*** MILITARY SITUATION ***
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 6th
Russian forces continued to reposition to continue their invasion in eastern and southern Ukraine, having abandoned the attack on Kyiv. They have largely completed their withdrawal from the Kyiv area and are reportedly redeploying some of the withdrawn combat forces from Belarus to Russia. Ukrainian forces are moving to regain control over segments of the state border in Chernihiv, having already done so in Kyiv and Zhytomyr Oblasts. Russian troops are pulling back toward Russia along the Sumy axis as well, but it is not yet clear if they intend to retreat all the way back to the border or will try to hold some forward positions on the Sumy axis.
Russia has not yet committed forces withdrawn from the Battle of Kyiv back into the fighting in eastern Ukraine. Russian reinforcements continuing the drive southeast from Izyum toward Slovyansk are from elements of 1st Guards Tank Army units that had been in the Kharkiv-Sumy area. Russian units that retreated from Kyiv will not likely regain combat effectiveness for some time, and it is not clear that the Russians intend to return them to the fight soon. That said, an unconfirmed Ukrainian military intelligence report suggests that Moscow could soon send the 64th Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 35th Combined Arms Army, a unit that reportedly committed war crimes in Bucha, into the fight in eastern Ukraine in the hopes that guilty members of that brigade and witnesses of its war crimes are killed in combat with Ukrainian forces.
Belgorod continues to emerge as the primary concentration area for Russian forces regrouping and refitting after their retreat from Kyiv and in preparation for onward movement to their home stations or to join the fighting in the east. Elements of the Central Military District pulling back from Chernihiv Oblast are reportedly on their way to Belgorod. Their final destination is not yet known.
The Battle of Mariupol continues, with Russian forces continuing to pound the city using artillery and airpower. The constrained information environment in Mariupol prevents us from assessing concrete changes in control of terrain, but Ukrainian forces appear to be sustaining organized resistance in parts of the city.
Russian offensive operations southeast from Izyum toward Slovyansk continued on a small scale and made limited progress. Russia has not yet attempted to mass large concentrations of forces on this axis but continues instead to send individual battalion tactical groups to advance on their own.
The past 24 hours saw Russian forces continue retreat from the Sumy oblast, although a small portion maintains a token Russian force. Redeployment of units from Kyiv & Sumy to Izium continues.
Kharkiv-Donbas Strategic Front. Russian forces continue small-scale offensive action SW of Izium and in the Sievierodonetsk salient. Separatist forces are still attempting to breakthrough Ukrainian defenses along the LOC. Mariupol has yet to fall to Russian forces.
Russian force buildup. The Russian military has begun to concentrate redeployed forces from the Sumy & Kyiv-Chernihiv Strategic Fronts to the region between Balakilisk and Izium. These units most likely are the best capable to come from these former fronts.
It is likely these units have probably been filled with cannibalized personnel and equipment from units deemed too damaged to function effectively.
Donets River Line. Russian & Separatist forces have not made any meaningful gains in the Sievierodonetsk Salient for the past several days. Russian forces will undoubtedly advance on Sloviansk, this may not be the main effort of a renewed offensive.
Russian forces may instead advance further to the west and south to create a large cauldron to be reduced by artillery and air strikes. Given the high losses sustained by Russian forces throughout the UTW, these seems like the logical operational approach.
VKS continues to steadily increase air sorties in east and south Ukraine. Priority of missions seem to be in Mariupol & in the Sievierodonetsk Salient. Pressure is maintained against Kharkiv through air & artillery strikes.
New Russian losses include 2x MBTs destroyed (1x T-72B, 1x unknown), 28x BMP IFVs (21x destroyed, 6x captured, 1x abandoned), 1x KA-52 AH & 1x Orlan-10 UAV shot down, 2x KamAZ trucks & 7x other types destroyed.
President Zelensky delivered a message to the UN Security Council on Tuesday. However, there is a risk that continued brow beating of international leaders, especially from Europe, may work against attempts to secure aid. Zelensky’s frustration is completely understandable. Without substantial and expanded military assistance, Ukraine will not be able to defeat Russia. Without humanitarian and financial assistance Ukraine will take decades to recover.
*** ECONOMIC & POLITICAL ***-
-As the Russian invasion of Ukraine grinds on and the two sides continue negotiations, the Washington Post reports that some NATO states prefer Ukrainians continue “fighting and dying” over “a peace that comes too early,” rejecting any outcome that could be sold as a “victory” for Moscow. Though Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly acknowledged that his country will not join the NATO alliance in recent weeks, some members are loath for Kiev to accept that key Russian demand, according to officials and diplomats cited by the Post. “Even a Ukrainian vow not to join NATO could be a concern to some neighbors,” the outlet reported. “That leads to an awkward reality: For some in NATO, it’s better for the Ukrainians to keep fighting, and dying, than to achieve a peace that comes too early or at too high a cost to Kyiv and the rest of Europe.”
-The United States stopped the Russian government on Monday from paying holders of its sovereign debt more than $600 million from reserves held at American banks, in a move meant to ratchet up pressure on Moscow and eat into its holdings of U.S. dollars. Under sanctions put in place after Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, foreign currency reserves held by the Russian central bank at U.S. financial institutions were frozen. But the Treasury Department had been allowing the Russian government to use those funds to make coupon payments on dollar-denominated sovereign debt on a case-by-case basis. On Monday, as the largest of the payments came due, including a $552.4 million principal payment on a maturing bond, the U.S. government decided to cut off Moscow’s access to the frozen funds, according to a U.S. Treasury spokesperson.
-Ukraine plans to model itself after Israel and not Switzerland in the aftermath of the Russian invasion when it comes to issues of national security, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Tuesday. “I think all our people will be our great army. We cannot talk about ‘Switzerland of the future’ — probably, our state will be able to be like this a long time after,” Zelensky said. “But we will definitely become a ‘big Israel’ with its own face.” “We will not be surprised that we will have representatives of the Armed Forces or the National Guard in all institutions, supermarkets, cinemas, there will be people with weapons. I am sure that our security issue will be number one in the next ten years,” he explained.
-The Finnish government will provide the country’s parliament with a review of possible NATO accession by the middle of this month, the country’s Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto said. Moscow’s attack on Ukraine has prompted Finland, which has a common border with Russia, to intensify the discussions on potential benefits of joining the military alliance. Haavisto revealed that Finland’s leaders have already discussed the matter with “almost all” NATO members, and he “almost daily” talks about it with neighboring Sweden which is also considering joining the bloc. In an interview with Reuters, published on Monday, Haavisto said that Finland needs to be prepared for retaliation from Russia and “also listen to how NATO countries would react.”
-NATO plans to deepen its cooperation with partners in Asia as a response to a rising “security challenge” coming from China, which refuses to condemn Russia’s ongoing military operation in Ukraine, the US-led bloc's Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg revealed during a press conference on Tuesday. He announced that the bloc will host foreign ministers from member states as well as Finland, Sweden, Georgia, and the EU. However, the Norwegian-born official also noted that its Asia-Pacific partners – such as Australia, New Zealand, Japan, and South Korea – have been invited as well, stating that the current security crisis has “global implications.” The ministers will discuss new strategic concepts which will account for the military conflict in Ukraine, but will also include for the first time the issue of China’s “growing influence and coercive policies on the global stage which pose a systemic challenge to our security and to our democracies.” “We see that China has been unwilling to condemn Russia’s aggression and has joined Moscow in questioning the right of nations to choose their own path,” said Stoltenberg, urging that democracies must stand up for their values against “authoritarian powers.”
-The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage just crossed 5%, now standing at 5.02%, according to Mortgage News Daily. This is the first time it has crossed that threshold since 2011, save two days in 2018. It stood at 3.38% one year ago today. Mortgage rates, which follow loosely the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury, have been climbing since the start of the year, partially due to the Federal Reserve's policies to curb inflation as well as the global economic turmoil resulting from the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
-The United States has authorized a major war plane sale to Bulgaria worth more than $1.6 billion, agreeing to transfer several F-16s to the Eastern European nation in an effort to modernize its military. The State Department approved the deal on Monday. In addition to eight F-16 fighter jets, it also includes a range of missiles, sensors and replacement parts, coming to a total of $1.67 billion, according to the US Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA).
-Negotiations aimed at reviving the 2015 nuclear deal have been paused because of Washington’s position, an Iranian official has said. The talks in Vienna directly involve Iran, France, Germany, Britain, Russia and China; while the US is indirectly involved.
-The US Bureau of Cyberspace and Digital Policy (CDP) has begun operating, the State Department announced on Monday. The bureau is subdivided into three branches dedicated to “cyberspace security,” “international information and communications policy,” and “digital freedom.” Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary Jennifer Bachus, a career diplomat, will lead the bureau until an ambassador-at-large is confirmed to take her place. Bachus previously served in the Czech Republic, Kosovo, France, Vietnam, and Jamaica. In prepared remarks announcing the launch of the bureau, US State Secretary Antony Blinken said, “Democracies must together answer the question of whether universal rights and democratic values will be at the center of our digital lives.”
-Pyongyang’s nuclear forces would have no other choice, but to respond if the South decides to attack the country, Kim Yo Jong, a key adviser to her brother, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, has said. It was her second warning in three days, following Seoul’s claim that it could carry out a preemptive a strike against its neighbor. “In case South Korea adopts military confrontation against us, our nuclear combat forces are inevitably obliged to carry out its mission,” she said as cited by KCNA state news agency. Seoul would “suffer a terrible disaster unimaginable by far, if its army violates even an inch of our land,” Kim added.
-Volodymyr Zelensky has accused Russia of committing the ‘most terrible war crimes’ since World War Two including cutting out the tongues of civilians. The Ukrainian president made a virtual appearance at the UN Security Council meeting following a visit to Bucha – the site of alleged mass killings where mutilated bodies of civilians have been found lying in the streets or dumped into mass graves. Zelensky said there ‘was not a crime Russia wouldn’t commit’ as he went into graphic detail about the horrors he witnessed with his own eyes. He said some victims of the Bucha massacre were ‘shot on the streets’ while others were ‘thrown into the wells..so they die in suffering’.
-Australia, UK and the US are going to expand their cooperation under the AUKUS trilateral pact to also include hypersonic technologies, the British government said in a statement on Tuesday. China was quick to condemn the announcement, with Beijing’s UN envoy Zhang Jun warning that it could “lead the other parts of the world into a crisis” like the one currently underway in Ukraine. Referring to the Western rejection of Russia’s military operation, Zhang had some advice for the US and its allies, quoting an old Chinese saying: “If you do not like it, do not impose it against the others.”
-On Tuesday it was confirmed that Ukraine has received over a dozen Soviet-designed T-72M tanks from the Czech Republic amid a big push among Western powers to bolster Ukrainian defenses amid the continued Russian war, and as the Russians are beginning to cut off much of the east and south. The Czech initiative marks the first time any external power has provided tanks to Kiev since the start of the Feb.24 invasion. Further, the effort to transfer tanks apparently involved the assistance of the Biden administration, as previously reported by Politico and others. And The Wall Street Journal notes the efforts could ramp up, writing, "In a potentially even more important development, both the Czech Republic and neighboring Slovakia, which shares a border with Ukraine, are considering opening their military industrial installations to repair and refit damaged Ukrainian military equipment."
If the program reaches that point, it would mean NATO countries getting more deeply and logistically involved right on Ukraine's border, potentially coming closer to a direct clash with Russian forces - given the Kremlin early in the invasion warning it would target any external weapons shipments or systems. The WSJ emphasizes this possibility by pointing out that "Russia’s campaign of missile strikes across Ukraine has targeted in particular the country’s defense industry, destroying facilities where such repairs and refitting could take place—something that makes the Czech and Slovak cooperation particularly valuable."
-A damaged Ukraine zoo is to put all animals to sleep after Russian shelling. An MP and founder of an ecopark in Kharkviv says the large animals will be put down as there is no way of rescuing them after damage to the zoo. Oleksandr Feldman said the attraction was destroyed because of Russian shelling. Large animals will be put to sleep because there is no possibility to evacuate or transport them. The zoo's website says it keeps more than 6,000 animals.
-Refusing to condemn Russia’s military operation in Ukraine, India has been managing a multi-aligned foreign policy.
- The top US military officer told lawmakers Tuesday that the world is becoming more unstable and the “potential for significant international conflict is increasing, not decreasing.” Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Gen. Mark Milley and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin appeared before the House Armed Services Committee in their first testimony before Congress since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The two Pentagon leaders said the threats from both Russia and China remain significant, while they defended the US approach to the war and the flow of arms the US is sending to Ukraine.
-Japanese Minister of Defense Nobuo Kishi declared on Monday that his ministry might request a larger budget for the next fiscal year to bolster Tokyo’s ability to stand up to a possible military threat coming from any regional power. The Asian nation’s new desire to level up its military might comes despite Japan’s allegiance to an exclusively defense-oriented policy under the country’s constitution.
-The risk of hitting floating mines in the major Black Sea shipping route is adding to perils for the few merchant ships still sailing in the region, and governments must ensure safe passage to keep supply chains running, maritime officials said according to Reuters. The Black Sea - whose waters are shared by Bulgaria, Romania, Georgia and Turkey, as well as the warring Ukraine and Russia - is key for shipping grain, oil and oil products. Ukraine and Russia have accused each other of laying mines in the Black Sea, and in recent days, Turkish and Romanian military diving teams have defused stray mines around their waters.
-Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Tuesday said Ukraine’s efforts to push back Russian troops from Mariupol were facing difficulties.
-US president Joe Biden called the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, a “war criminal” and said he would call for a war crimes trial as global outrage over claims of civilian killings by Russian soldiers in the Ukraine town of Bucha continued to mount. “We have to gather the information. We have to continue to provide Ukraine with the weapons they need to continue to fight, and we have to get all the detail [to] have a war crimes trial. This guy is brutal and what’s happening in Bucha is outrageous,” he said on Monday.
-One of Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin’s closest allies said claims that Russian forces executed civilians in Bucha were fake products of Ukrainian and Western propaganda aimed at discrediting Russia. “These are fakes that matured in the cynical imagination of Ukrainian propaganda,” Dmitry Medvedev, who served as president from 2008 to 2012 and is now deputy secretary of Russia’s Security Council, said. “They were concocted for vast amounts of money,” Reuters quotes Medevedev saying. Earlier Vyacheslav Volodin, the speaker of the lower house of parliament in Russia said: “The situation in Bucha is a provocation aimed at discrediting Russia. Washington and Brussels are the screenwriters and directors and Kyiv are the actors. There are no facts - just lies.”
-The US will request Russia’s removal from the UN human rights council. During a visit to Romania, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, the US ambassador to the United Nations, called for the international body to suspend Russia.
-Russia is ramping up its campaign against eastern Ukraine, with probable plans to “deploy tens of thousands of soldiers” to that region, the White House said on Monday, as it works will allies to unload fresh sanctions against Moscow. Speaking to reporters, White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan also said that images emerging from Bucha, a town recently recaptured by Ukrainian troops as Russian forces regroup, were tragic and shocking.
-Russia has backed a new, self-proclaimed mayor of Mariupol, who is collaborating with Russian forces, Reuters reported.
-The US treasury department imposed sanctions today on a Russia-based darknet market and a cryptocurrency exchange, reports Reuters.
-Russia’s latest sovereign bond coupon payments have been stopped, a source familiar with the matter and a spokeswoman for the US Treasury told Reuters, putting it closer to a historic default. The latest sovereign bond coupon payments have not received authorisation by the US Treasury to be processed by correspondent bank JPMorgan, the source said.
-Cyber hacking group Anonymous has claimed to have leaked the personal data of 120,000 Russian soldiers fighting in Ukraine. “Personal data of 120,000 Russian soldiers fighting in Ukraine was leaked,” the group said in a statement on Twitter on Monday.
-Denmark and Sweden have decided to expel a combined total of 48 Russian diplomats, becoming the latest EU countries to resort to the measure in the ongoing diplomatic crisis amid Moscow’s offensive in Ukraine. Foreign ministers from the three countries informed the Russian ambassadors of their decisions on Tuesday.
-Italy has expelled 30 Russian diplomats because of security concerns, foreign minister Luigi Di Maio said this morning, according to comments sent to Reuters by a spokesperson.
-Greece has announced it is joining the growing list of European countries who have expelled Russian diplomats. The Greek foreign ministry’s general secretary has informed the Russian ambassador that 12 diplomats have been declared “personae non-gratae” because the host nations says were not acting in accordance with international rules.
-Activity in China's services industry contracted sharply in March, adding to the evidence that the current COVID outbreaks and the zero-COVID-policy-based-lockdowns to control them are dealing a devastating blow to the world's second-largest economy. While (reported) deaths remain negligible, China's new wave of COVID cases has hit a new record high today as CCP reports 20,472 new daily Covid cases for Tuesday, driven by surging infections in Shanghai where local officials are building the world's largest makeshift isolation facility to help contain the outbreak there.
-Various health problems reported by people after receiving one of the COVID-19 vaccine shots are more likely caused by the vaccines than being merely coincidental, according to an analysis of data from the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS). VAERS has been flooded with more than a million reports of various health problems and more than 21,000 death reports since the introduction of the vaccines in late 2020. Some experts and public officials have downplayed the significance of the reports, noting that just because a health problem occurs after getting the shot, it doesn’t mean it was caused by it. A deeper analysis of the data, however, indicates that many of the adverse effects are more than just a coincidence, according to Jessica Rose, a computational biologist who’s been studying the data for at least nine months. “The safety signals being thrown off in VAERS now are off the charts across the board,” she told The Epoch Times.
-Inflation will cost the average US household an extra $5,200, Bloomberg economists said. About $2,200 of that inflation tax will come from pricier food and energy, they added.
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