*** MILITARY SITUATION ***
This is what the Assault on Pisky looked like on the ground a couple days ago. Here the Russians are clearing Ukrainian positions on the West side of town using TOS-1 Thermobaric launchers.
-If you want to know who is winning on the ground, just pay attention to which sides mil-bloggers stops updating their maps very often. I'm seeing quite a few pro-Ukrainian mil-blog mappers on social media going weeks between updates now when they were updating every day when Russia was withdrawing from Kiev.
-I think the "feint theory" of Russia's northern campaign is the height of absurdity.
If the objective was to fix troops under Ukraine's northern command in place, that could be achieved with a slow advance focusing on defensible positions and fire control. Frankly, it could be achieved by keeping troops massed across the border in Belarus! What Russia did instead was extraordinarily disorganized "thunder runs" with long and ill-defended supply lines. Miles-long convoys stalled on the highway, troops sleeping off the roadside, piecemeal attacks against dug-in positions, entire VDV companies left as sitting ducks for UAF arty in Hostomel airport, etc. None of that chaos *adds any value* to a fixing maneuver. Russia lost thousands of troops and a staggering quantity of armor and airframes, and having to reform and rearm those BTGs *delayed* the main objective of advancing in Donbas.
-A British Spy plane (RRR7255) violated Russian airspace North of Murmansk, and was "escorted" out by a Mig -31.
-Zolochev, a small urban type settlement in the Kharkov Oblast was taken yesterday. What's interesting of this Zolochev is that, it was highly fortified and it was from there Rusian city Belgorod was shelled from time to time.
-Residents report new shelling on plant No. 6. Zaporizha. Plus or minus 15 shells, smoke seen rising.(Civilian witnesses). The exact timing is not clear from the report.
-The UK Ministry of Defence has said the explosions at the Russian-operated Saky military airfield in western Crimea earlier in the week were “almost certainly” from the detonation of up to four uncovered munition storage areas, though the original cause of the blasts remains unclear. At least five Su-24 fencer fighter-bombers and three Su-30 flanker H multi-role jets were almost certainly destroyed or seriously damaged in the blasts, according to British intelligence. Saky’s central dispersal area has suffered serious damage, but the airfield probably remains serviceable, the report added. The loss of eight combat jets represents a minor proportion of the overall fleet of aircraft Russia has available to support the war.
-'Ukraine's best pilot' killed by Russia days after getting President Zelensky honour. Anton Lystopad was named as Ukraine's best Air Force pilot in 2019 but only got the ward from President Volodymr Zelensky a few days before he was killed in action last week
*** ECONOMIC & POLITICAL ***
-The state medias of Russia and North Korea are reporting that leaders Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un have communicated mutual messages pledging deeper ties between the two nations, at a moment both find themselves heavily sanctioned by the United States and its allies. The pledge came in the form of an exchange of official diplomatic notes in which Putin wished Kim "good health and success" - and spelled out a desire for closer cooperation, coming at a key moment where Moscow has been on the offensive in trying to strengthen strategic alliances with non-Western countries, notably China and India also among them, as the Ukraine invasion has blown past six months.
-The brother of a young Marine killed during the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan reportedly died by suicide a year later during a recent memorial service for the fallen service member. Lance Cpl. Kareem Nikoui, 20, from Norco, California, was one of 13 American troops killed on Aug. 26, 2021, when a suicide bomber detonated an explosive outside the Kabul airport as crowds of Americans and Afghan allies sought to flee Taliban fighters taking over control of the capital city. Nearly a year later, Nikoui’s older brother, 28-year-old Dakota Halverson, died on Aug. 9, a press release from the Riverside County Sheriff’s Department in California confirmed, though offering few details.
-With New Weaponry, Ukraine Is Subtly Shifting Its War Strategy. While the approach has been aided by the long-range Western weapons, it has also been encouraged by Western officials. Mr. Reznikov, Ukraine’s defense minister, said this week that the American and British defense ministers had both offered him a piece of advice: “The Russians use meat-grinder tactics — if you plan to fight them with the same tactics, we will not be able to help you.”
-Several major Wall Street banks have begun offering to facilitate trades in Russian debt in recent days, according to bank documents seen by Reuters, giving investors another chance to dispose of assets widely seen in the West as toxic. Most U.S. and European banks had pulled back from the market in June after the Treasury Department banned U.S. investors from purchasing any Russian security as part of economic sanctions to punish Moscow for invading Ukraine, according to an investor who holds Russian securities and two banking sources.
-Japan has revealed it will keep hold of its stake in the Sakhalin-1 oil and gas project in Russia, despite Western energy giants abandoning projects in the country. Industry minister Koichi Hagiuda argued the project was key to diversifying Japan’s energy supply. He said: “Sakhalin-1 is a valuable non-Middle East source for Japan, which depends on the Middle East for 90 per cent of its crude oil imports. There is no change in maintaining the interests of Japanese companies in it.” Sakhalin Oil and Gas Development, a Japanese consortium, owns 30 per cent of Sakhalin-1. Russia has banned investors from so-called unfriendly countries from selling shares in banks and key energy projects, including Sakhalin-1, until the end of the year. This is despite firms such as Shell and BP unilaterally ditching stakes in projects situated in the country following the invasion of Ukraine.
-Contrary to the best efforts of those that have funded, molded and justified this proxy war the truth has a habit of resurfacing. It will be impossible to “manage” the oncoming tide of reality that will gush out of Ukraine as the western powers refocus on their self-inflicted domestic troubles this winter, Zelensky himself may become the fall guy for the failed NATO escapade in Ukraine.
-Global rating agencies S&P and Fitch on Friday lowered Ukraine's foreign currency ratings to selective default and restricted default as they consider the country's debt restructuring as distressed. Earlier this week, Ukraine's overseas creditors backed the country's request for a two-year freeze on payments on almost $20 billion in international bonds. The move will save Ukraine some $6 billion on payments according to Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal. Battered by Russia's invasion, which started on Feb. 24, Ukraine faces a 35%-45% economic contraction in 2022 and a monthly fiscal shortfall of $5 billion.
-Ukraine aims to strike a deal for a $15-$20 billion programme with the International Monetary Fund before year-end to help shore up its war-torn economy, the country's central bank governor Kyrylo Shevchenko told Reuters. Shevchenko ……said he hoped to agree on a swap line with the Bank of England "within weeks", though he did not specify the amount. Kyiv had already submitted its request to the IMF, the governor said, and was now in consultation with the fund over the new financing that he hoped would provide as much as $20 billion over two or three years in form of a Stand-By Arrangement or an Extended Fund Facility.
-Iran and Russia had expanded the level of their strategic cooperation in various fields, most recently in space when a Russian rocket launched an Iranian satellite into orbit from the Russian launch facility in Kazakhstan. Iran will undoubtedly benefit from renewing its bank of objectives and identifying more targets related to its enemies based in the Middle East, mainly the US military bases and Israel. Moreover, Russia has signed a contract with Iran to buy 1,000 drones after Iran delivered a few planes and a simulator on which Russian officers trained: they successfully used the first drones in Ukraine. This move is considered unprecedented for a superpower to buy its drones from Iran. Tehran considers this to be recognition of its advanced and effective military industry, achieved despite 43 years of US sanctions on the “Islamic Republic”.
Russia has not dedicated much attention or adequate investment to the drone industry in the past decade. Instead, Moscow has focused on developing hypersonic missiles, which succeeded in attaining an operational level of this technology ahead of the US. Russia’s interest in military development has concentrated on nuclear warhead strategic missiles- whereas in fact drones have become necessary for every army. Iran also developed its long-range and precision missiles to reach a distance of 2000 km and they were successfully used in Iraq and Syria against different targets. However, as we can see, Tehran also focused on developing its drone industry intensively. Tehran used it in Syria and handed it over to its allies in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen, also transferring experiences to the Palestinians in Gaza.
According to well-informed sources in Iran, “the purchase of drones by a superpower like Russia is an important indication confirming the quality and development of Iranian industry, which has succeeded in producing the most advanced drones such as the Shahid 129 which can fly for a period exceeding 24 hours. This is what attracted Russia, especially for use in its war in Ukraine.”
-Russia has warned the US that potentially placing Russia on the US State Department’s list of state sponsors of terrorism could be a diplomatic “point of no return”, and trigger a total breakdown of relations between the two countries.
-India's biggest cement producer, UltraTech Cement (ULTC.NS), is importing a cargo of Russian coal and paying using Chinese yuan, according to an Indian customs document reviewed by Reuters, a rare payment method that traders say could become more common.
UltraTech is bringing in 157,000 tonnes of coal from Russian producer SUEK (...), the document showed. It cites an invoice dated June 5 that values the cargo at 172,652,900 yuan ($25.81 million).
-Soldiers from a U.S. air assault division that arrived in Europe in late July are being sent to NATO members in eastern Europe to help protect the military alliance's eastern flank, the U.S. Mission to NATO announced Thursday, as Russia fuels concerns that its war could widen beyond Ukraine. The mission said that nearly 2,400 soldiers would be sent to NATO members Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary and Slovakia to "reassure our Allies, and deter our adversaries."
-Iran and Russia are to manufacture three orbital spacecraft similar to the recently launched Khayyam spacecraft. The Minister of Information and Communication Technologies of Iran, Isa Zarepur said, "God willing, we will build Khayyam-2, Khayyam-3 and Khayyam-4 in cooperation with Russia." He explained that the Khayyam apparatus was developed by the Iranian Space Agency, while its manufacture was carried out in Russia. On Tuesday, Roscosmos announced that the Khayyam satellite, launched on August 9 from the Baikonur Cosmodrome, had been launched into orbit.
-The war between Ukraine and Russia has become a topic of interest for American service members and veterans, but the consequences of the conflict may ripple through the U.S. military community in ways that are unexpected and that we are not prepared for. There may be a looming psychological health crisis for U.S. volunteers returning from Ukraine. ... The surviving volunteers who make it home uninjured may continue to face hardship upon their return. Reporters on the ground have been providing direct quotes from American fighters, and it has become clear that volunteers might face a unique type of psychological health crisis that was rarely seen after the Iraq and Afghanistan conflicts. The first reason for this is the ferocity of the war. This war is not like Iraq or Afghanistan. The fighting is more intense, and volunteers are seeing more combat than ever before while having fewer advantages that the U.S. military was able to provide previously (e.g., no air superiority).
In this war, Americans are fighting against Europeans. In the Global War on Terror conflicts, Americans have benefited from experiencing an in-group/out-group phenomenon. In other words, they have been able to easily psychologically distinguish themselves from the enemy. That is beneficial to warfighters because it is easier to dehumanize an enemy if they do not look or act like you. When fighting in the Middle East or North Africa, it may have been possible to create a dissociation because the enemy “is not like us.”This is not the case in Ukraine. This situation is exemplified in another purported quote from a U.S. volunteer on the ground: “It’s feeling like my days are numbered and I’d like to say some things. About me. Former military. Afghanistan veteran. Combat experienced. Three days ago I was in a trench line listening to artillery. I got to thinking about the perspective of the enemy. Just a few hundred yards away are the Russians. Living through the same bullshit I am… I’ve seen dead bodies before. Dead Taliban. Dead Afghan civilians. But that culture was so far removed and different from ours that I couldn’t really identify with it. I saw some dead Russians lined up by the road and I was shocked. I thought, ‘These guys could be me.’”
Moral injury occurs when an individual experiences or witnesses an event that contradicts their core moral values or beliefs. Moral injury, like PTSD, can leave lasting emotional scars. In a situation when warfighters are not able to dissociate psychologically from the enemy (e.g., Americans fighting Russians), the likelihood of experiencing moral injury may be higher.
-Tallinn and Helsinki have discussed integration of coastal missile batteries that would enable the two NATO members to blockade the Russian Navy in the Gulf of Finland, Estonia’s defense minister announced on Friday. This would turn the Baltic Sea into a “NATO internal sea,” the official said, echoing comments made earlier by Polish and Lithuanian leaders. “We need to integrate our coastal defenses. The flight range of Estonian and Finnish missiles is greater than the width of the Gulf of Finland,” Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur told the Finnish newspaper Iltalehti. Finland’s MTO85M coastal missiles have a range of over 100 kilometers. The Gulf is about 82 kilometers across from Helsinki to Tallinn. Estonia plans to buy Israeli Blue Spear missiles later this year, which have a range of almost 300 kilometers.
-Russian ex-president Dmitry Medvedev issued a veiled threat on Friday to Ukraine’s western allies who have accused Russia of creating the risk of a nuclear catastrophe by stationing forces around the Ukrainian Zaporizhzhia power station. Ukraine has accused Russia of firing at Ukrainian towns from the site in the knowledge that Ukrainian forces could not risk returning fire, Reuters reported. It says Moscow has shelled the area itself while blaming Ukraine. Russia says it is Ukraine that has shelled the plant.
-Russia’s permanent representation in the UN, Vasyl Nebenzia, has said the country does not support a proposal to create a demilitarised zone around the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.
-Ukraine’s defence minister Oleksii Reznikov has said that a shipment of M20 MLRS tanks have arrived in Ukraine. In a tweet, he thanked the UK’s defence minister Ben Wallace and British people for the donation, which had been pledged earlier. “Your support is amazing and so important for Ukraine,” he said.
-In an interview the self-appointed leader of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic, Denis Pushilin, said the advance of pro-Russian forces in the Donbas is developing in a northern direction, with fighting going on on the outskirts of Bakhmut and Soledar. He said that the DPR was in negotiations with Pyongyang to bring builders from North Korea in to help rebuild the occupied territory. Pushilin also stated that there would be an “open tribunal over the war criminals of Ukraine”, with the first to be held in Mariupol, which would feature the testimony of the “Azovites”, in reference to Ukraine’s Azov battalion.
-Russia has launched an Iranian satellite from Kazakhstan amid concerns that it could be used for battlefield surveillance in Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. Iran has denied that the Khayyam satellite, which was delivered into orbit aboard a Soyuz rocket launched from the Baikonur cosmodrome in Kazakhstan, would ever be under Russian control.
-Russia has suspended an arrangement that allowed US and Russian inspectors to visit each other’s nuclear weapons sites under the 2010 New Start treaty, in a fresh blow to arms control. Mutual inspections had been suspended as a health precaution since the start of the Covid pandemic, but a foreign ministry statement on Monday added another reason Russia is unwilling to restart them. It argued that US sanctions imposed because of the invasion of Ukraine stopped Russian inspectors travelling to the US.
-A Russian diplomat warned that if his country is declared a state sponsor of terrorism, it could not only harm US-Russo relations but potentially sever them completely. On Friday, Alexander Darchiyev, director of the Russian Foreign Ministry's North American department told the TASS news agency: "I would like to mention the legislative initiative currently being discussed in Congress to declare Russia a 'country sponsor of terrorism.' If passed, it would mean that Washington would have to cross the point of no return, with the most serious collateral damage to bilateral diplomatic relations, up to their lowering or even breaking them off. The US side has been warned."
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