Russia/Ukraine War Update - April 22nd, 2022

*** MILITARY SITUATION ***

The Kremlin declared victory in the battle of Mariupol. Russian forces will attempt to starve out remaining Ukrainian defenders in the Azovstal Steel Plant rather than clear it through likely costly assaults. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu declared victory in the battle of Mariupol on April 21 despite the continued presence of Ukrainian forces in Mariupol’s Azovstal Steel Plant. In a staged, televised meeting, Putin ordered Shoigu to halt assaults on the plant to limit Russian casualties, claiming Russian forces have already captured the entirety of the city. The Kremlin will spin the (still incomplete) capture of Mariupol into a major victory in Ukraine to compensate for stalled or failed Russian offensives elsewhere.

The Kremlin’s reduction of the pace of operations in Mariupol is unlikely to enable the deployment of significant combat power to support other offensive operations in the coming days and weeks. Statements from US officials that Russia has not yet removed a dozen battalion tactical groups (BTGs) from Mariupol despite Putin’s claimed victory do not capture either the status of these Russian forces or other constraints on their use.[1] ISW has consistently assessed that Russian BTGs have taken high casualties in the battle of Mariupol, are degraded, and are unlikely to possess their full complement of personnel (800-900 at full strength). As with Russian operations elsewhere in Ukraine, reporting on numbers of BTGs without additional context and analysis of the combat power of these units is not a useful evaluation of Russian forces. While it is unlikely that all 12 reported BTGs were involved in the final fighting around the Azovstal plant, it will still take some time for those units that were engaged in final assaults to disengage for redeployment elsewhere. Some portion of these Russian forces will be necessary for several other missions—including maintaining the siege of the Azovstal plant, securing the rest of Mariupol against any remaining pockets of Ukrainian forces and likely partisan actions, and possibly redeploying to support Russian forces maintaining control of southern Ukraine. Russian forces will certainly be able to redeploy some units from Mariupol to offensive operations elsewhere—but Ukrainian forces have succeeded in tying down and degrading a substantial Russian force, and the Kremlin's declaration of victory has not inherently freed up 12 BTGs worth of combat power for other operations.

-57 days into the war, and 1700 cruise and ballistic missiles later Russia has for the first time ever targeted a Dnieper bridge. There are 25 Dnieper crossing points in Ukraine. Of these the lowest 3 are in Russian hands so that leaves 22 in Ukrainian hands. The most strategically important at this moment are the crossings in the south, the 5 in Dnipro, and especially the 3 in Zaporozhye. If the Ukrainian army is decisively defeated in Donbass it can retreat in the NW direction toward Poltava or it can fall back behind the Dnieper using the Dnipro and/or Zaporozhye bridges. In the meantime these same communication lines — from the NW, through Dnipro, and through Zaporozhye — serve as the supply routes for the Ukrainian forces in Donbass.

Eliminating all 22 crossing points might be a tall order, especially since 5 of them run over dams which would be difficult to cut without risking major flooding and numerous civilian casualties. However, the number of railway crossings is just 9 and just 2 of these run over dams. By collapsing the 7 railway bridges and cutting the remaining 2 lines by repeated retargeting of marshaling grounds (rather than dams) Russia could have Ukraine split in half for railway purposes.

But Russia has not opted for this. It has been, however, targeting rail infrastructure directly behind Donbass. This perhaps forces the Ukrainians to make the last part of a supply trip with trucks but still allows them to get quite close with trains. Today, for the first time a Dnieper bridge has been targeted. The railway bridge in Zaporozhye. The lower-most Dnieper railway crossing in Ukrainian hands. There isn’t another one for 80 kilometers upstream in Dnipro.

*** ECONOMIC & POLITICAL ***

-In an interview on Wednesday, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said some NATO member states want the war in Ukraine to last longer as a way to hurt Russia. "There are countries within NATO who want the war to continue," Cavusoglu told CNN Turk. "They want Russia to become weaker." According to Iran’s Mehr News Agency, Cavusoglu did not think the war would last long after Russia and Ukraine held peace talks in Istanbul last month. But following a NATO foreign ministers meeting, he was given the impression that some alliance members don’t want the war to end.

-Ukraine is lobbying with its Western allies for the redirection of Russian gas flows from the Nord Stream 1 pipeline to the pipeline that runs through its territory, Reuters has reported, citing energy officials. According to the report, Ukrainian lobbyists have argued that the more gas Russia transports via its pipeline, the more transit fees the government in Kiyv will collect, helping it fund the war. At the same time, the shift would, according to them, prevent Russia from damaging Ukrainian pipeline infrastructure.

-Ukraine needs $7bn each month to keep its economy afloat amid the “economic losses” inflicted by Russia, President Zelenskiy has said. Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskiy has proposed a war tax on Russia with funds used to help Ukraine rebuild in his latest address to the World Bank ministerial roundtable.

-Western officials said the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, could still win in Ukraine despite failing in his pre-war objectives, Reuters reports. Putin is “still in a position to win”, one official said, adding that success for Russia might be the consolidation of Russian control over the Donbas and the creation of a land bridge with Crimea. In what the official termed a worst-case scenario, Russian forces could launch a renewed attack on Kyiv.

-UK prime minister Boris Johnson has revealed that dozens of Ukrainian soldiers are training in the UK, learning how to use 120 British armoured vehicles before returning with them to fight in the war against Russia.

-Despite acknowledging that the US has almost no visibility into what happens to American weapons supplied to Ukraine (they might as well disappear into a black hole), President Joe Biden is planning to announce even more security assistance to Ukraine during remarks from the White House on Thursday.. During Thursday's speech from the Roosevelt Room, Biden has confirmed many of the details of the latest aid package for Ukraine, along with several previously unannounced measures. The money will include $500 million in additional economic aid to Ukraine, bringing the total economic aid to Ukraine to $1 billion since the start of the war. What's more, the US has already provided $2.6 billion in military aid. This latest package will drain the money approved by Congress, and Biden said he will likely need to return to the Hill next week to ask for more money.

    BIDEN SAYS ANNOUNCES ANOTHER $800 MILLION FOR UKRAINE
    BIDEN SAYS PACKAGE INCLUDES HEAVY ARTILLERY, DRONES BIDEN SAYS AID
    PACKAGE INCLUDES DOZENS OF HOWITZERS, AMMUNITION, DRONES, HEAVY ARTILLERY
    BIDEN SAYS IN ORDER TO SUSTAIN UKRAINE FOR DURATION OF FIGHTS, WILL ASK CONGRESS FOR MORE MONEY NEXT WEEK
    UNITED STATES WILL BAN RUSSIAN-AFFILIATED SHIPS FROM U.S. PORTS

Following his statement, Biden took a couple of questions, telling one reporter that there's no evidence that Putin actually controls the Ukrainian city of Mariupol (media reports have claimed Ukrainian fighters are holed up in a steel mill preparing to make their last stand in defiance of an order to surrender from the Russians) and that he hadn't yet made a decision on Title 42, the measure temporarily barring illegal migration into the US because of the pandemic. Asked how long the US can continue its support for Ukraine, Biden replied that they could be in place for a long time.

-Part of the latest weapons package the US will be sending over 120 “Phoenix Ghost” kamikaze drones. Two months ago “Phoenix Ghost” drones did not exist. They have been designed by the US Air Force and manufacturer “AEVEX” specifically for Ukrainian needs. The US is also delivering 72 155mm artillery pieces together with towing vehicles and 144,000 artillery rounds. This will make a total of 90 artillery guns that the US has gifted Ukraine. Artillery has proven the premier killer in this war especially when coupled with small camera drones for guidance. Ukraine’s g started the war with around 600 self-propelled artillery pieces, 500 towed guns, and 350 rocket artillery trucks. 90 isn’t such a large number compared to that but if the deliveries are ramped up the US could soon replace all of Ukraine’s artillery losses so far.

-The White House said earlier on Thursday that more than 121 Phoenix Ghost Tactical Unmanned Aerial Systems would be provided to Ukraine as part of the new arms package. The Pentagon said the Ghost drones are well suited for the coming fight in Ukraine’s Donbas region, which officials have described as flat terrain reminiscent of the US state of Kansas. The drones have been developed for attacking targets and are destroyed after a single use.

-A senior U.S. defense official said training of Ukrainian personnel on American 155mm howitzers has begun in a European country outside Ukraine.

-Spain has sent a new batch of 200 tonnes of military equipment to Ukraine, including heavy transport vehicles and ammunition, the country’s prime minister, Pedro Sanchez, said during a visit to Kyiv. His Danish counterpart, Mette Frederiksen, said her country would increase its contribution of weapons to Ukraine by 600m Danish crowns (£67m).

-Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, ordered his forces not to storm the last remaining Ukrainian stronghold in the besieged city of Mariupol, after his defence minister admitted that the Russian army was still fighting thousands of Ukrainian troops there.

-The parliaments of both Estonia and Latvia have recognised Russia’s actions in Ukraine as “genocide”. In a statement, the Estonian parliament said Russian troops in temporarily occupied territories had committed “acts of genocide” against the civilian population including “murders, enforced disappearances, deportations, imprisonment, torture, rape and desecration of corpses”.

-Weeks ago Russian forces had already captured and besieged much of the southeast Ukrainian port city of Mariupol, which began a process of the majority of civilians emptying out - though there could still be tens of thousands remaining. Within the past days an estimated couple thousand Azov fighters have been surrounded and holed up at the large, cavernous Azovstal steel plant, reportedly including some civilians, resulting in a standoff situation where those inside are fast running out of supplies. Previously it was thought that Russian troops were preparing to storm the sprawling complex, but instead on Thursday President Vladimir Putin indicated to his Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu that this course of action must be scrapped and instead the plant should be completely sealed off. Putin further declared Mariupol, which prior to the invasion had a population of about 450,000, is now "liberated" - and congratulated the defense chief on the military "success" - at a moment Russia has launched a broader major offensive to take the whole of Donbas. Those trapped in the plant will be offered a chance to surrender, and they can keep their lives and receive a "dignified treatment," Putin said.

-Russia has announced a move to expel 36 European diplomats, declaring 21 diplomats from Belgium and 15 from the Netherlands "persona non grata", in a Tuesday announcement where they've been told they have two weeks to leave Russian soil. At least four Austrian diplomats are being expelled as well, as part of retaliatory measures after multiple waves of expulsions of Russian officials from Europe. "European countries have kicked out more than 300 Russian embassy staff since Moscow sent its troops into Ukraine on Feb. 24," Reuters has tallied. Other media estimates have said it's actually around 400 Russian officials expelled in total as of mid-week.

-Outbound shipments of Russian coking coal to China doubled in March to 1.4 million tons, compared with 550,000 tons for the same month last year, according to Bloomberg, citing Chinese customs data. China has resisted Western sanctions on Russian energy products as it purchases heavily discounted coal used for steel-making. Russian coal trades well below market prices than what other top suppliers, like Indonesia and Mongolia, are offering.

-Britain has banned imports of caviar and other high-end products from Russia in the latest round of sanctions, the UK’s department for international trade said. The import ban will be extended to cover silver and wood products, while tariffs on imports of diamonds and rubber from Russia and Belarus are being increased by 35% points.