Russia/Ukraine War Update - July 9th, 2022

*** MILITARY SITUATION ***

 -Russia’s defence ministry said its forces had destroyed two British-supplied Harpoon anti-ship missile systems in Ukraine’s Odesa region overnight.

-Russia is likely concentrating equipment on the frontline in the direction of Siversk, about 8km (4.9 miles) west of the current Russian frontline, Britain’s defence ministry has said. Russian forces are likely pausing to replenish before undertaking new offensive operations in the the Donetsk region, the MoD said in its latest intelligence report.

-Russian army turns Ukraine's (and Europe's) largest nuclear plant into a military base, writes @WSJ  At the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, more than 500 Russian soldiers have deployed heavy artillery batteries, and laid anti-personnel mines

-Ukraine’s military says that it has destroyed 2 Russian command posts near Kherson, according to Natalia Humeniuk, a spokesperson for the joint southern command of Ukraine’s Armed Forces.

-Ukraine’s deputy prime minister has asked all residents in the Russian-occupied territories of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions to “evacuate by all possible means” because there will be “harsh battle” as the Ukrainian army will be “deoccupying these territories.”

-U.S. Says Russia’s Prized Kerch Bridge Is A Fair Target For Ukrainian Forces. The $3.5B bridge Russia built to connect with Crimea is a major strategic and economic asset that Moscow seems very concerned with protecting.

-Rumors are spreading that Russia is planning to begin to destroy strategic targets throughout Ukraine if the war continues to drag on or Western weapons continue to be used against Russian strategic targets. Russian sources have indicated possible plans to destroy all non-Nuclear power generation facilities in the Ukraine ahead of the onset of winter.

*** ECONOMIC & POLITICAL ***

-The Washington Post, CNBC and others are reporting Friday that the Biden White House is readying yet another $400 million weapons package for Ukraine, which will mark the 15th round of security assistance since the Russian invasion. A senior defense official has been cited as saying the specific weapons will be tailored to repel a broader Russian assault in the Donbas, though the recent weeks of fighting have made clear that battlefield momentum is currently with the Russians. "Heavy artillery platforms, like howitzers and High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, or HIMARS, sit high on Ukrainian military wish lists," CNBC writes, citing the source. "The official said the latest security package will include four additional HIMARS, which brings the total number of HIMARS transfers to Ukraine from U.S. arsenals to 12." The new shipment will also include 1,000 rounds of 155mm artillery ammunition, the defense official said.

At the same time, Americans are now flatly being told by the Biden administration that "we are in a time of war..." In a hard-hitting interview which put Biden official Heather Boushey on the defensive, she actually suggested the US is at war with Russia in Ukraine. Interestingly enough this comes a couple months after Biden admin and defense officials insisted it's not a proxy war. Well, which is it?

Meanwhile, as more and more billions are now routinely shoveled off to a foreign country which many Americans without doubt still can't find on a map, an op-ed in Defense One raises some of the obvious questions. An excerpt from the piece below:

"The most serious and talked-about risk is provoking a direct response from Moscow. President Biden insists that escalation risks are being carefully measured, yet Vladimir Putin has attempted to target Western supply lines to Kyiv, conducted strikes dangerously close to the borders of NATO member states, and taken to repeatedly reminding the world about Russia’s nuclear arsenal. Reassurances aside, conflict escalation is perilously hard to predict, frequently occurs beyond the control of the powers involved, and often defies the assumptions and cold logic justifying a given course of action. Amid increasing concerns for Putin’s state of mind, the risk calculus taking place in Washington could easily be off."

-The G20 summit in Bali, Indonesia, on Friday failed to produce a joint statement as the group of the world’s leading economies and largest developing nations are divided on how to respond to the war in Ukraine. Many G20 members have not followed the US-led sanctions campaign against Russia, including Indonesia, China, India, Brazil, and South Africa. The meeting opened with Indonesian Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi calling for the G20 nations to work together to end the war.

-Russian media is reporting that Ukrainian military units sold 2 donated French Cesar howitzers to Russian forces for a fraction of their cost.

-Russia has warned Lithuania and the EU it could adopt “harsh measures” against them if the transit of some goods to and from the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad did not resume. The issue has taken “too long to resolve”, said the spokesperson for the Russian foreign ministry, Maria Zakharova.

-Russia has used ‘only a small portion’ of its potential in Ukraine, says Kremlin The Kremlin has said Russia has used only a small portion of its potential in its “special military operation” in Ukraine. On Thursday, Vladimir Putin issued one of his most ominous warnings yet, claiming Moscow has barely started its campaign in Ukraine and daring the west to try to defeat it on the battlefield. Putin accused Ukraine’s western allies of fuelling hostilities, charging that “the west wants to fight us until the last Ukrainian” and that they were welcome to try, but it would only bring tragedy for Ukraine.

-Russia to take ‘serious measures’ if western weapons threaten us, says ambassador. Russia’s ambassador to Britain, Andrei Kelin, said Moscow will have to take “serious measures” if western weapons in Ukraine “endangers our strategic situation”. In an interview with Reuters, Kelin said Ukraine will have to decide, sooner or later, whether to strike a peace deal with Russia or “continue slipping down this hill” to ruin.

-Putin warns Europe of 'catastrophic consequences' in energy market if sanctions persist. Russian President Vladimir Putin has said that the continued use of sanctions against Russia could lead to catastrophic price rises on energy markets, hitting households across Europe with much higher prices for energy.

-Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) visited Kyiv with Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) on Thursday and said he hopes to see a “hand-to-hand insurgency” in territory Russia has captured since it invaded Ukraine. “Long-range artillery is very, very important. But so is the hand-to-hand insurgency that we are hoping to see in eastern Ukraine, in the territory that’s already been occupied by the Russians,” Blumenthal said. Both Blumenthal and Graham voiced support for an insurgency in eastern Ukraine in the latest sign that the US plans to support Ukraine in its war against Russia for years to come. But the main purpose of the visit was to discuss a plan to designate Russia as a “state sponsor of terrorism” with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

-The Biden administration sold roughly 1 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to a Chinese state-controlled gas giant which Hunter Biden had a stake in as recently as 2015. Speaking with the Washington Free Beacon, Power the Future founder Daniel Turner blasted the Biden administration for selling "raw materials to the Communist Chinese for them to use as they want." "We were assured Biden was releasing this oil to America so it could be refined for gasoline to drive down prices at the pump. So right off the bat, they're just lying to the American people," Turner told the Washington Free Beacon. "What they're saying they did and what they did are not remotely related." Turner noted that the decision to sell to Unipec highlights the Biden family's "relationship with China."

-During a G20 foreign ministers meeting on Friday, wherein Western countries offered scathing criticism of Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine, Russian FM Sergei Lavrov stormed out of the talks. In a press briefing afterwards, he made his criticisms known: "Our Western partners are trying to avoid talking about global economic issues," Lavrov told reporters outside the Mulia hotel. "From the moment they speak, they launch into fevered criticism of Russia." He added, "During the discussion, the Western partners avoided to follow the mandate of the Group of Twenty to address the global economy issues, and to reach agreements to find solutions related to sustainable development within the UN, and lost their train of thought once they started to criticize Russia amid the situation in Ukraine."

-Mexico’s president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, has said his administration would maintain its neutral stance on the war in Ukraine. Asked how his visit next week to Washington could affect Mexico’s position on the conflict, López Obrador replied that the country would stay neutral and that he hoped there would be a ceasefire, Reuters reports.

-The Ukrainian parliament adopted a set of new laws on Friday during its plenary session. The new laws include safety guarantees for journalists working in battle areas, improved social protection for rescuers, and postponed transitioning to keep records of the gas volumes in units of energy.

-Two days ago, Germany's second-largest town of Hamburg told residents to prepare for hot-water rationing during certain times of the day due to "an acute gas shortage." Now, Germany's largest landlord has warned tenants that when the heating season starts in autumn, they will only be able to turn their heat up to 17C (62.6F) between the hours of 11pm and 6am. In a Thursday announcement, Vonovia said the move was intended to save energy and gas use during the current crisis. The company added that the change won't affect daytime temperatures, and that access to hot water won't be affected, meaning tenants can wash and shower as usual according to The Local. Workers will modify the heating system during routine maintenance, and is expected to save around 8% on heating costs once the change comes into force.

-UK consumers will soon be paying an average of more than £3,300 annually in household energy costs, a 71% increase from the record-high utility rates they’re currently incurring, as wholesale natural gas prices soar amid anti-Russia sanctions over the Ukraine crisis, a research firm has predicted. The energy price cap set by regulator Ofgem will jump to £3,363 a year (just over $4,000) for the average household by January from the current level of £1,971, according to the latest projections by forecaster Cornwall Insight, released on Friday. The firm also raised its annualized cost projection for the October-December period to £3,244, up 12% from the third-quarter prediction that it made just two weeks ago.

-Ukraine has lashed out at Turkey and is currently demanding answers over a Russian-flagged cargo ship that was allowed to pass through straits controlled by the Turkish government as it sailed out of the Black Sea. Ukraine alleges the vessel was full of stolen Ukrainian grain, while Moscow has dismissed the reports as false.

-Schools and other educational facilities in Germany should be classed as critical infrastructure to prevent their closure this winter due to possible gas shortages, the country’s education minister has argued. Speaking to Germany’s Rheinische Post newspaper on Thursday, Bettina Stark-Watzinger said it should be a priority for Olaf Scholz’s government to make sure that schools and universities remain open even if the country ends up running low on gas this coming winter.

-The United States has requested the recognition by Russia of American fighters captured during the Ukraine conflict as combatants, Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov said on Friday. “There was a certain signal from the American side, mainly focused on the fact that these individuals should be considered combatants under the definition of the Geneva convention and should be subject to the relevant protections,” he told reporters. The deputy FM added, however, that the topic of American mercenaries had not been explicitly discussed between Russia and the US.

-China and Russia have maintained normal exchanges and promoted cooperation, showing the “strong resilience” and “strategic resolve” of their relations, Chinese foreign minister, Wang Yi, said. China will also support all efforts conducive to the peaceful resolution of the Ukraine crisis, Wang told Sergei Lavrov in a meeting on the sidelines of a G20 summit in Bali, Indonesia, according to a statement from the Chinese foreign ministry.

-Germany has ratified the accession of Finland and Sweden to Nato, three days after the 30 members signed off on the expansion. The documents need to be ratified by the parliaments of all 30 member states before Finland and Sweden can be protected by the Nato mutual defence clause which states that an attack on one member is an attack on them all.

-In a recent interview on Bloomberg TV, Biden official Heather Boushey, who sits on the Council of Economic Advisers, was asked by host Jonathan Ferro about economically illiterate comments from the administration regarding the price of gas at the pump. Ferro laid out how the Biden admin's latest scapegoat, gas station owners, was so poorly received that Amazon owner Jeff Bezos called them out on it. "Where's that messaging coming from?" asked Ferro, to which Boushey returned word salad. Unsatisfied with her bullshit, host Tom Keene held her feet to the fire - asking "You didn't answer his important question - everyone in the nation wants to know the answer to the question Mr. Farro just asked you, which is 'who is advising the president on shockingly naive price theory over a gallon of gas.' To which Boushey robotically returned to the 'time of global crisis' talking points. "Is this central planning now?" asked Ferro. Answer? More word salad.

-US Customs and Border Patrol will punish several agents who sought to block migrants from illegally crossing from Mexico last fall, for “unprofessional or dangerous behavior” and “denigrating and offensive language,” the agency said on Friday. However, the nine-month probe cleared the agents of accusations – leveled by activists and politicians, including President Joe Biden himself – that they “whipped” the Haitian migrants with the reins of their horses, which was compared to the evils of slavery. The Department of Homeland Security “found no evidence Border Patrol agents involved in this incident struck anyone with their reins, intentionally or otherwise,” CBP Commissioner Chris Magnus said at a press conference, referring to the 500-page report compiled by the DHS Office of Professional Responsibility. However, the agents involved will still be disciplined, because several of them “engaged in unprofessional or dangerous behavior, including one instance in which an agent used denigrating and offensive language,” Magnus said. Another agent was accused of maneuvering his horse around a child in an “unsafe manner.” Magnus did not say what punishment awaited the agents, who had been reassigned to desk duty since last fall. CBP had also discontinued horse patrols after the incident. According to Fox News, citing multiple sources within the federal government, the agency has proposed suspensions without pay for up to 14 days.

-‘Several hundred thousand’ new COVID cases a day aren’t being reported as hospitalizations keep climbing. New York Times data show test positivity rate at 5-month high as hospitalizations reach fresh 4-month high, even with new cases holding steady. While fears may be growing that another COVID-19 surge will be upon us in the coming months, there is some indication that the future is now. There’s a reason data show that, while the positivity rate of COVID tests has spiked to five-month highs, and hospitalizations have steadily climbed to four-month highs, new daily COVID cases have held steady for the past couple of months. The new cases are being undercounted because results of widely available at-home tests aren’t being reported for government tabulation. The Fourth of July holiday has also caused reporting delays. “There’s no question in my mind that we’re missing a vast majority of infections right now,” said White House COVID-19 Response Coordinator Ashish Jha said on NBC’s “Nightly News with Lester Holt” on Thursday. “The truth is, there are probably several hundred thousand, four or five hundred thousand, infections today happening across the country.” That would put the daily case count at levels seen during the January surge of the omicron variant. The current outbreak is now mostly the result of the fast-spreading BA.5 subvariant, named the dominant strain this week by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.