Russia/Ukraine War Update - May 2nd, 2022

*** MILITARY SITUATION ***

Ukrainian TVD, Day 65-66

The 48hrs has seen Russian forces continue their integrated offensive along the Siverskyi Donets Line & Severodonetsk Salient. UKR forces have executed several successful counterattacks around Kharkiv.

Overall Assessment. Russian momentum may be nearing a critical inflection point. If successful Ukrainian counterattacks in the Kharkiv region continue it will force the Russians to shift already limited resources from the Severodonetsk-Donetsk OD to stabilize the Kharkiv OD.

With three tank brigades in the Severodonetsk-Donetsk OD concentrated against the Russian main effort from Izium to Popsana, the Ukrainians will be able to reverse Russian gains if they are forced to pull troops to secure their GLOCs to the north.

We once again see the Ukrainian General Staff employing the principal of continuity by exploiting Russian vulnerability in command & logistical support to keep Russian forces under unrelenting pressure through a well-executed mobile defense as they advance.  This pressure denys Russian forces the ability to regain equilibrium through their current offensive, as evident of the daily slowing progress of Russian forces. Ukraine’s mobile defense may be able to force the Russians to once again seek disengagement to prevent disaster.

Ukrainian forces continue to conduct successful counterattacks to the north and east of Kharkiv, slowly pushing Russian forces toward the Russian border and Siverskyi Donets. Russian forces in the area are not adequate to slow Ukrainian attacks. Recent Ukrainian attacks in east Kharkiv may be attempting to push Russian forces away from the Siverskyi Donets and towards the Russian border to improve conditions for an eventual push toward Velvkyi Burluk & Kupyansk.

Severodonetsk-Donetsk OD

Russian forces maintain a steady yet grinding pace in gaining ground against Ukrainian forces along the Siverskyi Donets Line. If steady success can be maintained, Russian troops may be able to achieve a breakthrough in the coming weeks. However, the recent redeployment of the 4th & 17th Ukrainian Tank Brigades to the Severodonetsk Salient provides a powerful combined arms reserve to blunt any Russian penetration of Ukrainian defenses. So far, Ukraine’s mobile defense throughout the Donbas region has sufficiently disrupted Russian attempts at a general breakthrough. Coupled with counterattacks in the Kharkiv area, Russia will find it difficult to continue sustained offensive action.

Russian forces have shifted their activity in the past 48 hours from expanding the Kherson defensive perimeter to consolidating gains made around Oleksandrivka and Tavriiske. It is likely Russia will still how their “KPR referendum” in early May.

-Russian forces are setting conditions to establish permanent control over the areas of southern Ukraine they currently occupy, either as nominally independent “People’s Republics” or by annexing them to Russia. Russian sources reported that stores in occupied Melitopol and Volnovakha are beginning to transition to using the Russian ruble.[1] British Defense Intelligence reported that the ruble will be used in Kherson City starting on May 1 as part of a 4-month currency transition scheme enacted by the occupation administration.[2] These measures, which are not necessary or normal in military occupation administrations, indicate that Russian President Vladimir Putin likely intends to retain control over these areas and that his ambitions are not confined to Donbas.

-Western and Ukrainian sources claimed that Russian President Vladimir Putin may announce a “general mobilization” of the Russian military on May 9th. British Defense Minister Ben Wallace claimed that Putin may make this announcement, although Wallace admitted this was a personal opinion and not based on intelligence.[3] Advisor to the Ukrainian President Mikhail Podolyak amplified Wallace’s claims and stated that a general mobilization on May 9 would be consistent with the economic imperatives faced by Russia as a result of the invasion of Ukraine.[4] ISW has no independent verification of these claims, which would not in any event generate large numbers of usable soldiers for many months.

-The Kremlin likely seeks to leverage its partners in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) to evade Western sanctions. The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that Russia is courting CSTO members to procure input goods and materials for dual-use technologies that Russia cannot directly purchase due to Western sanctions.[5] The GUR stated that this effort will increase CSTO members’ economic dependence on Russia and enable Russian sanction evasion by using third-party countries to re-export Russian products to international markets.[6] The GUR stated that the Russian Ulyanovsk Mechanical Plant is attempting to obtain German components needed for the production of Buk surface-to-air missile systems and Tunguska missiles via Kazakhstan. Western sanctions may need to target Russia’s partners in the CSTO and Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) customs union to prevent Russian sanctions evasion.

-Major General Andrei Simonov reportedly died after his command post came under artillery fire by Ukrainian forces on Saturday April 30. The bombardment also took out more than 30 Russian armoured vehicles, including tanks. Videos circulating on social media appeared to show the command post being hit by Grad rockets, fired from a multiple-launch rocket system.

-Russia’s defence ministry has confirmed an attack on an airfield near Odesa on Saturday. It said its forces had destroyed a runway and hangar at an airfield, which contained weapons supplied by the US and EU.

-The Western artillery flooding into Ukraine will alter the war with Russia, setting off a bloody battle of wits backed by long-range weapons and forcing both sides to grow more nimble if they hope to avoid significant fatalities as fighting intensifies in the east, U.S. officials and military analysts predict.

-The governor of the north eastern city of Kharkiv has urged people not to leave shelters on Sunday due to intense shelling. Posting on Telegram, Oleh Synyehubov said: “In connection with the intense shelling, we urge residents of the northern and eastern districts of Kharkiv, in particular Saltivka, not to leave the shelter during the day without urgency.”

*** ECONOMIC & POLITICAL ***

-Two explosions have taken place in the early hours of Monday in Belgorod, the southern Russian region bordering Ukraine, Vyacheslav Gladkov, the region’s governor has written in a social media post. “There were no casualties or damage,” Gladkov wrote, according to Reuters. On Sunday Gladkov had said one person was injured in a fire at a Russian defence ministry facility in Belgorod, while seven homes had been damaged. Posts on social media said fighter jets and loud explosions had been heard above the city. The Guardian was unable to verify the reports.

-Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party on Wednesday asked Prime Minister Fumio Kishida to consider doubling the country’s defense budget to an amount on par with 2 percent or more of its gross domestic product, citing the region’s increasingly complex and severe security environment. A set of proposals finalized by the ruling party last week, calling also for the development by the Self-Defense Forces of counterstrike abilities aimed at disabling enemy weapons, will serve as a basis for the government to update the National Security Strategy by the end of the year. The LDP’s push to allow Japan to fire upon and disable enemy missiles before launch from foreign territory and target command centers remains controversial given the country has long held an exclusively self-defense-oriented security policy position under its war-renouncing Constitution.

-There is growing concern farmers worldwide are reducing chemical fertilizer, which may threaten yields come harvest time, according to Bloomberg. The repercussions could be huge: Lower yields may exacerbate the food crisis. There are alarming signs commercial farmers in top growing areas in the world are decreasing the use of essential nutrients — nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium.

Revealed last week, SLC Agricola SA, one of Brazil's largest farming operations, managing fields of soybeans, corn, and cotton fields in an area larger than the state of Delaware, will reduce the use of fertilizer by 20% and 25%.

-Russia’s top uniformed officer, General Valery Gerasimov, visited dangerous frontline positions in eastern Ukraine last week in a bid to reinvigorate the Russian offensive there, the New York Times has reported citing Ukrainian and US officials.

-Adam Schiff, chairman of the US House Intelligence Committee, has told CNN “it’s only a matter of time” before US president Joe Biden visits Ukraine.

-Poland is participating in two large-scale multinational drills and is the host nation for one of them, the country’s Defense Ministry revealed on Sunday amid Russia’s allegations that Warsaw is preparing to occupy the western part of Ukraine. The Defender Europe 2022 (DE22) and Swift Response 2022 (SR22) will be conducted in nine countries including Poland between May 1-27, the Polish ministry said. “There will be approximately 18,000 participants from over 20 countries training together in both exercises. The portion of the exercises on Polish soil will see some 7,000 troops and 3,000 pieces of equipment,” the statement reads.

-Rep. Adam Kinzinger, a Republican from Illinois, announced on Sunday that he will introduce a resolution authorizing the use of military force should Russia deploy “chemical, biological and/or nuclear weapons” in Ukraine. Kinzinger has continuously pushed for US involvement in the ongoing conflict, and previously backed measures that critics and President Biden said would lead to a “third world war.” Kinzinger’s resolution would authorize the president to use the American military to “assist in defending and restoring the territorial integrity of Ukraine,” in response to a hypothetical Russian use of chemical, biological or nuclear weapons on Ukrainian soil.

-Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu claimed on Sunday that NATO has “no intention” of intervening in the Ukraine-Russia conflict, but vowed that his country would respond to any attack on a NATO ally. Throughout the conflict, Turkey has attempted to balance its relationship with both the alliance and Russia. “NATO's position is clear. The alliance has no intention of interfering in the Ukrainian conflict," Cavusoglu told reporters on Sunday after a trip to Latin America. However, Turkey’s top diplomat added that "in the event of the slightest attack on any ally, we will respond adequately.”

-“Moscow understands Ankara’s decision to close Turkish airspace to Russian planes flying to Syria,” said the official representative of Russian MFA Maria Zakharova at the briefing held today, APA’s Moscow bureau reports. “I would like to say that in fact, Ankara has appealed to the Russian side not to use this route for more than a month. The reasons for this appeal were clear to us, and at present, the Russian side does not use this route. But this is not today’s issue, it has been for about a month,” said the Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman.

-Putin is set to undergo an operation for cancer and will hand over power to his hardline spy chief, a Kremlin insider has reportedly claimed. it has been reported that 69-year-old Putin could soon vanish as he goes under the knife, with power transferred to Nikolai Patrushev. Patrushev, 70, is seen as a key architect of the Ukraine war strategy and the man who convinced Putin that Kyiv was awash with neo-Nazis. The claim was reported on Russian media outlet General SVR, which first raised issues of Putin’s health around 18-months ago. They quote an anonymous former high-ranking Kremlin military figure as saying: “Putin has discussed that he will be undergoing medical procedures.” In video in which the source, whose voice appears to have been disguised, reveals that “doctors insist that he needs an operation, but the date has not yet been determined”. “He will have surgery and while he is incapacitated,” he says, adding that he “thinks it'll be for a short time”. The source said the choice of spymaster Patrushev, which came after a two-hour “heart to heart” with Putin, was the “worst option”.

-Russian state TV simulated a nuclear strike on Europe, declaring there would be “no survivors” in a TV rant in response to UK support for Ukraine. Putin propagandists on TV recreated nuclear strikes on three European capitals, claiming the nukes would hit Paris, Berlin, and London in around 200 seconds. As tensions continue to ramp up amid the ongoing war in Ukraine, there’s growing concern that the rest of the world may be dragged into the fighting. In response to comments made by the UK’s Armed Forces Minister in support of Ukrainian attacks on Russia, hosts on Channel One’s 60 Minutes programme claimed the nukes could strike European capitals less than four minutes after being launched. The claims about Russia ’s nukes were made on the popular TV show which is one of the country's most watched.

-Russia and the West are closer to nuclear war than during the Cuban Missile Crisis, the great-granddaughter of Nikita Khrushchev has said. Nina Khrushcheva, an academic whose great-grandfather was leader of the Soviet Union during the 1962 standoff, warned the conflict in Ukraine is more dangerous because neither side appears prepared to "back off." Ms Khrushcheva said despite a "war of words" during the period of Cold War brinkmanship, both President John F Kennedy and Khrushchev agreed to de-escalate as soon as there was a real threat of nuclear action. Speaking on the Today programme, she said it was "clear" the current conflict was a proxy war between the West and Russia in which Ukraine is "to some degree a pawn". "We are closer to more issues, nuclear, than any other way, because I don't see today any side, particularly the Russian side, backing off, and that's what really scares me the most."

-Britain's security services were on high alert on Saturday amid fears Putin's army of saboteurs "could infiltrate the UK to attack key targets", it was claimed. Senior officers at MI5 - the UK's domestic counter-intelligence and security agency - are said to have warned Home Secretary Priti Patel and her team about the high-level threat from Russia. Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Chief of Staff Steve Barclay are also understood to have been told of the soaring threat to UK safety which could stem from Russia's intelligence service, the FSB. The fears have now reportedly forced the agency's special branch to ramp up the monitoring of all travellers into Britain, sources told the Sunday Express.

-Putin was last night on the verge of declaring all-out war on Ukraine as he prepares to mobilise more forces to step up his assault. The Russian president has previously referred to the invasion only as a “special military operation”. But he is now expected to openly use the word “war”. Military sources said he was planning to use his country’s Victory Day Parade in Red Square on May 9 to announce mass-mobilisation, enabling him to call up more men to fight. Putin is under growing pressure from generals to unleash an all-out war. It is reported that Russian top brass are furious about their defeat around Kyiv and they blame Putin for putting constraints on operations.

-China’s tough new lockdown measures have led to a major backlog of cargo and container ships in front of Shanghai's port. With employees unable to go to work, the world’s largest container port is having to manage with significantly fewer staff. Our chart shows the scale of the problem, using a map of the area on April 28, as provided by FleetMon, an online tracking portal for ships.

In terms of container throughput, Shanghai’s port is the largest in the world. 47 million 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs, unit of measure for container sizes) were handled there last year. To put this into perspective, the largest port in Europe is in Rotterdam, and had only 15.3 million TEUs handled there in that same year. This Statista graphic provides an overview of the world's largest cargo ports.

FleetMon uses ships’ Automatic Identification Systems (AIS) signals to display traffic volume. These are important in shipping for the exchange of navigational data via radio. Every ship over 20m has to transmit an AIS signal. It transmits, among other things, call name, vessel type, GPS position, dimensions and similar data.

-Two distinct camps have emerged among supporters of Russia’s “special military operation” in Ukraine. Broadly speaking, “pro-Russia” English-language punditry continues to be as chirpy as it was in the early hours of February 24: everything is going according to plan, Putin is purging the fifth columnists, victory is imminent, et cetera. A very similar narrative was prevalent (probably near-unanimous) among pro-military, “patriotic” commentators in Russia during the first month of the conflict.

However, by early April, Russian-language perspectives on the “special operation” began to come to terms with the reality that there would be no swift, decisive resolution. In Russia, fervent supporters of the conflict recognize their country is ill-prepared to fight a protracted war against the collective West. Some are now calling for Russia to transition into a wartime footing. “Everything for the front.”

Russian commentators are now warning mobilization is necessary in order to avoid a scenario in which a heavily militarized and forever-hostile “Anti-Russia” remains at Russia’s border—what Putin purportedly set out to prevent. The clearest example of this assessment-shift can be found at Voyennoye Obozreniye (Military Review). It’s a hugely popular website. Ranked as Russia’s #1 “national security” portal, and among the country’s top 100 visited websites, Military Review pulls in an impressive 37 million views per month (it has enjoyed a spike in traffic due to the events in Ukraine, but before the conflict began the site was still receiving a very respectable 20 million views/month).

Many, if not all, of the website’s contributors now openly advocate for Russian mobilization to put the entire Russian state on a war footing to facilitate the destruction of Ukraine (or to use their words: “the Ukrainian Reich”) as a political entity.

-Denmark and Sweden have said a Russian spy plane violated their airspace. From AFP: Officials said the plane entered Danish airspace on Friday evening east of the Danish Baltic island of Bornholm before flying into Swedish airspace. “The Russian ambassador is summoned to the foreign ministry tomorrow,” the Danish foreign minister, Jeppe Kofod, tweeted on Sunday, referring to a “new Russian violation of Danish airspace”. The Swedish foreign ministry also said the Russian ambassador would be summoned in Stockholm. “There exist established procedures for this kind of case. It concerns notably summoning the representative of the implicated nation to the foreign ministry,” it said in an email. Kofod added that it was “totally unacceptable and particularly worrying in the current situation”, alluding to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and rising tensions with Nato, of which Denmark is a member.

-While multiple European leaders have publicly proclaimed they won’t buy Russian gas in rubles as Russian President Vladimir Putin has demanded, 10 EU countries are technically going along with Putin’s plan, Hungarian official Gergely Gulyas told public radio on Sunday. According to Gulyas, these countries’ leaders aren’t admitting this in order to be seen as “being a good European.” Gulyas said that Hungary has opened a euro account with Russia’s Gazprombank, which then converts payments into rubles before transferring them to suppliers in Russia. This system allows European buyers to comply with Putin’s demand, made in late March, that “unfriendly” countries switch to Russia’s national currency to buy its natural gas. “There are nine other countries using the same payment scheme, but because today the idea of being a good European also means that the leaders of those countries are not honest when speaking either in the international arena or to their own people, the other nine countries won’t say that they are doing the same thing,” said Gulyas, who serves as Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s chief of staff.

- Serbia on Saturday publicly displayed a recently delivered Chinese anti-aircraft missile system, raising concerns in the West and among some of Serbia’s neighbors that an arms buildup in the Balkans could threaten fragile peace in the region. The sophisticated HQ-22 surface-to-air system was delivered last month by a dozen Chinese Air Force Y-20 transport planes in what was believed to be the largest-ever airlift delivery of Chinese arms to Europe. Although Serbia officially seeks membership in the European Union, it has been arming itself mostly with Russian and Chinese weapons, including T-72 battle tanks, MiG-29 fighter jets, Mi-35 attack helicopters and drones.

-Inside Transnistria, separatist authorities have kept quiet about the war raging in Ukraine. “Transnistria’s leaders are being cautious,” said the Moldovan journalist Alina Radu. “They are not cheering on the war, but nor are they criticising Russia’s military aggression.” Since the death of its Soviet-era industry, Transnistria’s economy has been dominated by a small elite. Russia provides Transnistria with free gas, which gives businesses in the region a competitive advantage over other businesses in Moldova.

-Russia’s online trolling operation is becoming increasingly decentralised and is gaining “incredible traction” on TikTok with disinformation aimed at sowing doubt over events in Ukraine, a US social media researcher has warned.

-The German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, has defended himself against accusations that his approach to Russian aggression has been hesitant, insisting his decisions followed close consultation with Germany’s allies and sought to avoid any suspicion that the country was “going it alone”. German chancellor Olaf Scholz has pledged to continue supporting Ukraine with money, aid and weapons, saying a pacifist approach to the war is “outdated.”

-Chuck Schumer, has said he plans to add provisions to the $33bn Ukraine aid package that will allow the United States to seize Russian oligarchs’ assets and send money derived from them to Ukraine.

-US House speaker, Nancy Pelosi, has become the highest-ranking US official to visit Ukraine since the outbreak of war, where she met president Zelenskiy. In a press conference afterwards, Pelosi said that the US would not be bullied. “If they are making threats, you cannot back down,” she said.

-One person was injured in a fire on a Russian defence ministry facility in the southern Belgorod region bordering Ukraine, Belgorod’s regional governor has said, Reuters reports. Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov said a local resident suffered minor injuries and his life was not in danger. Images posted to social media showed a large funnel of smoke rising above the ground. Reuters was not able to verify the reports.

-Oil prices recovered firmly above $100 per barrel this week despite the strict and ongoing lock-downs conditions in China and a very strong US Dollar. The push for lower carbon fuels has resulted in higher prices at the pump. The diesel market has been soaring recently but gasoline prices could catch up this summer.

-According to a new Rasmussen poll, when asked whether Biden or Russian President Vladimir Putin is to blame for higher fuel prices, "76% of Republicans think Biden bears most responsibility for higher fuel prices, as do 24% of Democrats and 54% of voters not affiliated with either major party."What's more, 84% of likely US voters believe the rising price of gasoline, home heating oil and other petroleum products is a 'serious problem.' 61% say it's a 'very serious problem.'

-Ukraine has the regular army, the reserve army, and the “National Guard” paramilitary police. All of these are better equipped and better trained than the Territorials. Territorial Defense is only the fourth tier of Ukraine’s fighting force. In peace its members work civilian jobs and train only very occasionally. In war they form light infantry units with no heavier equipment than mortars. (Albeit there is a video of them using an ancient 1960s 100mm anti-tank gun as makeshift field artillery.) There are two ways to interpret Ukraine sending what amount to militia units to the front. One is to say “the Ukrainians must have suffered very serious losses and are being pressed extremely hard if they’re having to patch the front with militias.” The other is to ask yourself what this reveals about Ukraine’s resolve. If deemed necessary Kiev does not balk at sending lightly-equipped civilians into the meatgrinder alongside conscripts and newly-mobilized troops. This is in stark contrast to Russia which is not mobilizing and won’t even touch its serving conscript soldiers. If Ukraine is demonstrating pragmatism, ruthlessness, determination and resolve, Russia is demonstrating the exact opposites. The primacy of Putin’s political calculation at home ahead of what the war needs.

-The evacuation of the Azovstal steel plant is ongoing, according to the UN. “It was agreed with both parties to the conflict that civilians who had been stranded for nearly two months in Azovstal - women, children and the elderly - will be evacuated to Zaporizka where they will receive immediate humanitarian support, including psychological services,” the United Nations said in a statement. “As the operations are still ongoing, we will not provide further details at this point, to guarantee the safety of the civilians and humanitarians in the convoy.” About 100 civilians have so far been evacuated from the plant in Mariupol in a joint mission by the UN and the International Committee of the Red Cross.

-NATO fighter jets were scrambled on multiple occasions in response to Russian aircraft which came near alliance airspace in the Black and Baltic Sea regions at a moment the Western alliance continues deepening its involvement in Ukraine via weapons shipments and intelligence-sharing. An official NATO statement said its fighters were sent to intercept Russian aircraft "multiple times over the past four days". "Allied fighter jets on NATO duty scrambled multiple times over the past four days to track and intercept Russian aircraft over the Baltic Sea and the Black Sea. All interactions occurred in a safe and routine manner," the statement from Brussels said. The intercepts have been ongoing over this past week. NATO officials said the alliance tracked an unspecified number of aircraft since Tuesday via radar. "Russian military aircraft often do not transmit a transponder code indicating their position and altitude, do not file a flight plan, or do not communicate with air traffic controllers, posing a potential risk to civilian airliners," NATO’s air command described in a statement.

Quick reaction fighters from Poland, Denmark, France and Spain made the intercepts in the Baltic Sea region. Meanwhile, Romanian and British aircraft scrambled from Romania to track aircraft in the Black Sea region, NATO said.

-The Biden White House now appears to be going all-in on the potential for Finland and Sweden seeking formal application for NATO membership, despite Moscow's recent repeat warnings that such an action would immediately ratchet nuclear tensions in the Baltic region. While previously issuing vague statements of positive support for the Scandinavian countries' discussions on the controversial issue - given especially that Finland shares an over 800-mile long border with Russia - on Thursday Secretary of State Antony Blinken took US support further by saying for the first time the Untied States would "strongly support" Sweden and Finland pursuing NATO membership.

-Lifting sanctions imposed on Russia is part of peace negotiations between Moscow and Ukraine, which are “not going well” but continue via videoconferencing on a daily basis, Lavrov said.Kyiv warned on Friday that talks on ending Russia’s invasion, now in its third month, were in danger of collapse.

-Russia's move to leave the International Space Station (ISS) was initially slated for 2025. The invasion of Ukraine and resulting Western sanctions have accelerated this departure. Bloomberg cites media reports from two Russian state news agencies — Tass and RIA Novosti — that head of Russia's space agency on Saturday announced Moscow will pull out of the ISS. "The decision has been taken already, we're not obliged to talk about it publicly. "I can say this only -- in accordance with our obligations, we'll inform our partners about the end of our work on the ISS with a year's notice," Roscosmos General Director Dmitry Rogozin said in an interview on state television.

-Solomon Islands Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare has accused Australia of being hypocritical in its opposition to the Pacific country’s recent security pact with China. He argued that Canberra had not consulted with its other partners last year when it unveiled a security deal with the US and Britain, known as AUKUS, which paves the way for Australia to acquire nuclear-powered submarines.

-Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenksy announced Wednesday that he's been formally invited to the G-20 which will be hosted in Bali, Indonesia. “Had talks with [Indonesian President Joko Widodo]. Thanked for the support of [Ukrainian] sovereignty and territorial integrity, in particular for a clear position in the UN. Food security issues were discussed. Appreciate inviting me to the G-20 summit,” Zelensky tweeted earlier in the week. President Widodo is currently serving as the G-20 chairman. And on Friday, Russia's President Vladimir Putin too has been confirmed to have been invited: "Putin confirmed in a phone call with Widodo he would participate in the summit, due to take place on Bali island, the Indonesian president said in a live-streamed address" - given also Russia is a longstanding G-20 member.

-British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss presents world affairs in an uncompromising ideological struggle between "democracy" and "authoritarianism." Her address on Wednesday night in London bordered on showing desire for war against Russia and China simultaneously. By first calling to "push Russia out of the whole of Ukraine," Truss described the conflict as "our war," then proceeded to turn to China and taunt Beijing that its rise "was not inevitable." demanding that they "play by the rules" and even arguing that NATO should defend Taiwan in a potential contingency. Truss once again called for a "a network of liberty" and urged to avoid economic dependencies on undesirable countries (again a reference to Russia and China).