*** MILITARY SITUATION ***
-The pin-prick attacks in Crimea are being played up very heavily in Western media, but they are clearly being staged to try to sell the idea to the west that since Ukraine can make attacks on Russian territory and they are not starting WWIII over it, that it's OK to send more money and long range weapons. While keeping up morale in the Ukraine, it's doubtful they will have any significant impact to stem Russia's advances.
-Russia isn't having it as easy as some Russia pundits would have you believe:
1) supply lines degraded by HIMARS etc., shells fired per day is down from e.g. battle for Severodonetsk
2) long external GLOCs vs. shorter interior GLOCs for Ukraine, salients are gone
3) accurate western howitzers + counter-battery radar makes Russian fire missions shorter
4) assaulting fortified lines is hard.
5) after the failed attacks in the north, Russia is extremely reluctant to use its elite or even regular troops for assaulting and is relying very heavily on LDNR cannon fodder + Wagner. No mobilization in Russia despite massive casualties is the big tell here.
With a limited Special Military Operation (SMO) with only ~110 Battalion Tactical Groups (BTG) for so many Km of frontlines - from here Russia will hold the lines in this area (while keeping the Donetsk Republic liberation), and wait for the September referendums in Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts. Then, when those become Russian territory like Crimea, Russia can place its conscripts there without the need to declare war. While those will keep the peace and the new borders, the +110 BTG from the professional army will continue the SMO to the territories that now need to be captured.
As for the "terrorist attacks" in Crimea, there are NO terrorist attacks during a war. Only successful military undercover operations. Russia's security failed, big time. That being said, if an army can't recover an inch of lost ground, cannot even rehearse a draft of a counter-offensive even with all the billion$ of foreign "help", then the use of such tactics means the same thing they meant in USA's invasion of Iraq: despair - a sign that the invaded side is losing big time when it comes to actual warfare.
Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) daily update reveals for the 2nd day in a row only 1 MRLS destroyed in Ukraine. From the previous average of 4 to 5 destroyed every day. Two speculations: 1) the HIMARS left are being harder to track; 2) Ukraine is running out of MRLS. Point 1 might be because Ukraine's military improved the tactics after Russia destroyed 8 of the 16 so relatively fast. Point 2 is consistent with that news that the Collective West is delivering fewer weapons to Ukraine in the last months.
-Western official: significant efforts being made to understand if Ukraine can mount a successful counter attack in the south. Such attacks are not without risk. Near term unclear: "Both we and the Kremlin are entering unchartered territory"
-Western official: raid on Saky airbase knocked out "more than half" of Russia's combat naval aviation in Black Sea. Such raids for good for Ukrainian morale but overall "combat stasis" remains
-Ukraine has launched a fresh strike on Russia’s Black Sea fleet headquarters at Sevastopol, where officials in the annexed Crimean peninsula said that at least one drone had been shot down by air defences.
-Russia’s defence ministry said it has destroyed an ammunition depot containing missiles for US-made rocket systems and other Western-made anti-aircraft systems in Ukraine’s Odesa region, according to a report by Reuters.
*** ECONOMIC & POLITICAL ***
-Several Russian soldiers involved in the military operation in Ukraine have been hospitalized with severe chemical poisoning, the Russian Defense Ministry said on Saturday. Traces of Botulinum toxin Type B, which is an “organic poison of artificial origin,” have been discovered in samples taken from the servicemen, the ministry said, accusing Kiev of “chemical terrorism.” The Russian troops were “hospitalized with signs of severe poisoning” after being stationed near the village of Vasilyevka in Zaporozhye Region on July 31, the statement said. “The Zelensky regime has authorized terrorist attacks with the use of toxic substances against Russian personnel and civilians” following a string of military defeats in Donbass and other areas, the ministry insisted.
-A senior administration official told NatSec Daily the U.S. supports strikes on Crimea if Kyiv deems them necessary. “We don't select targets, of course, and everything we've provided is for self-defense purposes. Any target they choose to pursue on sovereign Ukrainian soil is by definition self defense,” this person said. After your host checked to see if the administration considered the peninsula sovereign Ukrainian territory, the official replied: “Crimea is Ukraine.”
-The US is planning to buy about 150,000 metric tonnes of grain from Ukraine in the next few weeks for an upcoming shipment of food aid from ports no longer blockaded by war, the World Food Programme chief has said.
-Russia's English language state RT News is confirming the death of Darya Dugina, the daughter of veteran Russian political commentator and Putin ally Alexander Dugin, in what appears to have been a targeted hit - possibly an attempt on her father Alexander's life. RT however is still calling the reports "preliminary" until government authorities confirm the identity of the deceased. "The incident took place on a highway some 20 kilometers west of Moscow around 21:35 local time, with witnesses saying that the blast rocked the vehicle right in the middle of the road, scattering debris all around," according to new details in RT. "The crippled car, fully engulfed in flames, then crashed into a fence, according to photos and videos from the scene."
"Emergency services said one person was inside the car and was instantly killed by the blast and crash – a female whose body was reportedly recovered burned beyond recognition." RT writes further: "Authorities have yet to confirm the identity of the victim, but multiple Russian Telegram channels and media sources reported that the victim was 30-year-old Darya Dugina (Platonova).
Her father, Alexander Dugin, was spotted at the scene soon after the incident, visibly shocked, according to several videos circulating on social media." While an official cause of the blast hasn't been identified as yet, there's widespread speculation it was an Improvised Explosive Device (IED). There's also much speculation centered on the apparent bombing being a likely attempt on Alexander Dugin, with unconfirmed reports saying she had been driving his car and he was in another vehicle.
Denis Pushilin, the Russian proxy leader of Ukraine's occupied Donetsk, angrily blamed “terrorists of the Ukrainian regime” for the blast, writing on Telegram that they had been “trying to liquidate Alexander Dugin” but “blew up his daughter.” “In loving memory of Darya, she is a true Russian girl,” Pushilin wrote. Pro-Kremlin Telegram channels and social media pages similarly blamed Ukraine for the explosion and called on Russians to “avenge” Dugina’s death.
-Ukraine is bracing for a likely escalation in Russian attacks following last night's killing of the daughter of Alexander Dugin - Darya Dugina - by what looked to be a car bomb as she as driving his car home from an event. Based on the details that emerged, many believe it was an assassination attempt on the prominent but deeply controversial Russian political commentator and philosopher himself. Contrary to current exaggerated Western mainstream headlines referring to him as "Putin's brain" - there's no clear evidence that Dugin and Putin have ever even met (much less a photograph of the two together or in the same room, which we've yet to find), though the influence of Dugin's thought on certain Russian political circles is clear. He's long been central to developing the so-called 'Russian world' ideology, but his influence on actual Kremlin policy circles has been marginal at best especially since 2014, given he's been much more hawkish and maximalist when it comes to the Ukraine crisis, at times uncomfortably so for Russia's political leadership. On Sunday, Russia's Investigative Committee said in an official statement that it has opened a murder investigation following a car bomb being detonated under Alexander Dugin's vehicle, which only his daughter Darya was driving at the time (eyewitnesses say he switched cars at the last minute when returning from an event). According to Russia’s Investigative Committee, the Toyota Land Cruiser she was driving was ripped apart by a car bomb in the Moscow region, near the village of Bolshie Vyazemy, in a targeted killing by unknown entities: Pro-Russian Donbass militia leaders, Denis Pushilin foremost among them, have called on fighters to quickly “avenge” Dugina’s death. At the same time, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is now warning his citizens that severe escalation looms.
-Last month, a Chinese entrepreneur making medical equipment for consumers told me that local officials had demanded he convert his production lines in China so that they could turn out items for the military. Communist Party cadres, he said, were issuing similar orders to other manufacturers. Moreover, Chinese academics privately say the ongoing expulsion of foreign colleagues from China’s universities appears to be a preparation for hostilities. The People’s Republic of China is preparing to go to war, and it is not trying to hide its efforts. Amendments to the National Defense Law, effective the first day of last year, transfer powers from civilian to military officials. In general, the amendments reduce the role of the central government’s State Council by shifting power to the CMC, the Communist Party’s Central Military Commission. Specifically, the State Council will no longer supervise the mobilization of the People’s Liberation Army.
-Chinese leader Xi Jinping could travel to Central Asia in September to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit, the Wall Street Journal reported on Friday, citing sources familiar with the matter. Xi’s office indicated this week that he could personally attend the summit, due to take place in the Uzbek city of Samarkand on September 15 and 16, the sources explained. Officials have also begun preparing possible bilateral meetings with Putin, as well as the leaders of Pakistan, India, and Turkey, who are also expected to arrive.
-Skyrocketing energy prices have prompted some Europeans to stockpile basic forms of heating and buy stoves to keep warm. Natural gas prices across Europe have quadrupled this year. Looking ahead to winter and imagining the new heights energy values may hit, consumers are starting to opt for an alternative (old) form of heating – wood. Huge demand for combustibles, as well as for wood stoves, has been detected in several Western states. In Germany, where almost a half of homes are heated with gas, people are turning to a more guaranteed energy source. Firewood sellers tell local media that they are barely coping with the demand. The country is also witnessing a rise in cases of wood theft. Next door, in the Netherlands, business owners note that their clients are buying wood earlier than ever. In Belgium, wood producers are struggling with demand, while prices are going up – as they are across the region. In Denmark, one local stove manufacturer told the media that, while demand for his product was on the rise since the start of the Covid pandemic, this year’s profit is forecast to reach over 16 million kroner (€2 million), compared with 2.4 million in 2019. A huge increase. Even Hungary, a country that didn’t support the EU’s decision to phase out Russian fossil fuels and agreed a new gas purchase with Moscow this summer, is making preparations for a tough winter. The country has announced a ban on the export of firewood and relaxed some restrictions on logging. The World Wildlife Fund Hungary has expressed its concern on the matter, declaring: “There has been no precedent for such a decision in our country for decades.”
-Swiss people may revolt and resort to looting if the Alpine nation is hit by a severe energy crunch this winter, the police chief of one of its cantons told local media on Saturday. Fredy Fassler, the head of the Security and Justice Department in the canton of St. Gallen, told German-language daily Blick that a blackout would have “far-reaching consequences.” “Imagine, you can no longer withdraw money at the ATM, you can no longer pay with the card in the store or refuel your tank at the gas station. Heating stops working. It’s cold. Streets go dark. It is conceivable that the population would rebel or that there would be looting,” he said, adding that the country’s authorities should take measures to prepare for such extreme scenarios.
-Chinese President Xi Jinping asked US President Joe Biden to prevent House Speaker Nancy Pelosi from visiting Taiwan earlier this month, the Washington Post reported on Saturday. Although Biden insisted that Pelosi was entitled to travel as she wished, his officials were reportedly concerned about antagonizing China. Xi and Biden spoke by phone late last month, days before Pelosi touched down in Taiwan. According to a Chinese readout of the call at the time, Xi warned Biden not to “play with fire,” as Beijing viewed the visit as emboldening Taiwanese independence. According to the Washington Post’s sources, Xi directly asked Biden not to allow the trip to go ahead, a statement previously not acknowledged by either side. However, Biden insisted that he “could not oblige, explaining that Congress was an independent branch of government and that Pelosi, as with other members of Congress, would make her own decisions about foreign trips,” the newspaper reported.
-The US will send additional military aid worth $775 million to Kiev, the Pentagon announced on Friday. The newest batch of weapons will include howitzers, drones and mine-clearing equipment, as well as munitions for the HIMARS rocket launchers and other US-made weapons. Citing Defense Department sources, US media reported that the military assistance package is expected to include 16 105mm howitzers and munitions for them, as well as AGM-88 HARM anti-radar missiles, 40 MaxxPro mine-resistant ambush protected vehicles (MRAP), and 50 Humvees. For the first time, the US will be supplying the Ukrainian forces with unmanned aerial systems, specifically 15 Scan Eagle surveillance drones. Their delivery would provide Ukraine with “better reconnaissance around the front lines,” a Pentagon official told the media. Kiev will also get munitions for the HIMARS rocket lanuchers the US has previously supplied to Ukraine. According to the Pentagon, the US seeks to help Ukrainian forces make gains on the battlefield. According to the New York Post, the delivery will also involve 36,000 artillery rounds and 1,000 Javelin portable anti-tank missiles. Other reports mentioned TOW anti-tank missiles as well.
Earlier this week, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin said the Americans were “trying to prolong this conflict” between Moscow and Kiev, assigning the role of “cannon fodder” to Ukrainians in Washington’s “anti-Russia project.”
-The Chinese and Russian leaders Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin will attend the G20 summit in Bali in November, Indonesia’s president, Joko Widodo, told Bloomberg News. “Xi Jinping will come. President Putin has also told me he will come,” Jokowi, as he is popularly known, told the news agency.
-The writing is on the wall for Europe in terms of this coming winter – It's going to get ugly. With natural gas imports from Russia cut by 80% through Nord Stream 1 along with the majority of oil shipments, the EU is going to be scrambling for whatever fuel sources they can find to supply electricity and heating through the coming winter. Two sources that were originally suggested as alternatives were Iran and Venezuela. Increased Iranian oil and gas exports to the west are highly dependent on the tentative nuclear deal, but as Goldman Sachs recently suggested, such a deal is unlikely anytime soon as deadlines on proposals have not been met and the Israeli government calls for negotiators to 'walk away.' Venezuela had restarted shipments to Europe after 2 years of US sanctions under a deal that allows them to trade oil for debt relief. However, the country's government has now suspended those shipments, saying it is no longer interested in oil-for-debt deals and instead wants refined fuels from Italian and Spanish producers in exchange for crude.
-The UN secretary general has asked Russia not to cut the nuclear plant from Ukraine’s grid. António Guterres asked on Friday that the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power station not be cut off from Ukraine’s grid after Ukrainian reports that Moscow is planning to do so. “Obviously the electricity from Zaporizhzhia is Ukrainian electricity … This principle must be fully respected,” said the UN secretary general during a visit to the port of Odesa in southern Ukraine.
-Ukraine’s economy could contract 35-40% by the end of the year, economy minister Yulia Svyrydenko said on Friday.
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