Russia/Ukraine War Update - May 28th, 2022

*** MILITARY SITUATION ***

Russian forces began direct assaults on built-up areas of Severodonetsk on May 27 without having fully encircled the city and cut off the Ukrainian defenders. Geolocated videos confirmed that Chechen units seized a hotel located in the northern part of Severodonetsk on May 27. Severodonetsk Military-Civil Administration Head Oleksiy Stryuk reported that Ukrainian forces previously repelled Russian attacks on the hotel on May 26, but Russian forces captured the position sometime on May 27. Luhansk Oblast Head Serhiy Haidai said that Russian forces also conducted offensive operations just southeast of Rubizhne toward Severodonetsk. Russian forces also continued to push on Severodonetsk via Ustynka and Borisvske just 9km and 14km southeast of the city, respectively. The Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) falsely claimed that Russian forces cut off all routes and surrounded Severodonetsk, trapping Ukrainian units in the Severodonetsk cauldron, though this is untrue and Russian forces have not yet fully encircled Ukrainian defenders. Ukrainian sources differed on the extent of Russian advances, with Stryuk estimating that Russian forces have encircled approximately two-thirds of Severodonetsk’s perimeter and Haidai stating Russian forces have only reached the city’s outskirts.

Russian forces attempted to seize access to two highways east and northeast of Popasna on May 27 in a continued effort to partially disrupt Ukrainian GLOCs to Severodonetsk. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces continued assaults against villages adjacent to the T1302 highway from Bakhmut to Lysychansk, just northeast of Popasna. Russian forces also attacked east of Popasna to secure access to the T1303 highway to Lysychansk. Russian forces are likely prioritizing the Lysychansk direction, rather than advancing toward Bakhmut, to support Russia’s main effort operations in Severodonetsk.

Russia is tightening the noose on Ukrainian troops in the country's east. A fierce ground and artillery assault has seen Moscow's forces advance, and they now appear close to encircling the last two hold-out cities in Luhansk province — which together with neighboring Donetsk forms the Donbas region that has become the key focus of the Kremlin’s war. With Ukrainian officials voicing concern their troops are now outmanned and outgunned, this Russian push could prove a decisive moment in the conflict.

Russian troops have taken over the town of Liman in the northern Donetsk region, the government in Kiev admitted on Thursday evening. Ukrainian forces have reportedly withdrawn west-southwest towards Slavyansk. “We have lost the town of Liman,” Alexey Arestovich, adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, said in a livestream on Thursday. Though Arestovich cited “unconfirmed reports,” Russian military correspondent Alexander Kots posted a video of Russian troops in the city shortly thereafter, captioned “Liman is ours.” Ukrainian troops “fled” west and southwest, Kots added, while covering their retreat with artillery fire.

-Russian forces began direct assaults on built-up areas of Severodonetsk without having fully encircled the city and will likely struggle to take ground in the city itself.

-Russian forces in Lyman appear to be dividing their efforts—attacking both southwest to support stalled forces in Izyum and southeast to advance on Siversk; they will likely struggle to accomplish either objective in the coming days.

-Russian forces in Popasna seek to advance north to support the encirclement of Severodonestk rather than advancing west toward Bakhmut.

-Positions northeast of Kharkiv City remain largely static, with no major attacks by either Russian or Ukrainian forces.

-Russian forces continue to fortify their defensive positions along the southern axis and advance efforts to integrate the Kherson region into Russian economic and political structures.

-The besieged city of Sievierodonetsk in eastern Ukraine appears to be almost completely surrounded by attacking Russian forces. Russia has continued to make incremental gains in its offensive in the Donbas region, backed by withering shell fire. The regional governor of Luhansk, Serhiy Haidai, said Russian forces have surrounded two-thirds of Sievierodonetsk.

-Ukrainian authorities have issued differing statements about their control over the strategic city of Lyman in the Donetsk region. A presidential adviser said he had unverified information that Ukraine had lost Lyman, while Ukraine’s armed forces said Russian troops were trying to strengthen their positions in the city. The governor of the Donetsk region, Pavlo Kyrylenko, said there was heavy fighting around the city after Ukrainian troops withdrew to a new line of defence. Russian media reported that pro-Russian separatists had seized the city.

-President Volodymyr Zelenskiy speaking in a short video address said the situation in Donbas is “very difficult”. He said Russian forces are concentrated in the coastal region of Ukraine and using “maximum artillery” reserves. “We are protecting our land in the way that our current defensive resources allow,” he said. “And we are doing everything to strengthen them.”

*** ECONOMIC & POLITICAL ***

-The US and its allies have communicated to Ukraine the danger of escalation should the weapons provided by the West be used to attack targets inside Russia, according to an exclusive report by Reuters quoting anonymous officials on Thursday. However, Washington has not explicitly banned Kiev from doing so. The highly sensitive, behind-the-scenes discussions have “sought to reach a shared understanding of the risk of escalation,” according to the agency’s sources. “We have concerns about escalation and yet still do not want to put geographic limits or tie their hands too much with the stuff we're giving them,” said one of the three US officials who spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity. Only two officials were quoted by name, and it wasn’t clear what their relation to these discussions might be. Douglas Lute, a retired US Army lieutenant-general and Washington’s former ambassador to NATO, said that if Ukrainian troops struck deep inside Russia, “it would spark a divisive debate inside the alliance. And, of course, the alliance doesn't want that. And neither does Ukraine.”

-Ukrainian presidential advisor Alexey Arestovich resorted to obscene language to criticize those in the West urging Kiev to cede part of the country's territory to Russia for the sake of peace. “Go f**k yourselves with such proposals, you dumb f**ks, to trade Ukrainian territory a little bit! Are you f**king crazy? Our children are dying, soldiers are stopping shells with their own bodies, and they are telling us how to sacrifice our territories. This will never happen,” Arestovich said in an interview on Wednesday. Arestovich criticized the logic of “bleating” voices encouraging Ukraine “to curb its appetite” and to give Russia the territories it supposedly wants, as such concessions would allow Kiev to “establish a comprehensive peace and to return to business as usual.” Another adviser of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Mikhail Podoliak, took to Telegram on Wednesday to address “pro-Russian lobbyists in Europe.”

-U.S. refiners are operating at the highest operating rate since before the pandemic, but they are not expected to bring relief to the tight fuel market through major capacity expansions in the short term. Some of the biggest refiners are working on expanding the crude oil processing capacity at large existing facilities, but those additions will not fully offset the U.S. refinery processing capacity, which closed during and right after COVID. ExxonMobil, Valero, and Marathon Petroleum are currently working on the expansion at three large refineries, which will bring a combined 350,000 barrels per day (bpd) additional crude distillation capacity in the United States, Dylan Chase of Argus reports.

-the Chinese border city of Heihe, across Amur river from the Russian city of Blagoveshensk, sends these messages to its neighbors in Russia. The message is: Russia, we are with you. Once the authenticity of this is confirmed (TV Zvezda reported on that, BTW), this is a very nice neighborly gesture from Chinese in the city of Heihe. There are polls in China which testify to the fact that large majority of Chinese are really rooting for Russia against the combined West.

-Iranian soldiers seized two oil tankers flying the Greek flag in the Persian Gulf on Friday, while Tehran protested the confiscation of one of its own vessels in Greek waters earlier this week, calling it US “piracy.” Washington reportedly plans to sell the ship’s oil cargo, which was confiscated under sanctions targeting Russia. Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy troops used helicopters to board the tankers Delta Poseidon and Prudent Warrior on Friday, the industry monitor Lloyd’s List reported. The ships were “later escorted by naval vessels from international traffic lanes to Iranian waters a few miles off the coast,” according to the same source. The Greek Foreign Ministry confirmed the seizure of the two vessels and demanded their release.

-Two American warships and a French Navy vessel joined a German frigate in Helsinki on Friday. Finland has applied to join NATO and is holding a number of exercises with other nations. Sweden, a fellow aspirant, will host a major NATO drill next month. The USS Gravely, an Arleigh Burke-class guided missile destroyer, the USS Gunston Hall, a Whidbey Island-class dock landing ship, and the French Navy’s F70 type anti-submarine ship Latouche-Treville docked in the Finnish capital on Friday and will remain there till Monday, Finnish authorities reported. The warships have joined the German Navy ship the Sachsen, the lead in its class of air-defense frigates. It arrived in Helsinki on Wednesday, after taking part in a joint exercise with Finland’s Coastal Fleet earlier in the week.

-Former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger turned 99 on Friday and Ukrainian government-linked activists marked the occasion by adding his name to their Mirotvorets (‘Peacemaker’) website. Labeled “an accomplice in the crimes of the Russian authorities,” Kissinger was blacklisted after he called for a negotiated peace between Kiev and Moscow and a return to the pre-February status quo.

-Russia announced today that it expects to receive $14bn in additional energy revenue, reports AFP. Russia’s finance minister announced today that the country is set to receive one trillion rubles in additional oil and gas revenues this year, noting that the additional income will be spent on Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine. “We expect to receive up to a trillion rubles ($14.4 billion) in additional oil and gas revenues, according to the forecast that we have developed with the ministry of economic development,” said finance minister Anton Siluanov during remarks that were broadcasted on Russian state television. Siluanov further clarified that the money will be spent on “additional payments” to pensioners and families with children as well as to continue conducting a “special operation” in Ukraine, referring to Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.

-The UK’s prime minister, Boris Johnson, said Russia was making slow but “palpable progress” in Donbas. He said Ukraine should be supplied with long-range multiple launch rocket systems to help Kyiv’s embattled forces but stopped short of committing the UK to sending the powerful M270 rocket system, which Kyiv has been pleading for from Britain, the US and other Nato members for several weeks.

-A Democrat proposal to create a special task force for hunting down “white supremacists” in the US military and federal law enforcement agencies failed in the Senate on Thursday, after no Republicans voted for it. The ruling party invoked the recent mass shooting at a Buffalo, New York supermarket to argue such enforcement was necessary.

-Russia’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, has accused western countries of waging a “total war” on Russia and its people and culture. Western allies are “cancelling Russia and everything connected” with it, including banning Russian writers, composers and other cultural figures, he said at a ministry meeting.

-A top US Navy official has come up with an alternative to scrapping recently-built warships with design and mechanical failures that make them unworthy for Washington’s use: Selling the vessels to South American allies.

-Finland and Sweden are unlikely to become NATO candidate members at the group's upcoming summit on June 28-30 unless they fulfill Turkey’s demands, the bloc's Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg announced during a press conference with Spanish media on Thursday. The NATO chief acknowledged Ankara’s stance against the acceptance of Sweden and Finland into the bloc and called for Turkey’s concerns and demands to be discussed and resolved.

-Russia ‘planning full-scale victory in Ukraine by autumn’. The Kremlin is considering a second assault on Kyiv despite failing to capture the Ukrainian capital at the outset of the war, according to the independent news website, Meduza. Sources close to the Kremlin and inside the Putin administration said confidence has spread to the leadership of United Russia, the country’s ruling political party, that a full-scale victory in Ukraine is possible before the end of the year. 

One source said: We’ll grind them [the Ukrainians] down in the end. The whole thing will probably be over by the fall. Russia’s leadership has “minimum” and “maximum” thresholds for declaring a successful and completed “special military operation” in Ukraine, sources said. The bare minimum needed to declare victory is the complete capture of the Donbas region, according to sources, while the maximum goal would be the capture of Kyiv. The editor of the English-language edition of Meduza, Kevin Rothrock, said the report suggests that Ukraine is losing the “information war” for the first time since the invasion.

Kremlin officials are also sceptical that western countries can sustain their massive financial and military support to Ukraine if the war drags on, the website reports. Another source said: Sooner or later, Europe will tire of helping. This is both money and arms production that they need for themselves. Closer to the fall, they’ll have to negotiate [with Russia] on gas and oil, before the cold season arrives.

-Sergey Lapko, the Ukrainian commander who gave an interview to the Washington Post stating Ukraine soldiers were "living on one potato a day" has been removed from his post and arrested.

-The UN Security Council failed to reach common ground on new sanctions against North Korea (the DPRK), on Thursday. Washington proposed the penalties in the wake of Pyongyang's latest missile test this week, which came on the heels of US President Joe Biden's Asia tour. The vote took place just a day after North Korea was accused of test-launching its largest intercontinental ballistic missile and two others. Ahead of the vote, US Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield called for unity in the face of “a threat to the entire international community.” However, China and Russia vetoed new sanctions on humanitarian grounds, pointing to their futility and even “inhumanity,” as North Korea struggles to contain a massive Covid-19 outbreak.

-Fresh off of the US targeting a series of companies involved in an Iran-linked oil smuggling network, the US has now seized an oil tanker near Greece, taking the Iranian oil within to be sent to the US. The oil was on a Russian-operated ship, which had been singled out for US targeting in February. It was then called the Pegas. The company renamed the ship the Lana and was Russian flagged. Greece had impounded the Pegas and its Russian crew last month over the invasion of Ukraine, but ultimately released it. Neither the US nor Russia is commenting. Greece says the US informed them the oil was Iranian, and that the US hired a different ship to take the oil to America. Iran has summoned the Greek charges d’affaires and called the incident a "clear example of piracy." The US accused the tanker of loading 700,000 Bbls of oil from Iran in August 2021. The tanker mostly sent oil to China.

-Liz Truss, the UK foreign secretary, dismissed as completely unfounded reports emanating from Germany that an agreement exists preventing Nato members from delivering heavy weaponry to Ukraine. Some German defence ministers have claimed an informal agreement exists preventing Nato from sending high-quality heavy weapons to Ukraine, a claim that has been used to justify the slow pace of German arms support to Ukraine.

-The US general nominated to be the next commander of NATO suggested in a Senate hearing on Thursday that he may offer military options to facilitate grain exports from Ukraine and help break Russia’s blockade of Ukraine’s southern coast. When asked what NATO could do about Russia’s blockade, Gen. Christopher Cavoli, who currently serves as the commander of US Army Forces in Europe and Africa, said if he’s confirmed, he would "provide the military options required by our civilian leaders." "Clearly the way we would approach that would have to be a whole of government approach, which may or may not include a military component," he added. It’s not clear from Cavoli’s answer if he means the options would include the US confronting Russian warships or if the military would just be involved in assisting with alternate ways to ship grain. He went on to mention efforts being made to ship more Ukrainian grain by rail to ports in western Europe.

-The UK government has announced a temporary windfall tax on oil and gas giants to fund a relief package for households struggling with rising bills. Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak has previously resisted opposition parties’ calls for a windfall tax, warning about the impact it would have on future investment. But he has now been forced to unveil emergency measures to tackle the impact of soaring inflation, which has reached a 40-year high. Millions of households will receive a £400 ($504) discount off their energy bills. Around 8 million of the lowest income households will be sent a one-off payment of £650, and pensioners will receive a one-off £300 payment. To help fund the package, which will cost £15 billion ($19 billion), the government will introduce a 25 percent profit levy on oil and gas giants, which it expects to generate £5 billion ($6.3 billion) in tax revenues.

-Ukraine’s state gas company and operator have issued a request to the German government to either halt or severely curtail gas flows through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, Reuters reports. The request argues that the operation of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline is allowed under German law on the basis that it contributes to the strengthening of the security of gas supplies to Europe. However, Russia had “violated these principles”, the head of Ukraine’s gas system operator, Serhiy Makogon, said.

-Three suspected mercenaries from Britain and Morocco, who joined the Ukrainian military and were later captured by the forces of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR), could be facing the death penalty there, the republic’s General Prosecutor’s Office said on Friday.

-Greece and Cyprus would object to any proposal suggesting fast-tracking Ukraine’s accession to the EU, Euractiv reported on Friday, citing anonymous diplomats.

-Newly disclosed documents have shed a crack of light on secret executive branch plans for apocalyptic scenarios — like the aftermath of a nuclear attack — when the president may activate wartime powers for national security emergencies. Until now, public knowledge of what the government put into those classified directives, which invoke emergency and wartime powers granted by Congress or otherwise claimed by presidents, has been limited to declassified descriptions of those developed in the early Cold War. In that era, they included steps like imposing martial law, rounding up people deemed dangerous and censoring news from abroad.

Several of the files, provided to The New York Times by the Brennan Center for Justice, show that the Bush-era effort partly focused on a law that permits the president to take over or shut down communications networks in wartime. That suggests the government may have developed or revised such an order in light of the explosive growth in the 1990s of the consumer internet.

-US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken declared on Thursday that Washington's policy of strategic ambiguity toward Taiwan remains intact, despite President Joe Biden having promised to involve the US military in the event of a Chinese invasion. Blinken is the second senior Biden administration official to correct the president’s statement. Biden angered Beijing on Monday by declaring that despite abiding by the ‘One China Policy’, the US would involve its military in any potential conflict between China and Taiwan. Although the White House swiftly clarified that the president's words did not represent a change to the US’ long-standing recognition of China’s sovereignty over Taiwan, Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesman Wang Wenbin said that the US leader’s comments put him at “opposition to the 1.4 billion Chinese people.”

-On Thursday, the Pentagon said the State Department approved a potential sale of CH-47F Chinook helicopters and related equipment to Egypt worth about $2.6 billion. The Pentagon’s Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) said the sale is for 56 Chinooks, which come with installed M-240 machine guns. The principal contractor for the deal is Boeing.