Russia/Ukraine War Update - July 11th, 2022

 *** MILITARY SITUATION ***

-Russia is moving forces across the country and assembling them near Ukraine for future offensive operations, according to Britain’s Ministry of Defence. The latest intelligence update said a large proportion of the new infantry units were “probably” deploying with MT-LB armoured vehicles taken from long-term storage.

*** ECONOMIC & POLITICAL ***

-Images are coming through on the wires of an exhibition of Ukrainian army hardware and weapons left in the city of Lysychansk, after troops fled.

-On Saturday the US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, said the US’s “commitment to the people of Ukraine is resolute” while announcing more than $360mn in additional aid.

-According to the FT, Germany is now rationing hot water, dimming its street lights and shutting down swimming pools as the impact of its energy crunch begins to spread like the proverbial Ice-Nine wave, from industry to offices, leisure centers and residential homes. The reason behind Germany's slow motion paralysis is well-known: the huge increase in gas prices triggered by Russia’s move last month to sharply reduce supplies to Germany has plunged Europe’s biggest economy into its worst energy crisis since the oil price shock of 1973. With electricity prices hitting never before seen levels, gas importers and utilities are fighting for survival while consumer bills are going through the roof, with some warning of rising friction. “The situation is more than dramatic,” said Axel Gedaschko, head of the federation of German housing enterprises GdW. “Germany’s social peace is in great danger.” Unfortunately, as tensions over Russia’s war in Ukraine escalate, officials fear the situation could get worse. On Monday, as we reported last week, Russia is shutting down its main pipeline to Germany, Nord Stream 1, for 10 days of scheduled maintenance. Many in Berlin fear it will never reopen.

-Russia will increase its gas supplies to Europe if a turbine necessary for Nord Stream 1 that is currently undergoing repair in Canada is returned, Reuters reported on Friday. Ukraine urged Canada on Thursday not to return a gas turbine to Gazprom, claiming that the Russian major has enough turbines to keep gas flowing to Europe at full capacity. According to a Reuters report that cited a Ukrainian government official, if Canada returns the turbine to Gazprom, it would violate its own sanctions. Canada has indicated that it has no intention of returning the turbine, with Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson saying in late June that "If you talk to the Germans, they are very, very concerned about" their energy security. "I'm sure it'll come up at least in the corridors of the G7 ... I wouldn't hold my breath that we're going to find a resolution before the end."

-Canada is risking Ukraine’s ire by returning to Germany a repaired giant turbine that will speed the flow of Russian gas through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, Reuters reports. Canada announced its decision Saturday after originally seizing the damaged turbine, owned by Russian gas and oil giant Gazprom, last month while it was undergoing repair in the workshops of Siemens Energy Canada.

-Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy dismissed Kyiv’s ambassador to Germany on Saturday as well as several other top foreign envoys, the presidential website said. In a decree that gave no reason for the move, he announced the sacking of Ukraine’s ambassadors to Germany, India, Czech Republic, Norway and Hungary, Reuters reports.

-British forces have begun training Ukrainian soldiers in a new programme to help in their fight against Russia. Defence secretary, Ben Wallace, visited the military camp in the north-west where up to 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers will arrive for specialist military training.

-The United Nations has said Ukraine’s armed forced bear a large, and perhaps equal, share of the blame for an assault that took place at a nursing home in Luhansk, where dozens of elderly and disabled patients were trapped inside without water or electricity. At least 22 of the 71 patients survived the assault, but the exact number of people killed remains unknown.

-Sri Lankan President Gotabaya Rajapaksa announced he would step down late Saturday night after thousands of protesters rushed his official residence and offices earlier in the day. Rajapaksa has taken refuge in an undisclosed location, some have pointed out, possibly on a naval ship. Parliament Speaker Mahinda Yapa Abeywardena told the nation in a televised announcement late Saturday that Rajapaksa will resign Wednesday "to ensure a peaceful transition."

-In response to Hungary's obstruction of the European Union's adoption of a 15% global minimum tax on corporate income, the Biden administration on Friday announced it will terminate a 43-year-old tax treaty with the country. Hungary blocked the EU's finalization of the 15% minimum tax scheme in June. Over the past dozen years, Hungary has slashed its corporate tax rate from 19% to just 9%. In October 2020, 136 countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)—together representing more than 90% of the world's GDP—agreed to move forward with the tax plan. Making it an actual reality, however, requires countries and economic blocs to pass legislation.

-A retired three-star general has been suspended from a $92-an-hour contract consulting the Army and is under investigation after posting a tweet that appeared to mock first lady Jill Biden on a hot-button social issue, according to the Army. Retired Lt. Gen. Gary Volesky, the Army's former top spokesman and recipient of the Silver Star for gallantry in Iraq, had been a "senior mentor," advising senior military officers, staff and students participating in war games and other military activities. Lt. Gen. Theodore Martin, commander of the Combined Arms Center, suspended Volesky pending the outcome of the inquiry, Cynthia Smith, an Army spokeswoman, told USA TODAY. On June 24, the first lady posted a tweet condemning the Supreme Court's decision overturning the constitutional right to abortion, which read in part: "For nearly 50 years, women have had the right to make our own decisions about our bodies. Today, that right was stolen." Volesky replied with his own tweet: "Glad to see you finally know what a woman is". His response represents a breach of decorum for a retired military officer and a foray into partisan politics by an official on the payroll of the Pentagon, which is supposed to steer clear of such matters, experts say. His tweet has been deleted.