Russia/Ukraine War Update - June 4th, 2022

 *** MILITARY SITUATION ***

-Russia’s defence ministry said it shot down a Ukrainian military transport plane carrying weapons and munitions near the Black Sea port. Russian missiles also struck an artillery training centre in Ukraine’s Sumy region where foreign instructors worked, the ministry said. It also claimed another missile strike destroyed a “foreign mercenaries’” outpost in the Odesa region.

-Ukrainian forces have recaptured around 20% of the territory they lost in Sievierodonetsk since Russia’s invasion, according to Ukrainian officials.

-A Russian missile struck an agricultural building in the southern Ukrainian region of Odesa this morning, wounding two people, according to a local official. Serhiy Bratchuk, a spokesperson for the Odesa regional military administration, said on Telegram: "The morning in Odesa began with a missile strike. Strategic aviation aircraft of the Russian Federation launched a cruise missile attack on one of the districts of the Odesa region. A Ha-59 type missile hit an agricultural enterprise. According to preliminary information, two people were injured." A team is investigating the incident and rescuers have put out the resulting fire, he added. He also noted that several ships carrying cruise missiles continued to be in the Black Sea, adding that Russian forces were trying to strengthen their foothold on Snake Island.  

-Russian forces have combined airstrikes and massed artillery fires to bring its “overwhelming” firepower to bear in Donbas, the UK Ministry of Defence has said in its latest intelligence report released this morning. This combined use of air and artillery strikes has been a key factor in Russia’s recent tactical successes in the region, the report reads. Russian air activity remains high over contested ground in the Donbas with Russian aircraft conducting strikes using both guided and unguided munitions. Russian air activity has been “largely restricted to deep strikes using air and surface launched cruise missiles” to disrupt the movement of Ukrainian reinforcements and supplies, the report says. These strikes alone however have failed to have a meaningful impact on the conflict and Russian stocks of precision guided missiles are likely to have been significantly depleted as a result. After switching its focus to Donbas, Russian forces have been able to “increase its employment of tactical air to support its creeping advance, combining airstrikes and massed artillery fires to bring its overwhelming firepower to bear,” the ministry said. The combined use of air and artillery strikes has been a key factor in Russia’s recent tactical successes in the region. The increased use of unguided munitions has led to the widespread destruction of built-up areas in the Donbas and has almost certainly caused substantial collateral damage and civilian casualties.

-Russian forces are blowing up bridges across the Seversky Donets river to prevent Ukraine bringing in military reinforcements and delivering aid to civilians in the town of Sievierodonetsk, the governor of the Luhansk region said on Saturday.

Members of a foreign volunteers unit, which fights in the Ukrainian army, in Luhansk

A Russian Ka-52 'Alligator' attack helicopter flies near a heavily damaged building during Ukraine-Russia conflict in the town of Popasna in the Luhansk Region, Ukraine June 2, 2022

*** ECONOMIC & POLITICAL ***

-China on Thursday called on the US to stop trade talks with Taiwan after Washington and Taipei announced a new initiative aimed at increasing economic cooperation. The US and Taiwan announced the initiative on Wednesday, which marked the formal start of trade negotiations. Taiwan’s trade representative, John Deng, will head to Washington next month for the talks. The trade talks are the latest example of the US taking steps to boost informal relations with Taiwan. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said the US should "stop negotiating agreements with implications of sovereignty and of official nature, and refrain from sending any wrong signal to the ‘Taiwan independence’ separatist forces." Zhao also called on the US to stop selling weapons to Taiwan in response to comments from Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin.

-Russian gas producer Gazprom said its supply of gas to Europe through Ukraine via the Sudzha entry point was seen at 41.9 million cubic metres (mcm) on Saturday versus 42.1 mcm on Friday.

-Ukraine wants to strengthen its positions on the ground with the help of new weapons deliveries from the West before it resumes peace talks with Russia, Ukrainian negotiator David Arakhamia said. "Our armed forces are ready to use (the new weapons)...and then I think we can initiate a new round of talks from a strengthened position," he told Ukraine national television on Friday.

-French President Emmanuel Macron said it is vital that Russia is not humiliated so that when the fighting stops in Ukraine a diplomatic solution can be found, adding that he believed Paris would play a mediating role to end the conflict. Macron has sought to maintain a dialogue with Russian President Vladimir Putin since Moscow's invasion of Ukraine in February. His stance has been repeatedly criticised by some eastern and Baltic partners in Europe, as they see it as undermining efforts to pressure Putin to the negotiating table.

-In the latest salvo in an expanding world trade war, sanctions-battered Russia has announced it will limit the export of noble gases, a key ingredient in the manufacture of semiconductor chips. Through Dec. 31, any export of those gases will require special permission from the Russian government. According to Russia's trade ministry, Russia accounts for nearly a third of the world's supply of three such gases—neon, krypton and xenon. "We believe that we will have an opportunity to be heard in this global chain, and this will give us some competitive advantage if it is necessary to build mutually beneficial negotiations with our colleagues," Russian deputy trade minister Vasily Shpak told Reuters on Thursday. The Ukraine war has already taken a toll on the supply of noble gases. Via two companies—Ingas and Cryoin—Ukraine itself supplies half the world's neon. Both companies shut down in March. Neon is used in lasers during lithography, a part of the chipmaking process where patterns are carved into silicon. The Russian move promises to prolong a worldwide semiconductor supply crisis that's already wreaking havoc for a wide swath of industries that use the increasingly ubiquitous chips.   

-The Russian Ministry of Defense has accused Ukraine of staging war-movie style combat footage for the purposes of propaganda. The ministry also accused the British government of funding and aiding in the creation of the footage. Two allegedly staged clips were released by the ministry on Friday, along with a statement.

-Russia's Foreign Ministry said it was summoning the heads of US media outlets in Moscow to a meeting next Monday to notify them of tough measures in response to US restrictions against Russian media.

-Kremlin spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, has been speaking with reporters at his regular briefing, where he said Russia will continue its military “operation” in Ukraine until all its goals have been achieved. Referring to the Russian-controlled territories in Luhansk and Donetsk, Peskov said: One of the main goals of the operation is to protect people in the DNR and LNR. Measures have been taken to ensure their protection and certain results have been achieved. He also spoke about the meeting between the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, and the chair of the African Union, Senegal’s president Macky Sall, in Sochi later today.

The visit by Sall and the president of the African Union Commission to Russia has been planned “amid efforts from the presidency to contribute to de-escalation amid the war in Ukraine, and to free stocks of cereals and fertilisers, the blockade of which particularly impacts African countries”, a statement by Sall’s office read. The agenda of the meeting will include the “deep concern of the African continent about the growing food crisis and lack of fertilisers”, Peskov said. He added that Putin will give the Sengalese president an “exhaustive” explanation of what is really happening with Ukrainian grain.

-Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is leaning toward attending a summit of leaders from the Nato in late June to spur coordination with the West over Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Kyodo News reported, citing unnamed government sources.

-Lumber prices have been halved since the Federal Reserve embarked on its most aggressive interest rate tightening campaign in decades as the pandemic boom in housing slows. Lumber contracts trading on the CME crashed to $653 per thousand board feet, down 51% from a high in late February of $1,336. The decline in wood prices occurred about two weeks before the Fed began hiking interest rates in mid-March. The Fed is expected to continue raising rates this summer. Interest rate probabilities show the Fed could hike by 50bps at three of the next FOMC meetings to suppress consumption and get inflation under control ahead of the midterm elections. However, that's going to be a challenging task, which may cause a hard landing in the economy.

-Ukraine’s defence minister Oleksiy Reznikov has said he believed the Kremlin was trying to move the war into a “protracted phase” by building layered defences in occupied regions in the south of the country. “The Kremlin is trying to move the war into a protracted phase,” Reuters reports he told the Globsex 2022 Bratislava forum by video link. “Instead of advancing, the Russian armies are constructing layered defences” in southern occupied regions, primarily Kherson, he said. Reznikov also addressed the issue of potential Nato membership for Ukraine. The alliance is meeting to discuss its’ ten year strategy in June, and Reznikov said “Ukraine will be also part of the strategy, because we also are the part of eastern flank of Europe, the eastern flank of Nato countries, eastern flank of the EU. I think it will be a win-win situation for all countries,” Reznikov said, “if we are talking about the membership of Ukraine with Nato de facto not de jure, it could be the good idea in this strategy.”

-The UK has taken in fewer Ukrainian refugees per capita than all but one of 28 European countries, a Guardian analysis of official figures from across the continent has found.

-Most of the Ukrainian refugees in Poland are able to earn a living, the government believes, so it intends to cut its aid to them, an official announced on Monday. Four months of assistance is enough, according to a high-level politician from the ruling PiS party as cited by the media. Poland has taken in over 3.5 million people fleeing from Ukraine since the beginning of the Russian military operation in February. Warsaw offered a number of benefits, but is now planning to cut back. Starting this month, refugees will not receive free tickets for public transportation, and in July, many of them will no longer receive a daily allowance (around $9.33 per day) for food and housing. The decision was announced on Monday by Deputy Interior Minister Pawel Szefernaker during an interview with TVP Info. The official said the government will no longer pay Ukrainians who are able to provide for themselves. Exceptions will be made for people who have legitimate reasons to not get a job in Poland, like those with disabilities, pregnant women, or mothers taking care of multiple children.

-Chinese military pilots have reportedly been flipping the bird at their Canadian colleagues mid-air in what Ottawa labeled “unprofessional” behavior during a North Korea patrol mission.  Beijing jets were frequently flying as close as 20 to 100 feet from a Canadian plane, Canada’s Global News reported on Wednesday, citing sources familiar with the matter. The sources said Canadian pilots could “make eye contact” with their Chinese counterparts and sometimes saw “them raising their middle fingers.” The alleged gestures occurred during Operation Neon, Canada’s air mission to enforce international sanctions on North Korea.

-Switzerland’s government on Friday rejected a request by Denmark to send nearly two-dozen Swiss-made armored personnel carriers to Ukraine. Switzerland’s executive Federal Council confirmed the decision on Friday after Denmark requested Switzerland transfer 22 Swiss-made Piranha III wheeled armored personnel carriers, which Denmark had obtained and stored in Germany, to Ukraine.  

-Europe’s largest nuclear power plant, which is located in the Russian-occupied south-eastern Ukrainian region of Zaporizhzhia, is facing a critical shortage of spare parts, according to Ukraine’s military intelligence agency. The Zaporizhzhia plant has been occupied by Russian troops since shortly after Moscow launched its invasion, but the facility is still being operated by Ukrainian technicians.

-Two Reuters journalists were wounded and their driver killed after their car came under fire in eastern Ukraine, a spokesperson for the news agency said. The driver of the vehicle was killed and the two journalists “sustained minor injuries” while en route to the key eastern Ukrainian city of Sievierodonetsk, Reuters said in a statement.

-The head of the African Union, Sengalese president Macky Sall, urged Vladimir Putin to consider the suffering of African countries from food shortages caused by Russia’s military campaign in Ukraine. During a visit to Sochi, Sall said due to western sanctions against Russia “we no longer have access to grain from Russia and especially fertiliser”.

-The Belarusian president, Alexander Lukashenko, said Minsk was ready to discuss the possible transit of Ukraine’s grain via Belarus, with some “compromises”. Belarus will allow the transit of Ukraine’s grain to Baltic Sea ports if it is allowed to ship Belarusian goods from these ports, Lukashenko reportedly told the UN’s secretary general, António Guterres.

-The scale of destruction in Ukraine “defies comprehension”, the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) said in a statement to mark the 100th day of the conflict.

-The monkeypox virus is slowly spreading through two separate outbreaks in the US, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said, citing genetic sequencing. Cases worldwide surpassed 700 this week, many spotted in Europe among recent travelers to Africa or their contacts. During a Friday press briefing, the head of the CDC’s monkeypox response, Jennifer McQuiston, said viral samples collected in the US appeared to have more than one place of origin, suggesting there are multiple distinct outbreaks in the country. “It's not clear what all this means, but it's likely that within the last couple of years, there have been at least two different instances where monkeypox virus spilled over to people in Nigeria, from the animal that maintains it,” she said, adding that the pathogen “likely began to spread through person-to-person close contact, possibly intimate or sexual contact.” A total of 23 infections have been identified by US health officials in the latest cluster of cases, including one Florida resident who first tested positive in the UK. As of Friday, at least one case has been spotted in New York, Pennsylvania, Utah, Virginia, Washington state, California, Hawaii, Colorado, Illinois, and Massachusetts, according to the CDC. There have been no deaths to date.

-The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is analyzing more than 100 deaths that could be attributed to long Covid by looking at death certificates from across the country over the last two years, according to two people familiar with the matter. The National Center for Health Statistics, a division within the CDC, collects death certificates from states after they have been completed by a coroner, medical examiner or doctor. NCHS is now reviewing a batch of those files from 2020 and 2021. It’s unclear whether the people who died had underlying health issues, whether long Covid was the cause of their deaths or whether it was a contributing factor.

COVID CASES USA 7-DAY AVG
100,952 JUN 02 2022
16,243 JUN 02 2021