*** MILITARY SITUATION ***
The Russian missile cruiser Moskva, flagship of the Black Sea Fleet, sunk on April 14 after a likely Ukrainian anti-ship missile strike on April 13. Ukrainian forces claimed to strike the Moskva with two Neptune anti-ship cruise missiles on April 13.[1] The Kremlin denied this claim and stated the Moskva suffered damage from an accidental fire and ammunition explosion.[2] Initial Ukrainian claims to have sunk the warship on April 13 were likely false, but the Russian Ministry of Defense confirmed the Moskva sank in a storm while being towed to Crimea after the crew evacuated.[3] ISW cannot independently confirm that a Ukrainian strike sunk the Moskva, though Ukrainian forces likely have the capability to have done so.
The loss of the Moskva—regardless if from a Ukrainian strike or an accident—is a major propaganda victory for Ukraine. The sinking of the Moskva, which was involved in the infamous “Snake Island” incident in the early days of the Russian invasion, is a boon to Ukrainian morale as a symbol of Ukrainian capabilities to strike back at the Russian navy. The Kremlin will conversely struggle to explain away the loss of one of the most important vessels in the Russian fleet. The Kremlin’s current story of losing the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet due to an accidental fire and ammunition explosion will, at minimum, likely hurt Russian morale and cannot be hidden from the Russian domestic audience. Both explanations for the sinking of the Moskva indicate possible Russian deficiencies—either poor air defenses or incredibly lax safety procedures and damage control on the Black Sea Fleet’s flagship.
The loss of the Moskva will reduce Russia’s ability to conduct cruise missile strikes but is unlikely to deal a decisive blow to Russian operations on the whole. The Moskva’s main role was likely conducting precision strikes with Kalibr cruise missiles on targets in Ukrainian rear areas, including logistics centers and airfields. These Russian strikes have been effective but limited in number compared to airstrikes and ground-launched cruise missiles throughout the invasion, and the loss of the Moskva is unlikely to be a decisive blow. Ukraine's possibly demonstrated ability to target Russian warships in the Black Sea may change Russian operating patterns, however, forcing them to either deploy additional air and point-defense assets to the Black Sea battlegroup or withdraw vessels from positions near the Ukrainian coast.
-The flagship of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet sunk on April 14 following a likely Ukrainian cruise missile strike on April 13. The loss of the Moskva is a significant propaganda victory for Ukraine but will likely have only limited effects on Russian operations.
-Ukrainian officials admitted Russian forces captured “some” personnel from Ukraine’s 36th Marine Brigade in Mariupol despite initial denials, though Ukrainian defenders predominantly continued to hold out against Russian assaults.
-Russian forces may have committed damaged units withdrawn from northeastern Ukraine to combat operations in eastern Ukraine for the first time on April 14. Continued daily Russian attacks in eastern Ukraine are failing to take any territory.
-Ukrainian partisans have likely been active in the Melitopol region since at least mid-March.
-Russian forces continued to redeploy from Belarus to Russia for further deployment to eastern Ukraine.
*** ECONOMIC & POLITICAL ***
-Vladimir Putin may resort to using a tactical or low-yield nuclear weapon in light of military setbacks in the invasion of Ukraine, the CIA director, William Burns, has said. During a speech in Atlanta, Burns said: “Given the potential desperation of President Putin and the Russian leadership … none of us can take lightly the threat posed by a potential resort to tactical nuclear weapons or low-yield nuclear weapons.” The Kremlin placed Russian nuclear forces on high alert shortly after the assault began on 24 February.
-Russia’s deputy foreign minister Alexander Grushko said Moscow would take “security and defence measures that we will deem necessary” if Sweden and Finland join Nato. In an interview with the Russian state-owned news agency Tass, the minister said the membership in the military alliance would “seriously worsen the military situation” and lead to “the most undesirable consequences”.
-Canada will deploy up to 150 military personnel in the coming days to Poland to support Warsaw’s efforts in assisting Ukrainian refugees, Canadian Defense Minister Anita Anand announced on Thursday.
-The United Kingdom would support Sweden and Finland in a NATO membership bid, Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said Thursday.
-French President Emmanuel Macron has pledged to deliver 24 fire trucks and ambulances as well as 50 tons of emergency equipment to Ukraine.
-Russian President Vladimir Putin said Thursday that Russia is looking to focus its exports on "the fast-growing markets" to the country's south and east in the near future. He warned that “attempts by Western countries to squeeze” Russian suppliers “will inevitably affect the entire world economy.” “It is necessary to diversify exports. We need to assume that in the foreseeable future, deliveries of energy in the western direction will be reduced. Therefore, it is important to consolidate the trend of recent years: step by step, reorientate our exports to the fast-growing markets of the south and east. To do this in the near future, time to identify key infrastructure facilities and start their construction,” the Russian president said Thursday during a meeting with energy companies and officials. Putin added that there is no reasonable alternative to Russian gas, warning that if Russian energy supplies get squeezed, it will affect the entire world economy and have “painful” consequences.
-Russia has asked Brazil for support in the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and the G20 group of top economies to help it counter crippling sanctions imposed by the west since it invaded Ukraine, according to a letter seen by Reuters. Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov wrote to economy minister Paulo Guedes asking for Brazil’s “support to prevent political accusations and discrimination attempts in international financial institutions and multilateral fora.”
-Russia’s investigative committee said Ukrainian forces carried out at least six helicopter airstrikes on the village of Klimovo in the Russian region of Bryansk, injuring seven people. The Bryansk region governor said earlier that two residential buildings in the village had been hit by shelling, which is north of the Ukrainian region of Chernihiv. Additionally, a village in Russia’s Belgorod region had come under fire from Ukraine, the region’s governor said.
-The first Russian troops that had left northern Ukraine have begun appearing in the northern Donbas region of eastern Ukraine in preparation for what is expected to be a major push by thousands of Russian forces a senior US defense official said Thursday. “They already have a significant amount of forces in the region," the official told reporters on Thursday. "We would assess that inside Ukraine itself, there’s 65 total operational BTGs. And they are, of the 65, they’re really in that east and south parts of Ukraine. There really isn’t any operation BTGs outside southern and eastern Ukraine ... They will try to insert additional BTGs over coming days. We just haven’t seen that really pan out of late." These are some of the units that had left northern Ukraine and the areas north of Kyiv in recent weeks to go back to Russia and Belarus for resupply and reinforcement before going to Donbas, the official noted.
-The United States and Japan have rejected media reports suggesting Tokyo will be invited to join a security pact with Australia and the UK to jointly develop hypersonic weapons, insisting there are no plans to include other nations.
-French presidential candidate Marine Le Pen - who is now in a close second behind President Macron following Sunday's first round vote and ahead of the next round April 24 presidential election, and who is often dubbed "far-right nationalist" in establishment media - said Wednesday that she plans to propose closer links between NATO and Russia once the Ukraine war concludes.
-Taiwan's military took the dramatic step of issuing a public emergency handbook meant to prepare all citizens in the event of a Chinese invasion of the island. The 28-page booklet includes detailed instructions on bomb shelter locations and how to stockpile emergency supplies, as well as basic life-saving steps.
-Lithuania’s prime minister, Ingrida Šimonyte, has dismissed the earlier words of Dmitry Medvedev threatening Nato over the possibility of Finland and Sweden joining as “nothing new”. Reuters report she told the media “That Russia threatens, it is nothing new. Kaliningrad is a very militarized zone, has been for many years, and it is in the Baltic region.” The BNS agency quotes her being strongly supportive of the potential moves for Sweden and Finland to join the alliance.
-Amazon is the latest company to implement a plan to combat soaring fuel costs: charge sellers on its giant e-commerce platform an inflation tax. To compensate for rising fuel costs, Amazon will charge sellers a 5% fuel and inflation fee that will go into effect on April 28, according to Bloomberg, citing a person familiar with the matter. The surcharge will apply to sellers who use Amazon's massive network of fulfillment centers across the US to sell goods. Fulfillment centers handle the logistics of getting goods to consumers' doorstep but take a massive network of fuel-guzzling planes, trains, trucks, and vans for the e-commerce company to deliver on its two-day promise.
-Ukrainian forces have conducted a cross-border attack on Russian territory, however Kiev has rejected the claims, saying they are intended to stoke "anti-Ukrainian" sentiment among Putin's domestic population. "The village of Spodaryushino, near the border with Ukraine, had been shelled by Ukraine, Vyacheslav Gladkov, the governor of Russia's Belgorod region, said in a statement on Telegram," CNN cited the Russian official as saying. Moscow is threatening retaliation by striking "decision-making centers". No casualties were reported, but the governor said residents in the villages of Bezymeno and Spodaryushino had to be evacuated due to "shelling from the Ukrainian side" - which resulted in damage to buildings and residential property. It comes days after Russia alleged a cross-border strike conducted by helicopters, which Russian authorities are now investigating.
-An internal European Commission note, the contents of which has come to light and is being reported for the first time on Thursday, has spelled out that European buyers agreeing to pay for Russian gas in roubles would violation EU sanctions against Moscow.
-The White House is in current discussions on sending a senior admin official to Kiev, following UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson's surprise trip last week. Also this week Polish President Andrzej Duda and the presidents of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia did the same, where they met with Volodymyr Zelensky. It appears the White House needs a 'symbolic' show of solidarity in Ukraine's capital too.
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