Russia/Ukraine War Update - May 5th, 2022

*** MILITARY SITUATION ***

Analyzing Breakthrough Operations in the Donbas.

A closer look at the state of operations along the line of operations ranging from Izium to Popasna in east Ukraine to gain a better understanding of what it will take to achieve a decisive breakthrough.  A brief analysis of what seems to be the overall direction of operations by the Russian military in what is clearly the decisive terrain in east Ukraine – the convex line running from Izium through Siverskyi Donets to the Severondontsk Salient.

This portion of the Donbas front is the key to ultimate victory or defeat in the east. There has been a lot of discussion lately, both online and in the media, of the trajectory of Russian operations and what they may accomplish. May 9 is seen as an important waypoint for Russia, whether this is an actual deadline is debatable.  

Let us look at the balance of forces currently engaged in the Severodonetsk-Donetsk OD & their likely mission set.

The most recent geolocation data places at least 60x BTGs in the Severodonetsk-Donetsk OD. 51x BTGs are arrayed from Izium to Popsana.

Of the known Ukrainian forces in the Severodonetsk-Donetsk OD, pre-war tables of organization allocate 61x Maneuver Battalions & 20x Territorial Defense Battalions in the Donbas. 37x Maneuver & all 20x Territorial Defense Battalions are currently arrayed from Izium to Popsana. The number of Ukrainian BNs have likely changed due to attrition. However, these numbers give us a picture of the balance of forces.

Russia has struggled, and continues to struggle, with properly resourcing & sustaining their war effort, but the Russian military clearly sees the Severodonetsk-Donetsk OD, in particular the Siverskyi Donets line, as decisive terrain to control. To do this Russia has to accomplish the integration & synchronization of the preponderance of their forces in time & space through strategic movement, successively, upon decisive points & key points of communication without compromising their own.

Here is a model of what this would look like. Key to successfully obtaining integration & synchronization of mass in time & space is the ability to arrange forces & combat multipliers (aviation, artillery, cyber, ADA, engineers, etc.) at the proper time with ample energy.


This last part is the crucial element of combined arms maneuver. Here is the same graphic but arrayed with what I surmise is the Russian operational plan. April 24 is my mark on the wall for when general large-scale offensive operations began in earnest in the Donbas.


Using May 9 as a key date for the Kremlin to declare some sort of “victory”, Russian forces only had 16 days to reach their operational objectives. As you can see, if May 9 is indeed a mark on the wall to measure Russian success, they are way behind the power curve.  It is not likely at this point for Russia to achieve some sort of positive or negative breakthrough by May 9, if this is indeed a key date in Russian operational planning. Still Russia is gaining ground through slow incremental advances.

Russian forces have marginally improved at conducting large-scale operations with forces moving along mutually supporting routes of advance, employing for effective recon by force techniques to engage & maneuver against Ukrainian defenses supported by air & artillery. Though poor morale, logistical issues, manpower shortages, poor leadership still plague Russian operations, the immediate obstacle to their success is the Ukrainian military & resolve. This more than anything else, is what is slowing Russian progress.

Ukraine has reinforced and fortified prepared defensive positions. These points are capable of withstanding prolonged air & artillery strikes. With excellent morale and leadership, it will be difficult for Russian forces to breach their defenses. Video showing Russian artillery strikes on a Ukrainian defensive position in Donetsk. The position looks well-fortified and the soldiers are likely underground.

Here is a look at division opposed rates of advance against fortified, prepared, and hasty defenses based on historical combat data. As you can see, historical daily advance rates for mechanized forces against intense resistance is slow.


Let us now look at a variant of the space/time/mass maneuver model. This is aligned with a traditional Russian doctrinal template advancing along multiple axes to split defenders into separate or isolated groups to be destroyed in detail while striking deep into secure areas.


 

Again, if May 9 is/was a target date for Russian forces in this OD, they should uniformly at or approaching the 20km line indicated in this graphic. Russian forces are not near this point. The grueling pace of Russian daily advances are consistent with HERO historical data.

Here is one more data point to support this:

Even though the QJM shows Russia has an advantage in combat power and should be able to achieve a breakthrough there is a lot working against this effort. As noted at the top of this thread the Ukrainians have a greater number of maneuver BNs to blunt advances. Still we could see a situation that ends up like this by late May/early June if Russian forces are able to continue to make incremental progress. This would be the best situation the Russians could hope for now. Reaching this point will culminate what force they have left.

The Summer may see a long-drawn-out siege of the urban cluster ranging from Kramatorsk to Lysychansk. Either way there is still a lot of bloody hard fighting to go before either side has a definitive battlefield advantage in the Donbas.

Looking at the battlefield operations up close looks very dauting from a Ukrainian perspective. 

It could be a long summer.

-Ukrainian defenses have largely stalled Russian advances in Eastern Ukraine. Russian troops conducted a number of unsuccessful attacks in Eastern Ukraine on May 4 and were unable to make any confirmed advances. Russian forces attacking south of Izyum appear increasingly unlikely to successfully encircle Ukrainian forces in the Rubizhne area. Ukrainian forces have so far prevented Russian forces from merging their offensives to the southeast of Izyum and the west of Lyman, Slovyansk, and Kramatorsk, as Russian forces likely intended.

-Russian forces reportedly entered the Azovstal Steel Plant – rather than its outskirts – for the first time on May 4. The extent of this Russian advance remains unclear, and Russian forces likely face further costly fighting if they intend to clear the entire facility. The Kremlin likely hopes that the successful capture of Azovstal through a ground assault will cement the Kremlin’s growing effort to claim complete control of Mariupol by May 9, with Russian propagandists recently arriving in the city to set conditions for further claims of a Russian victory. The Kremlin likely intends to claim some sort of victory in Mariupol to present a success to the Russian people, though Russian forces are highly unlikely to halt offensive operations across Ukraine on this date.

-Russian forces intensified airstrikes against transportation infrastructure in Western Ukraine on May 4 but remain unable to interdict Western aid shipments to Ukraine. Six Russian cruise missiles hit electrical substations near railway stations in Lviv and Transcarpathia (the southwestern Oblast of Ukraine) on May 4. A senior US defense official reported that Russian aircraft conducted 200 to 300 airstrikes largely targeting transportation infrastructure in the last 24 hours. The US official added that these Russian strikes are likely intended disrupt Ukrainian transportation capabilities and slow down weapon re-supply efforts but have been unable to do so.

-A significant Ukrainian counter offensive has pushed Russian forces roughly 40km east of the city of Kharkiv, the institute for the study of war has said in its latest intelligence report. The counter offensive could set conditions for a broader operation to drive the Russians from most of their positions around the city, the organisation added.

-Ukraine Passes Law Making 100,000 Territorial Defense Militias Deployable Across Country

1. It means that Ukraine has broken its words to its Territorial volunteers that they wouldn’t be sent to fight outside their regions. The Soviet Union did the same to its Opolchenie militias in 1942 who were eventually pressed into the Red Army and Imperial Russia partially did the same to Opolchenie in 1812.

2. It means that Territorial Defense can not become a safe haven for shirkers. Until now there was a theoretical path where volunteering for the Territoral Defense kept you safe from the front and from conscription at the same time.

3. It means that at a swoop Ukraine gains over 100,000 fighters it can deploy anywhere in the country. These are just light infantry formations without organic artillery backing except for mortars. Nonetheless, they can be useful if placed into cities or if paired with heavier units.

4. Mostly it shows Ukraine’s resolve to do everything it takes to win this war, or come as close to winning as possible.

Russia truly hates the humble Zatoka bridge. It has now hit it *for the third time*, supposedly severing it. This leaves Ukraine’s Budjak region technically cut off from Ukraine (except through Moldova). More importantly, it severs a railway by which Ukraine was importing a lot of fuel via Romania. However, despite the persistent bullying of the poor Zatoka bridge, Russia still ignores the even more strategic bridges over the Dnieper. Why the discrimination? Some bridges’ lives matter apparently. Instead Russia has hit railways in western Ukraine once again, specifically the electrification infrastructure (once again).

*** ECONOMIC & POLITICAL ***

-A Russian army helicopter violated Finland’s airspace on Wednesday, the Finnish defence ministry said, as the country mulls a potential Nato membership bid. “The aircraft type is a Mi-17 helicopter and the depth of the suspected violation is about four to five kilometres”, a ministry spokesman told AFP. The incident occurred on Wednesday at 10:40am (7:40 GMT). This is the second Russian airspace violation this year, following a previous one in April, both of them coming in the wake of the war in Ukraine.

-Taiwanese defense officials have been forced to regroup on plans for artillery forces after being told that the US has pushed back the estimated delivery date for 40 howitzer systems by at least three years as Washington races to supply more weapons to war-torn Ukraine. Taipei’s $750 million order was “crowded out” of US production lines, delaying delivery to 2026 at the soonest, rather than starting in 2023 as planned, Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense said on Monday. As a result, the ministry is looking at other available weapons systems, such as truck-based rocket launchers produced by Lockheed Martin Corp., to fill the void and will submit a budget proposal once a decision has been made.

-Sweden has received assurances from the US that it would receive support during the period a potential application to join Nato is processed by the 30 nations in the alliance, the Swedish foreign minister, Ann Linde, said in Washington.

-The European Union is proposing to ban all Russian oil imports in a sixth package of sanctions. The European Commission’s president, Ursula von der Leyen, said Putin had to pay a “high price for his brutal aggression” in Ukraine. Hungary’s international relations minister, Zoltán Kovács, said his country would veto the EU proposal.

-Russia has said its forces practised simulated nuclear-capable missile strikes in the western enclave of Kaliningrad, sandwiched between Poland and Lithuania along the Baltic Coast. Russia practised simulated “electronic launches” of nuclear-capable Iskander mobile ballistic missile systems on Wednesday, the defence ministry said in a statement. The Russian forces practised single and multiple strikes at targets imitating launchers of missile systems, airfields, protected infrastructure, military equipment and command posts of a mock enemy, AFP cited the statement as saying. After performing the “electronic” launches, the military personnel carried out a manoeuvre to change their position in order to avoid “a possible retaliatory strike,” the defence ministry added. The combat units also practised “actions in conditions of radiation and chemical contamination”.

-90% of howitzers long-ranged weapons that were pledged to Ukraine have been transferred said a senior US defence official, reported CNN.

-Ukraine’s foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, has made a cheeky quip at the delay in some western governments to provide military aid. Stocks of Soviet-era weapons dwindle, but Russian aggression does not. This is why Ukraine shifts to modern equipment. Training is required, but we are fast learners. In fact, we learn to operate modern weapons faster than it takes some governments to decide upon providing them.”

-Russia, which has continued to refer to its war in Ukraine as a “special military operation”, denied rumors that it will use an upcoming parade to declare war against the country.

-Reuters reports that Ann Linde, Sweden’s foreign minister, said Antony Blinken, the US secretary of state, assured her Sweden would receive support during the period a potential application to join the alliance is processed. Sweden, as well as its neighbor Finland, stayed out of Nato during the cold war, but the countries are now rethinking security policies after Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea in 2014 and invasion of Ukraine.

-Days ago Russia’s foreign minister issued a formal appeal to the United States to immediately halt the supply of Western arms to Ukrainian forces if they are “really interested in resolving the Ukraine crisis.” “If the US and NATO are really interested in resolving the Ukraine crisis, then first of all, they should wake up and stop supplying the Kyiv regime with arms and ammunition,” Sergey Lavrov had said. On Wednesday Russia's Defense Minister has repeated the warning that the military will now actively target for destruction any inbound weapons shipments identified in Ukraine.

-on Tuesday Russia launched a large number of cruise missiles apparently targeting railway and electrical infrastructure in various regions of Ukraine, including in the Western city of Lviv, knocking out power to large swathes of the city for hours overnight. Ukraine's military command previously commented that targeting rails has been part of ongoing Russian efforts to completely disable the country's military transport infrastructure, specifically with an eye on foreign arms transfers. Kiev and the UN have also condemned attacks on civilians and vital civilian transport at a time of unprecedented numbers of internally displaced war refugees.

-Contact has been lost with the Ukrainian forces holed up in the Azovstal steel plant in the besieged city of Mariupol amid fierce battles with Russian troops, Mariupol’s mayor, Vadym Boichenko, said.

-Hungary will not support the EU’s proposal to ban Russian oil imports over the next six months, the country’s foreign minister, Peter Szijjarto, said.

-The European Union is proposing to ban all Russian oil imports in a sixth package of sanctions. The European Commission’s president, Ursula von der Leyen, said Putin had to pay a “high price for his brutal aggression” in Ukraine, while acknowledging the demands from countries such as Slovakia and Hungary for additional flexibility.

-Concerned about sweeping Russia-style sanctions from the west, Beijing has ordered a comprehensive “stress test” to study the implications of a similar scenario for its economy. According to a person with direct knowledge of the matter, an extensive exercise began around late February and early March when western allies imposed unprecedented sanctions against Moscow. Several key Chinese government agencies – from banking regulation to international trade – have been asked to come up with responses if the west imposed the same embargos on to China. “Those involved in this exercise use how Russia was treated as a baseline for China’s own policy response should it be treated in a same fashion by the west,” the person added. “This stress test involves a range of methodology, including modelling.” Beijing did not specify why it had asked its vast bureaucracy to carry out such an exercise, the person said. They said that it was a “natural reaction” from Beijing given its close relationship with Moscow.

-Vladimir Putin has officially declared a state of emergency in the Belgorod region for 60 days. Reason: The Russian Federation is "under attack" from either foreign military, mercenaries of that foreign military, or terrorists."

-Russia has said it will boycott a UN Security Council meeting set for Wednesday with the EU’s Political and Security Committee (PSC).

-The UK has said it will ban the export of services including accountancy, consultancy and PR advice to Russia in the latest attempt to isolate the country’s economy after the invasion of Ukraine – but lawyers will still be able to service Russian clients. The foreign secretary, Liz Truss, announced the “ban on services exports to Russia” in a press release on Wednesday. It is thought that the measures will not take effect for several weeks.

-On Tuesday multiple media correspondents reporting from the western Ukrainian city of Lviv said they heard several large blasts in the evening hours. It has since emerged that railway power substations are coming under attack, after the Kremlin last week indicated its military would ramp up efforts to thwart Western arms deliveries into Ukraine. Ukrainian Railways has announced Tuesday night that a number of trains are delayed after the blasts. "In particular, trains have been detained at the entrance to Lviv, information is being updated," a statement from the rail authority quoted by CNN said. The attacks, which are being called the biggest cruise missile strikes on Lviv and perhaps across Ukraine since the war's start, have knocked out power and internet to parts of the city. Vital power and train stations have also been hit in other key areas of the country Tuesday night (local time). Traffic throughout the city also came to a halt, correspondents on the ground noted. Largescale strikes on Lviv have been a rarity throughout Russia's over 2-month long invasion, given the major Western city's distance from the frontlines of fighting, which remains in Donbas as well as to the south.

-Ukraine’s parliament, the Verkhovna Rada, has passed a law that bans political parties that justify, recognise or deny Russia’s armed aggression against Ukraine. The law will also ban parties who glorify or justify the actions of those carrying out armed aggression against Ukraine.

-Germany’s opposition leader has travelled to Kyiv to meet Ukrainian officials, after the country’s chancellor, Olaf Scholz, made clear he would not be visiting Ukraine any time soon.

-US president Joe Biden is visiting a factory in Troy, Alabama, where arms manufacturer Lockheed Martin makes anti-tank Javelin missiles. He lauded the “rapid pace” of military equipment and aid from the US to Ukraine in the two months since Russia initiated the war.

-The EU sanctions intent on breaking “the Russian war machine” are now imminent, the president of the European Council has said. A proposal to phase in a prohibition on Russian oil imports will be discussed by member state ambassadors in Brussels on Wednesday, with the most dependent, such as Slovakia and Hungary, seeking exemptions.

-Croatian President Says Will Veto Inviting Finland and Sweden at NATO Summit. Says if PM and MPs overrule him they're traitors to Croatia

-Iran is ramping up oil exports and benefiting from a rise in oil prices as its main buyer, China, pulls back on its purchases of Russian oil due to the war with Ukraine. Iran oil exports—which go almost exclusively to China apart from rare deliveries to Syria and Venezuela—rose to 870,000 barrels a day in the first three months of the year, up 30% from an average of 668,000 barrels a day in the full-year 2021, said commodities data provider Kpler. China cut back its purchases of Russian oil by 14% in March, according to data from Chinese customs administration.