The Putin Interviews

 From the the 2017 series by Oliver Stone

Russia/Ukraine War Update - April 30th, 2022

*** MILITARY SITUATION ***

Ukrainian TVD, Day 58-64

The past week has seen Russian forces initiate an integrated offensive along the Siverskyi Donets Line & Severodonetsk Salient. Assaults resume against the Azovstal Metallurgical Zone; UKR forces execute several spoiling attacks. Russian forces will likely move SE from Barvinkove to Druzhkivka just south of Kramatorsk to cut the remaining GLOCs from the west and the north-south link to Avdiivka. The push north from Avdiivka is likely meant to link-up with Russian forces in the Kramatorsk.

Russia needs a battlefield success(es) for any hope of drawing out concessions from Ukraine. Severodonetsk must be taken to claim victory in Luhansk. Therefore, Russia will go hard for Severodonetsk and the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk area.

Odesa-Kherson OD

Oleksandrivka to the west of Kherson is reported to be under Russian control. Russian forces launch attacks in northern Kherson Oblast toward Kryvyi Rih. Ukrainian forces claim to have recaptured several towns along the M14 HWY toward Kherson.  Physically, moving from the periphery inward is problematic as complex highway interchanges, road congestion, innumerable subterranean and surface passageway access makes controlling movement difficult without a massive engineering effort to reshape the city itself.

Mariupol

Russian forces renewed attacks against the Azovstal Metallurgical Zone over the weekend (23-24 April), most likely to secure the M14 HWY running through the industrial Zone. Operations also continue against pockets of resistance outside the Azovstal area. The siege of Mariupol illustrates how difficult it is for contemporary military forces to exert physical and/or virtual control of urban spaces. Virtually, cell phone saturation, social media, and cloud services render virtual isolation improbable.  It is unlikely that Russian troops will storm Azovstal itself but will focus attacks on reducing the size of the defensive perimeter of the Steel Plant. There are indications that the north Azovstal may have been captured by Russian forces.

"Situation in Mariupol Azovstal growing more dire. Marine commander Serhiy Volyna says ~600 wounded troops in serious condition, w/o meds, in unsanitary conditions; 100s of civilians including many kids, people with disabilities underground. They’re running out of food and water."

Zaporizhzhia OD

Russian forces have made numerous small gains over the last several days along the Ukrainian defensive line running from Vasylivka, through Huliaipole, to Velyka Novosilka. These attacks may potentially threaten Zaporizhzhia if a breakthrough is made. An assault on Zaporizhzhia, though not immediately likely, may well be an eventual action Russian forces will take. As the administrative center of the Zaporizhzhia Oblast it is an important political objective to hold to claim legitimacy of a propped-up proxy state. So far Russian actions in this area appear consistent with my earlier assessment of the Zaporizhzhia OD being a disruption zone where the intent is to fix Ukrainian forces to ensure success of operations in the Severodonetsk-Donestsk OD.

Severodonetsk-Donetsk OD

The Russians have expanded their initial limited probing / recon in force attacks of 19-22 April into a general dispersed offensive. Russian troops are pushing methodically on generally mutual supporting axes north and west of Slovyansk-Kramatorsk. In the Severodoentsk Salient it appears Russian forces are positioning to encircle the main urban sprawl of Severodonetsk-Lysychansk from the NE and SE while reducing Ukrainian defenses through massed artillery bombardment. Further south on the Donetsk-Horlivka region, expect Russian offensive action to continue in Marlinka & Avdiivka as Russian & proxy militia forces attempt to break through the Ukrainian prepared defenses along the line of contact.

Kharkiv OD

The Ukrainian General Staff estimates at least 7x BTGs of 6th CAA & Baltic / Northern Fleet Naval Infantry blocking Kharkiv and screening Russian movements east of the Siverskyi Donets. Ukrainian forces inch closer to Kozacha Lopan, threatening Russian control of the E105 HWY from Ruska Lozova to Belgorod. Russian loss of the E105 HWY will place Belgorod under increased threat of Ukrainian long-range strike attacks.

Six M777 155mm towed howitzers that Australia announced is sending to Ukraine already arrived at the Rzeszow-Jasionka Airport in southeastern Poland, delivered by C-17 transport aircraft.

-Russia intends to create a proxy state in the south, with a referendum planned in Kherson possibly in the first week of May. Ongoing partisan activity & civil resistance may prevent this from occurring. Recent Russian rhetoric suggests a resumption of the Norossiya project.

-There are an estimate 1,000 civilians in Azovstal, Russian forces continue to target Ukrainian civil & civic leaders throughout southern Ukraine for arrest to disrupt civil resistance to Russian occupation. Ukrainian partisan activity remains high.

-Russian forces made limited advances west of Severodonetsk but remain stalled south of Izyum. Ukrainian forces in eastern Ukraine are likely successfully conducting a maneuver defense rather than holding static positions, redeploying mechanized reserves to resist attempted Russian advances. Concentrated Russian artillery is enabling minor Russian advances, but Ukrainian positions remain strong. Limited Ukrainian counterattacks around Kharkiv city may additionally force Russian forces to redeploy units intended for the Izyum axis to hold these positions.

-There has been heavy fighting in the cities of Lysychansk and Severodonetsk, the ministry (Defence) said, with Russian troops attempting to advance south from Izyum in an apparent pincer movement aimed at encircling Ukrainian forces.

-VKS air sorties strike multiple railway hubs in western Ukraine with PGMs to slow the distribution of western military aid further east. PGM attacks also target Odesa. It is estimate Russia has expended 1,300 PGMs in Ukraine.

-A fighter pilot known as the Ghost of Kyiv died in an air battle last month after allegedly shooting down more than 40 Russian aircraft, it can be revealed. Major Stepan Tarabalka, 29, a father of one, was killed when the MiG-29 he was flying was shot down on March 13 while fighting “overwhelming” enemy forces, according to local reports.

-On April 25 the Russians targeted a host of railway hubs in western Ukraine in a systematic fashion. Five were hit within an hour in the morning and at least one more later on. The Russians did not target rail itself, but transformer substations that keep rail lines electrified.

The Russian military, using long-range precision weapons, destroyed six traction substations at the railway stations of Ukraine, “through which foreign weapons and military equipment are supplied to the Ukrainian group of troops in the Donbass.” This was announced on Monday by the representative of the Russian Ministry of Defense Igor Konashenkov. The echelons that transport goods for the Armed Forces of Ukraine are pulled mainly by electric locomotives, noted the military analyst Yuri Podolyaka. Therefore, the decommissioning of traction power plants is of great strategic importance. “If the Russian command continues to strike at Ukrainian substations, this could be a much more effective solution than hitting railway bridges,” Podolyaka said.

I am not so sure that de-electrifying Ukrainian lines is that valuable. De-electrification would mean that Ukraine would have to fall back on using diesel locomotives alone. And according to the Russian commentator Sergei Sigachev its fleet of diesel locomotives is rather small. (Apparently 1627 electric vs 301 diesel.) So if complete de-electrification could be achieved and maintained that would doubtlessly have serious consequences for Ukraine’s industry and economy. (The main users of rail.) However military trains are always going to be given highest priority so with 301 diesel engines around it might be entirely possible to keep moving military cargoes around without much fuss. It sounds like in order to interrupt high-priority transports the rail lines would have to be cut, not just de-electrified.

-POLITICO, in a surprising act of journalism, provides a gripping first hand account of what it is like to be on the receiving end of Russian artillery and aerial bombardment in the Donbass. It ain’t pretty:

Eighty miles north of the city, First Lt. Ivan Skuratovsky, serving in the 25th Airborne Brigade, told POLITICO that help needs to come immediately. “The situation is very bad, [Russian forces] are using scorched- earth tactics,” the 31-year-old married father of two said via text. “They simply destroy everything with artillery, shelling day and night,” he said via text. He fears that if reinforcements in the form of manpower and heavy weaponry — particularly air support — don’t arrive in the next few days, his troops could find themselves in the same position as those in Mariupol.

Skuratovsky described his soldiers’ situation as “very desperate.”

“I don’t know how much strength we will have,” he said, adding that the troops under his command around the city of Avdiivka, near Donetsk, have gone without rest since the start of the war. At least 13 of them have been wounded in recent weeks, he said, and they are running dangerously low on ammunition, reduced to rationing bullets. The day before, he told POLITICO his soldiers were being bombarded with Russian howitzers, mortars and multiple-launch rocket systems “at the same time.” Just hours earlier, he said, they had been attacked by two Su-25 warplanes, “and our day became hell.” Skuratovsky had a message for the United States and other NATO countries: “I would like to tell them that grenade launchers are good, but against airstrikes and heavy artillery we will not be able to hold out for long. People can no longer endure daily bombardments. We need air support now. We need drones.”

-Anders Åslund, a pro-Ukrainian reporter says Ukraine has experienced setbacks in the past few days. A senior Ukrainian official announced yesterday that Russian troops had taken part of the Kharkiv region. Yesterday, Russia announced that it has captured the entire Kherson region. No Ukrainian advances. "Russia is increasing the pace of offensive in Ukraine in all directions", – Speaker of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry Oleksandr Motuzyanyk. Apparently, even the Armed Forces of Ukraine are tired of the lulling lies of Arestovich.

-German reporter Julian Röpcke says yesterday's Ukrainian army statement reveals the frontline in Donetsk oblast is 15 km further N-W than I previously had it. Feel free to say, "this is old, we knew all this". Fact is, the Ukr general staff never acknowledged territorial losses N-W of Staromlynivka.

*** ECONOMIC & POLITICAL ***

-Vladimir Putin could announce the mass mobilisation of Russians on 9 May, Ben Wallace, the UK defence secretary, has said. Wallace said that Putin could declare that “we are now at war with the world’s Nazis and we need to mass mobilise the Russian people”. Russian President Vladimir Putin could declare World War 3 in just two days' time, according to the UK defence secretary. Ben Wallace said that the despot will "probably" attempt to "mobilise the Russian people" amid his failing "special military operation". Russian troops first crossed the border into Ukraine on February 24, claiming they wanted to "denazify" the country. Putin has also threatened to use nuclear weapons against western powers if they get in his way, with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov saying the threat of nuclear war "is serious".

-Stocks bled out through the session Friday as the NDX (-4.5%) led the losses (SPX -3.5%, R2K -2.8%) with earnings and month-end the culprit. On the one hand, the 14% drop in Amazon (AMZN) post-earnings, it's biggest daily fall since July 2006, set the tone despite the strong Apple (AAPL) report, -3.6%. But month-end selling took the reins as the session developed. Traders noted the monthly JPMorgan Asset Management macro hedge largely behind the USD 7bln+ MoC order that saw Spooz print lows of 4119, exceeding the March low at 4129.50, and opening up the late Feb contract low of 4094.25. Meanwhile, Treasuries (10yr +7bps at 2.93%) bear-flattened again on the back of the concerning Employment Costs Index jump and better long-end support for month-end. The lofty Q1 +1.4% ECI affirmed concerns around lingering inflation and justification for the Fed's hawkishness/50bps moves. The Dollar saw heavy selling to see the index hit a low of 102.80 but recovered above the 103 level as the risk tone deteriorated further. Oil prices were lower, reversing their strength into the settlement. The crescendo of pessimism was highlighted by Bespoke Investment, "There's only been 4 other times since 1971 that the Nasdaq was down more than 2.5% for 4 or more straight weeks. The longest streak was 5." The Nasdaq has now posted its worst monthly performance since the 2008 crisis. All eyes to Powell next Wednesday to make good on rate hikes.

Treasuries bear-flattened again Friday on the back of concerning employment costs data and better long-end support for month-end. 2s +7.2bps at 2.719%, 3s +6.4bps at 2.880%, 5s +5.9bps at 2.941%, 7s +5.4bps at 2.956%, 10s +4.5bps at 2.908%, 20s +4.4bps at 3.170%, 30s +3.7bps at 2.966%. 5yr BEI -3.1bps at 3.372%, 10yr BEI -1.8bps at 3.034%, 30yr BEI -2.8bps at 2.580%.

Oil benchmarks were lower Friday after reversing their strength into the close as risk assets more broadly fell through the session. Headlines seemingly weren't driving oil prices, with the benchmarks roughly tracking the macro sentiment. WTI (M2) and Brent (N2) hit highs of 107.99/bbl and 110.00/bbl, respectively, in the NY morning before sliding into the futures settlement. The benchmarks are still firmer on the week, however, and sit comfortably in their post-Ukraine invasion trading ranges. Note that June Brent futures expire Friday, so some final book-squaring could have been at play in the tape action.

-The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index increased by 6.6% for the year ended in March, the Commerce Department reported Friday. It was the highest rate since the period ended January 1982, outpacing the figure from February. Energy costs soared in the first quarter on the back of the war in Ukraine, rising 33.9% for the year ended in March. Food prices rose 9.2% over the same period. Stripping out food and energy costs, the PCE inflation measure rose 5.2%, a slightly slower pace than the 5.3% recorded in February. This index is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, but the slight tick lower is unlikely to change the Fed’s policy path.

-The United Kingdom has confirmed that it’s sending Brimstone precision-guided missiles to Ukraine, as part of a steadily expanding supply of weapons the country is providing to help resist the Russian invasion, which is now in its 64th day. Interestingly, accounts from British officials and media are currently at odds as to whether the missiles being supplied are intended as anti-ship weapons, for attacking ground targets, or perhaps even both. The Brimstone, produced by pan-European missile manufacturer MBDA, is available in air-launched and ground-launched versions and has also been offered in ship-based form. What we do know is that a British government official, James Heappey, the U.K.’s armed forces minister, has confirmed that “hundreds” of Brimstone missiles will be sent to Ukraine, where the first examples should arrive in the “next few weeks.”

  

-In his latest address, Zelenskiy thanked the US for its support via a revived second-world-war-era lend-lease program. He also thanked countries that have resumed diplomatic operations in Kyiv, saying: “Such gestures, together with strong defensive, financial and political support from the free world, mean that the need to end the war is becoming more and more obvious to Russia.”

-Polish heavy weapons deliveries to Ukraine:

- 230+ T-72M(1) MBTs
- 40 BMP-1 IFVs
- 20+ 2S1 Goździk SPGs
- 20+ BM-21 Grad MRLs
- WB Electronics FlyEye reconnaissance UAVs
- 100 R-73 air-to-air missiles

-Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory show the goals of Moscow’s special operation should be achieved as quickly as possible. Moreover, he added Russia does not consider itself at war with NATO, and such a development would raise risks of nuclear war and cannot be allowed, adding Moldovans should be worried about their future, as they are being dragged into NATO. On talks, Lavrov noted Moscow and Kyiv could have already achieved major results, but Kyiv is altering its position under orders from US and Britain. Meanwhile, Ukraine President Zelenskiy stated there is a high risk that peace talks with Russia will end and blames the actions of Russian troops during the war. On sanctions, the EU is reportedly likely to approve a phased embargo on Russia as early as next week; the package will also include sanctions against Sberbank and further measures on high profile Russians, according to NYT (confirming other recent reporting). Lastly, on the ground, heavy fighting is continuing in eastern Ukraine, where Russian forces are trying to take the entire Donbas region, where a Senior US official believes Russia is behind on that operation.

-Moscow has confirmed it carried out an airstrike on Kyiv during a visit by the UN secretary general, António Guterres. The defence ministry said two “high-precision, long-range air-based weapons” had destroyed the production buildings of the Artyom missile and space enterprise in the Ukrainian capital on Thursday night.

-Two British aid workers who have reportedly been captured by Russian forces in Ukraine have been named. Presidium Network, a UK-based NGO that says it carries out evacuations of families and individuals from war zones, identified Paul Urey and Dylan Healy as the captured men. The Foreign Office said it was seeking further information about claims the two men who went to Ukraine to provide humanitarian aid have been captured.

-The US has begun training Ukrainian armed forces at US sites located outside of Ukraine. A Pentagon spokesperson said that there are three sites outside of the US where Ukrainians are receiving training, including one in Germany.

-Solomon Islands Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare has lashed out at Australia, as the fallout from a newly-signed security agreement between his country and China continues.

-Ukraine acknowledged heavy losses from Russia’s attack in the east as Moscow’s forces, having failed to seize the capital, redoubled their efforts to fully capture the eastern Donbas region.

-European Union countries are likely to approve a phased embargo on Russian oil as early as next week, according to EU officials.

-North Korea is gearing up for its potential first nuclear weapons test since 2017, FT and other news agencies are reporting, which analysts say appears confirmed in a series of new satellite images. "The commercial satellite images were collected this week and analyzed by experts from the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington," according to CSIS experts cited in FT. "They revealed the construction of buildings, movement of lumber and an increase in equipment and supplies immediately outside a new entrance to the Punggye-ri nuclear test site in the country’s north-east." The study further finds that "Current satellite imagery indicates that preparations are well under way and should not be discounted as insignificant activity."

-The US does not believe the threat of Russia using nuclear weapons despite a recent escalation in Moscow’s rhetoric, a senior US defence official said.  Russia is days behind its schedule on its military operations in Ukraine’s Donbas region, a US defence official said, adding that the US believes that Russia’s fighting with Ukraine in the Donbas region will be a potential “knife fight”.

-The US speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi, says the House will vote to pass Joe Biden’s $33bn request for aid for Ukraine “as soon as possible”. Speaking at her weekly press briefing on Friday morning, the House speaker framed the administration’s request as one of a number of “emergencies” Congress needed to address urgently.

-Peace advocates reacted to Thursday's request by U.S. President Joe Biden for $33 billion in additional aid to Ukraine by warning against what they called a dangerous escalation and by accusing the administration of misplaced priorities. Biden is asking Congress for additional funding for war-ravaged Ukraine, including more than $20 billion in "security and military assistance," $8.5 billion in economic aid, and $3 billion in "humanitarian assistance." "It's not cheap. But caving to aggression is going to be more costly if we allow it to happen," said Biden. "We either back the Ukrainian people as they defend their country, or we stand by as the Russians continue their atrocities and aggression in Ukraine every day." The president's appeal for additional funds comes on top of the $4.6 billion in security assistance the U.S. has given Ukraine since January 2021, including $3.7 billion since Russian forces invaded the country in February. Medea Benjamin, co-founder of the women-led peace group CodePink, called Biden's request "a down payment on World War III."

-The first shipments of Russian coal and crude oil, paid for in yuan, will arrive in China in April and May, respectively. Chinese state media used the opportunity to denigrate the United States, claiming that the international status of the U.S. dollar is “at risk.” However, financial expert Albert Song believes that it will not affect the U.S. dollar’s status as the leading global reserve currency. Fenwei Energy Information Service Co., China’s leading information and service provider to the coal and coke industries, revealed that several Chinese companies purchased Russian coal in Chinese currency in March, and the first shipment would be made in April. This is also the first shipment of Russian commodities paid in yuan to arrive in China after Russia was sanctioned by Western countries. Fenwei did not specify on which date the shipment was expected to arrive.

In addition to coal, Chinese buyers also used yuan to purchase Russian crude oil. The first ESPO (Eastern Siberia Pacific Ocean) crude oil will be delivered in May, according to a commentary published in early April on Cngold.org, a Chinese online media outlet about investing. Citing the purchases from Fenwei, the article stated that payments in U.S. dollars will become less popular.

-Soaring prices for industrial fertilizer have forced one of Brazil's largest farmers to initiate plans to reduce nutrient spreading on fields by at least a quarter in 2022-23, according to Bloomberg. SLC Agricola SA, which manages soybeans, corn, and cotton fields in an area larger than the state of Delaware, will reduce the use of fertilizer by 20% and 25%, Chief Executive Officer Aurelio Pavinato said. Pavinato's planned reduction of fertilizer comes as prices have soared to record highs due to shortages stemming from the Russian invasion of Ukraine. He said fewer nutrients won't necessarily affect crop production yet.

-U.S. spring-wheat futures are nearing the highest level since 2008, as the Northern U.S. Plains are plagued with devastating floods that prevent farmers from planting in the high-producing crop region. Blizzards, winter storms, high winds, and extreme flooding battered the Dakotas and stalled plantings in April, raising concerns about shrinking crop yields as prevent plant dates for North Dakota are at the end of May. The most-active spring wheat futures contract increased more than a 1% to $12.02 a bushel, nearing March's peak and closing in on the highest level since 2008. Prices have more than doubled since the virus pandemic low. $4.90.

-India is one of those G-20 members not bowing down to US pressure to halt purchases of Russian energy products. The South Asian country's power grid is dominated by fossil fuels, particularly coal and crude, and has come under severe stress as one of the worst heatwaves in years causes widespread blackouts. Fossil fuels power about 75% of India's power grid, and the rest is renewable energy. Soaring temperatures mean increasing power output as cooling demand rises. The government has forced power cuts for factories in various provinces to mitigate the grid's collapse. Nearly 42% of the grid comprises the industrial sector, followed by residential at 24% and agriculture at 18%.

-US Hotel Room Rates Hit Record High Prices Despite Occupancy Remaining Below Pre-Pandemic Levels. The national average daily rate for a room in March rose to $146.61, marking its highest level for any month on record, according to a new writeup by BisNow. STR, who provides premium data benchmarking, analytics and marketplace insights for the global hospitality industry, reported this week that the average daily rate (ADR) rose 10.9% from pre-pandemic figures (March 2022 vs. March 2019).

Russia/Ukraine War Update - April 29th, 2022

 *** MILITARY SITUATION ***

Russian offensive operations in eastern Ukraine made minor advances on April 28. Russian forces attacking southwest from Izyum likely seek to bypass Ukrainian defenses on the direct road to Slovyansk. Russian forces continued shelling and minor attacks along the line of contact in eastern Ukraine but did not secure any gains in the past 24 hours. Additional Russian reinforcements continue to deploy to Belgorod to support the Izyum advance. Ukrainian defenders in Mariupol’s Azovstal Steel Plant continue to hold out against heavy Russian artillery and aerial bombardment, including the likely use of multi-ton “bunker-buster” bombs against a Ukrainian field hospital.

Ukrainian news outlet Defense Express reported on April 27 that Russian Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov will take personal command of the Russian offensive in the Izyum direction.[1] Citing unspecified Ukrainian military sources, Defense Express stated that Gerasimov is already in-theater and will command the offensive “at the operational and tactical level” and claimed the Russian military failed to create a single command structure under Southern Military District Commander Alexander Dvornikov. ISW cannot independently confirm this report. However, ISW previously assessed that Dvornikov’s appointment as overall commander in Ukraine would not solve Russia’s command and control challenges and likely strain his span of control.[2] If confirmed, the appointment of Russia’s senior general officer to command tactical operations indicates both the importance of the Izyum drive to Russia’s war in Ukraine and the breakdown in the Russian military’s normal chain of command.

-Russian strategic bombers likely targeted a Ukrainian field hospital in the Azovstal Steel Plant. The remaining Ukrainian defenders are likely running low on supplies.

-Russian attacks southwest of Izyum likely seek to outflank Ukrainian defenses on the direct road to Slovyansk and have made tactical gains in the last 24 hours.

-Russian forces continued tactical ground attacks and shelling along the entire line of contact in eastern Ukraine but did not secure any major advances.

-Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) Head Denis Pushilin stated that the DNR will postpone local Victory Day celebrations planned for May 9 until “the complete victory and the expansion of the DNR" to control Donetsk Oblast, though the Kremlin remains likely to attempt to claim some sort of victory on May 9.

-Russian forces conducted several locally successful attacks from Kherson toward Mykolaiv.

-Russian and proxy forces continued to mobilize in Transnistria and set conditions for a false flag attack.

*** ECONOMIC & POLITICAL ***

-The US House of Representatives has approved a bill that would remove several constraints on sending weapons to Ukraine amid the ongoing Russian offensive. Adopted by the Senate earlier this month, the “Ukraine Democracy Defense Lend-Lease Act” revives the program Washington used to send military equipment to belligerents in WWII while officially staying neutral. The final vote on Thursday afternoon was 417-10, with three members not voting. All of the Democrats voted in favor, while all of the ten members opposed were Republicans.

Introduced by Senator John Cornyn (R-Texas), the bill was passed by the Senate on April 6, but the Democrat-dominated House adjourned for a two-week Easter recess before taking it up. It authorizes the White House to “lend or lease defense articles” to Ukraine or any “Eastern European countries impacted by the Russian Federation’s invasion of Ukraine to help bolster those countries' defense capabilities and protect their civilian populations from potential invasion or ongoing aggression.”  Cornyn’s bill does not create a new program, but rather makes it easier for President Joe Biden to send weapons to Kiev by suspending limitations imposed by two existing laws, one of which caps the length of the aid at five years.

However, the whole thing is conditioned on Ukraine having to pay for the “return of and reimbursement and repayment for defense articles loaned or leased” to it. Kiev’s ability to make such payments is questionable, since the Ukrainian government is currently asking the US and the EU for $7 billion per month just to keep paying salaries and pensions. The lend-lease bill is separate from the ongoing US effort to send Kiev weapons from the Pentagon stockpiles. Biden has already blown through almost $3.5 billion authorized by Congress for the purpose, and is seeking more funding.

-Russia attacked western Kyiv with two cruise missiles during a visit by the UN secretary general, António Guterres, to the Ukrainian capital. Two loud explosions rocked Kyiv on Thursday evening after Guterres visited the site of massacres and mass graves on the city’s outskirts. Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, said the strikes happened “immediately after” his talks with the UN chief. Ten were injured in the blast, which hit the central Shevchenkivskyi district, and three people were hospitalised, according to Ukraine’s state emergency service. A 25-storey residential building was partially destroyed.

-As Russia’s invasion of Ukraine hits its 64th day, a former NATO commander urged the West to prepare for a “worst case” scenario: war with Russia. In response to comments made by the U.K. foreign secretary over the West's needing to “double down” on its support for Ukraine, former NATO commander Richard Shirreff told BBC Radio 4’s “Today” program it was “absolutely the right approach” and that “it’s got to be followed through with significant resources, and it’s got to be done right across the alliance as a whole.” Shirreff, formerly a NATO deputy strategic commander for Europe, went on to caution that the Kremlin is likely to respond to this aggressively and that the West should be prepared for a worst-case scenario. “The worst case is war with Russia,” he said. “By gearing itself up for the worst case, it is most likely to deter [Russian President Vladimir] Putin because ultimately Putin respects strength.”

-The world order created after the Second World War and the Cold War isn’t working anymore, so the West needs “a global NATO” to pursue geopolitics anew, UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss argued, in a major foreign policy speech on Wednesday. Truss also urged the US-led bloc to send more “heavy weapons, tanks” and airplanes to Ukraine, and said China would face the same treatment as Russia if it doesn’t “play by the rules.”

-The European Union will consider it as a violation of sanctions if European energy companies comply with Moscow’s requirement to open a payment account in roubles with Gazprombank, EU officials warned. The EU “cannot accept” that payments in euros for Russian gas are considered completed by Moscow only after they are converted into roubles, an official said.

-UK to send 8,000 soldiers to eastern Europe on expanded exercises. About 8,000 British army troops will take part in exercises across eastern Europe to combat Russian aggression in one of the largest deployments since the cold war. Dozens of tanks will be deployed to countries ranging from Finland to North Macedonia this summer under plans that have been enhanced since Russia invaded Ukraine.

-On Thursday, President Biden asked Congress for an additional $33 billion for military, economic, and humanitarian assistance for Ukraine as the US is preparing to back Kyiv in its war against Moscow for the long term. According to the White House, the massive request includes $20.4 billion in military aid, $8.5 billion in economic aid, and $3 billion in humanitarian assistance. The funds are meant to last through the 2022 fiscal year, which ends on September 30. The military aid will mostly be for Ukraine, but some will go towards arming the US’s Eastern European allies. [To replace the weapons they gave Ukraine from their arsenals.] The White House said the aid will keep “additional artillery, armored vehicles, anti-armor and anti-air capabilities flowing into Ukraine uninterrupted.” In March, Biden signed a spending bill into law that included $13.6 billion in the military and economic aid for Ukraine, but that amount has almost been exhausted. Since Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, the US has sent about $3.7 billion worth of weapons into the war zone.

-The effects of pandemic lockdowns, related supply chain strains, and conflict in Ukraine are wreaking havoc on the world's agricultural system. Readers have heard the likes of the UN warning that Middle Eastern countries are at "breaking points" as food prices hit record highs, and as of last week, the Rockefeller Foundation began the countdown (about six months) to a "massive, immediate food crisis." Now, Goya Foods CEO Bob Unanue has issued a similar warning: "We are on the precipice of a global food crisis."  In a Wednesday interview, Unanue told Fox Business's Maria Bartiromo, "Americans will have to tighten their belts and consume less," in response to her question about a potential food shortage crisis. Bartiromo then asked a series of questions, such as "Do you think things will get worse?" and "Do you think food prices will go even higher later this year?"  He warned about an imbalance in world food production, indicating "farmers are paying double for fertilizer, they're planting less and yields will be less." Unanue then spoke about "30% of the global wheat production in Ukraine goes unplanted." He said the "global food supply chain is a very tight balance. If we interrupt the food production, we will have a food crisis that will send prices through the roof."

-After throughout the whole month consistently rejecting a proposed European Union ban on Russian oil, but while also walking a delicate tightrope of opposing Putin's demand of payments in rubles for Russian energy, Germany is now ready to pull the trigger on an embargo. It's another major Berlin U-turn happening in tandem with the decision to send heavy weapons to Ukraine. The Wall Street Journal is citing Berlin government officials who say "Germany is now ready to stop buying Russian oil." The WSJ underscores that this "clears the way" for a wider EU ban on Russian oil imports, given that Germany's resistance was the chief holdout to imposing an embargo before this point. Further the report indicates that an embargo now seen as "imminent" but it remains that no target date has been set yet, or at least hasn't been disclosed publicly. While events earlier in the week made clear that this was coming, preparing markets, oil began surging on the news.

Germany appears to have lifted its objection based on prior negotiations to implement a phased-in Russian oil embargo, similar to the phased approach regarding the coal ban. Additionally, other countries particularly in eastern Europe have lately appeared willing to step up in taking the pressure off Germany supply - for example Poland says it's ready to supply a German refinery via Gdansk which is owned by Rosneft. "Should Rosneft refuse to process non-Russian oil imports, Germany could put the refinery under state management under laws protecting strategic assets," the report says. But the elephant in the room is that some eastern European countries are actually close to 100% reliant on Russian oil, or with many approaching total dependency.

-Rescuers have found two more bodies after a fire at a Russian aerospace defence research institute broke out last week, bringing the total number of deaths to 22, Tass news agency cited local emergency services as saying on Thursday. One person is still believed to be missing, the Russian state outlet said. The institute is in the city of Tver, about 160km (100 miles) northwest of Moscow. Authorities have opened a criminal investigation after media reports that an electrical fault caused the blaze.

-The UN general assembly will vote on 11 May on a country to replace Russia on the world organisation’s leading human rights body after its suspension over allegations of rights violations by Russian soldiers in Ukraine. Assembly spokeswoman Paulina Kubiak said the Czech Republic was the only candidate for the seat on the 47-member human rights council.

-The Kremlin said the “pumping” of western arms supplies to Ukraine posed a threat to the security of the European continent. On Wednesday, the UK foreign secretary, Liz Truss, said countries opposed to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine must “ramp up” military production to help Ukraine, including by supplying heavy weapons, tanks and planes.

-In the U.S., underground energy storage facilities containing about 100 million tons of oil have long existed. This is a little more than 730 million barrels. This volume will be enough for American consumers for a month and a half. Approximately the same amount of “black gold” is contained in European hydrocarbon warehouses. Russia cannot boast of similar volumes yet – the lion’s share of production is traditionally sent for export by our country, and domestic consumption is ensured by an increase in production at fields constantly included in the energy system. The imposition of a European moratorium on the purchase of “black gold” from our country threatens to break the long-established structure:Europeans will have to find alternative suppliers of raw materials, and Russia will need to agree on an increase in exports to countries that have not joined the economic sanctions against Moscow.

-Moldova’s deputy prime minister, Nicu Popescu, said the country was facing “a very dangerous new moment” as unnamed forces were seeking to stoke tensions after a series of explosions in the breakaway region of Transnistria this week. Popescu said his government had seen “a dangerous deterioration of the situation” in recent days amid attacks in the breakaway region.

-Efforts are under way to get emergency contraception into Ukrainian hospitals as quickly as possible, as reports of rape after the Russian invasion continue to rise. About 25,000 packets of the medication, also known as the morning-after pill, have been sent by International Planned Parenthood Federation (IPPF).

-Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak, has thanked Germany after lawmakers voted overwhelmingly in favour of providing Kyiv with “heavy weapons and complex systems”. The Bundestag vote represents a historic shift in policy for Germany — after the government held off for weeks on sending heavy equipment.

-Finland will not pay for Russian gas in roubles despite Russia’s request for European countries to do so, the Finnish minister in charge of European affairs, Tytti Tuppurainen, said. Reuters cited Tuppurainen as telling reporters that Finland would seek to end its use of all Russian fossil fuel as soon as possible

-Biden to propose using assets seized from Russian oligarchs to compensate Ukraine. The US president, Joe Biden, is expected to ask Congress for billions of dollars in additional US spending to support Ukraine’s military as well as new legal authorities to siphon assets from Russian oligarchs to pay for the war effort.

-Lietuvos Gelezinkeliai (Lithuanian Railways, LTG) said on Thursday it is planning to lay off around 2,000 of its 9,000-plus employees, with around a quarter of the state-owned group’s managerial staff at various levels set to leave. The company said in a press release that 6 million euros will be allocated for severance payments to employees. The company has said earlier that it may lose some 150 million euros in revenue this year as freight volumes are forecast to halve, compared to last year, to around 26.5 million tons.

-India has asked state-run energy companies to evaluate the possibility of acquiring oil major BP’s stake in sanctions-hit Russian firm Rosneft, sources told Reuters on Thursday. BP had earlier announced it was abandoning its 19.75% stake in the Russian company. Sources familiar with the matter said that the Indian oil ministry last week conveyed its intent to ONGC Videsh (OVL), Indian Oil, Bharat Petro Resources, Hindustan Petroleum’s subsidiary Prize Petroleum, Oil India and GAIL (India). The ministry also asked OVL, the overseas investment arm of Oil and Natural Gas, to consider buying a 30% stake held by US supermajor ExxonMobil in the Sakhalin 1 project in Russia’s Far East. OVL already holds a 20% stake in the project.

Russia/Ukraine War Update - April 28th, 2022

*** MILITARY SITUATION ***

Russian forces made minor but steady advances both from Izyum and in continued assaults along the line of contact in eastern Ukraine on April 27. Russian forces took several small towns directly west of Izyum in the past 24 hours. While this line of advance takes Russian forces away from their main objective of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts, they likely intend to outflank Ukrainian defensive positions on the highways to Barvinkove and Slovyansk. Russian forces made several small advances in eastern Ukraine; Russia’s increasing concentration of artillery assets is likely enabling these tactical advances. Russian forces are advancing methodically in several sectors but have achieved no notable breakthroughs. The capability of Russian forces to encircle large groups of Ukrainian forces remains in doubt.

The Kremlin continued to prepare for a likely false-flag missile attack against the Moldovan territory of Transnistria, which is illegally occupied by Russian forces. Russian proxies in Transnistria falsely claimed Ukrainian forces are preparing to attack Transnistria, and Ukrainian intelligence reported Russian forces are preparing to conduct a missile strike on Transnistria and blame Ukraine. Russian and Transnistrian forces also increased their readiness for possible operations in the last 24 hours. Russia may intend to involve Transnistria in the war in Ukraine to utilize Transnistria’s (limited) reserve forces or to launch attacks and shell Ukraine from Transnistrian territory. The Kremlin may alternatively seek to destabilize Moldova itself to raise tensions in Moldova and neighboring Romania and put additional pressure on NATO, possibly seeking to reduce Western military support to Ukraine either by diverting NATO forces to Romania or threatening a wider escalation.

Russian forces are stepping up “filtration measures” in occupied territories and abducting Ukrainian citizens, likely for use in future prisoner exchanges. Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on April 27 that Russian forces are conducting large-scale “filtration measures” in Kharkiv, Zaporizhia, Kherson, Mykolaiv, Luhansk, and Donetsk Oblasts.[1] The “filtration” targets men of military age, former military and law enforcement personnel, and pro-Ukrainian activists for interrogation, torture, and possible execution. The GUR reported Russian forces are additionally shipping Ukrainian hostages to Crimea to “replenish the exchange fund,” seeking to exchange Ukrainian civilians for Russian military prisoners in future prisoner swaps. The GUR additionally speculated that Russian forces may be preparing to use Ukrainian civilians to portray Prisoners of War in May 9th Victory Day celebrations, noting that Russian forces conducted similar propaganda efforts in Donetsk in 2014.

Ukrainian forces likely conducted drone or possibly missile strikes on Russian logistics centers in Belgorod and Voronezh on April 27. Russian sources and social media reported multiple explosions early on April 27, which Ukrainian Presidential Advisor Mikhail Podolyak later euphemistically confirmed were Ukrainian strikes, stating Russian cities cannot “sit out” the invasion of Ukraine and “the disarmament of the Belgorod-Voronezh warehouses is a natural process.”[2] Ukrainian forces will likely conduct further cross-border strikes to disrupt Russian logistics, which the Kremlin will likely falsely frame as an escalation or somehow a war crime.

-Concentrated artillery is likely enabling limited Russian advances in eastern Ukraine, though Russian forces continue to struggle to break through prepared Ukrainian defenses.

-Russian forces funneled additional reinforcements and tactical missile units into the Izyum front and made minor advances. Russian forces are likely attempting to bypass Ukrainian forces on the road to Barvinkove by advancing directly west before pivoting southwards in the coming days.

-Heavy Russian bombardment and continued assaults failed to make headway against Ukrainian defenders in Mariupol’s Azovstal plant, even as Russian forces reportedly prepared to stage a press tour in the occupied areas of the city on April 28.

-Russian forces around Kherson are likely preparing for a renewed push to capture the entirety of Kherson Oblast in the coming days but Ukrainian counterattacks continue to disrupt Russian operations in the area.

-Russian occupation forces continued preparations to announce the creation of a Russian proxy “Kherson People’s Republic” (KNR) amid widespread Ukrainian resistance.

-The Kremlin may be preparing to either bring Transnistria into the war in Ukraine or destabilize Moldova itself to put additional pressure on NATO.

*** ECONOMIC & POLITICAL ***

-The total losses inflicted upon Ukraine from the war have reached $600 billion, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said. Russia considers gas and 'any trade' as a weapon, Zelenskiy says. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy also addressed what he called Russia’s “energy blackmail” against Europe in his nightly national address.

-Canadian lawmakers have voted unanimously to call Russia’s attacks in Ukraine a “genocide”, with members of parliament saying there was “ample evidence of systemic and massive war crimes against humanity” being committed by Moscow.

-A supplemental budget request that includes Ukraine aid could be sent to the Congress as soon as Thursday, the White House said on Wednesday. The plan will cover military, humanitarian and economic assistance for Ukraine, White House spokesperson Jen Psaki told reporters.

-The unavoidable truth looming over Europe’s response to the invasion of Ukraine is that Russian gas heats the continent’s homes and powers its industries. While European leaders have vowed to wean themselves off Kremlin-controlled supplies, both of gas and oil, the reality is that this is very hard to do in short order. There will be at least one more cold winter to come before major energy-hungry economies that rely heavily on Russia, such as Germany and Italy, can tap other sources.

-Russia has warned other EU customers may be cut off from Russian natural gas supplies if they refuse to pay in roubles. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov’s comments came after Russia halted gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria, a move that European leaders denounced as “blackmail”, which the Kremlin later denied. Poland’s prime minister, Mateusz Morawiecki, described Russia’s move as “a direct attack” on Poland.

-Russia has nearly doubled its revenues from selling fossil fuels to the EU during the two months of war in Ukraine, benefiting from soaring prices even as volumes have been reduced, Guardian reporter Fiona Harvey writes for us today. Russia has received about €62bn from exports of oil, gas and coal in the two months since the invasion began. For the EU, imports were about €44bn for the past two months, compared with about €140bn for the whole of last year, or roughly €12bn a month.

-Uniper, Germany’s top importer of Russian gas, will transfer payments for Russian gas to a Russian bank and no longer to a Europe-based bank, newspaper Rheinische Post is reporting. “The plan is to make our payments in euros to an account in Russia,” the daily paper cited a Uniper spokesperson as saying. Even though Russia has demanded rouble payments for its gas, the payments system it has proposed foresees the use of accounts at Gazprombank, which would convert payments made in euros or dollars into roubles.

-Russia has warned other EU customers may be cut off from Russian natural gas supplies if they refuse to pay in roubles. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov’s comments came after Russia halted gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria, a move that European leaders denounced as “blackmail”, which the Kremlin later denied. Poland’s prime minister, Mateusz Morawiecki, described Russia’s move as “a direct attack” on Poland.

-Countries opposed to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine must double down on their support for Kyiv, including the supply of heavy weapons, tanks and aeroplanes, British foreign secretary Liz Truss has said.

-The rouble soared to a more than two-year high against the euro in Moscow trade on Wednesday, Reuters reports. Russia halted gas supplies to Bulgaria and Poland for rejecting its demand for payment in roubles on Wednesday. By 2:18pm GMT, the rouble had gained 1.8% to trade at 75.43 versus the euro , its strongest since early March 2020. It was 1.1% stronger against the dollar at 72.75 .

-The Kremlin on Tuesday reiterated some accusations which had been advanced earlier by President Vladimir Putin in the days leading up to the Feb.24 invasion of Ukraine, charging that the Kiev government is developing nuclear weapons with the support of the United States. The nuclear allegations came this time from Secretary of the Russian Security Council Nikolai Patrushev, who said according to Fox, citing state agencies, "The need for demilitarization is due to the fact that Ukraine, saturated with weapons, poses a threat to Russia, including from the point of view of the development and use of nuclear, chemical and biological weapons." The words were issued the same day that the Pentagon slammed the growing 'nuclear rhetoric' out of Russia as "very dangerous and unhelpful" - in reference to Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov's Tuesday remarks that said the threat of nuclear confrontation with the West "is real". "The danger is serious," Lavrov had said in a Russian media interview. "It is real. It should not be underestimated." This has led to further tit-for-tat accusations between Moscow and Kiev, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky giving a fresh speech that urged international powers to take 'global control' over Russia's thousands of nukes.

-The US government is providing $670m in food assistance to combat food insecurity due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the US government announced today. The money will come from the agriculture department and the US Agency for International Development (USAID).

-US secretary of state Antony Blinken told Congress that the US is working on reopening its embassy in Ukraine. “I think this will play out over the next few weeks,” he said.

-The Kremlin is planning to hold “referendums” in Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine about joining Russia, according to the Latvia-based news outlet Meduza

-Reuters is reporting that a giant steel plant in Kryvyi Rih, central Ukraine’s largest city, is slowly starting up again after shutting down at the start of the Russian invasion.

-Two American volunteers fighting in Ukraine were reportedly wounded by artillery fire near the city of Orikhiv in the Zaporizhzhia region. US army veterans Manus McCaffrey and Paul Gray were working together as a team targeting Russian tanks with Javelin anti-tank systems when they were injured, according to reports.

-A report from Microsoft says that state-supported Russian hackers have conducted “relentless and destructive” cyberattacks in Ukraine, destroying the data of governmental and infrastructure organizations. Microsoft said that it has observed nearly 40 attacks, “targeting hundreds of systems”.

-The UK is “digging deep” into its inventories, including heavy weapons, tanks and aeroplanes, to defend Ukraine and other countries threatened by Russia, Truss added. “Some argue we shouldn’t provide heavy weapons for fear of provoking something worse. But my view, is that inaction would be the greatest provocation,” she said. Truss singled out China, demanding it “play by the rules”. “China is not impervious. They will not continue to rise if they do not play by the rules. China needs trade with the G7. We represent around half of the global economy. And we have choices. We have shown with Russia the kind of choices that we’re prepared to make when international rules are violated,” she said.

-A former head of the Polish army has accused Boris Johnson of “tempting evil” by revealing that Ukrainian soldiers were being trained in Poland in how to use British anti-aircraft missiles before returning with them to Ukraine. Gen Waldemar Skrzypczak complained that a loose-lipped PM had revealed too much to the Russians and that his remarks risked the safety of the soldiers involved.

-Palm oil futures jumped 10% to a new record-high as Indonesia expanded its cooking oil export ban to include crude palm oil to ensure domestic supplies were stable, according to Bloomberg. Indonesia, the world's biggest cooking oil shipper, initially said the temporary export ban would only apply to refined, bleached, and deodorized palm olein. However, Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Airlangga Hartarto said the ban would be expanded to crude palm oil, RBD palm oil, and used cooking oil. The new export ban begins Thursday.  The export ban is a form of food protectionism that will exacerbate the global food crisis. Indonesia's decision to add palm oil and various forms of cooking oil to a temporary export ban is roiling the global $50 billion palm oil market. China, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and India are the top importers of Indonesia's palm olein.

Indonesia, the world's biggest cooking oil shipper, initially said the temporary export ban would only apply to refined, bleached, and deodorized palm olein. However, Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Airlangga Hartarto said the ban would be expanded to crude palm oil, RBD palm oil, and used cooking oil. The new export ban begins Thursday.

-Belarus has moved to make attempted acts of terrorism punishable by the death penalty after activists tried to sabotage parts of the railway network to make it harder for Russia to deploy forces into Ukraine for its invasion. The Belarusian lower house of parliament approved the change to the criminal code, which now needs backing from the upper house and Belarusian leader, Alexander Lukashenko, before entering force.

-More than 4,000 applications have been filed to sponsor Ukrainians seeking to come to the US within 48 hours of the Biden administration launching ‘Uniting for Ukraine,’ a streamlined process for those fleeing war-torn Ukraine, a USCIS spokesperson told CNN.

-A former head of the Polish army has accused Boris Johnson of “tempting evil” by revealing that Ukrainian soldiers were being trained in Poland in how to use British anti-aircraft missiles before returning with them to Ukraine. Gen Waldemar Skrzypczak complained that a loose-lipped PM had revealed too much to the Russians and that his remarks risked the safety of the soldiers involved.

-The interior ministry of Moldova’s breakaway region of Transnistria issued a statement claiming it came under attack from Ukraine. It said drones were spotted and shots were fired near Kolbasna, which it claims contains one of the largest ammunition dumps in Europe.

-Two American volunteers fighting in Ukraine were reportedly wounded by artillery fire near the city of Orikhiv in the Zaporizhzhia region. US army veterans Manus McCaffrey and Paul Gray were working together as a team targeting Russian tanks with Javelin anti-tank systems when they were injured, according to reports.

-The European Commission has proposed suspending import duties on all Ukrainian products to help the country’s economy during the war with Russia. The proposed one-year suspension, which would need to be approved by the European Parliament and its 27 member states, comes a day after Britain announced it was dropping all tariffs on Ukrainian goods.

-Russia’s foreign ministry announced sanctions on 287 members of Britain’s House of Commons, accusing them of “whipping up Russophobic hysteria”.

-The arms that Lithuania can provide to Ukraine have practically dried up. The country might soon need to choose between continuing its support of Ukraine and maintaining its own defence capabilities, authorities say. Ukraine has provided a list of equipment that different countries have and could send to Ukraine, according to Lithuanian Defence Minister Arvydas Anušauskas. Some have heavy weapons, while others have ammunition or spare parts for repairing equipment. “Lithuania may not have much in the way of heavy weapons, but we do have some artillery capability. We have handed over to Ukraine heavy mortars along with ammunition,” Anušauskas told LRT TV. But Laurynas Kasčiūnas, chairman of the parliamentary Committee on National Security and Defence (NSDK), says that Lithuania has almost exhausted its military resources for supporting Ukraine.

-One day after Russia halted natgas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria due to "nonpayment in rubles", confirming that the country is willing to go ahead with its bluff and shut down supplies to "unfriendly" nations and sending European nat gas prices soaring, Bloomberg reports citing a person close to Russian gas giant Gazprom, that already Europe's fake united front is cracking as four European gas buyers have already paid for supplies in rubles as Russia demanded even as further cutoffs if others refuse the Kremlin’s requirement aren’t likely until the second half of May, when the next payments are due. While it was unclear which are the four companies violating EU directives and paying directly in rubles, according to Reuters Germany' Uniper and Austrian OMV are among the companies that have folded to Kremlin' demands.

Pro-Russian EU member Hungary, meanwhile, has struck a deal to pay into a euro-denominated account with Gazprombank, which in turn will deposit the amount in roubles to Gazprom Export, foreign minister Peter Szijjarto said in a video posted to Facebook. Its next payment is due on May 22, he said. Slovakia has reached the same agreement, he added as more of Europe realizes that it is impossible to live without Russian energy sources. Separately, to facilitate their compliance with Russian demands (and ostensibly in breach of European sanctions), ten European companies have already opened the accounts at Gazprombank needed to meet President Vladimir Putin’s payment demands, the person said, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss confidential matters.

-For the second day in a row, explosions rocked the separatist region of Trans-Dniester in Moldova, knocking out two powerful radio antennas close to the Ukrainian border and further heightening fears of a broader conflict erupting across Europe. Over the past few days, multiple attacks and explosions have been reported in the breakaway Transnistria region of Moldova that borders Ukraine. Transnistria has been a de facto independent state since 1992 and hosts about 1,500 Russian troops on a "peacekeeping" mission. On Monday, several explosions that were said to be caused by rocket-propelled grenades reportedly hit Transnistria’s Ministry of State Security in the capital Tiraspol. On Tuesday, the territory’s Security Council said a "terrorist attack" hit a military unit near Tiraspol.

-Russia’s defence ministry warned of an immediate “proportional response” if Britain continues its “direct provocation” of the Kyiv regime, after the UK armed forces minister, James Heappey, described Ukrainian strikes on Russian soil that hit supplies and disrupt logistics as “completely legitimate”.

-On Sunday, retired U.S. general and former top NATO commander Gen. Philip Breedlove told The Times of London: "So what could the West do? Well, right now there are no Russian troops west of the Dnieper River. So why don’t we put Nato troops into western Ukraine to carry out humanitarian missions and to set up a forward arms supply base?" The escalation of NATO boots on the ground inside Ukraine would make NATO a direct participant in the war, dramatically increase the likelihood of Russian attacks on NATO personnel and facilities, and raise the risk of a nuclear conflict. Breedlove, whom The Times notes is “advising the Biden administration on Ukraine,” also works as a consultant for the weapons industry, a fact which The Times did not disclose.

-Australia will send six M777 howitzers and ammunition to Ukraine as part of a $26.7m package in its response to “Russia’s brutal, unrelenting and illegal invasion” a statement from prime minister Scott Morrison and defence minster Peter Dutton said on Wednesday.

-Canada will also ramp up its military aid to Ukraine with aims to send eight armoured vehicles manufactured by Roshel “as quickly as possible”, minister of defence Anita Anand announced. Last week, Canada delivered M777 howitzers, associated ammunition, and Carl Gustaf weapons to Ukrainian Forces, Anand added.

-The U.S. Army plans to launch a swarm of up to 30 small drones networked into a swarm later this month over the Utah desert as part of an international exercise. Deployed from an advanced echelon of a dual air-assault mission by helicopter-borne troops from the U.S. Army and allied participants, the swarm will be the largest group of interactive air-launched effects (ALEs) the Army has ever tested. A mix of Area-I's small Air-Launched, Tube-Integrated, Unmanned System 600 (ALTIUS 600) and Raytheon-built Coyote drones will be launched from a variety of aircraft and ground vehicles at the Army’s 2022 Experimental Demonstration Gateway Exercise (EDGE 22) that runs from April 25 to May 12 at Dugway Proving Ground near Salt Lake City, Utah.

-On Tuesday journalist Glenn Greenwald warned, "Whatever your views on the moral dimensions of this war, it's hard to deny this is the most dangerous moment in US foreign policy in two decades. Every week, US/NATO involvement in the war intensifies, as Russia explicitly warns of nuclear war. For what?" Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on Monday in his most alarming comments yet on the Ukraine war warned there is now "considerable" risk of armed conflict spreading beyond Ukraine's borders. He blasted NATO's ramped up arms shipments to Kiev as part of its "proxy war" against Moscow, warning further that the possibility of a lead-up to nuclear war "should not be underestimated." "The risks now are considerable," Lavrov said of the possibility for nuclear conflict, according to a Russian foreign ministry transcript. "The danger is serious, real. And we must not underestimate it," he added. "NATO, in essence, is engaged in a war with Russia through a proxy and is arming that proxy. War means war." This kind of maximalist talk out of Moscow of the worst-case scenario appears to have completely undeterred Washington or its allies. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on the same day promised Ukraine's government to "keep moving heaven and earth" to ensure its Ukrainian military has whatever it needs to take on the invading Russian forces.

-Drone giant DJI Technology Co said it will temporarily suspend business in Russia and Ukraine to ensure its products are not used in combat, making it the first major Chinese firm to halt sales to Russia since Moscow invaded Ukraine in February.

-Kazakhstan may declare a prominent Russian television host persona non grata after he said the central Asian nation could meet the same fate as Ukraine if it did not side decisively with Russia, a Kazakh official said on Wednesday.

Russia/Ukraine War Update - April 27th, 2022

*** MILITARY SITUATION ***

RusUkrainian Theater of War, Day 55-57

The past 72 hrs. have seen the Kremlin declare “victory” in Mariupol, with Ukrainian resistance continuing in the Azovstal area. Russia keeps up pressure in the Severodonetsk Salient with only marginal gains

Russian forces have adopted a sounder pattern of operational movement in eastern Ukraine, at least along the line from Izyum to Rubizhne. Russian troops are pushing down multiple roughly parallel roads within supporting distance of one another, allowing them to bring more combat power to bear than their previous practice had supported. Russian troops on this line are making better progress than any other Russian advances in this phase of the war. They are pushing from Izyum southwest toward Barvinkove and southeast toward Slovyansk. They are also pushing several columns west and south of Rubizhne, likely intending to encircle it and complete its capture. The Russian advances even in this area are proceeding methodically rather than rapidly, however, and it is not clear how far they will be able to drive or whether they will be able to encircle Ukrainian forces in large numbers.

Russian forces on the Izyum axis likely benefit from the absence of prepared Ukrainian defensive positions against attacks from the Kharkiv direction toward Donbas. Ukraine has prepared to defend the line of contact with Russian-occupied Donbas since 2014, and Russian troops continue to struggle to penetrate those prepared defenses—as shown by repeated Russian efforts to take Avdiivka, just north of Donetsk City, or to advance through Popasna, just beyond the original line of contact.

Russian troops continued to attack Ukrainian defenders in Mariupol, including in the Azovstal Plant, despite Russian President Vladimir Putin’s claims that there is no more fighting in the city. Ukrainian forces likely still hold important positions beyond the plant itself, and Russian forces continue to fight outside the plant, bomb the plant, and assault positions near the plant. Putin’s order not to chase Ukrainian defenders into the tunnels and catacombs of the facility evidently did not preclude continued efforts to secure at least the entire perimeter of the plant and likely also the important M14 highway that runs along it to the north and northwest.

Russia is staging false-flag attacks in Transnistria, Moldova, likely setting conditions for further actions on that front. The two motorized rifle battalions Russia has illegally maintained in Transnistria since the end of the Cold War are not likely sufficient to mount a credible attack on Odesa by themselves, nor are the Russians likely to be able to reinforce them enough to allow them to do so. They could support more limited attacks to the northwest of Odesa, possibly causing panic and creating psychological effects to benefit Russian operations in the south of Ukraine.

Russia may also seek to destabilize Moldova itself, however. Comments by the head of the Donetsk People’s Republic and other Russian officials and proxies raise the possibility that Putin might recognize the self-styled Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic (PMR) in Transnistria as he recognized the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics. The PMR could then ask for additional Russian protection, and Putin could attempt to send some additional forces or capabilities to Transnistria. Any such activities would greatly raise tensions and fears in Moldova and neighboring Romania, putting additional pressure on NATO, possibly giving Putin a cheap “win,” and distracting from Russia’s slog in eastern Ukraine.

Continued indications that Russian forces intend to hold referenda to establish “people’s republics” in occupied areas of southern Ukraine raise the possibility that Putin intends to unveil an array of new “independent” “people’s republics” as part of a Victory Day celebration. The forecast cone is wide, and there is as yet no solid basis to assess one path as much more likely than another. But the false-flag attacks and Russian and Russian proxy reactions to them are alarming, and it behooves NATO and the West to consider the most dangerous courses of action and prepare to meet them.

-A Russian missile has hit a strategic bridge linking the southern Odesa region with neighbouring Romania, Ukrainian officials said. The strike on the bridge, across the Dniester estuary near the city of Odesa, has cut off the railway connection to areas of the Odesa region west of the estuary and Romania, the head of Ukraine’s railways said.

-According to Russian military spokesman Major General Igor Konashenkov, in the afternoon, “high-precision long-range air-launched missiles” hit a logistics terminal located on a military airfield near Odessa, where “a large batch of foreign weapons received from the United States and European countries was stored. Ukraine is extremely low on fuel to the point that secret trains have been discovered delivering enormous emergency fuel supplies from Moldova.

*** ECONOMIC & POLITICAL ***

-The military spending of all nations combined set a new record in 2021, exceeding the $2 trillion mark for the first time ever, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) revealed in a report published on Monday. Governments spent a total of $2.113 trillion on weapons last year. The top spenders were the US, China, India, the UK, and Russia, accounting for 62% of the total sum. According to the researchers, 2021 was the seventh consecutive year in which global military expenditures had grown, despite the strains placed on economies by the Covid-19 pandemic.

While US defense spending slid by 1.4% compared to 2020, Washington remained the absolute global leader, having lavished some $801 billion last year. The SIPRI report also points out that US funding for military research and development – while having dropped by 1.2% last year – still rose by 24% between 2012 and 2021. That suggests that the US is “focusing more on next-generation technologies,” according to Alexandra Marksteiner, a researcher with the SIPRI’s Military Expenditure and Arms Production Programme. “The US Government has repeatedly stressed the need to preserve the US military’s technological edge over strategic competitors,” she said in a statement.
Biden promises eco-friendly US military READ MORE: Biden promises eco-friendly US military

With an estimated $293 billion spent on weapons, China holds second place on the SIPRI’s list. According to the Sweden-based institute, Beijing’s military spending has increased for 27 years in a row, with a 4.7% rise in 2021.

India comes in third with $76.6 billion spent last year, up 0.9% from 2020. The report notes that New Delhi has been working to decrease its dependence on imported arms of late, with 64% of its military outlays having gone to local arms manufacturers.

The UK spent $68.4 billion on defense in 2021, a 3% increase over the previous year.

Russia’s military outlays rose by 2.9% to reach $65.9 billion in 2021. Moscow thus spent 4.1% of its GDP on defense.

-French President Emmanuel Macron was among the first foreign leaders to congratulate Joe Biden on his contested victory over Donald Trump back in November 2020, but he apparently wasn’t around to take the call when his US counterpart tried to return the favor after his re-election victory on Sunday night. “I tried to talk to Emmanuel Macron last night,” Biden told reporters on Monday. “I spoke to his staff, and he was at the Eiffel Tower having a good time. And I’m going to be talking to him today.”

-The US and UK have given Sweden “concrete promises” of military protection between its application to join NATO and its formal acceptance into the alliance, Aftonbladet reported on Monday. Although neutral since the 19th century, Sweden is reportedly preparing to abandon its policy of non-alignment and join the US-led military bloc this year. Recent reports suggest that Sweden and Finland are preparing to file applications to join the NATO alliance this summer. Should Sweden apply for membership, the UK and US have promised to provide military protection between application and membership, after which the alliance’s mutual defense clause would come into effect, Aftonbladet reported, citing multiple government sources. One source said that while NATO members are forbidden from expressing any formal guarantees of protection to non-members, they would still be able to take informal measures like stationing troops in Sweden, hosting military exercises, and offering “political support.” “In practice, Sweden will be treated as a full-fledged NATO member shortly after a declaration of interest,” the newspaper stated, claiming that the UK has specifically offered to increase its naval presence in Swedish waters during the application process.

-Finland and Sweden joining NATO is “very dangerous charlatanry” and amounts to provoking Russia, Croatian President Zoran Milanovic said on Tuesday. Zagreb will refuse to ratify their membership until the US and EU pressure the neighboring Bosnia-Herzegovina into guaranteeing ethnic Croats their basic voting rights, Milanovic added. “As far as I’m concerned, they can get into NATO, they can poke the rabid bear in the eye with a pen,” Milanovic told reporters in Zagreb on Tuesday.

-Ukrainian forces may use UK-supplied weapons to attack targets on Russian soil, British Armed Forces Minister James Heappey said on Tuesday. Moscow has cautioned the West against escalating what it sees as a Russia-NATO “proxy war” in Ukraine, after a series of attacks on its territory. “It is completely legitimate for Ukraine to be targeting in Russia's depth in order to disrupt the logistics that if they weren't disrupted would directly contribute to death and carnage on Ukrainian soil,” Heappey told Times Radio. “There are lots of countries around the world that operate kit that they have imported from other countries; when those bits of kit are used we tend not to blame the country that manufactured it, you blame the country that fired it,” he added.

-Poland Said Would Stop Russian Gas Imports by Year-End, 

Gazprom Said ‘Why Not Today?’

Russia will cut off the gas to Poland on Wednesday in a major escalation in the standoff between Moscow and Europe over energy supplies and the war in Ukraine. Moscow appears to be making good on a threat to halt gas supplies to countries that refuse President Vladimir Putin’s new demand to pay for the crucial fuel in rubles. [It’s not really in rubles but Poland is too proud even for that.] Europe has said that doing so would breach sanctions and strengthen Russia’s hand. Poland has been particularly vociferous in its criticism of Russia and has refused to comply with the new terms. Poland’s main gas supplier PGNiG said it’s been told that all flows will stop from Wednesday. Minutes earlier, Russian gas giant Gazprom PJSC issued a warning that Poland must pay up for its gas supplies — on Tuesday and in the Russian currency.

“I can confirm we’ve received such threats from Gazprom which are linked among other things to the means of payment,” Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki told reporters in Berlin. “Poland is sticking to the arrangements and maybe Russia will try to punish Poland” by cutting deliveries. European gas prices surged as much as 17% as traders calculated the risk of other European countries being hit next. The threat of cutoffs has been looming for weeks, but there was an indication last week that the European Union was suggesting a potential way out of the standoff. Late April and May is when the first payments in rubles fall due — and European governments and energy company executives are in many cases still trying to figure out how best to respond. Europe is hugely dependent on Russian gas, and has so far mostly shielded energy from sanctions. “The possible cut may set a precedent for additional curtailments following Russia’s request for payment in rubles,” Patricio Alvarez, an analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence said.

-The propaganda continues to portray the war in Ukraine as that of an unprovoked Goliath out to decimate an innocent David unless we in the US and NATO contribute massive amounts of military equipment to Ukraine to defeat Russia. As is always the case with propaganda, this version of events is manipulated to bring an emotional response to the benefit of special interests. One group of special interests profiting massively on the war is the US military-industrial complex. Raytheon CEO Greg Hayes recently told a meeting of shareholders that, "Everything that ‘s being shipped into Ukraine today, of course, is coming out of stockpiles, either at DOD or from our NATO allies, and that’s all great news. Eventually we’ll have to replenish it and we will see a benefit to the business."

He wasn’t lying. Raytheon, along with Lockheed Martin and countless other weapons manufacturers are enjoying a windfall they have not seen in years. The US has committed more than three billion dollars in military aid to Ukraine. They call it aid, but it is actually corporate welfare: Washington sending billions to arms manufacturers for weapons sent overseas. By many accounts these shipments of weapons like the Javelin anti-tank missile (jointly manufactured by Raytheon and Lockheed Martin) are getting blown up as soon as they arrive in Ukraine. This doesn’t bother Raytheon at all. The more weapons blown up by Russia in Ukraine, the more new orders come from the Pentagon.

Former Warsaw Pact countries now members of NATO are in on the scam as well. They’ve discovered how to dispose of their 30-year-old Soviet-made weapons and receive modern replacements from the US and other western NATO countries. While many who sympathize with Ukraine are cheering, this multi-billion dollar weapons package will make little difference. As former US Marine intelligence officer Scott Ritter said last week:
 

"I can say with absolute certainty that even if this aid makes it to the battlefield, it will have zero impact on the battle. And Joe Biden knows it."

What we do see is that Russians are capturing modern US and NATO weapons by the ton and even using them to kill more Ukrainians. Also, what kinds of opportunities will be provided to terrorists, with thousands of tons of deadly high-tech weapons floating around Europe? Washington has admitted that it has no way of tracking the weapons it is sending to Ukraine and no way to keep them out of the hands of the bad guys. The only way out of a hole is to stop digging. Don’t expect that any time soon. War is too profitable.

-Poland has offered military aid to Ukraine worth a total of PLN 7 billion (EUR 1.5 billion), Mateusz Morawiecki, the prime minister, has said. “The heroism of Ukrainians has let them stand up against Russian criminals, but they would be unable to fight back without a huge amount of weaponry, ammunition, adequate anti-aircraft and anti-armour equipment, including heavy equipment,” Morawiecki said at a press conference in Warsaw on Saturday. “We’re trying to help our neighbours with all of this,” he said. According to Morawiecki, Poland has sent to Ukraine weapons whose replacement value has reached PLN 7 billion (EUR 1.5 billion) so that “they can defend themselves for us, because that’s where the front line of struggle with the totalitarian Russian regime lies today.”

-Britain’s Foreign Minister Elizabeth Truss is expected to call on allies of Ukraine to “ramp up” military production including of planes and tanks, the AFP is reporting after reviewing a preview of a speech to be delivered on Wednesday. In her speech, called the new approach, Truss says the UK’s new approach “will be based on three areas: military strength, economic security and deeper global alliances”. “We cannot be complacent - the fate of Ukraine remains in the balance”, her speech reads. Russia’s victory will have “terrible consequences across the globe,” Truss is expected to say. “We must be prepared for the long haul and double down on our support for Ukraine. “Heavy weapons, tanks, aeroplanes - digging deep into our inventories, ramping up production. We need to do all of this.”

-British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace told Parliament on Monday that London will send Ukraine “a small number” of armored vehicles equipped to launch Starstreak anti-air missiles. Wallace said that Ukrainian personnel visited a British military training area before these vehicles were selected. “We shall be gifting a small number of armored vehicles fitted with launchers for those anti-air missiles,” Wallace told lawmakers, referring to the Starstreak missiles already pledged to Kiev by Prime Minister Boris Johnson as part of a £100 million ($130 million) arms package earlier this month.

-A senior US defense official told reporters on Tuesday that the Department of Defense established a control center in Germany to assist in the distribution of US military aid to Ukraine, CNN is reporting. The control center, called the EUCOM Control Center of Ukraine or ECCU is based within the US European Command area of responsibility in Stuttgart, Germany. It’s run by a two-star military general and works with the international donor coordination center or IDCC.

-On Tuesday, in response to the World Trade Organization's (WTO) Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala's request for Brazil to increase more food exports, Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro asked the WTO not to sever trade flows with Russia. He said there are 27 Russian vessels hauling fertilizer to Brazil. The South American country imports more than 85% of its fertilizer demand. Russia is its top supplier, and Belarus provides 28% of the total. Restraining fertilizer consumption would be absolutely disastrous, crush harvest yields, and threaten the world's food security. The country is a top exporter of coffee, sugar, soybeans, manioc, rice, maize, cotton, edible beans, and wheat. 

-Russia’s defence ministry warned of an immediate “proportional response” if Britain continues its “direct provocation” of the Kyiv regime, after the UK armed forces minister, James Heappey, described Ukrainian strikes on Russian soil that hit supplies and disrupt logistics as “completely legitimate”.

-Boris Johnson said that Facebook has agreed to take down a video of Aiden Aslin, a British prisoner of war being held in Donetsk by Russian forces. The video is believed to be Russian propaganda, and shows Aslin being accused of serving as a mercenary.

-Moldova’s president, Maia Sandu, said a series of incidents in the Russian-backed separatist Transnistria region were an attempt by pro-war factions to increase tensions. Sandu convened a meeting of her security council after local authorities said two antennas carrying Russian radio broadcasts had been blown up. Ukraine’s foreign ministry condemned what it said were Russian attempts to drag the region into its war against Ukraine.

-A Russian minister refused to rule out Moldova’s breakaway region Transnistria being drawn into the Ukraine war, in a potential escalation of the conflict to another European country. The deputy foreign minister, Andrey Rudenko, said Moscow “was concerned” over the string of recent explosions in Transnistria, saying Russia “would like to avoid a scenario” in which Transnistria would be dragged into the war, deepening fears that the Russian-backed region could soon be drawn into the conflict in Ukraine. Speaking to journalists in Moscow, Rudenko said the “situation with the explosions” in the region indicated that “certain forces” behind the attacks were interested in creating “another hotbed of tension in Europe” – a reference to two episodes of violence reported in the enclave in as many days.

-US and allies to move ‘heaven and earth’ to help Ukraine, says defence secretary. The United States has vowed to move “heaven and earth” to help Ukraine win its battle against Russia’s invasion as it hosted defence talks in Germany with allies from 40 nations. Speaking at the Ramstein airbase in southwestern Germany, the US defence secretary, Lloyd Austin, pledged to “help Ukraine win the fight against Russia’s unjust invasion and to build up Ukraine’s defences for tomorrow’s challenges”.

-Following initial reports from Poland’s largest news portal Onet that Russian natural gas delivery to Poland had been suspended, Gazprom denied that it had at this point stopped flows. However, it quickly said that it will halt gas deliveries starting tomorrow. But at this point gas from Russia is not flowing via the Yamal pipeline, disrupting delivery to Germany. After the initial reports, which sent European gas princes exploding, Poland has confirmed that a suspension of gas is imminent if it doesn't agree to pay in Rubles. Bloomberg is now reporting, "Poland’s main gas distributor PGNiG says it was informed by Gazprom that starting from Wednesday at CET0800 all deliveries of natural gas will be halted." And further, "PGNiG says will seek damages over breach of contract." The news comes after a reported crisis meeting of Poland’s Climate Ministry. Now it appears some final decisions must be made amid the ultimatum from Moscow.

-Russia’s gas company Gazprom is also halting gas deliveries to Bulgaria, AFP reported. In addition to Poland, Gazprom has announced that it would stop delivering gas to Bulgaria after demanding that countries pay for gas in rubles. Gazprom executives were quoted by Russian news agencies as saying “Poland must pay for gas supplies according to the new payment procedure”. However, it was not immediately clear whether Bulgaria has refused to pay in rubles as well. “Bulgargaz received a notification today, April 26, that natural gas supplies from Gazprom Export will be suspended starting April 27,” Bulgaria’s economy ministry said in a statement.

-In a major reversal following Chancellor Olaf Scholz only days ago voicing strong resistance, it appears Berlin has bowed to the mounting pressure among allies and approved new tank deliveries to Ukraine from Germany's own stock, which Scholz had previously said was depleted. The German Ministry of Defense announced Tuesday that delivery of Gepard anti-aircraft tanks to Ukraine has been approved. As part of Scholz's earlier rejection of sending heavy weapons systems, he had cited the potential for the West and Russia sliding into a WW3 and nuclear war scenario. Axios reports that "The new shipment of the German-made Flakpanzer Gepard was announced by Germany's Minister of Defense Christine Lambrecht during a meeting with more than 30 defense officials from dozens of NATO and non-NATO countries at Ramstein Air Base."

-Moldova’s president, Maia Sandu, has been speaking at a press briefing following a meeting of the country’s security council after a series of blasts were reported in the Russian-backed separatist Transnistria region.

Reuters report some key points from Sandu’s briefing:

Sandu condemned any attempts to ruin peace in her country and said Moldova will take all measures to prevent escalation.
Recent incidents are an attempt to escalate tensions, with assessments showing pro-war factions within the Transnistria region are responsible for the attacks.
The situation in the breakaway region is complex and tense, but Moldova remains open to negotiating a peaceful resolution to issues.
Sandu says she has no plans to speak to the Kremlin.

The Organization for Security and Co-operation (OSCE) in Moldova tweeted that it “condemns all attempts to destabilise (the) situation” in Transnistria and its buffer zone.

-Russia dismisses Ukraine’s call for peace talks in Mariupol. Russia’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, said Russia has dismissed Ukraine’s proposal to stage peace talks in the port city of Mariupol. Asked about the prospect of talks, Lavrov said it was a “theatrical gesture” from Ukraine and “they probably wanted another heartrending scene”.

-The Biden administration is seeking expanded government powers so it can enlist such agencies as the CIA and NASA in protecting the US against threats from drones. The push is part of a “whole-of-government” campaign to address security threats posed by the rising number of unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) in operation, which will involve increased monitoring efforts to detect and disable threatening drones. “The administration is working to expand where we can protect against nefarious UAS activity, who is authorized to take action, and how it can be accomplished lawfully,” the White House said on Monday in a statement. Congress passed legislation in 2018 giving the executive branch, including the Departments of Justice and Homeland Security, expanded powers to disable or destroy drones that are deemed dangerous. The Biden administration has called on lawmakers to go further in eliminating barriers that “impede government and law enforcement from protecting the American people and our vital security interests.”

-On Monday, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said Warsaw has delivered tanks to Ukraine as the US and its NATO allies are working to provide Kyiv with heavier weapons despite warnings from Moscow. Morawiecki wouldn’t detail what types of tanks or how many were sent to Ukraine. Earlier this month, the Czech Republic sent over a dozen Soviet-designed T-72 tanks, and other NATO members are planning to get more tanks into Kyiv’s hands.

-Slovenia is expected to send a large number of T-72 tanks to Ukraine in exchange for German-made Marder tanks, and Fox wheeled tanks.

-As Ukraine burns through anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles the US has been supplying Kiev, Raytheon CEO warned on Tuesday that the company won’t be able to replenish the Pentagon stockpiles for at least several years, citing a shortage of electronic components. “We're going to have to go out and redesign some of the electronics in the missile and the seeker head,” Raytheon Technologies CEO Greg Hayes told investment analysts during the company’s quarterly earnings call, according to Defense One. “That's going to take us a little bit of time.”

-Washington is doing everything in its power to ensure that Taiwan can withstand any potential attack, by supporting its indigenous military industry, expediting “third-party transfers,” and helping the island boost its “asymmetric” deterrence capabilities, Secretary of State Antony Blinken has said. “When it comes to Taiwan itself, we are determined to make sure that it has all necessary means to defend itself against any potential aggression, including unilateral action by China to disrupt the status quo that’s been in place for many decades,” Blinken said on Tuesday in a testimony to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.Blinken noted that the US has made or facilitated nearly $20 billion in arms sales and $2.5 billion in direct commercial sales to Taiwan since 2017. “We’ve been expediting third-party transfers to Taiwan,” he added. “We’ve been supporting indigenous industrial defense capability. And we are focused on helping them think about how to strengthen asymmetric capabilities, again as a deterrent.”