Russia/Ukraine War Update - May 3rd, 2022

*** MILITARY SITUATION ***

Russian forces did not conduct any confirmed ground attacks in Ukraine on May 2. The April 30 Ukrainian artillery strike on the Russian command post in Izyum may be continuing to disrupt Russian efforts on the Izyum axis. Russian troops on the Donetsk-Luhansk frontline and Southern Axis continued to regroup, likely in preparation for renewed offensives or to resist or reverse Ukrainian counter-offensives.

-Units from the armed forces of Belarus have been identified in the Ukrainian border regions of Volyn and Polissya, Ukraine’s general staff has said in its morning update, adding: “the threat of missile strikes on military and civilian infrastructure from the territory of the republic of Belarus by the Russian enemy remains.”

-A Russian rocket strike hit the Black Sea port city of Odesa in south-western Ukraine, causing deaths and injuries. The strike hit a strategically important bridge across the Dniester estuary.

*** ECONOMIC & POLITICAL ***

-Today’s truckstop retail diesel prices hit a new record of $5.32/gallon. Since February 1st, national truckstop diesel prices have increased by $1.57/gallon. For an owner-operator whose truck gets 6.5 miles per gallon, this equates to a cost increase of $0.24 per mile.

-Britain has said it will provide £300m ($375m) more in military aid to Ukraine, including electronic warfare equipment and a counter-battery radar system, on top of around £200m pounds of assistance so far, Reuters reports.

-Over the last 24 hours, two dozen flights carrying US arms have landed near Ukraine, and another 11 are planned over the coming 24 hours, officials said. In addition, 23 transport flights carrying arms and battlefield supplies from five other countries also landed in key delivery locations. US marine corp and air force personnel were earlier seen loading M777 howitzers bound for Ukraine onto a C-17 Globemaster III at the March Air Reserve Base in Riverside County, California. More than 70 of 90 M-777 howitzers the US planned to send are now in Ukrainian hands, along with over 140,000 155 mm rounds that these cannons use, which is about half of the projectiles planned for delivery, a senior official with the US department of defense said.

US marines load an M777 towed 155 mm howitzer into the cargo hold of a US Air Force C-17 Globemaster III transport plane, to be delivered to Europe for Ukrainian forces.

 

-Russia has rerouted internet traffic in the occupied Ukrainian region of Kherson through Russian communications infrastructure, the internet service disruption monitor NetBlocks said on Monday.

-British prime minister Boris Johnson will hail Ukraine’s resistance against tyranny as an exemplar for the world as he delivers a virtual address to the country’s parliament on Tuesday. Recalling Britain’s resolve during the second world war, the UK prime minister will say that “we remember our time of greatest peril as our finest hour”. He will say the bravery demonstrated by those who have sought to defend their country from Russian invaders means the war will come to be known as Ukraine’s “finest hour”, too.

-In a Monday statement the Pentagon also revealed that at this point, 68 days into the war, more than 5,000 Javelin anti-tank missiles have made it to Ukrainian forces. And an estimated 80% of the Howitzers thus far pledged to Ukraine have now been delivered to the country.

-Contradicting prior reports and speculation that Russia's military had pledged to President Putin that it would liberate the Donbas region by Russia's 'Victory Day' celebrations on May 9, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on Monday asserted that this is not likely to happen, nor will Moscow set any artificial timeframes. "Our troops won’t artificially base their activities on a specific date, including Victory Day," he said after being asked about international reports on the question of timeframe. "We will solemnly celebrate May 9 the way we always do," Lavrov added. He described that protection of civilians would necessitate taking longer to complete the special operation, which has been focused in Ukraine's east. On the same day the Pentagon weighed in on its own assessment of Russia's progress, saying that in the Donbas, Russian gains have been "minimal at best". A Pentagon official further told Axios that Russian forces are suffering under "poor" command and control and ongoing logistical problems, which has contributed to low morale.

-The Wall Street Journal reports that the US, Ukraine, and its allies are paying companies with spy satellites to collect intelligence on Russian troop movements. Western counties have worked with several firms that maintain hundreds of satellites making passes over Ukraine each day. While the satellites have different abilities, some can scan the entire country daily with a nine-foot resolution. Other companies collect intelligence through clouds and at night.HawkEye 360’s fleet of satellites can actively follow Russian troop movements. John Serafini, the firm’s CEO, said it has been following Russian forces using GPS jamming equipment. Maxar Technologies is contracting with various media outlets, including The Wall Street Journal. The firm provides journalists with images of a broad range of Ukraine with a 12-inch resolution. Officials have recently discussed giving Kiev more detailed intelligence as the battle moves to Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region. The US claims it assisted the Ukrainian military in downing a Russian troop transport, killing hundreds. Senior national security officials told the outlet that the more affordable space-based technology is making it more difficult for Russia to hide its troop placements. Officials also noted that it is easier for the White House to declassify its intelligence because the data collected from private satellites is public information.

-More than a quarter of the units dedicated to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have likely since been rendered “combat ineffective”, the UK’s Ministry of Defence has said in its latest intelligence update on the conflict. Some of Russia’s most elite units, including the VDV Airborne Forces, have suffered the highest levels of attrition. It will probably take years for Russia to reconstitute these forces.

-Gordon G. Chang writing regarding the growing China threat....

All the conditions for history's next great war are in place. Jim Holmes, the Wiley Professor at the Naval War College, actually talks about this period as being 1937. 1937 was the year in which if you were in Europe or America, you could sense the trouble. If you were in Asia in 1937, you would be even more worried, because that year saw Japan's second invasion of China that decade. No matter where you lived, however, you could not be sure that the worst would happen, that great armies and navies around the world would clash. There was still hope that the situation could be managed. As we now know, the worst did happen. In fact, what happened was worse than what anyone thought at the time.

We are now, thanks to China, back to 1937.

China is building 345 missile silos in three locations: in Gansu, Xinjiang, and in Inner Mongolia. These silos are clearly built to accommodate the DF‑41. The DF‑41 has a range of about 9,300 miles, which means that it can reach any part of the United States. The DF‑41 carries 10 warheads. This means that China could, in about two years have a bigger nuclear arsenal than ours. In July, 2021 China tested a hypersonic glide warhead, which circled the world. This signals China intends to violate the Outer Space Treaty, to which China is a party. Americans don't pay attention to propaganda... After all, these are just words. At this particular time, these words... [suggest] to me that China is laying the justification for a strike on the United States. We keep ignoring what Beijing is saying. We kept ignoring what Osama bin Laden was saying.

China has bought the political establishment in the Solomon Islands, except for one brave man named David Suidani. Recently, somebody got the bright idea of publishing all of the specific payments that Beijing has made to Solomon Islands politicians.... We should be doing this with payments to American politicians, we should be doing this across the board.

The best response would be if we hit them with everything at once because China right now is weak. If we were going to pick the number one thing to do, I would think trade. China now has a debt crisis, so they are not going to invest their way out of this crisis, which means the only way they can save their economy is net exports. We should stop buying their stuff.

A lot of military analysts talk about how the first seconds of a war with China are going to be fought in outer space. They are going to blind our satellites, take them down, do all sorts of stuff. Those statements are wrong. The first day of war against the United States occurs about six months earlier, when they release pathogens in the United States. Then we are going to have that day in space. The war starts here, with a pathogen ‑‑ a virus, a microbe, a bug of some kind. That is where it begins.

-The Department of Defense announced it was sending "121 Phoenix Ghost Tactical Unmanned Aerial Systems" to Ukraine. The never-before-seen kamikaze drone is a brand-new weapon system designed for ambushing Russian tanks. As reported by Breaking Defense, the Phoenix Ghost tactical drone is similar to the Switchblade drone already fielded in Ukraine. Not much is known about the new drone. The DoD described it as a "one-way" drone that will "deliver a punch" and said it would operate similar to the Switchblade drone system.

The new drone is part of the latest U.S. arms package to Ukraine. Here's what's included:

        Over 1,400 Stinger anti-aircraft systems;
        Over 5,500 Javelin anti-armor systems;
        Over 14,000 other anti-armor systems;
        Over 700 Switchblade Tactical Unmanned Aerial Systems;
        90 155mm Howitzers and 183,000 155mm artillery rounds;
        72 Tactical Vehicles to tow 155mm Howitzers;
        16 Mi-17 helicopters;
        Hundreds of Armored High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicles;
        200 M113 Armored Personnel Carriers;
        Over 7,000 small arms;
        Over 50,000,000 rounds of ammunition;
        75,000 sets of body armor and helmets;
        121 Phoenix Ghost Tactical Unmanned Aerial Systems;
        Laser-guided rocket systems;
        Puma Unmanned Aerial Systems;
        Unmanned Coastal Defense Vessels;
        14 counter-artillery radars;
        Four counter-mortar radars;
        Two air surveillance radars;
        M18A1 Claymore anti-personnel munitions;
        C-4 explosives and demolition equipment for obstacle clearing;
        Tactical secure communications systems;
        Night vision devices, thermal imagery systems, optics, and laser rangefinders;
        Commercial satellite imagery services;
        Explosive ordnance disposal protective gear;
        Chemical, Biological, Radiological, Nuclear protective equipment;
        Medical supplies to include first aid kits.

So far, the Biden administration has committed more than $4 billion in security assistance to Ukraine and has just requested $33 billion more. The massive request includes billions of dollars for economic and humanitarian aid.

-Pentagon Press Secretary John Kirby confirmed U.S. troops are again training Ukrainians but at a new, undisclosed location in Germany. The Joint Multinational Training Group-Ukraine (JMTGU) previously operated at the Yavoriv Combat Training Center in western Ukraine with members of the Florida Army National Guard’s Task Force Gator, 53rd Infantry Brigade Combat Team. Part of the 7th Army Training Command, JMTGU trained Ukrainian troops on many of the shoulder-fired weapons like the FGM-148 Javelin, FIM-92 Stinger, and others that have seen widespread use against Russian forces.

-Lockdowns have resulted in food shortages across China as supply chains become strained and manufacturing remains shut in many cases. The story many westerners are not hearing much about, though, is the fact that Chinese exports have essentially been frozen. This is very important so I think it needs emphasis – Over 1 IN 5 container ships IN THE WORLD are now backed up in Chinese ports due to their covid lockdowns.

Why would China do this over a virus we all know is not dangerous to the vast majority of people?  I would suggest the possibility that China might already be engaging in an economic war that many Americans and Europeans don’t even realize is going on. This may be a beta test for a shut down of exports to the US and Europe, or it is an incremental shutdown that is meant to become permanent. The bottleneck on trade may also be a precursor to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

Taiwan is actually more dependent and intertwined with China’s economy than many people know. China is the biggest buyer of Taiwan’s exports and those exports account for 10% of Taiwan’s GDP. Taiwan has hundreds of thousands of workers and businessmen that travel regularly to China to work, another economic factor that is now strained by lockdowns. Furthermore, Taiwan has multiple corporations that operate their factories on mainland China, all of which could be closed due to covid lockdowns.

-Russian troops are reportedly destroying historical tombs in Ukraine’s Kherson region, according to Ukraine officials. Via Twitter, Ukraine’s ministry of foreign affairs reported that Russian troops were destroying 1,000-year-old Scythian tombs in Kherson by “arranging firing position at them”.

-The director of the United Nations world food programme in Germany has warned that millions of tonnes of grain is stuck in Ukraine due to sea ports being blocked by Russian military action. Martin Frick said about 4.5m tonnes of grain in containers at Ukrainian ports could not be shifted due to unsafe or occupied sea routes, some of which had been mined, as well as inaccessible ports.

-The European Union hopes to pass the sixth round of sanctions against Russia at the next meeting of the EU Foreign Affairs Council, the bloc’s chief diplomat said on Monday.