Russia/Ukraine War Update - April 21st, 2022

*** MILITARY SITUATION ***

Russian forces made minor advances in the ongoing offensive in eastern Ukraine on April 19, seizing several small towns and advancing into the key frontline towns of Rubizhne and Popasna. Russian forces continued major assaults with heavy air and artillery support but are continuing to build the logistics and command-and-control capabilities necessary for a larger offensive. Russian forces have not achieved any major breakthroughs, nor have they demonstrated any new capability to conduct multiple successful, simultaneous advances. Russian forces additionally made grinding progress against remaining Ukrainian defenders in Mariupol’s Azovstal Steel Works and announced plans for a May 9 Victory Day parade in the city – indicating Russian forces will declare victory in Mariupol by that date at the latest.

-The Russian ministry of defence says its forces hit 1,053 Ukrainian military facilities overnight, destroying 106 firing positions.

-US defense officials told CNN on Wednesday that Russia has made no significant territorial gains in Donbas after a major renewed offensive kicked off there at the start of this week, marking a 'new phase' in the war. But given the intensely competing narratives and information warfare, including all that goes along with the 'fog of war', such assessments should be taken with a grain of salt. "The US has observed some new attacks by Russian forces, which appear to be probing attacks to test Ukrainian defenses, one of the officials said," the fresh report continues. "However, the frontlines remain static with no major territory changing hands as of yet."

*** ECONOMIC & POLITICAL ***

-The US government is scrambling to trace large quantities of “lethal aid” transferred to Ukraine’s armed forces in recent months, officials have allegedly leaked to CNN, noting that intelligence agencies have “almost zero” ability to follow the shipments to their final end-users. Though weapons shipped to Ukraine account for the “largest recent supply to a partner country in a conflict,” the White House is increasingly concerned the aid “may wind up in the hands of other militaries and militias that the US did not intend to arm,” a senior defense official told CNN on Tuesday.

-US President Joe Biden admitted on Tuesday that Covid-19 pandemic lockdowns were the primary cause of runaway inflation, but still blamed his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, for high gas prices at home. Biden’s domestic popularity has suffered amid the worst inflation since 1981. The White House has tried to blame the inflation on Russia’s military operation in Ukraine for the past six weeks, insisting on the phrase “Putin price hike” to describe the skyrocketing prices at the pump. Biden dutifully repeated the talking point in a speech in New Hampshire on Tuesday, but then “demoted” Russia as the principal culprit.

-Relations between the US and Saudi Arabia that go back to 1945 have never been this bad, according to a report published Wednesday in the Wall Street Journal’s print edition. Insiders in Washington and Riyadh that spoke with the paper blamed the situation on a personal rift between US President Joe Biden and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Both the White House and the Kingdom officially denied any trouble, however. According to the outlet, the crown prince has sought recognition from Washington as the incoming head of state, which would give him immunity from prosecution for the 2018 killing of dissident Jamal Khashoggi. The Biden White House has refused, bringing up Khashoggi in the first meeting with national security adviser Jake Sullivan and treating with the prince – known by his initials MBS – in his official capacity as Saudi Arabia’s defense minister.

-Military cybersecurity games, dubbed Locked Shields, kicked off in Tallinn, Estonia on Tuesday. The annual exercise is staged by NATO’s Cooperative Cyber Defence Centre of Excellence (CCDCOE), a cyber organization accredited by the US-led military bloc.

-White House official Matt Miller said the US is planning multiple weapons packages for Ukraine in the coming weeks. President Joe Biden has already authorized the transfer of over $3 billion in arms to Kiev amid a war which American officials believe will last for years. Speaking with MSNBC on Tuesday, Miller said, “The question about another package is really the easiest one you could ask me. The answer is yes, of course, we are always preparing the next package of security assistance to get into Ukraine.” Several top US officials have said the war will drag on for years. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs General Mark Milley said, “I do think this is a very protracted conflict, and I think it’s measured in years. I don’t know about decade, but at least years for sure.” Several current and former high-level US officials believe Russia will face a bloody and costly insurgency fueled by American weapons in Ukraine. In January, James Stavridis, a retired four-star Navy admiral who was the supreme allied commander for NATO, said, “Putin should realize that after fighting insurgencies ourselves for two decades, we know how to arm, train and energize them.”

-Germany’s foreign minister has insisted there is “no taboo” in Berlin over sending armoured vehicles to Ukraine, as her government defends itself against criticism over its delay in authorising the delivery of heavy weapons.

-Finance ministers from the UK, US, Canada and France walked out of Wednesday’s G20 meeting as Russian representatives spoke, the chancellor Rishi Sunak said.

-White House press secretary Jen Psaki has said the US is “working around the clock to provide security assistance to Ukraine”.

-In a new 'message' aimed at the West, Russia on Wednesday test launched a new intercontinental ballistic missile, the Sarmat, according to Interfax citing the Russian defense ministry. President Vladimir Putin said in a statement which accompanied the announcement that the new Sarmat missile will provide "food for thought for those who try to threaten Russia." He congratulated the armed forces on the successful test launch. According to another translation, he said that the Sarmat will "make the madmen who attempt to threaten Russia think." "Sarmat is the most powerful missile with the biggest hitting range in the world. It will significantly strengthen the combat power of the Russian strategic nuclear armed forces," the Russian Defense Ministry said. The test took place in Russia's far north, reportedly at the Plesetsk spaceport which lies about 800 km north of Moscow. According to a state media description, "The missile was developed as a replacement for the ICBM R-36M2 (NATO Reporting Name SS-18 Satan). It is expected to be effective in destroying enemy strategic targets around the globe with kinetic impact energy and without the use of the nuclear warhead."

-China has remained undeterred by Washington threats over its deepening ties and closer cooperation with Russia even as the Kremlin commits to military takeover of the Donbas region of Ukraine. On Wednesday Beijing affirmed it will "continue strengthening strategic ties with Russia," according to a top diplomat. This even as Washington has ramped up the rhetoric seeking to highlight horrific war crimes alleged in places like Bucha, or now Mariupol. While recently the Biden administration admitted it "has not seen" China providing Russia with military equipment, as some prior admin officials alleged was likely happening, the accusation and suspicion has lingered over Beijing, still under Western pressure to come out definitively against the Russian invasion (though it remains that Beijing officials have resisted even using the word "invasion" to describe the conflict). "No matter how the international landscape may change, China will continue to strengthen strategic coordination with Russia for win-win cooperation, jointly safeguard the common interests of the two countries and promote the building of a new type of international relations and a community with a shared future for mankind,” Vice Foreign Minister Le Yucheng said in a late Tuesday statement.

-Russia’s nuclear forces will start taking delivery of the new Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile later this year once testing is complete, the country’s news agency Tass said on Wednesday, according to Reuters.

-Russian emergencies ministry site publishes "Recommendations in case of a retaliatory nuclear strike by NATO countries."
   
-Because the US military is not on the ground, the US and NATO are heavily reliant on information provided by Ukraine’s government. Privately, officials recognize that Ukraine has an incentive to give only information that will bolster their case for more aid, more arms and more diplomatic assistance. “It’s a war — everything they do and say publicly is designed to help them win the war. Every public statement is an information operation, every interview, every Zelensky appearance broadcast is an information operation,” said another source familiar with western intelligence.

-Czech defence companies will repair Ukrainian tanks and other military vehicles that have been damaged in fighting or need servicing after long-term storage, the Czech Defence Ministry said on Tuesday. The Czech Republic has been among the most active countries in supporting the Ukrainian military with donations and sales of weapons and ammunition, including shipments of Soviet-era tanks, multiple rocket launchers, howitzers, infantry fighting vehicles and anti-aircraft weapons.

-For the first time since the Russian invasion began, the Pentagon on Tuesday issued cryptic confirmation that Ukraine has received fighter planes. In a press briefing spokesman John Kirby was careful to say it wasn't the Untied States who sent them, however. He also didn't specify what types of aircraft were sent, only that Ukrainian forces "right now have available to them more fixed-wing fighter aircraft than they did two weeks ago." Kirby described, "Without getting into what other nations are providing, they (Ukrainian forces) have received additional platforms and parts to be able to increase their fleet size." For the first time since the Russian invasion began, the Pentagon on Tuesday issued cryptic confirmation that Ukraine has received fighter planes. In a press briefing spokesman John Kirby was careful to say it wasn't the Untied States who sent them, however. He also didn't specify what types of aircraft were sent, only that Ukrainian forces "right now have available to them more fixed-wing fighter aircraft than they did two weeks ago." Kirby described, "Without getting into what other nations are providing, they (Ukrainian forces) have received additional platforms and parts to be able to increase their fleet size." Slovakia is a likely possibility after it sent an S-300 system and missiles to Ukraine, with the US agreeing to resupply the country with Patriots. Slovakia followed by offering to send MiG jets in a similar set-up based on the US sending upgraded American planes to replenish.

-A Ukrainian commander from the 36th separate marine brigade in the besieged city of Mariupol has made an urgent plea in a video shared on his Facebook page, saying that his forces were probably facing their “last days, if not hours”. Serhiy Volyna said his troops were outnumbered 10 to one and appealed to world leaders to help 500 wounded soldiers and hundreds of civilians trapped in the city.

-Finland’s parliament has opened the debate on whether to seek Nato membership after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine led to a surge in political and public support for joining the military alliance, AFP reports.

-Norway will donate 100 mistral air defence missiles to Ukraine, its defence ministry said in a statement.

-Germany’s foreign minister, Annalena Baerbock, said Berlin has chosen not to reveal details about the weapons it has sent to Ukraine. Speaking at a news conference in Riga today, Baerbock said: We have delivered anti-tank missiles, Stingers and other things that we have never spoken about publicly so these deliveries could happen quickly. She was asked whether Berlin would be sending its Panzerhaubitze 2000 artillery system – which some experts say Ukraine needs to mount a counterattack against Russian forces in the Donbas region, Reuters reports. In response, Baerbock said Germany would train Ukrainian soldiers on using and maintaining advanced weapons systems which it has received from other allied countries. If partners deliver artillery that we can no longer deliver, we will help with training and maintenance.

-About one-third of Ukraine's farmlands may not be harvested or cultivated this year as Russia begins the second phase of the conflict in the war-torn country. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) noted in a report on Tuesday that the "vast destruction of crops and infrastructure due to the war jeopardizes food production." FAO estimates approximately 33% of the crops and agricultural land may not be harvested because of the escalating war. In March, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy urged farmers to sow as many fields as possible to protect the food supply, but that appears to be a challenging task considering the displacement of people (labor shortage), bombed-out fields, severely damaged infrastructure, and shortage of everything (diesel, seeds, & fertilizer). Ukraine is considered the world's second-biggest shipper of grains and the biggest exporter of sunflower oil.

-Farmers in China, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia, and Vietnam — the largest rice-producing countries could experience reduced output due to soaring fertilizer prices. The International Rice Research Institute warns that harvests could plunge as much as 10% in the next season, equating to about 36 million tons of rice, or enough food to feed a half billion people, according to Bloomberg. Chemical fertilizers, such as nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium, are the most applied nutrients for high-yielding rice cultivation. Farmers have been particularly vulnerable to soaring fertilizer prices as some have reduced the amount of nutrients to save costs. This threatens future harvests as production declines could stoke food inflation.

-Since the beginning of the war, the number of gas stations in Ukraine has decreased three times, and private fuel consumption has decreased by about the same amount, said Sergey Kuyun, director of the A-95 consulting group. “According to our estimates, a third of the total number of gas stations is operating, this is about 2.5 thousand stations, before the war there were 7.5 thousand. Of course, the main reason is the lack of fuel. Consumption has also decreased three times compared to the pre-war level,” he said at a closed briefing at the Media Center in Lviv on Monday. At the same time, Kuyun noted that traders or network owners are forced to provide their most strategic and powerful facilities, located mainly in regional centers or on main routes, while peripheral stations are forced to stand idle, although there are also a lot of consumers there. According to him, the shortage of fuel became especially aggravated after the shutdown of the Kremenchug Oil Refinery as a result of a missile attack by Russian invaders. “Many companies, especially in central, eastern and southern Ukraine, have lost their main source of supply for themselves. The only way out for them is to independently import through the western border. This is mainly about the fact that small regional companies go abroad with fuel trucks and bring fuel,” he explained.