Russia/Ukraine War Update - June 11th, 2022 Weekend Edition

*** MILITARY SITUATION ***

  

Ukrainian TVD, Day 98-107

The first week & a half of June has seen the Russo-Ukrainian War escalate into a deadly attritional phase dominated by artillery duels and positional battles with little major change in the forward edge of the battle area.

Kharkiv OD

This remains a critical front and has become an unstable region over the past week. The RAF needs to expand its northern enclave to maintain pressure on Kharkiv & pin down UAF units still defending here. For the UAF it is unclear if they will have the combat power to renew their offensive to push remaining RAF units over the international border. At a minimum UAF forces in the Kharkiv metro area will be able to contain RAF activity to its present enclave.

Severodonetsk-Donetsk OD

The strategic importance of Severodonetsk has grown out of how the RAF & UAF have arrayed their forces in relation to each other to achieve a clear operational advantage relative to each sides war aims throughout the Donbas.  The RAF must secure the Severodonetsk Salient to achieve a true general breakout into the relatively undefendable terrain of western Donetsk. Penetrating the remaining UAF defenses on the Siverskyi Donets north of Slovyansk and expanding the Popasna Bulge shapes this.  Improved Russian artillery survivability tactics & VKS support to ground operations is allowing sustained Russian maneuver success. Improved artillery & VKS strikes against UAF troop concentrations & logistical infrastructure are facilitating RAF momentum.

Severodoentsk AO

Momentum has swung back in favor of the RAF in Severodoentsk, but the UAF is still holding their ground in the western part of the city, particularly in the industrial sector centered on the Azot Chemical Plant.  However, the UAF is struggling to keep its artillery units supplied, hindering their ability to deliver timely counter-battery fire against the Russians. With losses mounting the UAF will face a difficult choice in deciding to maintain the defense of Severodonetsk or pullback.

Zaporizhzhia OD

RAF & UAF activity in the Zaporizhzhia OD remains limited to localized attacks to improve tactical positioning. There are indications that both the RAF & UAF are preparing to renew offensive action in the Hulyaipole-Orikhiv area.

Odesa-Kherson OD

The UAF counteroffensive into northern Kherson has met with little success so far. Despite the significant number of forces allocated to the operation, UAF units were only able to establish an 8km wide & 10km deep lodgment on the east of the Inhulets River.  RAF units under the control of the 7th Guards Air Assault (Landing) Division have been able to successfully contain the breach in their NW defensive line and halt the Ukrainian advance for now. The UAF still have enough forces on hand to expand these lodgments.

Black Sea OTMO

The Russian blockade of Odesa continues. However, improved Ukrainian anti-ship capabilities have forced the majority of Black Sea Fleet surface activity to be pushed back 100km from the southern Ukrainian coast. The NW region of the Black Sea is now contested.

VKS & Naval cruise missile strike effects remain negligible for ordnance expended. Both the quantity of strikes against critical infrastructure & the overall accuracy of the missiles employed are not impeding the delivery of Western aid.

The Ukrainian Government Authorities have acknowledged the heavy toll current combat operations in the Donbas is having on UAF manpower. The UAF is reportedly losing 100-200 KIA and 400-500 WIA a day. The continued loss of a battalion equivalent a day will erode UAF overall combat effectiveness faster than it will the RAF, even with Russian force generation issues. The RAF cannot ignore growing resistance to coercive mobilization practices if it hopes to replace losses.

 

Retired recently arrived US M777 155mm Howitzer

There is a growing unevenness to support of Ukraine. Britain, Poland, Denmark, Czech Republic, Slovakia, and the Baltic States are the most supportive while Germany, France, Italy, & Hungary voice support but show little by way of their actions.

Tension continues to rise as a global food crisis appears likely due to the Russian blockade of Ukrainian ports & sanctions on Russian grain exports. Turkey intends to act as a mediator but not without its own suspicious activity in grain exports. Ukrainian refugees total 9.87+ million with 7.23+ million in countries bordering Ukraine, another 2.64+ throughout Europe. Internally displaced people throughout Ukraine are now at 6.76+ million (1.7+ million in east & 562K in south Ukraine).

While speaking to Russian entrepreneurs President Putin made clear his goal in Ukraine is to “restore” supposed “lost territory” in the same way Peter the Great did in his 21-year war with Sweden (Great Northern War, 1700-21).  This rhetoric is meant to justify 1) the historic right of Russia to wage war in the Ukraine to restore “New Russia” to the Motherland, 2) all and any means to accomplish this, 3) the length of time this may take, 4) greater sacrifice required by the Russian people to do this

The character of the war has turned more favorably toward Russia, a grinding attritional war of positional battles in which RAF ground forces can make steady incremental progress behind their advantage in artillery & close air support. The UAF will struggle to gain offensive parity or localized superiority in a war based off this character, as evident by the limited success of the northern Kherson counteroffensive, despite the UAF advantage in maneuver units.

Ukrainian troops are suffering massive losses as they are outgunned 20 to one in artillery and 40 to one in ammunition by Russian forces, according to new intelligence painting a bleak picture of the conflict on the frontline. There are now reports of desertions from the Ukrainian side.

Any way you count it, the figures are stark: Ukrainian casualties are running at a rate of somewhere between 6oo to 1,000 a day. One presidential adviser, Oleksiy Arestovych, told the Guardian this week it was 150 dead and 800 wounded; another, Mykhaylo Podolyak, told the BBC that 100 to 200 Ukrainian troops were being killed a day. It represents an extraordinary loss of human life and capacity for the defenders, embroiled in a defence of the eastern city of Sievierodonetsk that, this week, turned into a losing battle. Yet the city was also arguably a place that Ukraine could have retreated from to the more defensible Lysychansk across the Siverski Donets River, the sort of defensive situation that Ukraine has fared far better at. The sheer number – more than 20,000 casualties a month – raises questions about what state Ukraine’s army will be in if the war drags on into the autumn. That is true for Russians too, of course. But it is the invaders who already control large chunks of Ukraine, and they can pause the fighting with the territorial upper hand. Consider the figures in context. Ukraine’s army was 125,000 strong according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies – and there were a further 102,000 national and border guards in addition. Crude analyst estimates suggest that since the start of the war that figure could have doubled to an impressive 500,000.

-Ukrainian troops claim they have advanced in fierce street fighting in Sievierodonetsk but say their only hope of turning the tide is with more artillery to offset Russia’s massive firepower. Serhiy Haidai, Ukraine’s governor of Luhansk, said Ukrainian troops were “exhausting the enemy” in Sievierodonetsk.

-Ukraine’s defence ministry said it had struck Russian military positions in the southern Kherson region. The ministry said there was “a series of strikes on enemy bases, places of accumulation of equipment and personnel, and field depots around five different settlements in the Kherson region”. It has not been possible to independently verify these claims.

-Ukraine’s deputy head of military intelligence has said Ukraine is losing against Russia on the frontlines and is now almost solely reliant on weapons from the west to keep Russia at bay. “This is an artillery war now,” said Vadym Skibitsky, deputy head of Ukraine’s military intelligence. The frontlines were now where the future would be decided, he told the Guardian, “and we are losing in terms of artillery”.

And the pithy but always candid Andrei Martyanov:

*** ECONOMIC & POLITICAL ***

-China has “strongly condemned” Washington’s approval of a new multi-million dollar arms deal with Taiwan and has called upon the parties to cancel the arrangement, Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said on Thursday. The Pentagon’s Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) approved the $120 million package on Wednesday. It provides ship parts and logistical support to Taiwan and is the fourth round of sales since early 2021, when Joe Biden became US president. China has consistently warned the US against military cooperation with the island, which Beijing considers to be part of its territory.

-US sanctions against Russia are having a “huge” impact on the rising food and energy prices at home, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has conceded. Yellen was asked during the New York Times’ DealBook DC Policy Forum on Thursday if already soaring US gas prices would continue to increase. “It’s unlikely that gas prices are going to fall anytime soon,” Yellen replied. She later added that the issue is tied to global oil prices, which have also been rising. “Europe is trying very hard to free themselves from dependence on Russian oil, and our sanctions on Russia… are making a huge difference to food and energy prices,” Yellen said.

-Beijing will "not hesitate to start a war" if Taiwan declares independence, China's defence minister warned his US counterpart Friday, the latest salvo between the superpowers over the island. The warning from Wei Fenghe came as he held his first face-to-face meeting with US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin on the sidelines of the Shangri-La Dialogue security summit in Singapore. Beijing views democratic, self-ruled Taiwan as its territory and has vowed to one day seize the island, by force if necessary, and US-China tensions over the issue have soared in recent months. Wei warned Austin that "if anyone dares to split Taiwan from China, the Chinese army will definitely not hesitate to start a war no matter the cost", defence ministry spokesman Wu Qian quoted the minister as saying during the meeting.

-Western experts say that Russia, the largest of the seven countries surrounding the Arctic, is behind the militarization in the mineral-rich region, which supplies 20% of Russia’s GDP. For the past decade, the Kremlin has been revamping shuttered Soviet bases, forming a necklace of dozens of defensive outposts (by some counts upwards of 50) from the Barents Sea to territories near Alaska, and building new facilities like the ultra-modern Trefoil, its northernmost base that became fully operational last year. The U.S. and NATO have looked on in consternation as Russia has established a new “Arctic command” and four new Arctic brigades, refurbished airfields and deep-water ports, and keeps launching mock military attacks on Nordic countries in between jamming GPS and radar during NATO exercises. It has also, according to the U.S. State Department, been trying out “novel weapon systems” in the Arctic.

-The consumer price index rose 8.6% in May from a year ago, the highest increase since December 1981. Core inflation excluding food and energy rose 6%. Both were higher than expected. Surging food, gas and energy prices all contributed to the gain, with fuel oil up 106.7% over the past year. Shelter costs, which comprise about one-third of the CPI, rose at the fastest 12-month pace in 31 years. The rise in inflation meant workers lost more ground in May, with real wages declining 0.6% from April and 3% on a 12-month basis. Inflation accelerated further in May, with prices rising 8.6% from a year ago for the fastest increase since December 1981, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. The consumer price index, a wide-ranging measure of goods and services prices, increased even more than the 8.3% Dow Jones estimate. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, so-called core CPI was up 6%, slightly higher than the 5.9% estimate. On a monthly basis, headline CPI was up 1% while core rose 0.6%, compared with respective estimates of 0.7% and 0.5%.

-US consumer sentiment plunged in early June to the lowest on record as soaring inflation continued to batter household finances. The University of Michigan’s preliminary June sentiment index fell to 50.2 from 58.4 in May, data released Friday showed. The figure was weaker than all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists which had a median forecast of 58.1. Inflation expectations, which the Federal Reserve watches closely, also moved higher early this month and 46% of respondents attributed their negative views to persistent price pressures. Just 13% expect their incomes to rise more than inflation, the lowest share in almost a decade. “Throughout the survey, consumers signaled strong concerns that inflation will continue to erode their incomes, and the factors they cited are unlikely to abate soon,” Joanne Hsu, director of the survey, said in a statement.

-Dow dives 800 points, S&P 500 posts worst week since January after inflation hits 40-year high

-The average U.S. gasoline price flirted with $5 a gallon on Friday, a record high that comes amid a host of problems in the oil and gas industry that have made energy the biggest driver of inflation. Consumer fuel company GasBuddy pegged the national average at $5 a gallon as of Thursday, while the American Automobile Association put the figure just shy of $4.99 on Friday, both reflecting an increase of about $1 in the past two months.

-Even Deep-Pocketed Buyers Are Starting to Back Away From the U.S. Housing Market. Economic uncertainty fueled by rising interest rates, volatile stocks and frothy prices is leading to a luxury slowdown, with a housing bubble in Austin near bursting

-On Ukraine’s battlefields, the simple act of powering up a cellphone can beckon a rain of deathly skyfall. Artillery radar and remote controls for unmanned aerial vehicles may also invite fiery shrapnel showers. This is electronic warfare, a critical but largely invisible aspect of Russia’s war against Ukraine. Military commanders largely shun discussing it, fearing they’ll jeopardize operations by revealing secrets. Electronic warfare technology targets communications, navigation and guidance systems to locate, blind and deceive the enemy and direct lethal blows. It is used against artillery, fighter jets, cruise missiles, drones and more. Militaries also use it to protect their forces. It has become far more of a factor in fierce fighting in eastern Ukraine, where shorter, easier-to-defend supply lines let Russia move electronic warfare gear closer to the battlefield. “They are jamming everything their systems can reach,” said an official of Aerorozvidka, a reconnaissance team of Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicle tinkerers, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of safety concerns. “We can’t say they dominate, but they hinder us greatly.” A Ukrainian intelligence official called the Russian threat “pretty severe” when it comes to disrupting reconnaissance efforts and commanders’ communications with troops. Russian jamming of GPS receivers on drones that Ukraine uses to locate the enemy and direct artillery fire is particularly intense “on the line of contact,” he said.

-A UK citizen who fought for Ukrainian forces in Mariupol before surrendering in mid-April has told RT that he regrets his decision to fight for Kiev. Aiden Aslin said the Western media had played a major role in convincing him to support the Ukrainian cause and eventually made him a “pawn” in a political game.

-Ihor Zhovka, diplomatic advisor to Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy, has said that Ukraine will not “cede an inch” of territory to Russia. Speaking to Bloomberg reporter Maria Tadeo, Zhovka said, “We are not going to give away territory, we won’t cede an inch - especially not in Donbas. Russia has thrown everything at it - I won’t get tired of saying Ukraine needs immediate supply of heavy weapons.”

-A US Navy helicopter crashed on Thursday afternoon, the Naval Air Facility El Centro has confirmed. The crash site is about 35 miles north of Yuma, Arizona, and comes just one day after five Marines were killed in an MV-22 Osprey crash around the same area, in nearby Imperial County, California.

-Kiev will receive more heavy weapon systems from France, President Emmanuel Macron said during a phone call with his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelensky on Thursday. French media reports that Paris is to send more CAESAR howitzers to Kiev. According to a readout of the call released by Macron’s office, the French leader told Zelensky that France would meet Ukraine’s need for weapons, “including heavier ones.”

-Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has listed billionaire financier George Soros among the “instigators of war” in Ukraine. In an interview with Kossuth radio on Friday, Orban said that only peace would curb inflation and save the economy from further shocks, but admitted that Ukraine had “the right to defend itself.” He also said that Hungary was now virtually the only country that wanted peace. Indeed, Budapest, unlike most other European capitals, has refused to send weapons to Ukraine. “We need to fund peace, not war,” Orban explained.

-Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has warned of the devastating effects of an EU embargo on gas from Russia, which Brussels hopes to introduce. Speaking about the conflict between Russia and Ukraine in his regular Friday interview slot with Budapest's Kossuth Radio, Orban said, “the Hungarian government is almost the only one in the whole of Europe that isn’t talking about sanctions and war, but about the need for peace and investing in peace.” “War isn’t in anyone’s interest,” he insisted, adding that he was surprised to hear so few “voices for peace” within the bloc.

-Vladimir Putin has compared himself to the 18th-century Russian tsar Peter the Great, drawing a parallel between what he portrayed as their twin historic quests to win back Russian lands. After months of denials that Russia is driven by imperial ambitions in Ukraine, Putin compared Peter’s campaign with Russia’s current military actions.

-Russia has demolished 1,300 high-rise buildings in the city of Mariupol without removing dead bodies of residents, according to Vadym Boichenko, mayor of Mariupol.

-Russia has labelled a non-governmental organization that fights for investigations into torture allegations as a “foreign agent.” On Friday, the Russian justice ministry updated its website list of blacklisted entities to include the Committee Against Torture, a UN-linked human rights treaty body.

-Russia’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, said two British nationals and one Moroccan were sentenced to death in the separatist Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) had committed crimes on the territory of the self-proclaimed state. Lavrov declined to comment on the cases, saying they are under the jurisdiction of the DPR, which is internationally recognised as part of Ukraine. A senior Ukrainian official said Russia wants to use the men as “hostages” to put pressure on the west over peace negotiations.

-The US government has supported 46 biological research facilities in Ukraine over the past 20 years, but as part of a peaceful public health project rather than to develop weapons, the Pentagon said on Thursday. The US military accused Russia and China of “spreading disinformation and sowing mistrust” about its efforts to rid the world of weapons of mass destruction (WMD). This is the first time the US Department of Defense disclosed the exact number of such facilities its government has supported in Ukraine, in a document titled ‘Fact Sheet on WMD Threat Reduction Efforts.’ According to the Pentagon, the US has “worked collaboratively to improve Ukraine’s biological safety, security, and disease surveillance for both human and animal health,” by providing support to “46 peaceful Ukrainian laboratories, health facilities, and disease diagnostic sites over the last two decades.” These programs have focused on “improving public health and agricultural safety measures at the nexus of nonproliferation.”

-Ukraine’s military intelligence directorate said it believes Russia has the economic resources to continue the war at its current pace “for another year”. The Kremlin “probably will try to freeze the war for a while in order to convince the West to lift sanctions, but then continue the aggression” it said, adding that Russia’s goal “is all of Ukraine and not only Ukraine”.

-37,000 women are in the Ukrainian army and over 1,000 women have become commanders, Ukrainian first lady Olena Zelenska said on Friday.“Most of our doctors are women as well as 50% of our entrepreneurs who work to support the economy at war,” she added.

-An active-duty member of the US military based in Stuttgart, Germany has been identified as having the military's first known case of monkeypox, a US European Command spokesperson told CNN in a statement. The service member "recently tested positive for monkeypox," Captain William Speaks, USN, said in a statement.
"The individual was seen and treated at the Stuttgart Army Health clinic and is currently in isolation recovering in their quarters off-base," Speaks said.

-As the Covid-19 pandemic and resultant social restrictions have abated in much of the world, other viruses are rearing their heads in new and unusual ways. Influenza, Respiratory syncytial virus, adenovirus, tuberculosis and monkeypox are among a number of viruses to have spiked and exhibited strange behaviors in recent months. Health experts say Covid-19 restrictions could have reduced exposure and lowered immunity to infectious diseases, making society more vulnerable to new outbreaks.

COVID CASES USA 7-DAY AVG
111,250 JUN 09 2022
12,910 JUN 09 2021