The first echelon with PLA armored vehicles arrived in Russia. On July 25, 2022, the military echelon of the People's Liberation Army of China (PLA) arrived at the Zabaikalsk station with equipment to participate in the "Tank Biathlon", which will be held in Alabino near Moscow as part of the International Army Games. The echelon includes platforms with Type-96B tanks, special repair and maintenance equipment, wagons with logistics and standard ammunition. The advance group arrived on the same echelon, including tank drivers and the engineering and technical staff of the PLA team participating in the "Tank Biathlon".
Following the Chinese tankmen, servicemen of the Tibetan Military District of the Western Zone of the PLA Combat Command are moving to Russia, who will take part in the international competition of mountain units "Elbrus Ring" and the international competition of military motorists "Masters of Armored Vehicles" at Army Games-2022. For the first time, Chinese military personnel will bring to Russia third-generation Dongfeng Warrior armored vehicles, which have been massively entering service with the PLA since 2018.
-A key Russian-held bridge into the occupied southern city of Kherson has been hit with a barrage of rocket fire by Ukrainian forces, who appeared to be stepping up operations to isolate the city. Video and witness accounts showed up to 18 detonations on the Antonivskiy Bridge over the Dnieper river, one of the main Russian resupply routes into Kherson, with Russian anti-missile air defences apparently failing to intercept the strikes. There were also reports that a railway bridge was targeted. Authorities in the occupied Kherson region have closed the bridge to traffic, but said it was structurally sound and that repairs would begin shortly.
-The UK’s Ministry of Defence has said “Russian private military company Wagner has likely succeeded in making tactical advances in the Donbas around the Vuhlehirska power plant and the nearby village of Novoluhanske. Some Ukrainian forces have likely withdrawn from the area.”
-Russia has “definitively” lost the initiative in the battle for the Donbas in Ukraine, according to western officials. Moscow will not take the eastern industrial heartland in the “immediate future”, one official said, but “they are not just going to give up and go home”.
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-Senior members of the Conservative Party are backing the prospect of outgoing British Prime Minister Boris Johnson becoming the next NATO secretary general, The Telegraph has reported. The current chief of the US-led military bloc Jens Stoltenberg is “widely expected to stand down in September next year,” leaving the high-profile defense position open, the paper said.
-China may use warplanes and missile drills in order to prevent Speaker of the US House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi from visiting Taiwan, multiple reports have said. The California Democrat has neither confirmed nor denied plans to go to the island next month after media reports. Beijing could declare a no-fly zone or restrict navigation by conducting military exercises near the Taiwan Strait, forcing Pelosi’s aircraft “to make a detour,” the South China Morning Post reported on Wednesday, citing military experts. CNN similarly quoted a White House official on Friday as voicing concern that China may announce a no-fly zone in an attempt to derail Pelosi’s possible trip. The New York Times quoted US officials on Monday as saying that China could send warplanes to “escort” Pelosi’s aircraft and prevent it from landing.
-Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky has told British broadcaster Piers Morgan that inflation and coronavirus are “nothing” compared to Ukraine’s struggle, and Americans should support aid for Kiev “until we win.”
-German arms manufacturer Krauss-Maffei Wegmann (KMW) has struck a deal with the Ukrainian government that would see the firm produce and supply Kiev with as many as 100 PzH 2000 self-propelled howitzers, Der Spiegel reported on Wednesday, citing a company representative. Berlin approved the sale in just two days, the paper said.
-Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz suggested his country could launch a strike against Iran’s nuclear program, calling it “a global problem” at a conference on Tuesday. He also criticized the 2015 nuclear deal – abandoned by the US in 2018 – and the possibility of its revival, though the negotiations to that effect don’t seem to be going anywhere.
-US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Wednesday that the US has made a “substantial offer” to Russia to secure the release of basketball player Brittney Griner and convicted spy Paul Whelan. According to a CNN report, the offer involves trading Russian arms dealer Viktor Bout for the two Americans. “In the coming days I expect to speak to Russian Foreign Minister [Sergey] Lavrov … I plan to raise an issue that’s a top priority for us, the release of America’s Paul Whelan and Brittney Griner,” Blinken told reporters. “Our governments have communicated repeatedly and directly on that proposal, and I’ll use the conversation to follow up personally.”
-Beijing pushed back on Tuesday against a proposal by US Senator Marco Rubio who wants to sanction any entity that purchases oil or other energy supplies from Russia and delivers them to China. China “is always against unilateral, illegal sanctions and long-arm jurisdiction that have no basis in international law,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian told reporters during a regular press briefing. He added that Beijing and Moscow “are engaged in normal economic and trade cooperation” that is not aimed against “any third parties and is not affected by external interference.” “The senator…[Rubio] is known to blame China for everything and knows no political ethics,” Zhao said.
-A bipartisan group of three US senators urged Meta’s Facebook, Twitter and Telegram to do a better job of stopping Russian efforts to spread Spanish-language disinformation about the invasion of Ukraine. Senators Bob Menendez, chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, sent the letters, dated Wednesday, along with Senators Tim Kaine, also a Democrat, and Bill Cassidy, a Republican.
-The Ukrainian government on Tuesday asked Washington to provide Kyiv with a "lend-lease" program to import natural gas from the US to ensure Ukraine has enough gas for heating this winter, Prime Minister Denis Shmyhal indicated. The idea is for the US to provide gas to Ukraine and collect payment at a later time, similar to the World War II-era lend-lease program that was revived this year to facilitate military aid to Ukraine. "Preparation for the most difficult winter in our history continues, and in this preparation we are looking for all possible tools to be ready for any scenario," Shmyhal wrote on Telegram. According to Foreign Policy, one of the proposals that has been floated by Ukrainian officials would be for the US to provide Ukraine with 6 billion cubic meters of liquefied natural gas (LNG) without collecting payment for two years. The US would deliver the LNG to terminals in Europe, where it will be shipped to Ukraine via pipeline. It’s estimated that the 6 billion cubic meters of LNG would cost about $8 billion. So far, the US has authorized $54 billion to spend on the war in Ukraine, more than half of which is for military aid. But the US is expected to spend more as the current funding is only meant to last through September 30.
-If House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) follows through on her planned trip to Taiwan, the US military will beef up security in case a 'mishap, misstep or misunderstanding' endangers her safety, AP reports. While the trip is still an uncertainty, officials say that the military would 'increase its movement of forces and assets in the Indo-Pacific region,' though they declined to go into further detail - aside from noting that fighter jets, ships, surveillance assets and other military systems would be used 'to provide overlapping rings of protection' for her flight, and any time she spent on the ground. The American aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan and its strike group, including a guided missile destroyer and a guided missile cruiser, set out from Singapore on Monday heading northeast towards the South China Sea, according to ship-tracking information provided by Beijing-based think tank the South China Sea Strategic Probing Initiative.
-Simon Tisdall, The Guardian, UK writes:
“He [Putin] has weaponized food, energy and refugees, spreading economic and political pain across the continent. Sanctions don’t work, a land for peace deal would be a disaster. Only the military route remains.”
Tisdall seems to be advocating for direct NATO intervention. It is interesting that the country that is the farthest away and most isolated from the conflict is the loudest voices for escalating that conflict. When the Poles are in favor of it, only then will it mean something.
-With PMIs sinking rapidly and macro surprise indices crashing, analysts finally lost the faith and after months of expectations for continued rises in US durable goods orders, in June consensus finally dipped to -0.4% for May. It turns out that for the second consecutive month, they were 'under'-optimistic as durable goods orders surged 1.9% MoM, up more than double from 0.8% in May, and rose a generous 11.8% YoY NSA. Ok fine, but it is the headline data that feeds into GDP, so we should at least find out what caused the transportation-related burst? And the answer is two fold: first, transportation new orders jumped 5.1% MoM as US automakers apparently got a new batch of chips allowing them to complete whatever legacy production was halted. But a far bigger reason for the surge in headline durables was a much simpler one: the war in Ukraine. That's right, as the chart below shows, the monthly increase in Defense aircraft and parts Durable new orders soared by $10.5 billion (not seasonally adjusted), the third biggest print on record, and not too far off the $13.4 billion record set in the weeks after the Sept 11 war.
-Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy has nominated Andriy Kostin, a lawmaker from the president’s political party, to be the country’s next prosecutor general. Reuters reports Zelenskiy submitted a formal request to parliament for the assembly to vote to confirm Kostin’s appointment. He would replace Iryna Venediktova, who was removed as prosecutor general earlier this month.
-The first train with sanctioned goods has arrived from Russia to Kaliningrad via Lithuania in the first such trip since the European Union said Lithuania must allow Russian goods across its territory, according to the regional governor. The train reportedly consisted of 60 freight cars with cement.
-On Tuesday Israel's defense chief issued a surprise admission connected to the war in Syria, specifically related to the literally hundreds of strikes Israel's air force has conducted on targets in Syria over the past few years. Defense Minister Benny Gantz described an incident in May wherein Israeli military jets operating over Syria were engaged and fired on by a Russian anti-aircraft battery. He said the Russian missiles missed their target, downplaying it as a "one-off incident". Israel has of late semi-regularly attacked positions in and around Damascus, especially to the south and near the Golan Heights, claiming to be targeting "Iranian assets" and weaponry. Last month for example, Syria was forced to halt all flights from Damascus international airport, the country's largest, following Israeli airstrikes that destroyed runways and crucial infrastructure, earning severe condemnation from Moscow.
-Russia has announced it plans to hold large-scale military exercises in a far eastern district next month. As Reuters comments of the planned drills, they will be held "thousands of miles from the war it is waging in Ukraine." A Tuesday defense ministry statement said the military's ability to conduct major drills remained unaffected by the "special operation" in neighboring Ukraine, a war which is now six months in. Describing that the armed forces haven't had to cancel or cut its routine drills, the MoD statement said, "We draw your attention to the fact that only a part of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation is involved in the special military operation (in Ukraine), the number of which is quite sufficient to fulfil all the tasks set by the Supreme Commander-in-Chief." Very likely Vostok 2022 will include the participation of China and Mongolia, just as in the past.
-The Hungarian government has set up a new Defense Council led by Prime Minister Viktor Orban which has been given special decision-making authority, the PM’s press secretary Bertalan Havasi announced on Tuesday. As quoted by Hungarian news agency MTI, Havasi explained that the council was created in response to the military conflict in Ukraine and the ensuing economic crisis in Europe. He also noted that increased pressure from migration had made it necessary to pay special attention to protecting Hungary’s security and sovereignty in the coming years. The council will deal with proposals and reports regarding national security, public safety, border controls, national defense, migrant cases, natural disaster protections, counter-terrorism efforts and defense developments. "The Defense Council is a forum for government political decision-making with special powers, the chairman is the prime minister, and the secretary is the chief national security adviser," Havesi explained.
-Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto on Thursday said he didn’t discuss during his visit to Moscow the possibility of a meeting between his country’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban and Russian President Vladimir Putin. He made the statement at a news conference following a meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. "As for the summit, I don't have that mandate," Szijjarto said to a question from a reporter of the Hungarian news agency MTI. My mandate [at the talks in Moscow] applies only to gas purchases."
-Gerhard Schröder is in Moscow. According to SPIEGEL information, the talks are about gas deliveries through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline. He traveled to Russia via Baku.
-Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni has defended his country’s relationship with Russia, as Moscow’s top diplomat toured Africa to rally support over the war in Ukraine. “How can we be against somebody who has never harmed us,” the Ugandan leader said alongside Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov at a press conference in the town of Entebbe, according to Agence France-Presse. “If Russia makes mistakes, we tell them. When they have not made mistakes, we can’t be against them,” he added, hailing Russia for backing anti-colonial movements in Africa.
-Ukraine aims to strike a deal for a $15-$20bn programme with the International Monetary Fund before year-end to help shore up its war-torn economy, the country’s central bank governor Kyrylo Shevchenko told Reuters. Battered by Russia’s invasion, Ukraine faces a 35%-45% economic contraction in 2022 and a monthly fiscal shortfall of $5bn and is heavily reliant on foreign financing from its western partners.
-US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has greenlit plans to treat injured Ukrainian soldiers at a US military hospital in Germany, CNN reported on Tuesday. Wounded personnel can now be hospitalized at an EU-based facility. According to a memo obtained by the outlet, Ukrainian soldiers would be taken to Landstuhl Regional Medical Center, not far from the French border. Up to 18 service personnel can apparently undergo treatment at the facility at any given time.
-The Ukrainian government has published a list of politicians, academics, and activists who it claims promote "Russian propaganda". Absurdly, it includes high American officials - even a sitting US senator - and a Pulitzer Price winning journalist. A Kiev government-linked agency called the Ukrainian Center for Countering Disinformation released the list earlier this month, identifying figures such as Republican Senator Rand Paul, former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI), military analyst Edward Luttwak, University of Chicago professor and international relations theorist John Mearsheimer, and award-winning journalist Glenn Greenwald, formerly of The Intercept, among many others. A number of notable international names are on the list as well, such as French populist political leader Marine Le Pen, or even an Italian General named General Leonardo Tricarico, who blames Ukraine for Russia's invasion and has urged immediate negotiations to end the war. Some of those on the list, such as Edward Luttwak, have actually loudly supported sending Western arms to Ukraine's military. In Luttwak's case, he was apparently deemed by Ukrainian officials a 'pro-Russian propagandist' merely for proposing a war-time compromise of allowing referendums in the breakaway Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
-On Tuesday morning, the Biden administration said it will sell an additional 20 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve held in hollowed-out salt caverns on the coasts of Louisiana and Texas, as part of the previous plan to tap the facility to lower oil prices, and bringing total sales to 200 million. The sales will take place in September and October, and are set to conclude just days before the November midterm elections. It wasn't clear how much of the incremental barrels will go to China.
-Despite damaging Western sanctions imposed on Moscow in the wake of the invasion of Ukraine, Russia’s economy appears to be weathering the storm better than expected as it benefits from high energy prices, the International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday, Agence France Presse reports. The sanctions were meant to sever Russia from the global financial system and choke off funds available to Moscow to finance the war. But the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook upgraded Russia’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimate for this year by a remarkable 2.5%, although its economy is still expected to contract by 6%.
-European natural gas futures extended gains by 12% after Russian state-owned energy producer Gazprom PJSC unexpectedly announced it would halt a Nord Stream 1 turbine at its Portovaya compressor station from Wednesday. Simultaneously, US NatGas futures have spiked to 14-year highs. Russian NatGas supplies to Europe via Nord Stream pipeline fell to 38% capacity from 40% on Tuesday, ahead of a more significant cut from current levels to just 20% on Wednesday. In a statement, Gazprom said the Nord Stream pipeline would be pumping 33 million cubic meters a day, or 20% of capacity, from Wednesday, adding another turbine for the pipeline will be taken offline due to maintenance work.
-EU member states have agreed to ration gas this winter, in an attempt to avoid an energy crisis generated by further Russian cuts to supply. Energy ministers from the 27 member states mostly backed a plan for a voluntary 15% reduction in gas usage over the winter, but added in several opt-outs for island nations and countries unconnected or little connected to the European gas network, which will blunt the overall effect. The European Commission had suggested that a collective 15% gas savings target would reduce gas consumption by 45bn cubic metres. Once exemptions are taken into account the final bcm tally will be lower, after a revolt led by southern European countries that use less or no Russian gas.
-Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will hold a one-day visit to the Russian resort of Sochi on 5 August, his office has just announced. Reuters reports that no further details were immediately available, but it is anticipated that he would meet with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin.
-Ukraine’s Naftogaz has become the first Ukrainian government entity to default since Russia’s invasion of its smaller southern neighbour five months ago, after the state-owned energy firm failed to make payments due on international bonds before the expiry of a grace period on Tuesday, Reuters reports. The company said in a statement that it had failed to get creditors’ support for a proposal to freeze payments on some of its bonds for two years which it had launched last week.
-The Biden administration has estimated that it may need almost $7 billion from Congress to respond to the spread of monkeypox, given “the scope and urgency of the current situation,” the Washington Post reported on Tuesday, citing a White House memo.
-Hair loss, reduced libido and sexual dysfunction are among a wide range of symptoms that can follow a Covid-19 infection, a new study released on Monday suggests. According to a peer-reviewed study in the Nature Medicine journal, the most common long Covid symptoms include loss of smell, fatigue and shortness of breath. However, hair growth and libido can also be impaired, among other previously unrecognized symptoms.
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