*** MILITARY SITUATION ***
Russia continued offensive operations in eastern Ukraine on a limited basis as it worked to reconstitute forces withdrawn from the Battle of Kyiv and to establish necessary logistical bases for increased offensive operations in the Donbas area. Russian forces withdrawn from the Kyiv region have not yet been reintroduced into Ukraine to fight. The Russian military has continued to conduct small-scale limited offensive operations on the Izyum and Severodonetsk axes and has not yet gone over to a better-resourced or broader offensive campaign. The Battle of Mariupol continues even as Ukrainian officials accuse Russia of using chemical weapons on Mariupol’s defenders.
The Russian military continues efforts to reconstitute forces damaged in the failed attack on Kyiv in the Belgorod and Voronezh areas but has not yet sent those forces back into Ukraine to resume fighting. Ukrainian reports suggest that morale and will to fight remain low in some Russian units and areas. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on April 12 that elements of the Russian 41st Combined Arms Army and the 90th Tank Division are relocating to Belgorod and Voronezh Oblasts.[1]
-The Russian military continues offensive operations in Donbas and is not in a pure reconstitution phase. It has not undertaken an across-the-board operational pause while waiting for reinforcements to arrive. In part, as a result, it has made limited gains while continuing to sustain significant losses.
-Mariupol has not yet fallen.
-The war in Ukraine appears to be shifting eastward to an area in the Donbass around the city of Krematorsk. This is where upwards of 60,000 Ukrainian combat troops are “dug-in” and prepared to take on the advancing Russian army.
*** ECONOMIC & POLITICAL ***
-Six Chinese military aircraft transited the airspace of Turkey and Bulgaria, both of which are NATO members, on April 11 to deliver missiles to Serbia, a key ally of Vladimir Putin’s regime in Russia. The move is likely to be regarded as a display of force, as Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic previously had said that NATO refused to let the shipments of Chinese weapons cross through the airspace of its member nations. The Y-20 cargo planes delivered the anti-aircraft weapons systems to Serbia via the civilian Nikola Tesla airport in Belgrade.
The FK-3, which is the export version of China’s domestic HQ-22, is a ground-to-air missile system that is frequently compared to the United States’ Patriot missile system. It can reach speeds of about six times that of sound (Mach 6) and has a range of about 93 miles. One system includes 12 missiles dispersed among three launch vehicles and a separate radar vehicle.
Notably, the Chinese aircraft flew together in mass formation rather than one at a time, and used state-of-the-art MLat (multilateration) tracking systems instead of the more traditional radar. Open-source intelligence analysts also noted that at least some of the aircraft had removed the coverings for their flare and chaff countermeasures—defensive systems to help evade missile attacks—possibly signaling that the Chinese aircraft either anticipated meeting some resistance or wanted to be seen as anticipating resistance. The shipment will allow Serbia to become the first user of Chinese missiles in Europe, and will augment an already expanding arsenal of Chinese and Russian drones, tanks, and warplanes purchased by the nation in recent years.
-Slovak Prime Minister Eduard Heger said Monday that Slovakia is in talks with its allies about an arrangement to send Soviet-designed MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine as NATO is working to send heavier equipment to be used in the war against Russia. Last week, Slovakia announced that it sent a Soviet-designed S-300 missile defense system to Ukraine. In exchange, the US is deploying a Patriot missile system to Slovakia. The Slovak government is looking for a similar deal when it comes to the MiGs, and Heger said Slovakia wants to phase out the Soviet weapons. Heger said Slovakia “cannot sustain” Soviet equipment without a “relationship” with Moscow. “This is equipment that we want to finish anyway because we’re waiting for the F-16s,” he said. In 2018, Slovakia signed a deal to purchase US-made F-16 fighter jets, but they aren’t expected to be delivered until 2024.
-Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has not let up on his criticism of NATO and told 60 Minutes in an interview that aired Sunday that he is “no longer interested” in the military alliance’s diplomacy. “When you’re working in diplomacy, there are no results. All of this is very bureaucratic,” Zelensky said when asked about recent harsh comments about NATO. “That’s why the way I am talking to them is absolutely justified. I don’t have any more lives to give. I don’t have any more emotions. I’m no longer interested in their diplomacy that leads to the destruction of my country.” Since Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, Zelensky has been pleading with the US and NATO to enforce a no-fly zone over Ukraine, which would mean the Western powers entering a direct conflict with Russia. For not going to war with Russia, Zelensky has slammed NATO as being “weak” and “afraid” of Moscow. Last month, Biden accused Putin of being a "war criminal," but this is the first time he has described the situation as a "genocide" – a term Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has used to describe the situation.
-Following Russian President Putin's comments that peace talks with Ukraine are at a "dead end," and denied accusations being responsible for attacks in Mariupol and Bucha, US President Biden took to the stage this afternoon - to explain how he will fix the problem of "Putin's Price Hike" (which is still not trending). However, it appears the 79 year old veered off script once again with the following comment... "Your family budget, your ability to fill up your tank, none of it should hinge on whether a dictator declares war and commits genocide half a world away." President Biden calls the war in Ukraine "genocide." "Your ability to fill up your tank, none of it, should hinge on whether a dictator declares war and commits genocide a half a world away."
-US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin hosted his Indian counterpart, Rajnath Singh, on Monday, calling for closer military ties between the countries and warning of security threats posed by China and Russia. “We’re meeting at a critical moment in the US-India defense partnership,” Austin told Singh as Monday’s talks began. He added that Washington and New Delhi both believe in a “free and open Indo-Pacific” underpinned by respect for national sovereignty and the rule of law, but “we’re facing urgent and mounting challenges to this shared vision.” Beijing is undermining security in the region by building “dual-use infrastructure” along its border with India and making unlawful territorial claims in the South China Sea, Austin said. “The United States stands with India in defending their sovereign interests,” he pledged.
-Germany wanted to invite Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi as a guest to a G7 summit that it will host in June, but may reconsider due to New Delhi’s refusal to condemn Russia for its attack on Ukraine, Bloomberg reported on Tuesday.
-A United States aircraft carrier strike group has been deployed off the coast of Korea, and is reportedly set to take part in naval drills. It comes as US officials voice concerns that Pyongyang could conduct a fresh nuclear test. The USS Abraham Lincoln strike group is now operating near the Sea of Japan – also known as the East Sea – an unnamed US government figure told Reuters on Monday, following reports in South Korean media that the ships had been deployed to international waters in the region in an “apparent show of force.” The vessels will meet up with the Japanese navy for military exercises in the coming days.
-Vladimir Putin launched a mass purge of 150 security officials last night as he prepared for a final military offensive in Ukraine. The officers from the FSB security service – successor to the KGB – have been removed from their jobs and some have also been arrested. The desperate Russian president is hunting for traitors after Western intelligence agents obtained his country’s battle plans before the invasion. He is also looking for others to blame after his military push fell short of a quick victory. It emerged last night that Colonel General Sergei Beseda, head of the FSB’s foreign intelligence unit, has been moved to Moscow’s high-security Lefortovo prison after being on house arrest. The probe is being led by Russia’s military counter-intelligence service as Putin seeks to block the West’s information pipeline. Other FSB officials have also been detained for supposedly ‘reporting false information to the Kremlin about the real situation in Ukraine before the invasion’, the investigative website Bellingcat reported.
-The US cannot confirm reports of Russian use of chemical weapons in the besieged Ukrainian city of Mariupol, a senior defence official said.
-The Pentagon now says Russia is in the midst of a major jamming operation attempt of Ukraine's access to GPS signals, which if successful would have a huge impact on Ukraine's ability to navigate the battlefield and operate advanced aerial systems such as drones. What's further is that these latest efforts, which follow widespread reports that Russia jammed GPS in Ukraine just ahead of the Feb.24 invasion, appear aimed at disrupting new US-supplied equipment, in particular small advanced drones.
In a Monday NBC interview, Gen. David Thompson of the US Space Force described that Russia is taking direct aim at communications infrastructure provided by the US: "Russia is interfering with the US-provided GPS signals in Ukraine," he said. NBC show narrator, Pentagon correspondent Tom Costello explained, "While Russia and China have their own GPS satellites, most of the world relies on the GPS provided by the US for free." The report further said, "Russia has also reportedly jammed the GPS systems used by civilian aircraft along its borders with Finland." Space Force's Gen. Thompson described that the Russians are making a "clear statement to us about their intention to threaten our capabilities" - including the scenario that eventually the Kremlin could take direct action against US GPS satellites in space.
-Talks with Ukraine have reached "a dead end," Russian President Vladimir Putin said in fresh Tuesday remarks. "We will not stop military operations in Ukraine until they succeed." He explained that Ukraine has "deviated" from agreements and any possible prior progress reached during the Istanbul meetings, according to state-run RIA. The strong remarks aimed at both Kiev and the West were given during a joint presser with his Belarusian counterpart Alexander Lukashenko. He further hailed that the military operations is still going "according to plan," Bloomberg reports, however while admitting to the domestic population that "Russian logistics and payment systems remain a weakness and the long-term impact of western measures could be more painful." But he also said the county has withstood the economic "blitzkrieg" from the West.
-Ukraine’s ambassador to the Holy See has spoken out against the Vatican’s plans for the Stations of the Cross procession led by Pope Francis on Good Friday. The Vatican said yesterday that for part of the route, the cross will be carried by a Ukrainian and a Russian family. The ambassador, Andrii Yurash, wrote on Twitter that there is “a general worry in Ukraine and other communities” about the plan to put Ukrainian and Russian families together and that he is working to explain “the possible consequences” of it.
-French President Emmanuel Macron said he would not come to Kiev in order to “just make a diplomatic visit” or follow the “fashion” set up by other European politicians. “I am ready to do anything, to go to Kiev or to another Ukrainian city. But, I want it to be useful,” Macron told BFM TV late on Monday.
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