Russia/Ukraine War Update - April 12th, 2022

 -Russian forces are likely to try to take control of the city of Mariupol before entering the Donetsk region, the Ukrainian military said in its latest operational report. The strategy would be part of an anticipated massive onslaught across eastern Ukraine where Russia is believed to be trying to connect occupied Crimea with Moscow-backed separatist territories Donetsk and Lugansk in Donbas.

-The Russian Ministry of Defense said on Sunday that its forces have carried out missile strikes in Ukraine’s Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv and Kharkiv regions. During the night in the village of Zvonetske -- Dnipropetrovsk region -- high-precision sea-based missiles destroyed the headquarters and base of the Dnipro nationalist battalion, where reinforcements from foreign mercenaries arrived the other day. High-precision air-launched missiles in the area of the settlement of Stara Bohdanivka, Mykolaiv region and at the Chuhuiv military airfield [in Kharkiv region] destroyed launchers of Ukrainian S-300 anti-aircraft missile systems identified by reconnaissance.

-Russia’s defence ministry says it has destroyed Ukrainian ammunition depots in the Khmelnytskyi and Kyiv regions.

-More than 10,000 civilians have died in Mariupol, the city’s mayor has said. Vadym Boychenko said the death toll could surpass 20,000, as weeks of attacks and privation leave bodies “carpeted through the streets”. Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, partly blamed the Ukrainian loss of life on western nations that had not sent weapons to bolster the war effort. “Unfortunately, we are not getting as much as we need to end this war sooner,” he said. “Time is being lost. The lives of Ukrainians are being lost … And this is also the responsibility of those who still keep the weapons Ukraine needs in their armoury.”

-A chemical weapons expert is urging caution over claims that chemical weapons may have been used during an attack on the southern Ukrainian port city of Mariupol, noting that there remains “a paucity of information” about what happened. Dan Kaszeta, from the Royal United Services Institute (Rusi), said it is “legitimately difficult” to assess these situations remotely, particularly when relying on mainly second-hand or third-hand reports instead of evidence from the scene. The symptoms that the Ukrainian soldiers are reportedly showing, such as difficulty breathing, “does not tell us much”, he said.

-A British man fighting in Ukraine has said his unit has no choice but to surrender to Russian forces in the besieged city of Mariupol, his family and friends told the BBC. Aiden Aslin, from Newark, Nottinghamshire, is a marine in the Ukrainian military after moving to Ukraine in 2018. Over the past few weeks, his unit has been defending the southern port city of Mariupol, which has come under heavy bombardment by Russian forces.

-Vladimir Putin has justified Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, saying he had taken “the right decision”. The Russian president is visiting Vostochny Cosmodrome in the Amur Oblast in Russia’s far east. Reuters quotes Putin saying about the country’s military operation in Ukraine: "Its goals are absolutely clear and noble. On the one hand, we are helping and saving people, and on the other, we are simply taking measures to ensure the security of Russia itself. It’s clear that we didn’t have a choice. It was the right decision."

-A Russian citizen in Poland has been arrested and charged with espionage, a spokesperson for the Polish minister coordinator of special services said. The man had been living in Poland for 18 years and carrying out business activity, Reuters reports.

-The Chinese government has greatly "accelerated" its nuclear weapons program due to a revised threat assessment of risk posed by the United States, according to a new in-depth Wall Street Journal report that cites both Chinese and US officials. It follows a Pentagon assessment from last year which laid out Beijing's drive to "modernize, diversify and expand" its nuclear arsenal. The fresh WSJ investigative report appears to confirm the prior US military assessment that China seeks to expanding "land, sea and air-based nuclear delivery platforms" while establishing more necessary infrastructure to support it.

While its nuclear goals predate Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the war which kicked off on Feb.24 is believed to have given greater impetus to the belief China needs a stronger deterrent arsenal. Specifically, the report underscores that "Chinese leaders see a stronger nuclear arsenal as a way to deter the U.S. from getting directly involved in a potential conflict over Taiwan."

-In Germany Bild is reporting that Germany says 15 “Marder” light tanks could be ready to deliver to Ukraine in four months, with 35 delivered by the end of the year.

-A pro-Russian cavalcade in Dublin led by a car with the Z symbol has provoked astonishment and condemnation in Ireland. About 10 cars with Russian and Irish flags drove in a convoy down the M50 motorway last Sunday afternoon in an apparent display of support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The bonnet of the lead vehicle, a green Jeep, bore the ”Z” symbol that Russian forces use in Ukraine. The rally is believed to have been organised through a private Facebook group for Russians living in Ireland. Pro-Russia rallies were held in Germany on the same day, including a motorcade rally in Hanover.

-Russian hackers attempted to launch a cyber-attack on Ukraine’s power grid last week, Ukrainian officials and cybersecurity researchers said. In a statement, the Computer Emergency Response Team of Ukraine (CERT-UA) said the group, dubbed “Sandworm”, deployed destructive and data-wiping malware on computers controlling high-voltage substations in Ukraine, Reuters reports.

-Russian oil and gas exports to the EU remain largely unchanged since only the Baltic States have announced a 100% ban on Russian energy imports. Poland, a major thoroughfare for Russian energy supplies, has also been more proactive than most after it took steps to block Russian coal imports and announced steps to halt Russian oil imports by year-end. Poland--home to the ~1.3mb/d Druzhba pipeline that carries Russian crude to several points in Poland, Germany, and the Czech Republic--directly consumes ~330kb/d of Russian crude and imports ~9.4mt of Russian thermal coal in 2020, accounting for ~5% of Russian exports. The EU currently gets about 40% of its natural gas from Russia, which powers everything from household heating to factory production, and makes up around 25% of the bloc's total energy consumption.

-Matt Smith, the lead oil analyst at Kpler, has told CNBC that since the beginning of March, five cargoes of Russian oil, or about 6 million barrels, have been loaded and are bound for India. In other words, India has imported half as much crude from Russia in one month as it did in an entire year.

- Onshore yuan trading volume declined to $16 billion on Friday, the lowest since March 2020 and down from the daily average of $30 billion last month. The interbank market is dominated by banks buying and selling currencies on behalf of their clients. These transactions are backed by import and export contracts or investment activities. So the dwindling trading reflects a significant slowdown in economic activity. Shanghai accounted for 29% of yuan trading by banks for their clients in February, more than any other region in China.

-The WSJ reports that roughly 100 Russian planes have been stuck in Dubai, effectively prevented from moving due to Western sanctions that bar them from all other airspace. According to WINGX, a website that tracks aerospace, the Russia-UAE connection is 3x busier than pre-pandemic levels during the first 3 weeks of March.

-On Monday Austria's Chancellor Karl Nehammer became the first EU leader to meet face-to-face with Vladimir Putin since the war began on Feb.24. He said that talks were "open and tough" but that it was "not a friendly visit." Following the meeting which was at Putin's Novo-Ogaryovo residence just outside Moscow, the Austrian leader's office issued a statement saying, "This is not a friendly visit. I have just come from Ukraine and have seen with my own eyes the immeasurable suffering caused by the Russian war of aggression." Nehammer is said to have confronted Putin on multiple war crimes and human rights abuses alleged against Russian troops during the 75-minute meeting. The Austrian head of state came under fire for the visit, as going to Moscow to meet Putin face-to-face was hugely controversial in some quarters among EU officials. However, Nehammer described the purpose as to confront the Russian President "with the facts".

-The US State Department has ordered diplomatic workers to vacate a consulate in China, citing a rise in coronavirus infections and new draconian containment measures. All American citizens have also been urged against traveling to the country. An advisory issued on Monday called on all non-emergency workers to leave the US consulate in Shanghai “due to a surge in Covid-19 cases” as well as “the impact of restrictions” imposed by Chinese authorities in response.  

-Current and future sanctions on Russia could spawn one of the worst oil supply shocks in history, OPEC secretary general Mohammed Barkindo warned EU officials on Monday, adding that it would be impossible to replace the volume of oil lost in such an event. Some seven million barrels of Russian oil per day are leaving the world market as a result of sanctions and other restrictions on Russian trading, Barkindo claimed.

-Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has requested tanks, planes and other weapons from South Korea, appealing to lawmakers for help in his country’s war with Russia, hours after Seoul’s defense ministry reiterated its policy against sending lethal aid to Kiev.

-Elite special forces from the UK and the US have been present in Ukraine since the beginning of hostilities with Russia in late February, a source in the French intelligence community reportedly told a Le Figaro reporter, last week. The claim was reported by the newspaper’s senior international correspondent Georges Malbrunot on Saturday, the day when British Prime Minister Boris Johnson made his surprise visit to Kiev. The British leader was reportedly surrounded by guards from the elite SAS force, though this claim was not officially confirmed.

-US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan has claimed that Washington is racing to fulfill Ukraine’s weapons wish list, ensuring that Kiev has all that it needs to repel Russia and support the US goal of weakening and isolating Moscow.

-Telecoms equipment maker Nokia is pulling out of the Russian market. The decision will affect about 2,000 workers.