Russia/Ukraine War Update - April 29th, 2022

 *** MILITARY SITUATION ***

Russian offensive operations in eastern Ukraine made minor advances on April 28. Russian forces attacking southwest from Izyum likely seek to bypass Ukrainian defenses on the direct road to Slovyansk. Russian forces continued shelling and minor attacks along the line of contact in eastern Ukraine but did not secure any gains in the past 24 hours. Additional Russian reinforcements continue to deploy to Belgorod to support the Izyum advance. Ukrainian defenders in Mariupol’s Azovstal Steel Plant continue to hold out against heavy Russian artillery and aerial bombardment, including the likely use of multi-ton “bunker-buster” bombs against a Ukrainian field hospital.

Ukrainian news outlet Defense Express reported on April 27 that Russian Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov will take personal command of the Russian offensive in the Izyum direction.[1] Citing unspecified Ukrainian military sources, Defense Express stated that Gerasimov is already in-theater and will command the offensive “at the operational and tactical level” and claimed the Russian military failed to create a single command structure under Southern Military District Commander Alexander Dvornikov. ISW cannot independently confirm this report. However, ISW previously assessed that Dvornikov’s appointment as overall commander in Ukraine would not solve Russia’s command and control challenges and likely strain his span of control.[2] If confirmed, the appointment of Russia’s senior general officer to command tactical operations indicates both the importance of the Izyum drive to Russia’s war in Ukraine and the breakdown in the Russian military’s normal chain of command.

-Russian strategic bombers likely targeted a Ukrainian field hospital in the Azovstal Steel Plant. The remaining Ukrainian defenders are likely running low on supplies.

-Russian attacks southwest of Izyum likely seek to outflank Ukrainian defenses on the direct road to Slovyansk and have made tactical gains in the last 24 hours.

-Russian forces continued tactical ground attacks and shelling along the entire line of contact in eastern Ukraine but did not secure any major advances.

-Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) Head Denis Pushilin stated that the DNR will postpone local Victory Day celebrations planned for May 9 until “the complete victory and the expansion of the DNR" to control Donetsk Oblast, though the Kremlin remains likely to attempt to claim some sort of victory on May 9.

-Russian forces conducted several locally successful attacks from Kherson toward Mykolaiv.

-Russian and proxy forces continued to mobilize in Transnistria and set conditions for a false flag attack.

*** ECONOMIC & POLITICAL ***

-The US House of Representatives has approved a bill that would remove several constraints on sending weapons to Ukraine amid the ongoing Russian offensive. Adopted by the Senate earlier this month, the “Ukraine Democracy Defense Lend-Lease Act” revives the program Washington used to send military equipment to belligerents in WWII while officially staying neutral. The final vote on Thursday afternoon was 417-10, with three members not voting. All of the Democrats voted in favor, while all of the ten members opposed were Republicans.

Introduced by Senator John Cornyn (R-Texas), the bill was passed by the Senate on April 6, but the Democrat-dominated House adjourned for a two-week Easter recess before taking it up. It authorizes the White House to “lend or lease defense articles” to Ukraine or any “Eastern European countries impacted by the Russian Federation’s invasion of Ukraine to help bolster those countries' defense capabilities and protect their civilian populations from potential invasion or ongoing aggression.”  Cornyn’s bill does not create a new program, but rather makes it easier for President Joe Biden to send weapons to Kiev by suspending limitations imposed by two existing laws, one of which caps the length of the aid at five years.

However, the whole thing is conditioned on Ukraine having to pay for the “return of and reimbursement and repayment for defense articles loaned or leased” to it. Kiev’s ability to make such payments is questionable, since the Ukrainian government is currently asking the US and the EU for $7 billion per month just to keep paying salaries and pensions. The lend-lease bill is separate from the ongoing US effort to send Kiev weapons from the Pentagon stockpiles. Biden has already blown through almost $3.5 billion authorized by Congress for the purpose, and is seeking more funding.

-Russia attacked western Kyiv with two cruise missiles during a visit by the UN secretary general, António Guterres, to the Ukrainian capital. Two loud explosions rocked Kyiv on Thursday evening after Guterres visited the site of massacres and mass graves on the city’s outskirts. Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, said the strikes happened “immediately after” his talks with the UN chief. Ten were injured in the blast, which hit the central Shevchenkivskyi district, and three people were hospitalised, according to Ukraine’s state emergency service. A 25-storey residential building was partially destroyed.

-As Russia’s invasion of Ukraine hits its 64th day, a former NATO commander urged the West to prepare for a “worst case” scenario: war with Russia. In response to comments made by the U.K. foreign secretary over the West's needing to “double down” on its support for Ukraine, former NATO commander Richard Shirreff told BBC Radio 4’s “Today” program it was “absolutely the right approach” and that “it’s got to be followed through with significant resources, and it’s got to be done right across the alliance as a whole.” Shirreff, formerly a NATO deputy strategic commander for Europe, went on to caution that the Kremlin is likely to respond to this aggressively and that the West should be prepared for a worst-case scenario. “The worst case is war with Russia,” he said. “By gearing itself up for the worst case, it is most likely to deter [Russian President Vladimir] Putin because ultimately Putin respects strength.”

-The world order created after the Second World War and the Cold War isn’t working anymore, so the West needs “a global NATO” to pursue geopolitics anew, UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss argued, in a major foreign policy speech on Wednesday. Truss also urged the US-led bloc to send more “heavy weapons, tanks” and airplanes to Ukraine, and said China would face the same treatment as Russia if it doesn’t “play by the rules.”

-The European Union will consider it as a violation of sanctions if European energy companies comply with Moscow’s requirement to open a payment account in roubles with Gazprombank, EU officials warned. The EU “cannot accept” that payments in euros for Russian gas are considered completed by Moscow only after they are converted into roubles, an official said.

-UK to send 8,000 soldiers to eastern Europe on expanded exercises. About 8,000 British army troops will take part in exercises across eastern Europe to combat Russian aggression in one of the largest deployments since the cold war. Dozens of tanks will be deployed to countries ranging from Finland to North Macedonia this summer under plans that have been enhanced since Russia invaded Ukraine.

-On Thursday, President Biden asked Congress for an additional $33 billion for military, economic, and humanitarian assistance for Ukraine as the US is preparing to back Kyiv in its war against Moscow for the long term. According to the White House, the massive request includes $20.4 billion in military aid, $8.5 billion in economic aid, and $3 billion in humanitarian assistance. The funds are meant to last through the 2022 fiscal year, which ends on September 30. The military aid will mostly be for Ukraine, but some will go towards arming the US’s Eastern European allies. [To replace the weapons they gave Ukraine from their arsenals.] The White House said the aid will keep “additional artillery, armored vehicles, anti-armor and anti-air capabilities flowing into Ukraine uninterrupted.” In March, Biden signed a spending bill into law that included $13.6 billion in the military and economic aid for Ukraine, but that amount has almost been exhausted. Since Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, the US has sent about $3.7 billion worth of weapons into the war zone.

-The effects of pandemic lockdowns, related supply chain strains, and conflict in Ukraine are wreaking havoc on the world's agricultural system. Readers have heard the likes of the UN warning that Middle Eastern countries are at "breaking points" as food prices hit record highs, and as of last week, the Rockefeller Foundation began the countdown (about six months) to a "massive, immediate food crisis." Now, Goya Foods CEO Bob Unanue has issued a similar warning: "We are on the precipice of a global food crisis."  In a Wednesday interview, Unanue told Fox Business's Maria Bartiromo, "Americans will have to tighten their belts and consume less," in response to her question about a potential food shortage crisis. Bartiromo then asked a series of questions, such as "Do you think things will get worse?" and "Do you think food prices will go even higher later this year?"  He warned about an imbalance in world food production, indicating "farmers are paying double for fertilizer, they're planting less and yields will be less." Unanue then spoke about "30% of the global wheat production in Ukraine goes unplanted." He said the "global food supply chain is a very tight balance. If we interrupt the food production, we will have a food crisis that will send prices through the roof."

-After throughout the whole month consistently rejecting a proposed European Union ban on Russian oil, but while also walking a delicate tightrope of opposing Putin's demand of payments in rubles for Russian energy, Germany is now ready to pull the trigger on an embargo. It's another major Berlin U-turn happening in tandem with the decision to send heavy weapons to Ukraine. The Wall Street Journal is citing Berlin government officials who say "Germany is now ready to stop buying Russian oil." The WSJ underscores that this "clears the way" for a wider EU ban on Russian oil imports, given that Germany's resistance was the chief holdout to imposing an embargo before this point. Further the report indicates that an embargo now seen as "imminent" but it remains that no target date has been set yet, or at least hasn't been disclosed publicly. While events earlier in the week made clear that this was coming, preparing markets, oil began surging on the news.

Germany appears to have lifted its objection based on prior negotiations to implement a phased-in Russian oil embargo, similar to the phased approach regarding the coal ban. Additionally, other countries particularly in eastern Europe have lately appeared willing to step up in taking the pressure off Germany supply - for example Poland says it's ready to supply a German refinery via Gdansk which is owned by Rosneft. "Should Rosneft refuse to process non-Russian oil imports, Germany could put the refinery under state management under laws protecting strategic assets," the report says. But the elephant in the room is that some eastern European countries are actually close to 100% reliant on Russian oil, or with many approaching total dependency.

-Rescuers have found two more bodies after a fire at a Russian aerospace defence research institute broke out last week, bringing the total number of deaths to 22, Tass news agency cited local emergency services as saying on Thursday. One person is still believed to be missing, the Russian state outlet said. The institute is in the city of Tver, about 160km (100 miles) northwest of Moscow. Authorities have opened a criminal investigation after media reports that an electrical fault caused the blaze.

-The UN general assembly will vote on 11 May on a country to replace Russia on the world organisation’s leading human rights body after its suspension over allegations of rights violations by Russian soldiers in Ukraine. Assembly spokeswoman Paulina Kubiak said the Czech Republic was the only candidate for the seat on the 47-member human rights council.

-The Kremlin said the “pumping” of western arms supplies to Ukraine posed a threat to the security of the European continent. On Wednesday, the UK foreign secretary, Liz Truss, said countries opposed to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine must “ramp up” military production to help Ukraine, including by supplying heavy weapons, tanks and planes.

-In the U.S., underground energy storage facilities containing about 100 million tons of oil have long existed. This is a little more than 730 million barrels. This volume will be enough for American consumers for a month and a half. Approximately the same amount of “black gold” is contained in European hydrocarbon warehouses. Russia cannot boast of similar volumes yet – the lion’s share of production is traditionally sent for export by our country, and domestic consumption is ensured by an increase in production at fields constantly included in the energy system. The imposition of a European moratorium on the purchase of “black gold” from our country threatens to break the long-established structure:Europeans will have to find alternative suppliers of raw materials, and Russia will need to agree on an increase in exports to countries that have not joined the economic sanctions against Moscow.

-Moldova’s deputy prime minister, Nicu Popescu, said the country was facing “a very dangerous new moment” as unnamed forces were seeking to stoke tensions after a series of explosions in the breakaway region of Transnistria this week. Popescu said his government had seen “a dangerous deterioration of the situation” in recent days amid attacks in the breakaway region.

-Efforts are under way to get emergency contraception into Ukrainian hospitals as quickly as possible, as reports of rape after the Russian invasion continue to rise. About 25,000 packets of the medication, also known as the morning-after pill, have been sent by International Planned Parenthood Federation (IPPF).

-Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak, has thanked Germany after lawmakers voted overwhelmingly in favour of providing Kyiv with “heavy weapons and complex systems”. The Bundestag vote represents a historic shift in policy for Germany — after the government held off for weeks on sending heavy equipment.

-Finland will not pay for Russian gas in roubles despite Russia’s request for European countries to do so, the Finnish minister in charge of European affairs, Tytti Tuppurainen, said. Reuters cited Tuppurainen as telling reporters that Finland would seek to end its use of all Russian fossil fuel as soon as possible

-Biden to propose using assets seized from Russian oligarchs to compensate Ukraine. The US president, Joe Biden, is expected to ask Congress for billions of dollars in additional US spending to support Ukraine’s military as well as new legal authorities to siphon assets from Russian oligarchs to pay for the war effort.

-Lietuvos Gelezinkeliai (Lithuanian Railways, LTG) said on Thursday it is planning to lay off around 2,000 of its 9,000-plus employees, with around a quarter of the state-owned group’s managerial staff at various levels set to leave. The company said in a press release that 6 million euros will be allocated for severance payments to employees. The company has said earlier that it may lose some 150 million euros in revenue this year as freight volumes are forecast to halve, compared to last year, to around 26.5 million tons.

-India has asked state-run energy companies to evaluate the possibility of acquiring oil major BP’s stake in sanctions-hit Russian firm Rosneft, sources told Reuters on Thursday. BP had earlier announced it was abandoning its 19.75% stake in the Russian company. Sources familiar with the matter said that the Indian oil ministry last week conveyed its intent to ONGC Videsh (OVL), Indian Oil, Bharat Petro Resources, Hindustan Petroleum’s subsidiary Prize Petroleum, Oil India and GAIL (India). The ministry also asked OVL, the overseas investment arm of Oil and Natural Gas, to consider buying a 30% stake held by US supermajor ExxonMobil in the Sakhalin 1 project in Russia’s Far East. OVL already holds a 20% stake in the project.