*** MILITARY SITUATION ***
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 7th
Russian forces continued to redeploy forces to the Izyum-Slovyansk axis and eastern Ukraine in the past 24 hours and did not secure any major advances. Russian forces completed their withdrawal from Sumy Oblast, and Russian forces previously withdrawn from northeastern Ukraine continued to redeploy to Belgorod, Russia, for further deployment to Izyum or Donbas. The Ukrainian military reported that Russia plans to deploy elements from the Kyiv axis to Izyum, but these units will not likely regain combat effectiveness for some time.
Russian forces may be preparing for a larger offensive in Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts in the coming days, but are unlikely to generate the combat power necessary to break through Ukrainian defenses in continuing frontal assaults. Ukrainian officials and pro-Russian Telegram channels both reported additional Russian equipment arriving in Donbas from an unspecified location in preparation for a renewed offensive. Russian forces continued assaults in Mariupol, and we cannot confirm concrete control of terrain changes in the city. Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Izyum-Slovyansk axis but did not make any major territorial gains.
-Russian forces with heavy air and artillery support continued assaults on Ukrainian positions in Mariupol in the past 24 hours.
-Russian and proxy forces in eastern Ukraine are likely attempting to consolidate forces and material for an offensive in the coming days.
-Russian forces continued offensive operations from Izyum towards Slovyansk but did not make any major territorial gains.
-Ukrainian forces conducted successful counterattacks towards Kherson from both the north and west.
-Russian forces completely vacated Sumy Oblast.
-Russian General Officers are reportedly instruction commanders to severely restrict internet access among Russian personnel in an attempt to combat low morale.
-The US and NATO should take a strong stance on any Russian threat to use its military forces in Transnistria, the illegally Russian-occupied strip of Moldova bordering Ukraine.
-Western officials said Russia’s retreat from around Kyiv and the north east of the country is now “largely complete” and that it will take “at least a week” before reconstituted units could move to Donbas.
-Russia’s defence ministry says it used missiles to destroy four fuel storage facilities in the Ukrainian cities of Mykolayiv, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia and Chuchiv. The ministry said the facilities were used by Ukraine to supply its troops near the cities of Mykolaiv and Kharkiv and in the Donbas region in the southeast of the country.
-Progressing offensive operations in eastern Ukraine is the main focus of Russian military forces. Russian artillery and air strikes continue along the Donbas line of control. Russian strikes against infrastructure targets within the Ukrainian interior are likely intended to degrade the ability of the Ukrainian military to resupply and increase pressure on the Ukrainian government. Despite refocussing forces and logistics capabilities to support operations in the Donbas, Russian forces are likely to continue facing morale issues and shortages of supplies and personnel.
*** ECONOMIC & POLITICAL ***
- Russian President Vladimir Putin is endeavouring to build a pro-Russian empire stretching from "Vladivostok to Lisbon", a former Russian president has warned. Ex-president and deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev said Putin launched his brutal invasion of the former Soviet republic to bring peace to Ukraine, in a Telegram post. The shocking allegations were made as Western leaders shared fears Moscow is planning a new military offensive in southern and eastern parts of Ukraine. Medvedev said: "To change the bloody and full of false myths consciousness of a part of today’s Ukrainians is the most important goal. "The goal is for the sake of the peace of future generations of Ukrainians themselves and the opportunity to finally build an open Eurasia – from Lisbon to Vladivostok."
-As Ukrainian forces put up a stronger defense than expected against an ongoing Russian onslaught, Pentagon officials have urged Ukrainians to hold the line at least until the U.S. Defense Department’s fiscal year 2023 budget is approved. “People of Ukraine, the fate of the Pentagon’s FY23 budget is in your hands, and your hands alone,” Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin wrote in an open letter to the country. “I call on every able-bodied Ukrainian citizen to take up arms and fight for a seven to ten percent increase over FY22 DoD spending levels.”
-The US announced on Tuesday that it will send additional anti-tank missile systems to Ukraine. Washington will supply Kiev with an additional $100 million worth of anti-armor systems, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said. “I have authorized … the immediate drawdown of security assistance valued at up to $100 million to meet Ukraine’s urgent need for additional anti-armor systems,” Blinken said in a statement.
-Twitter “permanently suspended” the retired US Marine Corps officer Scott Ritter on Wednesday, accusing him of engaging in prohibited behavior by questioning the claims of Ukrainian authorities that Russian soldiers had massacred civilians in Bucha near Kiev. Ritter is best known as the former UN weapons inspector who doubted US claims about Iraqi weapons of mass destruction, invoked by Washington as a pretext for the 2003 invasion.
-A security guard at the British embassy in Berlin suspected of spying for Russia has been extradited to appear in court charged with nine offences under the Official Secrets Act. David Ballantyne Smith, 57, is due to appear at Westminster Magistrates' Court on Thursday.
-Ukraine’s foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, has called on Nato allies to supply more weapons to bolster Ukraine’s war effort, including war planes, heavy air defence systems, missiles and armoured vehicles. Speaking at Nato headquarters, where Nato foreign ministers are meeting later today, Kuleba said there are three items on his agenda when he talks to the allies and holds bilateral meetings: “Weapons, weapons and weapons”.
-Ukraine’s foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba has tweeted out a response to developments in the US. He said: "Grateful to the US Senate for passing the Ukraine Democracy Defense Lend-Lease Act. Important first step towards a lend-lease program to expedite the delivery of military equipment to Ukraine. Looking forward to its swift passage in the House and signing by the US President."
-Austria is the latest European country to announce diplomatic sanctions against Russia. This morning the foreign ministry there has announced that it is expelling three Russian diplomat from the embassy in Vienna, and one from the consulate in Salzburg.
-If Western countries continue to expel Russian diplomats, Moscow won’t rule out the possibility of severing diplomatic ties with the states concerned, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov warned on Wednesday. He explained that the recent wave of expulsions threatens continued diplomatic relations. “There is such a potential risk, since every day we are faced with such hostile actions. The expulsion of diplomats is a decision that closes the window of diplomatic relations,” he told the French TV channel LCI, when asked if Moscow would consider breaking off ties after dozens of its envoys were declared persona non grata in NATO capitals. Italy, Spain, and Denmark expelled a total of 70 Russian representatives on Tuesday, following Monday’s decision by Germany and France to exile 35 and 40, respectively.
-Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban said on Wednesday he is opposed to any EU sanctions on Russian energy, adding his country will accept Moscow’s directive that gas supplies be paid-for in rubles. Hungary will not yield to pressure and will not support restrictions of oil and gas supplies from Russia because this is a ‘red line’ for Hungary, Orban explained, as cited by Reuters.
-Tension between Ukraine and Hungary has not eased this morning, with Reuters carrying quotes from two simultaneous briefings. Ukraine’s foreign ministry has this morning said that it considers Hungary’s willingness to pay for Russian gas in roubles an “unfriendly act”. Ukraine also said that Hungary’s stance over the allegations of Russian atrocities strengthens Russia’s sense of impunity and encourages Russia “to commit new atrocities against Ukrainians.”
- Spanish supermarkets can legally ration consumer purchases of certain products under a new provision published Wednesday in the state's official bulletin. The text, which provides legal cover, says the restrictions can be applied "exceptionally and when there are extraordinary circumstances or force majeure that justify it". The move came as empty shelves appeared in many supermarkets due to the combined effect of a truck drivers' strike and the Ukraine war.
-The US State Department has greenlit a potential deal that would see the US providing Taiwan with equipment and relevant training to support its Patriot air defense systems, the Pentagon’s Defense Security Cooperation Agency told the media on Wednesday. According to the Pentagon, the total value of the deal might amount to up to $95 million. “This proposed sale serves US national, economic, and security interests by supporting the recipient’s continuing efforts to modernize its armed forces and to maintain a credible defensive capability,” the Pentagon said in a notification to the US Congress.
-Former French intelligence chief Pierre Brochand warns that unless Europe and France radically change their policies on mass immigration, civil war could break out, asserting, “all multicultural societies are doomed.” Brochand, who served as director of the French DGSE from 2002 to 2008, made the comments during an interview with French newspaper Le Figaro. “All ‘multicultural’ societies are doomed to more or less deep rifts,” warned Brochand, adding, “In such a situation, it happens that minorities are violent winners, and majorities placid losers.” The negative impact of mass immigration on France can no longer be dismissed because it is “increasingly difficult to prevent the French from seeing what they see,” and also because “a breakthrough personality has suddenly appeared in the formulaic world of politics that has encouraged them to open their eyes,” said Brochand.
-The Russian ruble strengthened to 76 rubles to the US dollar and 82 against the euro on Thursday, reaching its strongest levels against major currencies since February 23. The ruble plunged to historic lows after Russia launched the special military operation in Ukraine, and the US and its allies imposed unprecedented sanctions targeting the country’s financial system. On March 7, the Russian currency fell to as low as 150 rubles to the dollar.
-While much of the “mainstream” world has spent the last week obsessing over and debating the celebrity spectacle surrounding American actor Will Smith slapping American comedian Chris Rock, the international elitists were meeting in Dubai for the 2022 World Government Summit. From March 28th to the 30th, corporate media journalists, heads of state, and CEOs of some of the most profitable companies in the world met for discussions on shaping the direction of the next decade and beyond. Anyone with a functioning brain should ignore the tabloids and instead pay attention to this little known gathering of globalist Technocrats. Let’s take a look at the speakers and the panels, starting with Klaus Schwab, founder of the World Economic Forum. Schwab gave a talk entitled, Our World Today… Why Government Must Act Now?. “Thank you, to his excellency for enabling this initiative to define a longer-term narrative to make the world more resilient more inclusive and more sustainable,” Schwab stated during his address. The use of the term narrative is important because in January 2021, Klaus and the World Economic Forum announced the next phase of The Great Reset, The Great Narrative. During Schwab’s short talk he also mentioned his pet project “the 4th Industrial Revolution“, which is essentially the digital panopticon of the future, where digital surveillance is omnipresent and humanity uses digital technology to alter our lives. Often associated with terms like the Internet of Things, the Internet of Bodies, the Internet of Humans, and the Internet of Senses, this world will be powered by 5G and 6G technology. Of course, for Schwab and other globalists, the 4IR also lends itself towards more central planning and top-down control. The goal is a track and trace society where all transactions are logged, every person has a digital ID that can be tracked, and social malcontents are locked out of society via social credit scores.
-The EU is expected to deliver another shock to its agricultural sector by capping Russian imports of potash, a crucial ingredient for growing food, according to Bloomberg, citing a Dow Jones report. The European Commission is expected to imminently unveil broad new sanctions on Russia. Much of the fertilizer is purchased from Belarus; the landlocked country in Eastern Europe could also be slapped with new sanctions for its involvement in Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Potash is a key ingredient for agricultural fertilizers. Europe produces only a negligible amount of the fertilizer, and to potentially cap imports from Russia and or Belarus (top producers) seems idiotic for Europe as the spring planting season is only beginning.
Even if Europe were to rework its supply chains to import potash elsewhere, only a few other countries would export it. The impact of capping imports will send prices even higher and create fertilizer shortages for crops. This can dramatically affect crop harvests at the end of the growing season. A handful of North American fertilizer stocks jumped on the report, including CF Industries +3% and Intrepid Potash 2%. About 90% of potash is used as fertilizer in Europe; the rest is used to produce table salt, help slow the aging of wine, preserve canned food, and give chocolate its aroma.
-State-owned Ukrainian Railways said on Wednesday there were a number of casualties after three rockets hit a rail station in eastern Ukraine, damaging buildings, tracks and rail stock.
-Russia’s military has now shifted its focus to the east of the Ukraine, with authorities in Luhansk and Donetsk warning that civilians should leave as quickly as possible. There were reports of burning buildings in Luhansk following Russian shelling, with casualties unknown; while five were killed in Donetsk, according to the governor; and Ukrainian railways reported rocket fire on a railway station in the east of the country, which resulted in casualties, though gave no further detail on the location or number of victims.
-Russian largest lender Sberbank has responded to the latest wave of US sanctions, stating that it would not significantly impact the bank’s operations.
-The Russian embassy has reacted with fury to the Greek government’s decision to expel twelve of its diplomats after declaring them “personae non-gratae.”
-The 193-member UN General Assembly will vote on Thursday whether to suspend Russia from the Geneva-based UN Human Rights Council.
-The Netherlands has sent four F-35 warplanes to Nato ally Bulgaria to help with its air-policing tasks amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the defence ministry has said.
-Germany can only supply arms to Ukraine that the country’s army will know how to use, German chancellor Olaf Scholz has said.
-The European Union has given €35bn (£29.1bn) to Vladimir Putin for energy supplies since the start of his war and €1bn to fund Ukraine’s defence, the union’s top diplomat said.
-US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has said Russia should be expelled from the Group of 20 major economies forum, and the United States will boycott “a number of G20 meetings” if Russian officials show up.
-The US has disrupted a global “botnet” controlled by Russia’s military intelligence agency, Attorney General Merrick Garland announced on Wednesday. A botnet is a network of hijacked computers used to carry out cyberattacks. “The Russian government has recently used similar infrastructure to attack Ukrainian targets,” Garland told reporters at the justice department.
-Russia edged closer to a potential default on its international debt on Wednesday as it set aside roubles to pay holders of international bonds that need to be repaid in dollars and said it would continue to do so as long as its foreign exchange reserves are blocked by sanctions.
-The identities of Putin’s daughters have never been confirmed by him or the Kremlin and no photographs of them as adults have ever been officially released. Even the number of children Putin has fathered is subject to intense speculation. Officially, Putin has two children, Maria and Katerina, from his marriage to Lyudmila Putina, a former Aeroflot steward whom he divorced in 2013, becoming the first Russian leader to divorce since Peter the Great in 1698. Putin, who has very rarely spoken publicly about his children, responded to questions at his annual press conference in 2015, saying his daughters had not fled the country, as had been speculated. “They live in Russia. They have never been educated anywhere except Russia. I am proud of them; they continue to study and are working,” he said. “My daughters speak three European languages fluently. I never discuss my family with anyone. “They have never been ‘star’ children, they have never got pleasure from the spotlight being directed on them. They just live their own lives.” Putin said his daughters were “taking the first steps in their careers”, and were “not involved in business or politics”. However, both daughters have since launched business ventures.
-As the war in Ukraine enters a new phase, Nato countries have been gradually stepping up their supply of weapons to Kyiv. In doing so, western nations are quietly crossing the defensive-only threshold set by leaders at the start of the crisis. But the question remains whether the gradual escalation in arms deliveries can avoid a Russian retaliation and turn the tide on the battlefield, where Moscow is seeking to wage a more conventional military-on-military war in the eastern Donbas. “The issue will be how much the west shifts to offensive weaponry,” said Phil Osborn, a former UK chief of defence intelligence, “and the absolute criticality of ensuring that the supply of critical military kit is maintained and increased.” In the past 24 hours it has emerged that the Czech Republic has sent a dozen Soviet designed T-72 tanks, plus howitzer artillery pieces and BMP-1 armoured vehicles, a significant shift in the direction of supplying “offensive weapons” that western politicians had insisted they were not prepared to do. That by itself is not enough to make more than a dent in the 94 tanks that Ukraine is estimated by researchers at Oryx to have lost in the fighting so far – but there is persistent speculation Poland could spare 100 more, now it has reached a separate agreement on Tuesday to buy 250 US Abrams tanks for $4.75bn.
-A small group of Ukrainian soldiers who were already in the United States before Russia’s invasion of their country are being trained to use the deadly Switchblade drones Washington is supplying to Kyiv, a Pentagon official said Wednesday.
-Shells and rockets were landing at regular intervals in the eastern Ukrainian city of Severodonetsk today, reports AFP. According to AFP journalists who observed the bombardment, one building caught on fire during the bombing. Civilians who were outside quickly ran for cover as the shelling continued.
-US treasury secretary Janet Yellen said on Wednesday that sanctions imposing a full ban on Russian oil exports would likely result in “skyrocketing” global prices that would hurt the United States and its democratic allies. Yellen told the US House financial services committee she hopes oil companies in the United States and elsewhere can ramp up production in the next six moths, enticed by higher prices, which may allow for tougher restrictions on Russian oil.
-In March, the wait times for semiconductor deliveries increased again, an ominous sign that shortages persist and global supply chains remain congested. Lead times -- the lag between when a semiconductor chip is ordered and delivered -- increased by two days to 26.6 weeks last month, according to Bloomberg, citing new data from Susquehanna Financial Group. Susquehanna blamed increasing wait times on lockdowns in China and an earthquake in Japan that reduced the ability of major semiconductor manufacturers to increase output. In January, the group reported delays were diminishing, one of the first signs of improvements since 2019. However, that has since reversed as lead times rose in February.
-More than £250,000 ($327,000) of diesel was stolen from a Royal Navy warship, The Sun reported on Wednesday, describing the incident as one of the UK’s biggest fuel thefts. The heist was believed to have been underway for weeks at a high security naval base, HMNB Devonport, in the port city of Plymouth in southwestern England. The “siphoned” diesel was reportedly intended for HMS Bulwark, which is one of two amphibious assault ships in the Royal Navy. “They must have needed one hell of a jerrycan. The fuel that was taken was supposed to power the ship as it undergoes a refit,” a source told The Sun.
-Australia has kick started a program to modernize its air and sea power with new missiles, with a $2.6 billion investment. The push for rearmament comes amid worries over the situation in Ukraine and fears of growing Chinese influence in the South Pacific. “When you see what’s happening in the Ukraine, when you see what potential there is for conflict in the Indo-Pacific, this is very real for us now and we need to be realistic [to] deter any act of aggression and to help keep peace in our own region,” Defense Minister Peter Dutton told reporters on Tuesday. Part of it will be spent to arm Australia’s fleet of FA-18F Super Hornet fighter jets with JASSM-ER missiles. Manufactured in the US by weapons industry giant Lockheed Martin, the extended-range missiles will allow the warplanes to engage enemy targets at a range of 900 kilometers (560 miles). Australia had already intended to upgrade its air power with improved air-to-surface missiles, but a revised timetable now sets 2024 as the target year. This is three years ahead of the previous schedule.
-The fitting in Ukraine have made the window for a possible Chinese attack on Taiwan ‘highly unpredictable,’ the commander of the US Navy’s Pacific Fleet, Admiral Samuel Paparo, has warned. During a roundtable with journalists from Indo-Pacific countries in Washington on Monday, Paparo was asked if he thought that the conflict in Ukraine and the draconian international sanctions slapped on Russia over it somehow affected Beijing’s plans to bring Taiwan back under its control. “China is undoubtedly watching what’s happened in Ukraine, taking notes, and learning from it … And they’ll improve their capabilities based on what they learn at this time,” he replied. But because of all this, “the window of a potential unification by force [between mainland China and Taiwan] is highly, highly unpredictable,” Paparo pointed out.
-US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said on Tuesday that India’s continued purchase of Russian weapons systems is “not in their best interest,” and that there will be a “requirement” that leaders in New Delhi swap some of these systems for US and allied armaments. India is the world’s largest military importer, and counts on Russia for nearly half of its external supply of weaponry. Austin was responding to a question from Representative Joe Wilson (R-South Carolina), who described India as a “treasured ally” of the US and “the world’s largest democracy.” What, Wilson asked Austin, could the US do to convince “Indian leaders to reject Putin and align with its natural allies of democracy?” Austin responded that the US has “the finest weapons systems in the world,” and would offer them to New Delhi.
-The UK’s Stirling University has reportedly removed works of iconic British novelist Jane Austin in a bid to “contribute to increased diversity” of the English module. The college will replace the author of classic bestselling romance novel ‘Pride and Prejudice’ with African-American Nobel laureate Toni Morrison, according to a Telegraph report on Wednesday, citing university documents. The papers state that replacing Austen with Morrison would contribute to “decolonization of the curriculum.”
-China is on the verge of making a breakthrough in its nuclear arms capabilities that would amount to a major shift in global security balance, Admiral Charles Richard, the head of the US Strategic Command, has written in testimony prepared for a hearing on Capitol Hill, Bloomberg reported on Monday. The official is scheduled to meet the House Defense Appropriations subcommittee at a closed-door hearing on Tuesday. China’s “breathtaking expansion” of its strategic nuclear arsenal means a rapidly escalating risk to Washington, Richard believes. The admiral particularly refers to an intercontinental ballistic missile-launched hypersonic glider test Beijing conducted in July 2021. The operation saw the hypersonic vehicle flying some 40,000 kilometers for more than 100 minutes, according to the testimony. It was “the greatest distance and longest flight time of any land attack weapon system of any nation to date,” he supposedly said.
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