Russia/Ukraine War Update - July 8th, 2022

 *** MILITARY SITUATION ***

 -Ukraine has rejected the claim that Russian forces destroyed two advanced US-made Himars rocket systems and their ammunition depots in eastern Ukraine. Ukraine’s general staff said the claims by Russia’s defence ministry were fake and that it was using the US-supplied Himars to inflict “devastating blows” on Russian forces.

-Footage released by the Ukrainian military shows troops installing a national flag on Snake Island after regaining control.

-Russia’s defence ministry has said it killed Ukrainian servicemen who were trying to raise Ukraine’s flag on the recently retaken Snake Island. Authorities in Odesa appeared to confirm that missiles had struck the island, and that Russians had also destroyed two grain hangars in the region which contained “about 35 tonnes of grain”.

-Ukrainian forces are finally seeing the impact of western weapons on the frontlines of the war with Russia, Volodymyr Zelenskiy has said. During his nightly TV address, Zelenskiy said Ukrainian forces were advancing in two directions in the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions on Ukraine’s southern front and dealing blows to Russia by hitting some of its logistics warehouses.

-A Russian missile has hit a tanker carrying 500 tonnes of diesel drifting in the Black Sea, according to the Ukrainian military. Two KH-31 missiles were fired and one hit the Moldovan-flagged Millennial Spirit, Ukraine’s operational command south said. It is the second time the ship has now been struck since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

*** ECONOMIC & POLITICAL ***

-Russia appears to be on track for a much shallower recession than was initially expected this year, Bloomberg reported on Wednesday, citing experts. Surging oil shipments have blunted the impact of US and EU sanctions, they say. According to the publication, economists from JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, and other big banks are slashing their outlooks for the drop in output this year to as little as 3.5%. Russian officials, some of whom foresaw a contraction of as much as 12%, are now preparing to update their forecasts to less than half of that.

-Former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has reportedly been shot in the chest during a campaign speech at around 11:30 a.m. in the city of Nara, near Kyoto. According to NHK what sounded like 'consecutive bangs' were heard, after which Abe could be seen bleeding - with some reports saying from the neck. It appears he was shot in the left chest area from behind. Abe is reportedly showing no signs of life and has suffered from cardiac arrest after being taken to the hospital, according to police and fire officials. The 67-year-old was shot from approximately 3 meters (10 feet) away. The suspect, 42-year-old Yamagami Tatsuya, reportedly stayed on the scene until his arrest on an attempted murder charge.

-Russian president, Vladimir Putin, warned Moscow has barely started its campaign in Ukraine and dared the west to try to defeat it on the battlefield. Putin said the prospects for any negotiation would grow dimmer the longer the conflict dragged on during a speech to parliamentary leaders. “Everyone should know that, by and large, we haven’t started anything yet in earnest,” he said. “The further it goes, the harder it will be for them to negotiate with us.”

-Canada will send 39 General Dynamics-made armored vehicles to Ukraine later this summer in attempts to assist the war-torn country in its fight against Russian forces.

-Russian prosecutors have called for prison sentences for a prominent opposition activist and for a Moscow city council member who opposes the invasion of Ukraine. Alexei Gorinov faces up to 15 years in prison for spreading “knowingly false information” about the Russian army. Gorinov criticised Moscow’s military actions in Ukraine at a city council meeting in March.

-More than 5 million barrels of oil that were part of the historic U.S. SPR release were exported to Europe and Asia last month, including top US geopolitical nemesis in the global arena, China, even as U.S. gasoline and diesel prices hit record highs.

-A Reuters exclusive report has revealed that Ukraine opposes Canada’s handing over a turbine to Russia’s Gazprom that Moscow says is critical for supplying natural gas to Germany. According to a Ukrainian energy ministry source, Ukraine believes that doing so would defy sanctions against Russia.

-Brazilian President, Jair Bolsonaro, has said the economic sanctions imposed by the west against Russia have not worked. “The economic barriers that the United States and Europe imposed against Russia did not work,” Bolsonaro told supporters on Thursday, adding that his position towards Putin and the war “was one of balance.” Bolsonaro said that stance had allowed him to acquire fertilisers, a key input for Brazil’s vast agricultural sector, from Russia. He also said Russia shared Brazil’s concerns over “sovereignty” of the Amazon.

-Ukraine has summoned the Turkish ambassador after it said Turkey had allowed a Russian-flagged ship carrying what it has claimed was thousands of tonnes of stolen Ukrainian grain to leave the port of Karasu. Turkish customs officials had seized the vessel at Ukraine’s request on Tuesday, after Kyiv said the cargo was illegally transporting 7,000 tonnes of grain out of Russian-occupied Berdiansk, a port in the south-east of Ukraine.

-Europe must prepare for complete cut-off of Russian gas, says Ursula von der Leyen The president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, said the EU needs to make emergency plans to prepare for a complete cut-off of Russian gas.

-US basketball player Brittney Griner has pleaded guilty to drugs charges in a Russian court, but said she had not deliberately broken the law. The next court hearing is scheduled for 14 July. Griner faces up to 10 years in prison under the charge. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, said “hype” around Griner’s case does not help and suggested Washington be silent about her fate.

-Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov has flown into the Indonesian island of Bali for a gathering of G20 foreign ministers.

-Boris Johnson, who earlier resigned as the leader of Britain’s Conservative party, has spoken with Volodymyr Zelenskiy “to reiterate the United Kingdom’s steadfast support”, Downing Street said. Johnson’s resignation has been met with sadness in Kyiv, most notably by Volodymyr Zelenskiy who said the PM has been a “true friend of Ukraine”. Johnson’s downfall has been met with delight and ridicule in Moscow, with Kremlin spoksperson saying: “He doesn’t like us. We don’t like him either.”