*** MILITARY SITUATION ***
Western and Ukrainian outlets circulated a report, likely false, of a Russian general allegedly threatening to destroy Europe’s largest nuclear facility, the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (NPP), if Russia could not hold the plant. Multiple news outlets shared a screenshot from the Russian social networking site Vkontakte that claimed to cite the Russian head of the Zaporizhia occupation garrison, Major General Valery Vasilev, stating that Russia had mined the Zaporizhzhia NPP and that the plant would be “either Russian land or a scorched desert.” The screenshot appeared to be a news report posted in a Vkontakte group run by Russian outlet Lenta Novosti Zaporizhia. The outlet itself claimed that the screenshot was from a faked group and denied writing the report. The Russian Ministry of Defense condemned the report and screenshot as a “fake” and claimed that Vasilev was in Uzbekistan at the time he was purported to have made the statement to forces at Zaporizhzhia. Regardless of the origin (or existence) of the original post, the reporting is unreliable. It is indirect and does not claim to cite an official statement or a statement made on any official Russian news or government website.
-The Ukrainian military claims to have struck a major airbase deep inside the occupied Crimean peninsula. At least 12 explosions hit the Saky naval airbase, causing a huge plume of smoke. Russia has disputed the claims and says it was not an attack but a detonation of ammunition.
This is 200km from the front lines so it is either a Russian accident or the Ukrainians are secretly being given very long range munitions. Russia considers Crimea as its territory. It had threatened to attack 'decision centers' should such attacks on its territory occur. Now, Crimean missile defence is solid, so this event may be sabotage. But local officials report 'several explosions' as opposed to just one. Ministry of Defense says 'several air launched munitions'. Videos all seem to start play only from just after or during final blast, even from several different vantage points.
-Russia’s defence ministry said on Tuesday that Russian forces had destroyed an ammunition depot near Uman in Ukraine storing US-made Himars missiles and M777 howitzers, the RIA Novosti news agency reported.
*** ECONOMIC & POLITICAL ***
-How to recreate Fukushima?
Much of the propaganda spew on Zaporizhia was triggered by the Ukrainian attack on the plant of Aug. 5th. That damaged transformers and power lines that tripped safety protection systems on Unit 4 (then at full power) resulting in a scram and shutting it down. A reactor trip is always a BIG deal ANYWHERE when a reactor is at full power. It remains in cold shutdown today - neither the IAEA, Energoatom (state nuke operator) nor the World Nuclear Association have reported it being restarted or brought back on line.
That only leaves Unit 1 and 2 reactors operating - the other four are reported in cold shutdown. Now, any further insane Ukrainian attack could damage equipment resulting in another reactor trip leaving only one running. That, itself, is an unsafe condition as that reactor (and the spent fuel cooling pools of all six reactors) must rely on outside power for backup. The plant has emergency generators, but they're located outside. The generators and their fuel supply are extremely vulnerable to damage from shelling or drones.
I have avoided writing about this, as the prospects are too horrifying. Reactor 4 is not in cold shutdown. Secondary reactions are still happening, producing decay heat. It takes several weeks for the reactor to cool to the state where forced cooling is not needed. An electric power supply is absolutely necessary during this period. There may be no way of safely shutting down a nuclear power plant without outside electricity or functioning diesel generators.
The Fukushima nuclear disaster happened because of a loss of electric power. The earthquake caused a SCRAM of all reactors. The tsunami flooded the backup diesel generators. Connection to the power grid was also lost, likely because of the earthquake. Three reactors reached meltdown. All of these efects can happen in Zaporizhia, if the power plant comes under heavy shelling. The latest incidents and the disinformation from Kiev solidify my belief that Ukraine cannot be allowed to exist as an independent state.
-While the world is creeping closer toward a DefCon 1 exchange with every passing day, should Russia launch tomorrow there will be no way of knowing just how many warheads and ICBMs Putin is letting loose (not that he needs all that many). The reason is because on Monday, Russia informed the US that it is temporarily suspending American inspections of its nuclear weapons sites under the 2010 Treaty on Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms (New START). "On August 8, 2022, the Russian Federation officially informed the United States via diplomatic channels that our country is temporarily exempting its facilities from inspection activities under the New START Treaty," the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement, adding it also covers "facilities that can be used for demonstrations under the treaty.” According to Anadolu, the statement stressed that the measures had a "temporary character" but everyone knows there is nothing more permanent in this world than a "temporary" government mandate.
-Russia’s Baltic exclave of Kaliningrad has been struggling with quotas imposed by the European Union for sanctioned goods that it can import across Lithuania from mainland Russia or Belarus, the region’s governor admitted. Lithuania infuriated Moscow in June by banning the land transit of goods such as concrete and steel to Kaliningrad after EU sanctions on them came into force, Reuters reported.
-The leaders of Estonia and Finland want fellow European countries to stop issuing tourist visas to Russian citizens, saying they should not be able to take holidays in Europe while the Russian government carries out a war in Ukraine.
-The Chinese military said its drills around Taiwan will continue on Monday, despite initial plans announced last week that they would last until mid-Sunday. They were launched in response to a visit to the island by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. The training on Monday will take place in the sea and airspace near the self-governed island, and will focus on anti-submarine and amphibious assault operations, a statement released by China’s Eastern Theater Command said. Monday’s prolongation of the exercises near Taiwan is the second announced by the People’s Liberation Army in as many days. The initial plan was to wrap up the training around noon on Sunday.
-Beijing has suggested that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s (D-California) Taiwan visit may have been part of a ploy by the US aimed at creating a pretext to deploy more of its military to the region. In a statement made during his visit to Bangladesh and published on Sunday, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said that “there are signs that the United States is trying to repeat its old tricks.” The diplomat clarified that Washington has a history of “creating a problem first, and then using it to realize its own strategic plans” elsewhere in the world.
-The CIA’s shift of focus to “great power competition” with China means that “money and resources will be increasingly shifted” away from counterterrorism (CT), the spy agency’s second-highest ranking officer has apparently disclosed. Deputy Director David Cohen reportedly broke the news to leaders of the agency's CT branch at a meeting held some weeks ago behind closed doors, the Associated Press claimed on Monday, citing anonymous sources. He apparently assured officials that fighting terrorists would remain a CIA priority to a significant degree, the report added. The entire US intelligence community has been pivoting towards China under the current administration, with hundreds of officers reassigned, including from counterterrorism, according to the news agency. The CIA is also moving in that direction, hiring new officers fluent in Chinese and teaching the language to current employees, the AP said.
-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s "surprise" trip to Taiwan last week should be "Exhibit A" as to why interventionism is dangerous, deadly, and dumb. Though she claimed her visit won some sort of victory for democracy over autocracy, the stopover achieved nothing of the sort. It was a pointless gesture that brought us closer to military conflict with zero benefits. As Col. Doug Macgregor said of Pelosi’s trip on a recent episode of Tucker Carlson Tonight, "statesmanship involves advancing American interests at the least cost to the American people. None of that is in play here... Posturing is not statesmanship." Pelosi’s trip was no outlier. Such counterproductive posturing is much celebrated by both parties in Washington. Neoconservative Senators Bob Menendez and Lindsey Graham were thrilled with Pelosi’s stop in Taipei and used it as a springboard to push for new legislation that would essentially declare war on China by declaring Taiwan a "major non-NATO ally." The "one China" policy that, while perhaps not perfect, has kept the peace for more than 40 years is to be scrapped and replaced with one sure to provoke a war. Who benefits? Foolishly taking the US to the brink of war with Russia over Ukraine is evidently not enough for Washington’s bipartisan warmongering class. Risking a nuclear war on two fronts, with both Russia and China, is apparently the only way for Washington to show the rest of the world it’s serious.
"The drunken man in a bar challenging everyone to a fight is not tough. He’s foolish."
-The US Navy wants to persuade Americans drowning in debt to join by offering to pay off their student loans with enlistment bonuses as high as $50,000. Recruits who are willing to ship out by September 30 and meet other requirements will be eligible for as much as $65,000 in loan repayments, bringing their total bonus potential to $115,000, the Navy announced on Saturday. The offer applies to new sailors and to veterans who seek to return to service and who didn’t receive a bonus for their first enlistment.
-The United States will provide an additional $4.5 billion (£3.7 bn) to Ukraine’s government, bringing its total budgetary support since Russia’s February invasion to $8.5 billion (£7 bn), the US Agency for International Development has announced. The funding, coordinated with the US Treasury Department through the World Bank, will go to the Ukraine government in tranches, beginning with a $3 billion (£2.5 bn) disbursement in August, USAid, the Agency for International Development, said.
-The Pentagon has unveiled the latest billion dollar slice of US military aid to Ukraine. The main items are more ammunition for the 16 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) the US has sent, as well as new missiles for the National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System (NASAMS), a thousand Javelin anti-tank missiles, and hundreds of Swedish made AT4 shoulder launched anti-tank systems.
-The US will participate in war games with the Indian military in an area of India that is less than 62 miles away from the country’s disputed border with China, known as the Line of Actual Control (LAN). The drills will be held from October 18-31 and will be the eighteenth iteration of annual exercises between the two militaries known as Yudh Abhyas, which is Hindi for "war practice." They will be held in the Auli area of the Indian state of Uttarakhand in the Himalayas mountain range. The Yudh Abhyas drills are meant to train for fighting in high altitudes. The last iteration of the exercises was held in the mountains of Alaska in October 2021. Tensions have been high between India and China in the Himalayas since June 2020, when clashes in the Galwan Valley killed 20 Indian troops and four Chinese soldiers. Since then, China and India have been engaged in talks to reduce tensions, but they have also reinforced their militaries along the LAN.
-Warsaw continues to carry out an apparent attempt to “reclaim” parts of Ukraine in accordance with its “far-reaching plans” for the country, Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) said in a statement posted on Monday. According to Moscow, Poland is not only setting up a scenario to deploy its “peacekeeping” forces to the western parts of Ukraine, but is also trying to establish control over promising sectors of the Ukrainian economy, first and foremost – agriculture.
-At least a third of Germans on low incomes may not be able to pay increasingly high energy bills, the German Tenants’ Association (DMB) has warned, urging the government to make changes to housing programs. “That’s a hell of a lot of people,” Lukas Siebenkotten, the DMB’s chief, told newspaper Der Tagesspiegel on Sunday. “We’re talking about millions here.” Siebenkotten urged the government to allow more people to claim housing benefits in the wake of rising energy prices. “Tenants must also be protected from the termination of contracts if they cannot make increased advance payments,” he said.
-Russia announced on Friday that it conducted an airstrike against a group of US-backed militants in Syria near al-Tanf, a US military base located in the south of the country. Russia said it targeted Liwa Shuhada al-Qaryatayn (ShQ), a group that has fought against the government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Moscow said the Russian Aerospace Forces "identified and destroyed" a group of ShQ militants. US officials told CNN in June that they didn’t believe Russia’s reasoning for the initial strike and that Moscow was instead trying to "send a message" that it can conduct such an operation without retaliation. Either way, these incidents highlight the danger of the US military presence in Syria, where it maintains an occupation force of about 1,000 troops.
-CBS has censored its own documentary investigative reporting after an avalanche of pushback from supporters of Ukraine and its military. The segment highlighted that tons of weaponry shipped from the United States to the country's military has gone missing, and sounded the alarm as billions in dollars more have been pledged by the Biden administration. "CBS partially retracted a documentary in which it said that shipments of weapons to Ukraine from the US had been going missing," Insider reports Monday. "CBS tweeted on Monday that it had removed a a video promoting the documentary that included a months-old quote saying most aid was not making it to Ukraine's front lines." Below is the deleted tweet, with the offending line of "30% of it [US-supplied arms and munitions] reaches its final destination."
-«Из-за высоких потерь режим Зеленского принимает меры по восполнению некомплекта личного состава украинских формирований в районе боевых действий в Донбассе. Так, принято решение о досрочной отправке на передовую мобилизованных граждан, начавших подготовку в учебном центре 72-й механизированной бригады в городе Белая Церковь Киевской области. Вместе с ними направляются и находившиеся в госпиталях раненые, не дожидаясь завершения ими полного курса реабилитации после ранений»
Translation: “Due to heavy losses, the Zelensky regime is taking measures to replenish the shortfall in the personnel of Ukrainian formations in the combat zone in Donbass. Thus, a decision was made to send mobilized citizens to the front line ahead of schedule, who began training at the training center of the 72nd mechanized brigade in the city of Belaya Tserkov, Kyiv region. Together with them, the wounded who were in hospitals are also sent, without waiting for them to complete the full course of rehabilitation after injuries."
-"The head of the IAEA, Rafael Grossi, on Saturday expressed concern about the shelling of the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant. According to him, military actions that put the safety of the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant at risk are "completely unacceptable and must be prevented at any cost." Grossi stressed that he is ready to lead the mission of IAEA experts on safety, protection and safeguards at nuclear power plants. "Ukrainian troops have already made several attempts to attack the territory of the nuclear power plant several times since the beginning of the special operation. The last one occurred on August 5. As a result of several artillery shelling, a fire broke out at the scene, two power lines necessary for the operation of power units were broken. At the nuclear power plant, part of the equipment of power unit No. 3 was de-energized, the generated capacity of power unit No. 4 was reduced. During the special operation, the Russian military took control of the Kherson region and the Azov part of the Zaporozhye region. In both regions, new administrations have been formed, Russian TV channels and radio stations are broadcasting, and trade ties with Crimea are being restored. The regions have announced plans to become part of Russia."
-The White House on Monday called on Russia to “return full control” of the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant near Energodar to the Kiev authorities. Meanwhile, the Russian Defense Ministry accused Ukrainian forces of “nuclear terrorism” for bombarding the Russian-held facility twice since Friday. “Fighting near a nuclear plant is dangerous,” White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters aboard Air Force One on Monday, flying with President Joe Biden to Kentucky to tour areas damaged by flooding. “We continue to call on Russia to cease all military operations at or near Ukrainian nuclear facilities and return full control to Ukraine,” Jean-Pierre added. “We are also aware of the reports of mistreatment of the staff and we applaud the Ukrainian authorities and operators for their commitment to nuclear safety and security under trying circumstances.”
-Norway on Monday announced that due to an 'uncertain and demanding situation' over sky-high electricity prices - caused by low water levels at hydroelectric stations (in what they refer to as a "weather-dependent power supply"), as well as the "dramatic situation in Europe" regarding Ukraine, the government will be limiting electricity exports "when the water level in the reservoirs drops to very low levels."
-"Russia and China just solidified the most important partnership in modern world history. Their goal is to re-order the global power center away from global elites at the WEF. All of this as China prepares for the reunification of Taiwan."
-North Korea has said it is willing to send 100,000 "volunteer" troops to help Vladimir Putin execute the ongoing war in Ukraine, Business Insider has reported, citing Channel One Russia. Russian military pundit Igor Korotchenko made the claim to the state broadcaster, saying further that the DPRK military could provide a "wealth of experience with counter-battery warfare." "If North Korea expresses a desire to meet its international duty to fight against Ukrainian fascism, we should let them," Korotchenko was also quoted in New York Post as saying.
-The leader of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad’s (PIJ) Southern Gaza division, Khaled Mansour, was killed last night, Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced on Sunday. This comes two days after the head of the militant group’s northern division, Taysir al-Jabari, was taken out. According to the Israeli military, the death of Mansour completes the neutralization of the whole PIJ leadership. In a Twitter post, the Israeli military said that Mansour, who was “responsible for dozens of terrorist attacks against Israeli civilians and soldiers,” was targeted and killed by IDF aircraft.
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