*** MILITARY SITUATION ***
The Russian's spot a group of Ukrainian scouts moving at night in the dense pine forest near the Izyum front. They didn't make it:
It was a hot night in the Russian rear:
Nova Khakova - bridge targeted again, weak confirmation (blurry video), 10 hits reported. @DunGroanin, I don't recommend buying this one
Stakhanov - small ammo dump, photo confirmation
Kerch Bridge - air defense active, strong confirmation (video), possibly shot down an unarmed drone
Timonovo, Belgorod - huge open air ammo dump, hours of secondary explosions. Strong confirmation (multiple videos)
Stary Oskol, Belgorod - airbase, weak confirmation (nighttime video of raging fire, location hard to confirm), impossible to guess at damage/losses
Sevastopol - Belbek Airbase, weak confirmation (nighttime video, local telegram channels reporting 4 explosions) plus some breaking chatter about Sevastopol proper being hit
I doubt the Ukrainians could mounts these attacks. Zel has the look of a man who knows his time is nearly up. Looks like British and US forces are getting more directly involved in the conflict.
*** ECONOMIC & POLITICAL ***
-Ukraine’s military intelligence believes that Russia is planning a “provocation” at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant tomorrow. “The occupiers announced an unexpected ‘day off’ at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power station. On 19 August, only operative personnel will be at the ZNPP. Entry to all other employees will be closed,” defence intelligence of Ukraine tweeted. Russia has warned it may shut down the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant – the largest nuclear reactor in Europe – if Ukraine continues to shell the facility – a claim Kyiv has denied.
-The deadly conflict in Ukraine has the potential to “demonstratively” put an end to Western hegemony globally, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has claimed. In an interview with German online magazine Tichys Einblick, published on Thursday, Orban said he expects the European Union to emerge weaker in the global arena once the fighting in Ukraine is over. The Hungarian leader argued that the West is incapable of winning the conflict militarily, and that the sanctions it has imposed on Moscow have failed to destabilize Russia. To make matters worse, the punitive measures have spectacularly backfired on the EU, he said. Orban also noted that a “large part of the world” is clearly not getting behind the US when it comes to Ukraine. He pointed to “the Chinese, Indians, Brazilians, South Africa, the Arab world, Africa” as regions not supporting the Western line on the conflict.
-The flow of new international support for Ukraine has dried up in July. No large EU country like Germany, France or Italy, has made significant new pledges. However, the gap between committed and disbursed aid has narrowed.
-China “highly appreciates” Russian President Vladimir Putin’s critical remarks about US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s “provocative” visit to Taiwan, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin said on Wednesday. Wang noted that Putin’s position reflected the high-level strategic cooperation between China and Russia and was a manifestation of the “consistent and firm mutual support” of the two countries on issues relating to each other’s key national interests. The spokesman also pointed out that, after Pelosi’s trip to Taipei, over 170 countries have reiterated their commitment to the “One China” principle and have supported Beijing in its attempts to defend China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
-Russia has sent a note of protest to the Estonian Foreign Ministry in connection with the dismantling of the monument to the Soviet T-34 tank and six other monuments in Narva, Ivan Nechayev, Deputy Director of the Russian Foreign Ministry's information and press department said in a commentary distributed on Thursday. The diplomat drew attention to the fact that contrary to the mass protests of local residents, the Estonian authorities dismantled this monument and six others, including the memorial plates on the central Petrovskaya Square, the monument to the Hero of the Soviet Union Igor Grafov, the obelisk of the Red Army soldiers, the memorial to the landing troops in Merikule and two monuments in Narva-Joesuu town on August 16 in the outskirts of Narva."
-Russia's defense ministry announced Thursday that it has deployed fighter planes equipped with cutting edge hypersonic missiles to its Baltic region exclave of Kaliningrad, which a statement said will provide "additional measures of strategic deterrence." The statement detailed that three MiG-31 fighters armed with Kinzhal hypersonic missiles have landed at the Chkalovsk air base in Kaliningrad Oblast. The defense ministry emphasized that the warplanes will be put on "round-the-clock alert" - at a moment tensions with Ukraine's powerful Western backers like the United States continue to soar. On a few alleged occasions over the last six months of war in Ukraine, Russia has been accused of launching hypersonic missiles on Ukrainian targets; however, the Pentagon has downplayed that it's not a gamechanger. But such an intentionally publicized move as placing hypersonic missile armed MiG fighters on "alert" at Russia's Baltic outpost is an escalatory move aimed at NATO and Ukraine's Western backers which have been ramping up longer-range missile and weapons shipments to Kiev. Kaliningrad borders NATO members Poland and Lithuania, both of which will see this move as a severe threat to their national security.
Three Mig-31 supersonic interceptor aircraft carrying Kinzhal air-to-surface hypersonic missiles have been deployed to Russia’s western exclave of Kaliningrad, the country’s Defense Ministry has announced. On Thursday, the planes were relocated to Chkalovsk airfield in Kaliningrad Region as part of “additional strategic deterrence measures,” the ministry explained. During their flight, the Mig-31s worked out interactions with Russian forces stationed in the area, as well as the naval aviation of the Baltic Fleet, it added. The planes will be placed on 24/7 combat duty in Kaliningrad, according to the Defense Ministry.
Russia told us the hypersonics were unstoppable. So what does it matter if they are launched from Kaliningrad or Moscow? Range. Kaliningrad is like having the weapons in NATO's bedroom, screwing their wife.
-МОСКВА, 18 авг — РИА Новости. Киев значительно занижает свои потери в спецоперации России, среди украинских военных уже числятся около 200 тысяч погибших, заявил РИА Новости один из лидеров запорожского ополчения, командир отряда "Троя" Владимир Новиков с позывным "Алабай". "Это мое сугубое мнение, думаю, порядка 200 тысяч "двухсотых" (погибших. — Прим. ред.) и больше 300 тысяч раненых, которые уже не вернутся в строй", — сказал Новиков. По словам командира отряда, он использует различные источники информации. "По совокупности информации могу озвучить такие цифры", — отметил он.
Translation: MOSCOW, August 18 - RIA Novosti. Kyiv significantly underestimates its losses in the Russian special operation, among the Ukrainian military there are already about 200 thousand dead, one of the leaders of the Zaporozhye militia, the commander of the Troy detachment, Vladimir Novikov, with the call sign Alabai, told RIA Novosti. "This is my personal opinion, I think about 200 thousand" two hundredth "(dead. - Approx. ed.) and more than 300 thousand wounded who will not return to duty," Novikov said. According to the commander of the detachment, he uses various sources of information. "Based on the totality of information, I can voice such figures," he said.
-Ukraine’s European backers may be about to put the country on an “ammunition diet”, an American military analyst has claimed in an interview with Germany’s Der Spiegel. Michael Kofman said these nations may already have reached their limit in terms of weapons supplies to Kiev. In an article published on Tuesday, Kofman was quoted as saying it is not in the Ukrainian military’s best interests to bide its time, as the weather will soon begin to worsen, making any counteroffensive more difficult to pull off. On top of that, according to the US expert, Russian troops could use a hiatus to regroup and “solve some of their personnel problems.” He noted that time would be on Kiev’s side if Western support was unlimited. However, that is likely not the case, and the Ukrainian leadership is well aware of this, Kofman suggested. He added that the “Ukrainians are apparently quite concerned about for how long they can expect further support, especially from the Europeans.” The analyst went on to suggest that Kiev’s European backers may already have “given Ukraine most of the weapons they are ready to give.”
-Starting a week ago the United States led the way at a United Nations Security Council special meeting in calls for a demilitarized zone around Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, but on Thursday Russia's defense ministry has again rejected such a possibility. Starting weeks ago Ukraine said that some 500 Russian troops occupied the nuclear power plant, which is Europe's largest. Amid tit-for-tat accusations of shelling on the facility and thus putting the sensitive site in danger of a nuclear incident, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Grossi said this week he stands ready to lead a delegation in person to inspect the plant. However, it's being reported that the Russian side has rejected this possibility, saying such a mission would be too dangerous as Ukraine is shelling it. At the same time, on Thursday, Russia's defense ministry has issued its most ominous and alarming claim yet regarding the deteriorating situation at Zaporizhzhia, alleging that Ukraine is currently engaged in plotting a "false flag provocation" and that any resulting catastrophe will be immediately blamed on Moscow. Taking the allegation further, a military spokesman even named a date, Friday Aug.19, as the day it's expected to happen according to the Kremlin. "Russia will be blamed for the man-made catastrophe," the MoD spokesman warned. However, Ukraine and its Western allies have charged that it is in reality Russian troops that are using the plant as a nuclear shield and so bear responsibility for any potentially disastrous consequences.
-A more likely scenario for U.S. intervention would come about if the Ukrainian army began to collapse and Russia seemed likely to win a major victory. In that case, given the Biden administration’s deep commitment to preventing that outcome, the United States could try to turn the tide by getting directly involved in the fighting. One can easily imagine U.S. officials believing that their country’s credibility was at stake and convincing themselves that a limited use of force would save Ukraine without prompting Putin to use nuclear weapons. Alternatively, a desperate Ukraine might launch large-scale attacks against Russian towns and cities, hoping that such escalation would provoke a massive Russian response that would finally force the United States to join the fighting. The final scenario for American involvement entails inadvertent escalation: without wanting to, Washington gets drawn into the war by an unforeseen event that spirals upward. Perhaps U.S. and Russian fighter jets, which have come into close contact over the Baltic Sea, accidentally collide. Such an incident could easily escalate, given the high levels of fear on both sides, the lack of communication, and the mutual demonization.
-On Tuesday Russian President Vladimir Putin weighed on on major security issues ranging from the ongoing war in Ukraine to China-US tensions over Taiwan in a televised speech. Speaking before defense officials and regional think tank analysts at the Tenth Moscow Conference on International Security, among the most notable assertion of his is that NATO is moving "further east". Within days prior to launching the Feb.24 invasion of Ukraine, he gave what was essentially a war speech emphasizing that urgent military action was needed to prevent NATO's further expansion into Ukraine. But it seems that in his latest comments Tuesday, he sees the threat of NATO influence at work as far as southeast Asia as well. In the fresh remarks, Putin continued his prior theme of a turn from unipolar to multi-polar world order, based on the decline of the United States and West.
-Ukrainian government officials are teasing the likelihood of more strikes and 'sabotage operations' inside Russian controlled Crimea, after having cheered on at least two recent large explosions at military sites. Kiev officials, including President Volodymyr Zelensky himself, are reportedly warning that all civilians should "stay away from potential targets" in Crimea. This follows the Kremlin on Tuesday admitting for the first time that the recent explosions were the "result of sabotage". Following the latest incident, the Russia's defense ministry said, "On the morning of Aug. 16, as a result of an act of sabotage, a military storage facility near the village of Dzhankoi was damaged." This is the clearest indication yet that in addition to the Dzhankoi munitions depot blast, the prior Aug.9 massive explosion at Russia's Saky airbase, some 200km deep inside, was also a Ukrainian attack - as some Ukrainian officials had already leaked to US newspapers. The Saky airbase incident had also set off discussion over whether US-supplied HIMARS rockets could reach that far. If indeed there were foreign weapons systems behind it, it could set the US and Russia on a dangerous path of escalation and collision as the proxy war could fast develop into direct confrontation between superpowers in Ukraine.
-Taiwan’s military has responded to a slew of nearby Chinese navy and air force drills by displaying its latest fighter jets to reporters and promising to respond to any attacks. Reporters were taken to the Hualien air base on Taiwan’s eastern coast on Wednesday and were shown a rare nighttime demonstration of the country’s most advanced jets, according to reports by Reuters and other media outlets. The F-16Vs took off on reconnaissance and training flights, and ground crews demonstrated how they quickly load weapons, including US-made Harpoon anti-ship missiles, onto the warplanes.
-The explanation for US natural gas prices at 14-yeah highs, in our view, are concerns that increasing domestic and European demand for the fuel will result in tighter US supplies ahead of the winter season. A lot of NatGas has been pumped to power plants this summer as cooling demand surged, sending stockpiles for the coldest months of the year below 10% of normal levels. Traders and research desks also focus on reopening Freeport LNG Terminal in Quintana, Texas, in October, which would boost US Gulf exports to Europe and result in even tighter US supplies. On Thursday morning, New York NatGas futures are up more than 2% to $9.30/mmbtu after the EIA reported a smaller-than-expected injection to domestic winter reserves. Prices are steadily approaching $10/mmbtu and are currently at the highest price since 2008.
-Several countries in the West are waiting for Kiev to surrender and think their problems will immediately be solved when it happens, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba claimed in an interview published on Tuesday. “I often get asked in interviews and while speaking to other foreign ministers: how long will you last? That’s instead of asking what else could be done to help us defeat Putin in the shortest time possible,” Kuleba said, noting that such questions suggest that everyone “is waiting for us to fall and for their problems to disappear on their own.” The foreign minister went on to suggest that some Western countries are ready to accept Ukraine’s surrender in the ongoing military conflict with Russia and have it concede some of its territories – something Kiev has repeatedly insisted it would never agree to. Last week, Mikhail Podolyak, an aide to President Zelensky, ruled out Kiev’s military defeat as a possible scenario and stated that it would fight “to the last Russian citizen in Ukrainian territory,” with the help of Western weapons which he says will be funneled into the country regardless of the cost. Podolyak also suggested that nobody would try to negotiate a truce with Russia at the expense of Ukraine, due to the reputation of President Zelensky for “not allowing any such talks behind his back.”
-Britain’s Royal Air Force is aiming to carry out a provocative action in Russian airspace, the Defense Ministry in Moscow has warned. The statement came after the UK requested permission for a reconnaissance plane to fly over Russia. On Tuesday, Russian military officials revealed that a “request has been lodged by the UK for the passing of a British reconnaissance plane RC-135 along a route which goes over the territory of the Russian Federation, among other countries.” The ministry emphasized that it deemed “this action to be a deliberate provocation.”
-Западные кураторы практически списали киевский режим со счетов и уже планируют раздел Украины, заявил представитель Службы внешней разведки генерал-полковник Владимир Матвеев на Московской конференции по международной безопасности."Очевидно, что Запад обеспокоен не судьбой киевского режима. Как видно из поступающей в СВР информации, западные кураторы уже практически списали его со счетов и вовсю занимаются разработкой планов по разделу и оккупации по крайней мере части украинских земель", — сказал он. Однако, по словам генерала, на кону стоит гораздо большее, чем Украина: для Вашингтона и его союзников речь идет о судьбе колониальной системы господства над миром.
Translation: MOSCOW, August 16 - Western curators have practically written off the Kyiv regime and are already planning the partition of Ukraine, Foreign Intelligence Service spokesman Colonel-General Vladimir Matveev said at the Moscow Conference on International Security. “Obviously, the West is not concerned about the fate of the Kyiv regime. As can be seen from the information received by the SVR, Western curators have almost written it off and are in full swing developing plans for the division and occupation of at least part of the Ukrainian lands,” he said. However, according to the general, much more is at stake than Ukraine: for Washington and its allies, it is about the fate of the colonial system of world domination.
-Finland has decided to limit the number of visas issued to Russians by 90% starting 1 September.
-Russia's Defense Ministry on Tuesday confirmed a rare act of what appears to be a Ukrainian sabotage operation in Crimea. This after video emerged online showing a series of explosions after a fire engulfed a munitions depot there. "On the morning of Aug. 16, as a result of an act of sabotage, a military storage facility near the village of Dzhankoi was damaged," the ministry said. "Damage was caused to a number of civilian facilities, including power lines, a power plant, a railway track as well as a number of residential buildings. There were no serious injuries," it added.
-The first grain ship to leave Ukraine since an internationally brokered deal to resume exports is approaching the Syrian port of Tartus after failing to offload its cargo in Lebanon, Reuters reported on Sunday, citing two shipping sources. Exports from Ukraine had been disrupted for months after Russia launched a military operation in the country. The Sierra Leone-flagged vessel Razoni left Ukraine’s Black Sea port of Odessa on August 1, carrying 26,000 tons of corn. According to the tracking website MarineTraffic.com, the ship is sailing in the eastern Mediterranean Sea between Cyprus and the Syrian coast. The Razoni previously docked in Mersin, Turkey on Thursday. The cargo was originally intended for Lebanon, but the buyer refused to accept it due to concerns over quality stemming from the long delay. The Ukrainian embassy in Beirut said on Monday that the shipping agent was looking for other options to offload the corn in Lebanon or elsewhere.
-Two former US judges have been ordered to pay $206 million in civil court damages for taking kickbacks from a builder of for-profit jails to send hundreds of children to his lockups. The Pennsylvania ex-jurists, Mark Ciavarella and Michael Conahan, must pay more than $106 million in compensatory damages and $100 million in punitive damages to nearly 300 of their victims, according to a ruling on Wednesday by a US District Court in Scranton, Pennsylvania. The two men were previously convicted on criminal charges in connection with their scheme, though Conahan was released to home-confinement last year because of the Covid-19 pandemic. Under the so-called “kids-for-cash” scandal, Ciavarella and Conahan shut down a county-operated juvenile detention center and took $2.8 million in bribes from the developer of two for-profit jails, PA Child Care and Western PA Child Care. According to testimony in the civil lawsuit, the judges sent children as young as 8 to the jails, in many cases for such petty offenses as jaywalking or smoking on school grounds.
No comments:
Post a Comment