*** MILITARY SITUATION ***
-Russia’s armed forces destroyed eight Ukrainian missile and artillery arms depots in the southern Mykolaiv region and in the eastern Donetsk region, the defence ministry said in its daily briefing on Tuesday. Ukrainian officials said earlier on Tuesday that Russia launched a “massive missile strike” against the south of the country overnight, including hits against infrastructure in the black sea port of Mykolaiv.
-Ukrainian forces have bombed a customs checkpoint in the Sevsky district of Russia’s Bryansk region using an explosive dropped from a quadcopter drone, according to the region’s governor.
-Russia is moving convoys of military equipment to Kherson, Ukraine’s military claims. In an operation update posted to the armed forces of Ukraine’s Telegram on Monday evening, the military said convoys of military equipment were seen moving through Melitopol, in the direction of Kherson.
-A major fire broke out at an oil depot in the Budyonnovsky district of the Russian-backed Donetsk People’s Republic in eastern Ukraine after Ukrainian troops shelled the province, according to local media reports.
-The UK’s Ministry of Defence has said it believes that Russia is experiencing a “critical shortage” of ground-attack missiles, even as it advances on Kramatorsk and Siversk.
-The US believes that Russia’s military is sustaining hundreds of casualties a day in its war in Ukraine, and has lost thousands of lieutenants and captains in total, a senior US defence official said on Friday. The official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, told Reuters that the US also believed Ukraine had destroyed more than 100 “high-value” Russian targets inside Ukraine, including command posts, ammunition depots and air-defence sites.
-Ukraine predicts that it will recapture the southern region of Kherson by September. Sergiy Khlan, an aide to the head of Kherson region, said in an interview with Ukrainian television: “We can say that the Kherson region will definitely be liberated by September, and all the occupiers’ plans will fail.” President Volodymyr Zelenskiy also said Ukrainian forces were moving “step by step” into Kherson. However, other reports suggest Ukrainian soldiers are doing well just to hold the front line in nearby villages.
-In its daily operational briefing, Russia’s ministry of defence has claimed that it repelled two Ukrainian landing craft attempting to cross the Dnieper river into the occupied southern part of the Kherson region. It claimed that the boats and the “saboteurs on board” were destroyed. The ministry also claims to have shot down six unmanned drones, and to have destroyed a depot being used as a transport hub for US-supplied Himars ammunition.
-The UK’s Ministry of Defence has issued its intelligence briefing on the position in Ukraine. It claims: Inconclusive fighting continues in both the Donbas and Kherson sectors. Russian commanders continue to face a dilemma; whether to resource the offensive in the east, or to bolster the defence in the west.
-Ukrainian forces have destroyed 50 Russian ammunition depots using US-supplied Himars rocket systems in the war with Russia, Ukrainian defence minister Oleksiy Reznikov said on Monday.
-Ukrainian military officials have claimed a “turning point” in the battle to retake the southern region of Kherson, saying they will use western weapons to liberate by September the first major city captured by Russian forces. Sergiy Khlan, an aide to the administrative head of the Kherson region, said in an interview with Ukrainian television on Sunday: “We can say that a turning point has occurred on the battlefield. We are switching from defensive to counteroffensive actions.”
-Ukraine said it destroyed 50 Russian ammunition depots using the US-supplied high mobility artillery rocket systems (Himars) on Monday. The systems, delivered late last month, have turned the war in Ukraine’s favour by dismantling Russia’s logistics and slowing down its offensive, say Ukrainian authorities. “This cuts [Russian] logistical chains and takes away their ability to conduct active fighting and hit our armed forces with heavy shelling,” Ukraine’s minister of defence, Oleksii Reznikov, said.
-On the frontlines, the Ukrainian military reported widespread Russian artillery barrages in the east overnight Sunday-Monday and said Moscow’s troops were preparing for a new assault on Bakhmut, a city in the industrial Donbas region, Reuters reports.
*** ECONOMIC & POLITICAL ***
-Ukraine has received its first shipment of German ‘Gepard’ anti-aircraft systems, as well as thousands of rounds of suitable ammunition, according to a statement made by Defense Minister Aleksey Reznikov on Monday. “We are waiting for the first 15 Gepards. Three have arrived in Ukraine today. They are already at the disposal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine,” Reznikov said on national television. “These are anti-aircraft systems, for which tens of thousands of rounds of ammunition have been transferred to us.”
-Slovakia’s NATO allies would need to offer money or replacement fighters if they expect Bratislava to send a dozen MiG-29 jets to Ukraine at the end August, Defense Minister Jaroslav Nad said on Monday. Speaking alongside his British colleague Ben Wallace, who urged Slovakia to send more weapons to Kiev, Nad said his government is open to discussion, but would not commit to anything.
-MOSCOW, 25 July. /TASS/. The FSB of Russia disrupted the operation of the Ukrainian military intelligence to hijack the planes of the Russian Aerospace Forces, which was supervised by the NATO special services. This was reported to TASS on Monday at the Center for Public Relations (CSP) of the FSB of Russia. "The Federal Security Service uncovered and stopped the operation of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine to hijack combat aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces, supervised by NATO special services," the CSO noted.
The FSB reported that "Ukrainian military intelligence officers, acting on behalf of the political leadership of their country, tried to recruit Russian military pilots for a monetary reward and guarantees of obtaining citizenship of one of the EU countries, to persuade them to fly and land aircraft at airfields controlled by the Armed Forces of Ukraine." As noted in the special service, the identification of these plans by the counterintelligence of the FSB also made it possible to strike at a number of Ukrainian military facilities. "In the course of the operational game, Russian counterintelligence officers obtained information that helped our armed forces inflict fire damage on a number of Ukrainian military facilities," the FSB said. In addition, employees of the Ukrainian special services involved in the operation and their accomplices have been identified. From the FSB video with a conversation with a Ukrainian intelligence representative, it follows that the Russian Aerospace Forces were ready to pay up to $2 million for the hijacked plane.
-A few hours after the revelations about the failed Ukrainian secret operation to hijack Russian fighter airplanes were published, Bellingcat's lead Russia investigator Christo Grozev added a few more excuses for his deep involvement in the failed clandestine scheme:
Christo Grozev @christogrozev - 14:52 UTC · Jul 25, 2022 - The Ukrainian operation was not a project of either SBU or GUR. (If it were, there'd be no way we would - or want to - get access to it). It was organized by maverick ex operatives whom we got to know in the Wagner investigation. So all the Russian statements from today - claiming this was a "GUR" (Military Intel) operation "with support from NATO" - total, unadulterated bollocks. The whole of the FSB CI were fighting tooth and nail against a bunch of, essentially, volunteers. And not for the first time.
In a weird coincidence ...
16:27 UTC · Jul 25, 2022 - Zelensky has removed Ruslan Demchenko from his position as First Deputy Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council & dismissed Grigoriy Galagan as commander of the AFU Special Operations Forces, replacing him with Viktor Horenko
-The United States has canceled its participation in major annual naval drills which were set to take place on the Black Sea, citing the dangerous regional situation amid the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine. The Sea Breeze 2022 exercise which takes place in July every year was "canceled due to Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine," according to a US Navy statement given to Newsweek Monday. However, in reality it is only the US military's full participation in Sea Breeze that was suspended - not the entirety of the exercise itself. he Navy had previously called the war games "essential" during last year's drills involving 32 warships, including a large US missile destroyer. Ironically the US Navy cast last year's drill as crucial for deterring potential Russian aggression against Ukraine.
-CIA Director William Burns said he is “very proud” of the agency’s analysis in Afghanistan in 2021 despite being blindsided by the swift collapse of the Afghan government and failing to predict how quickly the Taliban would take Kabul. Burns said Wednesday during an Aspen Security Forum discussion that he was “very proud … of the analysis, with all of its imperfections, that we tried to provide to policymakers over the six months leading up to the withdrawal.” The CIA director prefaced this by admitting the agency had not predicted the Taliban would take over the country as fast as they did and that “all of us have lessons to learn from experiences like that.” He suggested that the CIA had at least gotten it less wrong than other parts of the U.S. government.
-EU member states have agreed an emergency plan to reduce the bloc's gas consumption in a bid to soften the impact of a potential total stoppage in Russian gas supplies, DPA has learned.
-Walmart (WMT) lowered its profit outlook for Q2 and FY23 primarily due to pricing actions aimed to improve inventory levels. Net sales include currency headwinds of roughly USD 1bln in Q2. Co. Expects a USD 1.8bln headwind in H2 '22. Walmart (WMT) shares fell over 9%, Amazon (AMZN) and Target (TGT) were also hit.
-Amazon (AMZN) to raise Prime subscription prices across Europe effective September 15th, according to a spokesman; price hike to be by 20% or more a year, according to Reuters. Prices will increase by 30% in Germany, 20% in the UK, and between 39-43% in Spain, Italy and France, according to Reuters.
-Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has continued to be an awkward thorn in the side of NATO and among Western allies, most recently calling on US forces to "withdraw from east of the Euphrates River" in Syria. He said this days ago upon returning from a controversial meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi in Tehran, where high on the agenda was the Astana process the three powers previously brokered for joint security tasks in northern Syria. "For once, America now should leave the east of Euphrates. This is the evaluation of the Astana process. They say that America should withdraw its troops from east of the Euphrates. This is also Türkiye's expectation," Erdogan had said in the remarks.
-The European Union has decided to renew its sanctions against Russia for a further six months, until the end of January 2023. The decision, a formality taken by EU energy ministers, refers to sanctions that were first introduced in 2014 and significantly expanded after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February this year.
-London's power grid was pushed to the brink of failure following last week's record-breaking heatwave. Javier Blas, a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering energy and commodities, said power grid disruption hit the eastern part of the British capital for a brief period on July 20 as air conditioners were turned down and spiked power demand, resulting in a bottleneck on the grid. British utilities had trouble pulling from other power-generating sources on the grid. They relied on Belgium via undersea water cables across the English Channel to increase power supply -- boosting power prices to a record high of £9,724.54 (about $11,685) per megawatt hour. This is more than 5,000% versus average power prices of £178 (about $215) per megawatt hour.
-Russia’s Gazprom is set to cut gas supplies further after announcing a drastic cut to gas deliveries through its main pipeline to Europe from Wednesday. The company said it was halting the operation of one of the last two operating turbines due to the “technical condition of the engine”, cutting daily gas deliveries via the Nord Stream pipeline to 33m cubic metres a day – about 20% of the pipeline’s capacity.
-A South Carolina man serving as a medic in the Ukrainian military has been identified as one of two Americans killed in Ukraine last week. Luke ‘Skywalker’ Lucyszyn, a 31-year-old Myrtle Beach resident, died on 18 July in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region after he was knocked unconscious by an artillery strike and fatally shot by a Russian tank, his commander, Ruslan Miroshnichenko, said in a Facebook post on Monday. The US state department confirmed the deaths of two Americans in Ukraine on Friday but did not release their names or further details. Family and friends confirmed reports with the Associated Press that Lucyszyn was one of the men who died.
Lucyszyn’s longtime friend Trey Kober, of North Myrtle Beach, said Lucyszyn left for Ukraine in early April after telling close friends he felt a responsibility to defend his late grandmother’s homeland. Two weeks before his death, Lucyszyn said goodbye to Kober in an emotional Facebook message after he learned that his platoon would soon be sent to the more dangerous Donbas region. He was pretty confident he wouldn’t be coming back,” Kober said. “He sent us a serious message that said he was being sent to the frontlines to relieve a platoon that had been there for a long time, and he basically just told us, I’m not coming back from this. This is it.’”
-The US donated over 500,000 Covid-19 vaccine doses to Ukraine today, announced the US State department. “We are proud to support the people of Ukraine in their fight against COVID-19,” tweeted the State department.
-Russia’s Gazprom is set to cut supplies further through its single biggest gas link to Germany, crushing hopes a deal over grain supplies would lessen the economic impact of the Ukraine war. The European Union has accused Russia of resorting to energy blackmail, while the Kremlin says the gas disruption is the result of maintenance issues and western sanctions, Reuters reported.
-Russia’s top diplomat has said Moscow’s overarching goal is to topple the government of Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy as Russian air strikes continue to pummel cities across Ukraine. Speaking to envoys at an Arab League summit in Cairo on Sunday, Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov said Moscow is determined to help Ukrainians “liberate themselves from the burden of this absolutely unacceptable regime”.
-The record-high release of crude oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve will end as scheduled this fall, the White House's Special Presidential Coordinator for International Energy Affairs Amos Hochstein told Yahoo Finance. "We can't be an oil supplier. It's a reserve and so we have to keep that," Hochstein said, adding that he did not expect this to lead to price spikes because the oil industry was already preparing to increase production once the SPR release ended. "There's a little bit of hysteria at the moment in the analysis of oil markets," Hochstein said, adding that he had had conversations with oil companies and had their word they would increase production to replace the oil that is currently coming out of the SPR. The plan, announced in April, saw a total of 180 million barrels of crude being released from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to counter the inexorable increase in oil prices amid a tight market, at a rate of some 1 million bpd. Some of that oil reportedly ended up getting exported, including to China, which prompted some. When the plan was announced, there were warnings that it could backfire, pushing prices higher instead of lower because the SPR would need to be replenished after this substantial draw.
-The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Outlook Level of General Business Activity tumbled further in July, dropping to -22.6 from -17.7 (and worse than expected). New Orders and Inventories were the biggest driver of the further weakness, and CapEx fell for the 4th straight month, but it is the comments from survey respondents to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook survey that paint a truer picture than a single headline data point. The concerns of a looming recession have increased over the last month. With supply-chain issues continuing, the cost of raw materials remaining high and significant interest rate hikes, overall business activity has to slow. It is just a matter of when—which I believe is soon.
The economy is in shambles. There’s no way out that isn’t bad.
The building and construction market customers we supply are seeing a slowdown in activity.
November can't get here fast enough.
We are starting to see weakness in incoming orders. We are preparing for a further slowdown but hoping for the best.
Shifting from local pain to national pain, The Chicago Fed's National Activity Index signaled a second straight month of contraction in June (first time since early 2020). The smoothed index dropped into negative territory for the first time since May 2020. The index utilizes 85 individual indicators covering four broad categories of data: production and income; employment, unemployment, and hours; personal consumption and housing; and sales, orders, and inventories. In June, 41 of the 85 made a positive contribution while 44 made negative contributions.
-The United States and its Western allies intend to provide Ukraine with additional 25-to-30 rocket systems, Adam Smith, the head of the Armed Forces Сommittee of the US House of Representatives, revealed on Saturday. That will include both high mobility artillery rocket systems (HIMARS) and multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) from the UK and some other countries, Smith said in an interview with Radio Liberty. The committee chair admitted that the number of weapons is lower than what Kiev had requested but offered assurance that the US and its partners will provide as much artillery and missiles for the systems as possible.
-Europeans, and especially Germans, breathed a sigh of relief last Thursday when amid fears that Moscow would not restart flows along the Nord Stream 1 pipeline after its 10 day maintenance period, Putin turned the gas back on, if just to its pre-maintenance peak level of about 40% of maximum capacity. Alas Europe's muted celebration were not meant to last, and with many speculating that Russia was just waiting for the right opportunity to turn the screws on Germany, both literally and metaphorically, that's precisely what happened moments ago when shortly after Siemens finally delivered transport documents for the controversial Nord Stream turbine that had been stuck in Canada for weeks, Gazprom unexpectedly announced it would halt one more Nord Stream turbine at its Portovaya compressor station from July 27, “taking into account the technical conditions of the engine,” the Russian company says in a statement. This means that as had been whispered much of last week, gas flows from Portovaya will drop to as much as 33 million cubic meters per day from 7am Moscow time on July 27, which means flows along NS1 will decline by half, from 40% of capacity to just 20%.
-The UK government has drawn up emergency energy plans under which citizens could be asked to switch off their lights and turn down their thermostats to avoid blackouts this winter, the Telegraph has revealed. The plans would be enacted in case of a gas or electricity supply shortage, and the public would be asked to slash their energy consumption, the newspaper reported on Saturday. According to documents seen by the Telegraph, in such a scenario the British government would deliver messages at regular intervals via radio, television, social media as well as posters and leaflets, telling people to cut their electricity and gas usage.
-Turkey continues to be “a source of substantial irritation” for the administration of US president, Joe Biden, the New York Times has reported. According to the outlet, Ankara’s stance on the Ukraine crisis is part of a wider range of issues. Ankara’s involvement in the UN-brokered deal on Ukrainian grain exports between Moscow and Kiev a few days ago was welcomed by Washington, but didn’t mean that all problems in US-Turkish relations have been sorted out, the outlet warned in Saturday’s article. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been described in it as a “headache” and “a source of substantial irritation” for Washington.
-Poland is currently trying to replenish its weapon stockpiles after it transferred over 200 Soviet-era T-72 tanks to Ukraine for use in the conflict with Russia. Last week, Blaszczak announced the purchase of some 116 used M1 Abrams main battle tanks from the US, on top of a separate deal to procure 250 new tanks.
-US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has denied that the American economy is in recession, even though a report this week may confirm it by the most common definition, saying the nation is instead going through a “necessary and appropriate” slowdown. Yellen defended President Joe Biden’s economic policies in an NBC News interview on Sunday, arguing that a negative GDP report won’t mean that the world’s largest economy is in recession. The report is scheduled for release on Thursday and, following first-quarter contraction at an annual rate of 1.6%, the latest data may confirm that the economy is shrinking.
-Less than a month after Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a hugely controversial decree ordering that "all citizens of Ukraine" be given "the right to apply for admission to the citizenship of the Russian Federation in a simplified manner," Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Irina Vereschuk revealed on Friday that lawmakers intend to make obtaining Russian citizenship as a Ukrainian a criminal offense.
If the number of Ukes seeking Russian passports was insignificant, there would be no need for a law to stop them from doing so. Just as Ukraine is forcibly throwing people into its army, it is now attempting to keep its citizens from defecting through threats and coercion. This doesn't seem like winning to me.
-Germany is back on course to meet its target of 75% gas storage levels by 1 September, according to Klaus Mueller, who is head of the Bundesnetzagentur gas regulator. Reuters reports he said that there were decent gas injection levels and gas importer Uniper had ended withdrawals from storage.
-Ukraine earlier warned that grain exports would not restart as hoped after the signing of a landmark deal aimed at easing the food crisis if a Russian airstrike on a key port on Saturday was a sign of things to come.
-Russia said Sunday that its missile barrage on a Ukrainian port central to a landmark grain export deal had destroyed Western-supplied weapons, after the attack sparked an outcry from Ukraine’s allies. “High-precision, long-range missiles launched from the sea destroyed a docked Ukrainian warship and a stockpile of anti-ship missiles delivered by the United States to the Kyiv regime,” Russia’s defense ministry said.
-In his daily conference call with reporters, the Kremlin’s press secretary, Dmitry Peskov, has denied that cruise missile strikes on Odesa will have any impact on the export of grain. Reuters quotes him saying “These strikes are connected exclusively with military infrastructure. They are in no way related to infrastructure that is used for the export of grain. This should not affect – and will not affect – the beginning of shipments.”
-Ukraine’s “International Legion” is suffering a shortage of recruits, according to the unit’s spokesperson Damien Magrou, who spoke to NBC News about the challenges facing foreign fighters on the front lines of the conflict between Kiev and Moscow. In an article published on Thursday, the Dutch lawyer who is currently serving as a corporal in the legion said that “there’s been a gradual dip in the number of arrivals over the course of the last few months, which isn’t very surprising given that attention in Western media has shifted elsewhere and the more motivated fighters made their decision in the beginning.” Magrou added that recruitment, reputation and fundraising have been negatively affected by “Russian disinformation,” and that the legion was “exploring avenues to widen” its recruiting efforts.
-Ukraine and Russia have signed a UN-backed deal to allow the export of millions of tonnes of grain from blockaded Black Sea ports, potentially averting a looming catastrophic global food crisis.
-Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov will begin an African tour in Egypt on Sunday, in the hope to establish closer ties as Moscow seeks new alliances amid international sanctions against Russia because of the war in Ukraine. In Egypt, which sources about a quarter of its wheat imports from Ukraine, Lavrov will meet Arab League members in Cairo, before he will travel to Ethiopia and Uganda, two countries whose relations with the West have come under strain, as well as Congo Republic, Reuters reports. Egypt has significant strategic and economic ties with Russia, which has been a key source in recent years of wheat, weaponry and - until the war complicated travel - tourists.
-On Friday, the US signed off on an additional $270 million in military aid to Ukraine including four new HIMAR (High Mobility Artillery Rocket) precision rocket systems. The new aid will total the number of M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems sent to Ukraine to 20. HIMARS can precisely strike targets within 80 kilometers (50 miles) - a game-changer in countering Russia. The White House also said that the new military package will also include 500 new Phoenix Ghosts, small and highly portable drones that detonate on their target, as well as 36,000 rounds of artillery ammunition. The White House also said that the new military package will also include 500 new Phoenix Ghosts, small and highly portable drones that detonate on their target, as well as 36,000 rounds of artillery ammunition.
-Israeli fighter jets launched a major attack on and near the Syrian capital of Damascus just after midnight Friday, killing three solders and wounding seven, which activated the Syrian military's anti-air defenses. While such brazen Israeli assaults on Syria have occurred almost weekly over the last months and even years, many have noticed the timing comes just after Russia's Vladimir Putin was in Iran where he met with his Iranian and Turkish counterparts.
-House Democrats have blocked a Republican effort to prevent the Biden administration from selling oil from the United States’ strategic reserve to entities with ties to the Chinese Communist Party.
-While US macro data continues to weaken - and on the heels of the eurozone's unexpected plunge into contraction - analysts still expected flash US Composite PMIs to increase modestly (from 52.3 to 52.4) with manufacturing weaker and services flat. They were very wrong...
S&P Global US Manufacturing July Flash slipped to 52.3 from 52.7 (better than the 52.0 expected) - lowest since Jul 2020
S&P Global US Services July Flash crashed to 47.0 from 52.7 (well below the 52.7 expected) - weakest since May 2020
Mirroring the eurozone plunge, the US Composite Index plunged into contraction - a 26-month low - signaling a notable contraction in the economy and suggesting a technical recession is imminent. “The preliminary PMI data for July point to a worrying deterioration in the economy. Excluding pandemic lockdown months, output is falling at a rate not seen since 2009 amid the global financial crisis, with the survey data indicative of GDP falling at an annualised rate of approximately 1%. Manufacturing has stalled and the service sector’s rebound from the pandemic has gone into reverse, as the tailwind of pent-up demand has been overcome by the rising cost of living, higher interest rates and growing gloom about the economic outlook.
-While the dumbest guys in the room - that would be energy advisors to the Biden admin (including Burisma consultant Hunter Biden), G7 and Europe - continue to push a Russian oil price cap plan, Russia is making it very clear what will happen if this step is implemented: “As far as I understand,” Russia won’t supply oil to those countries that impose price caps, Bank of Russia Governor Elvira Nabiullina tells news conference on Friday. She echoed Vladimir Putin, saying that imposition of price cap on Russian oil would raise global prices, and added that Russia is working on its own oil price benchmark. Her comments follow those from Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak who told state television on Wednesday that Russia will not supply oil to the global markets if the price cap being discussed is set at a level below Russia’s cost of production.
-Germany energy giant and distressed natural gas utility Uniper, which is among the companies heavily exposed to Russian NatGas, secured a bailout with the German government, reported Bloomberg. Bailout terms call for state-owned lender KfW to receive a 30% stake in Uniper for 267 million euros with further capital up to 7.7 billion euros against the issuance of mandatory convertible instruments. KfW will provide an expanded credit line of 9 billion euros from 2 billion euros. The German government will introduce a cost absorption mechanism, covering 90% of all losses resulting from Uniper's losses resulting from skyrocketing cost of NatGas purchases as Nordstream flows were reduced.
-Pelosi suggested that maybe the military worried China would shoot down her plane, but there’s no reason to believe that Beijing would even consider taking things that far. Here are her comments in context: "I think what the President was saying is - maybe the military was afraid our plane would get shot down or something like that by the Chinese," Pelosi responded. "I don't know exactly," she added. "I've heard it anecdotally, but I haven't heard it from the president." Pelosi declined to confirm if she was making the trip, citing security concerns, and said she never discusses her travel plans. "You never even hear me say if I’m going to London, because it is a security issue," she said.
-The Russian government has issued a statement this morning saying it has expanded its list of “unfriendly states”. Posting an order dated 20 July, the statement says: The government has updated the list of foreign states that commit unfriendly actions against Russian diplomatic and consular missions abroad. The list includes Greece, Denmark, Slovenia, Croatia and Slovakia.
-After calling on all member states to reduce gas consumption by 15% in the face of the threat of a complete Russian gas cutoff, the IEA says the European Union will need to cut even more in order to get through the winter.
-Zelenskiy hails potential to inflict ‘significant new losses’ on Moscow’s forces. Ukraine has the potential to inflict major losses on Russia and make gains on the battlefield, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy claims. Speaking in a late-night video address after meeting with senior military commanders, he said the group discussed the supply of modern weapons, adding the intensity of attacks on the Russians had to be stepped up.
-A deal to resume Ukraine’s Black Sea grain exports is expected to be signed by Ukraine, Russia, Turkey and the United Nations on Friday. The agreement will be put in writing by the parties and signed at the Dolmabahce Palace offices at 1.30pm GMT, the office of the Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, said. Ukraine’s foreign ministry spokesperson, Oleg Nikolenko, added: “In summary, a document may be signed which will bind the sides to [ensure] safe functioning of export routes in the Black Sea.”
-Russia will support Africa to “complete the process of decolonisation”, its foreign minister has said. In statements released by Russia’s ministry of foreign affairs, Sergei Lavrov said Russia has always supported Africans “in their struggle for liberation from colonial oppression”. “We stand in solidarity with the demands to complete the process of decolonisation,” he added.
-Tensions have increased in the breakaway Transnistria region of Moldova in recent days, as yesterday marked the thirtieth anniversary of the signing of a peace accord that helped bring about the current status quo, where Transnistria is its own de facto unrecognised state, with a Russia garrison stationed there. Earlier this week there was a dispute between Chișinău and Moscow, after the Moldovans stopped Russian military officials at the border. Today, Russia RIA Novosti is carrying an interview with the breakaway region’s foreign minister, Vitaly Ignatiev, in which he says Transnistria intends to join the Russian Federation. It quotes him saying: The vector of Transnistria has remained unchanged throughout the years of the republic’s existence, which is reflected in the results of the referendum on 17 September 2006, where it is clearly indicated: independence with subsequent free accession to the Russian Federation. The independence of the country is an absolute priority. Were Transnistria to accede to Russia, that would place a Russian exclave on Ukraine’s western border, next to the Odesa oblast. Earlier in the current conflict, Transnistria claimed that it was being fired upon from Ukrainian territory, and explosions damaged radio transmitters inside Transnistria.
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