Russia/Ukraine War Update - March 16th, 2022

*** MILITARY SITUATION ***

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 15 as of 5:30 pm EST

March 15th Map of Russian Operations:

Local company and battalion level attacks by Russian forces northwest of Kyiv on March 14-15 likely indicate the largest-scale offensive operations that Russian forces attempting to encircle Kyiv can support at this time. Russian forces did not conduct offensive operations northeast of the city, around Sumy, and only limited (and unsuccessful) attacks southeast of Kharkiv. Russian force generation efforts, including reservist and conscript call-ups and the ongoing transport of Syrian fighters to Russia and Belarus, are unable to change the balance of forces around Kyiv within the coming week. Russian forces have not conducted simultaneous attacks along their multiple axes of advance across Ukraine since March 4 and are unlikely to do so in the next week.

Russian forces in southeastern Ukraine continue to demonstrate the greatest capabilities to date and are steadily advancing in three directions: northeast from Kherson, taking territory in Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts, and reducing the Ukrainian pocket in Mariupol. Russian forces are unlikely to successfully encircle Mykolayiv and threaten Odesa in the near future but retain uncommitted Naval Infantry reserves that could conduct an amphibious operation or disembark to reinforce Russian ground operations, as Russia has employed Naval Infantry elsewhere. Russia may seek to encircle Zaporizhya by advancing northeast up the west bank of the Dnipro River after failing to break through Ukrainian forces directly south of the city on the east bank. Russian forces are making slow but steady progress against Ukrainian defenders on the line of contact in Donbas and likely seek to force them out of their prepared defensive positions.

With Russian forces likely unable to complete the encirclement of Kyiv or resume mobile offensive operations in northeastern Ukraine in the near future, the Russian capture of Mariupol will likely be the next key inflection in the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Russian forces have successfully encircled Mariupol and are conducting daily assaults on the western and eastern outskirts of the city. Russian air, missile, and artillery strikes continue to target residential areas and civilian infrastructure to force the city to capitulate. Russian forces have encircled the city to a depth that will likely prevent the defenders from breaking out and prevent Ukrainian efforts to relieve the defenders. Russian forces will likely be able to capture Mariupol or force it to capitulate despite strong Ukrainian defenses. The Russian capture of Mariupol will free up Russian forces, likely including large portions of the 8th Combined Arms Army, to threaten Ukrainian defenders along the line of contact in Donbas with encirclement or alternatively reinforce a Russian offensive toward Mykolayiv and Odesa. This assessment assumes that the defenders in Mariupol will run out of ammunition and/or water at some point in the relatively near future. Mariupol has been heavily fortified for years, however, and it is possible that its defenders secured sufficient supplies in advance to hold out longer. The Russians will likely continue to escalate bombardments to the point of simply destroying the city if that appears to be the case, but the reduction of Mariupol in this way could take considerably longer.

-Russian forces continue to face difficulties quickly mobilizing replacements for combat losses but are continuing efforts to leverage conscripts and international troops.

Russian forces are engaged in four primary efforts at this time:

    Main effort—Kyiv (comprised of three subordinate supporting efforts);
    Supporting effort 1—Kharkiv;
        Supporting effort 1a—Luhansk Oblast;
    Supporting effort 2—Mariupol and Donetsk Oblast; and
    Supporting effort 3—Kherson and advances westward.

-Russian forces conducted limited attacks against several towns close to the western bank of the Dnipro River on March 15. Russian forces did not conduct offensive operations east of Kyiv and continued to prioritize improving logistics and reinforcing combat units. Russian forces are unlikely to launch offensive operations to encircle Kyiv larger than the scattered Russian attacks observed northwest of Kyiv targeting Irpin on March 14 and Guta-Mezhyhirska on March 15 within the coming week but may launch further tactical attacks.

-Russian forces are unlikely to launch offensive operations to encircle Kyiv larger than the scattered Russian attacks observed northwest of Kyiv targeting Irpin on March 14 and Guta-Mezhyhirska on March 15 within the coming week but may launch further tactical attacks.

-Russian forces continued to assault Mariupol from the east and west.

-Russian forces did not conduct major offensive operations toward northeastern Kyiv in the past 24 hours.

-Russian forces attempting to encircle Kharkiv continue to face supply shortages, particularly regarding ammunition.

-The Russian military falsely claimed to have captured the entirety of Kherson Oblast on March 15 but did not conduct any major operations toward either Zaporizhya or Mykolayiv.

-Russia is unlikely to launch an unsupported amphibious operation against Odesa until Russian forces secure a ground line of communication to the city, but Russian Naval Infantry retain the capability to conduct a landing along the Black Sea coast.

-Russian forces will likely capture Mariupol or force the city to capitulate within the coming weeks.

-Ukrainian counterattacks and operations by Territorial Defense Forces in northeastern Ukraine threaten Russia’s exposed line of communicating, requiring Russia to redeploy forces away from the offensive toward eastern Kyiv

-A total of 3,000 cyber attacks against Ukrainian targets have been recorded since mid-February, according to Victor Zhora, the deputy chairman of the country’s SSSCIP cyber security agency. Many of the attacks, almost certainly from Russia, have been aimed at knocking out internet service providers and other communications as well as government and financial services in parallel with Moscow’s military offensive, Zhora added. The record number was “275 in a day” Zhora told reporters in a briefing, part of an uptick in hacker attacks seen since before the war started on 15 February. Most were denial of service attacks aimed at preventing a service from functioning.

*** ECONOMIC & POLITICAL ***

-The US Senate has unanimously passed a resolution condemning Russian President Vladimir Putin as a war criminal, a rare show of unity in the deeply divided Congress. The resolution, introduced by Republican Senator Lindsey Graham and backed by senators of both parties, encouraged the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague and other nations to target the Russian military in any investigation of war crimes committed during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

-Ukraine says ‘fundamental contradictions’ in talks with Russia There are “fundamental contradictions” in talks aimed at ending Russia’s military attack on Ukraine but compromise is possible, a member of the Ukrainian delegation and presidential aide has said. 

-The US State Department has been seeking American allies who have Soviet S-300 air defense systems as it explores various options of supplying Ukraine with heavier arms, CNN reported on Tuesday. Last week, a plan to deliver MiG-29 fighter jets from Poland to Ukraine stalled after Washington refused to act as an intermediary in the process. The White House has been increasingly pressured by Congress, which demands Washington supply Kiev with heavier weapons amid the ongoing Russian military action in Ukraine, CNN reported, citing some unnamed sources. “The State Department has been working to identify which countries currently have the Soviet-made S-300 air defense systems and is examining how they could be transferred to Ukraine,” the media outlet reported.

S-300 air defense system.

-Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky criticized NATO on Tuesday, claiming the US-led military bloc is not committed to the Article 5 collective defense clause. Speaking in a video address, the Ukrainian leader claimed that the mutual defense article has never looked “as weak as it is today.” He argued that NATO would likely fail to protect its own members if one came under assault from an adversary, such as Russia. NATO has refused to send troops directly to defend Ukraine, as it is not part of the military alliance, and warned that its involvement would lead to direct confrontation with Russia. Zelensky suggested, however, that the bloc would respond “in the same way” if Russia attacked a member state.

-During a press conference in Kyiv alongside Zelenskiy, the leader of Poland’s ruling party said an international peacekeeping mission should be sent to operate in Ukraine. “I think that it is necessary to have a peace mission - Nato, possibly some wider international structure - but a mission that will be able to defend itself, which will operate on Ukrainian territory,” Jaroslaw Kaczynski said during the conference, which was broadcast on Polish television. “It will be a mission that will strive for peace, to give humanitarian aid, but at the same time it will also be protected by appropriate forces, armed forces,” said Kaczynski, who is seen as the main decision-maker in Poland.

-Development and technology minister Piotr Nowak insisted Russia should be replaced by Poland on the G20 international forum on Monday during a meeting with US trade representative Katherine Tai. The minister followed up his claim with a tweet arguing that “by invading Ukraine, Russia violated the principles of international cooperation, which is a basis for its exclusion from organizations that guarantee international economic and financial stability.” Nowak then called for Russia to be removed not only from the G20 but also the Financial Stability Board, arguing there was “no place for it” on either transnational entity. "As the world's second fastest-growing country over the past 30 years, Poland certainly deserves a place in G20," he said. Poland is the 21st-largest economy in the world, according to the World Bank.

-At 2pm the Fed will hike rates for the first time since December 2018, raising the Fed Funds rate from 0% where it has been since the covid crisis to 0.25%. The widely telegraphed rate hike will be the first of many as the Fed scrambles to contain inflation which has led to a record high, double digit PPI and the highest CPI since the early 1980s, when the Volcker Fed hiked rates as high as 20% to contain galloping inflation.

Another even more momentous event may take place when Russia is due to make two interest payments on its dollar bonds on Wednesday, but it is unclear whether western investors will actually receive their cash in dollars, in devalued rubles, or at all, potentially lining up a uniquely messy government debt default, the first since 1998.

-The number of newly confirmed COVID cases in China has continued to climb Tuesday, as local authorities reported more than 3,000 cases in the locked-down Province of Jilin alone. Across that province, cases have more than tripled from the 895 new cases reported just one day earlier. Meanwhile, on Tuesday, the NHC reported another 3,507 new locally transmitted cases in the rest of the country, more than double the 1,337 reported one day earlier.

-President Biden is expected to announce more than $1b in new military assistance to the Ukraine government as early as Wednesday, according to U.S. officials, as Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy, is expected to make a plea to Congress for more aid to defend his country. The $1.01b is expected to include more of the same kinds of military equipment the U.S. says the Ukrainians need the most: antiarmor and antiair systems, including portable air defenses such as Javelins and Stingers.

-Boris Johnson will be visting Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates on Wednesday to ask the Gulf states to produce more oil and help the UK reduce dependence on Russian oil.

-Oil registered heavy losses Tuesday, building on Monday’s decline, as myriad factors weighed on sentiment, including talks between Russia and Ukraine, a potential slowdown in Chinese demand and unwinding of trades ahead of the Federal Reserve’s expected rate hike on Wednesday. Both West Texas Intermediate crude, the U.S. oil benchmark, and global benchmark Brent crude settled below $100 per barrel Tuesday, a far cry from the more than $130 they fetched just over a week ago. WTI ended the day at $96.44, for a loss of 6.38%. During the session it traded as low as $93.53. Brent settled 6.54% lower at $99.91 per barrel, after trading as low as $97.44. WTI and Brent fell 5.78% and 5.12%, respectively, on Monday.

-White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said on Monday that the possibility of the United States importing oil from Venezuela is “not an active conversation at this time” after US officials met with the Venezuelan government to discuss the matter.

-Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy has acknowledged that Ukraine will not become a Nato member, in a significant concession on a day when Kyiv was pounded by Russian shells and missiles and the invading force tightened its grip on the capital. Zelenskiy made his remarks about Nato while addressing leaders from the new Joint Expeditionary Force, a UK-led initiative bringing together 10 north Atlantic countries to create a capability for responding rapidly to crises. “It is clear that Ukraine is not a member of Nato; we understand this,” the Ukrainian president said. “For years we heard about the apparently open door, but have already also heard that we will not enter there, and these are truths and must be acknowledged.”

-The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) alliance has sent 35,000 troops, 50 ships, including a nuclear attack submarine and 200 aircraft to Norway, which borders Russia for military drills.

-Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy has pleaded for Canada and its allies to do more to stop the Russian invasion of his country, including establishing a no-fly zone.

-Russia is reportedly legalizing piracy by issuing a decree this week allowing businesses to steal patents from anyone in its list of 'unfriendly nations' and stating that unauthorized use of the patents will not be compensated.

-The US will be giving Ukraine over $186mn in additional aid to support refugees fleeing the country and displaced within Ukraine amid Russia’s ongoing invasion, said US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, reports Reuters.

-A second Fox News journalist, Oleksandra “Sasha” Kuvshynova, was killed in Ukraine during the same attack that killed Fox News cameraman Pierre Zakrzewsk and left Fox News correspondent Benjamin Hall wounded, confirmed the network today.

-Saudi Arabia is in active talks with Beijing to price its some of its oil sales to China in yuan, according to the WSJ. According to the report, the talks with China over yuan-priced oil contracts have been off and on for six years but have accelerated this year as the Saudis have grown increasingly unhappy with decades-old U.S. security commitments to defend the kingdom. The Saudis are angry over the U.S.’s lack of support for their intervention in the Yemen civil war, and over the Biden administration’s attempt to strike a deal with Iran over its nuclear program. Saudi officials have said they were shocked by the precipitous U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan last year. China buys more than 25% of the oil that Saudi Arabia exports, and if priced in yuan, those sales would boost the standing of China’s currency, and set the Chinese currency on a path to becoming a global petroyuan reserve currency.

-Ukraine will respond “harshly and promptly” to any unfriendly gestures, including Israel’s decision to suspend the visa-free regime and demand electronic permits of Ukrainians wishing to enter the country, President Volodymyr Zelensky’s chief of staff said on Tuesday. Andrey Yermak thanked Israel for its peacemaking efforts, but said Tel Aviv’s decision to restrict entry to refugees was “surprising.” Kiev will respond to “any steps that harm the interests of Ukraine and Ukrainians,” he said. “I will remind all our partners: your peoples have long and clearly shown and said what you need to do. See and hear your constituents. They made their choice. They support Ukraine. They are with us. And you?” Yermak wrote on Facebook, in Ukrainian. Yermak’s comments came after Tel Aviv announced that Ukrainians visiting the country would need to declare if they have an invitation from an Israeli citizen and wait for permission to enter. On Sunday, Interior Minister Ayelet Shaked said any Ukrainians with friends and family in Israel will be allowed to enter as refugees until the end of the conflict, but only a limited number of those without ties to the country would be admitted.

-Even if Russia succeeds in its invasion of Ukraine and achieves a conventional defeat of the country’s armed forces, the war won’t end there, said a current member of the Ukrainian special forces. Instead, he said, a violent and organized struggle will continue, led by the most secretive branch of the Ukrainian military. Experts and a Pentagon source see the path forward in similar terms: Even if the Kremlin defeats the Ukrainian military, a brutal guerrilla war will ensue. And given the country’s borders with key allies and a well-trained, secretive force ready to carry out insurgent activities, the war could continue indefinitely.

-President Vladimir Putin signed a law on Monday allowing foreign-owned aircraft to be re-registered as Russian for domestic use, according to state-run news agency TASS. Russian airlines would have the ability to seize and operate aircraft leased by companies that are no longer operating in the country over sanctions imposed due to the Ukraine invasion, TASS reported. Russian airlines have almost 780 leased jets, with 515 leased from abroad. The new law, part of Russia’s measures to combat the sanctions, says it aims “to ensure the uninterrupted functioning of activities in the field of civil aviation.”

-The Italian army issued an order for its territorial units to boost training “oriented towards warfighting” referring to the “well-known” international events, Lorenzo Tondo reports. The order, released in a note and dated 9 March, cites also the “need to maintain the highest levels of efficiency of all tracked vehicles, helicopters and artillery systems”.

-MPs from across the continent have voted to expel Russia from the Council of Europe over the invasion of Ukraine in a further sign of the Kremlin’s estrangement from the western democratic order. The vote has huge symbolic value, although is also something of a formality, after Russia announced earlier on Tuesday that it was quitting Europe’s leading human rights organisation, effectively jumping before it was pushed.

-Russia on Tuesday sanctioned US President Joe Biden, Secretary of State Tony Blinken, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, and ten other administration officials and political figures. Moscow has said that the sanctions are a reciprocal measure, imposed after Washington blacklisted top Russian leaders, including President Vladimir Putin.

The Russian Foreign Ministry also sanctioned over 300 Canadian individuals in response to a similar move by the Canadian government. Delivered on Tuesday in response to what it calls the “outrageous hostility of the current Canadian regime,” Moscow’s sanctions list includes Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. The list also includes the ministers of foreign affairs and national defense, and most of the deputies of the House of Commons of the Canadian Parliament.

-The US is damaging the Russian economy to stop its military attack against Ukraine, but the government is not commenting on the more radical calls from Kiev, like the reported suggestion of blocking Russian trade ships from using international waters, US Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo indicated during an interview with CNBC on Monday.

-CNBC's Kayla Tausche tweeted that NATO leaders are discussing holding an extraordinary meeting in Brussels late next week which US President Biden and other heads of state would attend, according to officials, but added it is not yet final.

-More than 600 buildings have been destroyed in the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv since the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the city’s mayor, Ihor Terekhov, said.

-A woman who interrupted a live news programme on Russian state TV last night to protest against the war in Ukraine has been fined 30,000 roubles (£215) by a Russian court. Marina Ovsyannikova, a Russian television producer, was found guilty of flouting protest legislation, the Russian state news agency RIA reported.

-The US Pentagon released more updates on the war in Ukraine as the US defense secretary, Lloyd J Austin III, and his team travel to the Nato headquarters in Europe.

 -The US president, Joe Biden, will travel to Brussels next week to meet the leaders of the Nato alliance and the European Commission. The White House press secretary Jen Psaki said Biden would attend the Nato summit on 24 March to discuss ongoing deterrence and defence efforts related to Russia’s invasion and reaffirm the United States’s “ironclad commitment” to the alliance.

-More than 3 million people have fled Ukraine since the Russian invasion began, according to the United Nations. According to the UN refugee agency (UNHCR), 3,000,381 people have left the country since 24 February, a total it expects to rise to at least 4 million.

-Ukrainian presidential adviser said Russia's territorial claims are unacceptable and Ukraine is ready to continue negotiations on remaining issues, while the adviser added that a peace agreement could be signed within 1-2 weeks at the earliest and May at the latest, according to CCTV.

-The prime ministers of Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovenia took a perilous journey by train to meet Volodymyr Zelenskiy in Kyiv as pre-dawn Russian shelling killed more civilians in an apartment building in Ukraine’s capital. On their arrival, a photograph of the leaders studying a map of Ukraine in a wood-panelled room in an undisclosed location was published by the Czech and Polish leaders, Petr Fiala and Mateusz Morawiecki, as they sat around a table with Slovenia’s Janez Janša. Morawiecki tweeted: “It is here, in war-torn Kyiv, that history is being made. It is here, that freedom fights against the world of tyranny. It is here that the future of us all hangs in the balance. EU supports Ukraine, which can count on the help of its friends - we brought this message to Kyiv today.” As the Polish, Czech and Slovenian prime ministers arrived by train in the embattled city on Tuesday in a symbolic show of European solidarity, Kyiv’s mayor, Vitali Klitschko, said it faced “a difficult and dangerous moment”. After repeated bombardments and almost encircled by Russian forces, about half of Kyiv’s 3.5 million pre-war residents have fled, officials have said, with many of those who remain spending their nights sheltering in underground stations.

-Russian Kremlin says that work is continuing between the Russian and Ukraine delegations, does not wish to predict the outcome of talks but it is a positive that talks are continuing.

-US State Department said the US added 11 members of Russia's Defense Enterprise to the anti-Moscow sanctions list, according to Sputnik. Japan imposed sanctions on an additional 17 Russians
    
-Equinor (EQNR NO) is to stop trading in Russian oil and oil products, while it will not enter any new trades or engage in the transport of oil and oil products from Russia, but noted will receive for oil cargoes in March as part of pre-invasion commitments.
    
-US Treasury official said Russian sovereign bond default would make it difficult for Russia to find future lenders, increase Moscow's borrowing costs and drain resources, while the official sees limited exposure in the US financial system to Russian sovereign bonds and noted that falling prices of Russian sovereign bonds suggests investors see a high probability of a default and are preparing for alternative payment outcomes.
    
-Yamal-Europe pipeline has suspended flows, via Reuters citing Gascade data; preliminary bids for eastward flows to Poland have emerged; subsequently, gas flows via the Yamal pipeline have reversed and flow eastwards to Poland from Germany, according to Gascade data.

-US President Biden said they will make sure Ukraine has weapons to defend against the invading Russian force, while they will send money and food and aid to save Ukrainian lives.
    
-Ukrainian air force claimed that a Russian drone crossed into Poland before returning to Ukraine and was shot down by air defences.
    
-UK Ministry of Defence said it hadn't seen evidence to support Russian accusations of Ukraine intending to use chemical and biological weapons, while it added that Russia could be planning to use such weapons in a false-flag operation.
    
-ELINT News reported loud explosions in downtown Kyiv, which could be missile strikes.
    
-Russian forces have reportedly taken full control of Kherson, Ukraine.
    
-Ukraine Presidential adviser says Russian forces are not trying to take Kyiv at the moment; additionally, Mykolayiv Governor says the situation in the region is calmer as Russia forces have been pushed back slightly from the regional capital.

-Ukraine authorities have issued a country-wide air raid warning

-Majority of US GOP Senators vowed to not support a new nuclear deal with Iran.
    
-Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov says an agreement on the revival of the Iranian Nuclear deal is on the finishing straight. Meeting with the Iranian Foreign Minister in Moscow
    
-North Korea could conduct a nuclear test before or after the May 10th inauguration day for the incoming South Korean President, according to DongA.

-Pakistan's Foreign Minister rejects the statement from the Indian Defence Minister on the "mistaken missile launch", stating that it is "incomplete".

-Over 100,000 households signed up to the UK government's 'Homes for Ukraine' scheme just a day after it was launched, offering a place to stay for refugees fleeing conflict with Russia. The UK Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities praised the "generosity of the British public." British Prime Minister Boris Johnson called it "fantastic," after the large number of sign-ups caused the website to crash minutes after it went live. The Homes for Ukraine scheme, which began on Monday, gives UK citizens the opportunity to offer to host refugees in their property for a minimum of six months. In return, hosts will be given a £350 ($457.49) "thank you" payment tax free per month.