Russia/Ukraine War Update - May 30th, 2022

 *** MILITARY SITUATION ***

Russian troops entered the outskirts of the Ukrainian city of Sievierodonetsk, Luhansk regional governor Serhiy Gaidai said in a statement issued early on Monday morning. Gaidai said “heavy battles” were taking place as Russian troops attack the city with all weapons and air support, and have entered its southeastern and northeastern areas.

Officials in eastern Ukraine say Russian shelling of Sievierodonetsk has been so intense that it has not been possible to assess casualties and damage, as Moscow closes in on the largest city still held by Ukraine in the Donbas. Fighting is believed to be taking place in the streets and “the entire critical infrastructure” of the city has been destroyed, according to president Zelenskiy. Ukrainian authorities have described conditions in Sievierodonetsk as reminiscent of Mariupol.

-Gleb Bazov, who was probably the single most valuable source of information from the ground in 2014, estimates the Russia-led coalition has so far suffered around 8,500 killed and perhaps 26,000 wounded.
    
His estimate for Ukrainian military deaths is 55,000 to 60,000 and up to 100,000 WIA.

These figures for Ukraine appear very high, but they begin to make sense when you consider the Ukrainians have, in the course of four rounds of mobilizations, activated almost every available male for military service. Also explains why they recently changed the rules and begin to deploy lightly armed and equipped territorial defense units to the front.

*** ECONOMIC & POLITICAL ***

-The Tass news agency is reporting that grain is being shipped from Kherson, which the Russians now occupy, to Russia. They quote Kirill Stremousov, deputy head of the military-civilian administration that has been imposed on Kherson, as saying “We have space to store (the new crop) although we have a lot of grain here. People are now partially taking it out, having agreed with those who buy it from the Russian side.” He is quoted as saying that the administration was working on the supplies of sunflower seeds to local and Russian processing plants.

-In the interview to Welt, no less, General Roland Kather (the German Representative at
NATO HQ Brussels) arrived at this conclusion:

"Die Russen haben lokal eine bedrückende Überlegenheit erzielt“

Translation: "The Russians have achieved an overwhelming local superiority." 

"Die Beurteilung der militärischen Lage dort ist für einen Außenstehenden sehr schwer. Es gibt viel Propaganda: Viel wird von Siegen gesprochen, viel von Raumgewinn. Das muss so sein, um die Motivation der ukrainischen Zivilisten und Soldaten auf einem hohen Niveau zu halten. Andererseits habe ich das Gefühl, dass sich die Russen doch zunehmend im Donbass festsetzen. Und das ist ja eines der großen Ziele. Stefanie Babst (ehemalige Nato-Chefstrategin, Anm. d. Red.) bezeichnet das als „Boa-Constrictor-Effekt“: Wie von einer Schlange werden die Ukrainer durch die Russen erwürgt. Ich fürchte, das wird noch lange so gehen, weil derzeit zwar tapfer und aufopferungsvoll unter Kenntnis des Geländes verteidigt wird. Aber letztendlich wird die Ukraine sowohl in puncto Quantität, also der Menge der russischen Soldaten, aber auch in Bezug auf die Qualität unterlegen sein."

Translation: "It is very difficult for an outsider to assess the military situation there. There's a lot of propaganda: there's a lot of talk about victories, a lot about gaining ground. This has to be the case in order to keep the motivation of Ukrainian civilians and soldiers at a high level. On the other hand, I have the feeling that the Russians are increasingly establishing themselves in the Donbass. And that's one of the big goals. Stefanie Babst (former NATO chief strategist, editor's note) describes this as the "boa constrictor effect": the Ukrainians are being strangled by the Russians like a snake. I'm afraid it will be like this for a long time to come, because at the moment people are defending bravely and self-sacrificingly while knowing the terrain. But in the end, Ukraine will be inferior both in terms of quantity, that is, the number of Russian soldiers, and in terms of quality."

-According to political scientist and military expert Carlo Masala, Russian President Vladimir Putin currently sees no reason for negotiations with Ukraine. Masala, Professor of International Politics at the University of the Bundeswehr in Munich, told the German Press Agency that Putin would only begin to negotiate seriously if he had to fear that he would lose more than he would win by continuing the war. But that is not the case at the moment. 

-Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskiy is set to address European Union leaders at an emergency summit later today to push for new sanctions against Russia. EU leaders will meet in Brussels to declare their continued support for Ukraine but have so far failed to agree on a new sanctions package against Moscow.

-Zelenskiy said he believed Russia would agree to talks if Ukraine could recapture all the territory it has lost since the invasion. However, he ruled out the idea of using force to win back his land.

-Ukraine’s President Zelenskiy visited troops in Kharkiv and toured the country’s second-largest city to see damage by Russian forces in his first official appearance outside the Kyiv area since the start of the war. “Kharkiv suffered terrible blows from the occupiers… One third of the Kharkiv region is still under occupation,” he said. According to local officials, over 2,000 apartment blocks have been wholly or partially destroyed by Russian shelling in the region.

-Zelenskiy said he has fired the head of state security service in Kharkiv for not working to defend the city, adding that “law enforcement officers” are now involved. “I came, figured out and fired the head of the security service of Ukraine of the (Kharkiv) region for the fact that he did not work on the defence of the city from the first days of the full-scale war, but thought only about himself,” the president said in his daily national address. “On which motives? The law enforcement officers will figure it out,” he added.

-Nato is no longer bound by past commitments to hold back from deploying its forces in eastern Europe, the US-led alliance’s deputy secretary general has said. Moscow itself has “voided of any content” the Nato-Russia Founding Act, by attacking Ukraine and halting dialogue with the alliance, Mircea Geoana told Agence France-Presse. Under the 1997 Founding Act, intended to reset the relationship between Russia and the Alliance, both sides agreed to work to “prevent any potentially threatening build-up of conventional forces in agreed regions of Europe, to include Central and Eastern Europe”.

-The “liberation” of Ukraine’s Donbas region is an “unconditional priority” for Moscow, while other Ukrainian territories should decide their future on their own, Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said according to a released from Russia’s foreign ministry.

-In a Saturday night speech Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky gave his most dire assessment to date of the status of Ukraine forces in the eastern Donbas region, where for over at least the last two months Russia has concentrated its forces, following the Feb.24 invasion of the country. Saturday marked the 95th day of the conflict. He described conditions there as "indescribably difficult" in what marks a notably pessimistic shift and negative tone for the Ukrainian leader, strongly suggesting the fall of Donbas - or at least whole regions such as Luhansk - could be imminent. He identified several intense ongoing battles in places with a large Russian force presence, including Severodonetsk, Lysychansk, Bakhmut and Popasna. Sievierodonets in particular is scene of fierce up-close street battles. "But our defense holds on," Zelensky sought to assure the public. "It’s indescribably difficult there. And I am grateful to all those who withstand this onslaught of the occupiers." As the AP describes of some instances of "close-quarter combat":

Ukrainian regional officials reported that Russian forces were "storming" Sievierodonetsk after trying unsuccessfully to encircle the city. The fighting knocked out power and cellphone service, and a humanitarian relief center could not operate because of the danger, the mayor said. Zelensky in the address also denounced what he called "absolutely senseless, openly barbaric strikes at the Sumy region," which left at least one person dead and seven wounded and two in critical condition, saying further mortars struck close to a kindergarten.

-Ukraine has started receiving Harpoon anti-ship missiles from Denmark and self-propelled howitzers from the United States. “The coastal defence of our country will not only be strengthened by Harpoon missiles – they will be used by trained Ukrainian teams,” Ukrainian defence minister Oleksiy Reznikov said.

-Poland has also agreed to send artillery to Ukraine, Polish state media reported.

-While Europe shuns Russian oil amid sanctions and expectations of an oil embargo on Russian oil imports, India and China have stepped up purchases and are importing record volumes of Russian crude, according to data from energy analytics company Kpler cited by Bloomberg on Friday.  Russia had up to 79 million barrels of crude either traveling on tankers or held in floating storage over the past week, Kpler’s estimates have shown. That’s more than double the 27 million barrels of crude Russia had seaborne in February, just before Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. Before the war, Russia was primarily selling its crude to Europe, but this is no longer the case after buyers, governments, international trading houses, and oil majors are all avoiding dealing with Russian oil, all the more so given the EU sanctions ban on bank transactions with the biggest Russian oil producers, including Rosneft. Trade majors have now wound down purchases of Russia’s oil. But China and India aren’t shying away from Russian crude, although some Chinese state giants haven’t ramped up imports of spot cargoes from Russia despite the steep discounts at which Russian oil is selling. In India, cheap Russian crude oil is attracting India’s price-sensitive buyers to the point that Russia became the fourth largest oil supplier to India in April, moving up from the 10th place in March, according to shipment-tracking data compiled by Reuters.

-The German economy minister, Robert Habeck, raised concerns that European Union unity on new sanctions against Russia is “starting to crumble”.

-Russia will continue to supply gas to Serbia, after a phone call between the Russian president and his Serbian counterpart. Aleksandar Vučić said he agreed a three-year gas supply contract with Putin, with further details to be finalised with producer Gazprom.

-Russia is continuing to ship gas to Europe through Ukraine, Gazprom has confirmed. The Russian gas producer said its supply via the Sudzha entry point stood at 44.1 million cubic metres, up from 43.95 on Saturday.

-The EU failed to agree on an embargo of Russian oil during talks on Sunday while debating whether to water down a ban on Russian oil imports to placate Hungary’s leader, Viktor Orbán, who is blocking the latest European sanctions.