*** MILITARY SITUATION ***
Ukrainian forces are likely conducting a fighting withdrawal that may include pulling back from Lysychansk and Luhansk Oblast in the near future and which probably aims to force the Russian offensive to culminate prematurely. The Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) Ambassador to Russia Rodion Miroshnik and Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces began a large-scale withdrawal from Lysychansk towards Siversk, Kramatorsk, and Slovyansk on June 28. Ukrainian forces may continue the fighting withdrawal that began in Severodonetsk to Ukrainian strongholds around Siversk, Kramatorsk, and Slovyansk. The staunch but limited Ukrainian defense of Severodonetsk imposed high costs on the Russians despite new Russian tactics intended to limit Russian casualties. Kyiv could continue this approach until the Russian attack culminates or Ukrainian forces reach more defensible positions along a straighter line dotted with fortified cities and towns.
The remaining Russian forces in Severodonetsk will need to cross the Siverskyi Donets River into Lysychansk from Severodonetsk or its surrounding settlements to participate further in the Russian offensive. This movement could require some time since the Russians destroyed the three main bridges across the river near the city. Miroshnik claimed that Russian forces have already crossed the Siverskyi Donets River from Kreminna and are building bridgeheads for further attacks on Lysychansk from the north. If they are true, and Russian forces threaten to complete the cauldron by pushing from the north and southwest of Lysychansk, then Ukrainian forces will likely abandon Lysychansk as well and conduct a fighting withdrawal to more defensible positions. Russian forces that have engaged in continuous offensive operations in Severodonetsk will also require some time to restore combat capabilities before participating in an assault on northern or northeastern Lysychansk. An unnamed Pentagon official stated that Russian forces continue to endure significant losses in fights for small territorial gains, and Russian groups that fought in Severodonetsk likely lost personnel and equipment. The locations and strength of the Russian troops that seized Severodonetsk remain unclear at this time, however. A notable acceleration of Russian attacks from the south of Lysychansk or from across the Siverskyi Donetsk River would likely indicate that the Russians have completed a redeployment of forces from Severodonetsk.
-The Times spoke with an intelligence officer and two sergeants in the Ukrainian special forces elite Shaman battalion who claimed Kiev had conducted covert operations inside Russia. The officers said they successfully carried out raids involving explosions to sow confusion and dissent among Russians. One of the special operations officers explained the missions involved sabotage and explosives. "The most interesting missions are working behind enemy lines; planting explosives behind the front lines, beyond the border," he said. The second sergeant indicated the Shaman battalion’s raid behind enemy lines was successful. He claimed, "The Russians don’t know what happened, they often can’t believe we were there." The officers gave few details about their operations to The Times. There have been several explosions inside Russia since President Valdimir Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine on February 24. Kiev has not officially claimed responsibility for any attacks inside of Russia but has hinted it might be behind some of the explosions.
-Ukraine has tallied up the number of Russian missiles fired on Ukrainian cities since 24 February: 2,811.
-A naval mine was found near the second mooring area of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium's (CPC) Black Sea terminal, according to Bloomberg, citing the facility's press office and a statement from the port city of Novorossiysk, located on the Black Sea in southern Russia. The discovery of the sea mine near CPC's second mooring didn't shutter operations at the terminal. CPC's third mooring will continue to operate. Reuters said CPC accounts for "around 1% of global oil trade," and any disruption at the facility could impact crude oil prices. Bloomberg vessel-tracking data shows crude oil tanker "Prometheus Energy" is moored at the terminal. Following the discovery of the mine, Novorossiysk has declared a state of emergency in some areas of the Black Sea. It's believed the mine is from World War II and is expected to be disposed of in the coming days. CPC said on June 15 that minesweeping operations at the terminal would begin -- there's no further information on the device's origins.
-Russia’s ministry of defence has claimed that the fire in the shopping mall in Kremenchuk was caused by “the detonation of stored ammunition for western weapons”.
-An intelligence official confirmed that Ukrainian soldier casualties are on the rise. "Ukraine’s casualty rate, far lower than Russia’s in the first weeks of the war, is now approaching parity with the invading force,” he said.