*** MILITARY SITUATION ***
Two B52 bomber planes take off from RAF Fairford in England towards South-East Europe to conduct high visibility flyovers, as part of NATO deterrent missions in the region.
-Russia has pulled more than 700 combat aircraft and helicopters to the Ukrainian borders — the Command of the AFU. Russia has concentrated more than 400 aircraft and about 360 combat helicopters around the Ukrainian borders. This was worriedly stated by the speaker of the AFU command Yu . Ignat. "There is a group of Russian aircraft around our borders - more than 400 combat aircraft. There are also 360 helicopters, of which more than 150 are attack helicopters, such as the Ka-52," he said. Ignat also added that the Russian army is constantly actively using aviation to strike at AFU facilities, as well as for reconnaissance and detection.
*** ECONOMIC & POLITICAL ***
-The US government intends to officially name its military mission to aid Kiev and appoint a general to command it, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing Biden administration officials. This would formalize the operation that predates the escalation of hostilities in Ukraine and allow the Pentagon to award ribbons, medals, and special pay to its participants. Giving the operation a name is “significant bureaucratically,” the Journal explained, as it “typically entails long-term, dedicated funding and the possibility of special pay, ribbons and awards for service members participating in the effort.” The US has previously named its operations in Afghanistan and Iraq. The original intervention in Afghanistan was dubbed “Enduring Freedom,” replaced by the nation-building “Freedom’s Sentinel” in 2015. The 2003 invasion of Iraq was called “Iraqi Freedom,” while the 2014 redeployment to Iraq and Syria to fight Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIS) terrorists was designated “Inherent Resolve.” A two-star or three-star general will be appointed to command the effort, in what the Journal described as “a shift from the largely ad hoc effort to to provide training and assistance to the Ukrainians for years.”
-Vladimir Putin has signed a decree to increase the size of Russia’s armed forces from 1.9 million to 2.04 million, as the war in Ukraine enters its seventh month with no signs of abating.
-The mayor of the Russian-occupied city of Melitopol, Ivan Fedorov, has said a building allegedly used by Russian-backed officials in the region has been “blown up”. Fedorov, who is not in the city, posted a video reportedly showing damage to the building, which he said was being used to plan a “pseudo-referendum” by Russia-backed authorities on whether the region should join Russia.
-AMSTERDAM (Reuters) - The Dutch city of The Hague on Thursday said it would ask for a temporary exemption of EU sanctions against Russia, as it struggles to find a replacement for its contract with Russian gas supplier Gazprom in time. Sanctions imposed by the European Union against Russia following its invasion of Ukraine order governments and other public bodies to end existing contracts with Russian companies by October 10.
-Last regular power line to Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant restored, says UN watchdog. The last regular power line supplying electricity to the Russian-held Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Ukraine has been restored, according to the UN nuclear watchdog, citing Ukraine. It comes after Ukraine’s nuclear power operator, Energoatom, said the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant was disconnected from Ukraine’s national grid for the first time in nearly 40 years of operation. The final power line connecting the plant to the grid was cut twice by fires at the ash pits of a nearby coal-fired power plant, the operator said earlier today. Disconnecting the plant raises the risk of catastrophic failure of cooling systems for its reactors and spent fuel rods, which run on electricity.
-The White House called on Russia to agree to a demilitarised zone around the plant, after the US president, Joe Biden, spoke to his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelenskiy.
-President Joe Biden announced the largest weapons and aid package yet for Ukraine on Wednesday, a $2.98billion package that would push total U.S. aid well past the annual budgets of at least eight federal programs, including the entire judicial branch. The weapons and aid will be provided through the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative and “will allow Ukraine to acquire air defense systems, artillery systems and munitions, counter-unmanned aerial systems, and radars to ensure it can continue to defend itself over the long term,” Biden said in a statement.
The latest package includes:
- Up to 245,000 rounds of 155mm artillery ammunition.
- Six additional National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems with additional munitions for NASAMS.
- Up to 65,000 rounds of 120mm mortar ammunition.
- Up to 24 counter-artillery radars.
- Puma Unmanned Aerial Systems and support equipment for ScanEagle UAS.
- VAMPIRE Counter-Unmanned Aerial Systems.
- Laser-guided rocket systems.
- Funding for training, maintenance, and sustainment.
Timed for the 31st anniversary of Ukrainian independence, the announcement arrived just five days after the previous one unveiled a $775 million package of advanced missiles, armored vehicles, and artillery. But while the weapons for Friday’s package will be drawn from U.S. stockpiles, items for the upcoming set will be purchased or ordered from industry, a senior defense official told Defense One on the condition they not be named.
-India will seek broader consensus before it supports US-led efforts to cap the price of Russian oil, which American officials are expected to push for this week when they travel to Mumbai and New Delhi. The South Asian nation, which has emerged as one of the biggest buyers of Russian oil since the invasion of Ukraine, is hesitant to join the plan unless a consensus is reached with all buyers, according to people familiar with the matter, asking not to be identified because the deliberations aren’t public.
-France is headed toward the “end of abundance” and “sacrifices” have to be made during what is a time of great upheaval, President Emmanuel Macron told his cabinet on Wednesday upon returning from summer break. The country has faced multiple challenges lately, ranging from the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine to the unprecedented drought that has battered the whole European continent this summer. Yet, Macron believes that the crisis is actually of a much bigger scale and that structural changes are imminent. “Some could see our destiny as being to constantly manage crises or emergencies. I believe that we are living through a tipping point or great upheaval. Firstly, because we are living through... what could seem like the end of abundance,” he said. The country and its citizens must be ready to make “sacrifices” to meet and overcome the challenges they are facing, he continued. “Our system based on freedom in which we have become used to living, when we need to defend it sometimes that can entail making sacrifices,” Macron added.
-Germany cannot deliver more weapons to Ukraine without depleting its own stocks, its defense ministry has said. Despite the military reaching the “acceptable limit” of what it can send, Chancellor Olaf Scholz is under intense pressure to keep the arms flowing to Kiev. “We went to the acceptable limit when selling Bundeswehr stocks,” a spokesman for Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht told Der Spiegel on Monday, a day after the German news outlet published a guest article from lawmakers Kristian Klinck, Sara Nanni, and Alexander Mueller calling for Germany to up its weapons deliveries to Ukraine.
-Quoting M K Bhadrakumar from Indian Punchline On August 23 2022:
"Once again, while Russia is steadily winning the ground war in Ukraine, the U.S. is determined not to lose the information war. In Washington’s reckoning, in this Internet Age, the war is to be ultimately won in the Russian people’s minds." Bhadrakumar concludes that 'the US plans to go further up on the escalation ladder. Escalation is the Biden Administration’s last chance to stall a Russian victory'. This escalatory perspective is underlined by US approval of the drone attacks on Crimea, the Ukranian threats to attack the Kerch Bridge and most worryingly the shelling of the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant. In this context we can surmise that the SBU assassination of Darva Dugina was planned and conducted with the approval and likely assistance of the US/UK.
-Here’s some more detail on the US military aid package for Ukraine of about $3bn, which would be the single largest assistance package that the US has provided for Ukraine since the start of the war. The package will use funds from the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, appropriated by the US congress, to allow the Biden administration to procure weapons from industry rather than taking weapons from existing US weapons stocks, Reuters reports. The new weapons do not appear to include types of arms that had not been provided previously to the Ukrainian military, according to a US official. The amount and mix of weapons could change before the formal announcement, expected to take place tomorrow, the official added.
-Sichuan's worst drought in over half a century forced the Chinese province to extend power cuts for industrial plants. Power rationings are essential to ease electricity demand due to a menacing heatwave and limited rainfall that is driving down hydropower generation while cooling demand skyrockets -- the combination is dangerous in terms of grid stability and is primarily why power cuts were prolonged. Morgan Stanley analyst Simon Lee told clients Sunday that the provinces with 84 million people and a key manufacturing hub for semiconductor and solar panels faced "the hottest temperatures and the worst drought of the past 60 years." Sichuan heavily relies on hydropower generation for 82% of its power needs. About half of the renewable energy source has been slashed because rainfall along the Yangtze River since July has been 45% below average, the lowest since 1961. Falling hydropower generation comes as electricity demand in the province jumped 65 gigawatts, nearly a quarter higher than last year. Goldman Sachs' Trina Chen wrote power curtailments pose the most significant risk to rice supplies, followed by aluminum and battery materials.
-Defense Department Inspector General has released its long-awaited report on what the Biden Administration left behind in Afghanistan. It is an unbelievable list of equipment left to one of the most violent groups in the world with a history of supporting terrorist organizations. I opposed the long war in Afghanistan, so I was not among those critical of Trump or Biden in pushing to leave the conflict. However, no one has ever explained why the Biden Administration left this equipment in Afghanistan as opposed to removing it or destroying it. While the collapse of the Afghan government was rapid in the final days, the government had many months to prepare for the scheduled withdrawal. Yet, it took no steps to remove or destroy this equipment. Instead, it elected to leave this arsenal intact to the Taliban. The ground vehicle inventory alone was worth about $4.12 billion. In addition, the U.S. military lost $923.3 million worth of military aircraft and $294.6 million in aircraft munitions. The Taliban was instantly made one of the best equipped militaries in the world due to this windfall gift by the Biden Administration. While the report says that “some” of the aircraft were “demilitarized and rendered inoperable during the evacuation,” most of this equipment was left ready-to-use, including 316,260 small arms, including sniper rifles, machine guns and grenade launchers, were left behind, amounting to $511.8 million.
-The US is planning to supply Ukraine with GPS-guided high-precision M982 Excalibur artillery shells, Politico reported on Friday, citing a person familiar with the matter. The shell is equipped with an armor-penetrating warhead and has a laser-guided version. The munitions can be fired using US-made M777 howitzers, which are already being used by Ukrainian troops. The shells can hit targets at a range of up to 70km, depending on the artillery caliber, according to the manufacturer, Raytheon Technologies. The Excalibur munitions would allow Ukraine to strike targets deep inside Russian-controlled territories.
-The head of Ukraine’s security service, the SBU, in Kirovograd Region was found dead in his home on Saturday evening, with sources telling local media that it was likely a suicide. The body of Aleksandr Nakonechny was discovered by his wife at their apartment in Krapivnitsky, the website Obozrevatel explained. The SBU has confirmed the security chief's death, saying that the incident is being investigated. Obozrevatel added that Nakonechny died of a “penetrating gunshot wound to the body.”
-Ukraine has denied involvement in the death of Darya Dugina amid fears the car bombing raises the stakes in the Russia-Ukraine war. Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s top adviser, Mykhailo Podolyak, told Ukrainian TV: “I confirm that Ukraine, of course, had nothing to do with this because we are not a criminal state, like the Russian Federation, and moreover we are not a terrorist state.”
-Ex-Russian MP claims Russian partisans responsible for Moscow car bomb. Speaking in Kyiv, Ilya Ponomarev alleges that the bomb that killed the daughter of Vladimir Putin ally earlier on Sunday was the work of underground group the National Republican Army.
-The US and Seoul have kicked off their largest joint military exercises in years on Monday. The Ulchi Freedom Shield drills are set to continue through September 1, and will include numerous aircraft, warships and pieces of artillery, with thousands of troops training for different “defensive” and “counterattack” scenarios. The first stage of the drills will be focused on repelling a hypothetical North Korean attack, as well as civil defense response to various simulated threats, such as “fire at a semiconductor factory,” “airport terrorism,” or “discovery of improvised explosive devices at nuclear power plants,” according to Yonhap. In the second stage, the allied forces will sharpen their “counterattack” capabilities, by conducting live fire drills during more than a dozen of different combined field training programs.
-By ignoring calls to supply Kiev with more heavy weaponry Germany has abandoned Ukraine to its fate, former ambassador Andrey Melnik said on Sunday. The outspoken envoy was removed from his position in July following several controversies. Taking to Twitter, the diplomat, who was fired after a string of contentious remarks – which included jabs at German Chancellor Olaf Scholz – accused the German government of putting Kiev on a military “diet.”
-The NATO-led Kosovo Force (KFOR) has increased its patrols of the northern part of the province amid ongoing tensions between Belgrade and Pristina, Serbian media reported on Saturday. Troops were deployed in significant numbers to two checkpoints at the border between Serbia and Kosovo, the reports said, adding that KFOR had vowed to “intervene” if necessary. The move follows the collapse of talks between Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic and Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti on Thursday.
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