Russia/Ukraine War Update - July 20th, 2022

*** MILITARY SITUATION ***

The war continues.

Most of the units currently on the front lines are LPR/DPR, Chechins, and Wagner, supported by large groupings of Russian artillery units. Many of the regular Russian Army combat units are still rotated out for rest and refit. The Russians continue to try to solve the problem of the HIMARS. The Ukrainians continue to use relatively green conscripted territorial defense units (light infantry) in the front lines to slow the Russian advance while holding back better equipped regular Ukrainian Army units behind the lines in support. The lightly equipped front line Ukrainian units continue to take egregious casualties. The Ukrainians continue to use the HIMARS systems to attack Russian logistics and command and control centers deep in the Russian rear areas. The Russians have increased strategic targeted strikes on key military and command and control centers in the Ukrainian rear areas. A particular favorite of the Russian attacks is causing casualties in mustering, training, and staging areas for fresh Ukrainian conscripts, and suspected depots where fresh shipments of Western weapons are being staged. The Russians are preparing for the offensive described below that will secure the remaining territory of the DPR, which will likely take the rest of the summer:

*** ECONOMIC & POLITICAL ***

-A group of House Democrats on Monday pushed for Congress to add four seats to the US Supreme Court in order to overcome the panel's 6-3 conservative majority. At a Monday press conference hosted by 'Take Back the Court Action Fund,' Democratic lawmakers decried recent rulings from the Court which overturned the landmark abortion precedent in Roe v. Wade, which followed a decision which prohibited New York from restricting concealed carry permits.Eight House Democrats, including Reps. Andy Levin (MI), Jan Schakowsky (IL), Rashida Tlaib (MI), Sheila Jackson Lee (TX), Mondaire Jones (NY), Ed Markey (MA) and Senator Hank Johnson (GA) were at the conference. According to Rep. Hank Johnson (D-GA), the Supreme Court is "making decisions that usurp the power of the legislative and executive branches."

-Two, more infectious, COVID-19 Omicron variants were detected in China, and a new round of outbreaks has quickly spread to more than 20 of China’s 31 provinces in 2 weeks. Two big cities in western China have been locked down, while major Chinese port cities are conducting mass testing. All of this is sparking concerns about more lockdowns and economic repercussions. Public research data shows that the Omicron BA.2.12.1 variant strain is more infectious than the original variant of Omicron. Its transmission speed is 1.2 times that of the BA.2 variant. Both BA.2.12.1 and BA.5 can escape vaccine-elicited antibodies. On July 18, authorities ordered a 7-day lockdown of Chengdu, the provincial capital with a population of 16.3 million. During that time, nobody is allowed to leave the city without a negative COVID-19 nucleic acid test result from the last 48 hours. The official notice also states that indoor entertainment venues such as bars, KTVs, gyms, and various public cultural and sports venues in the city are temporarily shut down. Large-scale conferences are not allowed to be held in the city for the time being, in-person training and religious activities are suspended, no catering services for banquets, and various clinics are prohibited from accepting patients with a fever. As the more infectious variants BA.5 and BA.2.12.1 are spreading in China, authorities in more big cities have ordered lockdowns, partial lockdowns, or district control.

-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's planned trip to Taiwan has predictably sparked outrage in China, with Beijing slamming the potential trip as causing "grave harm" and threatening "forceful measures" if she goes through with it. She would be the first Speaker of the US House of Representatives - which is third in line to the US Presidency - to visit the country in 25 years after Republican speaker Newt Gingrich visited in 1997. In April she nearly sparked a major diplomatic row with China after it emerged she would stop over in Taiwan while on a southeast Asian trip. But (perhaps only too conveniently), she tested positive for Covid-19 days ahead of the expected tour, leading to cancelation altogether.

-Ukrainian farmers are to receive support from the US government in the form of a $100m (£83m) programme intended to provide supplies to maintain future harvests. The money from the US agency for international development (USAID) aims to boost Ukraine’s agricultural exports.

-The United States will announce a new weapons package for Ukraine in the coming days, a government official said. It is expected to include mobile rocket launchers knows as Himars, and various artillery munitions, Reuters reports.

-A special commission to control the use of weapons provided to Ukraine has been set up, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. “Our partners are fully informed about how we use the weapons provided.

-Another six French-made Caesar artillery guns are “on their way” to Ukraine, France’s foreign minister has confirmed. Twelve of the guns, prized for their accuracy and mobility, have already been delivered to Ukraine and “the six others are on their way,” Catherine Colonna told a Senate commission.

-Russia's defense ministry has issued a formal order for Russian troops to target Ukraine's long-range weapons and artillery supplied by the West, specifically the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) provided by the United States. In Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu publishing the order on Monday, the Kremlin is sending one of the most provocative messages to Washington thus far in the war, signaling the two powers continue stumbling toward direct confrontation.  "Army General Sergey Shoigu... instructed the commander to use surgical strikes and crush the enemy’s long-range missile and artillery means," the Russian Defense Ministry said according to TASS.

-Putin said gas giant Gazprom will fulfil all its obligations “in full” and mocked the west for relying on green energy. “Gazprom has fulfilled, is fulfilling and will fulfil its obligations in full,” he told reporters in Tehran.

-Russian President, Vladimir Putin, won the endorsement of the Iranian supreme leader for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine during a visit to Tehran on Tuesday. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei told Putin: “War is a harsh and difficult issue, and Iran is not at all pleased that ordinary people suffer from it, but in the case of Ukraine if you had not taken the initiative, the other side would have caused the war with its own initiative … If the road is open to Nato, it knows no boundaries and if it was not stopped in Ukraine they would start the same war some time later under the pretext of Crimea.” Khamenei sdded that Tehran and Moscow needed to stay vigilant against “western deception”, calling for long-term cooperation between Iran and Russia. “Iran and Russia’s long-term cooperation is greatly, deeply beneficial to both countries,” he said.

-Volodymyr Zelenskiy says he expects “significant results” for Ukraine following his wife’s trip to Washington on Tuesday. “Increasing American support for Ukraine, additional assistance to protect people from Russian terror, addressing humanitarian needs are all the tasks of the ongoing visit of the First Lady of Ukraine to the United States,” he said. Ukraine’s first lady Olena Zelenska met her US counterpart Jill Biden on Tuesday ahead of her appearance on Wednesday before members of Congress.

-The State Department on Sunday implied that Ukrainian forces are allowed to use US-provided High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) against Russian targets in Crimea, which Russia has controlled since 2014. When the US first announced it was sending HIMARS to Ukraine, Biden administration officials said they received "assurances" from Ukrainian officials that the rockets won’t be used to target Russian territory. When asked if the ban on Ukraine using the HIMARS to target Russian territory applies to Crimea, a State Department spokesperson told Antiwar.com, "Crimea is Ukraine." "The United States does not and will never recognize Russia’s purported annexation of Crimea. We will continue to stand up against Russia’s unprovoked and unjustified war against the people of Ukraine," the spokesperson said. On Saturday, a Ukrainian intelligence official said that Ukrainian forces should start attacking Russian facilities in Crimea and suggested US-provided HIMARS could be used for such strikes. Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, who currently serves as the deputy chair of Russia’s security council, warned Sunday that if Ukraine launched attacks on Crimea, it would mean "doomsday" for Ukrainian leadership.

The HIMARS the US has sent to Ukraine are equipped with munitions that can reach targets up to 50 miles away. The rocket systems could be outfitted with longer-range rockets, but the US chose the 50-mile range and sought assurances that they won’t be used to target Russian territory over fears that such attacks risk escalating the conflict. But since Russia considers Crimea its territory, any attack on the peninsula would be a major escalation and would risk provoking a response from Moscow.

-A senior Russian security official said that peace in Ukraine when it came would be on Moscow’s terms as Russian forces struck targets across the country with missiles even as their ground offensive stuttered. More than two weeks have passed since Russia’s last major territorial gain – capturing the eastern Ukrainian city of Lysychansk – and Ukraine’s general army staff said that Moscow’s forces were busy shoring up their positions in recently seized territory.

-The Pentagon is reportedly close to securing 375 F-35 stealth fighter jets from Lockheed Martin Corp., Reuters reported on Monday afternoon, citing three sources. The sources said the 375 fifth-generation warplanes would be delivered over three years. Reuters wasn't clear which variant of the F-35 (the conventional takeoff and landing (CTOL) F-35A, the short takeoff and vertical-landing (STOVL) F-35B, and or the carrier-based (CV/CATOBAR) F-35C) was part of the deal. There's no timeline on when negotiations between the government and Lockheed will formalize the contract and announce the massive deal worth approximately $30 billion.

The F-35 mission availability rate currently around 40%. Requires $40,000 of servicing after each flight. Stealth in frontal aspect only.
The US should just catapult palletized bundles of currency at the enemy, it would be cheaper.

-Ukrainian shelling of a hydroelectric power station in Russian-controlled territory in southern Ukraine could lead to a complete shutdown of navigation on the Dnipro river, the country’s largest waterway, Russia’s TASS news agency has claimed.

-The promotion of LGBT relations could be permanently banned in Russia under a bill introduced to the State Duma on Monday, which likens such messaging to war propaganda and incitement of hatred. Currently, LGBT ‘propaganda’ in Russia is only banned when directed at children, but some politicians have been calling for harsher restrictions and punishments for the “denial of family values” and “propaganda of non-traditional sexual relations.” In an explanatory note attached to the bill, the authors argue that LGBT ‘propaganda’ has become widespread in Russia and is being promoted through the media, public events, streaming services and through the depiction of such relationships in films.

-Oil prices jumped on July 18 as the U.S. dollar softened and after President Joe Biden wrapped up his trip to Saudi Arabia, failing to secure a pledge from the Middle Eastern country to boost crude output. Brent crude futures for September settlement rose $2.42, or 2.4 percent, to $103.58 a barrel by 5:30 a.m. New York time on July 18, after a 2.1 percent gain on Friday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures for August delivery gained $2.04, or 2.09 percent, to $99.64 a barrel, after climbing 1.9 percent in the previous session.

-The index of builder sentiment finally gave way and plunged to 55 in July from 67 last month, seventh straight monthly decline and lowest since May 2020.

-Ukraine will break diplomatic ties with Belarus if its forces cross the border in support of the Russian invasion, Euromaidan reports.The outlet cited Dmytro Kuleba, Ukraine’s minister of foreign affairs, who said that Ukraine ceased diplomatic relations with Russia when it invaded the country in February and will do the same if Belarus chooses to invade.

-European Union foreign ministers have agreed another 500 million euros ($424 million) of EU funding to supply arms to Ukraine, taking the bloc’s security support to 2.5 billion euros since February.

-Already days before the July 22 European "Doomsday" when the scheduled Russian 10-day maintenance of the crucial Nord Stream pipeline to Germany is slated to end - but which was thrown into deep doubt given Gazprom recently said it can no longer guarantee its "good functioning" due to crucial turbines being previously held up in Canada related to sanctions - the Russian energy giant has declared Force Majeure to one major European customer. Simply put, Gazprom declared extraordinary and extreme circumstances to void itself from all contractual obligations to this customer, thus the gas will stop flowing indefinitely, as Reuters reports in a breaking development Monday, "Russian gas export monopoly Gazprom has declared force majeure on gas supplies to Europe to at least one major customer starting June 14, according to the letter seen by Reuters." The letter is dated July 14. "It said the force majeure measure, a clause invoked when a business is hit by something beyond its control, was effective from deliveries starting from June 14," writes Reuters.

-Russia’s Gazprom has told customers in Europe it cannot guarantee gas supplies because of ‘extraordinary’ circumstances, according to a letter seen by Reuters, upping the ante in an economic tit-for-tat with the West over Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. Dated July 14, the letter from the Russian state gas monopoly, said it was declaring force majeure on supplies, starting from June 14, Reuters reported. Known as an ‘act of God’ clause, force majeure is standard in business contracts and spells out extreme circumstances that excuse a party from their legal obligations.

-Turkey will freeze Finland and Sweden’s Nato membership bids if the Nordic countries do not keep promises on counter-terrorism made last month, the Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, said on Monday, adding he believed Sweden was “not showing a good image” for now.

-EU foreign ministers are discussing a ban on Russian gold imports, the most significant measure in a limited plan by the bloc to further curb funding for the Kremlin’s war machine.

-Putin said on Monday that it was impossible to cut Russia off from the rest of the world. He added that sanctions imposed by western countries would not turn the clock back on Russia’s development.

-A gas pipeline has been damaged as a result of a strike by the Ukrainian armed forces near the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant in Kherson, a region currently controlled by Russian forces, Tass has reported, citing the regional administration.

-The sidelining of Ukraine’s security chief and prosecutor general by the president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, has renewed questions over Russian intelligence infiltration of key ministries before the war, as well as suggesting increasingly public divisions among his inner circle of top officials. After recent anonymous briefings against Zelenskiy’s childhood friend Ivan Bakanov – who had been in charge of the 30,000-strong state security service, the SBU, since 2019 – over claims of failure to counter Russian infiltration, Bakanov was abruptly suspended on Sunday along with the prosecutor general, Iryna Venediktova, who had been leading war crimes investigations.

-Zelenskiy appoints Vasyl Maliuk as acting chief of the SBU, Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, has appointed an experienced security official and corruption fighter as the acting head of the domestic security agency after abruptly sidelining his predecessor. Zelenskiy signed a decree appointing Vasyl Maliuk as acting chief of the State Security Service (SBU), one day after the president suspended childhood friend Ivan Bakanov over what he portrayed as a failure to root out treason in the agency. Reuters reports that in a further top-level change, parliament voted to accept the resignation of social policy minister, Maryna Lazebna. She did not explain her resignation, which she tendered last week. The prime minister, Denys Shmyhal, issued a statement thanking her for her “effective” work in the role since March 2020.

With some 35,000 people on staff the SBU is as big as the FBI but controls a 90% smaller population. Next to internal security it is also tasked with fighting economic crimes. It is brutal, utterly corrupt and filled with Russian spies and has been so since the Ukraine became on independent nation. The only correct but dangerous move would be to dissolve it. With Zel's inner circle falling apart the clock for his own demise is only ticking faster.

-The United States will continue to provide intelligence to Ukraine despite recent changes in Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s inner circle, the US state department said on Monday. Zelenskiy removed his security service chief and top prosecutor from office on Sunday. US state department spokesperson Ned Price said: “We invest not in personalities, we invest in institutions. We do have an intelligence-sharing relationship with our Ukrainian counterparts ... We continue to proceed ahead with that.”