Russia/Ukraine War Update - July 3rd, 2022

 *** MILITARY SITUATION ***

-The Pentagon is now calling Ukrainian retreats "managed retrogrades"

-Russia claims it has taken full control of Lysychansk, the eastern Ukraine city that had become Ukraine’s last major stronghold in the Luhansk region. The defence ministry reportedly made the announcement on Sunday, after initially stating the area had been encircled.

-The Ukrainian army has rejected claims that Russian-backed separatists and Russian forces have surrounded the key eastern city of Lysychansk.

-An adviser to the Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy has conceded Lysychansk could fall, as fighting intensified in the country’s last big bastion in the strategic eastern province of Luhansk.

-Russia’s defence ministry has said its forces destroyed five Ukrainian army command posts in Donbas and in the Mykolaiv region, according to Russian state media. Three weapons storage sites were also destroyed in the Zaporizhzhia region in south-east Ukraine, the ministry was quoted as saying.

-Ukraine’s army accused Russia of carrying out strikes using incendiary phosphorus munitions on Snake Island Friday, just a day after Moscow withdrew its forces from the strategic Black Sea outpost.

-Russian forces are continuing to achieve “minor advances” in the strategic city of Lysychansk in eastern Ukraine, with air and artillery strikes continuing in the district, British intelligence says. Ukrainian forces probably continue to block Russian forces in the south-eastern outskirts of the eastern Ukrainian city, according to the latest UK Ministry of Defence report.

I repeat UK MoD reports here only for the Lols. They really are beyond ridiculous in their 'characteriztions' of the situation on the ground. It is very hard to find any reliable sources that simply report what happened. The Ukrainians took this town or the Russians took that town, without injecting their opinion of said action. As if their audience is too dumb to be able to understand what said action means, so we have to explain why this defeat is no big deal, or that victory wont help X side win.

-A little over a week ago Ukraine's military began showing off it newly acquired long-rage rocket systems from the US by uploading videos of launches against Russian forces. Ukraine's Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov announced last month, "HIMARS have arrived to Ukraine. Thank you to my colleague and friend SecDef Lloyd J. Austin III for these powerful tools! Summer will be hot for Russian occupiers. And the last one for some of them," in reference to the High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems. Already, Ukraine's forces and their American backers are touting that they've been able to target and strike Russian command centers with the HIMARS, which are well past the front lines. The Hill has cited a senior US defense official who said Ukraine is now having "a good deal of success" with the recently deployed HIMARS rockets, particularly in the hotspot of current fighting, the Donbas in the east of the country. "Because it is such a precise, longer-range system, Ukrainians are able to carefully select targets that will undermine the effort by Russia in a more systematic way, certainly than they would be able to do with the shorter-range artillery systems," the Pentagon official said further. "What you see is the Ukrainians are actually systematically selecting targets and then accurately hitting them, thus providing this, you know, precise method of degrading Russian capability," the official added. "I see them being able to continue to use this throughout Donbas." At the moment, only four are reportedly in use on the battlefield, after lately arriving, but four more were pledged starting last month. The somewhat slow rollout of the systems is related to the time-gap of training Ukrainian operators on how to use them effectively. The HIMARS being provided to the Ukrainians are estimated to be able to hit targets about 40 to 50 miles away, which from the administration's standpoint marks a significant improvement in range, but still makes it unlikely the missiles could be used to strike within Russian territory, which Biden had expressly said he wants to avoid. The US has said that Ukraine's military leadership has provided "assurances" it won't use the newly provided systems to attack Russian territory, amid persisting fears Washington and Moscow could enter direct conflict.

-A prominant pro-Russian anylist points out:

If a hundred thousand are 200s and three hundred thousand are 300s wounded, surrendered or captured, it doesn't matter much. There are hundreds of thousands of bodies available to force into service. Training for Ukies is 2-4 weeks, all important weapons systems seem to be manned by mercs, NATO advisers and PMC contractors. The Ukie tactics now are: stay in prepared defenses until they are breeched and overrun, retreat to civilian infrastructure, use human shields, fight until you have no ammo, run to the next location, second or third echelon. You'll get more ammo, some food and water, repeat until you are dead. Of course there are catastrophic losses. The US designed defenses haven't worked in a war since before WWI. They require a suicidal human frontal assault from the Russians to produce winning results. The Russians' frontal assault comes in the mode of artillery and missile strikes. They have recently added a helicopter and armed drone-based rocket, Project 305, LMAR. Helos can stand off 10-20 kilometers and blowup any target. Russians have been using these in night raids. So, the Ukies get hit 24/7. No trench, house, or armored vehicle is safe. The technology of the rocket makes it devastatingly deadly.

*** ECONOMIC & POLITICAL ***

-Russian authorities are saying that a series of strikes rocked one of its cities near the border with Ukraine. Russia is calling it a "deliberate" Ukrainian attack on its territory in the early hours of Sunday morning, which reportedly killed at least four people in the city of Belgorod. "The regional governor said the blasts hit dozens of residential buildings and air defenses had been activated," BBC reports. "The Kremlin said that Sunday's attack had been a deliberate attempt by Ukrainian forces to target civilians." Belgorod is near Ukraine's large northern city of Kharkiv. Lying just 25 miles north across the Ukrainian border, the major city in Russia's south has 370,000 residents. It's not the first time potentially 'errant' missiles have struck Russian territory - or also it's not the first time Russia has accused Ukraine of a deliberate cross-border attack, but the damage and death toll is the most significant and extensive thus far, with a major emergency response at the scenes of impact ongoing. Correspondent Alan Fisher added: "What appears is that somewhere around 25 missiles were fired towards the airport which is a Russian base in Belgorod. It appears that some of those missiles may have hit a residential area. That’s certainly what the media is saying …"If this figure of a volley of more than two dozen rockets proves accurate, it would indeed strongly suggest the Russian city was deliberately targeted, and wasn't merely an incident with a few errant missiles. Meanwhile, some observers are speculating that Ukraine could possibly have used recently provided US long-range rockets to hit deep within Russia's borders, which if true would signal massive escalation in the war.

-Turkish customs authorities have detained a Russian cargo ship carrying grain allegedly stolen from Ukraine, the Ukrainian ambassador to the country has said. “We have full co-operation. The ship is currently standing at the entrance to the port, it has been detained by the customs authorities of Turkey,” ambassador Vasyl Bodnar said on Ukrainian national television. Bodnar said that the ship’s fate would be decided by a meeting of investigators on Monday.

-Australia will provide 34 additional armoured vehicles to Ukraine and prohibit Russian gold imports, Reuters reports.

-The US is to supply Ukraine with National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System (NASAMS) as part of an $820m military aid package, the BBC reports. Ukrainian Defence Minister Oleksiy Reznikov tweeted thanks to US President Joe Biden and defence secretary Lloyd Austin.

-Ukraine has called for a ship carrying grain from a Russian-occupied part of the country to be seized. The ship is currently lying off the Turkish coast. We've monitored the Russian-flagged ship, the Zhibek Zholy, on its route from the Ukrainian port of Berdyansk to the Turkish port of Karasu. It is not clear where its cargo came from or how it was obtained, but Russia has been accused of stealing grain from areas of Ukraine it controls - allegations Russia denies.

-Ukraine’s forces have received less training over the recent weeks, which impacts their capacity to operate some advanced weapons systems, magazine Foreign Policy (FP) reported on Friday, citing sources. Since the launch of Russia's military offensive in the neighboring country in late February, Ukraine has been constantly asking its Western partners to provide them with more heavy weapons and to do so as quickly as possible. However, as a senior US defense official told FP, “the drumbeat of faster, faster, faster” does not always work well because “the Ukrainians needed to have the training to be able to effectively use these systems.” Meanwhile, the Ukrainian officials cited by the FP, complained on the one hand about the “too slow” pace of Western aid but, on the other hand, admitted that “beyond training for the HIMARS (High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems) and Western artillery, military training for their troops has dipped in recent weeks, leaving them unable to operate more advanced systems.”

-Demonstrators took to the streets in Berlin to demand that the German government not intervene in war in Ukraine. Germany has offered support to Ukraine in its fight against Russia, sending billions in military aid and heavy weapons.

-President Vladimir Putin has signed a decree to transfer the rights of the giant Sakhalin-2 oil and liquefied natural gas project to a new Russian company. The move comes in response to actions from “unfriendly states” and could force out foreign stakeholders, including British and Japanese investors.

-The president of Belarus has claimed, without providing evidence, that Ukraine attempted to strike military facilities on Belarusian territory earlier this week. Reuters, citing the state-run Belta news agency, reported that Alexander Lukashenko said Ukrainian armed forces tried to strike facilities in Belarus three days ago, but that the missiles were intercepted. He claimed Ukraine was attempting to provoke Belarus, and that his country does not plan to intervene in the conflict.

-Video is circulating on social media of a Ukrainian-Israeli man who's been captured by pro-Russian separatists. In the video, 40-year-old Vladimir Kozlovsky tells a bleak story of his brief service with the Ukrainian military.

"When the war started, my wife and I wanted to leave the country," says Kozlovsky, according to a translation of the video by Israeli news site ynet. "I am also a citizen of Israel...Before the border, in Uzhgorod, I met with the Israeli consulate, they gave me a special certificate so I could leave the country—but I was stopped at the border. The border guards detained me and did not let me out."

Uzhgorod is in westernmost Ukraine, on the Slovakian border. While Kozlovsky's wife and child were allowed to proceed, Ukraine bars men age 18-60 from leaving the country so they can be available for conscription into the war against Russia.

Sent on a mission to transport personnel, Kozlovsky and fellow members of his unit came under heavy artillery fire. They retreated but, upon returning, were captured by members of the pro-Russian, separatist Luhansk Republic Army.  It's important to note the possibility that Kozlovsky's statements may be coerced. However, if his account is true, it shows the limited effectiveness of efforts to pour Western weapons into the conflict, and Ukraine's challenge in rapidly turning civilians into soldiers:  

"We had foreign weapon systems but we didn't know how to use them. We were not trained to fight and nevertheless were sent to the battlefield. They didn't tell us we were going to fight either. We thought we'd stay in Western Ukraine, but we were deployed to Lysychansk. We were thrown to the battleground like cannon fodder."

Kozlovsky said Ukrainian military commanders encouraged the hapless conscripts to fight to the death. "We've received messages from the Russians saying we'll be better off if we surrendered. The soldiers also discussed this before, but commanders tried to prevent these talks. They told us that if we surrendered, the Russians would torture us to death, so it is better not to be taken alive."

-Late this week Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said the EU and Russia agree that they need to come up with a plan concerning the transit of goods through Lithuania to Kaliningrad, the Russian enclave on the Baltic Sea. "Both sides concluded that it is worth agreeing a plan that will not violate de facto implementation of the sanctions, because, frankly speaking, the Kaliningrad Oblast is a very small part of Russia," Morawiecki said. Lithuania recently started enforcing EU sanctions on goods traveling to Kaliningrad through its territory, angering Russia, which has warned of a response if the move is not reversed. Morawiecki’s comments came a day after Reuters reported that European officials are in talks on a compromise that could exempt goods traveling to Kaliningrad. The report said a deal could be reached soon if Lithuania drops its reservations, although Vilnius doesn’t want to appear like it’s making a concession to Russia. "Poland supports Lithuania as much as possible in its discussion together with the European Commission in the area of ​​developing… an appropriate mechanism in the flow of goods between Kaliningrad and Russia proper," Morawiecki said.

-Ukraine has requested that Turkey detain and arrest a Russian-flagged cargo ship carrying Ukrainian grain. Ukraine’s prosecutor general’s office said the ship, Zhibek Zholy, was involved in the “illegal export of Ukrainian grain” from the Russian-occupied port of Berdiansk and headed to Karasu, Turket. On Thursday, a pro-Russia official said the first cargo ship to leave Berdiansk was carrying 7,000 tonnes of grain to “friendly countries”.

-Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, has claimed that pressure from the west has pushed Russia to accelerate its integration with neighbouring Belarus. Putin’s remarks at a Russia-Belarus forum on Friday follow comments last week by Russia’s defence minister, Sergei Shoigu, who said Russia and Belarus must take urgent joint measures to improve their defence capabilities and troops’ combat readiness.

-US, UK Unveil A Combined $2BN More In Ukraine Security Aid, Including "Offensive" Weapons. According to The Hill some of the weapons he listed off were identified as "more counter-battery radars, artillery and ammunition, including ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) that the U.S. has recently supplied to the Ukrainians. Biden also predicted that other countries would send HIMARS to Ukraine." The day prior, on Wednesday, the UK too announced it will be providing Kiev with another one billion pounds in military aid. This has been described as to include "air defense systems, uncrewed aerial vehicles, new electronic warfare equipment and thousands of pieces of equipment for Ukrainian soldiers."

-The US announced on Friday that it will provide Ukraine with an additional $820 million in military aid. The new aid package will include new surface-to-air missile systems and counter-artillery radars to respond to Russia’s long-range strikes in its war against Ukraine. The Pentagon also announced that it will provide up to 150,000 rounds of millimeter artillery ammunition to Ukrainians.

-Finland’s foreign minister, Pekka Haavisto, has said war in Europe beyond Ukraine is “of course” a possibility and urged countries to support Kyiv. Finland could not maintain neutrality as its neighbour Russia becomes a security threat, Haavisto said in an interview with CNN, adding that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine “has changed the security atmosphere”.

-After spending billions doubling the size of its fulfillment network during the pandemic, Amazon finds itself in a perilous position. In the first quarter of 2022, the e-commerce giant reported a $3.8 billion net loss after raking in an $8.1 billion profit in Q1 2021. That includes $6 billion in added costs — the bulk of which can be traced back to that same fulfillment network. Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) CFO Brian Olsavsky said the company chose to expand its warehouse network based on “the high end of a very volatile demand outlook.” So far this year, though, it has shut down or delayed plans for at least 16 scheduled facilities. “We currently have some excess capacity in the network that we need to grow into,” Olsavsky told investors on Amazon’s Q1 2022 earnings call. “So, we’ve brought down our build expectations. Note again that many of the build decisions were made 18 to 24 months ago, so there are limitations on what we can adjust midyear.”