Russia/Ukraine War Update - April 28th, 2022

*** MILITARY SITUATION ***

Russian forces made minor but steady advances both from Izyum and in continued assaults along the line of contact in eastern Ukraine on April 27. Russian forces took several small towns directly west of Izyum in the past 24 hours. While this line of advance takes Russian forces away from their main objective of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts, they likely intend to outflank Ukrainian defensive positions on the highways to Barvinkove and Slovyansk. Russian forces made several small advances in eastern Ukraine; Russia’s increasing concentration of artillery assets is likely enabling these tactical advances. Russian forces are advancing methodically in several sectors but have achieved no notable breakthroughs. The capability of Russian forces to encircle large groups of Ukrainian forces remains in doubt.

The Kremlin continued to prepare for a likely false-flag missile attack against the Moldovan territory of Transnistria, which is illegally occupied by Russian forces. Russian proxies in Transnistria falsely claimed Ukrainian forces are preparing to attack Transnistria, and Ukrainian intelligence reported Russian forces are preparing to conduct a missile strike on Transnistria and blame Ukraine. Russian and Transnistrian forces also increased their readiness for possible operations in the last 24 hours. Russia may intend to involve Transnistria in the war in Ukraine to utilize Transnistria’s (limited) reserve forces or to launch attacks and shell Ukraine from Transnistrian territory. The Kremlin may alternatively seek to destabilize Moldova itself to raise tensions in Moldova and neighboring Romania and put additional pressure on NATO, possibly seeking to reduce Western military support to Ukraine either by diverting NATO forces to Romania or threatening a wider escalation.

Russian forces are stepping up “filtration measures” in occupied territories and abducting Ukrainian citizens, likely for use in future prisoner exchanges. Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on April 27 that Russian forces are conducting large-scale “filtration measures” in Kharkiv, Zaporizhia, Kherson, Mykolaiv, Luhansk, and Donetsk Oblasts.[1] The “filtration” targets men of military age, former military and law enforcement personnel, and pro-Ukrainian activists for interrogation, torture, and possible execution. The GUR reported Russian forces are additionally shipping Ukrainian hostages to Crimea to “replenish the exchange fund,” seeking to exchange Ukrainian civilians for Russian military prisoners in future prisoner swaps. The GUR additionally speculated that Russian forces may be preparing to use Ukrainian civilians to portray Prisoners of War in May 9th Victory Day celebrations, noting that Russian forces conducted similar propaganda efforts in Donetsk in 2014.

Ukrainian forces likely conducted drone or possibly missile strikes on Russian logistics centers in Belgorod and Voronezh on April 27. Russian sources and social media reported multiple explosions early on April 27, which Ukrainian Presidential Advisor Mikhail Podolyak later euphemistically confirmed were Ukrainian strikes, stating Russian cities cannot “sit out” the invasion of Ukraine and “the disarmament of the Belgorod-Voronezh warehouses is a natural process.”[2] Ukrainian forces will likely conduct further cross-border strikes to disrupt Russian logistics, which the Kremlin will likely falsely frame as an escalation or somehow a war crime.

-Concentrated artillery is likely enabling limited Russian advances in eastern Ukraine, though Russian forces continue to struggle to break through prepared Ukrainian defenses.

-Russian forces funneled additional reinforcements and tactical missile units into the Izyum front and made minor advances. Russian forces are likely attempting to bypass Ukrainian forces on the road to Barvinkove by advancing directly west before pivoting southwards in the coming days.

-Heavy Russian bombardment and continued assaults failed to make headway against Ukrainian defenders in Mariupol’s Azovstal plant, even as Russian forces reportedly prepared to stage a press tour in the occupied areas of the city on April 28.

-Russian forces around Kherson are likely preparing for a renewed push to capture the entirety of Kherson Oblast in the coming days but Ukrainian counterattacks continue to disrupt Russian operations in the area.

-Russian occupation forces continued preparations to announce the creation of a Russian proxy “Kherson People’s Republic” (KNR) amid widespread Ukrainian resistance.

-The Kremlin may be preparing to either bring Transnistria into the war in Ukraine or destabilize Moldova itself to put additional pressure on NATO.

*** ECONOMIC & POLITICAL ***

-The total losses inflicted upon Ukraine from the war have reached $600 billion, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said. Russia considers gas and 'any trade' as a weapon, Zelenskiy says. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy also addressed what he called Russia’s “energy blackmail” against Europe in his nightly national address.

-Canadian lawmakers have voted unanimously to call Russia’s attacks in Ukraine a “genocide”, with members of parliament saying there was “ample evidence of systemic and massive war crimes against humanity” being committed by Moscow.

-A supplemental budget request that includes Ukraine aid could be sent to the Congress as soon as Thursday, the White House said on Wednesday. The plan will cover military, humanitarian and economic assistance for Ukraine, White House spokesperson Jen Psaki told reporters.

-The unavoidable truth looming over Europe’s response to the invasion of Ukraine is that Russian gas heats the continent’s homes and powers its industries. While European leaders have vowed to wean themselves off Kremlin-controlled supplies, both of gas and oil, the reality is that this is very hard to do in short order. There will be at least one more cold winter to come before major energy-hungry economies that rely heavily on Russia, such as Germany and Italy, can tap other sources.

-Russia has warned other EU customers may be cut off from Russian natural gas supplies if they refuse to pay in roubles. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov’s comments came after Russia halted gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria, a move that European leaders denounced as “blackmail”, which the Kremlin later denied. Poland’s prime minister, Mateusz Morawiecki, described Russia’s move as “a direct attack” on Poland.

-Russia has nearly doubled its revenues from selling fossil fuels to the EU during the two months of war in Ukraine, benefiting from soaring prices even as volumes have been reduced, Guardian reporter Fiona Harvey writes for us today. Russia has received about €62bn from exports of oil, gas and coal in the two months since the invasion began. For the EU, imports were about €44bn for the past two months, compared with about €140bn for the whole of last year, or roughly €12bn a month.

-Uniper, Germany’s top importer of Russian gas, will transfer payments for Russian gas to a Russian bank and no longer to a Europe-based bank, newspaper Rheinische Post is reporting. “The plan is to make our payments in euros to an account in Russia,” the daily paper cited a Uniper spokesperson as saying. Even though Russia has demanded rouble payments for its gas, the payments system it has proposed foresees the use of accounts at Gazprombank, which would convert payments made in euros or dollars into roubles.

-Russia has warned other EU customers may be cut off from Russian natural gas supplies if they refuse to pay in roubles. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov’s comments came after Russia halted gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria, a move that European leaders denounced as “blackmail”, which the Kremlin later denied. Poland’s prime minister, Mateusz Morawiecki, described Russia’s move as “a direct attack” on Poland.

-Countries opposed to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine must double down on their support for Kyiv, including the supply of heavy weapons, tanks and aeroplanes, British foreign secretary Liz Truss has said.

-The rouble soared to a more than two-year high against the euro in Moscow trade on Wednesday, Reuters reports. Russia halted gas supplies to Bulgaria and Poland for rejecting its demand for payment in roubles on Wednesday. By 2:18pm GMT, the rouble had gained 1.8% to trade at 75.43 versus the euro , its strongest since early March 2020. It was 1.1% stronger against the dollar at 72.75 .

-The Kremlin on Tuesday reiterated some accusations which had been advanced earlier by President Vladimir Putin in the days leading up to the Feb.24 invasion of Ukraine, charging that the Kiev government is developing nuclear weapons with the support of the United States. The nuclear allegations came this time from Secretary of the Russian Security Council Nikolai Patrushev, who said according to Fox, citing state agencies, "The need for demilitarization is due to the fact that Ukraine, saturated with weapons, poses a threat to Russia, including from the point of view of the development and use of nuclear, chemical and biological weapons." The words were issued the same day that the Pentagon slammed the growing 'nuclear rhetoric' out of Russia as "very dangerous and unhelpful" - in reference to Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov's Tuesday remarks that said the threat of nuclear confrontation with the West "is real". "The danger is serious," Lavrov had said in a Russian media interview. "It is real. It should not be underestimated." This has led to further tit-for-tat accusations between Moscow and Kiev, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky giving a fresh speech that urged international powers to take 'global control' over Russia's thousands of nukes.

-The US government is providing $670m in food assistance to combat food insecurity due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the US government announced today. The money will come from the agriculture department and the US Agency for International Development (USAID).

-US secretary of state Antony Blinken told Congress that the US is working on reopening its embassy in Ukraine. “I think this will play out over the next few weeks,” he said.

-The Kremlin is planning to hold “referendums” in Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine about joining Russia, according to the Latvia-based news outlet Meduza

-Reuters is reporting that a giant steel plant in Kryvyi Rih, central Ukraine’s largest city, is slowly starting up again after shutting down at the start of the Russian invasion.

-Two American volunteers fighting in Ukraine were reportedly wounded by artillery fire near the city of Orikhiv in the Zaporizhzhia region. US army veterans Manus McCaffrey and Paul Gray were working together as a team targeting Russian tanks with Javelin anti-tank systems when they were injured, according to reports.

-A report from Microsoft says that state-supported Russian hackers have conducted “relentless and destructive” cyberattacks in Ukraine, destroying the data of governmental and infrastructure organizations. Microsoft said that it has observed nearly 40 attacks, “targeting hundreds of systems”.

-The UK is “digging deep” into its inventories, including heavy weapons, tanks and aeroplanes, to defend Ukraine and other countries threatened by Russia, Truss added. “Some argue we shouldn’t provide heavy weapons for fear of provoking something worse. But my view, is that inaction would be the greatest provocation,” she said. Truss singled out China, demanding it “play by the rules”. “China is not impervious. They will not continue to rise if they do not play by the rules. China needs trade with the G7. We represent around half of the global economy. And we have choices. We have shown with Russia the kind of choices that we’re prepared to make when international rules are violated,” she said.

-A former head of the Polish army has accused Boris Johnson of “tempting evil” by revealing that Ukrainian soldiers were being trained in Poland in how to use British anti-aircraft missiles before returning with them to Ukraine. Gen Waldemar Skrzypczak complained that a loose-lipped PM had revealed too much to the Russians and that his remarks risked the safety of the soldiers involved.

-Palm oil futures jumped 10% to a new record-high as Indonesia expanded its cooking oil export ban to include crude palm oil to ensure domestic supplies were stable, according to Bloomberg. Indonesia, the world's biggest cooking oil shipper, initially said the temporary export ban would only apply to refined, bleached, and deodorized palm olein. However, Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Airlangga Hartarto said the ban would be expanded to crude palm oil, RBD palm oil, and used cooking oil. The new export ban begins Thursday.  The export ban is a form of food protectionism that will exacerbate the global food crisis. Indonesia's decision to add palm oil and various forms of cooking oil to a temporary export ban is roiling the global $50 billion palm oil market. China, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and India are the top importers of Indonesia's palm olein.

Indonesia, the world's biggest cooking oil shipper, initially said the temporary export ban would only apply to refined, bleached, and deodorized palm olein. However, Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Airlangga Hartarto said the ban would be expanded to crude palm oil, RBD palm oil, and used cooking oil. The new export ban begins Thursday.

-Belarus has moved to make attempted acts of terrorism punishable by the death penalty after activists tried to sabotage parts of the railway network to make it harder for Russia to deploy forces into Ukraine for its invasion. The Belarusian lower house of parliament approved the change to the criminal code, which now needs backing from the upper house and Belarusian leader, Alexander Lukashenko, before entering force.

-More than 4,000 applications have been filed to sponsor Ukrainians seeking to come to the US within 48 hours of the Biden administration launching ‘Uniting for Ukraine,’ a streamlined process for those fleeing war-torn Ukraine, a USCIS spokesperson told CNN.

-A former head of the Polish army has accused Boris Johnson of “tempting evil” by revealing that Ukrainian soldiers were being trained in Poland in how to use British anti-aircraft missiles before returning with them to Ukraine. Gen Waldemar Skrzypczak complained that a loose-lipped PM had revealed too much to the Russians and that his remarks risked the safety of the soldiers involved.

-The interior ministry of Moldova’s breakaway region of Transnistria issued a statement claiming it came under attack from Ukraine. It said drones were spotted and shots were fired near Kolbasna, which it claims contains one of the largest ammunition dumps in Europe.

-Two American volunteers fighting in Ukraine were reportedly wounded by artillery fire near the city of Orikhiv in the Zaporizhzhia region. US army veterans Manus McCaffrey and Paul Gray were working together as a team targeting Russian tanks with Javelin anti-tank systems when they were injured, according to reports.

-The European Commission has proposed suspending import duties on all Ukrainian products to help the country’s economy during the war with Russia. The proposed one-year suspension, which would need to be approved by the European Parliament and its 27 member states, comes a day after Britain announced it was dropping all tariffs on Ukrainian goods.

-Russia’s foreign ministry announced sanctions on 287 members of Britain’s House of Commons, accusing them of “whipping up Russophobic hysteria”.

-The arms that Lithuania can provide to Ukraine have practically dried up. The country might soon need to choose between continuing its support of Ukraine and maintaining its own defence capabilities, authorities say. Ukraine has provided a list of equipment that different countries have and could send to Ukraine, according to Lithuanian Defence Minister Arvydas Anušauskas. Some have heavy weapons, while others have ammunition or spare parts for repairing equipment. “Lithuania may not have much in the way of heavy weapons, but we do have some artillery capability. We have handed over to Ukraine heavy mortars along with ammunition,” Anušauskas told LRT TV. But Laurynas Kasčiūnas, chairman of the parliamentary Committee on National Security and Defence (NSDK), says that Lithuania has almost exhausted its military resources for supporting Ukraine.

-One day after Russia halted natgas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria due to "nonpayment in rubles", confirming that the country is willing to go ahead with its bluff and shut down supplies to "unfriendly" nations and sending European nat gas prices soaring, Bloomberg reports citing a person close to Russian gas giant Gazprom, that already Europe's fake united front is cracking as four European gas buyers have already paid for supplies in rubles as Russia demanded even as further cutoffs if others refuse the Kremlin’s requirement aren’t likely until the second half of May, when the next payments are due. While it was unclear which are the four companies violating EU directives and paying directly in rubles, according to Reuters Germany' Uniper and Austrian OMV are among the companies that have folded to Kremlin' demands.

Pro-Russian EU member Hungary, meanwhile, has struck a deal to pay into a euro-denominated account with Gazprombank, which in turn will deposit the amount in roubles to Gazprom Export, foreign minister Peter Szijjarto said in a video posted to Facebook. Its next payment is due on May 22, he said. Slovakia has reached the same agreement, he added as more of Europe realizes that it is impossible to live without Russian energy sources. Separately, to facilitate their compliance with Russian demands (and ostensibly in breach of European sanctions), ten European companies have already opened the accounts at Gazprombank needed to meet President Vladimir Putin’s payment demands, the person said, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss confidential matters.

-For the second day in a row, explosions rocked the separatist region of Trans-Dniester in Moldova, knocking out two powerful radio antennas close to the Ukrainian border and further heightening fears of a broader conflict erupting across Europe. Over the past few days, multiple attacks and explosions have been reported in the breakaway Transnistria region of Moldova that borders Ukraine. Transnistria has been a de facto independent state since 1992 and hosts about 1,500 Russian troops on a "peacekeeping" mission. On Monday, several explosions that were said to be caused by rocket-propelled grenades reportedly hit Transnistria’s Ministry of State Security in the capital Tiraspol. On Tuesday, the territory’s Security Council said a "terrorist attack" hit a military unit near Tiraspol.

-Russia’s defence ministry warned of an immediate “proportional response” if Britain continues its “direct provocation” of the Kyiv regime, after the UK armed forces minister, James Heappey, described Ukrainian strikes on Russian soil that hit supplies and disrupt logistics as “completely legitimate”.

-On Sunday, retired U.S. general and former top NATO commander Gen. Philip Breedlove told The Times of London: "So what could the West do? Well, right now there are no Russian troops west of the Dnieper River. So why don’t we put Nato troops into western Ukraine to carry out humanitarian missions and to set up a forward arms supply base?" The escalation of NATO boots on the ground inside Ukraine would make NATO a direct participant in the war, dramatically increase the likelihood of Russian attacks on NATO personnel and facilities, and raise the risk of a nuclear conflict. Breedlove, whom The Times notes is “advising the Biden administration on Ukraine,” also works as a consultant for the weapons industry, a fact which The Times did not disclose.

-Australia will send six M777 howitzers and ammunition to Ukraine as part of a $26.7m package in its response to “Russia’s brutal, unrelenting and illegal invasion” a statement from prime minister Scott Morrison and defence minster Peter Dutton said on Wednesday.

-Canada will also ramp up its military aid to Ukraine with aims to send eight armoured vehicles manufactured by Roshel “as quickly as possible”, minister of defence Anita Anand announced. Last week, Canada delivered M777 howitzers, associated ammunition, and Carl Gustaf weapons to Ukrainian Forces, Anand added.

-The U.S. Army plans to launch a swarm of up to 30 small drones networked into a swarm later this month over the Utah desert as part of an international exercise. Deployed from an advanced echelon of a dual air-assault mission by helicopter-borne troops from the U.S. Army and allied participants, the swarm will be the largest group of interactive air-launched effects (ALEs) the Army has ever tested. A mix of Area-I's small Air-Launched, Tube-Integrated, Unmanned System 600 (ALTIUS 600) and Raytheon-built Coyote drones will be launched from a variety of aircraft and ground vehicles at the Army’s 2022 Experimental Demonstration Gateway Exercise (EDGE 22) that runs from April 25 to May 12 at Dugway Proving Ground near Salt Lake City, Utah.

-On Tuesday journalist Glenn Greenwald warned, "Whatever your views on the moral dimensions of this war, it's hard to deny this is the most dangerous moment in US foreign policy in two decades. Every week, US/NATO involvement in the war intensifies, as Russia explicitly warns of nuclear war. For what?" Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on Monday in his most alarming comments yet on the Ukraine war warned there is now "considerable" risk of armed conflict spreading beyond Ukraine's borders. He blasted NATO's ramped up arms shipments to Kiev as part of its "proxy war" against Moscow, warning further that the possibility of a lead-up to nuclear war "should not be underestimated." "The risks now are considerable," Lavrov said of the possibility for nuclear conflict, according to a Russian foreign ministry transcript. "The danger is serious, real. And we must not underestimate it," he added. "NATO, in essence, is engaged in a war with Russia through a proxy and is arming that proxy. War means war." This kind of maximalist talk out of Moscow of the worst-case scenario appears to have completely undeterred Washington or its allies. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on the same day promised Ukraine's government to "keep moving heaven and earth" to ensure its Ukrainian military has whatever it needs to take on the invading Russian forces.

-Drone giant DJI Technology Co said it will temporarily suspend business in Russia and Ukraine to ensure its products are not used in combat, making it the first major Chinese firm to halt sales to Russia since Moscow invaded Ukraine in February.

-Kazakhstan may declare a prominent Russian television host persona non grata after he said the central Asian nation could meet the same fate as Ukraine if it did not side decisively with Russia, a Kazakh official said on Wednesday.