Russia/Ukraine War Update - May 14th, 2022

*** MILITARY SITUATION ***

The Russian military has likely decided to withdraw fully from its positions around Kharkiv City in the face of Ukrainian counteroffensives and the limited availability of reinforcements. Russian units have generally not attempted to hold ground against counterattacking Ukrainian forces over the past several days, with a few exceptions. Reports from Western officials and a video from an officer of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) indicate that Moscow is focused on conducting an orderly withdrawal and prioritizing getting Russians back home before allowing proxy forces to enter Russia rather than trying to hold its positions near the city.

Ukraine thus appears to have won the Battle of Kharkiv. Ukrainian forces prevented Russian troops from encircling, let alone seizing Kharkiv, and then expelled them from around the city, as they did to Russian forces attempting to seize Kyiv. Ukrainian forces will likely attempt to disrupt at least the westernmost of the ground lines of communication (GLOCs) between Belgorod and Russian forces concentrated around Izyum, although Russia is using several GLOCs, including some further away from current Ukrainian positions than any Ukrainian counteroffensive is likely to reach soon. The terrain east of current Ukrainian positions may also favor the Russians attempting to defend their GLOCs, as large water features canalize movement and create chokepoints that the Ukrainians would have to breakthrough.

Russian troops continued efforts to advance all along the periphery of the Izyum-Donetsk city salient but made little progress. Russian forces attempted a ground offensive from Izyum that made no progress. We had previously hypothesized that Russia might give up on attempts to advance from Izyum, but the Russians have either not made such a decision or have not fully committed to it yet.[1] Small-scale and unsuccessful attacks on the southern end of the salient near Donetsk City continued but made no real progress.

The main Russian effort continues to be the attempt to encircle Severodonetsk and Lysychansk from the north and from the south. Russian troops attacking from Popasna to the north made no significant progress in the last 24 hours. Russian forces coming north-to-south have failed to cross the Siverskyi Donets River and taken devastating losses in their attempts. The Russians may not have enough additional fresh combat power to offset those losses and continue the offensive on a large enough scale to complete the encirclement, although they will likely continue to try to do so.

The Ukrainian defenders of Mariupol continue to fight despite the odds, although Russian attackers appear to have penetrated into the Azovstal facility.

-Russian President Vladimir Putin likely intends to annex occupied southern and eastern Ukraine directly into the Russian Federation in the coming months. He will likely then state, directly or obliquely, that Russian doctrine permitting the use of nuclear weapons to defend Russian territory applies to those newly annexed territories. Such actions would threaten Ukraine and its partners with nuclear attack if Ukrainian counteroffensives to liberate Russian-occupied territory continue. Putin may believe that the threat or use of nuclear weapons would restore Russian deterrence after his disastrous invasion shattered Russia's conventional deterrent capabilities.

Putin’s timeline for annexation is likely contingent on the extent to which he understands the degraded state of the Russian military in Ukraine. The Russian military has not yet achieved Putin’s stated territorial objectives of securing all of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts and is unlikely to do so. If Putin understands his military weakness, he will likely rush annexation and introduce the nuclear deterrent quickly in an attempt to retain control of the Ukrainian territory that Russia currently occupies. If Putin believes that Russian forces are capable of additional advances, he will likely delay the annexation in hopes of covering more territory with it. In that case, his poor leadership and Ukrainian counteroffensives could drive the Russian military toward a state of collapse. Putin could also attempt to maintain Russian attacks while mobilizing additional forces. He might delay announcing annexation for far longer in this case, waiting until reinforcements could arrive to gain more territory to annex.

-Donetsk continues to diligently update its war loss every week. (Lugansk, Russia and Ukraine continue to be mum.) In the seven days through May 12 another 78 Donetsk soldiers have perished. 495 were wounded. This is a relatively low number compared to other weeks. At times Donetsk has lost over 200 soldiers killed in a week. 78 Donetsk deaths could mean around 50 military Lugansk deaths. 128 combined Donetsk and Lugansk deaths could mean 250 Russian deaths. (Russians have at least twice as many maneuver units involved, probably more.) The total weekly death count for the entire coalition could be up to 400 (three times 128), but at least 250 (two times 128). I’d probably put my point estimate at 350 for the entire coalition for the week, or about 50 killed every day. (11 Donetsk, 7 Lugansk, 30 Russian.) That would also imply at least another 150 wounded each day.

-On two separate occasions units from the Ukrainian 79th Airborne withdrew from the front without order and refused to return. They complained of being poorly led by incompetent and cowardly officers. They complained about being poorly supplied and supported. They also complained about combat losses. The men are mainly reservists called up after February 24, but there are also contract soldiers among them. The 79th is fighting in Donbass along the Severodonetsk river to the east of Izyum. This sector has been one of the most active ones recently. It seems the 79th has been mauled heavily, but the unit remains in the field and has also inflicted casualties itself. (Eg 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

There has also been at least one instance of a unit from the Territorial Defense, the 101st from Transcarpathia, refusing to transfer to Donbass. They complain that they have not been properly equipped and trained for the job. And that transfer to Donbass wasn’t part of the deal when they signed up — originally territorial militias were guaranteed they would not be transferred out of their regions.

It is truly a shame that there has been such a self-imposed conspiracy of silence on the state of the Ukrainian military by Western reporters and commentators that prevents us from knowing more. Doubtlessly the Ukrainian military is suffering severe blows and is struggling to cope with a variety of problems, including unskilled or cowardly command and morale problems. Nonetheless it remains in the field, it continues to offer resistance, and it continues to make Russia’s aims very, very difficult.

*** ECONOMIC & POLITICAL ***

-The flow of US weapons to Ukraine might be cut off, at least temporarily, unless Congress quickly approves nearly $40 billion in new spending to help Kiev repel Russia’s offensive in the former Soviet republic, the Pentagon has warned. “May 19 is the day we really, without additional authorities, we begin to not have the ability to send new stuff in . . .,” Pentagon spokesman John Kirby told reporters on Friday. “By the 19th of May, it’ll start impacting our ability to provide aid uninterrupted.” Weapons shipments to Kiev wouldn’t immediately stop on May 20 without new funding because there would still be some supplies in the pipeline purchased under the approximately $100 million in spending authority that the Pentagon currently has remaining for Ukraine aid, Kirby said. However, he added, but by losing its ability to source new cargoes, the Pentagon would face “a period of time with nothing moving” if there’s an extended delay in the new funding approval.

-Finnish President Sauli Niinistö reportedly plans to call his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, to discuss the changed security situation in the region now that leaders in Helsinki have decided to join NATO. Niinistö commented on his planned outreach to Putin in an interview with Sweden’s TT news agency on Friday, one day after issuing a statement that Finland “must apply for NATO membership without delay.” The Kremlin has said that Finland’s accession to NATO would be a threat to Russia and that the US-led military bloc’s eastward expansion is undermining security in the region.

-The United States will send more than 10,000 soldiers to Europe, who are expected to replace forces deployed to the region following Russia’s attack on Ukraine, many positioned along the “eastern flank” of the NATO military bloc. Pentagon spokesman John Kirby confirmed the deployment during a Friday press conference, noting that the “security environment has now changed” in the region due to the conflict in Ukraine.

-US president Joe Biden expressed his support for the right of Finland and Sweden “to decide their own future, foreign policy, and security arrangements” in a call with his Finnish counterpart, Sauli Niinistö, and Sweden’s prime minister, Magdalena Andersson.

-India is banning wheat exports in a bid to protect the country’s food security, the government has said. The “sudden spike” in global wheat prices put the food security of India, neighbouring and other vulnerable countries at risk, the Directorate General of Foreign Trade said.

-Russia CUTS electricity to Finland: Moscow-run state energy company says it will stop supplying Helsinki tomorrow over 'payment issues' amid tensions over NATO. RAO Nordic has said it will suspend its electricity import to Finland from May 14. The supplier firm is a subsidiary of Russian state energy holding Inter RAO. This is due to RAO Nordic not being able to pay for imported electricity, it said. Blamed suspension on not having received payments for electricity sold in May. Finland was preparing for Russia to cut off electricity supplies early today due to its failure to pay the provider. Russian state-owned power firm Inter RAO will stop exports because it has not been paid for energy sold via the pan-European exchange Nord Pool since May 6. No reason was given for the non-payment. It comes as Finland prepares for Moscow to cut gas supplies in retaliation for the country making moves to join Nato.

-A Chinese intelligence ship was tracked off Australia's west coast within 50 nautical miles of a sensitive defence facility, Australia said on Friday, raising concern amid an election campaign about China's behaviour in the region. Prime Minister Scott Morrison said the Chinese navy vessel was not in Australian territorial waters but its presence was "concerning". "It is clearly an intelligence ship and they are looking at us and we're keeping a close eye on them," he told reporters. Australia had tracked the spy ship over the past week as it sailed past the Harold E Holt naval communications station at Exmouth, which is used by Australian, U.S. and allied submarines.

-PRESIDENT Xi Jinping is suffering from a deadly brain aneurysm, reports claim - as he faces a coup over China's devastating Covid lockdowns. The Chinese president, 68, reportedly wanted to be treated with traditional medicine rather than undergo major surgery after he was rushed to hospital. According to news agency ANI, Xi suffered the "cerebral aneurysm" at the end of 2021. Rumours about the state of Xi's health have been swirling for years, with fresh speculation sparked by his unexplained absence from the Beijing Winter Olympics. In March 2019, during a visit to Italy and France, Xi was spotted with a noticeable limp and needing help while trying to sit down. And addressing the public in Shenzhen in October 2020 - at the height of the Covid pandemic - observers noted his slow speech and coughing. Fears of a coup over Xi's extreme Covid lockdown measures have also been mounting. Instead of learning to live with the virus, the totalitarian regime's response to the pandemic is to instead aim to have zero cases with tightly shut borders, mass testing and sweeping quarantines. And this week, the Politburo Standing Committee warned people not to question the strict policies that have locked down cities across the country.

-Rumours of a looming Covid lockdown in Beijing has sparked panic-buying among residents of the Chinese capital – and stoked fears an even greater supply chain disaster could hit the world in the months ahead. Shanghai’s 25 million-odd residents have struggled through six weeks of brutal lockdown as China reels from the biggest Covid outbreak since the start of the pandemic in 2019. However, while Beijing citizens have faced pandemic restrictions over the years, they’ve never been plunged into a full lockdown before. But that could be about to change, with a growing outbreak in the city prompting spooked locals to buy up staples in preparation for the worst.

-As a stealth wave of COVID-19 makes its way across the U.S., those who have so far evaded the virus are now falling ill — while others are catching COVID-19 for a second, third or even fourth time. Several factors have conspired to make the state of the pandemic harder than ever to track. The rise of at-home tests, which rarely make it into official case numbers, have made keeping accurate count of positive cases impossible. Additionally, many U.S. states and jurisdictions are now reporting COVID-19 data only sporadically to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Earlier this week, Washington, D.C., reported case data to the agency for the first time since April. This has happened just as new, more contagious subvariants of omicron are making their way through the U.S. population, leading not only to rising first-time COVID-19 cases but also frequent reinfections.

COVID CASES USA 7-DAY AVG
88,545 MAY 12 2022
35,483 MAY 12 2021

-The Texas grid operator called on residents to conserve energy Friday after six generation facilities tripped offline amid hot weather, prompting power prices to spike. The power-plant failures resulted in a loss of about 2,900 megawatts of electricity, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas said in an email statement Friday. That’s enough power for about 580,000 homes and businesses. Natural-gas fired plants make up all of the generation that failed, an Ercot spokesman said. Naureen S. Malik and Mark Chediak. The Texas grid is being stressed by high heat in a potential preview of peak summertime demand.

-North Korea may return to testing nukes before the month’s end for the first time since 2017, White House press secretary Jen Psaki said during a press briefing on Thursday. The prediction was “consistent with the DPRK’s recent public statements and destabilizing actions, including the test launch of multiple intercontinental ballistic missiles,” she continued.

-Samsung Electronics is preparing to increase prices for chip contract manufacturing in the second half of this year which comes as no surprise given skyrocketing cost pressures eating away at the company's margins. Samsung's contract-based chip prices are set to increase between 15-20% given the level of manufacturing complexity, Bloomberg said, citing people familiar with the matter, adding the new pricing model has been discussed and negotiated with clients. Samsung's decision comes as the cost of energy, raw materials, equipment, freight, and labor are rapidly soaring. The move was "inevitable," said Masahiro Wakasugi, a Bloomberg Intelligence analyst. Another component driving the price hikes is the ongoing global chip shortage.

-The top Democrat and Republican in the US Senate joined forces in a rare moment of unity on Thursday in an attempt to pass $40bn in aid for Ukraine, only to be stymied by a single Republican lawmaker: the Kentucky libertarian Rand Paul. Faced with the prospect of an extended delay for the package that passed the House of Representatives on Tuesday, the Senate majority leader, Chuck Schumer, and his Republican counterpart, Mitch McConnell, sought to move forward on the aid package only to be blocked by Paul, a fiscal hawk who objects to the amount of spending proposed. The stalemate delayed passage of the measure into next week. The Senate has scheduled an initial procedural vote on the bill for late Monday afternoon.
 
-Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan remarked to journalists after leaving Friday prayers in Istanbul that Turkey would not welcome either Sweden or Finland joining the Nato. “We are currently following developments regarding Sweden and Finland, but we don’t feel positively about this,” he said. “We don’t want to commit a mistake,” he added. “Scandinavian countries are like guesthouses for terrorist organisations. To go even further, they have seats in their parliaments too.” Accession to Nato requires consensus from all member countries.

-Germany said Russia is using energy as a “weapon” after Moscow reduced natural gas supplies in retaliation for Europe’s penalties over the war in Ukraine.A unit of Gazprom PJSC that was seized by Germany has had its deliveries reduced by about 10 million cubic meters a day, according to German Economy Minister Robert Habeck. While the move appears to be largely symbolic -- amounting to about 3% of Germany’s Russian gas imports, according to Habeck, the Kremlin is showing it won’t shy away from squeezing its largest customer. Benchmark gas prices in Europe surged more than 20%. “The situation is escalating to the point that the use of energy as a weapon is becoming a reality,” Habeck told reporters on Thursday in response to Russia’s move. On top of the German standoff, shipments to Europe via Ukraine were curtailed on Thursday after a key cross-border entry point was put out of action because of troop activity on the ground, according to Kyiv. Moscow’s counter-sanctions also targeted a pipeline that crosses Poland, removing a potential backup route for European customers to receive Russian gas.

-Georgia’s breakaway region of South Ossetia will hold a referendum on joining Russia on 17 July, the region’s leader, Anatoly Bibilov, has announced. South Ossetia was at the centre of the Russian-Georgian war in 2008 after which the Kremlin recognised the territory – along with another separatist region, Abkhazia – as an independent state and stationed military bases there.

-The US defence secretary, Lloyd Austin, spoke to his Russian counterpart, Sergei Shoigu, for the first time since before the invasion began, the Pentagon said. Austin “urged an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine and emphasised the importance of maintaining lines of communication”, the Pentagon press secretary, John Kirby, said.

-The EU could agree on a phased embargo on Russian oil next week, despite concerns about supply in eastern Europe, according to diplomats and officials. A senior EU diplomat told Reuters an agreement could come as early as Monday when EU foreign ministers meet in Brussels. A third diplomat said there was a chance of an agreement later in the week.

-A senior Taiwanese official has urged Australia and other “like-minded” countries to be wary of Chinese military ambitions in the Indo-Pacific, citing a recent security pact signed with the Solomon Islands and Beijing’s alleged creeping “authoritarianism” in the region. Speaking during an interview with Australia’s SBS News on Friday, Taiwanese Foreign Minister Joseph Wu argued that China had expanded its influence into Canberra’s sphere of interest, calling on local officials to devote more energy to the alleged threat.