Russia/Ukraine War Update - June 6th, 2022

 *** MILITARY SITUATION ***

-Russia struck Ukraine’s capital Kyiv with missiles early on Sunday for the first time in more than a month. A railway depot was hit in the eastern suburb of Dniprovsky. Five cruise missiles fired from the Caspian Sea were launched from Tu-95 bombers, one of which was intercepted, Ukraine’s air force said, in an attack that represented a change of approach on the part of Russian forces.

*** ECONOMIC & POLITICAL ***

-Russian President Vladimir Putin warned that Moscow will hit new targets if the west supplies Ukraine with long-range missiles. “We will strike at those targets which we have not yet been hitting,” Putin told Rossiya state television, without specifying what those targets were. The comments were made in response to a pledge from the US went through with the delivery of Himars rocket artillery that the White House promised last week.

-Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov’s visit to Serbia has been cancelled after countries around Serbia closed their airspace to his aircraft, according to local media reports. A senior foreign ministry source told the Interfax news agency that Bulgaria, North Macedonia and Montenegro had closed their airspace to the plane that would have carried Moscow’s top diplomat to Belgrade on Monday. “Our diplomacy has yet to master teleportation,” the source said.

-A Russian general, Maj Gen Roman Kutuzov, was killed in eastern Ukraine, a Russian state media journalist said on Sunday, adding to the string of high-ranking military casualties sustained by Moscow.

-Britain is to supply long-range rocket artillery to Ukraine, including a handful of tracked M270 multiple launch rocket systems, which can hit targets up to 80km (50 miles) away. UK defence secretary Ben Wallace said the decision to ship the rocket launchers was justified because “as Russia’s tactics change, so must our support to Ukraine”.

-Spain is also to supply Ukraine with anti-aircraft missiles and Leopard battle tanks in a step up of its military support to the country, according to government sources cited by newspaper El Pais. Spain will provide essential training to the Ukrainian military in how to use the tanks, according to the reports. Spain will also provide essential training to the Ukrainian military in how to use the tanks, according to the reports as cited by Reuters. Training would take place in Latvia, where the Spanish army has deployed 500 soldiers within the framework of Nato’s Enhanced Advanced Presence operation.

-Nato kicked off nearly a two-week US-led naval exercise on the Baltic Sea on Sunday with more than 7,000 sailors, airmen and marines from 16 nations, including Finland and Sweden whom aspire to join the military alliance. “It is important for us, the United States, and the other Nato countries to show solidarity with both Finland and Sweden in this exercise,” US Gen. Mark Milley, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said.

-Diesel prices have wrapped up four days of trading in which they are finishing far higher than they were at the start of the business week and have moved up faster than crude and gasoline prices. It’s a worrisome trend for consumers because it signals that once again, diesel is moving at a pace more bullish than that of the petroleum market as a whole. That it already has done so in recent months is evident in the gasoline-diesel spread seen on price signs outside of retail outlets, and it has a complex set of causes.

-Russian anti-aircraft forces have shot down dozens of Ukrainian weapons and are “cracking them like nuts,” said Russian president Vladimir Putin in an interview that aired on Saturday. “Russian news agency RIA, which first cited the comments, quoted Putin as responding to a question about US-supplied arms by saying Russia was coping easily and had already destroyed the weapons by the dozen,” Reuters reported.

-Top US General Mark Milley said on Saturday that the United States is determined to support Sweden and Finland as the countries pursue Nato membership, a statement underscored by his visit to the USS Kearsarge after it became the largest US warship ever to dock in Stockholm. “It’s important for us, the United States, and it’s important for the other Nato countries to show solidarity with both Finland and Sweden in this exercise,” Milley said ahead of Nato’s annual Baltic Sea naval manoeuvres.

-Western sanctions would not have an effect on Russia’s oil exports, said Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov on Saturday. Lavrov also predicted a significant increase in profits from energy shipments this year, Russian news agency Tass reported.

-Ukraine’s volunteer brigade announced the deaths of four foreign military volunteers fighting Russian forces and paid tribute to “their bravery, their memory and legacy”. The International Legion of Defence of Ukraine, an official volunteer brigade, announced the four men were from Germany, the Netherlands, Australia and France. They did not specify when or under what circumstances the deaths took place.

-Following on the heels of the Biden administration announcing it would send longer range rocket systems to Ukraine, the Kremlin has issued a veiled threat that if it's territory is hit it could strike back directly at the West. "One of President Putin’s closest allies has warned that Moscow could target western cities if Ukraine uses rocket systems supplied by the United States to carry out strikes on Russian territory," the UK Times is reporting. The dire warning was given by close top Putin ally and former president Dmitry Medvedev, who currently serves as the Russian security council deputy chairman.

"If, God forbid, these weapons are used against Russian territory then our armed forces will have no other choice but to strike decision-making centers," Medvedev warned in the new statements. That's when he suggested the following for the first time, marking a severe escalation of rhetoric:

"Of course, it needs to be understood that the final decision-making centers in this case, unfortunately, are not located on the territory of Kyiv" - with the suggesting being that those Western capitals supplying the advanced arms could come under attack in response.

Previously Russia has threatened to hit "decision-making centers" within Ukraine, such as Kiev and Lviv. These cities have been targeted on occasion, but rarely, throughout the war now in its fourth month. The US confirmed this past week that Ukraine would receive M142 high-mobility artillery rocket systems, which are medium-ranged, capable of striking targets some 50 miles away. President Biden on Tuesday stressed that "we're not going to send to Ukraine rocket systems that strike into Russia" - which the Kremlin acknowledged as a "rational" decision, while stilling condemning the transfer of the systems. Ukraine's government, meanwhile, has reportedly given Washington "assurances" that it will not uses US-supplied weaponry to target Russian territory, which Moscow has long made clear would mark severe violation of its 'red lines'.

-A Russian cruise missile “flew critically low” over the Pivdennoukrainsk nuclear power plant, in the south of the country, at about 5.30am, apparently heading for Kyiv. Ukraine’s nuclear energy company Energoatom said Russian forces “still do not understand that even the smallest fragment of a missile that can hit a working power unit can cause a nuclear catastrophe and radiation leak” in a statement on Sunday.