Russia/Ukraine War Update - July 15th, 2022

*** MILITARY SITUATION ***

-High-precision strikes near Bereznegovatoye, Nikolaev Region, Konstantinovka and Kramatorsk, Donetsk People's Republic, hit temporary deployment points of units of 35th Marine Brigade, 54th Mechanized Brigade, 81st Airmobile Brigade and 109th Territorial Defence Brigade. As a result of strikes, the total losses of these formations amounted up to 1,000 personnel and more than 100 pieces of military equipment.

-High-precision weapons of the Russian Aerospace Forces hit temporary deployment point of 14th Mechanized Brigade battalion manned by nationalists and foreign mercenaries near Chasov Yar, Donetsk People's Republic. The attacks have resulted in the destruction of 43 militants and about 170 injured.

-Russian army aviation hit temporary deployment point of 97th Battalion of 60th Mechanized Brigade of AFU near Malaya Tokmachka, Zaporozhye Region, with high-precision missiles. The attacks have resulted in the destruction of 30 militants and about 37 injured.

-Conflicts and clashes with the use of weapons have increased among nationalist fighters. On July 13, more than 200 fighters of the 226th Kraken nationalist formation refused to follow the command's order to move to the Kramatorsk area and claimed a "transfer" to the Kharkov city' territorial defence. During the ensuing fight with the commanders and the ensuing gunfight, 6 militants were killed.

-Reports are, on the Ukrainian side, that a big push on Kherson from Nikolaev will be coming. There has been / is coming a big delivery of T-72 tanks from "the west", enough to support an infantry push... somewhere. I have a hard time believing it will come in the Kramatorsk region; a push from Odessa makes more sense, especially if the Ukrops can take out that dam north of Kherson. There are also reports of the Russians beefing up fortifications on bridges near Kherson. In anticipation of a Ukrainian counter offensive to cut supply lines to the city and the other parts of the Oblast North of the river. Earlier attempts by the Ukies have failed.

-Russian forces achieved “no significant territorial advances” over the last 72 hours in Donbas, according to the UK Ministry of Defence. The latest British intelligence report said Russian forces “are in danger of losing any momentum built up following the capture of Lysychansk”.

-Russian and proxy forces have reportedly entered the town of Siversk in Ukraine’s Donetsk region, according to Russian media reports. State news agency Tass quoted Vitaly Kiselyov, an official from the Luhansk People’s Republic, as saying the town could fall within a couple of days.

-Russian forces will likely focus on taking several small Donbas towns during the coming week, including Siversk and Dolyna on the approaches to Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, according to the UK Ministry of Defence. “The urban areas of Slovyansk and Kramatorsk likely remain the principal objectives for this phase of the operation,” the British intelligence report said.

-Russian artillery and rockets pounded the Ukrainian town of Bakhmut overnight and into Wednesday morning. Donetsk governor, Pavlo Kyrylenko, said Russian forces were “constantly shelling the entire free territory of Donetsk region [with] Bakhmut district suffering the most”.

-The Russian ministry of defence has said it caused large losses to Ukrainian forces in the last 24 hours, claiming to have killed at least 425 service personnel and shot down four planes and nine unmanned drones. Yuriy Ihnat, a spokesperson for the Ukrainian air force, dismissed Russia’s assertions as propaganda.

-In particular, Russian forces claim to have killed 350 Ukrainian service personnel in high-precision attacks on a shipyard in Mikolaiv. They also claim to have killed or captured “a sabotage and reconnaissance group” in the area of Dementievka in the Kharkiv region.

-Ukraine has denied claims by Russian forces that it had shot down four Ukrainian military jets in Ukraine.

-Russian artillery and rockets pounded the Ukrainian town of Bakhmut overnight and early on Wednesday in what some sources speculated was a reprisal for a Ukrainian attack using a US-supplied Himars missile system on a Russian air defence site in Luhansk.

-In western Ukraine it has been quiet overnight, with Lviv’s regional governor Maksym Kozytskyi reporting that there was one air raid warning but no attack materialised. He says that 240 people arrived in Lviv via evacuation trains from the east yesterday.

-At least seven people were reportedly killed by a Ukrainian missile strike on a large ammunition store in the town of Nova Kakhovka, in Russia-occupied Kherson, in a strike attributed to recently acquired US weapons.

-Russia has claimed to have killed a significant number of foreign mercenaries fighting in Ukraine in the last three weeks, including 23 from Britain.

*** ECONOMIC & POLITICAL ***

-Warning from Serbia about what's next: "Serbian President Vucic: “I know what awaits us. As soon as Vladimir Putin has done his work in Seversk, Bakhmut and Soledar, after reaching the second line Slaviansk-Kramatorsk-Avdeevka, he will come up with a proposal. And if they [the West] don’t accept it, – and they won’t – all hell will break loose.”"

-The producer price index rose 11.3% from a year ago in June, near the record 11.6% posted in March. Excluding food, energy and trade, core PPI was up 6.4%. The monthly gain of 0.3% was below expectations. Jobless claims jumped to 244,000 last week, the highest level since November 2021.

-Putin has called the Duma back from summer recess under a special session - they are calling it an extraordinary session. They will be addressing the Ukraine situation and word is that they will change the special operation by declaring war. This is set for tomorrow.

-Washington has not only supplied long-range High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) to Kiev, but is  providing intelligence on targets in Donbass and has even “unofficially” sent instructors to Ukraine to help with the hardware, the Russian Foreign Ministry claimed on Thursday. Moscow alleges that the Ukrainian government has ordered troops to shell civilians in the Lugansk and Donetsk People’s Republics with the help of the US-made weapons. Speaking at a media briefing in Moscow, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, Maria Zakharova, said that Ukrainian forces

-Moscow must suffer “a strategic failure” during its military campaign in Ukraine, US President Joe Biden has said. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s “assault on Ukraine is a challenge to the peace and stability everywhere in the world,” Biden told reporters during his trip to Jerusalem on Thursday. Biden has also promised to continue supporting Kiev. “The free world must sustain a resolve to help Ukraine defend its democracy,” he said.

-Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt plan to join BRICS, and their potential membership bids could be discussed and answered at next year’s summit in South Africa, Purnima Anand, the president of the organization, told Russian media on Thursday. “All these countries have shown their interest in joining [BRICS] and are preparing to apply for membership. I believe this is a good step, because expansion is always looked upon favorably; it will definitely bolster BRICS’ global influence,” she told Russian newspaper Izvestia. The BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) account for over 40% of the global population and nearly a quarter of the world’s GDP. The bloc’s stated purposes include promoting peace, security, development, and cooperation globally, and contributing to the development of humanity.

-On Thursday the governor of Russia's Kaliningrad Oblast, Anton Alikhanov, announced that the delivery of goods by rail should resume "literally today or tomorrow." He hailed yesterday's European Commission guidelines telling Lithuania that EU sanctions don't apply to Russian imports delivered by rail a "victory of our diplomacy". He further said that despite the road ban on goods brought by Russia-registered trucks is still in place, over 80% of prior restrictions on transit have now been lifted with the European Commission decision.

-In April the EU's top law enforcement agency Europol warned that smuggling of weapons from the Ukrainian battlefield to the black market outside the warzone had likely already begun. For five months the West, especially the US and UK, has been pumping more and more weapons into the conflict. There's also the concern that "criminal gangs" will continue using them long after the war ends. US defense officials months ago also admitted they had "almost zero" ability to track weapons they hand out to Ukrainian forces. The Pentagon inspector General also recently admitted this reality on the ground. Most recently, according to fresh reporting in the Financial Times this week, multiple NATO countries are in talks with Ukraine's government to establish a monitoring mechanism to better oversee weapons shipments and their locations once in the hands of local forces.

The report cites unnamed Western officials who are talking about the need for "detailed inventory lists" of all military gear sent into the country. This begs the question: why don't such lists complete with serial numbers exist to begin with? Underscoring the haphazard and chaotic nature of how arms and gear are delivered across the border, the FT details based on a source:

"All these weapons land in southern Poland, get shipped to the border and then are just divided up into vehicles to cross: trucks, vans, sometimes private cars," said one of the western officials. "And from that moment we go blank on their location and we have no idea where they go, where they are used or even if they stay in the country.”

-Lithuania has said it will keep restrictions on Kaliningrad trade in place while it works out rules on how to resume the trade.

-The Kremlin said on Wednesday that it hoped President Joe Biden's visit to Saudi Arabia would not be used to try to foster anti-Russian relations, just as the United States seeks to convince Riyadh to boost oil production amid soaring prices. White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said on Monday that Biden will make the case for greater oil production from OPEC nations to bring down gasoline prices when he meets Gulf leaders in Saudi Arabia this week.

-The United States would use force to prevent Iran from acquiring or developing nuclear weapons if all other options fail, President Joe Biden has said. Mr Biden said the US would use its’ military to prevent Iran’s nuclear program from succeeding in bringing about a working nuclear weapon during an interview with Israel’s Channel 12 news. After his interviewer raised prior comments in which Mr Biden had said he’d do anything to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear power, she asked if that meant he would use force against Iran. Mr Biden replied: “If it’s the last resort, yes”.

-The Chinese military “drove away” a US destroyer reportedly sailing near the Paracel (Xisha) Islands in the South China Sea, The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Southern Theatre Command said on Wednesday. Beijing claims the guided-missile destroyer USS Benfold “illegally trespassed into Chinese territorial waters”. In response “the PLA’s Southern Theatre Command organized sea and air forces to follow, monitor, warn and drive away” the ship, according to a PLA statement.

-Russian state energy giant Gazprom announced Wednesday that it "cannot guarantee good functioning of Nord Stream pipeline" to Germany, saying it's still as yet unclear and unknown whether a "critical" turbine engine would be returned from repair in Canada. This two days after Nord Stream halted natural gas flow on July 11 for scheduled maintenance - with all eyes to be on the July 22nd scheduled day that gas is supposed to come back online, or maybe not - based on the new Gazprom statement. Europe, and Germany in particular is on edge over fears Vladimir Putin plans to 'weaponize' the pipeline, using the maintenance as cover to halt gas to Germany indefinitely in retribution for the EU's far-reaching anti-Russia sanctions.

-The Ukrainian World Congress is taking legal action against Canada for breaking sanctions and transferring repaired turbines to Germany for the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline. According to a statement released on Tuesday, the organisation said: Over the past several days, the Ukrainian World Congress together with the Ukrainian Canadian Congress has been pleading with the Government of Canada to revoke the waiver provided to Siemens Canada which allows the return of repaired Nord Stream 1 turbines to Germany. We have also called upon the Government to ensure that all sanctions that have been imposed by Canada on Russia remain in place and are significantly enhanced. To date, our efforts have been unsuccessful, and we have had no choice but to take legal action.” The organisation filed a notice of application for judicial review, sating that the decision to grant the permit was not reasonable, transparent, or properly authorised.

-Germany has published a complete list of its military aid for Ukraine after increasing its support package to €2bn. The list of military aid includes seven Panzerhaubitzen 2000 self-propelled howitzers, cars, a field hospital, spare parts for the MiG-29, armoured vehicles, tanks, air defence systems and MLRS. Also included are 14,900 anti-tank mines, 500 stinger anti-aircraft missiles and 21.8m rounds of handgun ammunition.

Luhansk People’s Republic people’s militia servicemen stand at an exhibition of captured Ukrainian tanks and weapons in Lysychansk.

Local residents line up to get humanitarian aid from the self-proclaimed Luhansk People’s Republic in Lysychansk.

A Russian soldier stands guard as foreign journalists look at a city sign repainted in the colours of the Russian flag at the entrance of Sievierodonetsk.

-The EU executive has said sanctioned Russian goods can transit through the bloc’s territory to Kaliningrad by rail, but not by road. In a statement, the European Commission said. The transit of sanctioned goods by road with Russian operators is not allowed under the EU measures. No such similar prohibition exists for rail transport.

-Hungary has declared a “state of danger” on Wednesday due to the energy crisis caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Gergely Gulyas, chief of staff of Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s office announced a seven-point plan to takle the energy crisis and listed the measures after a cabinet meeting.

-Ukraine’s foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, has ruled out ceding territory to Russia as part of any ceasefire deal. In a briefing, Kuleba said no peace talks were under way between Moscow and Kyiv “because of Russia’s position and its continued aggression against our country”.

-North Korea has officially recognised the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic and the self-proclaimed Luhansk People’s Republic, the pro-Russian occupied territories in the east of Ukraine. The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) becomes only the third UN member state to recognise them as legitimate authorities, after Russia and Syria. In response, Ukraine’s foreign ministry announced it has cut ties with North Korea.

-Ukraine cuts ties with North Korea over recognition of breakaway regions. Ukraine’s foreign ministry has announced it has cut ties with the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), most commonly referred to in the west as North Korea, over its recognition of two pro-Russian occupied territories in the east of Ukraine.

-Senior-level Ukrainian officers have been studying in the US state of Kansas, thousands of miles from Russia's invasion and the battlefields of Donbas. Outside the Fort Leavenworth army base, wheat fields are starting to turn. Wide, open prairie land, with softly rolling hills, stretches for miles, and the sky is huge. This quintessentially Kansas landscape has become the backdrop for generations of international soldiers, who head to the US base to receive strategic training. Ukraine's deputy interior minister, Anton Herashchenko, has remarked on its similarities to the landscape of Donbas, in the country's heavily-contested east. Pentagon spokesman John Kirby says the same: "That part of Ukraine is a bit like Kansas, so it's a little bit flatter, it's a little bit more open," he told media during a press briefing. Fort Leavenworth has proved to be a valuable training ground for dozens of Ukrainian soldiers over the past several decades, who spend a year studying at the base's US Army Command and General Staff College.