*** MILITARY SITUATION ***
The Ukrainian counteroffensive north and east of Kharkiv city secured further gains in the last 24 hours and may successfully push Russian forces out of artillery range of Kharkiv in the coming days. Ukrainian forces captured several settlements north and east of Kharkiv in the last 24 hours, reducing the ability of Russian forces to threaten Ukraine’s second-largest city. This Ukrainian operation is developing into a successful, broader counteroffensive—as opposed to the more localized counterattacks that Ukrainian forces have conducted throughout the war to secure key terrain and disrupt Russian offensive operations.
Ukrainian forces are notably retaking territory along a broad arc around Kharkiv rather than focusing on a narrow thrust, indicating an ability to launch larger-scale offensive operations than we have observed so far in the war (as Ukrainian forces predominantly retook the outskirts of Kyiv following Russian withdrawals rather than in a major counteroffensive). The willingness of Ukrainian forces to concentrate the forces necessary for this scale of offensive operations, rather than deploying these available forces to defenses in eastern Ukraine, additionally indicates the Ukrainian military’s confidence in repelling ongoing Russian operations to encircle Ukrainian forces in the Severodonetsk area. While Ukrainian forces are unlikely to directly threaten Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to Izyum (as they run further to the east of recent Ukrainian advances), Ukrainian forces may be able to relieve Russian pressure on Kharkiv and possibly threaten to make further advances to the Russian border.
-Russian troops are attempting to encircle and storm Severodonetsk, the easternmost city in Ukraine held by Kyiv, a local official said. Severodonetsk’s capture would be a major gain for the Russian army which has refocused its efforts on taking the whole of the eastern Donbas region.
-We cannot confirm initial reports of a Ukrainian Neptune anti-ship missile strike on the Russian frigate Admiral Makarov on May 6. Pentagon Spokesperson John Kirby said the United States cannot confirm the reported strike and added “we’ve been looking at this all day.”
Kharkiv Counteroffensive
The Ukrainians got a bit of good news today with reports that they mounted a counteroffensive north of Kharkiv. Focus on the rivers shown in the following map. The Russians are withdrawing from positions that would leave them trapped with their backs to the water. But this is not a great victory for Ukraine. From the Russian standpoint it is tactical withdrawal so that their forces retain the freedom to move in different directions. The danger for the Ukrainians is that they are out in the open and provide a potential fat target for Russian artillery and airstrikes.
1—Following the withdrawal of Russian forces from Stary Saltov, the withdrawal of the troops from the northeastern outskirts of Kharkov became only a matter of time.
2—After a Ukrainian saboteur-recon group blew up the bridge across the Murom river, between Russkiye Tishki & Cherkasskiye Tishki, threat of encirclement in a cauldron became obvious.
3—Russian command decided to withdraw RF units from Tsirkuny, Cherkasskiye Tishki, & Liptsy.
4—The advance units of Ukrainian forces entered Liptsy in the morning of May 6, 2022. At that time, there were not longer any Russian troops in the settlement: The units had withdrawn to the north. At this time, Russian forces control a 7-8 km buffer zone north of Kharkov.
5—Ukrainian forces are conducting a zachistka (mop-up operations against civilians). Ukrainian units are breaking into basements, checking the cellphones of local residents, and are searching for agents and informers of the Russian forces.
Southern Front
Next up is the tactical picture on the southern front. The Russians are enjoying more success here. If they seize control of Orekhov they will be positioned to move on Zaporozhye and create a threat to the Ukrainian forces occupying territory north of them. This means the Ukrainians will be facing increased pressure to avoid being encircled.
1—In Mariupol, the Allied forces have taken control of the terrikon (man-made slag heap mountain) on the southeastern outskirts of the Azovstal industrial complex. The strikes at the positions of the Azov (Ukrainian neo-Nazi National Guard regiment) continue unabated. After demanding to exchange the civilians they hold as human shield hostages for food, the Azov nationalists have been categorized as terrorists.
2—Russian forces are conducting constant strikes against Gulyai Pole and Orekhov. These are two of the primary fortified strongholds of the Ukrainian forces in this theatre of the conflict. Once the Ukrainian defensive lines at Gulayi Pole are broken, a further offensive in the direction of the northern Allied grouping that is advancing on Slavyansk from the north will become possible.
3—To the west of Orekhov, the Russian forces have taken the minor settlement of Shcherbaki. Taking control of Orekhov would open the door to an offensive on Zaporozhye (the administrative centre of the Zaporozhye region).
4—On the boundary line between Novoukrainka-Ugledar-Sladkoye, Russian forces have evened out the line of front.
A Note on Casualties
By its own accounting, the Donetsk People’s Republic has suffered 1635 military deaths this year along with 6575 wounded. Before the February general mobilization Donetsk had 20,000 men under arms. After the mobilization and roundups the number swelled but it’s difficult to know by how much. If the 8210 casualties were concentrated in the 20,000 in the prewar force that would be quite consequential.
It’s interesting to note that Donetsk’s officially acknowledged casualties are now greater than those of Russia.
The last official Russian number is 1351 dead and 3825 wounded from March 25, after twenty-eight days of fighting and forty days ago. Donetsk actually publicly updates its losses every week — transparency that is unheard of in Russia. Russian dead by April 25 is actually at least 1744 and that’s a very significant undercount. Russia has at least four times as many people involved in the war as Donetsk Republic. Circa 160,000 vs 40,000. Its losses then are also likely quite a bit higher than those of Donetsk.
Lugansk Republic has a somewhat smaller population than Donetsk, and a smaller military. Perhaps 14,000 before the war, but also swollen by mobilization. (To let’s say double that.) If Donetsk has sustained 1635 military dead then around 1000 for Lugansk is realistic.
Russian war dead by now is well over 2000.
Coalition dead is then over 4500, likely over 5000 and that’s being conservative. (This still assumes Russia only suffered as many dead as the two mini Republics combined, which is quite possibly untenable.) Together with the wounded that would make for 20,000 casualties sustained by a force of 230,000. But primarily sustained by its frontline maneuver units numbering perhaps 80,000 for the Russians and 35,000 for the twin Donbass republics. Many of the wounded will have returned to service but nonetheless you’re looking at a situation where up to 1 in 6 have been casualties. (20K casualties vs 115K frontliners.)
This is after 72 days of fighting.
Of course, the Ukrainians are doing everything possible to report excess civilian deaths, but there is almost no reliable, realistic reporting as to Ukrainian military casualties. Just try to google it, and they certainly are not discussing it on the ultra partisan r/Ukraine fan Reddit. Ukrainian military losses are a state secret the west does not want publicized.
UK DD estimates mid-April were around 3,000 Ukrainian troops KIA, but in reality that number could probably count for just Mariupol alone. Considering the extensive use of artillery by the Russians, the real totals are probably 2-3x higher than this. Mostly likely around 5,000 to 7,000 KIA with x2 wounded. One interesting note was the activation for front line duty of 100,000 Ukrainian territorial defense forces, which are poorly armed and equipped local militia units comprised almost entirely of light infantry. If they are throwing in their 4th string defense units, it could mean their actual losses are MUCH higher than anything coming out of 'official' estimates.