*** MILITARY SITUATION ***
-Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 2
March 2 Map of Russian Operations:
Russian forces resumed offensive operations on both axes of advance toward Kyiv after largely pausing for 72 hours to reinforce and resupply their troops north and west of Kyiv. Russian operations to envelop Kyiv are Moscow’s main effort. Russian troops are also undertaking three supporting efforts, one to seize Kharkiv, one to take Mariupol and secure the “land bridge” connecting Rostov-on-Don to Crimea, and one to secure Kherson and set conditions for a drive west toward Mykolayiv and Odesa. The three supporting operations were active in the last 24 hours; Russian forces likely captured Kherson and began a bombardment of critical civilian infrastructure in Mariupol in a likely effort to force the city to surrender while making few territorial gains in Kharkiv.
Russian forces are receiving needed supplies and reinforcements that may facilitate much more rapid and effective operations in the coming 24-72 hours. The Russian effort around Kyiv remains poorly organized, however, with elements of many different battalions combined into what seem to be ad hoc groupings rather than operating under standing regiment or brigade headquarters. The initial errors in the Russian force composition and organization in Belarus and western Russia, which contributed to Russian logistical and operational failures around Kyiv, will be difficult to remedy quickly and will likely continue to cause friction and reduce the effectiveness of Russian operations even as supply issues are addressed and reinforcements come into the fight. It remains too early to evaluate the likely effective combat power the added Russian troops will bring.
-A week after launching its invasion of Ukraine, Russia claimed that its forces had taken control a first sizeable city on Wednesday, seizing Kherson, in the south.
-The strategically important Sea of Azov port city of Mariupol is also reportedly surrounded by Russian troops.
-Russian forces resumed offensive operations against Kyiv’s western outskirts on March 2 after pausing for resupply February 27-March 1 but failed to secure any additional territory.
-Russian forces launched offensive operations in Zhytomyr Oblast, expanding their envelopment of Kyiv further west than ISW previously assessed—likely to outflank stronger-than-anticipated Ukrainian resistance and limited Ukrainian counterattacks in Kyiv’s outskirts.
-Russian forces renewed advances towards northeastern Kyiv on March 2, reaching a line approximately 65km from the city center on that axis.
-Russian paratroopers landed in Ukraine’s second city, Kharkiv, following several days of bombardment. Russian forces assaulted central Kharkiv and continued to heavily bombard the city on March 2.
-Russian forces fully encircled Mariupol as of March 2 and are conducting a deliberate campaign to destroy critical civilian infrastructure and residential areas in a likely attempt to force the city to surrender.
-Russian forces continued to reduce pockets of Ukrainian resistance in Kherson on March 2 and will likely secure the city in the next 24 hours if they have not done so already.
-Residents in the key Black sea port of Odesa were stepping up preparations to defend it against a potential Russian amphibious landing, amid sightings of a convoy of Russian warships, and US warnings that a landing to target Odesa could happen as early as Thursday.
-An interesting thread regarding implied poor Russian Army vehicle maintenance practices that suggests Russian soldiers are not abandoning Russian equipment, rather more equipment than expected is breaking down in the field, slowing the advance.
- Some Military observers are flabbergasted that a Russian invasion force, fully prepared and operating from Russian soil, has been able to move just tens of miles into an adjoining country. One retired U.S. Army general told Newsweek in an email: “We know that Russia has a plodding army and that Russian military force has always been a blunt instrument, but why risk the antipathy of the entire planet if you have no prospect of achieving even minimal gains.” The Army general believes that the only explanation is that the Kremlin overestimated its own forces. “I believe that at the heart of Russian military thinking is how Marshall Zhukov marched across Eastern Europe to Berlin,” a former high-level CIA official told Newsweek in an interview. Zhukov’s orders were to “line up the artillery and … flatten everything ahead of you,” he says. “‘Then send in the peasant Army to kill or rape anyone left alive.’ Subtle the Russians are not.” In the short term, Russia’s military failures in Ukraine increase the threat of escalation, including the possibility of the use of nuclear weapons. But in the longer term, if escalation doesn’t worsen and the Ukrainian conflict can be contained, Russian conventional military weakness upends many assumptions that geopolitical strategists—even those inside the U.S. government—make about Russia as a military threat.
[My Note] Reminder that the Russians are not using their bomber forces and other strategic assets at all thus far. The Russians could be blowing to smithereens the Ukranian populace. Human decency has been an impediment to the Russian's in the war so far. This may change.
*** ECONOMIC & POLITICAL ***
-INDIA and China faced an angry backlash last night after they abstained on a UN vote to condemn the invasion of Ukraine. But the two major powers were among 34 to abstain. Most of the world united in backing the UN General Assembly motion calling on Russia to withdraw. Russia was one of five countries, which included North Korea and Syria, that voted against the motion.
Countries that voted against or abstained from the vote
-The United States is facing the greatest strategic threat in history with the new partnership between Russia and the Chinese regime, warned KT McFarland, former deputy national security adviser under the Trump administration.
-As the Ukraine crisis escalates, Taipei welcomed a high-level visit by former top U.S. defense officials, which indicates “rock-solid relations” between Taiwan and the United States, a Taiwanese official said. The unannounced delegation arrived in Taipei at 4:13 p.m. local time on March 1, according to Taiwan’s state-run Central News Agency (CNA). The group, led by retired Admiral Mike Mullen, former chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, will meet President Tsai Ing-wen in the following morning, and attend a banquet later that day.
-The soaring cost of oil and other key commodities in the wake of the invasion threatens to unleash another bout of damaging inflation and supply shortages on the global economy. The price of benchmark Brent crude oil added another 3.4% in early trade on Thursday to climb to $116.80. The cost of other crucial commodities such as aluminum (2.62%), iron ore (7.75%), copper (1.6%) and wheat (7%) were also on an upward curve, thanks to tighter supplies but also bulk buying by the Chinese government, according to analysts.
Commodities remain the biggest market story of early trading Thursday:
Brent @ $118
Aluminum in Shanghai +3-4%
Iron ore up 8-9% in Singapore, Dalian
The Russia-Ukraine war has been pumping up global commodity prices, not only because of the supply disruption, but also resulting from hedging activities. Markets have priced in for a much tighter oil supply, with oil tankers and shippers in a standoff for Russia’s exports. China has also ordered the state-owned buyers to store major commodities, including oil, gas, iron ore and agriculture products. Crude oil futures are heading toward $US120 a barrel. Russia supplies around 30% of Europe’s gas and oil imports and accounts for around 11% of world oil production. In short, investors are worried about a stagflationary shock.
-Russia’s central bank has imposed a 30% commission on foreign currency purchases by individuals on currency exchanges, brokers have told Reuters, citing a letter from the regulator.
-Russian oligarchs could be sheltering outside of Russia as Russian President Vladimir Putin continues the seventh day of incursions in Ukraine. Bloomberg data shows the four biggest Russian-owned luxury yachts are in the Maldives. The largest is Ocean Victory, a 140-meter superyacht owned by Viktor Filippovich Rashnikov, a Russian billionaire who made most of his wealth in the iron and steel industry. Aluminum tycoon Oleg Deripaska is sailing his 72-meter yacht, called Clio, in the same area.
-The entire staff of Gerhard Schroeder, the former German chancellor who is close to Russian President Vladimir Putin and an advocate of increasing Russian natural gas exports to Germany, has resigned in protest over his ties to the Kremlin. The employees quit because they were embarrassed by Mr. Schroeder’s prominent roles at three Russian gas and pipeline companies, according to German media reports. Those roles had enraged many Germans even before Russia invaded Ukraine last week.
-More than one million people have fled Ukraine since Russian forces invaded the country last week, the head of the United Nations refugee agency has said.
-Russia further elevated concerns about global catastrophe as on Tuesday its "nuclear submarines sailed off for drills in the Barents Sea and mobile missile launchers roamed snow forests" in Siberia just days after Russian President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine and put his nation's nuclear forces on "special alert." Anti-nuclear campaigners who have condemned the Russian leader's actions over the past week also blasted the military exercises that Russia's Northern Fleet said were designed to "train maneuvering in stormy conditions," according to the Associated Press.
-Germany is considering supplying 2,700 anti-aircraft missiles to Ukraine as it seeks to defend itself against an invasion by Russia, a government source said on Thursday. German news agency DPA reported earlier that the economy ministry had approved supplying the Soviet-made Strela missiles, part of the inventories of the former German Democratic Republic’s army.
-A second round of talks is reportedly to get under way on Thursday. A Russian negotiator said a ceasefire is on the agenda, but Ukraine has said Moscow’s demands are unacceptable
-With all eyes on the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, President Biden’s top Asia official on the National Security Council said Monday that the US can still focus on increasing its "engagement" in the Asia Pacific to counter China. According to Reuters, Kurt Campbell, the Indo-Pacific coordinator on the National Security Council, pointed out that the US has been deeply engaged in two theaters simultaneously before, including during World War II and the Cold War.
-The European Commission has proposed to grant temporary protection to people fleeing war in Ukraine, including a residence permit and access to employment and social welfare.
-Russia has been turfed out of the indexes used by many fund managers to decide where to invest after provider MSCI declared the country “uninvestable”. The decision is likely to result in the wholesale dumping of Russian shares by western investors.
-Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said today that if a third World War were to take place, it would be “nuclear” and “destructive.” Lavrov made the comments after an escalation in tensions following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine that led to Moscow putting its nuclear forces on high alert. The Foreign Minister said that Russia would face “real danger” if Kiev were allowed to obtain nuclear weapons. As we previously highlighted, Russian TV host Dmitry Kiselyov , dubbed “Putin’s chief propagandist,” previously bragged about how “our submarines can shoot more than 500 nuclear warheads.” “This would guarantee destruction of the USA, and all other NATO countries,” he added. Some voices have been lobbying NATO powers to impose a no fly zone over Ukraine, a move that would inevitably lead to Russian planes being shot down and risk the onset of World War III.
-An EU plan to send fighter jets to Ukraine appears to be falling apart as each country that was reportedly going to deliver the planes is now denying involvement. The plan announced Monday by EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrel was meant to give Ukraine old Russian-made MiG-29 and Su-24 fighter jets, which Ukraine’s pilots are already trained to fly. Poland, Bulgaria, and Slovakia were reportedly lined up to transfer the planes, but officials from each country denied the plan. "Slovakia will not provide fighter jets to Ukraine," the Slovak Foreign Ministry told Newsweek on Tuesday.
-The Russian Federation Council is set to hold an unscheduled meeting on Friday, leading to widespread speculation in Moscow that the country might impose martial law. The introduction of martial law would give the authorities sweeping powers to limit freedom of movement and freedom of speech. Martial law has been introduced in modern Russia. Tatyana Stanovaya, a prominent Russian political analyst and founder of R.Politik on Wednesday evening tweeted that introducing a martial law would be a “logical scenario.” The Federation Council said it will officially discuss on Friday a package of anti-crisis measures in response to Western sanctions. Over 6,500 Russians have so far been detained across Russia during anti-war protests, according to the independent monitoring site OVD-Info. The Duma is also set to meet on Friday to discuss a new law that would punish “spreading disinformation about the armed forces of the Russian Federation in any military conflicts” with up to 15 years in prison.
-Senior Chinese officials told senior Russian officials in early February not to invade Ukraine before the end of the Winter Olympics in Beijing, the New York Times reported, quoting Biden administration officials and a European official who cited a western intelligence report. The New York Times said the intelligence report indicated senior Chinese officials had some level of knowledge about Russia’s plans or intentions to invade Ukraine before Moscow launched the operation last week. A source familiar with the matter confirmed to Reuters that China had made the request but declined to provide details. The source declined to be identified due to the sensitivity of the matter.
-The Biden administration is considering ways to reduce US consumption of Russian oil to punish Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine, White House Deputy National Security Adviser Daleep Singh said during an interview with CNN on Wednesday.
-Footage has emerged on social media showing a group of children detained by Moscow police after demonstrating against the Russian invasion of Ukraine. In a video posted to Facebook by Alexandra Arkhipova, a young girl is seen in tears holding a woman’s hand from behind bars.
-Ekho Moskvy radio station, one of Russia’s last remaining liberal media outlets, has been dissolved by its board after coming under pressure over its coverage of the war in Ukraine, its editor said on Thursday.
-Ukrainian diplomats formerly based in Moscow arrived in Latvia on Wednesday evening, Latvia’s foreign minister said.
*** PROPOGANDA ***
-Photos show smouldering Russian convoy destroyed by Ukrainian resistance as Putin’s Kyiv siege stalls.
-The Russian Federal Security Service leaked information that alerted Ukraine to an assassination plot against president Volodymyr Zelenskiy, according to the cyber-hacking collective Anonymous. In a recently published tweet, the group said: Russian FSB leaked information alerted Ukraine to assassination plot against President @ZelenskyyUa. Now, we can expect an internal power struggle within the Kremlin to overthrow the Putin regime. In the meantime, let’s continue with the attacks,” the tweet read. Anonymous also claimed responsibility for taking down the Russian Space Agency website for a second time.
-More than 350 Ukrainian civilians have been killed and more than 2,000 injured, according to Ukraine’s emergency service.
-Ukraine claimed nearly 7,000 Russian troops had been killed in the first six days of Moscow’s invasion
-Russia’s defence ministry said 498 Russian soldiers had died in Ukraine since the start of its campaign,
its first statement on casualties.
-The Russian military is a “ruthless invading force” which poses a danger immediately to Ukraine, but also to “wider Europe and the world”. Damian Hinds, the UK’s security minister, told Sky News
-The Ukrainian military claims Russian troops have been “unsuccessful in almost all directions in which they were advancing”, according to an operational update published this morning.
-CBS News Does Story About Transphobia in Ukraine as Bombs Fall on Country.
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