000 troops at high readiness in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Jens Stoltenberg added that the military alliance’s existing forces in the Baltic states and five other frontline countries would be increased “up to brigade levels” – doubled or trebled to between 3,000 and 5,000 troops. That would amount to “the biggest overhaul of our collective defence and deterrence since the cold war,” Stoltenberg said before the meeting of the 30-country alliance, which runs from Tuesday to Thursday this week.

-Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Brazilian counterpart Jair Bolsonaro discussed global food security and confirmed their intention to strengthen their strategic partnership, the Kremlin said on Monday. Putin assured Bolsonaro in a phone call that Russia would fulfil all its obligations to supply fertilisers to Brazil, the Kremlin said in a statement.

-"In the UK, the price level for goods other than energy and food has risen by 8 per cent over the past two years," FT writes of soaring prices at a moment of the West's no holds barred push to 'punish' Russia over the Ukraine invasion. Inflation in the county has hit a new 40-year high of 9.1% as of last week,. To nobody's shock or surprise, and in a message that echoes previous statements from Biden, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has said while attending the G7 summit in Germany it's a price "worth paying".

-A chlorine gas explosion killed at least ten people and injured 250 at the port of Aqaba, Jordan, on Monday. Video footage captured the moment a gas tank fell from a crane and exploded, releasing a dense cloud of toxic fumes. The chief of the city's health department, Jamal Obediat, announced the casualty figures on state television, cautioning that these numbers could rise. Describing the situation as “critical,” Obediat told residents of the port city to remain indoors and close their windows, The National reported.

-Russian President Vladimir Putin will visit Turkmenistan and Tajikistan next week in what will be his first foreign trip since the launch of the military operation in Ukraine on February 24. In Dushanbe, Putin will hold talks with Tajik President Emomali Rahmon. Negotiations and a working dinner have been planned for the two leaders, the Rossiya 1 channel reported on Sunday.

Kornet ATGM with a 9M133F-2 thermobaric warhead

Wagner PMC using a Kornet ATGM with a 9M133F-2 thermobaric warhead against Ukrainian troops in the Vershyna area near the Vuhlehirsʹka Tes power plant. The small thermobaric round equals 22lbs of TNT and has a kill radius of about 60 meters. A thermobaric weapon is a type of explosive that utilizes oxygen from the surrounding air to generate an intense, high-temperature explosion, and in practice the blast wave such a weapon produces is typically significantly longer in duration than a conventional condensed explosive.

I'm not sure why the Ukrainian troops were high-lining across the top of the ridge like that in broad daylight, but that's a no-no we learned in the early days of infantry school, so one would assume those troops were poorly trained or poorly led - or both, and they paid for it.

The Wagner team claimed 18 Ukrainian casualties from this strike.

Russia/Ukraine War Update - June 27th, 2022

 *** MILITARY SITUATION ***

Actions along the front lines mostly paused on Sunday as the Russian's consolidated their gains in Severodonetsk and moved additional forces in preparation for the reduction of the pocket in that area.

 -Ukrainian forces have attacked a drilling platform in the Black Sea owned by a Crimean oil and gas company, Russian Tass news agency cited local officials as saying on Sunday, the second strike in a week. The platform is operated by Chernomorneftegaz, which Russian-backed officials seized from Ukraine’s national gas operator Naftogaz as part of Moscow’s annexation of the peninsula in 2014.

-Russian news footage has shown the defence minister, Sergei Shoigu, visiting troops involved in the Ukraine war. It is unclear if he visited Ukrainian territory, but the footage appeared to confirm that the colonel general Gennady Zhidko is now commanding troops in Ukraine.

-The mayor of Severodonetsk on Saturday announced that Russian forces now occupy the entirety of the city, after on Friday the remaining Ukrainian troops attempting to mount a defense against the superior and better-armed Russians were ordered to withdraw by their own military command. "The city is now under the full occupation of Russia. They are trying to establish their own order, as far as I know they have appointed some kind of commandant," Mayor Oleksandr Stryuk said in a national television broadcast.

-Fighting has now intensified in Severodonetsk's nearby "twin city" of Lysychansk. "The people’s militia of the Lugansk People’s Republic and the Russian army have entered the city of Lysychansk,” a pro-separatist militia statement said, describing "street by street fighting" there.

-Russian forces are systematically destroyed key bridges in the area while issuing ultimatums to holdout Ukrainian fighters: "You have two options," a commander of the pro-Russian separatists battling to take the city warned Ukraine's defenders. "Surrender or die." Still, each major Ukrainian army exit is dubbed by its leadership a withdraw to more fortified positions, and not as defeat. Kiev, meanwhile, has continued to desperately urge NATO countries to send more weapons and ammunition, as they are facing vastly better supplied Russian artillery units.

-A missile strike has hit a shopping centre in Kremenchuk, a city in central Ukraine on the banks of the Dniprp river.

-There are reports by the RUssians that burnt bodies and documents of Ukrainian international brigade fighters were found in the industrial zone of the Azovstal plant. “Putin suddenly arrived at the Kremlin at night Russian media report that the presidential cortege arrived at the #Kremlin at 23:00. This is extraordinary, usually it is associated with some important decision,” NEXTA tweeted.

*** ECONOMIC & POLITICAL ***

-After an unexpected rise in US durable goods orders (in May) and pending home sales (in May), the Dallas Fed's Manufacturing Survey (in June) plunged to its lowest since May 2020.. The survey was expected to rise modestly from -7.3 to -6.5, but plunged to -17.7. New Orders crashed into negative territory and employment weakened significantly.

Comments from a  Dallas Fed's Manufacturing Survey (June) respondent:

"We’ll all be lucky to have a job with two more years of this disaster."

"You can’t ignore the economic fundamentals leading to a likely recession, and the administration [in Washington] is either stubborn or as paralyzed as a deer in headlights"

"Government overspending and transfer programs have inflated the money supply while resulting in unchecked corruption  and waste. We will be paying that bill for generations, and what a colossal  waste of resources and missed opportunity."

-While President Joe Biden is in attendance at the G7 summit in southern Germany at the start of his week, the administration is planning to soon announce the next major transfer of weapons to Ukraine, but this time an advanced, medium-to-long range surface-to-air missile defense system. The system being readied would put Ukraine's strike capability into deeper territory far behind Russian lines. According to CNN, "Ukrainian officials have asked for the missile defense system, known as a NASAMS system, given the weapons can hit targets more than 100 miles away, though the Ukrainian forces will likely need to be trained on the systems, a source said."

"The NASMAS system the same one that protects Washington, DC, and the area around the nation’s capital," the report adds. The surface-to-air system is produced by Raytheon in partnership with Norwegian defense company Kongsberg. Just last week, amid an additional $450 aid package which marked the latest security assistance, the Pentagon reportedly transferred four more HIMARS mobile rocket launchers and artillery ammunition for others. So far Washington has given Kiev missiles with a range of about max 50 miles.

Related to the newest system being readied for the Ukraine battlefield, AFP writes of the US administration: An announcement is "likely this week" on the purchase of NASAMS, an "advanced medium- to long-range surface-to-air missile defence system", as well as other weaponry to help Ukraine fight Russia's invasion. This will include "additional artillery ammunition and counter-battery radars", which are used to pinpoint the source of enemy artillery firing. During the second day of the G7 meeting at Schloss Elmau, Volodomyr Zelensky gave a virtual address urging the West to supply more arms, particularly heavier weapons and munitions.

-Lithuanian state and private institutions have been hit by a denial-of-service cyber attack, the Baltic country’s National Cyber Security Centre said in a statement released by the defence ministry.

-Nato diplomats are wrestling over how to tackle China’s deepening ties with Russia following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, Reuters reports. Both a summit of the G7 rich industrial democracies now underway in Germany and a Nato summit to follow will examine what is seen as the growing inclination of China to flex its geopolitical muscle and coercive economic might abroad. The new strategic concept to be endorsed at the Nato summit in Madrid on Wednesday and Thursday is the bloc’s first in the decade and will address increasing threats posed by Russia and, for the first time, China, the world’s second largest economy, US officials said last week.

-Russia has declared eight Greek diplomats “personae non gratae” and given them eight days to leave the country, the Russian foreign ministry said on Monday.

-In the latest bizarro move by western nations meant to hurt Russia, but will blow back and help Putin get even richer while impoverishing western motorists with even higher gas prices, G7 leaders meeting at a Bavarian Alp summit, plan to impose a “price cap” on Russian oil as the group works to curb Moscow’s ability to finance its war in Ukraine, the FT reported. The latest sanction follows news that the same G7 will also impose an import ban on Russian gold, which western nations already can't buy, and which will only push even more physical gold into the willing hands of India and China while pushing global prices higher. Talks were set to continue on Monday, having begun on Sunday in the luxury resort of Schloss Elmau, where leaders want to enlist a range of countries beyond the G7 to put a ceiling on the price paid for Russian oil.

It isn't exactly clear just what such a cap would achieve since western nations have already "agreed" to ban Russian oil imports some time in 2023 (or maybe that was 2024... or 2025), but according to the FT, leaders hope a cap will limit the benefits of the soaring price of crude to the Kremlin. Of course, that won't work since non-G7 member states will pay Moscow anything it wants to be paid and as such the price cap will only demonstrate to the world just how meaningless G7 "unity" is in world where the two largest nations - India and China - side with Russia.

The idea of an oil price cap comes as the high price of crude means Russia’s revenues from oil exports have surged declined despite western restrictions on Russian oil imports. Concern is also mounting that attempts to ban ships carrying Russian oil from accessing western insurance markets this year could drive global oil prices to unprecedented levels. The International Energy Agency warns it could contribute to the shutdown of more than a quarter of Russia’s pre-invasion production.

Under the price-capping scheme, Europe would limit the availability of shipping and insurance services that enable the worldwide transport of Russian oil, mandating that the services would only be available if the price ceiling was observed by the importer. A similar restriction on the availability of US financial services could give the scheme added impact.

-After an unexpected jump in new home sales and larger than expected drop in existing home sales, today's pending home sales print is the tie-breaker for sentiment in the housing market in May as homebuilder sentiment soured and mortgage rates and applications soared. As it turns out pending home sales unexpectedly rose 0.7% MoM in May (versus a 4.0% MoM expected drop) and with a downward revision to April from -3.9% MoM to -4.0% MoM. This ends a 6 month streak of declines and some wondered if the brief drop in mortgage rates during May could have sparked the modest rebound (of course, as we show below, rates soared since).  “Despite the small gain in pending sales from the prior month, the housing market is clearly undergoing a transition,” NAR’s chief economist Lawrence Yun said in a statement. Pending home sales are still down around 12% YoY.

The NAR noted that at the median single-family home price and with a 10% down payment, the monthly mortgage payment has increased by about $800 since the beginning of the year.

-Russia defaulted on its foreign-currency sovereign debt for the first time in a century, the culmination of ever-tougher Western sanctions that shut down payment routes to overseas creditors.

-On Saturday night Vladimir Putin was rushed to the Kremlin. His entourage can be seen speeding through the streets in Moscow on the way to the Kremlin. “Putin suddenly arrived at the Kremlin at night Russian media report that the presidential cortege arrived at the #Kremlin at 23:00. This is extraordinary, usually it is associated with some important decision,” NEXTA tweeted. The news outlet added that Putin is not going to make emergency statements, citing a statement from Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov. Tass Media from Russia also confirmed that Putin did not arrive at the Kremlin to make a statement.

-A fresh New York Times report has confirmed what many already suspected - that the CIA is still very active inside Ukraine - especially with training as well coordinating weapons among its Ukrainian allies. The Times report details "a stealthy network of commandos and spies rushing to provide weapons, intelligence and training," based on US and European intelligence officials with knowledge of the operations. The report says Ukrainian forces are reliant on this Western clandestine network "more than ever" while outgunned by the Russians. This comes months after investigative journalist Zach Dorfman's bombshell expose in Yahoo News which detailed how a prior 8-year long CIA covert program to train Ukrainian fighters helped provoke the Russian invasion. The only question that remained after that March report was the extent to which the CIA was still active in the ongoing fight against the invading Russians.

The new Times reporting confirms that the US program is not only active and ongoing, but appears larger in scale than previously thought given the CIA's close cooperation with the Ukrainians is happening both inside and outside the country, across multiple locations. "Much of this work happens outside Ukraine, at bases in Germany, France and Britain, for example. But even as the Biden administration has declared it will not deploy American troops to Ukraine, some C.I.A. personnel have continued to operate in the country secretly, mostly in the capital, Kyiv, directing much of the vast amounts of intelligence the United States is sharing with Ukrainian forces, according to current and former officials," the report indicates.

It appears much the CIA's work in Ukraine is centered on coordinating intelligence with local intel services and counterparts. "Few other details have emerged about what the C.I.A. personnel or the commandos are doing, but their presence in the country — on top of the diplomatic staff members who returned after Russia gave up its siege of Kyiv — hints at the scale of the secretive effort to assist Ukraine that is underway and the risks that Washington and its allies are taking," NY Times continues.

Over the weekend, Canada also has been reported to have special operations troops inside Ukraine. This was reported months ago, but with a separate NYT report offering further confirmation. "Both CTV and Global News reported in late January that Canadian special forces had been sent to Ukraine, but National Defence did not comment on that deployment," Ottawa Citizen writes Sunday.

Yahoo News disclosed the following:

The CIA is overseeing a secret intensive training program in the U.S. for elite Ukrainian special operations forces and other intelligence personnel, according to five former intelligence and national security officials familiar with the initiative. The program, which started in 2015, is based at an undisclosed facility in the Southern U.S., according to some of those officials. The CIA-trained forces could soon play a critical role on Ukraine’s eastern border, where Russian troops have massed in what many fear is preparation for an invasion. The U.S. and Russia started security talks earlier this week in Geneva but have failed thus far to reach any concrete agreement. While the covert program, run by paramilitaries working for the CIA’s Ground Branch — now officially known as Ground Department — was established by the Obama administration after Russia’s invasion and annexation of Crimea in 2014, and expanded under the Trump administration, the Biden administration has further augmented it, said a former senior intelligence official in touch with colleagues in government.

On Sunday, the Kremlin underscored angrily that even as such clandestine programs are made public via deliberate "leaks" to the media, Washington has refused to answer simple questions regarding Western operatives and mercenaries inside Ukraine - also after a couple of American fighters were recently captured.

-Czechia has exhausted its stockpile of arms in helping Ukraine to defend itself following the invasion of Russian forces, Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala revealed on Thursday. Following a meeting with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, who thanked the Czech government for both its military and humanitarian support for Ukraine, Fiala said Czechia’s resources will need to be topped up before it can provide any more help on the front line. “Our stockpiles of Soviet-era weapon systems are dwindling and will need to be replenished,” Fiala told reporters. The Czech leader insisted the ongoing crisis unfolding in Ukraine will be a top priority during the upcoming Czech presidency of the EU, with Czechia intending to continue to support the Ukrainian army with weapons, as well as technical support and training.

-Ukraine will determine the terms of any peace deal with Russia, US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told the state-run Voice of America broadcaster on Friday. While others have suggested that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky should cede some territory for peace, Kirby said Washington is preparing for what could be “a prolonged conflict.”... Kirby insisted that Ukraine can fight on, and told Voice of America that “Mr. Zelensky is going to get to determine what victory looks like.” “Of course, we want Ukraine to succeed on the battlefield, and we want them to succeed at the negotiating table, if and when it comes to that,” Kirby continued. “We’re not at that stage right now. But we believe that President Zelensky is the one who gets to determine what victory looks like. “Our job is to make sure that he has the tools available to him to do that in the most efficient, effective way.”

-The RIA agency quoted a pro-Russian separatist official as saying separatist forces had evacuated more than 250 people, including children, on Sunday from Sievierodonetsk’s Azot chemical plant.

-Canada deployed two warships to the Baltic Sea and north Atlantic on Sunday, joining a pair of frigates already in the region in attempts to reinforce Nato’s eastern flank in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Her Majesty’s Canadian Ships (HMCS) Kingston and Summerside will be on a four-month deployment as part of “deterrence measures in central and eastern Europe”

-The Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, said on Saturday that Ukraine would win back all the cities it has lost to Russia, including Sievierodonetsk. “All our cities – Sievierodonetsk, Donetsk, Luhansk – we’ll get them all back,” he said in a late-night video address. Zelenskiy also admitted that the war was becoming difficult to handle emotionally.

-Having sparked hyperinflation in European gas prices and record energy costs around the globe with their poorly conceived and implemented Russian energy sanctions which have backfired spectacularly, allowing Moscow to reap record energy export profits and China and India to buy oil far below spot prices while leaving US motorists paying record prices at the pump, on Sunday the Biden admin alongside the G-7 announced that they will ban Russian gold imports to "further impose financial costs on Moscow for its invasion of Ukraine." The import ban will apply to gold leaving Russia for G-7 countries for the first time, and will be codified by the US Treasury Department on Tuesday. “The United States has imposed unprecedented costs on Putin to deny him the revenue he needs to fund his war against Ukraine,” Biden tweeted on Sunday, the first day of a G7 meeting in Germany; a formal announcement is expected later on during the summit. “Together, the G7 will announce that we will ban the import of Russian gold, a major export that rakes in tens of billions of dollars for Russia” he added.

-Germany is considering expropriating the German section of the Russia-led Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project, cutting it off from the rest of the pipeline, and using the part on German territory for connecting to LNG supply that will come from Baltic Sea ports, German magazine Der Spiegel reported on Friday. The plan will likely escalate the gas row between Germany and Russia, Der Spiegel comments on the information, for which it didn’t cite sources.

-India's intake of Russian crude oil has soared 50-fold since April and, to date, makes up a tenth of the subcontinent's imported oil, the Economic Times reported today, citing a senior government official. Some 40 percent of the total Russian oil imports are going into private refineries, the report noted. Earlier this month, data showed India's imports of Russian crude over the first quarter of this year alone were five times higher than all the Russian crude India imported in 2021.