*** MILITARY SITUATION ***
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 4th
Continuing Russian operations along their new main effort in eastern Ukraine made little progress on April 2, and Russian forces likely require some time to redeploy and integrate reinforcements from other axes. Ukrainian forces repelled likely large-scale Russian assaults in Donbas on April 2 and inflicted heavy casualties. Russian forces continued to capture territory in central Mariupol and will likely capture the city in the coming days. Russian units around Kyiv and in northeastern Ukraine continued to successfully withdraw into Belarus and Russia, and heavy mining in previously Russian-occupied areas is forcing Ukrainian forces to conduct slow clearing operations.
However, the Russian units withdrawn from northeastern Ukraine for redeployment to eastern Ukraine are heavily damaged. Russian forces likely require an extensive operational pause to refit existing units in Donbas, refit and redeploy reinforcements from other axes, and integrate these forces—pulled from several military districts that have not yet operated on a single axis—into a cohesive fighting force. We have observed no indicators of Russian plans to carry out such a pause, and Russian forces will likely fail to break through Ukrainian defenses if they continue to steadily funnel already damaged units into fighting in eastern Ukraine.
The Ukrainian General Staff reported on April 2 that out of the 75 Russian Battalion Tactical Groups (BTGs) it assesses have participated in operations in Ukraine, 16 BTGs have been “completely destroyed” and 34 more are currently combat ineffective and recovering. ISW cannot independently confirm these numbers, but Russian forces will be unlikely to be able to resume major operations if two-thirds of the BTGs committed to fighting to date have been rendered temporarily or permanently combat ineffective.
The Ukrainian General Staff stated on April 2 that Belarusian forces are increasing the pace of ongoing training, but that Ukraine does not observe any indicators of preparations for a Belarusian offensive. Belarusian social media users observed Belarusian air defenses redeploying towards Luninets and Slutsk (in central Belarus) on April 2, but no Belarusian forces were observed moving near the Ukrainian border. ISW assesses Belarusian President Lukashenko will continue to resist Russian efforts to involve Belarus in the war in Ukraine.
-Russian forces continued to capture territory in central Mariupol on April 2 and will likely capture the city within days.
-Ukrainian forces repelled several possibly large-scale Russian assaults in Donbas, claiming to destroy almost 70 Russian vehicles.
-Russian forces will likely require a lengthy operational pause to integrate reinforcements into existing force structures in eastern Ukraine and enable successful operations but appear unlikely to do so and will continue to bleed their forces in ineffective daily attacks.
-Russian forces in Izyum conducted an operational pause after successfully capturing the city on April 1 and will likely resume offensive operations to link up with Russian forces in Donbas in the coming days.
-Russia continued to withdraw forces from the Kyiv axis into Belarus and Russia. Ukrainian forces primarily conducted operations to sweep and clear previously Russian-occupied territory.
-Ukrainian forces likely repelled limited Russian attacks in Kherson Oblast.
-The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces have rendered two-thirds of the 75 Russian Battalion Tactical Groups it assesses have fought in Ukraine either temporarily or permanently combat ineffective.
-Russians destroyed Ukraine’s biggest oil refinery in Kremenchuk during the April 1 missile attack. Russia has been conducting targeted attacks on oil depots around the country, including in Lviv and Dnipro.
-Russian naval forces maintain their distant blockade of the Ukrainian coast in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov, preventing Ukrainian resupply by sea. Russia still retains the capability to attempt an amphibious landing but such an operation is likely to be increasingly high risk due to the time Ukrainian forces have had to prepare. Reported mines within the Black Sea pose a serious risk to maritime activity.
*** ECONOMIC & POLITICAL ***
-Russian ambassador Andrey Kelin has warned that the arrival of British weapons will make the conflict in Ukraine 'even bloodier' and stressed that British arms convoys will be 'legitimate targets' as soon as they cross the Ukrainian border
-The Ukrainian military has just released its operational report as of 6am this morning, claiming Russia has launched a “hidden mobilisation” of around 60,000 soldiers to replenish units lost in Ukraine.
-CNN has cited anonymous US and European intelligence officials to say that Putin is aiming to achieve victory in Ukraine by May 9th, or a little over a month away. But 'victory' - as we've seen - appears to now be limited in scope to the East and South. The report says Putin is under increased pressure to demonstrate battlefield victory after multiple weeks of stalled momentum: "More than a month into the war, Russian ground forces have been unable to keep control of areas where they have been fighting. Russian President Vladimir Putin is under pressure to demonstrate he can show a victory, and eastern Ukraine is the place where he is most likely to be able to quickly do that, officials say."
The CNN report says: US intelligence intercepts suggest Putin is focused on May 9, Russia's "Victory Day," according to one of the officials. May 9 is a prominent holiday on the Russian calendar, a day the country marks the Nazi surrender in World War II with a huge parade of troops and weaponry across Red Square in front of the Kremlin. The officials say Putin wants to be able to celebrate a victory -- of some kind -- in his war on that day. But other officials note even if there is a Russian celebration, an actual victory may be further off.
-NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said Finland and Sweden would be quickly brought into the alliance should they seek membership, as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine stokes security concerns on the bloc’s eastern flank. “Of course, it’s for them to decide but, if they apply, I expect that they will be very much welcomed by all 30 allies and that we will find ways to do that in a relatively quick way to take them into the alliance if they so want,” Stoltenberg said on Sunday in an interview with CNN. Stoltenberg made his comments after meeting last week with Finnish President Sauli Niinistö, noting that NATO’s main message was that it’s for Finland to decide whether to join the alliance. He said the same is true of Sweden.
-Ukraine has accused Russian forces of committing war crimes and a “massacre” in Bucha, a town just 30km northwest of the capital Kyiv, after the bodies of unarmed Ukrainian civilians and mass graves were found on Sunday. Bodies of civilians - many with bound hands, close-range gunshot wounds and signs of torture - were found on the streets after Ukrainian troops reclaimed the town.
Ukrainian prosecutors said they found 410 bodies in towns near Kyiv, and 140 bodies had been examined on Sunday. Russia denied allegations that its forces had killed civilians as it retreated from war-torn areas of the country.
Russia’s foreign ministry said that footage of dead civilians in the Ukrainian town of Bucha had been “ordered” by the United States as part of a plot to blame Russia. “Who are the masters of provocation? Of course the United States and Nato,” ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said in an interview on state television late on Sunday, Reuters reports.
-The Bank of Russia has resumed gold purchases this week, but more importantly, the regulator is doing so at a fixed price of 5,000 rubles ($59) per 1 gram between March 28 and June 30, raising the possibility of Russia returning to the gold standard for the first time in over a century. If the country takes the next step, as has been proposed this week, to sell its commodities priced in rubles, these combined moves could have huge implications for the ruble, the US dollar, and the global economy.
-Regional administration spokesperson Sergey Bratchuk has told Ukraine’s public broadcaster that one of Odesa’s “critical infrastructure facilities” was struck this morning, according to Reuters. “We hope there will be no casualties,” Bratchuk said. Missiles struck the southern port city in the early hours of Sunday, the city council said in an online post. Anton Herashchenko, adviser to the interior minister, wrote on his Telegram account that Odessa was attacked from the air. “Fires were reported in some areas. Some of the missiles were shot down by air defence,” he said.
-Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky got a green light from Washington to offer Russia relief from international sanctions in exchange for ending its military offensive against the former Soviet republic. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken opened the door to such an offer on Sunday, confirming in an NBC News interview that Zelensky has the ability to negotiate sanctions relief for peace. He said President Joe Biden’s administration will support whatever the Ukrainian people want to do to bring the war to an end.
-Jaroslaw Kaczynski, Poland’s Deputy Prime Minister, has spoken in favor of US nuclear weapons being deployed in eastern Europe, citing Russia’s military offensive against Ukraine. In an interview with Germany’s Die Welt news outlet published on Sunday, Kaczynski said that “fundamentally, it makes sense to expand nuclear sharing to the eastern flank,” apparently referring to a NATO concept by which “the benefits, responsibilities and risks of nuclear deterrence are shared across the Alliance.” The Polish official noted, however, that such an initiative should come from the US. On top of that, Kaczynski called on the military bloc to set up a new command center in Poland, akin to the one in the Dutch town of Brunssum, “from where joint NATO deployments will be planned and conducted.”
-Russia has today announced it will end co-operation on the International Space station until Western-led sanctions over its Ukraine invasion are lifted. The head of the country's space agency said it will no longer work with its partners, including NASA and the European Space Agency, on the groundbreaking orbiting laboratory. The chief of Roscosmos, Dmitry Rogozin, revealed the move on Twitter and said he will submit a timetable for completion of current projects to the Kremlin. The ISS, a symbol of post-Cold War detente, is split into two halves, with life support coming from the US half, and propulsion, stopping it falling to Earth, coming from Russia's side. Rogozin previously said their responsibilities on the ISS could fall to the US or Europe if it pulled out, but the US said it would be 'very difficult' to operate the satellite on its own.
-After European nations imported the most gas from Russian sources yesterday in months, scrambling to stock up on supplies as Russian President Vladimir Putin's deadline to either pay for gas in rubles (or be cut off) came and went, Russian gas giant Gazprom has officially halted all deliveries to Europe via the Yamal-Europe pipeline, a critical artery for European energy supplies. Instead of flowing toward Germany and the EU, gas supplies on Friday and Saturday started flowing in the opposite direction, according to Gascade, the network operator.
-The head of Latvia’s natural gas storage operator said on Latvian radio today that the Baltic states were no longer importing Russian natural gas. AFP is reporting that Uldis Bariss, CEO of Conexus Baltic Grid, said: “Since 1 April, Russian natural gas is no longer flowing to Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania.” This interview came after Lithuanian president Gitanas Nauseda called on the rest of the Europe to follow the example of the Baltic states.
-The UK Ministry of Defence has released the following update on the situation in Ukraine: Over the last week, there has been a concentration of Russian air activity towards south eastern Ukraine, likely a result of Russia focusing its military operations in this area. Despite ongoing Russian efforts to diminish Ukrainian air defence capability, Ukraine continues to provide a significant challenge to Russian Air and Missile operations. As a result, Russian aircraft are still vulnerable to short and medium range air defence systems. Russia’s inability to find and destroy air defence systems has seriously hampered their efforts to gain broad control of the air, which in turn has significantly affected their ability to support the advance of their ground forces on a number of fronts.
-A Pentagon official told Congress on Friday that there are no "offensive" biological weapons in any of the dozens of US-linked labs in Ukraine. "I can say to you unequivocally there are no offensive biologic weapons in the Ukraine laboratories that the United States has been involved with," Deborah Rosenbaum, the assistant secretary of defense for nuclear, chemical, and biological defense programs, told the House Armed Services subcommittee. The Pentagon funds labs in Ukraine through its Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA). According to a Pentagon fact sheet released last month, since 2005, the US has "invested" $200 million in "supporting 46 Ukrainian laboratories, health facilities, and diagnostic sites." Moscow has accused Ukraine of conducting an emergency clean-up of a secret Pentagon-funded biological weapons program when Russia invaded. The World Health Organization said it advised Ukraine to destroy "high-threat pathogens" around the time of the invasion.
-Ukrainian forces have retaken control of the entire territory of the Kyiv region, Ukraine’s deputy defence minister Hanna Malyar posted on Facebook tonight. “Irpin, Bucha, Gostomel and the whole Kyiv region - is liberated from the invader,” she wrote.
-Interfax Ukraine is reporting that Turkey is likely to be the place where Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy will meet for peace negotiations. Turkish president Tayyip Erdogan had called Putin and Zelenskiy on Friday “and seemed to confirm from his side that they are ready to arrange a meeting in the near future”, negotiator David Arakhamia said. Negotiations over the past few days have been difficult, Reuters is reporting, with the Kremlin saying that one of the goals of its “military operation” in Ukraine is to restore the statehoods of Donetsk and Luhansk within the borders negotiated in 2014.
-Ukrainian refugees, fleeing their homeland, are among the hundreds of thousands seeking asylum in the United States at the Mexican border, living in dangerous conditions and sleeping in tents as they wait to start their immigration process. Reuters reported last month that a growing number of both Russians and Ukrainians were travelling to Mexico and taking their chances at the border.
-Russia’s assault on Ukraine and its veiled threats of using nuclear arms have policymakers, past and present, thinking the unthinkable: How should the West respond to a Russian battlefield explosion of a nuclear bomb? The default US policy answer, say some architects of the post-Cold War nuclear order, is with discipline and restraint. That could entail stepping up sanctions and isolation for Russian president Vladimir Putin, said Rose Gottemoeller, deputy secretary-general of Nato from 2016 to 2019.
But no one can count on calm minds to prevail in such a moment, and real life seldom goes to plan. World leaders would be angry, affronted, fearful.Miscommunication and confusion could be rife. Hackers could add to the chaos. Demands would be great for tough retaliation — the kind that can be done with nuclear-loaded missiles capable of moving faster than the speed of sound.
When military and civilian officials and experts have war-gamed Russian-US nuclear tensions in the past, the tabletop exercises sometimes end with nuclear missiles arcing across continents and oceans, striking the capitals of Europe and North America, killing millions within hours, said Olga Oliker, programme director for Europe and Central Asia at the International Crisis Group. “And, you know, soon enough, you’ve just had a global thermonuclear war,” Oliker said. It’s a scenario officials hope to avoid, even if Russia targets Ukraine with a nuclear bomb.
-The Biden administration announced on April 1 it is raising requirements for fuel efficiency, reversing a rollback by the Trump administration. New vehicles sold in the United States will have to travel an average of at least 49 miles per gallon of gasoline in 2026 under the new federal rules. The requirement would have been at 32 mpg if going by rules under the Trump administration. Specifically, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) said fuel efficiency requirements will increase by 8 percent annually for 2024 and 2025 model years, and 10 percent annually for model year 2026. The Trump administration had in March 2020 rolled back fuel efficiency requirements to 1.5 percent annual increases through 2026. The Obama administration had required 5 percent annual increases.
-According to the German Retail Association (HDE), consumers should prepare for another wave of price hikes for everyday goods and groceries with Reuters reporting that prices at German retail chains will explode between 20 and 50%. Even before the outbreak of war in Ukraine, prices had risen by about five per cent “across the product range” as a result of increased energy prices, HDE President Josef Sanktjohanser told the Neue Osnabrücker Zeitung on Friday. With Russia’s invasion hitting economies and the supply chain harder, yet another series of price increases is on the horizon. “The second wave of price increases is coming, and it will certainly be in double figures,” Sanktjohanser warned, cited by The Local. According to the president of the trade association, the first retail chains have already started to raise their prices in Germany – and the rest are likely to follow. “We will soon be able to see the impact of the war reflected in price labels across all the supermarkets,” said Sanktjohanser.
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