*** MILITARY SITUATION ***
Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 47-51
The past 120 hrs. have seen Russian forces attempt to break through the Donets River Line & Severodonetsk Salient. In Mariupol Russian forces have made multiple gains, Ukrainian defenses still hold SW & central Mariupol.
Kharkiv OD
Russian forces remained focused on fixing Ukrainian maneuver units in the Kharkiv area while screening the movement of Russian forces from Belgorod to Izium. Ukrainian forces appear to be opting for limited attacks against Russian critical targets.
Severodonetsk-Donetsk OD
Russian forces continue daily small-scale attacks SE & SW of Izium and against Rubizhne, Severodonetsk, and Popasna. Russia continues to feed reinforcements piecemeal into combat like they did around Kyiv. This approach squanders what offensive capability Russia has left. Conversely this plays to Ukraine’s defensive strengths and will allow Ukrainian forces to gradually attrit Russian combat power and enable transition to more significant counterattacks.
Zaporizhzhia OD
Russian activity in the in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast remains focused on the capture of Mariupol. Limited attacks and counterattacks by Russian and Ukrainian forces continue between the line running from Vasylivka to Volnovakha.
Mariupol
The situation in Mariupol continues to deteriorate for Ukrainian defenders, yet they hold on to SW & central Mariupol. It is unclear how much longer they can hold out, but the increase of Russian strike activity suggests they have heavily damaged Russian forces.
Odesa-Kherson OD
Russian forces continue to struggle with maintaining meaningful control of Kherson. Attempts to expand the Russian defensive perimeter west of Kherson have not been successful. Ukraine may launch larger counterattacks here.
The sinking of the Black Seas Fleet flagship, the Moskva, is an important psychological victory for Ukraine, being the largest ship sunk in combat since World War II. The Moskva was the only BSF ship with long-range air defense.
Russian forces continued small-scale, tactical attacks on the Izyum and Severodonetsk axes; additional reinforcements to date have not enabled any breakthroughs of Ukrainian defenses. Russian forces continue to deploy reinforcements to eastern Ukraine but show no indication of taking an operational pause. The Russian military appears to be carrying out an approach in eastern Ukrainian similar to its failed efforts north of Kyiv in early March—continuing to funnel small groups of forces into unsuccessful attacks against Ukrainian defensive positions without taking the operational pause that is likely necessary to prepare for a more successful offensive campaign. Russian forces continue to grind down Ukrainian defenders in Mariupol, though ISW cannot currently assess how long these forces will hold out and their current supply status.
Ceasefire negotiations have effectively collapsed. Both Russian and Ukrainian officials are unprepared to engage in serious negotiations in the coming weeks in any format. Virtual negotiations are continuing without progress.[1] Kyiv and Moscow are both likely counting on the outcome of Russia’s offensive in eastern Ukraine to recalibrate their negotiating positions.
-Russian forces continued to grind down Ukrainian defenses in southwestern and eastern Mariupol, though ISW cannot confirm any major new territorial changes in the past 24 hours. Ukrainian defenders reported that the situation is “deteriorating” and Russian forces are deploying additional artillery and heavy weapons.
-Russian forces continued unsuccessful daily attacks against Rubizhne, Popasna, and Marinka and heavy shelling along the line of contact in eastern Ukraine.
-Ukrainian forces repelled Russian attacks from Izyum toward both Slovyansk and Barvinkove.
-For the first time since the Feb.24 invasion, it's being widely reported that the Russian military has struck Ukrainian targets using long-range bombers. Ukrainian defense ministry spokesman Oleksandr Motuzyanyk said Friday that bombs were dropped by Tu-22M3 aircraft over positions in the port city of Mariupol. "On April 14, two Russian strategic heavy bombers Tu-95/-160 have launched cruise missiles hitting the territory of Ukraine from Krasnodar Krai of Russian Federation airspace," he said. "Also for the first time from the start of the armed aggression bombs were dropped by a long-range bombers Tu-22M3. This airstrike took place, hitting Mariupol." It's believed Russian forces are attempting to secure a corridor that stretches from Mariupol to the Crimean Peninsula as the war for the Donbas region heats up. Motuzyanyk described that there are still major street battles happening in and near Mariupol, which before the war had nearly 500,000 people. The use of long-range bombers could signal the start of a new Russian strategy. The Kremlin has recently admitted it's suffered bigger than expected casualties, with many analysts pointing out that so far Russia has been restrained when it comes to major bombing raids on Ukrainian cities.
-Street battles are continuing in Mariupol. Fighting is taking place around Mariupol’s Illich Steel and Iron Works, as well as in the port area. Outgunned, outnumbered and surrounded by Russian forces, one of Europe’s biggest metallurgical plants has become Mariupol’s redoubt. The factory is “an enormous space” in which the Russians “simply can’t find” Ukrainian forces, Oleh Zhdanov – a military analyst based in Kyiv – told Reuters.
-Russia has warned missile strikes on Kyiv ‘will increase’, reports state-owned RIA news. It’s the latest line coming out of the Russian defence ministry, after powerful explosions were heard in Kyiv overnight. The Russians claim they have hit 13 military facilities in different areas and system shot down a Ukrainian Mi-8 helicopter near Chernigov.
-Kyiv was hit on Friday by some of the most powerful explosions heard since Russian forces withdrew from the area two weeks ago. Amid a warning that missile attacks would increase due to allegations of attacks and sabotage by Ukrainian forces within Russia’s borders, Moscow said it had struck a plant in the capital that made and repaired Ukrainian missiles, including anti-ship missiles. The move follows the sinking of the Russian Black Sea flagship Moskva.
-Russia targets Ukrainian missile factory following the sinking of its Black Sea flagship. The Vizar factory, near Kyiv’s international airport, was reported seriously damaged in the overnight strikes, AFP reports. Ukraine’s state weapons manufacturer says the plant produced Neptune cruise missiles, at least one of which Ukraine says were used to sink the Moskva warship.
-Russia’s defence ministry said it had captured the city’s Illich steelworks, but that report could not be confirmed. Ukrainian defenders are mainly believed to be holding out in Azovstal, another huge steelworks. Both plants are owned by Metinvest – the empire of Ukraine’s richest businessman and backbone of Ukraine’s industrial east – which told Reuters on Friday it would never let its enterprises operate under Russian occupation.
*** ECONOMIC & POLITICAL ***
-Finland's Europe minister: 'highly likely' Finland will join Nato, application process should be 'quick as possible'. Tytti Tuppurainen is Finland’s minister for European affairs, and she has been interviewed on Sky News in the UK about Finland’s prospect for joining Nato. Speaking from Helsinki, she said there was now a profound change in the relations between Russia and Finland, which saddens her.
-Russia sent a formal diplomatic note to the US this week calling on Washington and NATO to stop arming Ukraine. The note, which was obtained by The Washington Post, said the Western campaign to pour weapons into Ukraine was “adding fuel” to the conflict and could lead to “unpredictable consequences.” The diplomatic note was sent Tuesday, when news broke of a new massive US military aid package for Ukraine. President Biden announced the new aid on Wednesday, which is worth $800 million and includes howitzers for the first time. The package also includes helicopters, armed Switchblade drones, coastal defense drones, armored vehicles, radar systems, and thousands of Stinger and Javelin missiles.
-The German government says it plans to release more than a billion euros in military aid for Ukraine. On Friday the country’s finance minister, Christian Lindner, confirmed the government had decided to increase its international aid in the defence sector to €2bn, with the largest portion going to Ukraine as military aid. The funds must mainly be used by Ukraine for military equipment purchases, the Associated Press reported.
-Outgunned, outnumbered and surrounded by Russian forces, one of Europe’s biggest metallurgical plants has become Mariupol’s redoubt. The factory is “an enormous space” in which the Russians “simply can’t find” Ukrainian forces, Oleh Zhdanov – a military analyst based in Kyiv – told Reuters.
-Dozens of people gathered in the Crimean city of Sevastopol on Friday to mourn the sinking of the flagship of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, a symbol, the crowd heard, of hope, revival and power until its demise. Some embraced and others laid flowers in memory of the Moskva missile cruiser at a monument to the 1696 foundation of the Russian navy in the centre of Sevastopol, headquarters of the Black Sea Fleet.
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