Russia/Ukraine War Update - April 25th, 2022

*** MILITARY SITUATION ***

Russian offensive operations in eastern Ukraine made minor advances around Severodonetsk on April 24, seizing several small towns and establishing a pontoon bridge across the Krasna River west of Severodonetsk. Russia’s offensive in eastern Ukraine continues to follow the pattern of their operations throughout the war, using small units to conduct dispersed attacks along multiple axes rather than taking the pauses necessary to prepare for decisive operations. Russian forces continued to bombard the remaining Ukrainian defenders in Mariupol’s Azovstal Steel Plant and may be preparing for renewed assaults on the facility, which would likely lead to high Russian casualties. The military situation in southern Ukraine did not change in the last 24 hours.

Russian forces continued to bombard Ukrainian defenders in the Azovstal Steel Plant with artillery and air strikes and may be preparing for renewed assaults on the facility.[1] The deputy commander of the Azov Regiment stated on April 24 that Russian Naval Infantry are preparing to launch an assault on Azovstal, and Ukrainian Presidential Adviser Oleksiy Arestovych similarly stated Russian forces are concentrating around Azovstal for an assault.[2] ISW cannot independently confirm Russian preparations for renewed assaults against Azovstal, which would likely sustain high casualties. Russian commanders likely still seek to starve out the remaining Ukrainian defenders but may be compelled to launch a hasty assault on the facility to meet a Kremlin-imposed deadline to fully clear Mariupol. Pro-Russian telegram channels released footage of Pacific Fleet Naval Infantry troops and armor reportedly leaving Mariupol to “go further for new victories,” though ISW cannot confirm details on the specific composition and destination of Russian forces departing Mariupol.

*** ECONOMIC & POLITICAL ***

-Vladimir Putin is no longer open to diplomacy to end the war in Ukraine, which suggests he's focusing on a 'land-grab' strategy instead, according to the Financial Times, citing three people briefed on conversations with the Russian President. The Russian president was said to have been seriously considering a peace deal in the wake of several battlefield setbacks last month.

-A new report from the Wall Street Journal reveals that US officials have been holding off on levying sanctions against Alina Kabaeva, a former Russia Olympic gymnast believed to be Vladimir Putin’s mistress. Last month, the US targeted Putin’s daughters, Maria Vorontsova and Katerina Tikhonova, along with his former wife, Lyudmila Shkrebneva, but Kabaeva – and at least three of her children that are believed to be Putin’s – was left out.

-US defense secretary Lloyd Austin and secretary of state Antony Blinken are currently in talks with Volodymyr Zelensky, an advisor told local Ukrainian news outlets. Zelensky is expected to use the meeting to appeal for more US military aid. Volodymyr Zelenskiy has made it plain that’s he’s expecting concrete contributions following his much-trailed meeting later today with the US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, and the US defence secretary, Lloyd Austin.

-Berlin is planning to supply upgraded 4×4 vehicles, armored trucks, tactical buses, and nearly 100 HX81 heavy tractor-trailer systems to Ukraine as the Russian offensive in the eastern Donbas region escalates. Citing a report from Bild, Militarnyi reported that Germany agreed to ramp up the supply of weapons and military vehicles to Kyiv, including HX 81 tractors. The vehicle is based on an 8×8 MAN HX-series chassis. Germany’s new tractor-trailer systems will be used for transporting tracked and wheeled vehicles, containers and heavy equipment. Two cable winches with a pulling force up to 20 tonnes each enable loading and unloading of defective equipment. A self-recovery winch with a traction force of eight tonnes is mounted to the front of the vehicle. Designed for maximum mobility, the tractor-trailer system will also be able to operate for long distances in areas with poor infrastructure.

-Bulgaria has been “secretly supplying ammo to Ukraine via a ‘third country’” as a way to “prevent disintegration” of the coalition government in the country, which includes the pro-Russian Socialist party.

-Ukraine will receive a new shipment of France’s weapons, including modern self-propelled howitzers, according to French President Emmanuel Macron. Emmanuel Macron on Friday said in an interview to Ouest-France that the country will send 155mm Caesar self-propelled artillery systems to Ukraine. Asked about critics deploring the weaknesses in arms deliveries by Germany and France, the Head of State replied that everyone takes responsibility for their political balances, and I do not interfere in political life from each other.

-Russian troops appear to use its helicopter-type unmanned aerial systems in an effort to draw out Ukrainian air defenses. Ukrainian troops claimed Wednesday that they shot down a Russian heavy rotary-wing drone by the British-made Starstreak missile system. Photos of the wreckage of this unmanned aerial system were blasted across social media. The footage showed that the drone was completely disintegrated but it is possible to identify the rotor and tail boom as well as the label that matches the Russian drone target developed by the JSC CSTS Dinamika, part of Technodinamika Group. Apparently, the Russian military is now using these systems to identify the positions of the Ukrainian air defense forces.

-The Army is working for several years to paint all of its ground combat vehicles in the shade of woodland green as part of the readiness plan to counter the increasing Russian ground force threat. More than a few tanks, armored vehicles and other Army tactical equipment has been spotted at various locations across Europe recently, but what stands out to many is their color. No longer are people witnessing the desert tan color they’ve grown accustomed to for the past 20 plus years. Instead, it’s back to the days of old with a fresh coat of olive drab green — or OD green — and a small team at Logistics Readiness Center Benelux is helping to make that happen.

-Beyond the destruction that is happening in Ukraine because of Russia’s invasion, the conflict could have a major impact on climate change if Russian wildfires go untethered. Experts have voiced concerns that Russia will allow wildfires – which are a major source of carbon emissions – to grow as it dedicates its military aircraft to the invasion over fighting the fires. “Either there will be more fires… or these aircraft and personnel will be taken away from the western front and brought to Siberia,” Jessica McCarty, a climate research at Miami University in Ohio, told Axios.

[Apparently, when considering allocating resources to the war effort, the Russian's have decided that the climate will just have to suffer. No one will care about Russian wildfires after the first tactical nuke goes off.]

-The United States has warned the Solomon Islands’ leadership that it would “respond accordingly” if a military installation on the Pacific Islands nation is allowed under the terms of the Solomon Islands-China security pact. The White House stated Friday that a high-level U.S. delegation has met with the Solomon Islands’ leadership in Honiara and raised concerns about the purpose and transparency of the agreement. According to its statement, Solomon Islands’ officials have clarified that the security deal was solely for domestic applications, but the U.S. delegation claimed that it posed “potential regional security implications” for Washington and its allies. “If steps are taken to establish a de facto permanent military presence, power-projection capabilities, or a military installation, the delegation noted that the United States would then have significant concerns and respond significantly,” it stated. The White House did not specify how the United States would respond.

-German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is under continued pressure to "do more" for the Ukrainians, particularly in the area of sending heavier weaponry to Kiev, with Bloomberg reporting at the close of this week that a "German arms manufacturer has asked the government to approve the export of 100 Marder tanks to Ukraine, Welt am Sonntag reports, without saying where it got the information." The arms maker is saying the tanks are "quickly available" and that the first wave delivery could be transferred to Ukraine "within a few weeks" - pending approval of the Scholz government. However, unlike the British and US governments, who haven't been shy about sending and pledging unprecedented military aid to the Ukrainians, Scholz has loathe to do anything seen as escalatory by Moscow. He's expected to reject the appeal by the arms maker. "NATO must avoid a direct military confrontation with Russia that could lead to a third world war," Chancellor Scholz was cited as saying in a new interview Der Spiegel when asked why Germany hasn't sent heavy weapons.

-The US is seeking domination over the Mediterranean Sea as tensions with Moscow mount. NATO and Russia have built-up their forces in the region to the most significant level in a generation. Thibault Lavernhe, regional communication officer of the French army in the Mediterranean, said, "Ukraine has changed things. The Americans are back. This hasn’t been the case since the Cold War." He added, "Russia has doubled, if not tripled, its military capacity in the area." The French military official estimates Russia has 20 ships in the Mediterranean. Lavernhe says the US has moved warships from the Atlantic Ocean to double its presence in the sea.

-Igor Zhovkva, a top diplomatic adviser to Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky, criticized United Nation secretary-general Antonio Guterres’ upcoming meeting with Vladimir Putin and Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavror, saying that Guterres does “not really” have the authority to speak on behalf of Ukraine.

-The FBI's Cyber Division published a notice this past week warning about increased cyber-attack threats on agricultural cooperatives, which comes at a time when a curious string of fires and explosions damage major food processing plants across the country. "Ransomware actors may be more likely to attack agricultural cooperatives during critical planting and harvest seasons, disrupting operations, causing financial loss, and negatively impacting the food supply chain," the notice read, adding 2021 and early 2022 ransomware attacks on farming co-ops could affect the current planting season "by disrupting the supply of seeds and fertilizer."The agency warned, "A significant disruption of grain production could impact the entire food chain, since grain is not only consumed by humans but also used for animal feed ... In addition, a significant disruption of grain and corn production could impact commodities trading and stocks. " The FBI's warning comes as "nearly two dozen food processing facilities across Canada and the US" have experienced a "string of fires, plane crashes and explosions," according to The Western Standard.

-The world's biggest palm oil producer, Indonesia, is the latest country to embrace protectionist measures to mitigate domestic food shortages, according to Bloomberg. President Joko Widodo on Friday announced the export ban of all cooking oil and palm oil products would begin on April 28. Widodo said during a television broadcast that the measures aimed to ensure domestic markets had ample cooking oil supplies following a dramatic increase in prices. The Ukraine conflict has roiled the global edible oil market. The Black Sea region accounts for 76% of world sunoil exports. Commercial shipments in the region have been disrupted due mainly by insurers for vessels charging very high war premiums that make cargo nearly impossible in insure. Indonesia's move adds to the growing food protectionism as several other countries, including Argentina, have raised export taxes on edible oils. Meanwhile, Moldova, Hungary, and Serbia have banned some grain exports.

-If record-high food prices weren't enough. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has choked off the world of sunflower oil supply, forcing the largest supermarket in the UK to begin rationing. The Guardian reports that Tesco, with more than 4,000 retail stores, placed buying limits of three cooking oil bottles per customer. It follows Waitrose and Morrisons, other supermarket chains that set limits of just two per customer. The UK's biggest retailer is experiencing sourcing issues with cooking oil, especially sunflower oil, which much of it comes from Ukraine. As retailers panic about sourcing edible oils, it has driven retail cooking oil prices up an average of 20% over the last year. Last week, British Retail Consortium's Tom Holder told the BBC that rationing was temporary "to ensure availability for everyone." He said supermarkets are "working with suppliers to ramp up production of alternative cooking oils, to minimize the impact on consumers."

-Following up on earlier pronouncements that Russia will "liberate" the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, Russia's military now says it aims to seize the whole of the south as well. The New York Times has reported the Friday statement of a Russian senior military commander, Gen. Rustam Minnekayev, as saying the aim is to take "full control of the Donbas and southern Ukraine." This was described as part of this newly launched "second phase" of Russia's operation, which has lately appeared focused on completely securing the key southeast port city of Mariupol, which President Putin on Thursday had declared 'liberated' - though telling his defense minister that there's no need to infiltrate the cavernous Azovstal steel plant, where the last Ukrainian fighters remain, but to seal it off instead. The Russian commander in the Friday statements confirmed that the military plans to establish a land corridor linking up Crimea and the Donbas. But the fight for Ukraine's south figures heavily into this, according to Gen. Minnekayev:

    And in a line that will be concerning to Chișinău, he is also reported to have said that control of Ukraine’s south will give Russia another gateway to Moldova’s breakaway region of Transnistria.

“Control over the south of Ukraine is another way to Transnistria, where there is also evidence that the Russian-speaking population is being oppressed,” Tass quoted Minnekayev as saying at a meeting in Russia’s central Sverdlovsk region. This puts Odesa in the crosshairs, which is home to Ukraine's navy, and which has so far largely escaped direct heavy attack.

-A full EU ban on Russian crude oil and gas imports could have unintended economic consequences for the United States and its Western allies, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told reporters in Washington on Thursday. The Treasury Secretary added that such a ban could do more harm than good. Europe does need to reduce its dependence on Russian oil and gas, Yellen said, "but we need to be careful when we think about a complete European ban on, say, oil imports."

-The bodies of two Russian oligarchs were found dead alongside their wives and children just one day apart, according to a handful of media reports. The first was Vladislav Avayev, formerly vice president of Gazprombank. He was found killed by a gunshot wound in his Moscow apartment on Monday, Russia's state-run Tass news agency reported. Police are looking into a theory that Avayev shot his wife and children, and then himself.  Although the names of the victims were not included in a public statement from the Russian government, Tass said an unnamed source later confirmed their identities. Investigators said in their statement that they believe Avayev shot his wife and daughter, and then himself.

The second oligarch was found killed in Spain, some 2,000 miles away. His name was Sergei Protosenya and he was found stabbed to death with his wife and daughter. Local media outlets claimed he had been found with a bloodied knife and axe by his side. Prior to his death, Protosenya had been the vice president and chief accountant of Novatek, a major gas company with close ties to Gazprombank. At the time of their killings, Protosenya, his wife and their daughter were staying at a rented luxury villa in Lloret de Mar, a coastal Catalan town, for the Easter period. Protosenya left no suicide note, and there were no bloodstains on his body. At the time of the killings, he had a personal fortune of more than $433 million, according to Telecinco, Russian authorities said. The family's villa, situated on Spain's Costa Brava, is thought to be the family's second home alongside their residence in France.

-The Russian army is planning to establish full control over the Donbas and Southern Ukraine and to ensure a land corridor to the Crimea, according to Rustam Minnekaev, deputy commander of the Central Military District. He also warned taking back control over Southern Ukraine will provide Russian troops with another outlet to Moldova's pro-Russian breakaway region of Transdniestria, which borders Ukraine. Kyiv fears this could be used as a launching pad for new attacks.