Russia/Ukraine War Update - June 23rd, 2022

 *** MILITARY SITUATION ***

The Russians seem to have completed a ground envelopment of the Toshkivka pocket and have surrounded all the forces in the Zolote area. They also seem to have broken out driving North behind Lysychans'k. It appears the Oil Refinery near Lysychans'k is on fire and may have been destroyed. The Ukrainian defensive forces in this area seem to have at least partially collapsed. Whatever is happening it seems the situation is going against the Ukrainians in the Severodonetsk AO very fast.

Russian forces continued efforts to push north toward Lysychansk along the west bank of the Siverskyi Donets River and made measured gains south of Lysychansk on June 22. Head of Luhansk Oblast Administration Serhiy Haidai stated that Russian troops are consolidating their positions in Toshkivka, Ustynivka, Pidlisne, and Myrna Dolyna, and are attacking Bila Hora, directly on the southeastern outskirts of Lysychansk.[8] Russian Telegram channel Rybar claimed that Russian forces took control of Rai-Oleksandrivka and Loskutivka, both 10 km south of Lysychansk.[9] Haidai additionally stated that Russian forces are trying to fix in place Ukrainian units in Borivske and Voronove (both within 5 km southeast of Severodonetsk) and are firing on Ukrainian positions in Synetskyi and Pavlohrad (western suburbs of Severodonetsk along the eastern bank of the Siverskyi Donets River).[10] Haidiai’s claim suggests that Ukrainian forces still control the area to the southwest of Severodonetsk along the eastern bank of the Siverskyi Donets River and are therefore not entirely encircled in the Severodonetsk-Lysychansk area. Russian forces continued street fights within Severodonetsk, presumably for control of the industrial zone.[11] Russian forces are moving to complete the encirclement of Ukrainian positions in Zolote and Hirske but likely have not captured these settlements as of June 22.[12]

Russian forces continued offensive operations towards Slovyansk from the southeast of Izyum and west of Lyman on June 22.[13] Spokesperson for the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense Oleksandr Motuzyanyk stated that unspecified elements of the Russian 1st Guards Tank Army, the 20th, 29th, and 35th Combined Arms Armies, 68th Army Corps, and unspecified Airborne Forces (VDV) are operating in the direction of Slovyansk.[14] Russian forces are reportedly fighting in the forests around Krasnopillya, about 20 km northwest of Slovyansk.[15]  Mayor of Slovyansk Vadym Lyakh stated that Russian forces directly shelled a micro-district of Slovyansk, which is the first attack directly on Slovyansk since early June.[16] Russian forces additionally shelled Ukrainian positions west of Lyman around Pryshyb, Sydorove, and Majaky.[17]

The boys at the pro-Ukrainian ISW always qualify Russian's gains against what they 'haven't' done yet. Like if they reported that the Russians took this town in the Ukraine, but have 'failed' to immediately move against Paris or New York and will likely 'not' be able to take Berlin 'quickly' from here either. History teaches us though - the Bocage warfare in Normandy after D-Day took 2 full months before the allies broke out into the open. During some periods it took days to move 100 yards with very heavy losses and the allied forces had almost complete air superiority and were bombing German positions daily. The farmland terrain, and fighting, in Eastern Ukraine is very similar.

-A television tower in the Ukrainian separatist-held city of Donetsk has been badly damaged by shelling and broadcasting has been interrupted, the local Donetsk news agency reported. The Petrovskiy television centre is still standing, but part of its equipment has been damaged, while some equipment has been moved out, the agency said.

-In a recent interview with Ukrainian outlet Hromadske, wounded Ukrainian soldiers said that Russian forces and weaponry significantly outnumber theirs. “There is one artillery shell of ours against about 20 of theirs … and I’m talking about only the bombardment artillery, I’m not even mentioning the cluster projectiles, which they deluge us with,” one soldier told the outlet.

-Ukraine has been pulling back on its use of Turkish Bayraktar drones (TB-2s), which were initially effective at stopping Russian armored advances in the Battle of Kyiv, but are now far less useful since Russia's defenses have come online. "They were very useful and important in the very first days, stopping those columns, but now that they’ve built up good air defenses, they’re almost useless," said one pilot, who goes by Moonfish.

-Front-line pilots in Ukraine are at odds with the country's chief of staff over the use of US-provided Gray Eagle strike drones, which the pilots say can be easily shot down by Russian air defenses according to Foreign Policy. "We are not advocating for the Gray Eagles," one pilot told the outlet, who added that Ukraine's military general staff are pushing for them. "There’s no good Air Force mind next to our chief of staff or commander who would say, speak up and say, hey, that’s B.S." "It’s very dangerous to use such expensive drones in our case, because of the enemy’s air defense," he continued, adding: "It’s not Afghanistan here." Both Ukrainian and American officials are increasingly concerned that Gray Eagles could be shot down by advanced Russian air defense systems. The attack drones are armed with Hellfire missiles that can hit targets only up to about 5 miles away, far less than the one-way kamikaze drones that the United States has provided to Ukraine. In just the past several weeks, Russia has beefed up air defenses on the border and inside Ukraine, said Samuel Bendett, an advisor with the CNA think tank. -Foreign Policy "Their systems are working on a more massive scale," said Bendett, referring to Russia's capabilities. "Their early warning radars are working. Their air defenses are working. So losing Gray Eagles is a real possibility to such a layered defense." That said, the pilots doubt the Gray Eagles would be likely to survive more than one or two missions, making the prospect of using the $10 million drones a bad idea.

-Russian forces are edging closer to seizing the last pocket of resistance in Ukraine’s eastern Luhansk region. Sievierodonetsk and its neighbouring city, Lysychansk, continue to be battered by intense Russian shelling. Luhansk’s governor, Serhiy Haidai, said on Wednesday that Russian forces were moving towards Lysychansk, targeting the buildings of police, state security and prosecutors.

-Dramatic footage has emerged from Russia of what appears to be a drone crashing into an oil refinery and setting off a fiery explosion in what could be an attack inside Russia’s borders. Video shared on social media showed the unmanned aerial vehicle crashing into the Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery, in Rostov, in what would be an embarrassing penetration of Russia’s air defence systems in its ongoing war in Ukraine.

-A Russian missile strike has left at least one person dead in the southern Ukrainian port city of Mykolaiv, according to its mayor, Oleksandr Senkevych. The attack caused several fires and damaged a number of buildings including a school, Senkevych said. Regional governor Vitaliy Kim said seven missiles had hit Mykolaiv.

-Reports are that the entire Russian fleet has left their ports in the Crimea.

The Guardian posted this picture in their Ukraine coverage today:

Ukrainian servicemen seen in Odesa while fighting Russian forces on 22 June

The problem is that there are no Russian forces in Odessa. But this next picture, correctly captioned this time, explains what's really going on:

Servicemen of the 126th Separate Territorial Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine take part in military exercises in Odesa

The Western media's war coverage is garbage.

*** ECONOMIC & POLITICAL ***

-Countries should ask the United States for help if they have any problems importing Russian food and fertiliser, a senior US official has said. “Nothing is stopping Russia from exporting its grain or fertiliser except to own policies and actions,” US State Department Bureau of Economic and Business Affairs Assistant Secretary, Ramin Toloui, said according to a transcript published on Wednesday. However he added that concerns had been raised about “so-called over compliance with sanctions.”

-Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov arrived in Iran on Wednesday to expand cooperation between the two nations in light of western sanctions. Russia’s foreign ministry posted a clip of Lavrov’s opening remarks during a meeting with Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi in which he said Moscow was adapting to what he called the west’s aggressive policies.

-British intelligence predicts that Russia’s momentum in its war in Ukraine will slow over the next few months, according to British prime minister Boris Johnson. “Our defence intelligence service believes, however, that in the next few months, Russia could come to a point at which there is no longer any forward momentum because it has exhausted its resources,” Johnson told a group of European newspapers.

-The G7 is also likely to discuss the fate of a Russian turbine blocked in Canada and blamed for reducing gas supplies to Germany, Canada’s natural resources minister said on Wednesday. “If you talk to the Germans, they are very, very concerned about” a decline in gas supplies allegedly caused by the missing turbine, Jonathan Wilkinson told Reuters. “I’m sure it’ll come up at least in the corridors of the G7 ... I wouldn’t hold my breath that we’re going to find a resolution before the end.” Russia’s state-controlled Gazprom has cut the capacity along the Nord Stream 1 pipeline to just 40% of usual levels in recent days, citing the delayed return of equipment being serviced by Germany’s Siemens Energy in Canada.

-Columbia Law School will advise Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy on war reparations. Ukraine has added to its growing arsenal of U.S. lawyers, tapping Washington, D.C.-based Allen & Overy partner Patrick Pearsall through Columbia Law School as a legal advisor to Zelenskiy on reparations issues.

-US home prices break $400K for the first time ever - but sales slump to a two-year low as soaring interest rates squeeze out first-time buyers. Median home prices in the US hit a record of $407,600 in May, new data show. But sales of existing homes slumped to a two-year low as mortgage rates rise. Sales pace slowed to annual rate of 5.41 million, down 8.6% from a year ago. High prices and rising rates are squeezing first-time buyers out of the market. Mortgage rates jumped the fastest since 1987 last week, to 5.78% on a 30-year

-POLIO is spreading in the UK for the first time in decades, officials claim. Health bosses urged Brits to check their children's jabs are up to date after picking up signs of the virus being passed between individuals. Experts have detected the same bug in London sewage samples since April – a clear signal of a community outbreak.

-A batch of seven German 155-millimeter self-propelled PzH 2000 howitzers have arrived in Ukraine, the German defense minister confirmed to lawmakers on Wednesday. She said Kiev pledged not to attack targets in Russia with the German arms.

-In a recent interview with Ukrainian outlet Hromadske, wounded Ukrainian soldiers said that Russian forces and weaponry significantly outnumber theirs.

“There is one artillery shell of ours against about 20 of theirs...and I’m talking about only the bombardment artillery, I’m not even mentioning the cluster projectiles, which they deluge us with,” one soldier told the outlet. Another soldier said, “We were going to the positions to replace a brigade. Our brigade, our company was coming. And our company was fired by tanks, planes, helicopters and missiles.”

Ukrainian forces have been pleading for increased Western military assistance as the war enters its fourth month.

-Chinese President Xi Jinping has eviscerated the US and EU for imposing sanctions on Russia, warning that weaponizing their financial position would bring disaster to people worldwide. “To politicize the global economy and turn it into one’s tool or weapon, and willfully impose sanctions by using one’s primary position in the international financial and monetary systems, will only end up hurting one’s own interests as well as those of others, and inflict suffering on everyone,” Xi said in his keynote speech at the BRICS Business Forum on Wednesday.

-With migrant encounters at the southern border continuing to set new records, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is asking all federal employees to consider volunteering for a 60-day summer stint along the sweltering frontier. A similar call for volunteers was made in March, but migrant traffic has continued to rise since then. Last week, Customs and Border Protection (CBP) announced the number of migrant encounters at the southern border in May was a record 239,416. The previous record was just set in April, and the May 2022 tally was a whopping 33% higher than May 2021. "As we continue to encounter large numbers of individuals along our southwest border, we are now, more than ever, in need of your assistance," says a five-page flyer on the DHS Volunteer Force program.

-It could take years for the UK to replace weapons that it has funneled to Ukraine amid the ongoing conflict with Russia, the chief of the defense staff, Admiral Tony Radakin, has admitted. He made the remarks on Wednesday as he spoke before a parliamentary committee. Replacing even less sophisticated weapons sent to Ukraine could take “several years” due to constraints on the UK’s industrial capacity. The “rate of expenditure” of weapons by the Ukrainian military and Britain’s capability to “backfill” them has already become “a significant issue,” Radakin said. “We are then talking in years, because you cannot whistle up with modern weapons a quick production line,” the admiral explained.

-Traces of the virus causing poliomyelitis have been found in sewage samples in north and east London, the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) said on Wednesday. The authorities believe the virus was derived from a live vaccine still used in some countries and brought to the UK by a traveler from abroad. While no incidents of community spread have yet been found, health officials warn that it is “likely.” The virus was identified as vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 (VDPV2) and was detected several times between February and May at the London Beckton Sewage Treatment Works in Newham. UKHSA officials say the virus samples are “closely related” but from different people, and that the virus has mutated twice already, suggesting community spread. Health officials are trying to locate individuals who may have been infected and say the overall risk to the public is “extremely low.” Britain was officially declared polio-free in 2003, but visitors from abroad sometimes carry the virus. If community spread is detected, it would be the first domestic polio infection in the UK since 1984.

-Britain’s foreign secretary, Liz Truss, said the UK “fully supports” Lithuania’s decision to ban the transit of Russian goods sanctioned by the EU through its territory.

-Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, said Russia and the US were exchanging official signals on the issue of American fighters in Ukraine, according to the Moscow state-owned news agency Ria.

-The Kremlin said the EU sanctions that led Lithuania to block the transit of some goods to the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad were “absolutely unacceptable”. Moscow was working on retaliatory measures in response to the “illegal sanctions” by the EU, it said. Russia’s foreign ministry said Moscow’s response to Lithuania’s ban would not be exclusively diplomatic but practical in nature.

-Finland’s armed forces chief, Gen Timo Kivinen, said his country was prepared for a Russian attack and would put up stiff resistance in the event that one should occur.

-Vladimir Putin has called for a strengthening of ties with countries from the BRICS group of emerging economies – Brazil, Russia, India, China South Africa– in the wake of western sanctions over Ukraine.

-Europe needs to prepare immediately for Russia to turn off all gas exports to the region this winter, according to the head of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol. He called on governments to work on reducing demand and keeping nuclear power plants open.

-BBC reports that one of the deadliest earthquakes in years rocked eastern Afghanistan early Wednesday, killing at least 1,000 people, injuring 1,500 more, and destroying hundreds of building structures. Taliban leader Hibatullah Akhundzada told state-run Bakhtar News Agency the earthquake was magnitude 6.1 and struck 27 miles from the south-eastern city of Khost around 0130 local time.