Russia/Ukraine War Update - March 31st, 2022

*** MILITARY SITUATION ***

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 30th

Russia is withdrawing some elements of its forces around Kyiv into Belarus for likely redeployment to other axes of advance and did not conduct any offensive operations around the city in the past 24 hours, but Russian forces will likely continue to hold their forwardmost positions and shell Ukrainian forces and residential areas. Ukrainian forces repelled several Russian attacks in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in the past 24 hours and Russian forces likely continued to take territory in Mariupol. Russian forces held their positions and did not conduct offensive operations throughout the rest of the country. Russian forces will likely capture Mariupol in the coming days but likely suffered high casualties taking the city, and Russian force generation efforts and the redeployment of damaged units from the Kyiv axis are increasingly unlikely to enable Russian forces to make rapid gains in the Donbas region.

Russia is reportedly increasingly deploying support personnel and auxiliary units to replace combat losses in Ukraine. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russia is deploying servicemen from military support units, including educational institutions, to replace combat losses. Russian officer casualties and the decision to strip Russian training units of personnel will further impede the Russian military’s ability to train new conscripts and replacements. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that three battalion tactical groups (BTGs) including up to 2,000 Russian and South Ossetian personnel from Russia’s 4th and 7th Military Bases in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, respectively, deployed to unspecified locations in Ukraine. Social media users observed South Ossetian forces in the Donbas region on March 29, but ISW cannot independently confirm if the entirety of these reinforcements were deployed to Donbas.

The Ukrainian General Staff additionally stated that Russia faces continuing morale and supply issues, including contract servicemen (volunteer troops, not conscripts) in the 26th Tank Regiment requesting to terminate their contracts and relocate to garrison service, and elements of the 150th Motor Rifle Division receiving inoperable equipment from military storage. The Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate additionally claimed that Russian military procurement is “on the verge of failure” due to western sanctions and that Russia cannot produce modern weapons and equipment without foreign electronics. ISW cannot independently confirm these Ukrainian intelligence reports, but they are largely consistent with previously confirmed reports of low Russian morale and equipment failures.

-Russian forces around Kyiv held their forward positions and continued to defend against limited Ukrainian counterattacks. Russian forces are unlikely to give up their secured territory around the city and are continuing to dig in.

-ISW can confirm Russia is withdrawing some units around Kyiv for likely redeployment to other axes of advance, but cannot confirm any changes in Russian force posture around Chernihiv as of this time.

-Russian forces did not conduct any offensive operations in northeastern Ukraine in the past 24 hours.

-Elements of the 20th Combined Arms Army and 1st Guards Tank Army are redeploying to support Russian operations on Izyum, but are unlikely to take the city in the near future.

-Ukrainian forces repelled continuing Russian assaults in Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts. Russian forces continued to take territory in Mariupol but are likely suffering high casualties.

*** ECONOMIC & POLITICAL ***

-Two Russian planes that violated Swedish airspace earlier this month were equipped with nuclear weapons, it has emerged. The flyover near the island of Gotland on March 2 was a deliberate act designed to intimidate Sweden, according to Swedish news channel TV4 Nyheterna. A total of four planes had taken off from the Russian air base of Kaliningrad. They consisted of two Sukhoi 24 attack planes, which were escorted by two Sukhoi 27 fighter jets. It was the two attack planes which were, according to TV4 Nyheter sources, equipped with nuclear weapons. The violation of Swedish territory lasted for about a minute. The country's air force deployed two JAS 39 Gripen which took pictures of the intruders. It was then, say Swedish media, that it was confirmed the Russian planes were equipped with nuclear warheads.

Two Russian aircrafts SU 27 and two nuclear armed SU 24 are pictured after violating Swedish airspace east of Gotland

-A would-be fighter tells VICE World News that concerns over a lack of firepower, war tourists, and potentially being executed by the Russians have put him off joining Ukraine's foreign legion. When Phil, a 35-year-old former officer in the British Army, heard Ukraine’s call for foreign fighters to help defend the country from the Russian invasion, he felt he had to join the fight. But after a fact-finding trip into Ukraine to get a better handle on the situation, he’s had second thoughts. “There’s no point wasting my life for nothing,” he told VICE World News. “If I think I can go and support in a way that’s going to contribute to the security of Ukraine and the safety of Europe, then I will. But I don’t want to go on a suicide mission.”

A month on, there’s growing evidence that the reality of life as a foreign volunteer in Ukraine isn’t squaring with the romantic fantasy. Many foreign fighters, disenchanted with what they encountered, have already gone home early, with gripes ranging from a lack of adequate equipment and poor organisation, to the calibre of fellow foreign recruits. One group of volunteers fled across the Polish border after a Russian missile attack on Yavoriv military base, where international recruits were receiving training, last month.

Canada’s Globe and Mail recently spoke to fighters who had abandoned the battle amid concerns over the lack of equipment, and being required to sign indefinite contracts, and were now doing humanitarian relief work in the country instead. A recent report in Belgium’s Het Laatste Nieuws newspaper claimed that more than half of the country’s foreign fighters in Ukraine had already returned home. “I didn't feel like serving as foreign cannon fodder,” one returnee told the outlet.  

-Russia’s defence ministry said its forces were regrouping near the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, and the northern city of Chernihiv in order to focus on other key areas and complete the “liberation” of the breakaway Donbas region, Russian news agencies reported. The announcement comes after it said it would drastically scale back military operations near Kyiv and Chernihiv. The Pentagon press secretary John Kirby later said the US believed the strategy chance was “a repositioning, not a real withdrawal”.

-Over the last 24 hours, the first six of “around 30” shipments of US security assistance arrived in Ukraine, Pentagon spokesperson John Kirby said. “Material is getting into the region every single day, including over the last 24 hours,” Kirby said. According to CNN, Kirby said the US is prioritizing “the kinds of material that we know the Ukrainians need the most”, including anti-armor and anti-air systems. He also said the Switchblade drones promised to Ukraine will begin shipping in “relatively soon”.

-Washington made a “prudent decision” to withdraw two US Navy destroyers from the Black Sea in January, and their eventual return will be decided based on national security considerations, the Pentagon said on Wednesday. The US Navy “routinely” moves ships into or out of the Black Sea, but made the call to withdraw the two Arleigh Burke-class guided missile destroyers sometime in January, Department of Defense spokesman John Kirby told reporters at the Pentagon daily briefing. Kirby was commenting on the revelation made by the European Command head, General Tod Wolters, earlier in the day, when he told the House Armed Services Committee that the two destroyers were withdrawn due to the worsening situation in Ukraine.

-Putin’s approval ratings surged in March to levels not seen in five years as the war in Ukraine enters its second month, according to an independent survey. According to the Levada Center, Putin’s job approval grew to 83% in March from 71% in February. The last time Putin reached similar approval ratings was in 2017.

-Russian hackers have recently attempted to penetrate the networks of NATO and the militaries of some eastern European countries, Google’s Threat Analysis Group said in a report published on Wednesday.

-Less than 20% of Russian forces that are stationed around Kyiv are being repositioned, according to the Pentagon. But they are unlikely to head home and are instead expected to be resupplied and redeployed, Reuters is reporting. Some of them may have already moved into Belarus, according to Pentagon spokesman John Kirby, and Russian contractor Wagner Group has also deployed about 1,000 contractors into Ukraine’s Donbas region.

-Russian forces are starting to withdraw from the Chernobyl nuclear site, reports AFP citing the US Pentagon. A senior US official said that Russian troops are “walking away” from the facility and going into Belarus.

-The United States will provide $500m (£380m) in budgetary assistance to Ukraine, President Joe Biden told Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskiy on a call today.

-UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson allegedly told his cabinet on Tuesday that he wants to provide Ukraine with “more lethal” military aid to help the country repel the Russian attack, The Times reported on Wednesday, citing a government source. Western countries have been urgently supplying Ukraine with weapons after Moscow launched its military campaign on February 24. Kiev, however, has repeatedly asked for more aid, arguing that the current level of support is not enough.

-Russia has been accused of intensifying its bombardment of the besieged Ukrainian city of Chernihiv despite claims the Kremlin would drawback out of respect for ongoing peace talks. Vladyslav Atroshenko, Chernihiv’s mayor, said the Russians had lied and that they were continuing to heavily hit his city. “They’re saying reducing intensity, they actually have increased the intensity of strikes,” he told CNN.

-There was also continued barraging of Kyiv’s suburbs, Ukrainian officials said, said although a defence ministry spokesperson said there were some signs of troop movements away from the two cities. Russia’s defence ministry said its forces were regrouping near Kyiv and Chernihiv in order to focus on other key areas and complete the “liberation” of the breakaway Donbas region, Russian news agencies reported.

-The Ukrainian military said Russian troops were also intensifying their attacks around the eastern city of Izyum and the eastern Donetsk region, after redeploying some units from other areas. The regional Donetsk governor, Pavlo Kyrylenko, said Russian forces are shelling nearly all cities along the frontline separating Ukrainian government-controlled territory from the self-proclaimed republic of Donetsk in the east.

-Vladimir Putin told his French counterpart, Emmanuel Macron, that Russian shelling of Mariupol will end only when Ukrainian troops surrender, the Kremlin said.

-Following Zelenskiy's earlier comments, Interfax is now reporting anything-but-peaceful comments from Russia as the Ministry of Defense says "The Russian army has created conditions for the final stage of the operation to liberate Donbas." The Ministry also stated that "all main tasks of the armed forces of Russia in Kiev and Chernigov have been completed."

-The West will not agree to Russia’s request to pay for gas in rubles, French President Emmanuel Macron told his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, according to Reuters. Macron told Putin it was impossible for Western clients to pay for gas in Russian currency, the news agency reported on Tuesday, citing an Elysee official.

-Beijing has condemned US attempts to “contain and suppress” China and Russia, saying they would not succeed, after it was reported that the Biden administration had described China in its new National Defense Strategy as its “most consequential strategic competitor.” President Joe Biden briefed members of Congress on the classified version of the new strategy on Monday, which comes as Washington looks to increase its defense budget to $773 billion. Responding to a summary of the strategy documents, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin said they were “full of Cold War and bloc confrontation mentality.”

-On Tuesday, BlackRock Inc. President Rob Kapito told an audience in Austin, Texas, hosted by the Texas Independent Producers and Royalty Owners Association, that an entire younger generation is quickly finding out what it means to suffer from shortages, according to Bloomberg. "For the first time, this generation is going to go into a store and not be able to get what they want," Kapito said. "And we have a very entitled generation that has never had to sacrifice." He said the economy suffers from "scarcity inflation" due to the fallout of labor shortages, lack of agricultural supplies and affordable housing, and high energy prices.

-Russia’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, hailed China as part of a new “just, democratic world order” ahead of a meeting with his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi. In his first visit to China since Russia invaded Ukraine last month, Lavrov said the world was “living through a very serious stage in the history of international relations”. Wang said Beijing and Moscow are “more determined” to develop bilateral ties and boost cooperation and reaffirmed China’s support for continued peace talks between Russia and Ukraine.

-The Russian president, Vladimir Putin, has promoted Ramzan Kadyrov to lieutenant-general for his role in the invasion of Ukraine, which the Chechen leader is using to showcase his loyalty to Moscow and his own impunity, Emma Graham-Harrison and Vera Mironova report.

-The status of Crimea is settled for Russia, and Moscow will not discuss the issue with Ukraine or any other party, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told journalists on Wednesday. He was commenting on the outcome of peace talks in Turkey.

-Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov indicated on Wednesday that all of the nation's energy and commodity exports could be priced in rubles. Moscow has already demanded that gas exports to hostile countries should be paid for in the Russian currency. Peskov was asked about the comments by parliament speaker Vyacheslav Volodin, who earlier in the day called for pricing all of Russian commodity exports in domestic currency. “This is an idea that should definitely be worked on,” the Kremlin spokesman said.

-What if the conventional wisdom is wrong? What if the West is only playing into Putin’s hands once again? The possibility is suggested in a powerful reminiscence from The Times’s Carlotta Gall of her experience covering Russia’s siege of Grozny, during the first Chechen war in the mid-1990s. In the early phases of the war, motivated Chechen fighters wiped out a Russian armored brigade, stunning Moscow. The Russians regrouped and wiped out Grozny from afar, using artillery and air power.

Russia’s operating from the same playbook today. When Western military analysts argue that Putin can’t win militarily in Ukraine, what they really mean is that he can’t win clean. Since when has Putin ever played clean? “There is a whole next stage to the Putin playbook, which is well known to the Chechens,” Gall writes. “As Russian troops gained control on the ground in Chechnya, they crushed any further dissent with arrests and filtration camps and by turning and empowering local protégés and collaborators.”

Suppose for a moment that Putin never intended to conquer all of Ukraine: that, from the beginning, his real targets were the energy riches of Ukraine’s east, which contain Europe’s second-largest known reserves of natural gas (after Norway’s). Combine that with Russia’s previous territorial seizures in Crimea (which has huge offshore energy fields) and the eastern provinces of Luhansk and Donetsk (which contain part of an enormous shale-gas field), as well as Putin’s bid to control most or all of Ukraine’s coastline, and the shape of Putin’s ambitions become clear. He’s less interested in reuniting the Russian-speaking world than he is in securing Russia’s energy dominance.

“Under the guise of an invasion, Putin is executing an enormous heist,” said Canadian energy expert David Knight Legg. As for what’s left of a mostly landlocked Ukraine, it will likely become a welfare case for the West, which will help pick up the tab for resettling Ukraine’s refugees to new homes outside of Russian control. In time, a Viktor Orban-like figure could take Ukraine’s presidency, imitating the strongman-style of politics that Putin prefers in his neighbors.

It also makes sense of his strategy of targeting civilians. More than simply a way of compensating for the incompetence of Russian troops, the mass killing of civilians puts immense pressure on Zelensky to agree to the very things Putin has demanded all along: territorial concessions and Ukrainian neutrality. The West will also look for any opportunity to de-escalate, especially as we convince ourselves that a mentally unstable Putin is prepared to use nuclear weapons.

Within Russia, the war has already served Putin’s political purposes. Many in the professional middle class — the people most sympathetic to dissidents like Aleksei Navalny — have gone into self-imposed exile. The remnants of a free press have been shuttered, probably for good. To the extent that Russia’s military has embarrassed itself, it is more likely to lead to a well-aimed purge from above than a broad revolution from below. Russia’s new energy riches could eventually help it shake loose the grip of sanctions.

This alternative analysis of Putin’s performance could be wrong. Then again, in war, politics and life, it’s always wiser to treat your adversary as a canny fox, not a crazy fool.

-Germany and Austria have triggered emergency plans over possible gas supply disruption amid a payments stand-off with Russia. Russia had demanded "unfriendly" countries pay for its gas in roubles from 31 March, but the EU, which mainly pays in euros, rejected the idea. Moscow later appeared to soften its stance, saying on Wednesday rouble payments would be introduced gradually. But Germany and Austria have taken the first steps towards gas rationing Germany urged consumers and companies to reduce consumption in anticipation of possible shortages, while Austria said it was tightening its monitoring of the gas market.

-Russian President Vladimir Putin and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz spoke by phone on Wednesday to discuss Moscow's demand that Berlin pay for Russian gas with rubles, rather than in euros or dollars. According to the German version of events, Putin agreed that payments would continue for the moment in either of the two Western currencies, with the Kremlin stating that these payments would then be converted into the Russian currency. Moscow claimed that Putin explained to Scholz that his government is now demanding payment in rubles “due to the fact that, in violation of international law, the foreign exchange reserves of the Bank of Russia were frozen by the EU

-South Ossetia, a partially recognized republic in the Caucasus region, will soon be taking legal steps in an attempt to join the Russian Federation, its president, Anatoly Bibilov, has announced. Most of the world officially regards the territory as part of Georgia, although Tbilisi hasn't held control since the Soviet collapse in 1991.member states.” However, Putin told Scholz that the switchover would not result in less advantageous contract conditions for German importers.

-Reuters reports that local authorities have begun locking down some western parts of Shanghai two days ahead of schedule as the number of new cases detected in China's most populous city increased by one-third despite stringent measures already in place to try to stop the virus spreading. The city's lockdown is only in its third day.

-Bloomberg reports that, according to people familiar with the matter, the Biden administration is weighing a plan to release roughly one million barrels of oil a day for several months. The total release may be as much as 180 million barrels, the people said, which is quite a step up from the 30mm barrel release 'mulled' on March 25th (yes 5 days ago). However... as much as we want lower gas prices, these actions by the administration are bordering on the insane. Of course, just like last year's SPR release, which actually sent oil prices higher as the strategy backfired spectacularly, another shot of supplies from the reserve would probably be futile. To further illustrate this point, the chart below shows that a release of 180M barrels from the reserve (which is supposed to be reserved for emergencies) would take the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to its lowest since 1984...and so far has done absolutely nothing to slow the surge in prices.

Russia/Ukraine War Update - March 30th, 2022

*** MILITARY SITUATION ***

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 29th

The Russians have not yet abandoned their attacks on Kyiv, claims by Russian Defense Ministry officials notwithstanding. Russian forces continued fighting to hold their forwardmost positions on the eastern and western Kyiv outskirts even as badly damaged units withdrew to Russia from elsewhere on the Kyiv and Chernihiv axes. The Russian high command has likely concluded that it cannot seize Kyiv and may not be able to move artillery closer to the center of the city. It may have decided to stop its previous practices of forcing units that have already taken devastating losses to continue hopeless offensive operations and of feeding individual battalion tactical groups into the battle as they become available rather than concentrating them to achieve decisive effects. Russian officials are likely casting these decisions driven by military realities as overtures demonstrating Russia’s willingness to engage in serious ceasefire or peace negotiations, possibly to conceal the fact that they have accepted the failure of their efforts on the Kyiv axis.

Russia continues to reinforce its efforts in Ukraine’s northeast likely attempting to link its positions southeast of Kharkiv and Izyum with its forces in Luhansk Oblast. The Russians have reportedly redirected forces from the Chernihiv-Kharkiv axis to the Izyum-Slovyansk axis, most likely reassigning reinforcements rather than redeploying units already committed to fighting. Russian forces in the Izyum-Slovyansk area continue fighting to hold and expand their penetration to the southeast.

The Russian advance in Mariupol continues to gain ground, and Russian forces have likely bisected or even trisected the city. Pockets of Ukrainian defenders continue to hold out in Mariupol, likely in several areas, but the Russians will likely complete the conquest of the city within days. Russian forces have likely taken significant casualties in the tough urban fighting in Mariupol, making it difficult to evaluate how much combat power the Russians will be able to harvest from Mariupol to use for further advances north and west.

Russian operations in southeastern Ukraine have left large portions of Donetsk Oblast under Ukrainian control. Securing the boundaries of Donetsk Oblast along with the entirety of Luhansk Oblast will likely require a major offensive operation. Much of the area of Donetsk Oblast outside Russian control is flat and sparsely populated—terrain similar to that on which Russian forces elsewhere have been able to advance rapidly, at least earlier in the war. Russian offensive operations in similar terrain more recently have struggled, however. It is too soon to tell how feasible the Russian conquest of all of Donetsk and Luhansk will be for the Russian military in its current state.

Russia reportedly continues to struggle in its efforts to generate new combat power and replenish equipment. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on March 29 that Russian troops are drawing equipment out of long-term storage in Boguchar, Voronezh Oblast, but that 40% of that equipment is inoperable. The General Staff also reported that Russian efforts to generate reinforcements from the Pacific Fleet could not produce even a single battalion because of refusals to fight. We have no independent confirmation of these assessments, but Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu‘s March 29 statement that Russia would not deploy conscripts to “hot spots” corroborates assessments of Russian soldiers’ unwillingness to enter the war. The UK Ministry of Defense reported on March 28 that the Wagner Group is deploying forces, including senior leaders, to eastern Ukraine to make up for heavy Russian combat losses.

-Russian forces continued to make steady but likely painful progress in seizing the city of Mariupol on March 29. Fighting has been intense, with Donetsk People’s Republic leaders claiming that Russian forces have made significant advances and the Ukrainian General Staff claiming that Ukrainian forces continue to maintain a coherent defense. Mariupol will likely fall within days.

-We now assess that Russian forces have given up on encircling or seizing Kyiv at this time. Russian forces continue to fight to hold their current front-line trace near the city, however, remaining dug into positions to the east, northwest, and west. Russian forces withdrawing from the area around Kyiv appear to be moving north from behind the front line to positions in Belarus.

-Russia is directing some reserves to the effort to connect gains southeast of Kharkiv and Izyum with its front line in Luhansk.

-Ukrainian forces continue to defend in likely isolated pockets in Mariupol. The city will likely fall to the Russians within days.

-A Russian offensive operation to take the rest of unoccupied Donetsk Oblast would be a significant undertaking. It remains unclear if Russia can harvest enough combat power from Mariupol after securing the city or divert reinforcements from elsewhere on a large enough scale to complete it.

-Russian withdrawal from north is merely a rotation of troops with aim to 'mislead', Ukraine military says. Ukraine’s general staff of the armed forces has just released its latest intelligence report as of 10pm local time, claiming Russian troops continue to withdraw from the territory of Kyiv and Chernihiv in the Ukraine’s north but the movement is merely “a rotation of individual units” and aims to “mislead the military leadership” of Ukraine.

-Battle Damage Assessment. Successful Ukrainian ambushes, counterattacks, and supply route raiding have left Russian forces in the Sumy Oblast demoralized & running low on basic soldier & equipment maintenance needs. Equip is routinely abandoned.

-The siege of Sumy has generally been lifted as Ukrainian forces have been able to relieve the city and bisect Russian positions from Sumy to Okhtyrka because of the withdrawal of Russian forces to the Kharkiv-Donbas Strategic Front. The inability of Russian forces to secure multiple lines of communication and a reliable base of operations has fractured operational momentum to the point that localized defense is all the Russian military is capable of sustaining on this front

-It is doubtful Russia will truly “drastically” scale-back operations in Kyiv or Chernihiv. Though efforts will shift to the east, Russia will maintain pressure here as negotiations continue by holding occupied territory and executing limited offensives as opportunity arise.

-Chernihiv remains under Ukrainian control. There are clear indications that Russian forces are establishing a new defensive line along the Snov River to the east/ NE of Chernihiv. It is not clear yet how Russian dispositions in east Kyiv have shifted.

-Ukraine’s eastern city of Lysychansk has been shelled by heavy artillery this morning with widespread damage to residential areas, according to local officials.

-The UK’s Ministry of Defence claims Russian units suffering heavy losses have been forced to return to Belarus and Russia to reorganise and resupply.

-In Ukraine’s intelligence report as of 10pm local time, its military claimed Russian troops continue to withdraw from Kyiv and Chernihiv but the movement is merely “a rotation of individual units” and aims to “mislead the military leadership” of Ukraine.

*** ECONOMIC & POLITICAL ***

-A Russian military weapons depot has exploded in the city of Belgorod, close to the Ukrainian border. Russian state media reports that Ukraine shelling struck the arsenal causing it to explode. There are at least four injuries although that may be downplaying the severity of the attack. Witnesses said the strike had “presumably” come either “via drone or short range ballistic missile”. Video of the explosion shared to the social media platform shows a huge explosion illuminating the night sky in the distance of the scene being filmed. It seems to cause the ground to shake, with the clip shuddering up and down as the videographer pans the scene.

-The governor of Ukraine’s northern Chernihiv region said he saw no let-up in Russian attacks despite a promise by Moscow to scale down military operations there.

-Russia and China’s foreign ministers Sergei Lavrov and Wang Yi have met today in China

-The US state department has warned American citizens not to travel to Ukraine or Russia in its latest travel advisory. “There are continued reports of US citizens being singled out and detained by the Russian military in Ukraine and when evacuating by land through Russia-occupied territory or to Russia or Belarus,” it said. The US embassy has limited ability to assist US citizens in Russia, it noted.

-Germany has declared an “early warning” that it could be heading for a gas supply emergency and said the measure was aimed at preparing for a possible disruption of natural gas flows from Russia. Economy minister Robert Habeck said supplies had been safeguarded for the time being and that Germany was closely monitoring supply flows with market operations.

-The US State Department earlier implied that Biden's weekend regime change comments saying that "butcher" Vladimir Putin "cannot remain in power" were more based in "emotions" and not on official White House policy. Russia has subsequently seized upon the perhaps dubious explanation and walk-back, with the foreign ministry expressing it hopes that Biden's "emotions will not lead to him doing something irreparable and dangerous for the whole world while under their influence." Just prior to the weekend speech from Warsaw, Biden had called Putin a "murderous" and "bloody dictator" and "thug" - this also after last month the US administration imposing personal sanctions on the Russian leader. Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov in follow-up said that while security dialogue is needed between Washington and Moscow, this window is rapidly closing due to "personal insults" from the US side, suggesting things could escalate to a more dangerous place. "We really hear and see statements that are actually already personal insults against President Putin," Peskov said as reported in RT. Peskov further indicted that despite such "almost daily" insults, Russia would refrain from responding in kind so as to avoid unnecessary escalation of rhetoric, and to leave open the possibility of dialogue.

-President Biden appeared to reveal on Monday that the US is training Ukrainian troops in Poland. Biden made the comments when trying to explain a recent gaffe. In Poland on Friday, President Biden told members of the 82nd Airborne Division that Ukrainians were “stepping up” against the Russian assault and said, “You’re going to see when you’re there,” suggesting that the US soldiers would be entering the war zone. Explaining his comments on Monday, Biden said, “We were talking about helping train the troops in — that are — the Ukrainian troops that are in Poland. That’s what the context.” When asked about Biden’s comments, a White House official told Politico that US troops are “interacting” with Ukrainian soldiers in Poland. “There are Ukrainian soldiers in Poland interacting on a regular basis with US troops, and that’s what the President was referring to,” the official said.

-Ukraine says that one of its main internet service providers used by the country's military was hit with a massive cyberattack on Monday as part of stepped up Russian efforts to unleash more in its tech arsenal to degrade Ukraine's defense capabilities. Importantly the fresh attack was called among the worst Ukraine has suffered since the war's start. The Wall Street Journal detailed that "The attack on Ukrtelecom PJSC was described by some experts as among the most harmful cyberattacks since the Russian invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24. About 3:30 p.m. ET on Monday, Ukrainian officials said that they had repelled the attack, and that the company could restore services, according to a statement from Ukraine’s State Service of Special Communication and Information Protection, which is responsible for cybersecurity in the country."

-Media reports claim that Russia's high command has already started to withdraw forces from around Kiev in what the US believes represents a "major" policy shift.

Russia is beginning to withdraw some forces from around the Ukrainian capital Kyiv, in what the US assesses is a “major” strategy shift, two senior US officials tell me. US is already observing movements underway of Russian Battalion Tactical Groups (BTGs) 1/

In the US view, this is not a short-term adjustment to regroup, but a longer-term move as Russia comes to grips with failure to advance in the north. Russian MOD said Tuesday it has decided to “drastically reduce hostilities” in the Kyiv and Chernihiv directions.

Russia has reportedly said it wouldn't mind if the Ukrainians joined the EU, so long as they remain militarily neutral. But whether or not this is a genuine breakthrough remains to be seen. In the scenario that Russia does follow through with its earlier in the day declaration that it will cut military operations around the two named major Ukrainian cities, it's likely to consolidate forces in the east in order to focus on the Donbas region.

It doesn't seem Washington shares in the optimism coming out of the day's concluded Russia-Ukraine talks in Istanbul, with Secretary of State Antony Blinken commenting negatively on Russian assertions that its military will draw down operations near Kiev and Chernihiv. Blinken while traveling in the Middle East said the US has not seen signs of "real seriousness from Russia" - this after the Pentagon also said it has yet to observe a reduction of fighting from Russian units near Kiev.

Not long after Washington downplayed reports of a Russian drawdown of troops around Kiev and Chernihiv, Interfax reports (citing Russia's top negotiator) that the de-escalation doesn't necessarily mean a ceasefire is near.

-The UK has seen signs of “some reduction” in Russian bombardment around the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, Downing Street said. However, the UK wants to see a full withdrawal of Russian forces from Ukraine and will judge tentative steps towards a possible peace deal by actions rather than words, Boris Johnson’s spokesperson said.

-The US is seeing Russia beginning to withdraw some of its forces from the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, in what it believes is a change in Russian strategy in Ukraine, senior US military officials said. The US is already observing a major strategy shift after Russia’s defence ministry announced earlier today that it would “drastically reduce” military activity outside Kyiv and Chernihiv, according to two senior US officials. Russia is beginning to withdraw some forces, including Russian Battalion Tactical Groups (BTGs) leaving the surrounding areas around the Ukrainian capital, CNN cited the officials as saying. The Russian forces now pulling back in some areas of the north to focus on gains in the south and east. The officials warned that Russia could always reverse their latest move.

-There needs to be full peace across Ukraine for any final agreement with Russia to come into force, the head of the Ukrainian delegation said following talks with Moscow in Istanbul on Tuesday. David Arakhamia told reporters that all troops must retreat from Ukraine and allow the 3.5 million refugees who fled the war to come back home. He added that there was enough material in Ukraine’s proposals to warrant a meeting between Volodymyr Zelenskiy and Vladimir Putin.

-It's claimed that Vladimir Putin and his top Kremlin officials are in top secret rural bunkers while they direct their invasion of Ukraine - an alarming signal the war could be about to escalate. New evidence has emerged suggesting that Vladimir Putin and his high command are based some or all the time in top-secret nuclear bunkers as the bloody war unfolds in Ukraine. Since Putin launched his invasion of Ukraine last month (February 24), his whereabouts have been unknown. But movements of planes used by top Kremlin officials show Putin may be in a hideaway near Surgut in western Siberia, it is claimed. His defence minister Sergei Shoigu - who has been mysteriously absent for several weeks sparking rumours about his health - is believed to be in a bunker near Ufa in the Urals, 725 miles east of Moscow, said investigative journalist Christo Grozev. This theory is backed by his daughter Ksenia Shoigu, 31, visiting Ufa - where she was pictured - for up to three days from March 22 as speculation was rife that the defence minister had suffered heart problems. The use of the high-security bunkers - if confirmed - is alarming and suggests Putin may be preparing to deploy nuclear weapons, and move that would lead to inevitable reprisal. Grozev - who has links to British investigative outlet Bellingcat - said: “I am absolutely sure that Shoigu is in a bunker. “Tracking the movement of his plane, we see very frequent flights to Ufa. “Knowing that there are also protected bunkers in this region, this gives an obvious answer about his place of residence.” In an interview with Ukraine-24 channel, he told TV anchor Yevgeny Kiselyov: “This is our very justified version. “I believe in it, and I consider it to be a purely analytical conclusion. There can’t be any other conclusion. “If the Kremlin’s war strategy assumes a nuclear strike - and it does - as [Dmitry] Peskov [Putin’s spokesman] himself said on CNN a couple of days ago, then there cannot be any other version. “If there is a decision of a potential nuclear strike, they can’t hide the military leadership afterwards. They have to be hidden beforehand. “I am absolutely certain he is in a so-called bunker, and by trailing the plane he usually flies, we see very frequent, almost daily flights to Ufa. He believed Putin had another bunker elsewhere: “Most likely he is elsewhere, because we are seeing other flights, and they are more classified than the flight that goes to Ufa. “These are state planes, and they switch off their transponders somewhere around Surgut.” This is Russia ’s oil capital and is some 1,800 miles northeast of Moscow.

-Four Russian officials have been expelled from Ireland for “activities not in accordance with diplomatic behaviour, the Irish department of foreign affairs has said. It will keep diplomatic relations open and allow the Russian embassy to remain open.

-Ukrainian President Volodymr Zelenskiy will address Australia’s parliament on Thursday evening by video, according to parliament records cited by Reuters.

-US President Joe Biden’s deputy national security adviser for economics, Daleep Singh, will travel to New Delhi and meet government officials to discuss Russia’s war against Ukraine and develop an economic framework for the Indo-Pacific, the White House said on Tuesday. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is also planning to visit India, one of the biggest buyers of Russian commodities.

-The war in Ukraine will have a global impact “beyond anything we’ve seen since World War Two” and damage global food security because many of the Ukrainian farmers who produce a significant amount of the world’s wheat are now fighting Russians, the UN’s food chief has warned. David Beasley, executive director of the UN World Food Program, told the UN Security Council that already high food prices are skyrocketing. His agency was feeding 125 million people around the world before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Beasley said it has had to start cutting their rations because of rising food, fuel and shipping costs, the Associated Press reports.

-Former US president Donald Trump has called on Russian president Vladimir Putin to release any damaging information he has about the Biden family and Hunter Biden’s dealings with oligarchs in eastern Europe. “I would think Putin would know the answer to that,” Trump said in an interview with Just the News, referring to Hunter Biden’s potential dealings in Russia. “I think he should release it. I think we should know that answer.” Trump cited a 2020 Senate report that disclosed Russian oligarch Yelena Baturina, then the wife of Moscow’s mayor, provided $3.5 million a decade ago to a company co-founded by President Joe Biden’s son and unanswered questions about why the money was given. “How is it that the mayor of Moscow, his wife gave the Biden family three and a half million dollars? I think Putin now would be willing to probably give that answer,” Trump said. “I’m sure he knows.” A grand jury has been investigating Hunter Biden’s business dealings for possible tax violations, foreign lobbying issues and money laundering but he has denied any wrongdoing.

Russia/Ukraine War Update - March 29th, 2022

*** MILITARY SITUATION ***

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 28th

Ukrainian forces recaptured Irpin, northwest of Kyiv, on March 28. Ongoing Ukrainian counterattacks around Kyiv will likely disrupt ongoing Russian efforts to reconstitute forces and resume major offensive operations to encircle Kyiv. Ukrainian forces additionally repelled Russian attacks toward Brovary, east of Kyiv, in the past 24 hours. Russian forces in northeastern Ukraine remain stalled and did not conduct offensive operations against Chernihiv, Sumy, or Kharkiv in the past 24 hours. Russian forces continue to make grinding progress in Mariupol but were unable to secure territory in either Donbas or toward Mykolayiv.

Russian conscription efforts, which Ukrainian intelligence expects to begin on April 1, are unlikely to provide Russian forces around Ukraine with sufficient combat power to restart major offensive operations in the near term. Russia’s pool of available well-trained replacements remains low and new conscripts will require months to reach even a minimum standard of readiness. Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on March 28 that Russia will begin conscription through the BARS-2021 (Combat Army Reserve of the Country) program on April 1 alongside the normal semi-annual conscription cycle on April 1 to “conceal mass mobilization measures.”The GUR reported that BARS-2021 reservists will replenish units operating in Ukraine and will be supported by convicted criminals recruited through the BARS program in return for full amnesty.

The Russian military launched the BARS-2021 program in 2021 in order to establish an active reserve by recruiting volunteer reservists for three-year contract service. BARS-2021 operated on the same principle as US and NATO reserves, where reservists actively train and are compensated while maintaining their civilian jobs. The Russian Armed Forces sought to create exclusively reservist units but likely did not accomplish its goals due to low engagement from Russian citizens. The Russian Defense Ministry hoped to recruit more than 100,000 reservists starting in August 2021, but it is unlikely the Kremlin was able to achieve its goals on such a short timeline.

The Russian military is likely close to exhausting its available reserves of units capable of deploying to Ukraine. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on March 28 that Russia continues to train and deploy additional units to Ukraine, including the Pacific Fleet’s 155th Naval Infantry Brigade and an unspecified element of the 14th Separate Guards Special Purpose Brigade. The Ukrainian General Staff additionally reported on March 27 that unspecified Western Military District and Pacific Fleet units continued to deploy toward Ukraine, but that Ukraine has observed a “significant decrease in the intensity of traffic from the depths of the Russian Federation”—indicating Russia has likely already deployed most of its reserves to Ukraine. The Ukrainian General Staff additionally stated that Russia is covertly mobilizing the population of the Russian-backed, Georgian breakaway region of South Ossetia to support the war in Ukraine and has already transferred 150 South Ossetian fighters to Crimea.

-Russian forces have not abandoned their objective to encircle and capture Kyiv, despite Kremlin claims that Russian forces will concentrate on eastern Ukraine.
    
-Ukrainian forces recaptured the Kyiv suburb of Irpin on March 28. Ukrainian forces will likely seek to take advantage of ongoing Russian force rotations to retake further territory northwest of Kyiv in the coming days.
    
-Russian forces conducted unsuccessful attacks toward Brovary and did not conduct offensive operations toward Chernihiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv. Russian operations in northeastern Ukraine remain stalled.
    
-The Ukrainian General Staff stated that a battalion tactical group (BTG) of the 1st Guards Tank Army fully withdrew from Ukrainian territory near Sumy back to Russia for possible redeployment – the first Ukrainian report of a Russian unit fully withdrawing into Russia for redeployment to another axis of advance in this conflict.
    
-Russian forces continued to steadily take territory in Mariupol.
    
-Ukrainian resistance around Kherson continues to tie down Russian forces in the area. Russian forces did not conduct any offensive operations in the southern direction.

-Kyiv sees no signs on the ground that Russia has given up a plan to surround the Ukrainian capital, Ukrainian defence ministry spokesperson Oleksander Motuzyanyk said. “For now we don’t see the movement of enemy forces away from Kyiv,” he said in a televised briefing.

*** ECONOMIC & POLITICAL ***

-Speaking on television after talks between Russian and Ukrainian negotiating teams in Istanbul, Russia’s deputy defence minister, Alexander Fomin, said Moscow had decided to “radically reduce military activity in the direction of Kyiv and Chernihiv” in order to “increase mutual trust” and create the right conditions to sign a peace deal with Ukraine.

-A Russian rocket that struck a regional administration building in the southern Ukrainian port city of Mykolaiv today has left at least seven people dead and 22 injured, Volodymyr Zelenskiy said.

-In the UK, the chief of the defence staff, Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, told the cabinet that Britain’s support was moving to a “new phase” as the Ukrainians sought to retake territory captured by the Russians. The prime minister’s spokesperson said they were looking at “all possible options” to ensure the Ukrainians had the equipment they needed while avoiding any “escalatory effects”.

-Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has said “no one is thinking about using” or “even about [the] idea of using a nuclear weapon” in an interview with PBS on Monday evening. Reporter Ryan Chilcote asked Peskov to clear up the confusion surrounding Russia’s position on a possible nuclear attack after the Russian official previously said that Russia would only use nuclear weapons if its very existence were threatened. “There’s still quite a bit of confusion about Russia’s position. We heard yet another official over the weekend, this time former President Dmitry Medvedev, say that Russia reserves the right to use nuclear weapons if it faces an existential threat, even if the other side has not employed nuclear weapons,” Chilcote said. “So could you please clarify for us what exactly would amount to an existential threat to Russia?”

Peskov replied: "Well, first of all, we have no doubt that all the objectives of our special military operation in Ukraine will be completed. We have no doubt about that. But any outcome of the operation, of course, is not a reason for usage of a nuclear weapon. We have a security concept that very clearly states that only when there is a threat for existence of the state in our country, we can use and we will actually use nuclear weapons to eliminate the threat or the existence of our country.”

Regarding the possible stalemate emerging in Russia’s supply of gas to Europe after Vladimir Putin said he wants payment in rubles, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia is not “going to make a charity out of it”. PBS reporter Ryan Chilcote said it “looks like we have a stalemate here” and asked: “Will Russia turn off the tap? Will it cut off its gas exports to Europe if those countries refuse to pay for that gas in rubles?” Peskov replied: “I don’t know what is going to happen when they reject this possibility.

Peskov described recent sanctions as a war against Russia in trade. Unfortunately, those conditions, they are quite unfriendly. And they are enemy, enemy-like for us. We entered the phase, the phase of a total war. And we in Russia, we will feel ourselves amongst war, because Western European countries, United States, Canada, Australia, they actually — they actually — they are leading war against us in trade, in economy, in seizing our properties, in seizing our funds, in blocking our financial relations. And we have to adapt ourselves to new reality. You have to understand Russia. You have to understand Russia.”

Referencing Russia’s ongoing tension with Nato, Peskov said: "For a couple of decades, we were telling the collective west that we are afraid of your Nato’s moving eastwards. We too are afraid of Nato getting closer to our borders with its military infrastructure. Please take care of that. Don’t push us into the corner. No."

-A group of Russian citizens who fled their country after the invasion of Ukraine and spent a week camped out at the U.S.-Mexico border was quietly admitted to the U.S. in a secret deal with Mexican officials, VICE World News has learned. The group of 35 asylum seekers was whisked away in the predawn hours of March 20 and driven to a part of the border where they wouldn’t be seen: a checkpoint that has been closed to the public for several months.

-Ukrainian officials are worried that radioactive ingredients to make a dirty bomb could have gone missing from a Chernobyl monitoring lab after Russian forces occupied the nuclear site. Initial worries over missing material was reported by Ukraine's Director of Institute for Safety Problems of Nuclear Power Plants (ISPNPP), Anatolii Nosovskyi who reported several raids on surrounding Chernobyl labs. Nosovskyi claimed looters had made off with radioactive isotopes used to calibrate instruments and pieces of radioactive waste that, when mixed with explosives, could make a "dirty bomb". He added that the ISPNPP has a separate area for testing more dangerous materials including "powerful sources of gamma and neutron radiation" used to test devices and store radioactive parts from the Chernobyl meltdown.

-With thousands of troops deployed to Europe in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Navy is adding to its assets in the region. The Defense Department announced Monday that six EA-18G Growlers, with 240 air crew and maintainers, will head to Spangdahlem, Germany, as part of 14,000 troops the U.S. has committed to reassure NATO. The electronic attack aircraft will not be doing any jamming missions, Pentagon spokesman John Kirby told reporters.

-Ukrainian forces have seized back full control of the town of Irpin, a few miles from Kyiv, the local mayor said. The United States cannot confirm who is in control of the city of Irpin, west of Kyiv, a senior US defence official said. The official said Ukrainian forces have retaken the town of Trostyanets from the Russians, and are also actively attempting to seize control of Kherson.

-Video footage purporting to show the torture of Russian prisoners of war is being investigated by the Ukrainian government. The film, which has not been verified, appears to show Ukrainian soldiers removing three hooded Russians from a van before shooting them in the legs.

-Russia is no longer requesting Ukraine be “denazified” and is prepared to let Kyiv join the European Union if it remains military non-aligned as part of ongoing ceasefire negotiations, according to four people briefed on the discussions. Moscow and Kyiv are discussing a pause in hostilities as part of a possible deal that would involve Ukraine abandoning its drive for Nato membership in exchange for security guarantees and the prospect to join the EU, the people said under the condition of anonymity because the matter is not yet finalised. The draft ceasefire document does not contain any discussion of three of Russia’s initial core demands — “denazification”, “demilitarisation”, and legal protection for the Russian language in Ukraine — the people added. Envoys from both sides meet in Istanbul on Tuesday in a fourth round of peace talks designed to end president Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

The concessions on Russia’s side come as its month-long ground offensive has largely stalled as a result of fiercer Ukrainian resistance than expected and Russian operational deficiencies. But Ukraine and its western backers remain sceptical of Putin’s intentions, worrying that the Russian president could be using the talks as a smokescreen to replenish his exhausted forces and plan a fresh offensive. David Arakhamia, head of Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky’s party in parliament and a member of Kyiv’s negotiating team, told the FT the parties were close to agreement on the security guarantees and Ukraine’s EU bid but urged caution about prospects for a breakthrough. “All the issues” have been “on the table since the beginning” of negotiations but “lots of points — like in every single item there are unresolved points”, Arakhamia said.

Ukraine’s foreign minister reiterated today that Ukraine’s most ambitious goal ahead of peace talks with Russia this week is to agree to a ceasefire, reported Reuters.

-US president Joe Biden said he will “make no apologies” after calling for Putin’s removal last week, adding that he was expressing “moral outrage”.

-On Friday, Russia appeared to pivot on its war goals. Suddenly it was no longer talking about denazification or demilitarization, let alone the end of the Ukrainian state. Instead, it stressed that it had reached the end *of the first phase* of fighting, had significantly weakened Ukraine’s military, and from now on would concentrate its forces on liberating the eastern Donbas region it previously held parts of. President Putin, speaking Sunday, congratulated Russian forces fighting in Donbas – and only Donbas. Some are wondering if the upcoming May 9 Russian holiday celebrating their WW2 victory over Nazism will be the ideal date for Moscow to claim that they have repeated the ‘victory’ over Ukraine. One can expect markets to rally on the back of such “peace in our time” dreams.

However, there is reason for pessimism. Russia is fighting on too many fronts, and the possible encirclement of Ukrainian forces in the east was always a good target: but it is still bombing Ukraine’s west. Ukraine says Moscow aims to split the country like North and South Korea – as the breakaway ‘Luhansk republic’ expects to hold a “referendum on independence”. Russia does not want to give up territorial gains outside Donbas and give Ukraine a morale-boosting victory, and it will not give up its land bridge to Crimea. Ukraine will not drop its demands for a *full* Russian withdrawal; and so the West will not be able to drop sanctions - and Russia would still be in a position where escalation would suit it better. Ukrainian President Zelenskiy, begging for more urgently needed weapons, does not seem to see de-escalation. Some Russian foreign policy sources suggest Putin still wants to drag Poland into the crisis to escalate to the NATO level, where a deal might be done. Tellingly, Putin propagandists on Russian TV, while admitting the “special military operation” is not going well, are nonetheless talking about an existential struggle where defeat is unacceptable. Worryingly in this regard, Russia also just reiterated its willingness to use nuclear weapons vs. even an existential conventional threat.

-Apple shares tumbled as much as 2% in U.S. premarket trading following a report the company plans to slash production of its first 5G-capable budget phone by 20%, Nikkei reports, citing unidentified people. Apple's iPhone SE was launched less than three weeks ago and has already encountered demand issues. The company told multiple suppliers to decrease production by about 2-3 million units for the next quarter, citing weaker-than-expected demand.

Besides decreasing demand for iPhone SE, the U.S. tech giant also reduced orders for its AirPods by more than 10 million units for 2022. Counterpoint Research data showed that 2021 AirPods production was 76.8 million, but Nikkei sources cautioned shipments could decline by year's end. Apple has told other suppliers to reduce the output of its flagship iPhone 13 by a couple of million, though sources said this adjustment was purely based on seasonal demand.  Nikkei sources widely say demand woes stem from the Russia-Ukraine conflict. An executive at one Apple supplier told Nikkei: "The war has affected spending at the European markets. ... It is understandable [consumers will] save the money for food and for heating." Counterpoint Research analyst Brady Wang said the smartphone market is set for a correction. "We see the end demand for smartphones in China is quite weak. In addition, the Russia-Ukraine war will likely have spillover effects on the whole European market and consumer demand," Wang said.

-The billionaire Roman Abramovich and a Ukrainian peace negotiator suffered symptoms consistent with poisoning earlier this month, according a source with direct knowledge of the incident. Abramovich was taking part in informal peace negotiations in the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, early in March when he began to feel ill, the source told the Guardian. Ukrainian MP Rustem Umerov was also part of the negotiation, and the men later left Ukraine for Poland, and then flew to Istanbul, where they received medical treatment.

-The State Special Communications Service of Ukraine (SSSCIP Ukraine) reported that Russian forces had launched a cyberattack against Ukrtelecom, Ukraine’s singular telephone company. SSSCIP chairman Yurii Shchyhol confirmed that the cyberattack has been neutralized and said that efforts were underway to resume service.

-The governor of Ukraine’s Rivne region said that an oil depot has been hit by a rocket strike, reports Reuters.

-Russian soldiers who seized the site of the Chernobyl nuclear disaster drove unprotected through a highly toxic zone called the “Red Forest”, kicking up clouds of radioactive dust, Chernobyl workers told Reuters. The two sources said they had witnessed Russian tanks and other armoured vehicles moving through the Red Forest, which is the most radioactively contaminated part of the zone around Chernobyl.

There are Reports that Mariupol has Fallen

-The important southeast city of Mariupol has now been completely taken over by Russian forces, according to its mayor, after weeks of siege and intense bombardment and fighting. Mayor Vadym Boichenko announced Monday that his city is "in the hands of the occupiers".

-Mariupol
Russian flag and DPR flag waving over Azov Nazi HQ
For the first time in Mariupol the Russian anthem sounds

Aloe Blacc - The Theme of Our Times

Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 30-32

View of the entire Ukrainian theater from 30,000 feet. The past 72 hours has seen Ukrainian forces continue to conduct localized counterattacks in the Kyiv area, Sumy Oblast, and around Kharkiv & Izium. Russian forces continue to press in the Donbass & Mariupol.

Kyiv / Chernihiv Strategic Front

Ukrainian forces continue to press counterattacks west of Kyiv in Irpin, Bucha, Vorzel, Borodyanka, Andrivka, and Makariv. East of Kyiv Ukrainian forces have recaptured Luk’yanivka, forcing most of the Russian forces in the area to retreat.

 

Kyiv AO

Kyiv has most likely shifted in importance from a strategic decisive point Russia seeks to seize to a political objective point Russia will contain. Maintaining pressure on Kyiv denies Uk force in the east, a front that holds greater chance for Russian success.

Sumy Strategic Front

Russian forces are unable to ensure the unimpeded flow of supplies and reinforcements throughout the Sumy Oblast. There are numerous unsubstantiated reports that Russian forces may be withdrawing forces from the Sumy area.

 

Sumy AO

It is unknown if these reports indicate a shifting of Russian forces in response to Ukrainian counterattacks, or they constitute a move to drastically alter Russian disposition in the Chernihiv & Sumy Oblasts to reinforce successes or create opportunity on other fronts.

 

Donbas Front Assessment

The primary front of the war - where most remaining coherent regular Ukrainian forces are committed. Russian forces continue to try and advance past southern Izium, but localized Ukrainian counterattacks have been able to contain them to Izium. Further west Ukrainian forces have recaptured the town of Novovorontsovka (SE of Kryvyi Rih).

 

Russian forces continue to press deeper into Mariupol

The Russian forces continue to press deeper into Mariupol. It is possible that the city defenses may soon be bisected by Russian forces advancing from east to west.

The Ukrainian's speak of Mariupol in terms of the siege of Leningrad but it is actually the battle of Berlin. The Russians have put in the Chechen's to deal with what is left of the Azov regiment, which explains why they are fighting so hard. They are almost encircled and there will likely be no quarter given once that pocket is reduced.

 

Hungarian FM Peter Szijjarto Explains Why Weaning Europe Off Russian Energy Anytime Soon is Impossible

Russian Maskirovka - One Month On

Since the Western MSM is mostly reporting military assessments from the Ukrainian general staff, I thought it only fair to point out a few things from the Russian perspective.

The Russians are claiming that there are very few organized, intact Ukrainian military forces capable of receiving and using additional weapons sent from NATO. I don't see operational reports of any Ukrainian actions above battalion level, and most are smaller unit actions, company or even platoon level.

There was a feel good report in the Guardian Sunday about a scrappy unit of about 30 Ukrainian special forces and drone operators drawn from the air reconnaissance unit Aerorozvidka that reportedly 'halted the huge Russian convoy headed for Kyiv'.

These sorts of Western media reports are ridiculous on the surface, and here is why. That 40 mile convoy was a huge target that any functional, competent military force would have utterly consumed. Remember what US forces did to that huge unsupported column escaping Kuwait in 1991? But the Russian column sat in place for over a week. There was no significant destruction rained down on the Russian column from the air. There were no Ukrainian cruise missiles used against it. Those should have been launched (if they existed) and could have caused enormous damage. That did not happen. There also was no massed Ukrainian artillery barrages on the supposedly “stalled” column. More than likely while a few Ukrainian special forces units harassed it, Russian logistical problems account for its sluggish movement. So were are the large Tank and Troop formations of the Ukrainian Army? The ones that should have slammed into the Russian column from the west and destroyed it?

This information comes from Friday’s briefing by the Head of the Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, Colonel General Sergei Rudskoy (Colonel General is equivalent to a three star general in the U.S. Army) who is claiming around 30,000 Ukrainian casualties so far and around 60% losses among all Ukrainian combined armored forces.

He said in his briefing:

-Currently, the Ukrainian air forces and the air defense system have been almost completely destroyed. The naval forces of the country ceased to exist.

-Sixteen main military airfields were defeated, from which combat sorties of the AFU aviation were carried out. Thirty nine storage bases and arsenals were destroyed, which contained up to 70% of all stocks of military equipment, materiel and fuel, as well as more than 1 million 54 thousand tons of ammunition.

-All 24 formations of the Land Forces that existed before the start of the operation suffered significant losses. Ukraine has no organized reserves left.

-Losses are replenished at the expense of mobilized persons and personnel of the territorial defence forces who do not have the necessary training, which increases the risk of large losses.

-At the time of the start of the special military operation, the Armed Forces of Ukraine, together with the National Guard, numbered 260 thousand 200 servicemen. During the month of hostilities, their losses amounted to about 30 thousand people, including more than 14 thousand – irretrievable and about 16 thousand – sanitary.

-Of the 2,416 tanks and other armored fighting vehicles that were in combat on February 24, 1,587 units were destroyed; 636 units out of 1,509 field artillery guns and mortars; 163 out of 535 MLRS; 112 out of 152 aircraft, 75 out of 149 helicopters; 36 Bayraktar TB2 UAVs – 35; 80 out of 148 S-300 and Buk M1 air defence systems; 300 out of 117 radars for various purposes.

If even only half true, the destruction inflicted on the Ukrainians is egregious. If Ukraine still had a viable air force they would be challenging Russian combat aircraft and carrying out airstrikes on Russian positions. I have seen no reports in Western media about such actions.

In cities, such a Mariupol, that are besieged by Russian forces there has been no visible attempt to provide air support, artillery fire or reinforcements. The AZOV battalion left in an ever shrinking perimeter in Mariupol have no way out and are running out of ammunition and food. I have seen estimates that most of the remaining Ukrainian indirect fire units will begin running out of heavy caliber ammunition in a couple of weeks. Most of those captured Russian tanks that you see on social media being towed away by local farmers are most likely abandoned vehicles due to major mechanical problems are won't be much use to the Ukrainians in the short term, especially if the Ukrainians lack trained crews to man them.

Sky News reported on General Rudskoy’s briefing cited above:

Russia’s defense ministry claimed it would now concentrate on the “liberation” of the Donbas region.

    “The main objectives of the first stage of the operation have generally been accomplished,” said Sergei Rudskoi, head of the Russian General Staff’s Main Operational Directorate.

“The combat potential of the armed forces of Ukraine has been considerably reduced, which makes it possible to focus our core efforts on achieving the main goal – the liberation of Donbas.” . . .

Russia has previously pointed to far bigger ambitions but stiff resistance from Ukraine forces, logistical problems and reported low morale may have taken their toll.

Here is what Rudskoy actually said:

With the beginning of a special military operation, air supremacy was won during the first two days.

Offensive actions of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are carried out in various directions.

As a result, Russian troops blocked Kiev, Kharkov, Chernigov, Sumy and Nikolaev. Kherson and most of the Zaporozhye region are under full control.

The public and individual experts are wondering what we are doing in the area of blocked Ukrainian cities.

These actions are carried out with the aim of causing such damage to military infrastructure, equipment, personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the results of which allow not only to shackle their forces and do not give them the opportunity to strengthen their grouping in the Donbass, but also will not allow them to do so until the Russian army completely liberates the territories of the DPR and LPR.

Initially, we did not plan to storm them in order to prevent destruction and minimize losses among personnel and civilians.

And although we do not rule out such a possibility, however, as individual groups complete their tasks, and they are being solved successfully, our forces and means will concentrate on the main thing – the complete liberation of Donbass.

Rudskoy delivered a very pointed warning to NATO as well:

We are closely monitoring the statements of the military and political leadership of individual countries about their intention to supply aircraft and air defense systems to Ukraine. In case of implementation– we will not leave it without attention.

We also hear assurances from NATO leaders about non-interference in the conflict. At the same time, some member states of the North Atlantic Alliance propose to close the airspace over Ukraine. I would like to draw your attention to the fact that the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation will immediately respond accordingly to such attempts.

In order to prevent the restoration of weapons and military equipment of the AFU that have received combat damage, the Russian Armed Forces are disabling repair enterprises, arsenals, storage bases, logistics warehouses with high-precision weapons.

At the moment, 30 key enterprises of the military-industrial complex have been hit by cruise missiles X-101, Kalibr, Iskander, and the Kinzhal aviation complex, which carried out repairs of 68% of weapons and equipment disabled during combat operations.

So its hard to make sense of what is happening, but this does not sound like whipped Russians licking their wounds, as the Western media and social media forums like /r/ukraine/ would have us believe.

Russia/Ukraine War Update - March 28th, 2022

*** MILITARY SITUATION ***

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 27th

 

Russian forces have not abandoned efforts to reconstitute forces northwest of Kyiv to resume major offensive operations, and the commander of Russia’s Eastern Military District (EMD) may be personally commanding the operations. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russia’s 35th Combined Arms Army is rotating damaged units into Belarus and that Russian forces established a command post for all EMD forces operating around Kyiv in the Chernobyl area. Ongoing Russian efforts to replace combat losses in EMD units and deploy additional reinforcements forward are unlikely to enable Russia to successfully resume major operations around Kyiv in the near future. The increasingly static nature of the fighting around Kyiv reflects the incapacity of Russian forces rather than any shift in Russian objectives or efforts at this time.

Ukrainian forces continued to conduct limited counterattacks in several locations, recapturing territory east of Kyiv, in Sumy Oblast, and around Kharkiv in the past 24 hours. Ukrainian counterattacks are likely enabling Ukrainian forces to recapture key terrain and disrupt Russian efforts to resume major offensive operations. Likely escalating Ukrainian partisan operations around Kherson are additionally tying down Russian forces. Russian forces continue to make slow but steady progress in Mariupol, but Russian assaults largely failed elsewhere in the past 24 hours.

The Ukrainian General Staff continued to report Russian difficulties to replace personnel and equipment losses. The General Staff reported on March 27 that Russian forces are increasingly using old and substandard ammunition, leading to a rise in the rate of accidents at Russian arsenals and depots, particularly highlighting the use of old munitions by the 35th Combined Arms Army’s 165th Artillery Brigade, operating northwest of Kyiv. The General Staff additionally stated that Russia has deployed up to nine logistics battalions and up to five “main logistics centers” to Ukraine to solve ongoing supply challenges.

-Russian Eastern Military District (EMD) Commander Colonel-General Alexander Chayko may be personally commanding efforts to regroup Russian forces in Belarus and resume operations to encircle Kyiv from the west. The Kremlin is highly unlikely to have abandoned its efforts to encircle Kyiv but will likely be unable to cohere the combat power necessary to resume major offensive operations in the near future.

-Neither Russian nor Ukrainian forces conducted major operations northwest of Kyiv in the last 24 hours.

-Ukrainian forces counterattacking east of Brovary since March 24 successfully retook territory late on March 26.

-Ukrainian forces conducted limited counterattacks in Sumy Oblast on March 26-27.

-Fighting continued around Izyum in the past 24 hours, with little territory changing hands.

-Russian forces continued steady advances in Mariupol.

-Ukrainian partisans around Kherson continue to tie down Rosgvardia units in the region, likely hindering Russian capabilities to resume offensive operations in the southern direction.

-Russian missiles have hit in different cities around Ukraine. Reportedly, Lutsk, Rivne, Zhytomyr, Kyiv

-The Ukrainian military claimed Russia has withdrawn troops that were surrounding Kyiv after suffering significant losses in its latest operational report.

-According to Ukraine’s general staff of the armed forces, Ukrainian forces continue to restrain Russian troops from taking control of key highways and settlements in the city of Kyiv. A total of 5 enemy attacks were repelled from Donetsk and Luhansk with Ukrainian soldiers destroying 2 tanks, a combat machine infantry and one car, the report reads.

*** ECONOMIC & POLITICAL ***

-US president Joe Biden has denied he is calling for regime change in Russia, after he said during a visit to Poland that Vladimir Putin “cannot remain in power”. When asked by a reporter if he wanted to see the Russian president removed from office, he said “no”. The French president, Emmanuel Macron, had already distanced himself from Biden’s comments, while the UK cabinet minister Nadhim Zahawi distanced the UK government from his remarks.

-Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Russian investigators would look into a video circulating on social media that purported to show Ukrainian forces mistreating captured Russian soldiers. Peskov said the video, which he described as containing “monstrous images”, needed to be legally assessed and for those who took part in what he described as torture to be held responsible. Peskov also said that Joe Biden’s comments that Vladimir Putin could not remain in power were a cause for concern. Reuters reports he said Moscow would continue to closely follow Biden’s statements. Biden made the comments in Warsaw on Saturday, then later said the US does not have a policy of regime change in Russia.

-Russia’s foreign affairs minister Sergei Lavrov appears to have ruled out any direct meetings between Russia’s president Vladimir Putin and Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskiy, saying it would be counter-productive.

-Russia’s foreign minister Sergei Lavrov has said that his nation’s relations with China were at their strongest level ever. China has been one of the countries that has not condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and has been highly critical of western sanctions and the mooted attempt to expel Russia from the G20 group of major economies over it.

-Support from many African leaders and governments for Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine – or at least reluctance to condemn it – has dismayed western officials. At the UN general assembly, on resolution 17 African nations abstained – almost half all abstentions – and one voted against, condemning Russia for its “aggression” and demanding a withdrawal from Ukraine, though a majority of African countries gave it their backing.

-Ukraine has no plans to open any humanitarian corridors to evacuate civilians from besieged cities on Monday because of intelligence reports warning of possible Russian “provocations” along the routes, deputy prime minister Iryna Vereshchuk said this morning, according to reports from Reuters.

-Gazprom, Russia’s energy giant, has issued its daily figures, saying that it continues to ship gas to Europe via Ukraine – giving a volume of 109.5m cubic metres.

-Speaking more than a month after Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, Zelenskiy said no peace deal would be possible without a ceasefire and troop withdrawals.He ruled out trying to recapture all Russian-held territory by force, saying it would lead to a third world war, and said he wanted to reach a “compromise” over the eastern Donbass region, held by Russian-backed forces since 2014. Zelenskiy said Ukraine refused to discuss certain other Russian demands, such as the demilitarisation of the country.

-Ukraine’s military intelligence chief Gen Kyrylo Budanov said earlier that he believed that Putin wanted to split Ukraine into two, emulating the postwar division between North and South Korea.

-French president Emmanuel Macron has distanced himself from comments made by the US president Joe Biden about Russia’s Vladimir Putin. In a speech in Warsaw, Poland, last night, Biden said Putin is a “butcher” and said “this man cannot remain in power”. However, the White House later clarified that the US was not calling for regime change. But Macron told broadcaster France 3: “I would not use those words.” He added that “everything must be done to stop the situation from escalating” if there is to be any hope of stopping Russia’s war in Ukraine.

-A UK cabinet minister has distanced the government from Joe Biden’s call that Russia’s Vladimir Putin “cannot remain in power” amid criticism that the comment could bolster the Kremlin. Nadhim Zahawi, the education secretary, said it was “for the Russian people to decide how they are governed” after the unscripted remark from Biden at a speech in Poland, which the White House later said was not a call for regime change.

-The US has no strategy of regime change for Russia, secretary of state Antony Blinken told reporters on Sunday after president Joe Biden said Russian Vladimir Putin “cannot remain in power”.

-Turkey and other nations must still talk to Russia to help end the war in Ukraine, Turkey’s presidential spokesman said on Sunday, adding that Kyiv needed more support to defend itself. Nato member Turkey has good relations with both Russia and Ukraine and has sought to mediate in the month-long conflict, Reuters reported. “If everybody burns bridges with Russia then who is going to talk to them at the end of the day,” Ibrahim Kalin told the Doha international forum.

-The Russian-backed self-proclaimed Luhansk People’s Republic in eastern Ukraine could hold a referendum soon on joining Russia, the rebel region’s news outlet cited local leader Leonid Pasechnik as saying on Sunday.

- Online schooling to resume in Ukrainian capital Monday, says Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko, adding “It will be more adapted to current conditions. And using different educational platforms for students."