Russia/Ukraine War Update - April 27th, 2022

*** MILITARY SITUATION ***

RusUkrainian Theater of War, Day 55-57

The past 72 hrs. have seen the Kremlin declare “victory” in Mariupol, with Ukrainian resistance continuing in the Azovstal area. Russia keeps up pressure in the Severodonetsk Salient with only marginal gains

Russian forces have adopted a sounder pattern of operational movement in eastern Ukraine, at least along the line from Izyum to Rubizhne. Russian troops are pushing down multiple roughly parallel roads within supporting distance of one another, allowing them to bring more combat power to bear than their previous practice had supported. Russian troops on this line are making better progress than any other Russian advances in this phase of the war. They are pushing from Izyum southwest toward Barvinkove and southeast toward Slovyansk. They are also pushing several columns west and south of Rubizhne, likely intending to encircle it and complete its capture. The Russian advances even in this area are proceeding methodically rather than rapidly, however, and it is not clear how far they will be able to drive or whether they will be able to encircle Ukrainian forces in large numbers.

Russian forces on the Izyum axis likely benefit from the absence of prepared Ukrainian defensive positions against attacks from the Kharkiv direction toward Donbas. Ukraine has prepared to defend the line of contact with Russian-occupied Donbas since 2014, and Russian troops continue to struggle to penetrate those prepared defenses—as shown by repeated Russian efforts to take Avdiivka, just north of Donetsk City, or to advance through Popasna, just beyond the original line of contact.

Russian troops continued to attack Ukrainian defenders in Mariupol, including in the Azovstal Plant, despite Russian President Vladimir Putin’s claims that there is no more fighting in the city. Ukrainian forces likely still hold important positions beyond the plant itself, and Russian forces continue to fight outside the plant, bomb the plant, and assault positions near the plant. Putin’s order not to chase Ukrainian defenders into the tunnels and catacombs of the facility evidently did not preclude continued efforts to secure at least the entire perimeter of the plant and likely also the important M14 highway that runs along it to the north and northwest.

Russia is staging false-flag attacks in Transnistria, Moldova, likely setting conditions for further actions on that front. The two motorized rifle battalions Russia has illegally maintained in Transnistria since the end of the Cold War are not likely sufficient to mount a credible attack on Odesa by themselves, nor are the Russians likely to be able to reinforce them enough to allow them to do so. They could support more limited attacks to the northwest of Odesa, possibly causing panic and creating psychological effects to benefit Russian operations in the south of Ukraine.

Russia may also seek to destabilize Moldova itself, however. Comments by the head of the Donetsk People’s Republic and other Russian officials and proxies raise the possibility that Putin might recognize the self-styled Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic (PMR) in Transnistria as he recognized the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics. The PMR could then ask for additional Russian protection, and Putin could attempt to send some additional forces or capabilities to Transnistria. Any such activities would greatly raise tensions and fears in Moldova and neighboring Romania, putting additional pressure on NATO, possibly giving Putin a cheap “win,” and distracting from Russia’s slog in eastern Ukraine.

Continued indications that Russian forces intend to hold referenda to establish “people’s republics” in occupied areas of southern Ukraine raise the possibility that Putin intends to unveil an array of new “independent” “people’s republics” as part of a Victory Day celebration. The forecast cone is wide, and there is as yet no solid basis to assess one path as much more likely than another. But the false-flag attacks and Russian and Russian proxy reactions to them are alarming, and it behooves NATO and the West to consider the most dangerous courses of action and prepare to meet them.

-A Russian missile has hit a strategic bridge linking the southern Odesa region with neighbouring Romania, Ukrainian officials said. The strike on the bridge, across the Dniester estuary near the city of Odesa, has cut off the railway connection to areas of the Odesa region west of the estuary and Romania, the head of Ukraine’s railways said.

-According to Russian military spokesman Major General Igor Konashenkov, in the afternoon, “high-precision long-range air-launched missiles” hit a logistics terminal located on a military airfield near Odessa, where “a large batch of foreign weapons received from the United States and European countries was stored. Ukraine is extremely low on fuel to the point that secret trains have been discovered delivering enormous emergency fuel supplies from Moldova.

*** ECONOMIC & POLITICAL ***

-The military spending of all nations combined set a new record in 2021, exceeding the $2 trillion mark for the first time ever, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) revealed in a report published on Monday. Governments spent a total of $2.113 trillion on weapons last year. The top spenders were the US, China, India, the UK, and Russia, accounting for 62% of the total sum. According to the researchers, 2021 was the seventh consecutive year in which global military expenditures had grown, despite the strains placed on economies by the Covid-19 pandemic.

While US defense spending slid by 1.4% compared to 2020, Washington remained the absolute global leader, having lavished some $801 billion last year. The SIPRI report also points out that US funding for military research and development – while having dropped by 1.2% last year – still rose by 24% between 2012 and 2021. That suggests that the US is “focusing more on next-generation technologies,” according to Alexandra Marksteiner, a researcher with the SIPRI’s Military Expenditure and Arms Production Programme. “The US Government has repeatedly stressed the need to preserve the US military’s technological edge over strategic competitors,” she said in a statement.
Biden promises eco-friendly US military READ MORE: Biden promises eco-friendly US military

With an estimated $293 billion spent on weapons, China holds second place on the SIPRI’s list. According to the Sweden-based institute, Beijing’s military spending has increased for 27 years in a row, with a 4.7% rise in 2021.

India comes in third with $76.6 billion spent last year, up 0.9% from 2020. The report notes that New Delhi has been working to decrease its dependence on imported arms of late, with 64% of its military outlays having gone to local arms manufacturers.

The UK spent $68.4 billion on defense in 2021, a 3% increase over the previous year.

Russia’s military outlays rose by 2.9% to reach $65.9 billion in 2021. Moscow thus spent 4.1% of its GDP on defense.

-French President Emmanuel Macron was among the first foreign leaders to congratulate Joe Biden on his contested victory over Donald Trump back in November 2020, but he apparently wasn’t around to take the call when his US counterpart tried to return the favor after his re-election victory on Sunday night. “I tried to talk to Emmanuel Macron last night,” Biden told reporters on Monday. “I spoke to his staff, and he was at the Eiffel Tower having a good time. And I’m going to be talking to him today.”

-The US and UK have given Sweden “concrete promises” of military protection between its application to join NATO and its formal acceptance into the alliance, Aftonbladet reported on Monday. Although neutral since the 19th century, Sweden is reportedly preparing to abandon its policy of non-alignment and join the US-led military bloc this year. Recent reports suggest that Sweden and Finland are preparing to file applications to join the NATO alliance this summer. Should Sweden apply for membership, the UK and US have promised to provide military protection between application and membership, after which the alliance’s mutual defense clause would come into effect, Aftonbladet reported, citing multiple government sources. One source said that while NATO members are forbidden from expressing any formal guarantees of protection to non-members, they would still be able to take informal measures like stationing troops in Sweden, hosting military exercises, and offering “political support.” “In practice, Sweden will be treated as a full-fledged NATO member shortly after a declaration of interest,” the newspaper stated, claiming that the UK has specifically offered to increase its naval presence in Swedish waters during the application process.

-Finland and Sweden joining NATO is “very dangerous charlatanry” and amounts to provoking Russia, Croatian President Zoran Milanovic said on Tuesday. Zagreb will refuse to ratify their membership until the US and EU pressure the neighboring Bosnia-Herzegovina into guaranteeing ethnic Croats their basic voting rights, Milanovic added. “As far as I’m concerned, they can get into NATO, they can poke the rabid bear in the eye with a pen,” Milanovic told reporters in Zagreb on Tuesday.

-Ukrainian forces may use UK-supplied weapons to attack targets on Russian soil, British Armed Forces Minister James Heappey said on Tuesday. Moscow has cautioned the West against escalating what it sees as a Russia-NATO “proxy war” in Ukraine, after a series of attacks on its territory. “It is completely legitimate for Ukraine to be targeting in Russia's depth in order to disrupt the logistics that if they weren't disrupted would directly contribute to death and carnage on Ukrainian soil,” Heappey told Times Radio. “There are lots of countries around the world that operate kit that they have imported from other countries; when those bits of kit are used we tend not to blame the country that manufactured it, you blame the country that fired it,” he added.

-Poland Said Would Stop Russian Gas Imports by Year-End, 

Gazprom Said ‘Why Not Today?’

Russia will cut off the gas to Poland on Wednesday in a major escalation in the standoff between Moscow and Europe over energy supplies and the war in Ukraine. Moscow appears to be making good on a threat to halt gas supplies to countries that refuse President Vladimir Putin’s new demand to pay for the crucial fuel in rubles. [It’s not really in rubles but Poland is too proud even for that.] Europe has said that doing so would breach sanctions and strengthen Russia’s hand. Poland has been particularly vociferous in its criticism of Russia and has refused to comply with the new terms. Poland’s main gas supplier PGNiG said it’s been told that all flows will stop from Wednesday. Minutes earlier, Russian gas giant Gazprom PJSC issued a warning that Poland must pay up for its gas supplies — on Tuesday and in the Russian currency.

“I can confirm we’ve received such threats from Gazprom which are linked among other things to the means of payment,” Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki told reporters in Berlin. “Poland is sticking to the arrangements and maybe Russia will try to punish Poland” by cutting deliveries. European gas prices surged as much as 17% as traders calculated the risk of other European countries being hit next. The threat of cutoffs has been looming for weeks, but there was an indication last week that the European Union was suggesting a potential way out of the standoff. Late April and May is when the first payments in rubles fall due — and European governments and energy company executives are in many cases still trying to figure out how best to respond. Europe is hugely dependent on Russian gas, and has so far mostly shielded energy from sanctions. “The possible cut may set a precedent for additional curtailments following Russia’s request for payment in rubles,” Patricio Alvarez, an analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence said.

-The propaganda continues to portray the war in Ukraine as that of an unprovoked Goliath out to decimate an innocent David unless we in the US and NATO contribute massive amounts of military equipment to Ukraine to defeat Russia. As is always the case with propaganda, this version of events is manipulated to bring an emotional response to the benefit of special interests. One group of special interests profiting massively on the war is the US military-industrial complex. Raytheon CEO Greg Hayes recently told a meeting of shareholders that, "Everything that ‘s being shipped into Ukraine today, of course, is coming out of stockpiles, either at DOD or from our NATO allies, and that’s all great news. Eventually we’ll have to replenish it and we will see a benefit to the business."

He wasn’t lying. Raytheon, along with Lockheed Martin and countless other weapons manufacturers are enjoying a windfall they have not seen in years. The US has committed more than three billion dollars in military aid to Ukraine. They call it aid, but it is actually corporate welfare: Washington sending billions to arms manufacturers for weapons sent overseas. By many accounts these shipments of weapons like the Javelin anti-tank missile (jointly manufactured by Raytheon and Lockheed Martin) are getting blown up as soon as they arrive in Ukraine. This doesn’t bother Raytheon at all. The more weapons blown up by Russia in Ukraine, the more new orders come from the Pentagon.

Former Warsaw Pact countries now members of NATO are in on the scam as well. They’ve discovered how to dispose of their 30-year-old Soviet-made weapons and receive modern replacements from the US and other western NATO countries. While many who sympathize with Ukraine are cheering, this multi-billion dollar weapons package will make little difference. As former US Marine intelligence officer Scott Ritter said last week:
 

"I can say with absolute certainty that even if this aid makes it to the battlefield, it will have zero impact on the battle. And Joe Biden knows it."

What we do see is that Russians are capturing modern US and NATO weapons by the ton and even using them to kill more Ukrainians. Also, what kinds of opportunities will be provided to terrorists, with thousands of tons of deadly high-tech weapons floating around Europe? Washington has admitted that it has no way of tracking the weapons it is sending to Ukraine and no way to keep them out of the hands of the bad guys. The only way out of a hole is to stop digging. Don’t expect that any time soon. War is too profitable.

-Poland has offered military aid to Ukraine worth a total of PLN 7 billion (EUR 1.5 billion), Mateusz Morawiecki, the prime minister, has said. “The heroism of Ukrainians has let them stand up against Russian criminals, but they would be unable to fight back without a huge amount of weaponry, ammunition, adequate anti-aircraft and anti-armour equipment, including heavy equipment,” Morawiecki said at a press conference in Warsaw on Saturday. “We’re trying to help our neighbours with all of this,” he said. According to Morawiecki, Poland has sent to Ukraine weapons whose replacement value has reached PLN 7 billion (EUR 1.5 billion) so that “they can defend themselves for us, because that’s where the front line of struggle with the totalitarian Russian regime lies today.”

-Britain’s Foreign Minister Elizabeth Truss is expected to call on allies of Ukraine to “ramp up” military production including of planes and tanks, the AFP is reporting after reviewing a preview of a speech to be delivered on Wednesday. In her speech, called the new approach, Truss says the UK’s new approach “will be based on three areas: military strength, economic security and deeper global alliances”. “We cannot be complacent - the fate of Ukraine remains in the balance”, her speech reads. Russia’s victory will have “terrible consequences across the globe,” Truss is expected to say. “We must be prepared for the long haul and double down on our support for Ukraine. “Heavy weapons, tanks, aeroplanes - digging deep into our inventories, ramping up production. We need to do all of this.”

-British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace told Parliament on Monday that London will send Ukraine “a small number” of armored vehicles equipped to launch Starstreak anti-air missiles. Wallace said that Ukrainian personnel visited a British military training area before these vehicles were selected. “We shall be gifting a small number of armored vehicles fitted with launchers for those anti-air missiles,” Wallace told lawmakers, referring to the Starstreak missiles already pledged to Kiev by Prime Minister Boris Johnson as part of a £100 million ($130 million) arms package earlier this month.

-A senior US defense official told reporters on Tuesday that the Department of Defense established a control center in Germany to assist in the distribution of US military aid to Ukraine, CNN is reporting. The control center, called the EUCOM Control Center of Ukraine or ECCU is based within the US European Command area of responsibility in Stuttgart, Germany. It’s run by a two-star military general and works with the international donor coordination center or IDCC.

-On Tuesday, in response to the World Trade Organization's (WTO) Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala's request for Brazil to increase more food exports, Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro asked the WTO not to sever trade flows with Russia. He said there are 27 Russian vessels hauling fertilizer to Brazil. The South American country imports more than 85% of its fertilizer demand. Russia is its top supplier, and Belarus provides 28% of the total. Restraining fertilizer consumption would be absolutely disastrous, crush harvest yields, and threaten the world's food security. The country is a top exporter of coffee, sugar, soybeans, manioc, rice, maize, cotton, edible beans, and wheat. 

-Russia’s defence ministry warned of an immediate “proportional response” if Britain continues its “direct provocation” of the Kyiv regime, after the UK armed forces minister, James Heappey, described Ukrainian strikes on Russian soil that hit supplies and disrupt logistics as “completely legitimate”.

-Boris Johnson said that Facebook has agreed to take down a video of Aiden Aslin, a British prisoner of war being held in Donetsk by Russian forces. The video is believed to be Russian propaganda, and shows Aslin being accused of serving as a mercenary.

-Moldova’s president, Maia Sandu, said a series of incidents in the Russian-backed separatist Transnistria region were an attempt by pro-war factions to increase tensions. Sandu convened a meeting of her security council after local authorities said two antennas carrying Russian radio broadcasts had been blown up. Ukraine’s foreign ministry condemned what it said were Russian attempts to drag the region into its war against Ukraine.

-A Russian minister refused to rule out Moldova’s breakaway region Transnistria being drawn into the Ukraine war, in a potential escalation of the conflict to another European country. The deputy foreign minister, Andrey Rudenko, said Moscow “was concerned” over the string of recent explosions in Transnistria, saying Russia “would like to avoid a scenario” in which Transnistria would be dragged into the war, deepening fears that the Russian-backed region could soon be drawn into the conflict in Ukraine. Speaking to journalists in Moscow, Rudenko said the “situation with the explosions” in the region indicated that “certain forces” behind the attacks were interested in creating “another hotbed of tension in Europe” – a reference to two episodes of violence reported in the enclave in as many days.

-US and allies to move ‘heaven and earth’ to help Ukraine, says defence secretary. The United States has vowed to move “heaven and earth” to help Ukraine win its battle against Russia’s invasion as it hosted defence talks in Germany with allies from 40 nations. Speaking at the Ramstein airbase in southwestern Germany, the US defence secretary, Lloyd Austin, pledged to “help Ukraine win the fight against Russia’s unjust invasion and to build up Ukraine’s defences for tomorrow’s challenges”.

-Following initial reports from Poland’s largest news portal Onet that Russian natural gas delivery to Poland had been suspended, Gazprom denied that it had at this point stopped flows. However, it quickly said that it will halt gas deliveries starting tomorrow. But at this point gas from Russia is not flowing via the Yamal pipeline, disrupting delivery to Germany. After the initial reports, which sent European gas princes exploding, Poland has confirmed that a suspension of gas is imminent if it doesn't agree to pay in Rubles. Bloomberg is now reporting, "Poland’s main gas distributor PGNiG says it was informed by Gazprom that starting from Wednesday at CET0800 all deliveries of natural gas will be halted." And further, "PGNiG says will seek damages over breach of contract." The news comes after a reported crisis meeting of Poland’s Climate Ministry. Now it appears some final decisions must be made amid the ultimatum from Moscow.

-Russia’s gas company Gazprom is also halting gas deliveries to Bulgaria, AFP reported. In addition to Poland, Gazprom has announced that it would stop delivering gas to Bulgaria after demanding that countries pay for gas in rubles. Gazprom executives were quoted by Russian news agencies as saying “Poland must pay for gas supplies according to the new payment procedure”. However, it was not immediately clear whether Bulgaria has refused to pay in rubles as well. “Bulgargaz received a notification today, April 26, that natural gas supplies from Gazprom Export will be suspended starting April 27,” Bulgaria’s economy ministry said in a statement.

-In a major reversal following Chancellor Olaf Scholz only days ago voicing strong resistance, it appears Berlin has bowed to the mounting pressure among allies and approved new tank deliveries to Ukraine from Germany's own stock, which Scholz had previously said was depleted. The German Ministry of Defense announced Tuesday that delivery of Gepard anti-aircraft tanks to Ukraine has been approved. As part of Scholz's earlier rejection of sending heavy weapons systems, he had cited the potential for the West and Russia sliding into a WW3 and nuclear war scenario. Axios reports that "The new shipment of the German-made Flakpanzer Gepard was announced by Germany's Minister of Defense Christine Lambrecht during a meeting with more than 30 defense officials from dozens of NATO and non-NATO countries at Ramstein Air Base."

-Moldova’s president, Maia Sandu, has been speaking at a press briefing following a meeting of the country’s security council after a series of blasts were reported in the Russian-backed separatist Transnistria region.

Reuters report some key points from Sandu’s briefing:

Sandu condemned any attempts to ruin peace in her country and said Moldova will take all measures to prevent escalation.
Recent incidents are an attempt to escalate tensions, with assessments showing pro-war factions within the Transnistria region are responsible for the attacks.
The situation in the breakaway region is complex and tense, but Moldova remains open to negotiating a peaceful resolution to issues.
Sandu says she has no plans to speak to the Kremlin.

The Organization for Security and Co-operation (OSCE) in Moldova tweeted that it “condemns all attempts to destabilise (the) situation” in Transnistria and its buffer zone.

-Russia dismisses Ukraine’s call for peace talks in Mariupol. Russia’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, said Russia has dismissed Ukraine’s proposal to stage peace talks in the port city of Mariupol. Asked about the prospect of talks, Lavrov said it was a “theatrical gesture” from Ukraine and “they probably wanted another heartrending scene”.

-The Biden administration is seeking expanded government powers so it can enlist such agencies as the CIA and NASA in protecting the US against threats from drones. The push is part of a “whole-of-government” campaign to address security threats posed by the rising number of unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) in operation, which will involve increased monitoring efforts to detect and disable threatening drones. “The administration is working to expand where we can protect against nefarious UAS activity, who is authorized to take action, and how it can be accomplished lawfully,” the White House said on Monday in a statement. Congress passed legislation in 2018 giving the executive branch, including the Departments of Justice and Homeland Security, expanded powers to disable or destroy drones that are deemed dangerous. The Biden administration has called on lawmakers to go further in eliminating barriers that “impede government and law enforcement from protecting the American people and our vital security interests.”

-On Monday, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said Warsaw has delivered tanks to Ukraine as the US and its NATO allies are working to provide Kyiv with heavier weapons despite warnings from Moscow. Morawiecki wouldn’t detail what types of tanks or how many were sent to Ukraine. Earlier this month, the Czech Republic sent over a dozen Soviet-designed T-72 tanks, and other NATO members are planning to get more tanks into Kyiv’s hands.

-Slovenia is expected to send a large number of T-72 tanks to Ukraine in exchange for German-made Marder tanks, and Fox wheeled tanks.

-As Ukraine burns through anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles the US has been supplying Kiev, Raytheon CEO warned on Tuesday that the company won’t be able to replenish the Pentagon stockpiles for at least several years, citing a shortage of electronic components. “We're going to have to go out and redesign some of the electronics in the missile and the seeker head,” Raytheon Technologies CEO Greg Hayes told investment analysts during the company’s quarterly earnings call, according to Defense One. “That's going to take us a little bit of time.”

-Washington is doing everything in its power to ensure that Taiwan can withstand any potential attack, by supporting its indigenous military industry, expediting “third-party transfers,” and helping the island boost its “asymmetric” deterrence capabilities, Secretary of State Antony Blinken has said. “When it comes to Taiwan itself, we are determined to make sure that it has all necessary means to defend itself against any potential aggression, including unilateral action by China to disrupt the status quo that’s been in place for many decades,” Blinken said on Tuesday in a testimony to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.Blinken noted that the US has made or facilitated nearly $20 billion in arms sales and $2.5 billion in direct commercial sales to Taiwan since 2017. “We’ve been expediting third-party transfers to Taiwan,” he added. “We’ve been supporting indigenous industrial defense capability. And we are focused on helping them think about how to strengthen asymmetric capabilities, again as a deterrent.”