*** MILITARY SITUATION ***
The more than month-long standoff at Mariupol's Azovstal steelworks plant is finally over, after for many weeks the siege of the large complex by Russian forces remained the focus of international headlines, and following a series of high-risk civilian evacuations, some of them under the auspices of UN and Red Cross emergency teams. The remnant hundreds of armed Ukrainian Azov battalion militants which had refused to come out have now surrendered in the Monday night hours. "Reuters saw about a dozen buses apparently carrying Ukrainian fighters leaving the plant on Monday. It was not possible to determine how many people were aboard."
Widespread reports say that some 300 Ukrainian fighters have laid down their weapons and emerged from the cavernous facility. "More than 260 Ukrainian soldiers were evacuated from the besieged Azovstal steel plant in the port city of Mariupol," Ukraine's Deputy Defense Minister Ganna Malyar said. Another "53 heavily wounded (soldiers) were evacuated from Azovstal to the medical mortgage near Novoazovsk for medical aid," according to Malyar's statement.
Azov issued a statement on Telegram saying they are "implementing the approved decision of the Supreme Military Command" in order to "save lives". And the Russian side has since confirmed that "An agreement has been reached on the removal of the wounded," according to a Russian defense ministry statement. "A humanitarian corridor has been opened through which wounded Ukrainian servicemen are being taken to a medical facility in Novoazovsk."
-Western military sources say that Vladimir Putin is involved in the war in Ukraine “at the level of a colonel or brigadier”. The Russian leader is reportedly so personally involved he is helping determine the movement of forces in the Donbas.
-Russian forces have shelled frontline positions in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas area as fighting becomes increasingly focused on Severodonetsk, the easternmost city still held by Ukrainian forces after more than 11 weeks of war.
A Day 82 Theater Update from Igor Ivanovich Strelkov telegram account:
-In Kharkov. The UA continues to try to completely push Russian forces and LPR reservists toward the Russian border. In some places (between Kazachia Lopan and Volchanski) the enemy has reached the border and the front now stretches along it. Over the past day, the situation has not changed fundamentally.
In Izyum: After a long and bloody meat grinder, Russian forces took full control of the ruins of Dolgenkoe village. Fighting around the settlement continues. The enemy is actively counter-attacking. Fierce battles also continued around the city of Liman, during which, over a few days, our troops advanced and liberated several settlements to its west and northwest. However, the city itself and its environs are stubbornly defended by the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Severodonetsk: As expected, the UA does not intend to surrender these cities without a long battle, even under the threat of encirclement. Which, however, is still far away. Stubborn fighting continues in the area north of Popasnaya with heavy losses on both sides.
Donetsk: In the Donetsk area, Russian troops and personnel units of the DPR Armed Forces yesterday attacked the outskirts of Staromihailovka (a suburb of Donetsk between Donetsk itself and Krasnogorovka) and are now conducting heavy bloody battles in this village. The situation in Maryinka is still not clear to me. There are no changes in the front in the Ugledar region – the city itself has been turned into another “fortress” and is ready for a long defense. I have very little information on the Zaporozhye, Krivoy Rog, and Nikolayev fronts. In general, as far as I can judge, the position of the parties has not changed significantly, although in the past few days the Armed Forces of Ukraine managed to slightly push Russian troops in places.
I must state with regret that the operation to defeat the enemy’s Donetsk grouping, widely publicized in late April-early May, FAIL. For more than two weeks of fierce fighting (which cost both sides very heavy losses), only tactical successes were achieved. Not a single large settlement was liberated (the exception is the city of Rubezhnoye, but the battles for it began before the offensive began). Probably, certain tactical successes will still be achieved before the moment when the enemy goes over to the counteroffensive. But it is already clear that Donbass will not be fully liberated before the beginning of summer. Probably, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will not even be thrown back from the suburbs of Donetsk.
And I cannot say that this result is unexpected for me. Vice versa. The art of war requires its adherents to strike where the enemy least expects them. In our case, the intention of the Russian command was so obvious, the terrain was so beneficial for the defending side, and the balance of forces was almost equal on both sides, that only … our General Staff could count on decisive success.
At the moment, our troops are drawn into exhausting offensive battles, as we continue to “play by the rules proposed by the enemy.” And the point is — not only and not so much in individual examples of “outstanding bungling” (such as forcing the North Donets river), but — in the fact that losses incurred in daily offensive battles (not ending in the defeat of the enemy) cannot be quickly compensated by trained replacements.
Meanwhile, the enemy continues to frantically prepare its strategic reserves. And where he will deliver his blows, when our troops finally “run out of steam” no one knows (although this can also be predicted, but I will not do this publicly… until I do).