*** MILITARY SITUATION ***
Ukrainian TVD, Day 80-88. The past 9 days has seen one of the most fluid periods to date in the Russo-Ukrainian War. The most significant developments have been the surrender of Ukrainian forces in Mariupol & the Russian breakthrough around Popasna.
Kharkiv OD. The Ukrainian counteroffensive has likely stalled due to recent Russian spoiling attacks in the Ternova & Rubizhne area. Russian forces retain a shallow 10km strip of occupied territory on the border within artillery range of Kharkiv. Russia likely intends to maintain a presence west bank of the Siverskyi Donets rather than use the length of the river as natural obstacle Ukrainian forces must cross. With a bridgehead already over the river at Staryi Saltiv, Ukrainian forces can still threaten Vovchansk.
Severodonetsk-Donetsk OD. Despite continued heavy losses in the Severodonetsk-Donetsk OD, Russian forces have successfully achieved a localized breakthrough in the Popasna area as well as numerous incremental gains along the Izium & Lyman axes & between Horlivka & Donetsk. The Russian MoD allocated a small operational maneuver group (OMG) of its most capable forces to punch through the secondary Popasna defensive line and exploit this breach toward Soladar in the west and Lysychansik to the north, likely with the intent of forming a cauldron. Russian forces appear to be leveraging the advantage of Luhansk’s dense rail network to keep forward forces adequately supplied. The OMG in Popasna has made better use of combined arms, a doctrinal approach to breaching prepared defenses, and integrating new combat assets.
Zaporizhzhia OD. Russian & Ukrainian activity in the Zaporizhzhia OD has increased over the past week. Between Marinka & Vuhledar Russian units launched a series of assaults that captured a few small towns & villages in the Novomykhaillvka area. Russian MoD reports that it defeated a counterattack by 2x Ukrainian battalion’s between Hulyaipole & Malynivka on 16 May. Ukrainian sources report an increased presence of Russian troops & equipment in Polohy, likely for a renewed push towards Orikhiv.
Partisan activity remains active and disruptive in Russian occupied areas, particularly Melitopol & Enerhodar. Russian occupation authorities in Melitopol claim guerillas have attacked artillery & air defense systems throughout the region.
Odesa-Kherson OD. There has been little combat activity in the Kherson-Odesa OD over the past week. Ukrainian & Russian efforts have mostly focused on improving their tactical positioning. Russian authorities continue to solidify control over the population of Kherson Oblast.
Black Sea OTMO. The Russian blockade of Odesa continues. The Black Seas Fleet remains active in the western Black Sea to interdict shipping in and out of Odesa, as well as conduct cruise missile strikes against critical Ukrainian infrastructure throughout Ukraine.
VKS sorties are averaging 250 for a 24-hrs period. Close air support of units operating the Donbas has substantially increased, particularly in the Lyman area. Recent VKS losses include 2x fighter jets (unknown type), 2x helicopters, & 12x UAVs.
Anecdotal reporting and generalized statements by Ukrainian/Russian officials of combat losses along the Izium-Lyman-Severdonetsk-Popasna line of operation state a high rate of losses in both troops & equipment among Russian & Ukrainian forces.
Russia is attempting to place intense pressure on Africa and those parts of Asia that depend on Ukrainian Wheat exports in a likely attempt to force the restart of negotiations. Italy has introduced a 4-point plan to the UN for an end to hostilities.
Russia’s push against Severodonetsk will likely determine the success or failure of this current phase of the war. Russian failure to secure the borders of Luhansk & at least make a meaningful advance into Donetsk risks not achieving the Kremlin’s aims. As stated previously, the breakthrough at Popasna has been the result of a better application of doctrinal methodologies and the integration of new combat assets (like BMPT AFV) that has allowed Russian forces to maneuver more effectively and outflank Ukrainian defenses. Likewise, supporting this has been a missing element of Russian offensive capability, effective supply of sustained combat operations. The Popasna OMG has remained effective largely in part because it has been better supplied than previous Russian offensives. However, the stability of the Russian breakout from Popasna depends on the long-term coherence of this OMGs logistic sustainment. Otherwise it will be unable to make gains for much longer, let alone create a cauldron in Severodonetsk that forces Ukraine forces to withdraw.
ISW Assessment
Russian forces have likely abandoned efforts to complete a single large encirclement of Ukrainian forces in eastern Ukraine and are instead attempting to secure smaller encirclements—enabling them to make incremental measured gains. Russian forces are likely attempting to achieve several simultaneous encirclements of small pockets of Ukrainian forces in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts: the broader Severodonetsk area (including Rubizhne and Lysychansk), Bakhmut-Lysychansk, around Zolote (just northeast of Popasna), and around Ukrainian fortifications in Avdiivka. Russian forces have begun steadily advancing efforts in these different encirclements daily but have not achieved any major “breakthroughs” or made major progress towards their stated objectives of securing the Donetsk Oblast borders or seizing all of Donbas. Luhansk Oblast Administration Head Serhiy Haidai reported that Ukrainian forces only controlled approximately 10 percent of Luhansk Oblast as of May 15 (compared to 30 percent prior to the full-scale Russian invasion on February 24, 2022).[1] Russian forces have secured more terrain in the past week than efforts earlier in May. However, they have done so by reducing the scope of their objectives—largely abandoning operations around Izyum and concentrating on key frontline towns: Russian performance remains poor.
Russian forces will additionally likely face protracted urban combat if they successfully encircle Severodonetsk (as well as in other large towns like Bakhmut), which Russian forces have struggled with throughout the war. Russian forces are committing a significant number of their troops, artillery, and aircraft to defeat Ukrainian defenders in Luhansk Oblast and are likely pulling necessary resources from the Izyum axis, defensive positions around Kharkiv City, Donetsk City, and the Zaporizhia area. Luhansk Oblast Administration Head Serhiy Haidai has previously compared Ukrainian forces in Luhansk Oblast to the previous defenders of Mariupol, which aimed to wear out Russian forces and prevent further offensive operations.[2] The UK Defense Ministry also noted that a Russian victory over Severodonetsk will only worsen Russian logistical issues and extend Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs).[3] Russian forces are making greater advances in the past week than throughout the rest of May—but these advances remain slow, confined to smaller objectives than the Kremlin intended, and face continued Ukrainian defenses; they do not constitute a major breakthrough.
Senior Kremlin officials are increasingly openly admitting that the Russian offensive in Ukraine is moving slower than anticipated and are grasping for explanations to justify the slow pace. Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu claimed that Russian operations in Ukraine are progressing slowly because Russian forces want to afford civilians the opportunity to evacuate, though Russian forces have targeted Ukrainian civilians throughout the war and repeatedly denied Ukrainian attempts to negotiate humanitarian evacuation corridors.[4] Shoigu’s statement is notably his first admission that Russian forces are behind schedule and is the first official statement on the pace of the war since Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko stated that the operation was “dragging” on May 4.[5] Russian milbloggers are criticizing Shoigu’s claimed consideration for civilians and claimed that Soviet troops would not have cared if “Nazi” civilians evacuated, part of the growing Russian nationalist reaction that the Kremlin is not doing enough to win the war in Ukraine.[6] Director of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service Sergey Naryshkin stated that the ultimate goal of the Russian offensive is to ensure “Nazism” is “100% eradicated, or it will rear its head in a few years, and in an even uglier form.”[7] Naryshkin and Shoigu’s statements indicate that Russian officials are likely setting conditions for a protracted war in Ukraine in order to justify slower and more measured advances than initially anticipated.
Forcefully mobilized servicemen from the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics continued to protest the Russian and proxy military command. Servicemen of the 3rd Infantry Battalion of the 105th Infantry Regiment from the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) recorded a video appeal to DNR Head Denis Pushilin wherein they claimed they were mobilized on February 23 and that they have been forced to actively participate in hostilities despite their lack of military experience. The battalion stated that they served on the frontlines in Mariupol and have been redeployed to the territory of the Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) with only 60% of their original personnel and are now dealing with severe morale issues and physical exhaustion. The battalion notably claimed that the servicemen did not go through routine medical inspection prior to service and that many are suffering from chronic illnesses that should have rendered them ineligible for service. The video appeal is consistent with numerous reports from Ukrainian and Western sources that proxy forces are largely forcibly mobilized, poorly trained, and suffering from declining morale, but is notable due to the willingness of the DNR servicemen to publicly express their discontent.[8]
-Russian forces have taken control of three Donetsk region towns including Svitlodarsk, according to the regional governor, Pavlo Kyrylenko. Earlier today, it was reported that Russian forces had entered Svitlodarsk and hung up a Russian flag over the city administration building.
-The governor of Luhansk has delivered a warning that it is too late for thousands of civilians to be evacuated from the besieged city of Sievierodonetsk, as it faced a sustained Russian effort to take the city and the parts of the province still held by Ukraine. Surrounded on three sides by Russian forces who have been attempting to complete their encirclement of the pocket around the city, Sievierodonetsk and the towns and villages to its west have been under intense bombardment in recent days. Fifteen thousand residents were still believed to be in the city hiding in shelters from what Ukraine’s foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, described as “the largest [offensive] on European soil since the second world war”. Russian forces have been attempting to cut Ukrainian supply lines to Sievierodonestsk by trying to control key roads to the west.
-The governor of Ukraine’s eastern Luhansk region said the situation there “is only getting worse” as Russian troops advance.“The situation is very difficult and unfortunately it is only getting worse. It is getting worse with every day and even with every hour,” said governor Sergiy Gaidai. “They are simply eliminating Severodonetsk from the earth.”