*** MILITARY SITUATION ***
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 20 as of 3:00 pm EST
March 20th Maps of Russian Operations:
The Ukrainian General Staff reported for the first time that the Kremlin is preparing its population for a “long war” in Ukraine and implementing increasingly draconian mobilization measures. The General Staff reported the Russian military commissariats of the Kuban, Primorsky Krai, Yaroslavl Oblast, and Ural Federal Districts are conducting covert mobilization measures but are facing widespread resistance. The General Staff reported the Russian PMC Wagner Group will facilitate the transport of Libyan fighters from LNA leader Khalifa Haftar’s forces to Ukraine. The General Staff reported universities in the DNR and LNR are conscripting students above the age of 18 and that most units in the DNR’s 1st Army Corps are comprised of the “mobilized population,” rather than trained soldiers, and face low morale and equipment shortages. The Ukrainian Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) additionally reported on March 20 that Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu signed an order to prepare to admit Unarmiya (Russian Youth Army, a Kremlin-run military youth organization) personnel aged 17-18 to fight in Ukraine on March 15. The GUR further reported Colonel General Gennady Zhidko, head of the Russian Military-Political Directorate, is in charge of executing the order. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on March 19 that Russian officials “severely reprimanded” the head of the 652nd unit of Information and Psychological Operations for his “weak efforts” and inability to create a “Kherson People's Republic."
Russian forces face mounting casualties among officers and increasingly frequent desertion and insubordination. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense reported on March 19 that “some [Russian] naval infantry units” (unspecified which, but likely referring to Eastern Military District units deployed to the fighting around Kyiv) have lost up to 90% of their personnel and cannot generate replacements. The Ukrainian General Staff reported at noon local time on March 20 that Ukrainian forces wounded the commander of the 346th Independent Spetsnaz Brigade and claimed that Ukrainian forces killed the commanders of the 331st VDV Regiment, 247th VDV Regiment, and the 6th Tank Regiment (90th Tank Division, CMD) at unspecified times and locations. The General Staff reported the Russian Black Sea Fleet is replacing 130 insubordinate soldiers in the 810th Naval Infantry Brigade with paratroopers from the 7th Airborne Assault Division – a measure highly likely to cause greater unit cohesion problems. The General Staff additionally reported that Russian forces are increasingly using ”outdated and partially defective equipment” to replace combat losses.
The Ukrainian MoD reported that forced mobilization in the DNR has demoralized Russian proxy forces, with many refusing to fight and accusing Russian leadership of forcing them into combat to find Ukrainian troop positions. The Ukrainian Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported the number of insubordinate Russian personnel who are refusing combat orders is “sharply increasing” in the Kherson and Mykolayiv oblasts on March 20.[8] The Ukrainian General Staff reported the Russian military commandant office in Belgorod City is investigating 10 Russian servicemen of 138th Motor Rifle Brigade who refused to continue fighting in Kharkiv and agitated for other Russian servicemen to abandon their posts.[9]
Ukrainian military intelligence (the GUR) reported on March 20 that another group of mercenaries connected with Yevgeny Prigozhin and the “League”/Wagner Group began arriving in Ukraine on March 20.[10] The GUR claimed this group aims to eliminate Ukraine’s top military and political leadership, including Volodymyr Zelensky, Andriy Yermak, and Denys Shmyhal. The GUR claimed Russia is turning to assassination plans due to the failure of Russian conventional operations.
-The Ukrainian General Staff reported for the first time that the Kremlin is preparing its population for a “long war” in Ukraine and implementing increasingly draconian mobilization measures, including deploying youth military organization members aged 17-18.
-Ukrainian forces reportedly killed three Russian regimental commanders in the last 24 hours.
-Russia’s Wagner Group will likely facilitate the deployment of Libyan fighters to Ukraine.
-Russian forces are digging in to positions around Kyiv, including the first reports of the war of Russian forces deploying minefields.
-Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian assault on Izyum, southeast of Kharkiv, and inflicted heavy casualties.
-Russian forces continued their slow advance into Mariupol but did not achieve any major territorial gains.
-Ukrainian forces launched further localized counterattacks around Mykolayiv.
-Russia has struck Ukraine with cruise missiles from ships in the Black Sea and Caspian Sea, and launched hypersonic missiles from Crimean airspace, the Russian defence ministry said.
-The UK’s ministry of defence has just released its latest intelligence report, saying Russian forces are advancing from Crimea are still attempting to circumvent Mykolaiv as they look to drive west towards Odesa. “These forces have made little progress over the past week,” the report adds. “Russian naval forces continue to blockade the Ukrainian coast and to launch missile strikes on targets across Ukraine.
-An attack on marine barracks in the southern Ukrainian city of Mykolaiv on Friday killed more than 40 marines, according to the New York Times. If confirmed, it would be one of the deadliest known attacks on Ukrainian forces during the war.
*** ECONOMIC & POLITICAL ***
-US President Joe Biden will travel to Poland this week to discuss international efforts to support Ukraine and “impose severe and unprecedented costs on Russia” for its invasion, the White House has said. The discussions will follow Biden’s meetings in Brussels, Belgium with Nato allies, G7 leaders, and European Union leaders.
-The United States could broaden its sanctions against Russia, including reaching “the commanding heights of the Russian economy” US deputy national security adviser Daleep Singh has said. In an interview with CBS’ 60 Minutes, Singh said: We can broaden our sanctions. Take the measures, take the sanctions we’ve already applied, apply them in more targets. Apply them to more sectors. More banks, more sectors that we haven’t touched.” Asked what that might entail, Singh said: “Well, the commanding heights of the Russian economy. It’s mostly about oil and gas, but there are other sectors too. I don’t want to specify them, but I think Putin would know what those are.”
-Eleven Ukrainian political parties have been suspended because of their links with Russia, according to Zelenskiy. The country’s national security and defence council took the decision to ban the parties from any political activity. Most of the parties affected were small, but one of them, the Opposition Platform for Life, has 44 seats in the 450-seat Ukrainian parliament.
-The Chinese ambassador to the United States has denied China had sent weapons and ammunition to support Russia’s war in Ukraine and that Beijing would “do everything to de-escalate the crisis”. Ambassador Qin Gang said any reports that Beijing may provide military assistance to Russia was “disinformation” and Beijing was sending humanitarian aid to help those affected by the conflict. In an interview with CBS on Sunday, Qin Gang said: What China is doing is sending food, medicine, sleeping bags and baby formula, not weapons and ammunition to any party, and we are against the war.” Gang said that public condemnation by the west “doesn’t help” and that “good diplomacy” was needed.
-Joe Biden’s ambassador to the United Nations warned on Sunday there was little immediate hope of a negotiated end to the war in Ukraine, as pressure continued to build on the US president ahead of a crucial Nato summit in Europe this week. Linda Thomas-Greenfield was reacting on CNN’s State of the Union to an interview with Volodymr Zelenskiy in which the Ukrainian president told the same network only talks would end the war and its devastating toll on civilians.
-On Sunday, Turkey said that Russia and Ukraine had made progress on their negotiations (ostensibly the same negotiations which, if they fail, could lead to World War 3 according to Zelensky) to halt the invasion and that the two warring sides were close to an agreement. “It’s not easy to negotiate while the war is ongoing, or to agree when civilians are dying. But I want to say that there is momentum,” Turkey Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said from the southern Turkish province of Antalya, AFP reported. "We see that the parties are close to an agreement." Cavusoglu this week visited Russia and Ukraine as Turkey, which has strong bonds with the two sides, has tried to position itself as a mediator. The foreign minister, who hosted his peers from Russia and Ukraine this week, said Turkey was in contact with the negotiating teams from the two countries but he refused to divulge the details of the talks as "we play an honest mediator and facilitator role." In an interview with daily Turkish newspaper Hurriyet, presidential spokesman Ibrahim Kalin said the sides were negotiating six points: Ukraine's neutrality; disarmament and security guarantees; the so-called "de-Nazification"; removal of obstacles on the use of the Russian language in Ukraine; the status of the breakaway Donbas region; and the status of Crimea, annexed by Russia in 2014.
-Ukraine rejects deadline to surrender Mariupol. Russia’s ministry of defence earlier set a 5am deadline for the embattled city of Mariupol to surrender. “Lay down your arms,” Colonel-General Mikhail Mizintsev, the director of the Russian national defence management centre, said on Sunday in a briefing. “A terrible humanitarian catastrophe has developed. All who lay down their arms are guaranteed safe passage out of Mariupol.” Mizintsev added that local officials would face a “military tribunal” if they didn’t agree to the surrender terms. However Ukraine has rejected the proposal with deputy prime minister Iryna Vereshchuk saying that there can be “no question” of surrender.
-New Zealand says it will provide Ukraine with a further NZ$5 million ($3.46 million) in funds and non-lethal military assistance including some surplus equipment.
-An ammonia leak at a chemical plant in the northeastern Ukrainian city of Sumy is affecting an area within a 2.5km radius of the spill, the city’s mayor has said. Dmytro Zhyvytskyiy said the leak was reported at 4.30am local time at the Sumykhimprom plant in an update posted to his official Telegram this morning He said the area within a 2.5km radius around the plant was hazardous, adding that resident should use shelters and basements for protection and describing ammonia as a “colourless gas with a pungent suffocating odour”.
-Ukraine claimed today that its forces had shot dead the deputy commander of Russia's Black Sea Fleet in another significant blow to Vladimir Putin's forces. First rank captain Andrey Paliy, 51, is the only senior naval officer allegedly killed in the war in Ukraine, although Kyiv claims to have slain five army generals. Col Sergei Sukharev, of the 331st Guards Parachute Assault Regiment from Kostroma, was killed on March 18 and Andrei Sukhovetsky, 47, was killed during a special operation by a sniper on March 3.
-Russia's devastating and deadly assault over the past three weeks has forced nearly 10 million people in Ukraine to flee their homes, according to figures released Friday by United Nations organizations. In addition to the more than 3.1 refugees who have fled Ukraine, the Global Protection Cluster (GPC)—a network NGOs, international groups, and U.N. agencies—said Friday that nearly 6.5 million internally displaced persons (IDPs) are now seeking safety within the country's borders. With a population of 44 million, that means nearly a quarter of all Ukrainians are now displaced either inside or out of the country.
-Russia issued a formal maritime warning saying that a number of naval mines that were placed in the Black Sea - allegedly by Ukrainians in efforts to counter Moscow’s invasion - are no longer attached to their anchors and could drift toward the Straits of Bosphorus and the Mediterranean Sea. In a press statement on Saturday, Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) said that Ukrainian naval forces had placed lines of mines near the ports of Odessa, Ochakov, Chernomorsk, and Yuzhny, reported state-run news agency TASS. The FSB said the mines were made in the first half of the 20th century by the Soviet Union. It said the cables that connected the mines to the anchors had broken due to storms, and the mines were now being pushed along by winds and currents and freely drifting in the western Black Sea. The FSB added that it is feasible the mines could float toward Bosphorus and the Mediterranean Sea given the current direction of the currents.
-Russia said it fired a hypersonic aero-ballistic air-to-ground missile for the first time in the three-week invasion of Ukraine, destroying a weapons bunker in the southwestern region of the country, according to Bloomberg. Russian Ministry of Defense spokesman Igor Konashenkov told a daily briefing that the Kh-47M2 Kinzhal (also known as "dagger") hypersonic missile struck an underground warehouse containing rockets and ammunition in the village of Deliatyn in the Ivano-Frankivsk region on Friday.
-IEA said Western economies could reduce daily oil demand by 2.7 million barrels within four months by restricting how people drive, indicating the move to reduce highway speed could almost offset the 3 million barrel-a-day loss of Russian production for April.
-After a surge in COVID cases caused by the BA.2 Omicron sub-variant, Austria is set to re-impose mask mandates that were dropped just two weeks ago.
-The governor of Ukraine’s southern Mykolaiv region said rescue work was ongoing at the site of an air strike on a facility where Ukrainian soldiers had been sleeping. Speaking on national television, governor Vitaliy Kim said the attack took place on Friday but gave no further detail about the location or the number of possible casualties. Local media reported the strike hit a barracks in the regional capital, Reuter reports.
-Poland has proposed that the EU implement a total ban on trade with Russia, the country’s prime minister, Mateusz Morawiecki, said.
-The southern city of Zaporizhzhia entered a 38-hour curfew beginning at 1400 GMT on Saturday (1600 local time) after the Ukrainian military ordered people to stay home until early on Monday.
-Ukraine may not produce enough crops to export if this year’s sowing season is disrupted by Russia’s invasion, the presidential adviser Oleh Ustenko has said.
-Russia’s space agency has rejected western media reports suggesting Russian cosmonauts joining the International Space Station (ISS) wore wear yellow suits with a blue accents in support of Ukraine. “Sometimes yellow is just yellow,” Roscosmos’ press service said on its Telegram channel. “The flight suits of the new crew are made in the colours of the emblem of the Bauman Moscow State Technical University, which all three cosmonauts graduated from ... To see the Ukrainian flag everywhere and in everything is crazy.”
-The CCP continued to ease lockdown restrictions on Shenzhen over the weekend as the municipal government claimed that the spread of COVID in the city is "overall controllable." Shenzhen's municipal government said it would resume normal operations and production, according to a notice posted to its WeChat account on Friday. As factories reopen, citywide bus and subway services will also resume, according to the notice, which said the reopening would be effective starting March 21 through March 27. The city's COVID situation is still grim, but it's overall controllable, according to the notice. The move follows a partial lift of restrictions for five districts of Shenzhen on Friday, as President Xi Jinping said.
-Slovenia will send its diplomats back to Kyiv soon, according to prime minister Janez Janša. “They are volunteers. We are working to make EU do the same. Ukraine needs direct diplomatic support,” he said.
-One of Europe’s largest metallurgical plants, the the Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol, has been destroyed by the Russians, Vadym Denysenko, adviser to Ukraine’s interior minister, said.
-Thousands of residents of Mariupol have been forcibly deported to Russia, and then sent by rail to various economically depressed cities where they have to remain, Ukraine’s human rights ombudsman has claimed.
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