*** MILITARY SITUATION ***
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 17 as of 5:30 pm EST
March 17th Maps of Russian Operations:
Russian forces did not make any major advances and Ukrainian forces carried out several local counterattacks on March 17. Russian forces made little territorial progress and continued to deploy reserve elements—including from the 1st Guards Tank Army and 810th Naval Infantry Brigade—in small force packets that are unlikely to prove decisive. Russian forces continue to suffer heavy casualties around Kharkiv, and Russian attempts to bypass the city of Izyum are unlikely to succeed. Russian forces continued assaults on Mariupol on March 17 but did not conduct any other successful advances from Crimea.
Russian forces face mounting difficulties replacing combat casualties and replacing expended munitions. The Ukrainian General Staff stated on March 17 that Russian forces will begin another wave of mobilization for the Donetsk People’s Republic’s (DNR) 1st Army Corps on March 20. Ukrainian intelligence continued to report Russian forces face difficulties manning both combat and support units and increasing desertion rates. The General Staff further reported that Russian forces are increasingly using indiscriminate weapons against residential areas because they used almost their entire supply of “Kalibr” and “Iskander” cruise missiles in the first 20 days of the invasion. It is unclear if the Ukrainian General Staff means Russian forces have used almost all precision munitions earmarked for the operation in Ukraine or almost all missiles in Russia’s total arsenal—though likely the former.
The Ukrainian Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported several details on Russian efforts to recruit Syrian mercenaries on March 17.[5] The GUR reported that the Russian military ordered its base in Hmeimim, Syria to send up to 300 fighters from Syria to Ukraine daily. The GUR additionally reported that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has promised to recruit 40,000 Syrian fighters to deploy to Ukraine. The GUR reported Russian authorities are promising Syrian recruits that they will exclusively act as police in occupied territories. Finally, the GUR reported low morale among Syrian recruits, including several cases of self-mutilation to avoid being deployed, and claimed many fighters see deploying to Russia and Belarus as an opportunity to desert and migrate to the EU.
-Russian forces continue to make steady territorial gains around Mariupol and are increasingly targeting residential areas of the city.
-Ukrainian forces northwest of Kyiv launched several local counterattacks and inflicted heavy damage on Russian forces.
-Ukrainian forces repelled Russian operations around Kharkiv and reported killing a regimental commander.
-Ukrainian intelligence reports that Russia may have expended nearly its entire store of precision cruise missiles in the first twenty days of its invasion.
-Russian forces deployed unspecified reserve elements of the 1st Guards Tank Army and Baltic Fleet Naval Infantry to northeastern Ukraine on March 17.
-Russia may be parceling out elements of the reserve force that could conduct an amphibious operation along the Black Sea coast to support ongoing assaults on Mariupol, further reducing the likelihood of a Russian amphibious assault on Odesa.
-Ukrainian forces shot down 10 Russian aircraft—including five jets, three helicopters, and two UAVs—on March 16, and Ukrainian forces continue to successfully contest Russian air operations.
-The US has observed that the Russian military is are moving some forces “from the rear to join their advancing elements” and “some of those capabilities are artillery, long-range artillery”, suggesting they “continue to want to conduct a siege of Kyiv”.
-Ukraine troops launched a counteroffensive against stalled Russian forces around Kyiv, the Wall Street Journal reports from the capital. Suburbs and outlying towns like Irpin, Bucha, and Hostomel are where some of the fighting is heating up; but there are also counteroffensives reportedly happening “south and east of the southern port of Mykolayiv, moving in the direction of Kherson, the only Ukrainian regional capital occupied by Russia since the war began,” according to the Journal.
-“Russia does not have the manpower or firepower to encircle the Ukrainian capital, let alone capture it,” former U.S. Army Europe commander Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges wrote Tuesday at the Center for European Policy Analysis. “It is a very large, dense major urban center on the banks of one of Europe’s largest rivers. It is a difficult, complex urban terrain.” “There is no suggestion that the Russians have big units lurking in the woods somewhere (and the Pentagon has said it sees no signs of significant reinforcements.) So it’s apparent that the notional 900,000 strength of the Russian military is a hollow number.” And that presents an opportunity to influence the next tranche of 130,000 conscripts Moscow is expected to call up on April 1. CEPA has more from Hodges, entitled, “The Next 10 Days Will Decide This War.”
-UK defence attache AVM Mick Smeath said: Logistical problems continue to beset Russia’s faltering invasion of Ukraine. Reluctance to manoeuvre cross-country, lack of control of the air and limited bridging capabilities are preventing Russia from effectively resupplying their forward troops with even basic essentials such as food and fuel. Incessant Ukrainian counterattacks are forcing Russia to divert large number of troops to defend their own supply lines. This is severely limiting Russia’s offensive potential.”
-According to available information, the Russian occupiers have already picked up 1,000 volunteers from the so-called army of Bashar al-Assad and Hezbollah,” the ministry of defence said, adding that the main requirement for foreign fighters is the experience of fighting in the city. Officials said they believe the main efforts Russian forces are focused on are maintaining the previously occupied borders and carrying out measures to prepare for a possible attack on Kyiv.
*** ECONOMIC & POLITICAL ***
-CIA paramilitaries had been training Ukrainian forces on the frontlines of the Donbas war against Russian-backed separatists since 2014 and were only pulled out by the Biden administration last month, Yahoo News reported on Wednesday, citing former US officials. The CIA first sent a small number of paramilitaries to eastern Ukraine when the war started in 2014, which was sparked by a US-backed coup in Kyiv and the Donbas separatists declaring independence from the post-coup government. As part of the training, CIA paramilitaries taught Ukrainian forces sniper techniques, how to operate US-provided Javelin anti-tank missiles, and how to avoid being tracked on the battlefield by using covert communications and other means. The former officials said at first the CIA was surprised at the capability of Russia and the separatists compared with US adversaries in the Middle East.
The US military held similar training programs for Ukrainian forces in western Ukraine that have been publicly acknowledged. In January, Yahoo News revealed that the CIA had also been holding a US-based training program for Ukrainian forces. A former CIA official said the US-based program was training "an insurgency" and taught Ukrainians how to "kill Russians." The secret CIA program in eastern Ukraine was much more provocative than the other training programs since it essentially meant the US was involved in a proxy war on Russia’s border. The former officials told Yahoo News that during the first year of the Trump administration, National Security Officials reviewed the program, which had begun under the Obama administration. The CIA paramilitaries were directed to advise and train but not participate in combat. Trump administration officials feared the authorities were too broad and that the mission was too ambiguous. One former official said questions that were asked included: "How far can you go with existing covert action authorities? If, God forbid, they’ve shot some Russians, is that a problem? Do you need special authorities for that?" The former official said that the Trump administration discussed what Russia’s redlines could be and determined the US support for Ukrainian forces fell within historically acceptable bounds.
-Four Russian warships carrying scores of military trucks were seen passing through a strait in Japan yesterday morning - and could be on their way to Ukraine. The Tsugaru Strait between the Sea of Japan and the Pacific Ocean separates Honshu and Hokkaido, the country's two biggest islands.
-Russian government websites are facing unprecedented cyber attacks and technical efforts are being made to filter foreign web traffic, the TASS news agency cited the digital ministry as saying on Thursday. Russian government entities and state-owned companies have been targeted over events in Ukraine, with the websites of the Kremlin, flagship carrier Aeroflot and major lender Sberbank among those to have seen outages or temporary access issues in recent weeks. The ministry was working to adjust to the new conditions, it said, as cyber attacks ratchet up.
-Putin arrests his own military chief for 'leaking' as Russian army suffers heavy losses. General Roman Gavrilov, the deputy chief of Russia's Federal National Guard, has reportedly been detained by the much-feared FSB security service and accused of leaking informati. Reports are emerging that General Roman Gavrilov, the deputy chief of Russia's Rosgvardia unit which was the spearhead of the first push into Ukrainian territory, has been arrested by the feared Federal Security Service of the Russian Federation – The FSB. The reason for Gavrilov’s arrest is not immediately clear. One source quoted by Bellincat’s Christo Grozev say the charge was "wasteful squandering of fuel” while a more serious charge of "leaks of military information that led to loss of life” has also been rumoured.
-The US state department confirmed that a US citizen died in Ukraine today, after local reports that an American was killed during Russian shelling in the northern Ukrainian city of Chernihiv.
-Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison said China would face consequences if it backs Russia’s attack on Ukraine, arguing such a move would be an “abomination” while hinting at new international sanctions for Beijing.
-The US Department of Energy (DOE) said on Wednesday it has issued approvals for additional exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from two major facilities on the US Gulf Coast. The decision aims to help Europe deal with the energy crunch, which has been worsened by the Russia-Ukraine conflict. According to the DOE, around 720 million cubic feet of the supercooled fuel per day will be exported from the Sabine Pass (Louisiana) and Corpus Christi (Texas) terminals to countries that do not have free trade agreements with the US, including all of Europe.
-US president Joe Biden is due to speak with Chinese president Xi Jinping on Friday for the first time since Russia invaded Ukraine more than three weeks ago. The White House signalled that Biden will warn Xi Jinping against bolstering his ally Vladimir Putin in his war mission.
-The Pentagon’s Defense Intelligence Agency reports: “Protracted occupation of parts of Ukrainian territory threatens to sap Russian military manpower and reduce their modernized weapons arsenal, while consequent economic sanctions will probably throw Russia into prolonged economic depression and diplomatic isolation,” Lieutenant General Scott Berrier, director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, said in its new 67-page summary of worldwide threats. The combination of Ukraine’s defiance and economic sanctions will threaten Russia’s “ability to produce modern precision-guided munitions,” Berrier said in testimony submitted to the House Armed Services Committee for a hearing on Thursday.
-UK Defense Secretary Ben Wallace has announced that Lindon will deploy Sky Sabre air defense missile systems in Poland in response to Russia’s attack on Ukraine. “We are going to deploy the Sky Sabre medium-range, anti-air missile system to Poland with about 100 personnel,” Wallace said on Thursday, during a news conference with his Polish counterpart, Mariusz Blaszczak, in Warsaw.
-Pierre Andurand, founder of Andurand Capital Management, has had a turbulent few years (as we have most recently noted here (up 154% in 2020) and here (worst year ever in 2018). And now the energy complex wunderkind sees a path for crude oil to get to $200 by the end of the year as historically tight markets struggle to ramp up production and replace lost supply from Russia. On the latest episode of Bloomberg's Odd Lots podcast, Andurand warns that Russian oil will likely be out of the market even if Putin agrees some sort of imminent ceasefire with Ukraine. “I don't think that suddenly they stop fighting, the oil comes back. It's not going to be the case. The oil’s going to be gone for good,” he said. “We’ll have to live with higher prices to keep demand down, for it to be treated a bit more as a luxury product and also to accelerate the energy transition.” He estimates some 4 million barrels per day have been taken out of circulation as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and subsequent restrictions on doing business with the Putin government. While releasing oil from strategic petroleum reserves could help boost supply in the short-term, it’s likely that the energy industry won’t be able to increase capacity to fully offset the lost barrels.
While overall levels of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is at its lowest level since 2002; in terms of actual days supply, we are very near record lows of just 33 days (based on implied demand),
-Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to discuss negotiations with Ukraine. Putin’s demands include an acceptance by Ukraine that it should be neutral in future, and that it shouldn’t become a member of the western military alliance, Nato. Other demands Putin is making include a “denazification clause” and undertakings to protect the Russian language, according to Erdogan’s chief adviser Ibrahim Kalin. However, Putin is also demanding parts of eastern Ukraine and acceptance from Zelenskiy that Crimea be a permanent part of Russia. According to Putin, this can only be sorted out face-to-face with his Ukrainian opponent.
-There remains a “very big gap” between Ukraine and Russia in peace talks between the two nations, Western officials have said. Reuters quotes an unnamed official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, as saying that both sides are taking peace talks seriously but that there was little sign of an imminent breakthrough.
-US President Joe Biden ramped up his rhetoric against Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday, calling him a “dictator” and a “thug” just a day after declaring him a “war criminal.” The US and its allies are standing together against Putin, who is “a murderous dictator, a pure thug who is waging an immoral war against the people of Ukraine,” Biden declared on Thursday, at the annual Friends of Ireland Luncheon.
-The US president, Joe Biden, will speak with the Chinese president, Xi Jinping, on Friday to discuss Russia’s war against Ukraine “and other issues of mutual concern”, the White House said. The call comes after US officials warned China may have already decided to provide Russia with economic and financial support during its war on Ukraine.
-The UN Security Council will no longer vote on Friday on a Russian-drafted call for aid access and civilian protection in Ukraine as Russia’s UN envoy accused Western countries of a campaign of “unprecedented pressure” against the measure.
-The U.S. is about to send nearly $1 billion in new military aid to Ukraine, White House officials said Tuesday. The funds are expected to come from the $13.6 billion for Ukraine that’s been set aside in the $1.5 trillion omnibus budget bill Biden signed Tuesday. The weaponry reportedly includes Soviet-era air defense systems like SA-8s, SA-10s (aka “S-300”), and SA-14s, a senior U.S. official told CNN on Wednesday. The batch of new U.S. military aid also includes Javelin and Stinger missiles.
-The European Space Agency (ESA) says it has suspended a joint mission with Russia to land a rover on Mars, because of Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.
-An NGO in New York had hundreds of bulletproof vests stolen after they were donated by officers and destined for Ukraine as it battles a Russian invasion, police and the organisation has said. Security-camera footage from a next-door business showed three vans pulling up outside the building, one after another, with men in hoods carrying out boxes believed to be containing the vests and loading them into the vehicles, then driving away, WNBC-TV of New York City reported. The vests were intended to be sent to medical workers and humanitarian aid volunteers in Ukraine, the station reported. “It is despicable that someone would break into a building to steal supplies and materials intended to aid those affected by this humanitarian crisis,” Vicki DiStefano, a spokeswoman for the Suffolk County Sheriff’s Office, which made a large donation of vests last week, told the outlet.
-A Chinese foreign ministry official met with Russia’s ambassador to China on Thursday 17 March to exchange views on bilateral relations, the Chinese foreign ministry said in a statement on Friday, Reuters is reporting. Cheng Guoping, commissioner for foreign affairs and aecurity affairs at China’s foreign ministry, met with Andrey Denisov of Russia and exchanged views on bilateral counter-terrorism and security cooperation, according to the statement.
-Three current and former members of the Tennessee national guard, who were falsely identified in a Russian media report as mercenaries killed in Ukraine, are in fact alive and well, the Tennessee national guard said on Thursday. Joe Biden ordered the withdrawal of US troops from Ukraine prior to Russia’s invasion of the country as part of a broader effort to avoid a direct confrontation with the nuclear-armed adversary. But the report published in Russia’s Pravda newspaper identified the Americans by name and gave military ranks for each of them, citing information from pro-Russian militia in Ukraine’s Donetsk.
-Ukrainian authorities are working to rescue hundreds of civilians trapped in the basement of the Drama Theatre of Mariupol, which had been designated as a shelter for displaced civilians, including children and older people. Pyotr Andryushchenko, an adviser to Mariupol’s mayor, said it was not yet clear how many people survived at the facility, which had been used to shelter up to 1,000 people in recent days.
-Uzbekistan has called for a diplomatic resolution of the conflict in Ukraine and said it would not recognise Moscow-backed separatists in the self-proclaimed republics in Luhansk and Donetsk, Reuters reports. The Uzbek foreign minister, Abdulaziz Kamilov, told parliament that while Uzbekistan wanted to maintain good relations with both Russia and Ukraine, it opposed the war. His remarks signal the strongest anti-war statement to come from Russia’s former Soviet allies so far.
-Belarusian Politician and Journalist Says Explosions Heard On March 16th In Belarus - Both Belarus politician Pavel Latushka and Belarusian journalist Franak Viačorka posted a map saying that popping sounds (explosions) were heard in these Belarusian cities in the evening on March 16th. Franak Viačorka stated, "Today, the residents of 8 Belarusian cities have heard the noises of explosions. Still, there is no information on what it was. At the same time, there are reports of the missile shelling of the Ukrainian city of Sarny, right across the border with the Brest region of Belarus".
-South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, a potential mediator in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, has faulted NATO for triggering war in the former Soviet republic by expanding eastward onto Moscow’s doorstep. “The war could have been avoided if NATO had heeded the warnings from amongst its own leaders and officials over the years that its eastward expansion would lead to greater, not less, instability in the region,” Ramaphosa told South African lawmakers on Thursday.
-The National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine stated on their Facebook page that Ukraine needs to make a defensive alliance with a nuclear armed country, such as the United Kingdom. Secretary of the Republic of Ukraine O. Danilova speech posted on The National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine Facebook page (translated text): "Statement O. Lukashenko, who around his country allegedly hit with a rocket "Point-U" from the territory of Ukraine, is a complete nonsense. We are a civilized nation, we don't kill children and women, we protect our land. According to the data at our disposal, the vast majority of Belarusian military refuse to go to war on the side of the racists. Belarusians see that today the spirit of our army, our society, is huge. In addition, they see how many corpses of Russians and wounded are brought from Ukraine.
-A surge in coronavirus infections in Western Europe has experts and health authorities on alert for another wave of the pandemic in the United States, even as most of the country has done away with restrictions after a sharp decline in cases. Infectious-disease experts are closely watching the subvariant of omicron known as BA.2, which appears to be more transmissible than the original strain, BA.1, and is fueling the outbreak overseas.
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